>> welcome to uber markets, i am matt miller and let's get a quick check on whether market stand. the s&p 500 is up 21 points to 4 250 and the 10-year yield is coming back down so a rversal on both sides for 73 --sides, 4.7329. the bloomberg dollar index coming off but at high relative levels. the bloomberg dollar index at 1274 and oil is dropping.

losing to $84.29, the main thing keeping yields at this elevated level is that concern that the fed will keep rates for higher for longer. >> my gut is the fed raises one more time. why not, it is built into the market and the question is how quickly think -- can they cut and it certainly will not happen before the second half of next year. my fear is that this ticks around for longer than the market expects -- that this ticks around for longer than the market expects. matt: abigail doolittle has more on this unprecedented rise in bond yields. abigail: it is incredible and the idea that we can see more mark -- for more height from the fed, i wouldn't be surprised if there is more than that and the question for cutting, i don't see how that comes into play given the fact that the fed has

not talked about that as all. -- at all. taking a look at yields, look at that huge backup. this is a big upside down world between the two year and the other parts of the curve. that two year yield above 5% and really paving the way for the rest of the curve to go higher and we have had some big names talking about the idea that the 10 year yield is going to go back 5% and some people have been floating double digit numbers, on a tactical chart perspective -- technical chart perspective, i cannot get to a double-digit but you can get to 9% quickly. this backup is extraordinary. this is probably one of the few times, if the only time in history, that you can say the year -- yield. this is the two year yield and the backup is 2.59%. a narrow spread and it shows you how tight things were coming out of the pandemic and now with the fed hiking, hiking, hiking,e

have a massive move in yields. as what this means for credit and junk credit and bonds hit to some degree and if we take a look at jnk, on the year, it is down slightly but you can see this trend is broken and just -- suggesting this trend could come. over the last two years, we are down 20% so that junk bond market is in the bill -- very gilt market -- it is in the bear market. there is all kindsf ideas and the fed is the main one but there are other things to take a look at including the yen, as it goes lower, the bloomberg dollar index, you can see the spread, this is yen weakness, people borrow it and they turn it into other assets. you can't see gdp is lot.

it is really high-yield, it is the only place that you see any gains year to date, whether it is global high-yield, whether it is european high-yield or u.s. corporate high-yield, nowhere else other than chinese aggregates do you see gains year to date. bloomberg's allocate -- bloomberg's abigail doolittle. thank you. liz mccormick joins us now on this run up any we have seen and

-- this run-up in yields we have seen. they continue to get higher and higher. what do you think is going on, the bond vigilante is back? >> i was saying to someone earlier, let's not use that title because it brings its own issues sometimes but i would say in the sense that the bond investors are saying, we, and some conversation and there is too much risk especially in the long end of the treasury market to park our money with you if you don't get more yield, -- compensation. that comes from a lot of what abigail said, they will -- labor market remains strong. adp wish -- was off today and we have a plethora bond supply from the u.s. government that has darted to pick up and will continue to pick up well into

next year and we have the deficit in the fed getting out of the bond building business. i heard ray dalio on tv with you saying inflation will stay sticky around 3.5% and that adds to you when a higher yield at the long end of the market and it is coming together. matt: do you have any sense that some of this at least is driven by the fact that we are looking at $1.5 trillion deficits? clearly, congress is in no place to do anything about that. we are looking at a $33 trillion debt marching a lot quicker than anyone expected to maybe 50 trillion by the end of the decade? that is terrifying. do bond markets think in these big picture terms? liz: i think so. in years past, maybe i had been the one writing about deficits and people say chill out but now

i think the dynamics have changed. the trajectory is top -- troublesome plus, we have talked about the issue, usually you get such deficit situation in a recession and the government is trying to help us get out that and now we do have growth. it is snowing but we have growth and we had the speaker of the house ousted. we got a temporary deal so we did not have a government shutdown. there is nothing on the radar from washington politicians right now for cuts and -- in spending, raises in taxes. the fed breaking their policy rate to 822 year high, -- 2a22 your hide, --to a 22 year high. they have to pay up more and more to service the debt so i think the treasury market

