's head ofon the growth, i was n and listening to bloomberg surveillance as i do every day. i heard the atlanta fed is forecasting 5.4% growth in q4. a number of banks are forecasting 4.9% growth in q4. deb the >> welcome to bloomberg where is this growth coming from and what is the fed going to do about it? jason crow there are two main markets. i matt miller. we are down on the s&p 500 more drivers. are we i -- jason: there are two than 1%. main drivers. 4328 is the level. are we in the beginning of the yields continue to rise. year? in a fixed investment of 23 facilities. the 10-year yield is at 4.9127, carlyle's data suggested another up another eight basis points as 18% growth in the second investors sell bonds. quarter. we have another 20 year option we saw the retail sales report right now. earlier this week and much of the last couple of options we that is because the consumer has not been affected by the have are ugly. increase in interest rate. we will see how this one goes. if you can think about the 43% bloomberg u.s. dollar index is of households that have climbing to 1275. mortgages, the average effective

interest rate is still 3.6%. nymex crude is coming back up it is so lower than it was in from tension in the middle east to $88.33. 2020. there is some dispersion. some people are struggling and when you get higher yields and a stronger dollar and more there is a big increase in consumer debt. expensive crude oil, that is difficult for equities. consumer debt and credit card debt is actually only 1/12th the as a result, we see the selloff. in the middle east, there stock of mortgages. remains very high tension. the household sector was performing well and there was an the world leaders we have heard from our discussing this lately. industrial sector boom. sonali: the strong economy comes pres. biden: i was saddened by with a backdrop of a lot of concerns about a steepening of the enormous loss of life the yield curve. yesterday in the hospital in gaza. what is happening in your view? based on the information, it jason: it is a supply overhang appears a result of an erratic issue. rockets fired. we have a federal government in the u.s. running deficits of >> what happened is a massacre nearly 2 trillion dollars at that cannot be ignored and will full employment. that implies if you have a not pass without accountability. decline in tax see -- tax these crimes must come to an end day. >> all of this needs to be receipts or an increase in payment, it could rise to around

established and those responsible must be held two point $9 trillion. accountable. we must all redouble our efforts this would not be a problem if the fed were have -- had money to protect civilians from this war. >> i call for immediate to reduce this debt. but they are reduced by only a humanitarian cease-fire to provide sufficient time and $1 trillion annual rate. space to help realize ideals and private portfolios are being asked to absorb net neutral look at the epic human suffering we are witnessing. trillion -- absorb net deficits. >> president biden is a powerful leader. if you tells israel enough is enough and you have to stop the fighting immediately, and it i think, these are legitimate questions about the sorts of allows for helping the yields and prices which all of palestinian people in gaza, then this debt issuance will have to it is possible to begin the journey of maybe opening a clear. sonali: what about the idea of the white house is looking for possibility for a political $100 million for aid when it horizon. matt: let's bring in jordan comes to ukraine and israel. with the geopolitical tensions fabian, a white importer out of washington dc. and supply constraints of the treasury market, what does this we heard from a number of mean in terms of how much different world leaders that president biden's speech this volatility there could be ahead? morning was among the most watched. jason: i think quite a lot.

first, you have this question of it was passionate, well delivered. what did we hear from him in the for longer. you have tools spent in the terms of our support of israel? jordan: it was the full embrace economy today that remain above levels. of israel and prime minister that is consistent with the feds benjamin netanyahu as israel to percent target. prepares for a possible ground and inflation around 2.5%, invasion of gaza. getting down to 2% could take he said the u.s. will stand with longer than people suppose. israel as long as u.s. -- the if short-term rates go down for a year or two, holding the 10 u.s. stands which is forever hearing it he said they will be year note at 4.5% yields does offering in the coming days a package to congress to help get not seem too attractive. funding for weapons to support there is no increase supply israel's offensive. relative to what is expected. i think people could imagine he also supported israel's account that it was not responsible for the deadly another 35 to 50 basis points of backup in yields beyond the 10 explosion at the gaza hospital year's majority. matt: what do you think the fed which inflamed opinion across the arab world. furthermore against israel. will do here? 12 out of 19 members have dots the president is taking a firm stand. obviously tensions are very high that indicated one more hike still in the region. matt: in terms of some of his this year. but there were dots indicating

