haidi: welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: australia." i am haidi stroud-watts. annabelle: we are getting done to asia-pacific is a major market opens. shery: good evenii am shery ahn. u.s. stocks slipped ahead of the jobs report that may set the tone for the fed's november meeting. treasury yields holding below recent highs. haidi: the sec is seeking to force elon musk to answer further questions about his purchase of twitter shares after he failed to show up as requested. annabelle: gm making a safed offered to workers, but it may not prevent strike spreading as the sand of heads for a fourth week. we are not necessarily going to see the impact of the strikes when it comes to the rest september jobs report coming up in about 14 hours. the uaw strike began after the survey window close, but we are expecting economist to see slowing but stll healthy growth

in nonfarm payrolls, 17,000. this coming at a time when we are contending with those job numbers. we had a mixed picture this week. we had the weekly jobless claims taking up slightly but holding near historical lows after the adp private payrolls also showed the u.s. economy added the fewest number of jobs since the start of 2021, and remember the job openignumber also topping all forecast in august, which i where we had so much volatility in the treasury space. 10 year yields down toward the 4.7 percent level, but the longer and 30 year yield rising, so it is a bit of a mixed picture. u.s. future is not doing much as to view end of the session in new york, fractionally down, just suffice to remember the key level, 42.04 for the s&p 500, the 200 day movig average, that

determines whether the longer term trend is either up or down. crude prices at the moment we pending a little bit after extending declines in the new york session. haidi: we are expecting quite a risk obsession as we are on edge waiting for the latest payroll data, and continuing to really monitor what we are hearing from fed speakers. mary daly of the san francisco fed really saying the fed could eventually leave rates steady at least as we continued to see tightening in financial market conditions and continue to seek inflation go on and on the right part of the trajectory. she was speaking at the economic club of new york at that event on thursday and really talking about the conditions the policymakers would need to cede to avoid having to really continue to tighten. we know that higher for longer has really been the trajectory that we have been looking at. she says importantly even if we hold rates where they are today,

policy will grow increasingly restrictive as inflation and inflation expectations fall, holding rates steady is an active polity -- policy decision. >> the bond market has tightened quite considerably. that is equivalent to a rate hike, so they need to do tightening additionally is not there. shery: we have been getting a lot of commentary from fed officials this week. it we also heard from the chicago fed president talking about the timing of these treasury yields or rations, saying it is a puzzle, why we are seeig this treasury selloff now. take a listen. >> the suv came out, and it was a little different than the market expectation. it was a little different than the sep, but wasn't so different that it would lead to trial change? that part is still a puzzle, but

if you take a six-month perspective, in a way i do not think it is that much of a puzzle. it is clear that the long rates coming up is what you would expect. shery: treasury yields have stabilized, but that spike led to pleasure in the equity space, sore necks because as the reagan -- recent selloff provides opportunities. let's discuss where the opportunities are with nancy dauoud. great to have do with us. when you have higher rates, do the biggest thing to think about is perhaps banks, financial institutions will do well, but at the same time we have a banking turmoil earlier this year. what do you think at the sector? >> i think it is still going to hold steady. certainly banks are benefiting from the rate hikes, and the increase interest rates for investors and bank holders or

account hoers. i think the bond yields are very attractive for the investors who have a lower appetite for risk, being able to get these bond yields without the risk. payment -- risk premium is very attractive. shery: some of the larger banks seems a than small financials. the entire year has been dominated by large gaps. are we going to see it a change in the trend? >> yes, it was a bit surprising that large-cap 70 did this year, but now with the in august and september, it looks like valuations of large-cap growth and value will become somewhat even, so i think there are grant opportunities for entering the market, especially because this is still the season. october is usually the worst of it, but then november, december usually pick up quite a bit, so

this is a grand opportunity. tocks are oversold, yields are high. what a time to start entering the market now. haidi: what segments of the market are you particularly interested in when you take a look at valuations? expectations of earning growth as well? >> we always look for whatever took the biggest hit. that is usually where the biggest opportunity is, so you always want to go for what is low, and clearly large cap value it has underperformed, so that is very attractive, and health care continues to be attractive, because that always seems to do well regardless of what the markets are doing, and of course financials. haidi: you talk about japan, which has obviously had a massiv run up, a lot of people buying into this time is different for the japan narrative. are you one of them? >> i think japan is beginning to