investors globally have taken notice and you brought up the boj, rates are brought have gotten higher. there are better options. matt: thanks so much for joining us, liz mccormick talking to us about the right situation and let's bring in wells fargo bank macro strategist eric nelson to talk about his take on this. what do you think is behind the drive higher and can yields go higher from here? erik: you have to keep in mind the move is almost entirely in real yields so it is not necessarily sticky and traced -- inflation where people want to get protected from the move, we are seeing the opposite. there are couple things going on. part of the issue, we broke key technical levels, we are in this sea of unknown levels. what is the right price for

r-star? no one has a great idea and another problem is talking to investors, a lot of them are happy to miss the first 15-20 basis points of rally. -- of a rally as opposed to getting caught up and catching the following knife. we haven't had that catalyst yet. it could be the jobs number friday, certainly possible in adp is not a great signal one way or the other in terms of its reliability so i think we will have to wait for that number. matt: if you get a strong jobs number and continue to see this low unemployment, erik, i think that is more i mission for the fed to raise rates and it has already been priced in the market, you -- do you expect it to go in november? erik: the key message from powell's last press conference was the use of the work

carefully, which was used around 15 times. the notion that the fed wants to see above trend growth, to actually keep-, i am not sure they will see that and if you see a 250 number on jobs, that probably calls for a hike but there is enough for a lack of ace -- a consensus that 175 won't drive a fed hike especially if the employment rate keeps taking --ticking off. matt: how much do you think this bond market selloff is a reaction to spending that looks out of control? you can kind of understand running $3 trillion deficits during the pandemic. we cut it down to 1.4 choi in dollars last year -- 1.4 choi in dollars last year -- $1.4

trillion last year. erik: what is funny about this narrative and this move, me and others have been making this argument, we are watching for risk premia, turn premia. we had a regime shift in inflation and deficits. all these horses have been in place for a wild and for whatever races -- all these deficits have been in place for a while and for whatever reason -- we have seen a complete opposite, hard to know exactly why it flipped but i do think that all these forces are in place and we are still bullish on bonds. we think at these levels you should want to be scaling in to both tips and two normals. --to nominal's. it is difficult to sit here and

go all in when we are in limbo from a technical perspective but we are bullish on u.s. fixed income. matt: thanks so much for joining us, wells fargo bank macro factors eric nelson talking to us about the run-up in yields and we are awaiting president biden who is set to discuss his plan to cancel more than $9 billion in student debt loans. he will discuss the ousting of kevin mccarthy as this weaker of the house and we will discuss the state of d.c. aswell as our next guest. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: this is member market and i am mat iller and we are

still awaiting president biden and he is going to nunce his plan $9 billion in student debt loans. he made discuss the ouster of kevin mccarthy as speaker of the house. we will start with that, eight republicans voted to throw out mccarthy and all of the democrats voted to throw him out and it looks like the democrats are punishing kevin mccarthy for being bipartisan and receiving -- reaching across the aisle and making a deal and they know they will get someone in his place who will not make a deal. the government will be shut down next time? >> you said it well. there is something to be said. there is no clarity as to who will be the next speaker of the house and we know that the majority leader steve scalise will run and we know jim jordan

will run. it will take some time and there will probably be a number of lengthy votes that we have to live through but most importantly for me and our clients, it is hard to believe that they will use this time wisely to advance all of the spending bills they want to advance a we can finally get to the negotiating table and craft a deal to fund the government behind the november 17 deadline and that is the deadline we should care about because without a deal before then, the governmenwill shut down and we know what happens. matt: is there any hope that there will be an adult in the room that will slow down what has to be described as one way spending at the federal level here because the only people who seem to be able to do anything about it, which shutdown the government and listen -- and let's listen to president biden. pres. biden: i will be very brief. the house, will now organize and

select a new speaker and i know it will take time but i will remind everyone, we have a lot of work to do and the american people expect us to get it done and the argument we reached was about what comes next. we had an agreement over the weekend. funds for government another 40 days and we cannot and should not be faced with the 11th hour decision with brinksmanship that threatens to shut down the government. we know what we have to do and we have to get it done in a timely fashion and we need to change the poisonous atmosphere in washington. we have strong disagreements but we need to stop seeing each other as enemies and we need to talk and listen to one another. we can do that. i have joined with the minority we're -- we're talking --

minority leader hakeem jeffries. we are prepared to do it as well. for the good of the american people and twice in the last six months, both houses came together on a bipartisan basis. once to -- while we should never have been in that situation in the first place, i am grateful that leaders on both sides came together including former speaker mccarthy to do the right thing and turning to student debt relief. when i ran for president, i vowed to stakes --fix our broken student loan program because while a college degree is the ticket to be better life, that ticket has become expensive. americans have been saddled with unsustainable debt. since my administration -- as quickly as possible, that starts with making sure the existing system works.