because next year. does that make sense in this messages, which were that we need to be the light in the kind of economy with this kind darkness and this happen to us, of inflation? jason: i think the fed is done. something very hurtful like this with 911. i think the back of in yields has done a lot of work for them. we responded and in some ways we made mistakes. i think they could have stopped do you think that message was earlier this year or sooner but well heard? jordan: it remains to be seen. there was an expectation of rate cuts that were coming in, there was implicit messaging consistent with their forecast. from president biden not to get bogged down in the type of owing forward, next year, or quagmire the u.s. ended up in maybe in six months time, we during iraq and afghanistan will be in a situation where members advocate rate hikes -- following the 9/11 attacks which would be compared to hamas and israel on october 7. advocate for rate cuts. when this comes, it will be a israel and the u.s., the biden measured approach. administration, agreed to some it will be a rate cuts, then sort of mechanism to get went a meeting to see how data comes in, then think about humanitarian aid to the gaza second cuts. strip to help the people i think the outlook for 2024 suffering there. but there were differences between what the u.s. said would closely resembles 1998, rather happen and what israel said happened. than the easing we have become which was there would be limits on how much aid could go in. accustomed to. it is a more gradual one to

three rate cut approach. it appears that israel is selectively listening to the sonali: when we think about what advice president biden has. is ahead of us, there is the we will see if this applies to bond story in these thoughts lori. the warnings issued about their military offensive. matt: thank you. in stocks, ai supposed to be a huge part of the story but carlyle was out with research jordan fabian reporting on president biden in israel. the tensions in the middle east with fighting words about how to sidestep some risks of ai coming being felt in markets, up with earnings reports what is potentially the energy markets. the concern moving forward? oil rose after iran called for jason: there are two issues for an embargo against israel. investors. first is to separate hype from bloomberg tv anchor alix steel has been covered commodities for reality and there is a lot of both. years and joins us on this. secondly is to take the reality what do we see in terms of the and math it into income gains? statements. i heard there is a five dollar where will gains really accrue? risk premium in oil. in terms of the embargo, how thus far the enthusiasm has been important is it? alix: the market is issuing a a big lift to markets. the seven artists stocks most huge call for the oil price. exposed to ai or have done the in terms of the embargo itself, most investment in the backbone of these systems accounted for it would be immaterial. israel hardly imports oil from virtually all of the s&p 500 gains this year. them. that is where i am not sure the

but it is the increase of oil market has it right. that would be a concern in the it is really downstream market. i was covering oil back during indications the way that companies take advantage of new the arab spring when oil was technology to improve their below $150 -- was above $150. streamlined processes and increase the productivity of their workforce. there is a big difference this it is really related to software time around. saudi arabia is cutting back on engineering, increasing the production which means they are productivity and reducing the leaving oil in the ground. time it takes for giving code and the u.s. is able to produce for pharmaceuticals and biologics. over 13,000 barrels a day which is a huge counter indicator as then there is the entire well. matt: how much of an impact is consumer experience and the way businesses relate to can tumors. a number of cases that can be low u.s. stockpiles? we have a lot but have drained a processed in the number of insurance claims with the given lot from the spr. number of employees all has the i was this affecting the market? potential to explode upward. over the next two years where we alix: it is huge. will see about the ia revelation we have 350 million barrels of is the sponsors and management oil in the spr, strategic petroleum reserve. teams that actually harness the that sounds like a lot but is technology to produce their own profitability and some of the 40% of where we were back in market pricing really focuses on 2020.

you cannot drain to zero. companies at the epicenter of you need to keep some around or the shock itself. they are going to trail some of else things go wrong with the these stocks and broader tank. a lot of people are using a lot companies that take this of oil because diesel and jet advantage of this deed technology. fuel crack spreads are so high matt: i have a little curveball. that they would keep pumping and i have been noticing talk about using oil to make a lot of money off those products. ozempic and wegovy, these matt: thank you. alix steel talking to us about obesity drugs that seem to have oil as a result of these morphed into ai junior. tensions and a result of the ia what do you think about the data. effect of this shock, caloric outside of the middle east, investors are keeping a close basket purchases, or a need for eye on treasury yields. diabetes treat. there are also seeing reaction it seems to have affected a lot to the latest year option of of stocks. treasury bills. jason: anything where there is a bloomberg correspondent liz traditional approach that relies mccormick is here with the on trial and error, where you details. we saw that the last couple of are trying to lie on desk to options were not quite going swimmingly. rely on tests -- where you are how do we see the 20 year option turnout? liz: the treasury department got trying to rely on tests, that is where you need to condense the a little reprise because everyone thought would get an time it takes to bring a product