look very interesting, with the understanding that nothing moves very fast in japan, they need all of the lows, low valuations, low leverage on balance sheets, low political risk, low structural changes, and the mindset of the regulators are actually looking for return on investment now, where before they did not. so i thi the longer term investor, that might be the best oportunity. haidi: nanand health care is

one of the area are looking at? what opportunities do you see seeing that there have been some pockets of exuberance in the space? >> as mentioned before, that sector tends to withstand in many different economic environments, but merely the best opportunities now is in the large-cap value and the bond market, because we did not expect many more rate hikes if any, and to rate cuts are not coming anytime soon, so it is time to look at fixed income too. shery: nancy, always good to have you with us. let's get more and what to expect from the crucial jobs report with the u.s. economy managing editor scott landon. we have had so many conflicting reports sort of this week when it comes to the u.s. job market, whether it is u.s. job openings

being pretty high, higher than expected, but at the same time when he came to the adb private prayer will number -- payroll number, the fewest jobs at it since 2021. which one should we trust when it comes to the numbers on friday? >> a lot of people tend to look past the adb report and wait for what the actual government jobs number is offered, and the forecast for that or steady as she goes, around 107,000, unemployment rate dipping to 3.7%, wages rising at a decent clip, so people are still expecting the job market do have held up in september despite with the adp report had. over the long-term, they to run together, but month-to-month they differ. haidi: we are not expecting necessarily some of the organized labor stories to show

up in these numbers, but do you expect these disruptions to have a meaningful impact going forward? >> our colleagues at bloomberg economics to see some impact coming in the october numbers, not necessarily the september numbers coming out on friday, but the coming month, which will be released to the jobs report that cos ut at the beginning of november. we can start seeing the effects of the uaw strike weigh on job growth as it affects other related industries, and companies connected to the auto industry. as far as some of the cover strikes, they arelly forecasting that if the actors strike ends,cnversely added back into payrolls, become exempt -- will be coming back to work. shery: how will all of this influence the fed? >> the fed is expected to hold

rates steady at the next meeting at the end of october, ending november first. market see them as likely not i can, even though fed officials did pencil and another rate hike this year. markets are leaning toward the fed not following through on that. if it does turn out to be a pretty strong jobs report, people will probably expect the fed is more likely to consider a rate hike at the next meeting, but it is by no means a sure thing. haidi: scott landon there. let's get you to belle for a look at how asian markets are setting up as we nervously waited for these payroll numbers. annabelle: the expectation for hundred 70,000 jobs to be added, but actively when you take a lookathe so-called whisper number, traders in the market are expected a little bit higher than that at the 190,000 mark instead.

really, what reading we get will determine the outlook for the fed and keep that chance for a fed rate hike later this year still in the cards if it does come in hotter or harder than expected to come out that, yes, it is that wait-and-see mode, but we are seeing blood guilty of stabilizing of the of the parts of the session polymer we had in treasuries. of course, a softer dollar come to that dynamic playing up. let's enjoy the take a look at what we are seeing and equities had, because we do have futures year, you can see dining to a very range bound start, ozzie stocks whatever away from opening and qb stocks weaker as we get trading underway. continuing to keep an eye on the currency space, but the japanese yen it would up to 150evel that it does really this week, but really the main thing today is the wait-and-see you have the jobs numbers. we will expect then trading volumes and quite range bound session. shery: an ftx cofounder tells a

near court he committed fraud with sam bankman-fried. the latest on the trail the seller. the sec says it may force elon musk to answer is the latest questions about his purchase of twitter shares before the takeover. details next. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: the sec is suing elon musk to force him to testify in its investigation into whether he managed security laws and is 2022 twitter purchase. the agency says he agreed to attend an interview last month but failed to show up. or more let's bring in benjamin thanks. why is the fec -- s.e.c. worried about his purchase and why did he not turn up? >> the sec has been concerned as