and the way it was supposed to work or student borrowers -- work for student borrowers, we fix what was called the public service loan forgiveness program which was designed to make school teachers, firefighters and over -- and other public service can get there -- other public servants can get student loans paid. that program had been in place for nearly 15 years and because o red tape, only 7000 borrowers had been helped. today, thanks to reforms, more than 700,000 borrowers have their debts forgiven. i spoke with tonya and chad, a married couple in their 50's who worked in public high schools in milwaukee for years they paid $800 a month toward their student loans and that meant they cannot put any money away for retirement and things to fix

his we may for the debt relief program for people in public service, the remaining balance of forgiven. tonya said, "the amount of relief this gives us is endocrine -- is indescribable." they can finally save us -- save for retirement. if you have an undergraduate loan, after 20 years of straight paying, whatever is left in your loan is forgiven after 20 years. because of administrative failures, some people who did pay their loans for 20 years or more did not get the debt relief they aren't. --earned. we fixed that and make sure they get every single -- my administration has approved an additional $9 billion of relief for $120,000 in that program --

41 20,000 borrowers and eight -- relief for 120,000 borrowers in that program. this relief is life-changing for individuals and their families. it is good for the economy, by frame americans from the burden of student debts, they can get their lives in order. this matters and matters for daily lives. the latest progress builds on other steps we have taken. we made the largest increase in pell grants over the last decae, helping students and families making less than $60,000 a year get to college. before i took office, student borrowers had paid no more than 10% of their discretionary income on a monthly basis if they wanted to do it that way. under my administration's plan,

which was called safe plan, it reduced it to 5% for undergraduate borrowers. it is the most generous repayment program. . ever. one -- no one will have to pay more than 5% under their discretionary income to repay their loans. you can sign up for the safe plan at studentaid.gov/save. remember, if you keep up your payments after 20 years, whatever is left of those loans is forgiven. we are still not been. last year, i announced a major proposal for student debt relief. we are on the verge of providing more than 40 million americans

from ripple lease from the student debt and the money was literally about to go out the door but republican elected official stepped up and sued us and the supreme court sided with them. that was about to change your lives and i said at the time, i believe the court's decision to strike down the student debt relief program is wrong but i promised i would not give up and since then, my magician has been pursuing a different approach, the higher education act. this satellite dish this act allows the secretary of education to compromise and waive and release loans. they identify specific challenges that borrowers face in the current system so we can move forward with a new rule to address the changes. for many borrowers who made payments for many years, because

of interest, they are more than they originally borrowed. my administration is doing everything it can to deliver student debt relief to as many as we can as fast as we can this is in contrast to house republicans to help block the previous debt relief plan annually shutdown the government over the extreme demands, -- plan and help to shut down the government over the extreme plants -- the men's -- the extreme demands. it was designed to help business owners who lost money which is legitimate, because of the pandemic. members of congress got ov hundreds of thousands of dollars in order because they lost -- their businesses lost money. it was a worthy program. some of the same elected republicans and members of congress were strongly opposed giving relief to students, and gave hundreds of thousands of

dollars for themselves to keep their businesses owner -- open. the hypocrisy of this i find stunning and i supported that program and i support the student debt program. my administration will continue to use every tool at our next -- disposal to help ease student debt. so americans can freely achieve their dreams. it is good for the economy and country and it will change their lives. thank you very much. >> mr. president. speaker mccarthy said the two you -- of you haven't spoken directly at a longtime. why is that? pres. biden: we had two agreements. i assumed he was working -- i knew he was working with the democrats in the house and senate. it was not for me -- if you want to talk to me, i am available.

the idea that i was going to somehow convince mccarthy to change his view was not reasonable. >> does the disarray of capitol ll affect your -- where you bet you won't deliver at eight that the u.s. promised to ukraine? >> it does not worry me and i know there are majority of people in the house and senate who have said they support funding ukraine. i will be announcing a major speech i will make on the issue and why it is important fote united states and our allies to keep our commitment. >> are you concerned about the rest of your domestic foreign policy initiatives bei n peril because of what we saw yesterday, the dysfunction and chaos in congress on the house i does that concern you -- on the house side, does that concern you?