other tail. the auction result came around. to market and find ways to produce molecules and measure their effectiveness. to sharply reduce timetables. the auction result was a little over a few basis points below what we call the wi. thus makes senses from my i am looking at some breakdown from some dealers and the stats perspective. were good. -- this makes sense for my perspective. matt: thank you for joining us. the bid to cover a measure of demand was not stellar but some other stuff was good. jason thomas from carlyle, head it may be the run-up in the hills and twenty-year security of research. is somewhat of a dog since he and our own reporter, sonali basak. started reissuing it a few years the house has just finished its ago. second vote this week for a new this will continue above the speaker. 30-year. jim jordan is not it. 80 people thought it was to details next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ♪ juicy to give up but over all, the options have been a strut -- the auctions have been a struggle because there is concerns about the fed going higher for longer and more terms of the -- more term premiums. matt: we have seen a 20 year

yields a fight most other parts of the curve. i see 5.219% compared to the next best yields on my screen at 5.212 for the 2-year yield. is there a live demand for this? we have seen a lot of people piled into the 20 year plus treasury atf this year. it has not been a great bet but does the demand hold? liz: someone said, why are people going into the tlt when the market is underwater. it does not make sense. first of all, it is like when people buy stocks on the way down, hoping it will come back. people who want stocks on the way down are kind of hedging as we fall into a recession or super hard landing. for now, mostly people are weary of the long and day. there is just too much risk.

putting your money in a money market mutual fund is the thinking. the long end has been troublesome. we had fed speakers -- it is a topic i love. they were speaking about the higher term premium may be doing some of their job and rising high rates for longer. it is a little bit of the not catch falling eyes in the long end. matt: thank you for joining us. liz mccormick talking to us about the twenty-year auction. it did not tail as we thought it was likely to. coming up, jason thomas of carlisle joins to talk about the fate path. and the ai obsession. this is bloomberg. ♪ j.p. morgan wealth management knows it's easy to get lost in investment research. get help with j.p morgan personal advisors. hey, david! ready to get started? work with advisors who create a plan with you, and help you find the right investments. thanks to avalara, we can calculate so great getting to know you, let's take a look at your new investment plan. ok, great! this should have you moving sales tax automatically. in the right direction. thanks jen. get ongoing advice; and manage your investments in the chase mobile app. matt: let's get to the latest on the house searched for a new

avalarahhhhhh speaker. what if tax rates change? we bring in kailey leinz gary ahhhhhh filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh business license guidance? ahhhhhh -cross-border sales? -ahhhhhh -item classification? -ahhhhhh gensler earlier. does it connect with acc...? ahhhhhh let's stick to the boat. ahhhhhh ahhhhhh jim jordan is once again not speaker of the house. and your store was also the first time you realized... kailey: the second round is not the charm. well, we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner he lost more votes. that always puts you first. he slipped two members for him (we did it) but for more turned against 10. start today at godaddy.com 22 members of the republican, conference to not vote for him. we are expecting members of the republican conference to get into a meeting now, and another airing of grievances a high enclosed doors that we have seen play out several times. we will see if a third boat is called today. it jordyn spokesperson says he does not intend to drop out. but seeing that he lost support yesterday, things are getting worse for him, not better. the house is still left

stagnant. matt: is there any average -- is there any chance for something else? maybe patrick mchenry who is speaker pro tem? kailey: there has been a growing conversation about expanding the pro tem powers of the interim speaker. that is something that would require democratic support. publications are reluctant because they might have to make concessions to democrats to get this happened. it is not something that the republican conference wants to pursue. the longer this goes on, the more it may become an option. israel and trying to avoid a government shutdown. we will see if the motion is in the file to expand the powers of patrick mchenry. that is something we will be watching closely. matt: kailey leinz standing outside of congress after the

second failed vote for speaker. coming up, the head of u.s. rates strategy at sociology matt: this is bloomberg markets, i am matt miller peering at, investors are testing the risks numeral -- at social general. of middle east tensions and possibility of outlook on this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ♪ the beige book for monetary policy. and it looks like the economy is doing better than many previously thought. let's discuss that with carlyle

matt: -- jon: i'm jon erlichman and welcome to bloomberg markets. matt: i am matt miller. we have seen higher rates, stronger dollar, and higher prices for oil.

