haidi: you are watching "daybreak: asia." new zealand preparing to vote on saturday in its general election. >> we are counting down to the major market open. australia has just come online. shery: the top stories, asian stocks following the u.s. lower as fresh cpi data boosting bets on fed rate hikes. the u.s. and qatar withholding $6 billion of funding to iran as they look at involvement on the attack in israel. australia looking to reject an additional -- as there are

allegations of racism. haidi: breaking news out of south korea, the jobless rate for september coming in at 2.6% in line with expectations although the labor market has loosened a little bit from the previous month was it stood up a 2.4% jobless rate. 309,000 jobs for the south korean economy from a year earlier not to mention the jobless rate at 2.6% is low compared with the 10 year average of 3.5% in the post-pandemic average of 3.3%. we still have strength in the service sector, although risks remain for the south korean economy, including deteriorating global demand. we are headed towards a be ok rate decision next week, annabel, but we are expecting to see a more cautious central-bank. vonnie: yeah -- anabelle: yeah,

watching the fed as well because the moves in the session today are about the chances of investors having to react to that u.s. inflation print. in the current will go to the details in a moment, but this is essentially an inflation print the fed did not want to see because it puts the chance of a november rate hike on the table so the market reaction to date is a reference to do that and you see australian stocks in the red snapping a six-day advance and we have seen the reaction already in bond yields pushing higher so in-line with what came through and treasuries. let's change off because the rest of the region, we are monitoring kiwi bonds, yields moving higher were, the japanese yen and focus because we are testing that 150 mark, the rate differential between the boj fed and plate, and equities as a result looking to come under

pressure throughout the session and we have most futures pointing to the downside. hong kong is standing out because you can see the drop protected for the 2% of the start of trade. hong kong caught between what's happening in the u.s. economy in china is worth mentioning as well and we have chinese inflation data do later in the story is different for the chinese economy, but cpi expected to state near zero and ppi and negative territory and inflation pressures likely subdued in the mainland economy for some time, but broadly china-u.s., it is story of inflation. shery: especially when we saw the u.s. cpi numbers hotter than expected on top of the ppi numbers we got in the previous data. take a look at u.s. futures at the moment because it is muted early in the asian session after stocks and treasuries falling on that speculation we might see more fed tightening. we had bancshares

underperforming ahead of earnings results. the biggest banks report friday including j.p. morgan and wells fargo and citibank. we are continuing to watch that treasury selloff that has reignited across the curve. the 10 year yield rising to 4.7% , while the 30-year rate surged on the weekly auction leading to the dollar with the best gain in five weeks in pressure in oil prices although in the asian session we are seeing more upside despite the fact that u.s. crude stockpiles also increased, but let's dive into those hot cpi numbers with our global economics correspondent enda curran. there are many ways to look at the strong inflation in the u.s. including super core cpi. what is important in the numbers? enda: the headline is the u.s. inflation story has not completely gone away. we saw an increase in the headline inflation numbers

reflecting higher shelter costs, higher energy costs, higher costs for services such as car insurance in particular, and even though core inflation remained broadly stable, the gauge the fed looks at which is a reading within a reading, the so-called super court is well away from the 2% target of the fed comes at the bottom line is that these numbers don't yet give comfort to the view of the disinflation straight was headed in one direction, and of course, the implications for the central bank as they would not have to raise borrowing costs anymore but it will get more complicated given what is happening with treasury yields, markets, signs of a slowing economy, and that now there is volatility, iraq, hamas, so it is going to be difficult from this point on.

haidi: the story of rising yields is interesting. we are hearing more caution around the commentary from the fed these days. could we potentially see the impact of higher yields, meaning less of a need to hi, but also for of a concern over the soft landing scenario being derailed? enda: yes. there is a view that the increase in treasury yields might do the job for the fed and some fed officials have nodded at this point themselves at the fact is the market is already targeting and without the fed doing it further. that is already out there. the other part of the story is the fed knows they have come so far bringing inflation down without crashing the economy and job market so far, but that will get harder to pull off. the minutes they came out yesterday spoke about the need for caution and they want to tread carefully from here. they clearly don't want have to raise interest rates anymore. again, the numbers today, the

good side of inflation coming off quite smoothly, but services quite sticky when it comes to where those prices remain high and inflation remains, and that will be tough to unwind and that is why economists reacting resign just come treasury yields are doing with the doing but you can't discount the fed will move again may be november if not december with one more hike to get inflation back to where they wanted. haidi: enda curran with us. bloomberg has learned that the u.s. has reached an informal understanding with qatar hold off and distribute and $6 billion in oil revenue to iran as the u.s. is probing iran's potential involvement in the hamas attack on israel. our correspondent joins us with the details. what is the understanding that we understand has been reached on this oil revenue issue? michael: yeah, thanks.

bloomberg is reporting that there is an informal understanding that this $6 billion was part of the prisoner swap between the u.s. and iran that once that swap occurred that there would be some oil money released for humanitarian purposes. the u.s. and qatar have agreed to hold back on that, as the white house with the biden administration looks into to what extent or whether iran had involvement in saturday's attacks by hamas. iran said that was a purely palestinian decision and ed acknowledge that it has trained hamas but was not aware of what was going to take place on saturday, but this is obviously a big issue because any suggestion that iran had a direct and in this potentially widens the conflict beyond israel's borders. shery: what is happening on the

ground now? we heard about israeli jets hitting targets in gaza. are we hearing more about the possible ground incursion at this point? michael: yeah, israeli troops have massed on the borders of gaza. the latest reports say 1300 people have been killed in gaza in the fighting come in the ground assault one suspects is reasonably imminent. the secretary of state antony blinken pointed out to israel about as a democracy it matters how they go about this war against hamas, basically trying to reduce wherever possible the civilian casualties, and just on that subject, china made its first statement yesterday, public statement on israel and said it opposed any actions that harm civilians. it was a very cautious statement , but a ground offensive seems to be the next stage of the war that we are looking at.

