it's an amazing thing when you show generosity of spirit to someone. and you want people to be saved and to have a better life, then you don't stop. the idea that we have saved five million people's lives, it's overwhelming. it's everything.

>> good morning and happy friday. this is bloomberg daybreak europe. i'm dani burger in london. u.s. secretary janet yellen said the economy ask behind the surge in bond yields. g.d.p. growing at its fastest pace in nearly two years. strong results from amazon and an upbeat forecast from intel boosts sentiment. the u.s. won't escape unaffected if if if u.s.-hamas war spreads. what a tough week it has been. amazon comes to save the day. the nasdaq 100 entered a correction yesterday and has fallen more than 10% from its peak but we're well on our way clawing out of that correction. nasdaq futures have picked up by .9%. sentiments better in asia and in the european futures section.

because big tech has really set the pace and tone for earnings. you needed a good surprise from amazon to get that shift in sentiment in order to buy the dip. this is not a big change in tech. it is just an adjustment to higher yields and poor earnings that may result as part of that. maybe the adjustment is finished. amazon trade up 5%. intel also reporting strong results for their p.c. business. something that was maybe a bit of a surprise. we'll talk to our bloomberg intelligence analyst about that shortly. when it comes to bonds, they had a solid rally yesterday despite g.d.p. coming in strong. you had a really solid seven-year auction. they are selling off a bit this morning. about one basis point higher but we're down to 4.8%. it wasn't that long a.o.l. ago we were at 5% this week.

we're going to get p.c.e. later today. a little bit of dollar selling ahead of that and the risk of a war premium is getting priced into the oil market jumping more than 1.5%. bloomberg intelligence new fair value model for oil given the concerns in the middle east, it is now $945 a barrel. on the g.d.p. data, u.s. economy grew in the third quarter. the fastest in almost two years. there is a surge in consumer spending including strong increases on expenditures on durable good like cars. it is the strong consumer that is trumping all fears. let's get into it with bloomberg strategist mark kranfield. it was selling off because of the economy. because of a strong economy. what does it mean that we got a strong u.s. g.d.p. and there is a bit to treasuries.

>> that is probably more of a fowfntion people being worried about what's going on this weekend in the middle east. as a matter of fact, as you were speaking there, there is a report that iran is going through some military drills to prepare its army just in case they need to ramp up things there. obviously it is pretty unstable there. who knows whether or not israel attack turnovers weekend or the u.s. has to retaliate against iran. it is very uncertain. it probably makes sense to trim possessions a bit. it probably has more to do with that rather than the g.d.p. data. dani: yeah. and too, just the headline you were referring to so everyone knows. this just coming out, iran holding army drills to increase battle readiness and deturns. oil prices are higher on the day by about 1.6% from w.t.i.

janet yellen said the yield serge was not about deficits. >> i think some would expect to differ. dani: ok. >> i think when fitch made their down grade in august, it reminded people of one of the concerns fitch had was that a fiscal situation is unsustain nbdl the united states. spending is just going in one direction. there doesn't seem to be any plan to reign it in. you have seen treasury yields go higher and higher. it is not the only reason but it is one of the factors behind it. traders definitely are concerned about fiscal spending in the united states. it is not the only reason. inflation is still a bit higher than we will like it to be. the economy is robust. unemployment data is good. other data comes in on the

higher side. you put all of that together, but to say it doesn't matter at all is a bit disingenuous. dani: especially when we are going to get a treasury announcing refunding announcement next week. the market seems to be jittery around that. we're going to get p.c. data alert today. what are you looking out for? >> it should be -- repeat the message that in general inflation has peaked in the united states. it is not come down quickly but it should show we don't have any immediate concerns about a big spike in innation. it could come in pretty close to forecast. still a bit too high but not disastrous. but it will feed into the fed's message that they have to keep short-term rates higher for a short time. if you're going to get volatility, it probably has more to do with dollar-yen as people

get ready for next week's bank of japan meeting. dani: oh, yeah. more intiement -- excitement to come. equities weren't performing. maybe that made it more attractive. does this change things? amazon surged in the post market. amazon was pretty opt mechanic about results to come from the cloud unit. let's get more with matt. if they are optimistic about cloud results to come the you see this make google's results look all the worse based on that? >> it puts it quite clearly into contrast. amazon is the market leader. they timed their investments in a.i. effectively.