we learned today in the most clarity yet over these purchases in the united states, there are rules that require a holders of any public company to make disclosures when they cross certain thresholds, and going back to april and march of 2022 as elon musk was building up his shares, and his ownership of twitter ahead of the purchase of the entire company, there was a duty to essentially make the public. the question is how we handle those disclosures and statements that he made and that period as he was expressing interest in starting to become known that this was actually real thing. if you think back to that, it was more than he rig. it started out as something people were, wow, can you really do that, and became one of the biggest stories of business journalism and the first half of 2022, so would happen quickly,

but he had regulations that he had the following terms of disclosure, and that is what the sec is into. in terms of why he did not show up, kid's lawyer told us that a response to this today, the sec trying to compelling to show up in court essentially testified that elon musk had testified multiple times before, and the sec says as much, but the sec was seeking an additional date for him to give statements and described the details around some of these transactions. the middle of last month, september 15, with the sec says is two days before that was that , musk as were some changes, the sec went along with them but muska did not follow through, said the sec took what was it a seminary step and basically decided they were really going to seek the court's help in

making musk appear before the securities regulator. shery: we know they have had a very contentious relationship when it comes to elon musk of the sec. he called at the short seller and richmond commission. what is next for this relationship in the ongoing probe? >> you can call it a relationship. it has been pretty contentious to say the least. going back to 2018, he did call it the short seller enrichment and mission. he said he did not respected in 60 in december of that same year , and he had this fight with the sec if you recall but at the same time over his statements around taking tesla private, so this is not a new situation, a new dynamic that we are seeing here where elon musk and the sec are duking it out, and i think what we are basically saying is this is kind of the latest area

where the sec is drawing a lot of interest. i was also, elon musk is the richest person in the world. he is involved in massive public companies, private companies, so it is not a surprise that securities and exchange commission it would be asking questions. haidi: there is also the probe into the self-driving claims were tesla. i suppose that goes to an interesting part of the question. is this about elon musk? is this about the approach he has to regulatory oversight for his enterprises? what is the ultimate outcome the sec is hoping for here? >> the sec will always say it is a facts and circumstances situation, and the situation around twitter is very different than the situation around tesla,

self driving cars or his tweet about 420 seven years ago. it is not just the sec elon musk is tingling with in washington. there are many regulators his businesses to touch on, and these regulators have never resided authority, so it is really that is what we have seen in the last year in washington is increasing scrutiny on elon musk, but it is somewhat to be expected as he is ascended to being the world about richest person and is involved with major defense contracting do not one of the most important car companies to social media platforms with millions and millions of users. shery: benjamin there with the latest on the sec and elon musk. you can get a roundup of all of the stories that you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. terminal subscribers go to dayb.

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>> i think the social contract is broken. you are hearing from workers. they of course need fair wages and benefits particularly in this inflationary environment they are in. they want more voice in the work and they want to feel trusted and respected the work ways, and i think ownership is not going to solve all of our problems, but i think it is a part of the new social contract. shery: hour head of equity strategies the stavros.

general motors says it is presented is six contract offer to the striking united auto workers union. sources tell us the new package represents progress on key issues. su keenan joins us with the latest. we are headed into a fourth week of strikes. >> we are in sources tell bloomberg that while gm's latest proposal is indeed a step forward, and may not be enough to end the strike, which is going on for three weeks now, because one of the key things is it ds t surpass what was offered by ford and stellantis.

that is what we are hearing. we know all of the three companies had been holding it 20% pay raise. ford in its seventh offer was the only automaker to exceed the 20% offered. sources have told bloomberg in previous reporting that they are hoping to come away from this right with at least 30% pay increase, so that sets up a situation where these offers are on the table. the uaw president shawn fain will hold a facebook live event and will discuss whether the strikers ward in a more intensified mentor. haidi: another sector joining the fray, hospitality workers in vegas coming us right? >> a strike and bring to a standstill 39 hotels, casinos, and resorts. the culinary workers union and bartenders unit, the locals

there which represents 50,000 workers, room attendants, bartenders, kitchen workers voted by a 90% margin to allow the unionledership to call the strike. there are about 40,000 workers on this trip that areer an expired contract that 22 properties, include mgm seizures and others, a lot of focus for how this goes down. haidi: su keenan there. much more to come on "bloomberg daybreak: australia." this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we have seen this back up and yields and pain that is coming.