haidi: mike, you know, for the best part of two decades the israeli governments have been trying to manage hamas, right? has this really change that strategy? and what certainty do we have about what this next kind of period looks like? michael: it is a good question. it is terribly uncertain, but you are bright. the understanding has been of course that hamas opposed israel's right to exist, but the government was very much of the mind that hamas could be managed , and that it was interested in ruling the gaza strip, and so the palestinians were able to work in israel and there were transfers that israel agreed to. that has all been thrown up in the air with this attack in the

israeli government is determined to destroy hamas. there has been talk potentially of a temporary military administration, or being handed over to international organizations, but it is clear and there is still a ground operation to come before we get to that stage, so there is a great deal of uncertainty over that. haidi: the latest on the israel-hamas war. still ahead, australians are proposed to recognize the proposal for a body in the national referendum in parliament. we would dig deeper into the issues behind this with our guest from the university of queensland mid. going along on the u.s. and japanese equities, the head of management joins us next to discuss their strategy. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> this report, i am still optimistic inflation is coming down. >> inflation will continue to come down. >> i don't think it changes the view at the federal reserve. >> it puts one more rate hike on the table this year. >> possibly november, december. >> the market recently has been excessively focused on how high and we should be focused on how long. >> it is being and restricted territory that matters. >> we talked about that last mile being potentially difficult. >> we underestimate how hard it will be to go from four to two. >> we are clearly not can have a cut in the next six months. >> the hurdle to cut is higher than to raise. haidi: some of our guests on bloomberg tv weighing in on the latest consumer price figures. shery: our next guest is long

u.s. and japanese stocks, the head of u.s. management of horizon investments joins us now. scott, great to have you with us. what are you expecting to hear in terms of margin pressures due to inflation in this u.s. earnings season? scott: thank you for having me. market pressure will be front and center for companies as we enter a deep disinflationary environment. inflation was a big boost to markets, especially the consumer staples, so as inflation pressures come off particularly in the good sectors without margin pressure is something we will be watching. it's not something we are generally concerned about right now but something to be mindful that now. shery: especially that were watching where the fed goes from here. are you factoring in a potential rate hike the fed this year and what would that mean for u.s. equities and global equities? we have already seen two months of losses, right? scott: we have.

everybody knows that everybody knows that we are entering a strong seasonal period now. the fact, we think the fed is done. we think the pause in november is done and despite the speakers we have had, we think jerome powell will confirm these remarks that long-term interest rates have done the job for them so they don't necessarily need to do more, so interest-rate stability and positive seasonals will be a big boost to stock markets, especially u.s. and japan, as we come into the rest of this quarter. haidi: yeah, japan is interesting. it has been a big run up this year. is there more to go? there is a big group that believed this time it is different. scott: it has a chance to be different for the first time

since i have been a professional in the last 25 to 35 years we have had a breakout and nominal gdp in japan to the upside. we have not had much nominal gdp growth in japan since the mid-1990's and we are getting that, and less corporate profits grow into fairly organic and easy way, so you combined that with more clarity as to what the boj would do with currency policy and yield curve control can we think this is a burgeoning story and japanese equities that will probably go on for years. haidi: um, scott, what is the runway for those gains in which sectors in particular do you like and what is the impact of what the boj does in the impact of the currency, how does it way into that calculus? scott: it is important because japan is a large export economy but we don't think you have to

be differentiated in the early parts of the story. we just want to be exposed to the cyclical sides of the japanese economy, which is frankly a large part of the stock market, and that would do heavy lifting for us. at some point we will have to become more differentiated in terms of what sector in japan, but now we're getting 5% nominal gdp growth for the first time in 25 years. i think just the exposure broadly speaking will be enough, and we can become more clever and more cute as we enter into the middle parts of the rally, but we think we are in the beginning of this thing now, so just get exposure. it has been a killer trade for the better part of 20 years, but if you can get exposure to japanese equities right now and ride this nominal gdp growth they have going, you will be happy in december 2024. shery: is that broad exposure to ambitious when it comes to

chinese assets given the issues we are seeing in the property sector?or do you trust the chinese government to come to the rescue? scott: trusting the chinese government is not something we do well here. [laughter] i don't think investors would be wise to trust the chinese government, especially growth preventing bubbles and asserting financial stability. the chinese economy is troubled now. they have the early markings of a balance sheet recession in china, and when you have a property sector which is the default for most chinese consumers in savings on portfolios, it is struggling. that is before deleveraging. deleveraging in consumer economy, a government that is opposed to large-scale stimulus, it is a nasty recipe for asset markets, so as far as the chinese reinvesting wise goes there are going to be pockets and times you can play it, but a medium-term, longer-term

allocation the chinese equities, the balance sheet trouble, until the chinese government supports the economy from a consumption and demand standpoint, it is a tough place to be for an investment standpoint. shery: what are the pockets of opportunities? i'm surprised you are so bearish about the chinese market because were seeing easing policies from the pboc and potentially supportive measures from fiscal policy, not to mention the chinese yuan is weak, so that is supposed to help exporters. scott: it is, but up when people are afraid to take risks. right now, the culture in china is not keen on taking risks. back that up with chinese banks, again, again, if the government tells them to lend, they will lend. you have to have demand for loans. and the metrics we are seeing, were not seeing a lot of demand for loans, risk-taking, for speculation on the corporate side of the chinese economy, and

so but all those things are in place and until the psyche changes until the government decides to say listen, we will get growth and we will support the property sector, we will support whatever we need to do and support the balance sheets of consumers and businesses, until that happens, again, there will be pockets you can play, but from a structural standpoint we think it will be challenging for the next couple of years. haidi: scott, great to chat with you. head of investment at horizon investments with us. much more to come here on "daybreak: asia." this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: new zealand will vote in

the general election saturday. polls are suggesting the main opposition party could come out on top, but the path to government could be twisty. our managing editor joins me here in washington. it is very windy. what are you watching? >> it is incredibly windy, and incredibly uncertain. [laughter] we are in a situation, as we are on the ground in wellington, and nobody has an idea of what is going on. the polling has been reasonably stable and is showing the opposition that little bit ahead right now, but not far enough ahead that you know for certain they will be able to form a government certainly not on their own and they might have to ask for help from not just one but may 2 other parties. how that would work and how they might govern in that situation, very difficult to say so there is a lot of uncertainty walking into this.