i think bag to selling a smaller player. -- googleis a smaller player. alongside that, it is an enormous profit machine and bigger this quarter than people expected. sales more or less keeping up with expectations but way more profitable than people thought. dani: can't help but think how much to have big post market reactions is a function of amazon selling off so much this week. it was down 5.5% on wednesday alone. >> maybe if amazon had come out at the beginning of the week with cloud revenues, just about where the market was, maybe the reaction would be different. in the context of what google told us, context is everything. that changed the perspective.

dani: intel market. those results, investors seemed happy about also. >> some weakness in the cloud unit for them too. some pressure from invideoia. from invideoia. they had a q4 outlook, better and why consensus -- the low end was above consensus. clearly a raise coming. consensus in q4. dani: thank you very much for joining us every day this week. we appreciate your time. we get some relief thanks to intel and amazon. let's see if asia is feeling that relief. let's get over to singapore. what are you looking at? >> yeah, they are certainly getting that leaf in the asia pacific stock markets. tech earnings coming in post

market. trickling through to the asia session. recovering some, not all but some of the lost ground from yesterday. gains being led by nikkei and hang seng today. in the asia fx space we're speeg seeing a reversal pretty much from what we saw yesterday as the dollar is sliding a little. we got a profit riding for a second month adding that the stimulus coming through is helping the manufacturing recovery even though they are part to chinese economy that is still pretty fragile capping a week where we already saw china unveiling stimulus. that is helping the shanghai composite rising backing above the 3,000 level. zooming in on the japanese currency as well, that has been holding pretty steady against the green back even though it was above the 150 level.

this is on a day where we have tokyo inflation data accelerating for the first time in four month. inflation in the country might be stickier than the b.o.j. might like as it meets next week. we did see the yield on the 10-year approaching 0.9% level. that might be the next level for the b.o.j. to watch as it tries to keep a cap on these rising yields in the country. dani: ok. thank you very much. keeping us up to date on these asian markets. coming up, we'll keep you up to date on the oil markets. oil pushing higher this morning. u.s. military has attacked two facilities in syria that it says are linked to iran. iran is having army drills. coming up, third quarter results beat expectations. we'll be speaking to the c.e.o.

later in the program. this is bloomberg. ♪ of the.

dani: the u.s. says it hit two facilities in eastern syria it believes were used by islam's

revolutionary guard in what it calls self-defense strikes. earn's defense minister warned the u.s. will not be spared if it turns into a broader conflict. we heard about 14 minutes ago the iran army drills will increase battle readiness and deter ens that they are holding army drills. this is the concern of many normal people and investors in this market as well. what is the latest in terms over the risk of escalation? >> the big concern -- one of the big concerns has been how widely this war could expand in the region if it continues. we have seen as you mentioned in the last several hours, u.s. strikes on two facilities in syria. we have seen reports of iran's military taking on additional exercises. that all follows a warning from

iran's foreign minister at the u.n., that the u.s. would not be immune to this conflict if the lager head continues. the u.s. has been deploying a number of assets to the middle east since october 7. that includes two carrier battle groups, a number of defense systems and we heard about 900 additional forces being sent to region. not israel but the broader region to help serve as a deterrence effect to iran and anyone else including their approximaties that might want to engage further in this war between israel and hamas. dani: bill, thank you very much for that update. now with those strikes, with that warning from iran, the risk of escalation, we did see oil pick up yet again overnight. we're now about 1.5% higher. those lines in iran sent us to the next leg higher.

it is jittery market but below its peak october 7. let's bring in angela, head of natural resources and commodities at fitch ratings. thank you so much for joining us. crude has unwound some of the war premium from the past two weeks but bloomberg intelligence figures that the fair value of brent is about $95 a barrel on that geo flil political risk premium. what do you sympathy fair value in this crude market? >> good morning. thank you for having me. yes, absolutely, the conflict in the middle east added to the oil prices and brent spiked per barrel at the beginning of october before declining below this mark. it is close to $90 now.