>> most of the selloff is overdone. >> treasuries have been the safe asset and it feels like something is wrecking. >> yields of,. >> yields of justify basis points are initial representative time. >> if you see civilization and the growth trend, the upward trend in yields stops. every of market stabilizes. >> we will see treasury yields gulliver and will get back to thinking what is the long-term trade, and that is higher yields. >> we are very bullish on short, high quality yields right now. >> this is a good entry point for yield investors. shery: former guests reacting to the recent telephone bond markets. let's discuss more with annabelle. the key question right now is how high could yields go?

annabelle: that is right, we have been hearing a few different calls coming out and terms of the point that we could reach, because you take a look at the exit over the past 30 days or so, and relieve the pain to be sought over the course of this week was just shy of that 4.9% mark, and that was already it a 16 year high. it will be go from here, they are asking different views. one of them we would have heard from is coming through from jp morgan, and essentially this is a fund manager, and he says that 10 year yield could top 6%, so that is quite a big climb. we talked that cycle hi earlier this week. the reason he says that is because in his view, the fed may need to keep liking. there is a positive view coming there as well, because it turns out he ends a facility in rhode island, and he says that it's been very robust and tells him

the u.s. consumers is resilient, but he says rates likely to sale elevated for quite some time. so someone that has people agree with him, and jp morgan and jamie dimon saying that is like the scenario ahead. haidi: there are others in the opposite camp out? annabelle: that is right, so saying we could see some sort of on selloff instead, and essentially this is coming through from rather bond rather coming through from bob michele, nthat is his view he is with us a feweeks back, but essentially same with such a briskly mounting, so that will make this as a class once again. wt is interesting is just being out of uncertainty coming into this. if you take a look at this terminal chart, it shows is that what we are seeing in options pricng and terms of fed funds futures contracts, and this has reached a record 600,000 contracts of up interest. it is leading is the chance of a fed rate hike later this year.

haidi: let's stick with the federal reserve bank of san francisco mary daly says the fed can keep rates steady. speaking at the economic club of new york with our colleague lisa abramowicz. >> the bond market has tightened quite considerably, over 36 basis points. that is equivalent to a rate hike, so the need to do tightening additionally is not there, so for my own perspective that is what i look at. my job associate, our job as i see it is not do tightening, just do our part. it is to watch financial conditions. we raise the funds rate and it

moves through other financial rates. we do not need to booster more. does that make sense? >> absolutely, the rise in yields actually does the fed's jobs for? would you agree with that? >> that is how it works. one of the things that is happened in the last 90 days and in the last few weeks is that financial markets have collectively seem to take on board a variety of things, but what of the things i heard for many commentators and many of the market outreach i do is that they had this general understanding now that we are committed the fomc to keep rates higher for longer in an effort to bring inflation fully back down to 2%, and that recognition along with all of the other factors we have put on that list for why bond yields have risen are affecting financial conditions and tightening, and i see that is a positive outcome

that we would have tighter financial conditions, because then we could really get the job done of inflation back to rest. >> when this is hell of something that is welcome from the perspective of finding the market as coming to terms with what the market is saying, and what is it disorderly? >> you always want orderly pricing over disorderly pricing, and so far but i see is this. here is how i am seeing it is that what is happening is financial markets are actually trying to find their footing in the right price for things, they have to digest a lot of information. at one of it is the supply and demand changes in the treasury space. supplies going up and demand is going down, especially from foreign buyers, so that is one factor to digest. under their factor to the adjusters policy and guidance in the sec. another conversation is about

whether the need for a as actually risen. shery: mary daly with lisa abramowicz. staying with the economic outlook for the rest, some of america's best known brands are declaring bankruptcy. we have seen years of g bahrain, but this inflation is making the price of debt more expensive. sonali basak tells us what this means. >> that is piling up. companies are filing for bankruptcy at the fastest rate since 2020. the record surge of interest rates is that the writ of the issue. global companies have borrowed more than $500 billion of investment that when the fed rate hike began. the vast majority was heaped on to u.s. value sheets, and despite the high barring cause, debt continues to grow. >> it has been building over the course of the last year. interest rates have increased.