i think the final days will be really, really interesting. they had a leadership debate last night. that was contentious and fractious. haidi: and confusing with two men named chris. derek: it is. one candidate has been such a big feature on the global stage and she is really absent in this campaign. she has not been a big factor, and even to the point where policies are not a huge factor as much because when one candidate came on the scene, facing her, he pulled back on her policies that were may be more contentious, so her party is not even running on her full agenda right now. it is a big change and there is a lot of uncertainty. haidi: and nope, as i understand it, the international stature,

contrast it with the diminishing of her popularity in the last parts of her leadership, but at the same time in a country where you don't have compulsory voting, do you need personalities to galvanize people to vote? a lot of people are undecided or perhaps will not care enough to turn up. derek: yeah, i think in new zealand you're looking at higher turnout than you would in some western democracies, the united states for example. they would look at new zealand turned on and say oh my goodness him if we could have that here. [laughter] but it might be a question. i think that certainly the ruling party needs as many as they can. i am also curious how this will break down because you could have the labour party voters but then we have seen a surge towards the greeting and a lot of elections. we thought that in australia last year with a surge they are,

so do we see something like that here with younger voters? i think that is an interesting question that i will be watching certainly. haidi: it is a bit of a double bill for those fond of the democratic process, if you will, so what is top of mind when it comes to the voice department? derek: everyone is suggesting it will be a rough night for the campaign. it is a difficult one to look at exactly because you have a two -tiered set up for this. haidi: yeah. derek: most states as well as nationally. haidi: yeah. so much to talk about here in wellington. coming up next, more analysis when it comes to the voice the parliament happening saturday that historic referendum. we will nice footwork. man, you're lucky, watching live sports

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annabelle: we are counting down to the opens in sydney, seoul, and tokyo. actually, sidney already online, but the real story of the session is going to be about chinese inflation data. we have numbers out overnight. take a look at what we are seeing for the mainland. the economic story is vastly different. we have really been at risk of cbi falling into deflationary territory. it is expected to come in today at .01%. pbi meanwhile is expected to stay in negative territory, but you are starting to see that drop continue to moderate. two consecutive months, we could see that reduction for a third straight time. what is really driving that and what is the big question for the chinese economy is how long it

takes for policy to port -- policy support to generate enough demand. the cpi reading expected near zero when it comes out later this morning. the other big story is still that u.s. inflation print. that is really being felt, the ramifications of that in the bond space. you can see these moves across the curve. it is really that reaction that we saw in treasuries. shery: that selloff really being reignited in the new york session. we are talking about the 10-year yield jumping to that 4.7% level while the 30-year yield also search. we also had the option contributing to -- a week option continuing -- we also had a week option contributing to those moves. when are we going to see peak rates?

>> in a lot of ways, that depends on the fed, how they respond to this and to the data that will be coming in. part of the difficulty with working out that picture is everybody is focusing very much on december as the most likely time when the central bank would raise rates if it is going to raise rates this year. november still sell -- still seen as being a 40% chance. that's the patient's part of it. the fed has been saying they could show some patients. this data overnight and the pbi and some of the other data that has been out there -- the jobs report was also reasonably strong -- that's shifting the needle towards the idea the fed will be patient in november and then hike in december. you need to see a fairly serious downturn from here in the data

on a range of indicators to have investors become confident that december would also be a hold. overall, the bedding is that if they hold in december, then that is it, they have done. again, that could shift. part of what is going on is we have had a series of disappointments. it is like charlie brown and the football in "peanuts." lucy holding it and every time he runs up, she pushes it away. that's the bond market this year. every time they run towards the football thinking this is it, this is peak rates, the data, the fed, whatever pulls the football away, and they fall flat. haidi: that's the best explainer of what we have seen happen in the bond market this whole year.

when you take a look at the story of rising yields, if you listen to the fed as well, that will change the need for what they need to do and will also change expectations for a soft landing. >> yeah, i've spent a lot of time unpacking that, but fed speakers have been saying that they could be patient because of the backup in yields and because of what that will do to financial conditions. that does mean -- you know, that's that patient's part of it, and they want to see what does the data show? it is a little bit like that in march when they were talking about the idea that the banking crisis might mean they don't need to raise rates or don't need to raise rates as much, and they slow down the pace of hikes, they became patient and then ultimately discovered the data showed that inflation was still a problem. that's the question for the bond

market. there's also this very catch-22 situation where if yields stay high, the fed does not necessarily need to hike. if they come back down, maybe it does. on both ends, if you bet on yields rising and staying up, maybe that's a bad play because they will come down or if they start moving down, you bet on them going further down, maybe then the fed says hang on, we might need to hike because of what's going on with rates. it is a very fluid situation, and you have to think there has been a lot of saying the best thing to do is just sit in cash and earn your 5% and not have to worry about the ups and downs of a very volatile market. haidi: the imf says it is

monitoring the conflict between israel and hamas and its impact on energy markets. we have the latest on the bloc 's annual meeting in marrakech. >> on day four of the imf annual meetings, they managing director said the ongoing israel-hamas conflict dims the global outlook and its effect in particular on oil markets is of concern. the conflict is top of mind for leaders gather here in marrakech as they attempt to tackle financing towards growth, development, and prosperity for lower income countries. the managing director also said she is in close discussions on egypt and ensuring its success. the imf africa director echoed those comments in an interview with us earlier on thursday and called on international relief to mobilize more resources and support nations facing a funding

squeeze. on the issue of debt restructuring for other developing countries, bloomberg reporting is suggesting there may be an impasse between creditors and china, and the potential for a breakthrough may be slim this week if terms of restructuring of some of the debt deals is not ironed out between china and private lenders. shery: speaking in morocco as well, the governor of the bank of korea said a wider conflict in the middle east that results in more expensive oil will be a drag on growth. we're told that for now it is too early to tell if the israel-hamas war will have a long-lasting economic impact. >> the oil price channel is an important channel for many markets. at this moment, it would be premature to judge the effect.

i was surprised the last couple of weeks, the market reaction was relatively muted, but i feel like it is the beginning of what will happen in the future. shery: china is defending its position on the hamas war after israel called on beijing to engage in talks on the conflict. china's foreign ministry says it condemns conflicts that lead to civilian deaths, adding that it stands on the side of peace. israel's ambassador told bloomberg thursday that beijing needs to be more involved in middle east talks. coming up, australians look poised to reject the proposal for an indigenous advisory body to parliament. we will discuss with the university of queensland senior law lecturer. this is bloomberg. ♪ digital money coach in the chase mobile® app.