following saudi arabia's extension of the reproduction. uncertainty remains the the market. this uncertainty will add to the volatility of the oil prices. this is against backdrop of tightly managed and balanced oil market. we believe that currently the oil market is in a deficit and it is likely to remain so until the end of the year because saudi arabia extended -- $1 million per barrel until the end of this year. it adds to the volatility of the oil prices. dani: we have oak opec plus to gather in about a month. do you think we'll have any hint at all of some relaxation of output curve it is or again, as you say, is this historic perhaps for 2024? >> it is probably historic for 2024. it remains to be seen whether

they will unwind the production costs. we might be in surplus. we need to remind there is a supply side and also a demand side. on the demand side this year, the consumption was relatively healthy. china accounted for about 70% of the global oil demand. we anticipate some of the demand growth next year because of the local economic growth. but if you go back to the supply, opec will continue managing supply in a very tight manner. as i mentioned, there is no impact on the supply so far and opec has a spare production capacity. about 4 million barrels per day. if there is a spillover in the conflict in the middle east, it might start impacting the

ability to deploy that capacity and utilize it. that might affect oil demand balance. dani: tell me what happens to prices in that scenario. >> in that scenario, obviously there will be a huge geo-political premium to the prices. if we see any physical risks to the supply, this adds to the uncertainty of the markets. if we see the escalation of this, the prices might go up well over 100. dani: how far above 100? bloomberg intelligence says 150. is that realistic? >> when there is a huge uncertainty in volatile any the market, obviously it is very difficult to assess what the potential spike in the price is. as a rating agency, we look through potential spikes.

it might be an overreaction in the market but eventually the prices will go down to the level where the supply and demand is and there is the spare production capacity in opec. it depends whether there is any corrections to physical flows. dani: you hinted about this earlier. to what degree do recession concerns, maybe less so in the u.s. these days but in europe, slow economic growth in china, to what degree do they play a cap on oil prices? >> they are in consideration. geo-political premiums are there but usually for a very limited period of time. the oil market and any other commodity market, fundamentals of the market. the concern to have global economic growth is there. it already put some limitation on the global demand growth.

this year, the key driver is china because over the reopening of the economy. it is over 70%. next year, we anticipate significant moderation in the consumption growth. that will affect the supply and demand balance. dani: angelina, thank you very much for your time this morning. some breaking lines just crossing now on air france. air france k.l.m. hosting a profit jump thanks to strong summer demand. they did miss on their third quarter, i should say, operating income advanced 31% from a year earlier. it comes in at a record 1.3 billion euros, slightly below analyst estimates. capacity reached 94%. compared with the prepandemic

level of 2019. but again, perhaps the silver lining is that there was clearly strong summer demand although volume figures fell short of estimates. third quarter revenue came in at 8.66. slightly missing on all of these metrics. coming up, morgan stanley's incoming c.e.o. tells us investment banking will be leading next season's business cycles. we'll bring you our interview with ted pick next on bloomberg. ♪

dani: morgan stanley's incoming c.e.o. says that investment banking will lead the next business cycle.

investment banking has been struggling with higher rates. ted pick coming in and spoke with current morgan stanley c.e.o. james gorman. >> the next cycle will be investment banking led. inequities need to be one or two. it is now a top five business. investment banking is going to lead the next cycle. there is going to be a lot of m&a. the world has gotten smaller. there is a new cost to capital. we want to be a leader, a global leader in all of those spaces. dani: that is the morgan stanley incoming c.e.o. ted pick speaking with bloomberg. there is likely to be a focus on asset management for morgan stanley. let's bring you some of the top stories of the morning and china's former premiere leader has died less than a year after stepping down from overseeing the world's second largest

economy. he was the ruling communist party's second most powerful man before retiring in march. he suffered a sudden heart attack in shanghai. he was 68. elsewhere in the reeling, china's foreign minister is reported to meet president biden today when he visits the white house. it is a move that could lay the ground work for a meeting between biden and xi next month in new york. tice between the two largest economies has improved since the u.s. shot down an alleged chinese spy balloon earlier in the year. let's get you a quick read on those oil prices. for the week, we saw a comedown in diplomatic efforts with the hope there would be a deescalation of risks in the middle east in israel's war with hamas. down about 3% on the week but the end of the chart you can see what's happening. it is a tick up higher in oil

prices. there is concern this risk ofesque lakeslation. iran warned the u.s. won't be able to avoid getting involved should there be an escalation. iran said they conducted army drills in order for deterrence sake. we were just talking to our last guest from fitch on it. it is a skittish market. worth giving you a quick read on amazon and intel. amazon coming to save the day when it comes to weak tech earnings, getting some 5% but of course it fell 5% in the week. coming up, we'll talk hi, i'm jason and i've lost 202 pounds on golo. so the first time i ever seen a golo advertisement, i said, "yeah, whatever. there's no way this works like this." and threw it to the side. a couple weeks later, i seen it again after getting not so pleasant news from my physician. i was 424 pounds, and my doctor was recommending weight loss surgery.

