when you show generosity of spirit to someone. and you want people to be saved and to have a better life, then you don't stop. the idea that we have saved five million people's lives, it's overwhelming. it's everything.

>> you are watching "bloomberg daybreak asia" coming to you live from new york, sydney and hong kong. >> counting down to asia's major market opens. haidi: australia has just come online. israel expands ground operation in gaza, sending in troops and tanks for what it calls the second and longer phase for the war against hamas. the escalating conflict on global markets already with a high-stakes announcement of u.s. bond sales. china's foreign minister warns of a bumpy road when expected at a summit. the sides inc. -- agree in principle for a meeting in november. annabelle: we have the start of another trading week here in asia and the asx 200 in australia coming online. the big focus for investors as we get trading underway is the escalation of the israel hamas war over the weekend with the israeli prime minister warning

this will become a very long and protracted conflict. off that, we had seen futures pointing to a weaker open in australia. we will wait until we see line pricing coming through. the reaction so far has been more movement into safe havens like gold. the aussie dollar meanwhile is a little higher. it could be the commodity theme. we are not seeing too much of a movement in bond yields so far. stocks also falling flat. let's change the mode, not just geopolitical tensions, but central-bank meetings. a slew of decisions do. the fed, the boj, and the bank of england are just some of those in focus for the start of november. all of those expected to keep key rates steady. certainly it does risk being another event that could inject further volatility. traders are very anxious at this

point. vonnie: so much to contend with this week. you mentioned central bank meetings. we will look at u.s. futures. looking to a positive open in the u.s. which may come as a relief to some traders. it has been a pretty brutal couple of weeks for stocks. the s&p dropped into correction territory, the lowest level since may last week. i did rise friday but is down now more than 10%. on the year alone, up just 7%. positive, but not as positive as it had been in may. we are seeing a little money coming out of bonds. we will see if that reverses. interestingly just futures wise, the picture looks a little risk on which is interesting. wti crude down. brent crude down 1.24%. it should be mentioned gold is trading down $2000.

we will watch the dollar this week as we will be watching the swiss franc, another safe haven. and may be bitcoin to some extent as well. it's about $100 right now. central bank meetings might take away some of the concentration of traders from mideast conflicts but you know it will be there in the background, israel sending troops and tanks into the northern gaza strip and what is it -- it is calling the second phase against hamas. the prime minister warned this stage will be "long and difficult." let's get more from bloomberg's bruce einhorn. how much of this stage of the war is planned within 10 by israel?if it knowns -- knows it will be longer than the previous stage, does it have an idea what this will look like step-by-step, and what the next stage will be? reporter: according to several is really officials, the next stage of the work could last

anywhere from six weeks to six months. it does indicate that israel is moving beyond any attempt to focus on the fate of the hostages. there are about 230 civilians who were captured by hamas and being held in gaza. there's a lot of pressure domestically in israel to get hostages back. however it seems israel is focusing on the next stage of the war which could last for as much as half a year. the u.s. is focusing on just what israel's aims are. israeli officials have said the gold this -- goal this time unlike previous incursions is not just to contain hamas but actually eliminate it as a threat, they can return to areas that had been attacked. the united states has expressed

concern about what the plan is at the end of the incursion and the end of the invasion, if it last longer. what's the plan after that? haidi: you touch upon a couple of these points and questions that people are asking given the brutality of what people are seeing. what does it mean for their humanitarian crisis already unfolding and the pressure that could come from international allies and watchers in terms of how much can be stomach in this aspect? reporter: united nations has said the crisis is getting worse, that storehouses are getting ransacked as it falls apart in gaza. more than one million people in gaza have been displaced.

so how that can continue as the invasion goes on, that is a big unanswered question. haidi: bruce einhorn there with the latest. let's get to hong kong for how this is being expressed through markets and gold is one aspect we are seeing have a big reaction. annabelle: that's right. when you take a look at the price of bully on over the past weeks, since the start of the conflict, up about 10%. it has been a key asset class. we have aussie stocks coming online and there are quite a few gold producers and you can see this is where we are seeing the big gains coming through out of all of the indexes trading online so far.

most in the red, gold and other material linked names moving to the upside. a key sector we will watch in the hours i had given it is that focus on safe haven assets at the start of the treating greek here -- week here. haidi: as mentioned, this is adding more pressure on global markets and investors are preparing for a busy week. jampacked, central-bank decisions, big earnings as well. let's get to our bloomberg global editor. we have the geopolitical overlay and that as well but it's bumpy when it comes to monetary policy setting. >> it is. one of the concerns investors face is there's plenty of potential for extra volatility, and indeed one of the themes amid the geopolitical tensions has been the way government