it has driven equities down. the s&p is down zero at 4342. you can see rates continue to climb. right now, the 10-year yield is at 4.88 but we have seen it well over 4.90. we had a 20 year auction. the are still obviously at the highest level we have been since 2007. the bloomberg u.s. dollar index is climbing, 1273 right now. oil is up to $88.80. this is west texas intermediate. brent crude is still over $90. a lot of moves putting pressure on equities. jon: it was interesting seeing stocks not benefiting from the rise of oil. so many focused on what was happening with bond yields. that is the macro story. a lot of people have been focusing on what united had to say after a strong stretch of

performance. higher jet fuel costs are a concern. and the fact we continue to watch things unfold in israel and that has impacted flights to tel aviv. proctor and gamble, an interesting story in this inflationary environment, perhaps selling less but able to pass on prices to consumers. investors are leaning in with pmg shares up 2% -- with procter & gamble shares up 2%. we heard from goldman sachs yesterday. morgan stanley stock continues to struggle right now. the wealth management challenges and what is happening on the investment banking side have been worries for some investors. the cfo was indicating he is hopeful we will see a return to dealmaking. if that includes ipo's, that was one benefit for nasdaq which is holding gains today after its benefits of public offerings

like instacart, which was a helping hand to nasdaq's business. matt: morgan stanley taking a big hit today. over the last five years, still the best performer of all the big bank stocks with reinforced dividends of 88%. in the second-best, j.p. morgan, is up 58%. so it is far and away the big winner. stocks repairing losses after the 20 year treasury auction. there is less bearishness as we can see by the 10-year yield coming back. here is what alliancebernstein had to say about -- what sean of alliancebernstein had to say earlier this morning. >> eventually yields will come back down. it may not happen immediately. you may not see a long and of a curve until the fed actually starts cutting rates.

jon: let's bring in the head of u.s. rates strategy at sociale generale. what was your reaction? does the 20 year sale give you thoughts on whether we see an end to the selloff? >> it was a positive and we did not see another tailed option for sure. last week we had a couple options -- auctions so there is some level of difficulty the market is having in taking down some high especially on the long end of the curve. that said, the 20 year point of the curve was the cheapest of the back end so it is not surprising the market was able to take down additional supply. broadly speaking, you look at a variety of metrics who are seeing a supply and demand imbalance. you have a variety of investors

that stepped away from the markets over the last six months to eight months. foreign investors have not been taking down the ration supplies so primary dealers have to take down a lot of the initial supply coming to the market which is not a good sign, especially for demand for the long and. matt: a number of strategists and analysts point out that previously debts and deficits have not had that much of an effect on the race market. i think steven major, in his vehicle the, or apology -- in his mea culpa, or apology, may have said that. do you think bond vigilantes are coming back? subadra: demands are more imbalanced now than in the past. a contributor has been the fed.

the fed has been unwinding its balance sheet. they have been one of the largest borrowers over the last few years and decades. they have contributed meaningfully to the decline. now you are seeing them step away from the markets, as well as the fact we are getting a lot more supply of treasury, because of rising deficits. this imbalance is a lot more pronounced than it has ever been, even in my career. we had a budget surplus and the deficit has pretty much gone one way but we have had different people come in to take down the supply. now you are seeing people step away from the market which is a lot more difficult for the supply to get absorbed. jon: let's talk about market pricing when it comes to rate moves. the markets also weighing what the fed governor christopher moeller said -- christopher

waller said that they may be restraint with a couple weeks ago, what is the narrative in the market around the next fed meeting? subadra: waller's commas confirmed the fed is not poised to hike again at the november fed meeting. we have heard from fed protest -- fed people, like lorie logan and other famous hawks, saying the back of the yield curve is already doing the job for the fed. for the most part, from november, i think the fed will sit this one out. the question is whether the fed will have to hike again in december or perhaps january if the data continues to be as strong as it has been. we had very strong inflation and cpi. pretty much in line with consensus. and a very strong retail sales bridge. the economy is hot from the