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>> welcome back to bloomberg daybreak europe. i'm dani berger. janet yellen says a strong economy is behind the bond yields growing at the fastest pace. strong results from amazon and an upbeat forecast boosts sentiment. the u.s. strikes two facilities in serr yeah. the u.s. won't be spared if hamas-israel war turns into a broader conflict. sanofi, here's what investors will be planning. they will be separate the consumer healthcare business in the fourth quarter of 2024 at their earliest. the most likely path for that is listing. is it a volatile market. we'll see if that can go to

plan. but just to to get to the numbers themselves. third quarter coming in at 1.6. their sells coming in lower than expected. $11. # billion euros. will round up $12.1 billion euros. the estimate had been for $2.6. so again a little bit weaker there same with their operating income too. the sales of their blockbuster skin and asthma drug, those did do better than expected. the key takea way is they're going to separate their consumer healthcare business in about a year's time. it's not too early for a little bit of remi. they have slashed their guidance as u.s. sales rebound vanishes. this is the same issue we saw at vlmh.

their cog knack, organic revenue, it fell nearly 18%. they now see their four-year organic revenue coming in from a drop of 15% to a drop of 20%. the estimate had been for 6%. again,s that much, much worse outlook than had been expected. the revenue coming in slightly washington. the organic revenue coming in slightly washington. the takeaway is that folks willing to pay off for nice cog knack and nice french spritz. it's this buy fur ration of the american products. folks who are being cog knack not willing to spend as much. let's take you through the data. nasdaq future's are rebounding. it's been a tough week for

earnings. amazon in their cloud business aws did slightly miss for the quarter. yes, the amazon c.e.o. said they're ahead of the curve in a.i. and that's why folks still using amazon, perhaps that's why they're not using google. amazon up pretty significantly some 5%. it did drop 1% yesterday and 5% the day before. they had some earnings, some strong personal computer results too. bonds, yields are tick up ever so slightly. that came in about 10 basis points. yes, we had a strong g.d.p. yellen talking about why this curve is moving. not moving on deficits. weaker dollar and stronger brent crude off the back of escalation risk in the middle east. we're getting some numbers on donska bank. coming in at $19.5 billion

danish crona. 19.5 billion to 20.5 danish crona. the estimate was square in the middle. so this range is pretty much in line with what was expected. cons cha bank not too many big surprises. they still see their total cost in line with what they saw before. they see their full year impairments coming up to $1 billion. full year impairments doing better than expected. we had g.d.p. coming in 4.9%. it's the fastest pace in almost two years. ok so maybe consumers aren't buying

congnac. let's talk more with bruce aihorn. you look at things like the g.d.p. figure saying the consumer is doing well. but you look at what corporates are saying and savings rates, it's not saying the same thing. what does this set of figures mean for the fed that point? bruce: as you mentioned earlier, janet yellen was trying to push back against this emerging narrative that we're seeing from jerome powell and participants in the bond market about bond yields being at their highest rate since the global financial crisis and that being caused by an increased focus on the budget deficits in the u.s. jerome powell had pointed to that as one of the reasons for this thing that increased focus on deficits was a candidate behind the moves in the market.

janet yellen had bloomberg event pushed back a bit saying that while we're seeing increases elsewhere as well as she saids that reflection of just the strength of the resilience of the u.s. economy coming of course, after the -- the -- after the numbers showing that the economy grew 4.9% in the quarter. secretary yellen said that the u.s. is on a path of a soft landing. she said she wouldn't be suprise if g.d.p. growth came at 2.5%. dani: even steven blige is a bull definitely does. bruce, thanks very much. that's bruce einhorn. from the fed to yellen, to e.c.b. they hold rates.