bonds, especially treasuries, are not acting as particularly good havens amidst all of this. treasury has moved up a little bit on friday and along with gold, they moved down, but did not move up as much as gold did on friday. when push comes to shove, treasuries are still an asset investors can get into and out of rapidly without being hurt by the size of their own moves. that is one of the initial things you want from haven, but it's not a haven they feel comfortable with. they are more likely to go into gold and stay gold or look for particular equities that might do well and offer stability in a way that treasuries just aren't. the same thing goes, we have the boj meeting, it has a hot tokyo cpi print to add to the burden. if it doesn't do anything, that

could almost do as much damage as if it does do something. everyone is certain they need to move sooner rather than later. they already have an almost 55% of the japanese government bond market. how much more could they hold especially at a time when inflation is picking up? then you have the fed and boe and also have lurking behind it all, the u.s. treasury will announce its refunding announcement. the last time they announced in august, they boosted issuance more than was expected. that really laid the groundwork for the september selloff that decimated bonds and set up a situation where they are not seen as so much of a haven. that is a problem for investors on fixed income. -- in fixed income. it's also a problem for equities on the s&p 500 and nasdaq.

the borrowing level 10 year yield has popped up, once it was above 5% and now it's 4.85 and that is creating difficulties for stocks, especially if stocks continue to have underwhelming earnings. if you are going to have discount rate going up, you need profit growth. otherwise, logically you will ride down the value for stocks. vonnie: it does feel like across wall street, they are looking to supply this as much as the fomc. does that mean that the dollar and u.s. treasuries are now trading very separately and on very different geopolitical dynamics? >> the dollar is still seen as a haven but partly because it is kind of a win-win. if treasuries are selling off, up go u.s. yields especially relative to elsewhere so that

boosts the attractiveness of the u.s. dollar and emphasizes that a lot of investors who are saying they like 5% as a yield on fixed income, that's a good entry point from that point of view. they overwhelmingly concentrating on the short end two years or under. that's because the fed is seeing done are almost done when it comes to raising rates. but the outlook for whether the fed is ever going to cut rates relatively soon and where other issues will keep long end rates elevated or send them higher means stick with the short end. worst case scenario if yields go up more, you don't get capital losses and you do get kerry. whereas further out the curve, we saw that in september after the last refunding announcement, people who had gone into 10 year and 30 year u.s. bonds got

hammered. that is a risk very much on people's minds. vonnie: treacherous week ahead it seems. thank you. our chief rates correspondent for asia, garfield reynolds. coming up, our exclusive interview with suntory spirits limited ceo, noble torrey era duy discusses outlook for the company as they celebrate 100 years of whiskey making. but first, we preview the upcoming policy decisions with moody's analytics. katrina ell will join us next. this is bloomberg. ♪

vonnie: you are watching "bloomberg daybreak asia." let's take a look at the week ahead. a big week for central-bank decisions. the federal reserve to have to wait its fight against inflation with increasing concerns about the strength of the u.s. economy. bloomberg economics expects the central bank to hold rates steady for a second straight meeting while maintaining a tightening bias. this comes before pivotal u.s. jobs data friday. before that, investors might pay closer attention to the departments new borrowing plan hours ahead of the fed's decision. the funding announcement will reveal the extent to which the treasury ramp up sales of longer-term debt to fund a

widening budget deficit. on thursday, we will get a rate decision from the bank of england. the bank is expected to keep rates unchanged for a second meeting while keeping the door open to further hikes. meanwhile the boj will be on watch on tuesday to see if it changes the yield curve control stance as well as adoption of negative rates. rate decisions as well from pakistan, brazil and my -- malaysia do this week. haidi: let's get views from katrina ell, a senior economist at moody's analytics. it is a bumper week for investors for market watchers. i guess what is top of mind for you, particularly when we look at multiple significant central-bank decisions? >> that's a good question. i think if we break down one decision each, the fed were not expecting further rate adjustments from them at this stage. the good news is that inflation

and the jobs market is cooling as it is expected to so it does take the pressure off. when it comes to bank of japan, we might see some yc see tweaks. that would not be out of the realm of possibility but that is what we need to closely watch. but we are seeing is the yen is coming under so much pressure from the ultra-accommodative monetary policy stance. basically at loggerheads with the rest of the world. what we are seeing is that yen depreciation is causing significant issues and we are seeing imported inflation rise. we are also seeing household and business purchasing is coming under pressure as a result of sustained weakness in the yen, so pressure has built on the bank of japan to dial back stimulus further. haidi: when do you think we can see significant change from the boj? we have seen in the most recent

inflation numbers that sustained weakness in the yen is starting to take effect. >> what we are expecting is that we will see probably from this week's meeting that they will really set the scene for a more holistic withdrawal of the stimulus program so we are expecting we will see for instance projections for core cpi for this financial year and next to be upwardly revised and set the scene to say we are seeing inflation is above that magical 2%. next year we are going to dial back negative rates for instance. it will not be until the first half of next year where we see more of that aggressive dialing back. as we are seeing through the data, the domestic demand is not really gathering steam so it is under pressure. it is a rock in a hard place situation where we want to keep those settings in place somewhat

to support the domestic economic recovery. we don't want to dial them back, but then we need to play close -- pay close attention to at the yen is doing. vonnie: will investors and traders and so on be disappointed if the boj doesn't at least do something with the 1% ceiling so they can trade in wider bonds? if it doesn't happen, could there be ramifications in the market? >> there could be, but there are lots of things they can do outside of a more holistic policy adjustment. we can make changes to forward guidance for instance. as long as we can see and investors can see a clearer path out of this ultra-accommodative stance, it will allay some of the negative pullback if they don't make a more aggressive adjustment. there's lots of tweaking that can be done rather than a aggressive -- an aggressive pullback here.