>> the dysfunction always concerns me and the programs we argued over, we passed bipartisanly. i am not concerned that they will try to undo them although there will be some, i am sure. there are half a dozen or more of extreme maga republicans who oud like to eliminate almost everything i have done but i don't think it will get there. >>if i may, with additional -- withoutaitional funding, how long will the u.s. be able to support you. -- support ukraine? >> you can support ukraine in the next -- there are other means way -- where we may be able to find funding for that but i will not get into that now. >> have you promised president zelenskyy during his visit in the white house that you would

provide the long-range missiles for ukraine? pres. biden: i have spoken with zelenskyy and everything he has asked for, we have worked out. >> can you tell us about the speech you will give, what argument will you make? >> i will make the argument that it is overwhelmingly in the interest of the u.s. that ukraine succeeds in its -- and it is overwhelmingly in our interest, i spent 2.5 years putting together coalitions no one thought to be put together and they strengthened us across the board, not just with ukraine, whether it is japan and south korea whether it is happening with europe itself. it is. to the vast majority of the foreign policy -- it is clear to the vast majority of the foreign policy of left and right, this is a valuable exercise for the u.s. to increase support around

the world. what i do not want to do, we put together 50 nations. supporting ukraine. we have -- we are the organizer of that and i met with, don't hold me with the exact numbers, 17 yesterday in a long conversation and the case i knew the majority -- and made the case i knew the majority of people still support ukraine and the majority of members of congress, democrats and republicans supported it so i don't think gaming ship should get in the way blocking it. >> what is your advice to the next house speaker? [indiscernible] matt: i did not hear his suggestion for the next house speaker but that was president biden talking about the u.s.

congress after kevin mccarthy was thrown out as speaker for the house for making a bipartisan agreement as well as the student debt relief plans that he has. i want to welcome in our bnn audience, they join us up here on bloomberg news and jon erlichman. welcome to the show. great to have you here after listening to president biden there, let's bring in the director of pop -- of the policy isaac boltansky as well as wendi benjamin'sthe chaos in congresss this new proposal for student debt relief, which is only i guess you could say $9 billion, it doesn't seem like very much. it is still spending money.

there is much more money in mortgage debt, why not cancel mortgage debt if you want to help out american people? >> young voters. they are the ones, they are much more likely to support biden for his reelection then they would donald trump, the likely nominee and former president. they are unimpressed so far with joe's handling of things, especially the troubles he had with relieving student debt. it will put more spending in people's hands, they will give relief mostly to young voters, lower income people who he desperately needs to turn out in november, 2024. matt: what was your take away

from the press conference that we just heard? it goes from the overspending discussion we were having earlier. it's a lot easier to overspend when you have kevin mccarthy there, president biden lauded him, why did the democrats throw him out? isaac: when the universe wants to punish you, it gives you exactly what you ask. it will be far more difficult to get any type of compromise done in the house then it was under mccarthy. the odds of a shutdown in november have increased. it will be far more difficult to get any type of compromise regarding one-off policy items. in terms of the student loan side of the equation, it reminds me of the final years of president obama's term that says he will use his phone and pen to

move forward administrative items. this is about younger voters. the higher education act gives him wide latitude and special circumstances through rulemaking to cancel these loans. he's up to about $127 billion in canceled student loan debt, impacting 3.5 million borrowers. it is not the huge splash you wanted through the larger cancellation plan that would've done $400 billion all at once. matt: if the president is urging this end to the poisonous atmosphere in u.s. politics, the increasingly time for the economy, what do you expect the dialogue to look like over these next few days, weeks, at a time where everybody is trying to figure out who becomes the speaker? wendy: the ouster of kevin

mccarthy certainly increases the amount of rancor among republicans. depending on who could get the 218 votes to become speaker, it will probably be somewhat conservative within the republican spectrum. that will mean things will be less bipartisan. kevin mccarthy was no liberal republican. he was pushed to the right by the freedom caucus. if the new speaker does not have that threat hanging over his head that time, he or she might be able to do some negotiations. we think ukraine funding is in danger, we are heading for another shutdown right before thanksgiving. we are in for a bumpy ride. john: that threat remains