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underway for a few days now in australia's voice recommend him -- referendum. it is are simple yes/no questions on referendum the first peoples of australia by establishing an indigenous voice. >> i ask all australians to vote yes. paul: the prime minister is delivering on an election promise by holding this referendum. indigenous australians are overrepresented in every poor statistic possible including poverty and incarceration rates. the voice is intended to help remedy these ingrained problems. the proposed body of indigenous australians would directly advise the government on what their communities need. >> yes makes it possible. pull -- paul: after initial

enthusiasm, the no campaign has stirred doubt over the lack of detail and the reach and function of the voice, warning that it risks aggravating rachel -- racial division. >>'s voice is risky, divisive, and polarizing. if you don't know, vote no. >> referendums in australia are rare. successful ones are even rarer. on the eve of the vote, the voice is on track to join that long list of defeats. haidi: joining us now, a senior lecturer in law at the university of queensland. great to have you with us. on the precipice of this vote on saturday. tell us about your expectations and more importantly what comes next.

>> my expectation is that we will have a pretty decent voter turnout, i think, for this referendum. i think it will be probably among the highest voter turnout's we have had in electoral and referenda history, but in saying that, i have an expectation as well that voters will do their due diligence. they will learn about today before they cast their vote tomorrow exactly what it is that's being proposed. as we have stated time and time again, it just guarantees its existence because it is recognized in the constitution, so my expectation is that people vote on principle. they don't get caught up with the no campaign's misinformation and lies and that they think about what their values are when they cast their vote on the

ballot and think about this country's future. haidi: you touched upon the aspect of misinformation, of conflicting information that is being distributed widely online. his interesting this is the first referendum we have seen in the social media era. has that complicated matters in terms of getting what is ultimately a simple message past ? >> it has been extremely difficult. we have seen the no campaign really take advantage of that and in doing so, i know myself and many other prominent yes campaigners that are indigenous that are leaders, we have tried to put correct information out there to educate voters so that they feel confident and they are informed when they cast their vote, but that has been quite difficult when we have had

different types of slander propaganda written about us within our commentary on social media platforms. i have had my photo actually photoshopped from when i attended the brisbane walk for yes campaign walk. there's a lot of disinformation out there that is totally unrepresentative of what either campaigns themselves represent, what the actual law reform represents and what it would do and in general what this country's history and national identity is, which is based on racism and divide. the no campaign has put forth no other alternative options and needs to be held accountable for the amount of damage that it has done to providing all australians with adequate information so that they are empowered to cast an informed vote at this referendum. it has been incredibly

difficult, but we are doing our best. we are having conversations on the ground. we have been doing that every day this week, and there's a lot of support. i am optimistic, and i think that this is anyone's game now if voters just think about what they are going to do tomorrow and what they stand for, what their values are and make an informed vote. vote yes to indigenous representation. i think it will be a close one. haidi: what is next for the yes campaign if you lose this referendum? >> i cannot imagine another dialogue process being rolled out within the next few months after a potential defeat. i think this entire campaign, no matter what side of politics you stand on, has been utterly damaging and distressing for

people who live in australia, and it has been really stressful for those supporters who have been watching, seeing how the most visible people in a society have been targeted. next, i think people will have to come to terms with what the result is either way. i think there's a lot of work to be done in terms of law reform and indigenous justice in australia either way, but if it is defeat, we will need to heal, and we will have to go into some sorry business and come together as a community. it will only be then that we can think about how we move on from this. haidi: given the ugliness you are talking about that was brought forth ahead of this vote, you talk about the distress that you felt. would you have said that it would have been better to delay this vote, to make it happen

later with more education among the general public or was this the right time? >> this was the right time. it was a long time coming. we had been advocating for this really since 1999, so i think that is an incredible amount of time. we have had bipartisan support. unfortunately, we lost the bipartisanship support right at the very end just as we were about to cross the line and that was after a referendum was timetable last year by our new incoming prime minister, so we want to know -- we want to know that that would happen and we were not to know the levels the opposition would stoop to to derail an opportunity like this. shery: thank you very much for

all the context. we have more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ old school wisdom, with a passion for what's possible.

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shery: we have breaking news at the moment. we are hearing numerous reports across washington that steve scalise has ended his speakership bid as house republicans remain in turmoil. he is dropping out of the speaker race according to axios. punch bowl also saying steve scalise is withdrawing from the speakership race. remember, he was just nominated as the next u.s. house speaker, succeeding kevin mccarthy, who was deposed by party hardliners last week. we did not know if you had enough votes. he is now said to be out of the race. this is bloomberg. ♪

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haidi: this is "bloomberg daybreak: asia." shery, it is like four seasons in one day in wellington at the moment, but what we are here for is a potential change in government that is being flagged in the polls at this point, and in terms of what the markets will be watching, new zealand is interested given that the rbnz has been at the forefront of this rate cycle. annabelle: when you talk about central banks, it is what the fed will be doing next given the inflation print probably not the numbers they wanted to see either. shery: uninstall of this we continue to see more turmoil in washington d.c. with steve scalise ending his speakership it to the u.s. house saying he

is withdrawing his name as nominee. we also have breaking news of singapore, third quarter gdp numbers, growth of 1% quarter on quarter, which is beating economist expectations of 0.6% growth. it is also really improvement from the previous quarter and really growth that was necessarily expected to be the strong. on eight year on year basis, 0.7% growth for singapore and the third quarter at a time when we are getting lines from monetary authorities of singapore saying there is no change to the width center of the currency band and they are maintaining the prevailing slope of the policy band. it is another policy pauses for a second straight meeting. remember, the monetary authority of singapore really i just policy through the current slope center and width of the

currency. authorities saying they are seeing 2023 cp item all items inflation at around 3%. they are maintaining the soap with center of the currency band, and the dollar in singapore holding steady as that policy announcement is made with no shift for a second straight meeting since april. there also seeing 2024 core inflation at 3.5%, shifting to quarterly monetary policy statements from 2024 as well. we just had their gdp as well beating expectations with the of 1% quarter on quarter, so we are seeing a little bit more improvement in that very exposed economy to external vulnerabilities. their export numbers were a little stronger-than-expected in the first two months of the past quarter. annabelle: that is right, and