but christine lagarde said that inflation is still expected to remain high. >> we are determined to insure that inflation returns to our 2% medium term target in a timely manner. based on our current assessment, we consider that the key e.c.b. interest rates are at levels that maintain for a significant long duration will make a substantial contribution to this goal. dani: let's get to maria who is in athens for that decision. the market thinks that the e.c.b. is done hiking system that the message we got from yesterday? maria: they're done for the time being. that's certainly the case. it is very significant. if you look at the trajectory over the past year, this was a central bank as you know very well almost on auto pilot that went from one hike to another. the head of the e.c.b. said

sometimes inaction is action so make of that what you will. she pointed to the fact that monetarily policy is working so therefore that would feed through the economy without the need for further hikes. you talked about this idea of transmission that would intensify going into next year. you could argue there is a strong case to see, yes, they are done. and the market believes that once you hold, you hold. having said that, the head of the e.c.b. was asked that question flat-out. the fact that we didn't hike today doesn't mean we're not going hike in the future. was not willing to put a number on that. but danny that makes sense in terms of the narrative, which is again, there is a fight against inflation. we still have to be strong on it. there's an indication that this is a conversation at the central bank that is switching to how many more hikes into now fully hired for longer.

dani: and maria, one of the debates as you say is what significantly long looks like when it comes to holding rates. the market things are going to start cutting next year did lagarde give hint to what that phrase "sufficiently long" actually means? >> yes, she did. this is the one issue. you see how this is very connected. the one area where she was very clear appear would not allow for any debate is this idea that cuts were debated. that they're even considering -- it would be totally unfire have this conversation but the market is already having that conversation. they believe that in the face of a weaker economicked a love is still the case. evening tilted to the dupe side. this is an area where the european central bank will want to keep the suspense but restrictive for how long and what does it mean? because they do not want to precipitate going from hiking to

cutting they believe there is a series of events that need to happen before you move into the conversation. they do not want to get into this for the time being certainly shutting down that debate yesterday. >> can i just say -- i'm sad you're in the office today. i miss that beautiful athens backdrop you had yesterday. maria: look, so do i, belief me it breaks my heart. [laughter] dani: soon you'll back in brussels and visit me in sad, foggy london. maria tadeo. coming up, equanor's profit beat expectations. we have our interview with anders opedal. that's next on bloomburg. -- bloomberg.

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dani: norwegian giant equanor beat expectation by both oil production and a strong performance from the company's trading unit. i'm joined with anders opedal. thank you very much for joining us. i know in the commercial break, i asked you if they're getting a nice bonus which you kindly reminded me that they are. let me ask you about trading in general. it's been a very volatile drive. we can talk about some of the drivers for this oil market. how much was that driven by oil volatility? do you see that continue into the current quarter we're on? >> good morning, good to be here. yes, we have a solid result this quarter driven by high oil production but also good trading. we see that with all the

different areas with after the sanctions of the russian oil and most of the russian oils goes to a.c.i. and china, we have been able to find new ways to market our own. we have physical oil that we're producing ourselves. we are a very good shipping. and we are able tony: crease our trading for this quarter. of course, this is a very volatile world in terms of the old market at the moment. and that creates all this -- inefficiencies in the market that we are able to capitalize on. >> so does it look like it's going to shape up to be a strong one for the trading unit? >> well, yes. it was a good quarter and hopefully, you folks in we'll see next quarter but we see the high volatility of the market going forward.

but it's too early for the next quarter. >> dani: we also had production down due to some long ethan expected work. this is something they had expected for the quarter. but what is that look through mean for this wenter? will there be more outages? or is this pass maintenance the last of that pain? >> this is dude to past events that we have dumped on our maintenance in the value chain over the summer. we have had some events -- some cases that turn around, take longer at times, and that's the reason why we have a lower production. now, they're producing and there's no kind of -- outlook for the gas production. we will continue to produce as much gas as we can. and provide anyone with the

energy security. so the fourth -- looking forward. we see high gas production company coming from equanor. >> is there still a strain in the system? is the system understressed? >> well, the whole gas system in europe is under trees. if you go back to some years ago, europe had the capability to i crease the production and at the moment they're not able to do so. so they happily need energy and and this will create volatility going forward. we have you stay the summer well to make sure that we have good maintenance on all our production facilities and are ability to provide gas going forward until you're up. >> it has been a mild winter so far. we're very far away from the world of price spikes on last