third quarter momentum. the question is, are we going to see a slow down the momentum? that is where we have to see the fed talk before the november meeting before they look toward tightening policy in december or jenny worry if the data continues to remain strong. matt: this morning, i heard someone forecasting fourth-quarter growth at 4.9%, which i thought was amazingly high until michael mckee reminded me the atlanta fed forecast for the court -- the current quarter is 5.4%. with this kind of growth in the retail numbers we saw, every data point we seem to see goes against the fed's mission in a way. are they going to be able to get inflation down to 2%? subadra: inflation has been coming off quite steadily. the pace of moderation has actually been going to wear the fed has wanted.

in some respects, this feels like a very goldilocks environment where growth is surprising to the upside and inflation seems to be coming down ever so gradually. the strength in the third quarter definitely has a lot of us by surprise. is it because of the summer splurge? perhaps the taylor swift impact on the economy. for the most part, we are expecting the economy to slow down in the fourth quarter. things like student loan repayments and the consumer perhaps retrenching in the fourth quarter might turn out to be very different than what we saw in the third quarter. our expectation is that from here on out into next year, there will perhaps be a slow down in the momentum for growth. the third quarter might have been a novelist that perspective. matt: so great to get your take.

really helpful context. socgen. subadra rajappa talk to -- talking to us about rates and growth. coming up, netflix with its rates and out supported tears are the focus. we will discuss with mark douglas. this is bloomberg. ♪

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supported tear. it is not just about running ads. as part of pushing to live sports, they will skip traditional commercials in favor of integrated sponsorships.

to live sports, they will skip traditional commercials in favor of integrated sponsorships. there is a lot of watch. matt miller there is a heck of a lot. i have learned so much by watching lucas shaw interview ted sarandos at the screen time

event in l.a. it is even more exciting for me. mark douglas knows more about this than all of this combined. he is a real insider in the digital advertising space. he joins us in new york. great to have you with us. thank you for joining us. netflix earnings coming out after the bell. there has been a real change in the way -- i was going to stay the way the industry works, but netflix is the leader of the industry. what do you think about the push for profitability in streaming by a leader that already seems to be able to etch out everyone else anyway. mark: if you think way back to the growth of cable, at first it was not that profitable. as it kind of matured, the leaders took hold. netflix was the leader for a long time and the prophets kicked in. netflix is leading the way.

you will probably see consolidation. so hopefully some other players increase profitability. the thing about the password sharing in particular is it is almost like a revenue backlog. it gives more predictability over the next few years then i think people feel about the company. they can just bring consumers over with more subscriptions and less password sharing. and have this every quarter. jon: maybe it also gives a little more time to experiment on the ad front and what works the best. one of the things i heard their team talking about, speaking to advertisers this week, was the idea that maybe you have one add or one marketing push during the first show you watch. but then you may be able to get a couple episodes of a show streaming for free, because they are already getting a sense from ad tier's scriber's or users that they are watching for 8 --

from ad tier subscribers or users that they are watching for some time. mark: this speaks to netflix managing to have a legacy add business so the ads do not have to be 32nd commercials or 15 seconds. they can innovate in terms of the ad unit. to see them doing this is a good sign. i do think where their business might be struggling as they are entering a market. the grand tv advertising market, like the big tv networks is not a market that has been growing. it focuses on the thousand largest advertisers. you have netflix attaining growth or trying to, in a market that is not growing. the real innovation for netflix will come when they stand out only those big advertisers and start to embrace midsize

businesses and small businesses on netflix. if you want to grow the business, you have to grow the number of cups -- of customers. jon:'s -- matt: speaking of that, how does the advertising look to you? in this inflationary period, as we growth in the economy at large, is advertising picking up? mark: for brand advertisers, it is flat or may a bit down. for performance advertisers like amazon, meta, microsoft, it is up. the big networks are all trading market share but small and midsized advertisers want to grow. often in the worst of economic times, they invest the most for growth because they see this as an opportunity to gray market shares. performance advertising is doing great and plain advertising is stable. not declining but not growing.