also the open is upon us for key markets, japan, korea, australia one hour into the session, but at the start taking a look first and foremost of those moves are seeing in treasury yields, because it is the open of cash markets at 12:00 p.m. stabilization is what you can see coming through, but you did have huge moves in the bond rout in the prior session, so that action coming through to the u.s. inflation print, perhaps not the number the fed wanted to see, but core cpi up .3% and the headline gauge moving .4% higher on the month, so the fed rate hike bets are back of the table, and this is the narrative playing up. will we see another 25 basis point move from the fed this year? when you look at what is happening in the japanese yen, testing the 150 level, and it is that yield gap or yield differential between the boj and the fed that is really in focus. haidi: let's change on, because a couple of key movers we are

watching to start trading, over in korea you were seeing that slide in starks -- stocks at the start of trade and weakness in the korean won, another export sensitive currency, but echo did it is in focus because we had adjuster jobless rate rising to 6.2%, 6.4% rather, but when you take a look at the 2.6% and the 10 year average at around 3.5%, it tells you the labor market is still very tight in korea, so the bok even more reason to keep its hawkish messaging in place, and bloomberg intelligence out this morning saying they do expect the bank of korea to stand on hold at the next meeting. let's change on, because the moves in australia in focus, very sensitive to what is happening in the chinese economy. here inflation data also a key story, but very different for the mainland economy, because we are expecting cpi to stick near zero, ppi also seen in deflation

territory, so those key numbers are due out later this morning and beijing. also watching oil, seeing for continue to retreat for brent crude, a little bit firmer in the session, the iea says the pullback from the $100 per barrel mark is a signal that prices have not climbed high enough to start to distract demand, so putting out fires in the u.s. and elsewhere, so that is the start of the day for us, that focus on the u.s. inflation print and what it means for the fed in particular. haidi: focused on singapore inflation, gdp, and the central bank, the defective central bank, the singapore monetary policy review, no change when it comes to the policy containing the slope, though with, the center of the currency band, the prevailing slope of the currency band, so no shift there, perhaps the biggest news is they are shifting into policy announcements four times a year from 2024 onwards.

let's get over to avril hong. the quarterly review is a pretty interesting one. avril: yeah, the central bank in singapore typically pushes out these announcements in april and october. those are when the meetings are scheduled. it has had unscheduled meetings since october 20 21 and has tightened five times since then, and we have seen in the past two meetings that they have kept policy unchanged, so this is the move seems to suggest that there needs to be more flexibility in terms of making these decisions, especially with these uncertainties in the market. we have gulf that is fragile, china's economy is faltering, singapore exports also in contract and for almost a year now, so there is that concerned about slowing growth, and on the other said of things, the central bank has had to balance making sure that inflation does

not resurge, and given how the tensions in the middle east as well as oil prices remaining elevated could push up energy cost, there is very real concern here, so giving us four quarterly reviews in a year would be better and giving that flexibility of making those monetary decisions. shery: at least when it comes to the third quarter, the economy seems to have remained more resilient than previously thought. avril: yeah, we were actually on some expectations that we would see the growth for the quarter becoming an 0.6%, but it certainly surprised to the upside, 1% there, so there is some resilience in singapore's third-quarter gdp, and this could potentially give that space to tightened monetary policy if the inflation issue

comes back to the fore. we are also seeing some impact on that hang seng dollar, and it has been extending gains, but the key question is whether it can continue outperforming its other regional peers. some traders estimate that seng dollar is trading in the upper half of the country's currency band, so this could mean there is little room for two significantly appreciate much further versus the currencies of its other major trading partners. shery: avril hong into the port with the latest on singapore's policy decision and there third-quarter gdp numbers. follow more of this on tliv to get commentary and analysis from bloomberg's expert editors. let's bring in our next guest, who says equities will likely be supported into year end, max is

the founder and ceo at sgmc ca ptial. we are using the biggest opportunities, because we had seen some relief in the stock markets with deposit the treasury selloff, but now that we are back with yield surging, is this going to put more pressure on the equity market? >> if you look at the yields from yesterday, to put into context, right? we are coming back on yields coming down because of the geopolitical tensions we have seen in the middle east and a little bit of a move up with respect to yesterday cpi numbers, but we were definitely lower than we were just a few days ago, so we are lower from the highs. the question is is it going to be breaking higher than the recent highs we have seen, and that is going to be the critical thing with respect to global equity valuations going forward. as of now, we do not see it happening in the short term. that is why we remain relatively

supportive and bullish for the last quarter of the year into the equity markets, also because if you look last week we were at very strong support levels across the board for most of the developed market indices, and the supports have held and we have had a strong tactical rebound, which bodes well into the end of the year. the first half of next year will be a different story, but for the next few weeks should be fine and terms of risk appetite. shery: where are the opportunities? >> we still like nasdaq if you are looking at global indices, the technology space within the u.s. we think the recent correction does provide an opportunity. the way we play that is by basically going on calls, because it is coming back off along year to date rally, so protect the gains you have had so far and use some of those gains to buy upside, so basically long calls.

in terms of europe, we remain relatively underweight europe because of the reason that what is happening could be hitting europe more than the u.s., and in terms of southeast asia, we do continue liking india, singapore, especially after the numbers we have seen remains a safe harbor in times where things are uncertain, so we do continue liking singapore. in terms of the way we are looking at deploying, those of the most geographical names. haidi: where do you find value though? some of those markets you are spoken about, the likes of india , it is getting harder and harder to find valuations that come in at a reasonable level. >> valuations are definitely more expensive if you look at india compared to the beginning of the year for sure. that being said, if you take the longer-term approach, so basically if you look at the middle to longer-term, more

graphic story continues to be extremely supportive, and you do not have to look at the large mega caps that make up most of the indices and etf's, but you have to look at the names which are targeting with respect to the demographic massive india, which is likely to be continuing developing and improving, so basically look at those companies which are in the consumer sector or which even help from a finance point of view, a credit point of view. everything which is the middle of the society, because that is likely to continue growing and at a very strong pace, and again the supportive fiscal and structural reforms happening within india, that is likely to continue keeping valuations moving hi, but most of the larger megacap's are fully valued, so that is not exactly the names they will be looking at. haidi: how do you navigate

