>> good morning and welcome to "day break australia. we are counting down to asia major market open. fresh vol volatility. the s&p closes as treasury yields retreat. >> hamas frees two more hostages as calls grow to rethink a ground invasion. >> and prime minister on geo political tensions in the middle east cost of living issues. u.s. futures are coming online. and .10 -- .2 of 1%. ahead of tech earnings.

and traders continue to and ahead of tech earnings season and watching treasury. traders continue to seek haven. 10-year yields slumping after topping that 5% level the first time it touched that level in 2001 and tense volatility. we continue to see downsize for the dollar falling the most in a month and reverse of lowering u.s. yields and oil gaining .8 of 1% and fallen the most in more than two weeks as we continue to see more signs from israel that they would hold off on a broader ground incursion of

gaza. hamas militants have freed two more hostages. let's get more from our political news director. with the release of the hostages, does it signal that more could be released soon and seeing progress on this front? >> well, that is the hope of families of those held hostage and who were taken by hamas on october 7, but unclear. we have seen now four hostages released, two, a mother and daughter late last week and two today, two older women who had been on a kibbutz near gaza and were released today but no indication there may be more or a lot more. unclear at this point, the u.s. and other western nations are trying to encourage israeli

government that worked and president netanyahu to rethink the ground strategy or to delay any ground war saying again that if there is concerns about getting in there to take hostages and think about the strategy and longer of that kind of war is delayed, the more likely it may be they are rethinking it or calibrating that strategy perhaps not looking to go so big in gaza and the brewing humanitarian crisis in gaza and what could happen to civilians there if there were a ground war. >> we heard from john kirby today. what does he have to say about deploying more u.s. forces to the middle east? >> john kirby told us that they are deploying more military

might in the middle east, more carrier ships are being sent there and he says as a deterrent to the war -- the war effort going on various fronts. they are saying let this be a warning to hezbollah in the north that they should not be looking to attack on the northern front and again the message is we don't want this to expand. he is saying by having more u.s. military might they are helping with the war not to expand in the region. >> we see aid coming in through the raffia border crossing.

they are trying to get more aid into gaza and difficult and so much is needed that the trucks that are let in is only a trickle but at least starting to come in and u.s. and other western nations that are visiting israel are saying let us get more aid into gaza. >> bloomberg political news director. take a closer look at that growing crisis as the war grinds on. director for the middle east and north africa division. can you give us a sense of what the humanitarian situation is like in gaza just now?

>> the situation is a manmade disaster. we have no like that, no water, no fuel coming in now for two weeks, the result is much of the population has no clean water and relying on ground water which the u.n. has entirely unfit for human consumption, no like that and fuel and hospitals aren't able to provide basic services to patients and surgeries are being done without andes these yeah. and 80% of the population relied on humanitarian aid. a few trucks of aid have been let in by rafa but that is insufficient to meet the needs. the u.n. has sent more than 100 and so every day, every hour

that passes that is. >> there have been protests against its author tarn rule. and hamas is there got to power by force, but in the current situation which palestinians and gaza are under heavy bombardment and 5,000 people have been killed. the blame is not being placed at the feet of hamas but at the israeli forces that are wiping away entire families that are reducing city blocks to rubble. there are different views of hamas did on october 7.

there are heinous attacks that are war crimes. but the blame for what is happening is not only with israel but with the perception that united states and europe are failing to failing for calls for aid. and pressure has been made in other contexts. >> we are seeing some aid being entered into gaza but the border is effectively still shot. what do you think is behind egypt's reluctance to accept refugees? >> it has been a concern that this would lead to a permanent brooklyn refugee population. when israel was founded in 1948, hundreds of thousands of palestinians were forced to flee or expel, the majority of gaza's population is those descendants and they are afraid we are

witnessing a 1948. they have to provide refuges that are at risk for their lives but they have reasons to be skeptical that they will be allowed to return. egypt should allow aid in and people seeking and meeting refuge for safety for their lives a way in, but at the same time, israel should uphold its legal duty to allow that population to return when the hostilities subside. >> we have been reporting today that the hostages were released and delaying a plan to invade gaza. is there inevitability of that happening? and what do you anticipate the damage will be and the amount of human suffering? >> it is difficult to and hostages should be released, holding hostages is a war crime

under international law. the devastation could be dire. the devastation today is dire. you have a reality in gaza where more than 42% of all the homes in gaza are have been damaged or destroyed. and people are displaced. i noted earlier the casualty figure. we don't worry a future prospect but if and when a ground invasion but every day that passes is 300 palestinians are killed every day and 100 children. there needs to be an end to the unlawful attacks and bloodshed because every day that passes we are getting further down the abyss. there is a risk of atrocities and the world must act before it is too late.