>> blue-chip name sell there borrowing costs rise by more than double to an average of 5.6%, while junk rated companies were paying 8.7%. >> the problem is this is by design. the federal reserve once to slow down inflation. interest rates are cap higher for longer than a lot of economists on wall street expected. >> this higher rate environment as created a mountain of distressed debt. since 2021, this sort of dead owned by riskier businesses has jumped around 400%. >> for consumer facing companies, that will impact their businesses, and those can be difficult particularly if they have a lot of space. the appetite for risk as to climbed up it. there is less capital available to companies, particularly those that are growing. >> from the postwar economic

boom in the 1950's to its i in the 1980's interest rates have fluctuated with the times, but the near zero rates of the last 15 years following the great financial crisis have hardly been the norm. the problem is when companies are not put off by higher rates and keep our rain, it may be a sign that the fed has more work to do to bring and inflation, which increases the odds of someone getting caught offside and left to take the hit. haidi: plenty more to come on "bloomberg daybreak: australia." this is bloomberg. ♪

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and more! but mostly sports. that's fubo! haidi: australians vote next week unaware referendum to change the country's constitution. the proposal is to set up an advancement wanted to give first nations people a voice in parliament. the campaign because that booze, but recent surveys all show than narrow argument is in delete. our next guest as a rejection of the boys to parliament could anchor an underling reception that australia is a fundamentally regressive nation. you refer to this underlying perception that australia is a

fundamentally ugly and regressive nation. if the no vote does prevail, is it a mere perception or a reflection of reality? >> i think it is a singular issue like this, no indication to make a judgment about a country. the argument is less a factor analysis. it is more about how perceptions internationally of australia may will be anchored in a certain way or affected in a certain way by these kind of singular issue high-profile moments, in the same way that brexit anchors a certain view around the trajectory oe ited kingdom, theelection of donald trump in 2016 rightly or wrongly as ongoing influence of how many people tbo the future of the unitedtates ll continue to interact withe

the rest of the world. it is about perceptions. wer hat goes to the reality of australia's fundamental character is a separate question. haidi: what is being proposed should not be controversial. it should not be comforted, and somehow through the campaigning it has been either due to this information or miscommunication. should this have actually been put to a referendum? should this have just been legislated after the election? >> it is an interesting and important tactical political question in that respect. i think now and potentially after the referendum, if it is not successful it will be easy to look back in hindsight and say they should have been legislated first. we should have had a proof of at would have allayed some of the concerns, and it could have been entrencheerown the

line, but i think you need to start from the fundamentl vew that this was a pion but to the rfusralia by a highly representative and thorough process led by the people, and what they wanted was not just a legislative body. what th wanted was something that was in french of the constitution because of the significance impermanence in the institutionalization that that means. shery: so given the push by the prime minister himself, what is at stake here? >> in the first instance, it really goes to his credibility and the credibility of his government. it was the very first thing he promised to do with this referendum, and his voice when he won on election night, so it has been staked out as a key if not primary priority for the government, so if it fails that will inevitably hurt the

government's reputation. it will setback their broader mission of constitutional reform. the idea, if this is about know, we are unlikely to see aref nissen -- referendum. shery: why has the camp gained so much support? >> i think of the first instance, you need to say that australia is a huge and diverse country geographically, ethnically, politically, so that means it has been quite difficult. they yes -- the yes campaign to settle on a single narrative. the institution is stacked against change. not only do a majority of australians have the vote in favor, four out of australia's

six states after vote in favor of change, and it is been very easy for the new campaign to run a simple and somewhat cynical campaign where they are actually giving people an excuse to be ignorant about the issue by saying if you do not know vote no, and that is a repetition of the tactic taken in 1999 as well, which is to simply say if you do not understand it, there is no need to educate yourself. you should not risk anything and say to the status quo, and unfortunately that seems to be getting cut through against the complex and historically laden and political message and idea thatthe yes campaign had tgt across if they want to be successful. haidi: what is the reputation of were australia internationally? i am thinking of, the prime minister obviously meeting in