matt: a company went out and were trading at 30 and a month later trading at 30. but what do you think about the business? mark: playbill ironically became a mountain customer -- a mntn customer when they became an ipo. i speak highly of the company and dems about svb very importantly. the number of customers, people have done a great job with this and they are being rewarded. ipos are going by i'm -- by all measures really well. jon: getting back to something you were referencing with netflix. a massive pool of advertisers you could be teaming up with. they are talking about title sponsors for individual shows. we have seen versions of this for years but they have a large library. this is open the door to have a bigger brand but also ace waller

brand that is the title sponsor of a show? mark: that has been one of the challenges. do they have rights to show as on all their shows? the answer is no. so renegotiating those rights on all the shows to make sure they do have rights. for them to expand the number of advertisers, they have to focus on that. it takes more technology. they have to basically give rights on all their shows to show whatever ads make sense. it is really key. if you look at fang stocks -- i forget what they are called right now. matt: the divine 7 -- the magnificent seven. mark: yes. they have to get into this space. matt: matt: maybe there is someone they can find? mark: even apple does performance advertising on the

app store. they focus on small to midsize to build. matt: mntn has been a successful business in this industry and you see a number of arms. what is the ipo market look like to you? mark: [laughter] i don't think i am allowed to say that i am not opposed to the idea. how does that sound? matt: that sounds good to me. he is not opposed to the ipo idea and maybe netflix is looking a target. jon: we appreciate you. mark douglas from mntn. we also will find out what is happening with tesla after the bell and what happens with jeep, which continues to raise prices on its wrangler and my price out some boiled customers. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jon: this is bloomberg markets. i am jon erlichman with matt miller. time for today's "for what it's worth." how about 50%? that is for -- that is how much tesla's third quarter profits have come down since the start of this year. much has to do with steady price cuts that tesla rolled out throughout the psalm or the. the strategy seems to be working. analysts predict more than 1.8 million tesla deliveries this year. that will be more than a 40% increase this year from last year. matt: it is fascinating. a lot of this has to do with all the price because we have seen from tesla. if i am not mistaken, they had prophets cut by 20% at the beginning of the year.

auto markers like ford, gm, and stellantis are looking at 12% in a good year. because i can afford to take prices down and still make a good share. we are joined by the cover of the auto sectors. is tesla willing to take a bite off is profitability and grab market share from income and start trying to come online? >> absolutely. elon musk has stated this is the strategy. tesla has a huge advantage. they have a huge advantage on this. they have driven down their costs and are nonunion. elon musk is very -- this is the plan. everyone always of the story with tesla was to wait until there was more competition from other carmakers. here it is and he is cutting prices to a level they cannot sustain. jon: i want to talk about another automaker, the lantus,

specifically the jeep brand. you did an excellent piece that gets into the market they have been catering to recently. higher price vehicles are catching on. but may be a risk to their core customer. gabby: i want to be clear that we have seen prices rise dramatically in off the auto industry. if you go back five years, the average price is a 30% increase. but if you compare that to the jeep wrangler which is the heart of the jeep brand, they raise prices 40% on average over this time. i think all cars have gotten more expensive and this is kind of a strategy that started back with sergio marconi was the ceo of fiat chrysler. this environment making small commodity cars with the, competing with korean and japanese automakers? is do what we know which is big

profitable trucks and suvs which was great until interest rates started rising and inflation got higher. jeep, on account of this -- on top of this, jeep has a golden goose and brand loyalty. a wrangler is a very unique vehicle. you can drive over rocks, and through the ones. you can do things. that is real and unique. jon: i am test driving a wrangler rubicon 392. it is a jeep wrangler but they shoveled in a v8 engine. the price is $92,400. so it is over 100,000 dollars when you're out the door. thank you for joining us. gabrielle coppola joining us. with jon erlichman, i am matt miller, and this is bloomberg.

♪ returns. avalarahhh ahhh

romaine: is this our anxiety entering a new phase. live from bloomberg headquarters, i am in bostick katie: i am katie greifeld. we are taking you off to the close. it is a down day in the stock market. the s&p 500 is off by 0.8%. a little off session lows but close. the nasdaq 100