>> you have to remember what is happening at the other end of israel, 60,000 people evacuated around from towns around the northern border of lebanon. and see a picture unfold at the other end of israel? >> it is a concern. we have seen in the last two weeks that there have been you know weapons fired in both directions and well documented israel dropping white toes forous on the a level of

violence and "carnage" that is unprecedented in the modern history of palestine and real risk that things continue to deteriorate and urgent moment to act. another moment that we pass another moment that we leave hundreds of millions of people at risk of "carnage" and bloodshed. >> can you feel any reason to be optimistic? any reason this might be brought to a less painful end than we are seeing at the moment? >> honestly it is difficult. we have gone into darkness that is hard to project. we think the release of hostages are a welcome step but there have been some convoys voice are a welcome step.

but they are a drop in the motion. and you know, 34 or so, several dozen of trucks of aid that have gone in. so let's hope there are better things to come but i don't see much optimism but it's going to fall on the shoulders on leaders in the united states and europe and key countries in asia to be much more vocal calling on parties to adhere to humanitarian law and allow vital aid to enter and address some of the root causes of the violence and israel's apartheid against gaza and israeli forces. so long as we fail to recognize and deal with those root causes we are only bound even if we get a cessation of possibilities to

keep repeating these cycles of bloodshed. >> palestine director for the middle east and north africa division. thanks for joining us. >> we continue to see the crisis in the middle east unfold and hearing from senior officials that chinese foreign minister will be visiting washington later this week and will be in washington from thursday to saturday meeting with the secretary of state anthony blinken and white house national security adviser and raising the subject of the israel-hamas war and there has been israel china's stance on the war. washington is strongly supporting israel. on top of this ongoing crisis, u.s. official looking to engage invasion of ukraine and weapons'

program and the biden administration saying the meeting was part tore manage u.s.-china relations but they did not clarify this will lead to a summit between president xi and president biden. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> check on markets here. just under 45 minutes for aussie stocks. futures, we are pointing to losses, fourth straight session in the red. and public holiday on monday and trading in negative territory and we are setting up for a

session in equities. and the japanese yen close to 150 mark. we haven't seen that being touched and that intervention risk is still live for the currency. you can see here that is a 15-year high for the currency and we have been tracking it very close to that 160 level. very key levels. 150 and 160 on the euro. a lot of the different market gyrations of what is happening in the bond space and yesterday, it was dominated by the views of bill saying it has gone too far. 6% on the 10 year yield but big pull back and what we are seeing in the early parts of trading for bonds. >> that volatility leading to

more concerns about where equities go from here and pressure in the session. bloomberg's micro strategist joins us and vince sent, for our viewers, u.s. stocks not earnings yield basis. we heard from u.b.s. wealth management that the risk premium was not that alarming. where do we go from here? >> this week is going to be interesting. the rally was traded by bill ak man and that things have gone too far. andrew: couple of programs that the market was very short. equities as well over the last week. he definitely hit the right side and got things rolling. as of tuesday in new york time, there is a big treasury issuance.

141 billion of treasury between tuesday and thursday and 20 billion of issuance. this could be a momentary reprieve and as the treasury yields go, the equity market will go. and google earnings. and tech will continue to drive and keep equities higher. if google disappoints, it will point to a negative for tech earnings and if it doesn't show up, not likely that equity gains are going to show up each other. >> the bond auction, how much of the bond story is a supply story and fed not buying anymore. there is a supply story. a lot coming out this week and see what they take down and what is left over. we had a couple of

disappointments last week which left the market makers wearing a lot of their issuance. if that is the same case, hardly lightly and what the fed does in fed speak down the road. calming neutral fed talk does not help the long end of the treasury market. higher inflation expectations and that's not helping the big picture and deepening the curve. >> thank you. roundup of the stories to get your day going in today's edition of "daybreak. you are only getting news on the industries and assets that you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪

and a.i. infrastructure over the next two years. let's bring in australian government reporter. ben, this deal is little bit of time in the making, what are the details? >> three primary aspects. an investment australian dollars over two years. upgrade the number of its data pricing in australia. and melbourne and stage two going to be collaborating with new south wales to create an academy that growing australia's

high tech skills and talking about 300,000 students being trained in security and artificial intelligence and the third level is the subject security platform and australian skills direct ate to create a cybersecurity shield which will use microsoft data to protect australians from a growing number of online attacks in recent years. >> this was announced as part of the prime minister's visit to the u.s. nice little good yes he can take heem. home. we are expecting something in the critical minerals and australia is one of the largest

supplier of minerals such as lithium and america is a consumer of the signature reduction act. and big announcement on tuesday and wednesday, that is the peak day and have the state dinner at the white house and bilateral meeting and joint press conference. >> ben, back home, he is facing pressure to stop by in israel as many other leaders have. how is that going to look after a black tie dinner at the white house? >> the white house dinner has been scaled back a little bit because of the situation in israel. they don't want to put on too much of a show. i think he will face questions about this, but no doubt that the polls in australia, 64% of

australians want to stay out of the israel-hamas conflict and indicates politically that nothing he has to lose. he has broke his i tinary. >> we will be watching those diplomatic. we have more to come on "day break australia." this is bloomberg. ♪ you want to be able to provide your child with the tools or resources they need. with reliable internet at home, through the internet essentials program, the world opened up. fellas, fellas. that's how my son was able to find the hidden genius project. we wanted to give y'all the necessary skills to compete with the future.