beijing, november or before the end get together with xi jinping. does this give less leverage because of all of the criticism that we tend to have about other countries, developing countries and their human rights records if we cannot get this referendum through. what does that say about us as a country and the ability to hold those views? >> it is a really big issue, and unfortunately it is i think an unfortunate reality diplomats and the community are grappling with the right now when it seems like it is heading in a better direction. -- bad direction. if the no cases successful, the first is postcolonial situations in order region. southeast asia that imported to

australia and australia foreign policy for a number of reasons, but who also see and australia are countries to grappling with its colonial history, and there is certainly a risk that the first nations foreign policy that the labor government has put forward is undermined by the vote. under the country is the likes of nefarious totalitarian actors like china, russia, to a lesser extent iran: the cease on to cynically deflect from serious criticisms about their own human rights records, and i think the third category of country is the anglo sphere countries whose politics and history is very similar to australia's and a lot of respects said where australian politics there is

probably a higher degree of literacy about it, and i think it will be a hit to progressive politics and australia and to perceptions of australia as a forward-looking country in those places. shery: shu piper -- hugh piper, and we have breaking news. president biden plans to meet with chinese president xi jinping next month in the united states. we have seen a series of high-level conversations from the two sides as the two countries attempt to thaw relations including visits from secretary of state antony blinken and treasury secretary yellen's visit, not to mention the secretary of commerce general mondo. the less time they meant was

back in indonesia, so this would be the first face-to-face summit expected now according to the washington post here in the united states next month. this would be potentially on the sidelines of the apec summit in the united states. president biden to meet president xi jinping next month in the u.s. according to the washington post. we have more to come after the break. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: imf managing director says global economic prospects are improving with the u.s. returned to its pre-pandemic growth that. she says india has been a standout among emerging markets while uncertain economic activity in china remains a risk. the imf is urging central banks to avoid immaturely easing monetary policy amid the threat of resurgent inflation. >> the first half of 2023 is brought some good news, largely because stronger demand for services and tangible progress in the fight against inflation. this increases the chances for a soft landing, and we cannot let

our guard down. haidi: let's take a look at other geo-political stories that we are watching. the deputy defense secretary says u.s. partnerships in asia are growing as china becomes more assertive across the region. an interview, she started a the new base agreement with the philippines and enhance cooperation with south korea and japan. she says the alliance with u.k. and australia is among the partnerships that can contribute to the region's stability. a pentagon official says the threat of a government shutdown and other internal upheaval threatens military readiness and its ability to support ukraine. hicks says the u.s. has options for continuing funding a military support for ukraine even if congress does not improve the administration's latest proposal, but she says the pentagon is not looking at reprogramming money allocated to

other areas to make up the gap. shery: the ftx co-founder as taken the stand at sam and freed trial sink immediately he and his former childhood friend committed a multibillion-dollar fraud. let's bring in bloomberg's legal reporter in new york. how surprising is this? after this gate -- how did this to go? >> gary wong was quite close friends with sam bankman-fried and cofounded ftx. he came onto the stand late in the day 45 minutes before the court was due to finish. immediately he spoke about he and sam committed this multibillion-dollar fraud at ftx , and he altered the code at sam bankman-fried's direction to

give the company unlimited funds at ftx. he admitted in front of the jury that he committed federal crimes and pleaded guilty to them and ended into an agreement to testify against sam. haidi: what comes next in this entire process? >> we are expecting a sister money to continue through tomorrow, essig is one of the key witnesses and the government's case. i imagine sam's loyal -- lawyers want to take time questioning, mainly that he was acting at sam's behest at altering the code. and then, we are waiting to hear from the two other cooperating witnesses, the other one being caroline, who was sam's

ex-girlfriend. we are waiting to see that in the next few weeks. haidi: let's take a look at stocks we are watching when trade opens in australia just about four minutes time. bhp is planning to keep its current operations after completing sale pressures after a stronger outlook for high-quality materials. traders turning bearish on oil after the recession -- recent rally. watching the likes of several companies when trading gets underway in sydney. we are looking at a nervous session, given that we are waiting for those u.s. jobs numbers looking like community open -- muted open. this is bloomberg. ♪

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