year. on one hand. but on the other hand, how much of that vol number are you there? how fearful are you? >> it depends on the weather. we see that colder weather the heating demand will go up. we also see that there's more intermittent power into the system now. so i stop -- much more than before. and so we expect that there will be volatility. if you have a supply chain. and we saw the week where we both had the colder temperature in europe. we had the boston connector incidents. and we also had the unfortunate middle east pry sys. the gas price increased by 40%.

dani: bloomberg intelligence thinks that oil prices could go to $150. what's your expectation for both oil and natural gas if there is an escalation? >> well, we can see both for the oil and for the gas, surplus capacity. that's any incident can actually affect the prices quite heavily. we also know that they do have some capacity to increase if they would go too high. based on this, we think we will have volatile market over this winter what we're doing is really making sure that we have a resilient company focusing on maintenance making sure that our production city can produce such that we can be a prusted provider and energy. dani: well, you know, i'm not

letting you go before trying to get some price levels out of you, anders. in the depth of the energy crisis. dutch now have 340 euros? could it get to that sort of level, do you think? >> it will be highly speck la tiff. we see that the forward curve is higher on the gas and you know, we will take -- we think that the oil price will move in a way of the levels that we have seen. very, very difficult to predict the price level. but with small incidents creates big spikes. dani: i guess what keeps you busy is the adjustment for it. and you mentioned remaining reliable after the gas leakage where the investigation operated on the promise of sabotage.

what steps have you taken since then to increase security? >> yeah, so we have increased the physical platforms but also on the critical infrastructure. the pipeline is going from norway to europe. we're working very closely with the norwegian territory. but they can assure that the pipelines are surveillance. we know the status. we did that last year and then we are monitoring the situation very closely. there is no friend toward the pipe lines in a way. but we are monitoring the situation closely and work closely with nato and you and the territory. dani: i know you trade verse a lot to celebrate. es quanor's c.e.o., anders opedal. they are raising their full year

adjusted die dance. they're raising their full-year operating profit. they've seen $12 billion euros. now and they've raised their full year production. and adjusted results coming in from expect. at up with point:1.8 billion you rose. stronger results from nip across the board and a lift to the guidance for the full year. one of the world's favorite pop stars has another accolade. taylor swift is now part of that exclusive club of entertainers who are worth five figures. we'll discuss it. this is bloomberg. you're a rock star. you are a rock star.

no more calling co-workers rock stars. look, it's great that you use workday to transform your business. but it still doesn't make you a rock star. so unless you work with an actual rock star. hi, i'm ozwald. hello ozwald. pam, you are a rock- i wasn't going to say it. ♪♪

♪ dani: welcome back to your friday edition of "bloomberg daybreak europe." taylor swift is now a billionaire. she has propeled the pop star into limited ranks of recording artist who have built a 10-figure fortune in music. the one who are billionaires tend to have other businesses too. bloomberg with how her financial success was created. >> it's official, taylor swift is a billionaire. her hair esker to tour is a party generating hundreds of millions of dollars it's a multinational conglomerate. swift has made her fortune almost scyphily from music. she has made $25 million from record sales. >> we estimate that her total

income from streaming is $175 million. the biggest part of her earnings is undoubtedly her concert revenue. >> that's 35% of ticket sales is profit t about $500 million from tour other the years. >> her tours and record sales are all earnings. but she has assets including her recording catalog. >> we estimate that her catalog is about $400 million. then there's her actual property. that includes a condo an estate in nashville, in los angeles, a large apartment in tribeca as well as a assumer house in rhode island. the total value of her properties is about $110 million. >> subtract her expenses and you get a net worth of $1.1 billion.

dani: you can watch that originals documentary online and on youtube. for subscribers on the terminal at bloomberg.com taylor swift and beyonce are the backbone of the american economy. whole foods, we will be speaking to the c.e.o. jan jenisch. don't miss our interview with pat begins >> he. that's after 5:00 p.m. in london but first, up next, it's markets today on bloomberg.

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♪ >> this is bloomberg