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>> take a look at how u.s. futures are trading. a little bit of upside after stocks finishing mixed. s&p filing to their lowest level and we are expecting tech earnings season to kick off. treasuries, a mix as well, but we have seen safe haven for 10-year yield after topping 5%. a lot of volatility in the markets right now. and earning season and next guest thinks that expectations look too high. and victoria, chief market strategist.

victoria, always good to have you with us. we have seen companies lagged in their corporate results and really punished quite badly and underperforming the benchmark by almost 4% on the day of results. what is this telling us? >> interesting, when you look at the names that have done well versus those that have not, those that have not are being punished than those being rewarded for doing well. netflix or at&t and proct toran gamble, but morgan, tesla, they got hit really hard. some of the things we are hearing out of spending coming down. buy backs coming down and some of the guidance not as strong. we think we are going to have a mixed earnings season and

another quarter here another consecutive quarter but we look out to next year's sharing, 11%, 12% for earnings growth and we think with growth slowing with the lags working through the economy and the rate hikes we have seen with inflation not coming down to the level as quickly as they are anticipating, we think that is optimistic and start to hurt earnings going forward. >> how are we looking for this quarter since we are on a strong period and headed towards shopping and the holidays and santa claus rally? >> typically get that santa claus rally, when exactly is it going to hit. i wouldn't be surprised. the consumer has been strong and i don't think anyone can doubt that if only we were listening to the banks last week and the

end of the week before. they actually had some good things to say about the consumer because the labor market continues to be strong and wages continues to be strong. there is a lot of job openings out there. i think the consumer will continue to support the economy through this season. we know it's positive season atlanta and holiday season and revolving credit more higher on credit card purchases which is ok because historically that ratio of resolving credit to disposable income is in a good place. but as we look out the next couple of quarters we have to participate that earnings are going to get hit by corporations as pricing power starts to go away. >> we saw american express take a big hit given their

disappointed volumes on their credit cards. if we see more normalized level of spending on consumers, how badly could it hurt? >> it can hit some of these retailers these credit card companies more than others. american express goes to a higher income clientele and they were saying they were concerned as to what they were seeing. you can see it. we got a report out today about payments on car loans. we are just starting to see some of these. if the actions are pressure on the oil industry because of what's going on and iran steps in and broader issue than what we have right now, then i think you will see the consumer not a quality to flight and defensive

because of the geo political issue but the oil markets, the lower gasoline prices we have seen will probably dissipate. that hits the consumer first. >> life of quality has led to yields being pressured but after the 10-year yield topped that 5% level. we continue to see the equity risk premium being hit on the bloomberg shows. how alarming is this for the stock market broadly? 5% level was a psychological level for a lot of investors and saw it hit that level and tweets come out today and that flight to quality come in. let's look broader. this is the 11th consecutive week that we have seen selling at single short stocks going higher for the 11th consecutive week and net selling for single

stocks. again the highest level. a shift in the equity market to see rates move higher. a lot of rates moving higher because the economy is doing better and what does it mean for the fed and stay higher for longer than what the fed is telling us. it's not because of inflation expectations and see how sentiment changes and rates come down and 4.75 level which we could see in the near future. >> always great talking to you. and in terms of the flying tweets and calls on the broader bond space given the volatility, some of the sectors saying the historic treasuries has gone too far. and calls in hong kong. we heard from bill.

>> just the social media posts been flying. bill posted on x formerly twitter said we covered our bond short. very simple and very short as well, to the point and now unwound his bet against u.s. government debt even though it has been a profitable trade. the reason he has done that, let's dig into the details bill is saying that he is actioning that bearish position on government bonds because of the rising global risks and not just talking about geopolitical head winds. and talking about the health of the u.s. economy because he says it is slowing a lot faster than the data suggests. there was model that we saw from the fed that the u.s. economy is

growing at 5.4%. bill is saying we could see a recession on the horizon. >> how about bill gross, what's he got to say? >> he has been active on x as well and laying out his these is. a couple of different you views coming out. investors should buy into the curves with a lot of different combinations that he says these inverted curves will turn positive by the end of the year and buying up short dated interest rate futures and will pay off, if interest rates or short-term rates do start to fall. he thinks that narrative that the fed is going to keep rates elevated. and he said that is yesterday's mantra and what came out but

about that health of the u.s. economy and likewise, we can expect a recession shared by the end of the year. >> led more pressure. coming next, a look at what jamaica has been a standout despite geopolitical risks. exclusive interview with the prime minister. ♪ business license guidance? ahhhhhh -cross-border sales? -ahhhhhh -item classification? -ahhhhhh does it connect with acc...? ahhhhhh ahhhhhh ahhhhhh