china? are you still opportunistic that there are pockets of green that you should be looking for? >> within china, the story remains the same that we have set for the last few months now. in order to have a constructive, sustainable rally you need more visibility with respect to everything, which is the political environment and especially everything which is the reforms and approach with respect to the business sectors. now barring that, we are going to be seeing technical rallies like the one we have been seeing over the last few days, but the real question here is whether those will hold. obviously we always look at it from an investment point of view. you should look at the longer-term, so that is the question you should be asking yourself. now it is clear and terms of valuations they are cheap and absolute and relative terms, so definitely having exposure there definitely makes a lot of sense,

so that we do have exposure to china. we are also not going fully overweight china just because of the reasons i mentioned. we need to see more visibility and have more safety in terms of what we expect to be happening there from the geopolitical point of view and the local political point of view to really be completely fully overweight. haidi: always great to chat with you. let's get you back to hong kong where annabelle is looking at some of the movers today. annabelle: a couple of key ones and focus related to the governing story as well, because we have got those kicking off, but fast retailing climbing, you can see the open for tokyo just under 15 minutes into the session now, but this is the reaction that we have had to fast retailing essentially reporting fourth-quarter profit and what are your guidance that beat the average analyst estimate, so robust sales in both domestic and overseas markets, and this was the first time we had seen international

revenue making up over 50% of total group revenue as well. so the four your operating income forecast at ¥450 billion above the average analyst estimate of one of ¥23 billion. another company in tokyo controls convenience stores, but essentially the results pretty much in line with what analysts had been expecting, but what is being highlighted by a lot of different analysts in the market is that the lack of a buyback, and that has been a slight disappointment to investors here. u.s. visibility is also poor, but according to some and mental -- some analysts, thinking that it's operating profit is reachable at a weaker yen is playing into it, and again you're the 150 mark against the greenback once again. haidi: you were talking about

what a different inflation picture it is in china, so we are watching the very closely. and says inflation remains a major theme when it comes to the chinese economy despite some improvement in the chinese data. raymond joins us later to give his outlook. the u.s. and qatar will hold off giving $6 billion in revenue over potential involvement in the hamas attack. we get that next. this is bloomberg. ♪ introducing j.p. morgan personal advisors. hey david. connect with an advisor to create your personalized plan. let's find the right investments for your goals okay, great. j.p. morgan wealth management.

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it's possible. with james hardie™. haidi: president lcc has called for the urgent delivery of humanitarian aid for gaza and

for the gazans remain on their land. to provide safe passage of link civilians. meanwhile, israel has warned israelis and jews around the world to remain vigilant and stay away from demonstrations after hamas called for a day of rage and a mass protest on friday. bloomberg opinion believes israel's allies need to convince prime minister benjamin netanyahu to end military occupation and entering negotiations for lasting peace that gives palestinians a home. let's bring our bloomberg opinion editor who is covered the wars in gaza in 2012 and 2014, and we come to this point after 16 years of israeli government looking to manage hamas, this is been a real turning point, so were do we go from here? >> it is unclear what is going to happen next. we are waiting to see if israel does initiate a threatened ground invasion, and it says it

is targeting hamas, but gaza is such a densely populated area, only 42 limiters along and at its narrowest .6 kilometers wide. there is no just targeting hamas. israel has already leveled dozens of apartment blocks housing many families, so i do not think israel can bomb its way out of the situation and have at the end of it any kind of peaceful resolution between it and the palestinians. there has to be another way foward and i would hope secretary of state blinken and secretary of defense austin have been pushing that line with them, because you cannot bomb your way to peace. shery: israel is telling palestinians to effectuate, but how challenging is that at this point? >> where do they evacuate to?

the border with israel is closed , gaza's border with egypt is also close, so there is nowhere for palestinians to flee from gaza, and people i've been talking to in gaza said they do not know what to do. they want to stay in their homes, because the bombs are falling everywhere, and i have seen also some people starting to post to their goodbyes on social media because they feel this is the end from them -- for them. hamas is not representative of the 2 million palestinians who live in gaza. there is not been an election in gaza since 2006, and to punish an entire population for the barbaric acts of hamas is not a solution, and when we should push back very strongly against. shery: heartbreaking images we

are also seeing from the conflict. ruth pollard with the latest on the israel-hamas war, and we know the biden administration is expected to ask for more foreign aid for israel. that might get freakier now that we are seeing more turmoil on capital, representative steve scalise is dropping out of the race for speakership. billy house joins us now from washington. where to next? >> that is a great question. steve scalise just now told reporters it was not going to happen for him today, not tomorrow, and so he withdraws. that leaves either his rival jim jordan in the seat or others. for now, chaos and more confusion about who will lead the house of representatives.

haidi: billy, what are the options that remain? what are the paths to moving up beyond this real dysfunction? >> well, the trick is that you have to get 217 votes on the house floor to become speaker. no republican right now has anywhere near that number, and the infighting and divisions between different parts of the house republican conference chair just do not seem to be able to want to resolve this, so we could be looking at days or weeks unless somebody comes out of the blue perhaps to pull people together, but right now that person is not known, and there was no clue how this will still be resolved. shery: we started this conversation talking about potential additional aid to israel. what is being done in congress right now? is there any business going on, and can anything get done

without a speaker? >> technically, no, no legislation can get done. there is a bill with some israel ate in it and money could be added to that, but it cannot be moved any further unless a new speaker is found or they pass some rule to allow a temporary speaker to get the legislative functions going, so right now the rest is nothing we can do until they get a speaker. haidi: billy house and washington, d.c. with the latest. you can get a roundup of the stories you need to know to get her to going in today's edition of debris. bloomberg users can get that on the terminal and in the bloomberg anywhere at. customize the settings for the news and industries that matter most to you. this is bloomberg. ♪ commended you. so my best friend sophie says you've been a huge help.