healthier and stronger than ever in congress. thanks for sticking with us. matt: speaking of the threat, representative matt gaetz will be on "balance of power" for a wide-ranging interview. he seemed to be really the catalys to drive kevin mccarthy out of congress, he could not have done it without the help from the democrats. interesting to see what he has to say about that. another concern for president biden and the u.s. economy is the current strike. general motors preparing for the long haul. they are going to the mattresses with a $6 billion line of credit to shore up liquidity and maintain operational flexibility. david welsh joins us now in our

new york headquarters. what do we know about this line of credit and how long it gives them? they have spent hundreds of millions of dollars in the strike we have had so far. david: the losses of $200 million, it comes from the first plant that was struck in missouri. they have another plant that is shut down. the midsize suvs, that wouldn't be countered there yet. they have plenty of liquidity at $39 billion, this is a rainy day fund. right now, gm is spending a lot of money to ramp up production of its electric vehicles. you have the electric silverado pickup, they are wrapping up hummer and cadillac production. all that cost a lot of money.

they are investing in the business at a rampant rate. they have a strike that will bring cash. john: the ongoing dialogue with the uaw, we have seen them navigating the union even more so arguably then stellantis and ford. david: they let them off the hook in previous escalations of the strike. it is pretty far apart right now based on what the union is saying, what companies are saying. there are still big issues on the table that need to be worked out. pay is one where they might have some common ground and be closer to others. the future battery plan workers, how they are paid, how they are treated. the cost of living allowance is

something the company is going to get into. john: i was going to ask, we are digesting all of this on a day where we are looking at the latest sales figures out of the detroit players. if you are looking at the electric vehicle story for gm versus ford, one could argue ford is selling a few more vehicles than gm is right now. to your earlier point, making sure they have enough financing ready. how much more of that is the broader story? david: it's a big piece. gm is out of place right now where they are getting the

newest battery. in terms of range and performance. it is billions of dollars to add the batteries that they are adding. converting some of the assembly plants to make the vehicles. gm had a particularly good recorder, sales have been very good. those are the big money makers. when you think about that in context of the strike, they will withstand a longer strike, further still. they may look at that profit, earnings are released and say you have even more money. matt: what do we know about inventories? how long until it is a problem where a customer will go to the chevy dealer and see they have no trucks left and just go down the street and see if they could get a tundra or tighten?

david: for the chevy colorado and the gmc midsize pickups, dealers tommy they were already running low. they are popular vehicles. you see that impact already. for the chevy traverse, that walkout just started. it was huge in the third quarter for those. you shut that plant down for a couple of days and you will see the issue. you see the same problems across town. because the strike is a rolling strike, plants here and there is the union sees fit, it will be a specific thing. one thing they are short on his replacement parts.

matt: i should've said not tundra and titan but paco and friends here -- taco and frontier. david welsh talking to us about the strike that just continues to go on in his story today on the bloomberg terminal, gm has taken out a $6 billion line of credit to hold strong. tilray looking to capitalize on the legal cannabis business worldwide as they vote on the safe banking act. tilray is the stock of our hour, this is bloomberg. ♪

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john: this is bloomberg markets. time now for our stock of the hour. shares of cannabis companies have been up in a recent market selloff. that includes tilray. the canadian company reported financial results. the growing market share in canada as it awaits bigger opportunities in the united states, one of the ways it is hedging its bets is through beer. it is the fifth largest craft beer brewer in the united states. he joins me here in our toronto studio. a lot of strategy you have to have if you are a canadian cannabis operator waiting for the bigger opportunity. what do you make of what is going on with tilray? >> they telegraphed pretty well things will look eret subsequent to the closing. if you look at what the company

dead, certainly the canad markets doing well, it wbad situation written -- with respect to the headwinds. it is something i know investors have been frustrated with as of late when it comes to the canadian cannabis sentiment. it is trending slowly in the right direction. matt: you don't own any stock yourself, why not? you have a buy on the stock but we showed the board, you don't own any yourself, why is that? matt: i'm not able to own any of the stocks i cover for compliance purposes. regardless of the rating. matt: what do you think about the possibility that safe banking will pass and cannabis companies will be able to take debit cards for purchases in a much more straightforward way, bank those revenues, do m and a,