>> argentina's election will be settled in a runoff. nearly all the ballots and 30%. bloomberg's economy and government correspondent. how did he pull this off as they deal with triple digit inflation ? what he did was essentially

called on machinery, the biggest political party here in argentina and deep roots and gave out lots of handouts to the tune of about 1.3% of g. d. p., social welfare checks and tax credits slashed taxes for all but the top 1%. these things do not come free especially at this moment where we are at negative international reserves and very much just fueling further inflation with these further moves. he called on all of the tools at his disposal and that's exactly what we might expect to see even more of as we head into november now that he has a real running

chance between being the next president. >> what happens to the leader of the august primaries and lots of hopes on that candidate. what went wrong for him? >> great question. he really captured the imagination of international crowds every year. he is the king of global phenomenon. and seen the constant. he initially got 30% of votes in that primary and then got 30% of votes this time. no one really knows what went wrong. realing last night at headquarters and no one had an explanation of what had gone wrong. essentially, the massive campaign, incumbent government

called on fear. [no audio] bloomberg's economy. andrew: we saw the assets slumping as investors ran for the exits and showing on

struggling emerging markets and optimism with the prospect of fresh leadership on locking opportunities in the asset class. and it wasn't just argentina but a couple of other elections in the past couple of weeks. what were the reactions? >> argentina posed a contrast to the elections that happened two weeks ago. one was in ecuador who is a tycoon hire. andrew: the bonds were outperforming all emerging market. and we had election in poland where a pro-european coalition were able to unseat the current nationalistic party and that was market friendly and putting stocks and bonds all rallied

afterwards. >> did you have other upcoming elections and how investors seeing those? >> we are coming up and in the middle of a heavy period of an electoral cycle and egypt's which isn't likely to have a regime change and don't see instability there and next year, there is india where the current prime minister is expected to continue a third term and means a continuation of market-friendly policies and reforms and push for foreign direct investment and coming ahead in mexico in june, the current candidates announced they are perceived as pragmatic and more center than the current administration. so this they are likely to

reduce the political risk there and take advantage. >> thank you. jamaica has been a rare bright spot as the e! m. universe has been hit by high borrowing costs and tackling unemployment and slashing debt by nearly half. in an interview i asked the prime minister about the potential impact of geepolitical tensions around the world. >> the impact is significant in cost of living and like other countries around the world and disi will utiononment but jamaica's performance is counterintuitive and what is happening in the rest of the world.

we immediately after the pandemic we managed to bring it back down. inflation went up as high as 11%. the last term we are at 5.8 within our target ban. and for me, the most impressive figure is that unemployment rate is now at 4.5%. relative to global unemployment and other economies, 4.5% may not sound as low as it should be but relative to what it was 4.5%, we are at the -- >> positive economic outlook led to your second credit upgrade in a month. and you are planning to continue shrinking the debt load, but does that square with you your other priority of also boosting

growth? >> the question is about creating fiscal space and we are being strategic and we have a tar figure. but growing the economy reduces your debt ratios. the most fiscal space we create, the more. the more growth we can generate. but the secrete to growth is not the access to financing or borrowing for growth. there is a significant element of developing human resources because the new industries and enterprises that will come into the economy will rely heavily on the upscaling of our labor force. so we are spending kite a bit of time and effort trying to upscale and ensure we have a labor force to meet the jobs of

the future. >> jamaica has been the largest recipient of japanese investments. >> china has been very good for jamaica and infrastructure development partner. we benefited from chinese investments and chinese goals, particularly during the period of time when there was recession 2008-2010 and use that to support the development of infrastructure, particularly our highways, and that has been an economic boone for us. in terms of our debt profile, chinese 4% of jamaica's overall debt. what we encourage is debt from china and we are seeing that in many areas, particularly in

infrastructure. there is always the fear of chinese influence in the region. countries -- >> do you think the wars we have ongoing are focused against the region. >> the unions has great band width. so it is a matter of where it sees its strategic interest. and strategic in its global perspective. i think not enough attention is being paid to the region. >> our exclusive conversation

with jamaica's prime minister. and see our stories. this is bloomberg. ♪ l style. endless hardie® siding colors. textures and styles. it's possible. with james hardie™.

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valued at $10 billion and the acquisition could be announced as early as next month. that is it for us. opening market here in 4:30. futures. another beautiful spring day there on the sydney harbor. this is bloomberg. ♪

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