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shery: she was under pressure early in the asian trading session and reversing some of those marginal gains that we saw in the regular session, and it was all really about u.s. consumer inflation data, because his tennis we got cpi numbers the stock index pullback from gains of as much as 1% and really was pressured and finished barely higher, and this to do with the fact that we got consumer inflation slightly harder than expected. we already have harder than expected ppi numbers, and the super core, the biggest gain in a year. we continue to watch the next it is head in the u.s., to of michigan consumer sentiment survey coming out on friday. take a look at what treasuries are doing at the moment, because it was this data set that sent

treasury yields surging. we had that selloff across the curve, we are seeing the selloff pause a little bit. 10-year yield very close to the 4.7% level, and after the 30 year yield surged 16 basis points we also had a weak option filter to the markets. higher yield means dollars gained, and we saw the best day for the greenback following is longest losing streak since march. we have more to come on "bloomberg daybreak: asia" including the boat from new zealand. he will be live in wellington next -- we will be live in wellington next. this is bloomberg. ♪

annabelle: this is "bloomberg daybreak: asia." today in the session it is about changing expectations around the fed once again, because we have the of assimilation print out overnight a little bit harder than what had been expected, followed a similar trend in ppi numbers in the u.s. earlier this week, so probably what this tells us that the chance for a fed rate hike later this year whether it is november, 40% odds of that happening. december also play, but essentially a 25 basis point hike by fed officials could be back on the cards, so you are saying that reflected in the bond space, because big moves in u.s. treasuries stabilizing as we get cash markets back online at the top of the seller, but you are seeing a big move fire for yields is the curve -- across the curve. higher treasury yields leads to movement the dollar, and you are seeing asian currency weakness,

another story, the korean won a particular standing out in even more sensitive currencies, dropping .8 of 1%. moves coming to her and, because of pullback in the wall street session playing out and what we see here for equities. they are dropping across the board create commodities likewise in focus, and erasing the pullback, iron ore down more than 1%, but the other story today is inflation data due out and china as well. haidi: as you mentioned, the latest cpi-ppi print due out later in the day, calculations by bloomberg economics saying the stake might be zero. let's bring out our next guest. the chief greater china economist at anz. i suppose my question is how that potentially can possibly

support a return to better sentiment. do you see policies that would have an effect when the broader theme, a broader narrative is going to be slower growth for longer and deflation? >> absolutely, that is the broader narrative for china to continue to slow down even in the medium-term, but obviously we have seen the government launch lots of different measures trying to secure growth, and we expect this year china will achieve 5%. in fact we have upgraded china gdp from previous e 4.9, and next year we are seeing 4.2 from previously 4%. we also see inflation remained the main theme, some of the stabilization we have been seeing in the past two months will provide temporary relief to the cpi number today. there is no way you can compare

that to the cpi in the u.s. or maybe the rest of the world as well, so i think that we continue to expect that in the short term we may see some stabilization of the economy, but in the medium-term china continues to of this structural slow down over the next two or three years down the road. haidi: the structural slow down, right, because there are so many structural factors that are going to prevent any kind of return to a fast cyclical growth, and we know the leadership does not necessarily one faster cyclical growth. it can they get stable growth though? can they managed to slowdown given some of the structural insufficiencies built into the economy over the past 10 or 20 years? >> the structural slow down is in attainment result from a different sort of long-term policy, including the property

crackdown, and also we are concerned about local government debt issues as well. it is not just about formal government debt but also the hybrid form of indebtedness and the liability of local governments to banks, to investors. so that is the content result of the government trying to reduce local government exposure. i think that lower growth is a given, and in fact you also rightly pointed out that may be the authority is not really caring about the gdp number, because xi jinping wanted to have high-quality development. i think this is the broad narrative for the chinese economy to go forward. shery: are we going to see more restructuring in those lgfv's

that we talked about? >> absolutely, total government debt including official government debt and lgfv altogether. it is not about the absolute number, but we are worried more about the pace of the increase in the rise of government indebtedness. we know that the government is trying to use different sort of measures including disposal and may be debt equities swap, and increasingly the central governments also need to take more responsibility to support infrastructure spending as opposed to letting the local government to carry 100% of the responsibility to support their infrastructure spending. i think all of these measures are trying to slow down the pace of local government investments,

the rise of this exposure. and at the same time they do need to think about what is the best physical arrangement to make the local governments more sustainable. shery: what about corporate entered in this sustainability? what do you make of the changes we are seeing an country garden, evergrande? we are hearing all of those structural plans have to be reassessed at this point. >> the downturn is not easy for developers to meet capital requirements, so from a government point of view what they need to do is restore the confidence of buyers, so the existing projects will receive some more cash flow from the demand side, and we know the government has done a lot in the past few weeks starting from the end of august with the interest rate cuts, with also expanded

eligibility for the first home buyer to buy their second property as well, and some of the local governments have already relaxed previously very tight public tightening measures. so we think that may provide temporary stimulus for the buyers to consider whether they want to buy the property, but at the same time the broad policy remains for china to have houses for sheltering, not interesting or speculating as well, so as long as the government maintains this policy, local buyers will still be very cautious in their property purchase. shery: raymond, good to have your insights. another story that we are following in china, authorities have ordered securities firms and their offshore units to stop

conducting illicit cross-border business. that includes brokering shares and selling funds to investors. the order takes effect at the end of this month. beijing has broadened its clampdown on cross-border capital flows that could risk financial stability. at the same time, and officials have rolled up measures to restore confidence in its local financial markets. coming up, new zealanders vote in the general election to withhold suggesting the main opposition party will come out on top. we will have more from wellington next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ is it possible to fall in love with your home... ...before you even step inside? ♪

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haidi: cylinders will boat in the country's general election on saturday, and polls suggest the main opposition party could come out on top. derek wallbank joins us to from wellington, and they could come out on top, but the path to form a government is going to be an interesting one. >> that is exactly right, matthew has a really great piece on your terminal now, five things to watch in the new zealand election. one of them candidly is the fact that while the opposition does lead, the path to getting to a

governing coalition is going to be very -- it is very uncertain right now. we are not quite certain what that will look like. it looks like they will not get there by themselves, but do you need one party's help, two parties shall -- party's help? and then you start having questions about what you give up to get there. new zealand is very much a place where the margin of victory really does matter when you were putting together a coalition, and so i think that is much as we are watching for what the actual results are, i think one of the biggest things we are looking for is what to the nationals get by themselves, and what does that mean in terms of how much they have to give up to get other coalition parties on board? shery: what are the key issues right now as new zealanders had to the polls -- head to the

polls? >> when people think about new zealand politics they think about jacinda ardern, which is exited stage left and a lot of her policies that were unpopular went with her. chris hopkins disassociated and is running on a little more centrist than may be some of those were, so it very much is a pretty good sized pivot from a we are in this country last year regardless of who wins. haidi: derek wallbank there with a look ahead as kiwis head to the polls. a vote critical in australia is also taking place. if successful, they would advise the government on issues that would impact aboriginal

australians. paul allen has more. paul: early voting has been underway now for the referendum. it proposes a simple yes-no question on a proposal to alter the constitution to recognize the first peoples of austria by establishing an aboriginal and torres strait islander voice. you approve -- do you approve this alteration? the prime minister is delivering on that election promise by holding this referendum. indigenous australians are overrepresented in almost every poor statistic, including poverty, lower academic achievement and poverty rates. the voice is intended to help remedy these ingrained problems. the proposed a body of indigenous australians would directly advise the government on what their communities need.