how likely is it? matt: there of saying with it, for me once, shame on you, for me nine times, shame on me. now it is being called safer banking. it is something congress will have to get aligned with, it is looking to get a vote on the senate floor, which will be unprecedented. it will be positive for the overall sentiment, as far as the change in the sector, it will take some time to flush out depending on what the house wants to do. john: in terms of the products in this sector, we reference the fact that tilray is buying into the beer business. cannabis players on both sides of the border have experimented with drinks. what is the opportunity to

really grow these businesses? matt b.: the numbers would suggest growth. i don't think this is the numbers people expected when it was flying into the sector. we are currently at a $5 billion legal market. the issue we had is how those economics have been divided up. you have seen a lot of companies that have not put a lot of acceleration into the navy in market for the fact that it is very difficult to make ends meet. this is why a company is looking for investments and opportunities that might have a parall and use it as a vehicle should there be catalysts on the front. matt: we will watch what is happening. coming off today's u.s. adp report showing a smaller job name than was expected, we will talk about the state of the economy through the lens of small business. this is bloomberg.

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john: this is bloomberg markets. time now for our what it's worth. jobs down sharply from the 180,000 u.s. jobs that were added in august and march the weakest month of job creations and late 2021. the friday government payrolls report for both canada and the united states that we will be watching very closely. the market has been digesting this. matt: i thought it was a great way to describe it this morning when jonathan ferro says it is an appetizer that maybe you don't want before the main course. let's discuss the big picture

from a small business point of view. we bring in thomas sullivan at the u.s. chamber of commerce. small businesses are the biggest job creators in the u.s., how does the labor picture look from your perspective? thomas: the headwinds that are facing right now is caused in part by worker shortages. small businesses have been facing this for over six years. we pool our small business members four times a year in our latest poll from metlife shows that about 42% of small busiesses are planning on hiring. the bad news is that is down about seven points from the previous quarter. john: how does that affect

atn? are they still able to raise prices? do they have large income? thomas: there's a lot in that multiparty question. the first is the good news. small businesses are doing pretty well right now. the small business chamber index is at the highest levels in's the pandemic. inflation is still the strongest headwind. it has been for six consecutive orders. small business's biggest concern, 56% are worried about wage inflation. that gets at your core question. even though small businesses are more confident, that is at the highest level since the pandemic

, they are really worried about what it takes to find, higher, and keep the best employees. that is where wage inflation tops the risk of all of those things small businesses are worried about whether it is cost of supplies, energy, and then cost of labor. john: it is fascinating with so many companies coming out of the pandemic scrambling to make sure they had the workforce that they needed. we are entering this period where we are trying to determine at what point do you see more weakness in the employment picture? the jobs market is typically a lagging indicator. when companies are making those decisions on whether or not they have to pare back their work force, at what point does it enter the dialogue and when did they start thinking or seriously

about that? thomas: small businesses have been trying to hire for a long time. you have come across situations where only part of the restaurant is open. this is not a new phenomenon. this has been going on for about six years. small businesses want to hire because they want to keep up with that consumer command. they are not able to find and keep the best employees. the good news we found is that small businesses feel as though they have an advantage over some of their larger competitors. 89% of small businesses believe that their family atmosphere within businesses gives them a higher advantage over some of the larger competitors. i heard some time ago this

expression that small businesses are leaning into their smallness to overtake some of the challenges. their latest challenge is wage inflation. we will see small businesses leaning into what makes them unique to try to get the best employees working for them. matt: thanks for joining us. after the adp number, any indicator of what we are going to see with the payroll number on friday. that could for the market be an important indication of what the fed is going to do in november. john: it does feel like we see those trader tweaks on expectations for a rate move by the fed for the end of the year. on this trading day it gave investor areason to buy-in.

we are seeing that continued weakness of oil prices right now. this is bloomberg. ♪ (aidyl) hi, i'm aidyl, and i lost 90 pounds on golo.

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romaine: the cross acid selloff put on -- asset selloff put on pause. katie: kicking your to the closing bell about two hours ago. we are actually looking at some gains. we were up higher earlier but the screen is still green. we will see how we end. big tech doing a little bit better. the nasdaq 100 up seven tenths of a percent. we a