>> yes makes it possible. paul: polls truly nationwide and almost every state. the no campaign has use this to start out on a lack of detail and dysfunction of the voice, warning that it risks aggravating racial division. >> is divisive and permanent. if you don't know, vote no. paul: successful referendums are rare. 44 have been held since the country was confederated. just eight have passed. shery: as we head toward the boat, take a look at out markets are trading, because we are seeing pressure on the board with kiwi stocks at the moment using .94%. -- .9 f 1%.

also following the asx 200 as we head to another election on saturday, the general election happening as new zealanders debate cost-of-living pressures and reports of rising crime as well as they head to the polls. kospi reversing gains we saw on the previous session and the korean won continuing to lose game despite the fact that we already saw the worst day in more than a week. we had unemployment numbers coming in and line with expectations, a bit of a slackening in the labor market, but way below the 10 year average or post-pandemic average of 3.5%. japanese stocks down .4 of 1% at the moment as we are seeing the japanese yen holding flat. haven demand and risk off meeting to a little bit of strength there. be sure to turn into bloomberg

radio to hear more from the day of big newsmakers and get in-depth analysis from the daybreak team broadcasting live from our studio in hong kong. listen through the app, bloomberg plus or bloombergradio.com. stay with us. ♪

shery: new entry into india's

asset industry can only disrupt distribution of interest funds, not pressing. i ceo spoke about the intensifying competition at bloomberg's new voices event in mumbai. >> the presence of a player like you and so many others coming into this market tells you one thing. this is a good industry to be a part of. and i think perhaps there will be multiple types of disruption. pricing disruption, distribution disruption. i do not think there was a goal for pricing interruption in the asset industry. at the rental that was caused product in this country and on the was caused debt asset management product in the world's us, and it is but a runaway success.

there is not much you can do. >> and regulations will go on pricing even more. >> it will outtake england and other prominent players. and the first product they chose to launch is a product we launched, so i did nothing pricing innovation are just the domains. >> if a player like adani comes in, i am sorry to get the name, but given the affiliations. there will be a big push for that, and that is a pricing game at the end of the day. >> but you cannot principal or zero. the regulations will not do that. >> but that is just one product. >> other passive funds in our industry are at margin point. >> you do not think it will be a

big gain? >> if you look at the passive entry, the first product is a larger mid-cap 260 index fund. it is already us. >> what is going to change at this game? >> distribution. the only impact is bringing more reserves into the country, and that is fantastic for them, but it is also fantastic for all of us. if there is one thing that upsets me, i read this report that there are netflix users in the country and food subscribers. if you can watch netflix and order, you can probably start a 100 rupee isp, and the more it spreads the better it is. a few years ago a bunch of tech people doubled the number of

mutual field customers. it was disruptive distribution. it is good for all of us. >> what if we only had four? i was reading report that said the registrations have several. the number of unique users are only four. >> to make you feel a little worse. >> i think we are only supposed to talking million and billion. >> to give you perspective there are three times the number of users, so we have a long way to go. >> you are saying they will bring in distribution, especially certain players like a discount broker or zero cost broker. how do you fight the network effects of that? because that is not necessarily something that you have. you had a brokerage which you

recently sold, so how are you going to fight? i call it network effects, and it will be a huge challenge. >> actually we will play our own game. you may think of it is disruptive. we have a mutual fund today which has the largest banking franchise in this country. people do not forget knowing it, they cannot even pronounce it. nobody deal with four or five banking management as i companies that are deeply disruptive. we are investing in building a brand the customers like and investing in building our distribution network, and what i have seen over the last five or six years is asset management has become meta-credit, so if you have a problem that performs and solves a problem for the customer, you will grow. at the time of launching, i was

told a new company could make it in equities, but you have no hope in fixed equities. people tell you you need minimum assets under management, and i was like if you dedicate me the assets, how could i have them? it is a strategic problem of the highest order. we found a product, something that solved the customer problem, who worked with the regulator. we were agile and bring it to market forces and we built a $5 billion business. haidi: that was the ceo spooking to the bloomberg senior editor at the new voices event in mumbai. i am here in wellington and you can see behind me the buildings of parliament, including the executive wing and the beehive, and we are hours away before new zealanders head to the polls, and this is interesting.

contrasted against the elections we saw, this is not about personality politics. this is about policies and about the economy, cost-of-living crisis that many parts of this country have really felt since the rbnz tightening since inflation started to bite, so it will be quite interesting to results. the polls starting to see a bit more of a lift for the labour party. we are still seeing a way forward when it comes to the opposition national party, but they will need the support of smaller parties like libertarian and new zealand first, and what those parties one is concessions will make things different indeed. shery: very different picture from the last two elections with jacinda mania all over the country, but we are watching a very busy day in australia. we have the voice referendum, and major opinion polls indicating the indigenous voice

might be defeated. it was a very divisive campaign. my key question will be what that means for the prime minister, who actually took the lead in this referendum, but ahead of the weekend we have trading in china to look forward to, so these are the songs we will be watching. retail sales of this company sought record high single digit growth for the third quarter. a chinese company logging growth. shares jumping 55% for the second quarter. wenzhou automobile as approved a motion to invest in ev's autonomous driving arm. we look ahead to the start afraid in hong kong, shanghai, and shenzhen. this is bloomberg. ♪ hello! it's what happens when marketers group customers

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