vonnie:vonnie: we've been keeping and i on the dollar and treasuries and just had a conversation with garfield reynolds saying how they are trading differently and the dollar is providing safe haven status. treasuries are terrified of this issuance we might see this week. how are you seeing terminal rates on what the fed might do this week that might change the dynamic if anything? >> what we are seeing is currencies are really in focus and it's not just the greenback for instance. if we look to malaysia's central bank meeting later this week, what we've seen is central banks in southeast asia have in the past couple weeks made adjustments to policy rates either partially or fully as a result of affects weakness. we are seeing the fx is playing an important role in

policymaking, even outside the u.s. what we are expecting from malaysia is keeping policy rate at 3%, but don't be surprised if we see a movement to defend the ringgit from its multi-decade lows. vonnie: we will keep be -- we will be keeping an eye on malaysia. katrina ell, senior economist at moody's analytics. turning to energy, oil and gas are set for another volatile week of trading as israel ramps up its long anticipated ground and -- invasion of gaza. su keenan joins us. we have seen a big escalation of risk but we are seeing oil prices drop in the asia session. reporter: it's counterintuitive but oil traders have been focused on the risks coming out of the conflict for a couple weeks now and israel has said it is promising a long war against hamas. it's also apparently in terms of ground efforts taking a cautious

day by day approach. so you see a very big difference between friday, west texas intermediate and new york trading spiking 3% as israeli troops went into thousand, and then the pullback today. same with brent crude. it has fallen below $89 a barrel after rising by the most in two weeks on friday. and so what some analysts are calling a fading of the war premium, nonetheless there's been huge volatility since the beginning of the conflict in the israeli hamas war. the biggest risks everyone has said is the conflict will sprint be -- spread beyond the immediate area. the u.s. sees elevated risk of regional spill and says it will keep responding to any attack on troops by let's say a rainy and proxies.

around meanwhile says the war may "force everyone to take action." so the rhetoric is of concern but traders are move -- looking past that. and the bloomberg you can see there's been a pullback in bullish bets hedge funds are taking and some are projecting oil could make a major directional pull at this point as traders are reassessed. the biggest concern is any disruption. the mideast supplies about one third of the world's oil so any disruption in the strait of hormuz is being. closely watched. haidi: we've seen egypt and natural gas shipments in israel grounding to a halt. reporter: that has a lot to do with israel, as soon as they felt the attack from hamas, asking chevron to shut down the gas fields, and that as a result according to the cabinet of egypt over the weekend, that has

ground there shipments of natural gas down to zero. that has a domino effect. european traders are closely watching because egypt tends to receive natural gas from israel and then turn it into liquefied natural gas and ships that throughout europe. a lot of focus on the european trade. we should point out egypt already had been under a power de-escalation, really limiting supplies of power going into this interruption of shipment. of course everyone on all sides of the globe watching the conflict to see how it will disrupt energy, whether it be oil or natural gas, and the key is whether the conflicts spreading and we see a

disruption of this -- supply. we are seeing that with natural gas but not with oil. haidi: su keenan. you can get a roundup of the stories you need to know and get your day going in today's in addition of "bloomberg daybreak asia." . vonnie: go to dayb . it's also available on mobile in the bloomberg anywhere app and you can subscribe and customize your settings so you only get news on the industries and assets you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪ one wheel crafting) ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪

vonnie: taking a look at how currencies are trading at the beginnin you want to be able to provide your child with the tools or resources they need. with reliable internet at home, through the internet essentials program, the world opened up. fellas, fellas. that's how my son was able to find the hidden genius project. we wanted to give y'all the necessary skills to compete with the future.

kevin's now part of this next generation of young people who feel they can thrive. ♪ ♪

vonnie: the monetary authority

of singapore director says he sees a path out of high inflation without recession. he says economies have been resilient without rapid monetary policy tightening. >> i think generally you have to accept that inflation has come down without excessive cost on the real economy and employment. many of us including myself felt that is central banks tightened monetary policy, and this is the most rapid pace of tightening in decades, that economies would necessarily have to tip into recession. i would not rule out the risk. i think the risk remains on horizon but it least now we can imagine a pathway to lower inflation without necessarily having the recession, which i think a year ago we were less sure about. >> you surprised the market this month when you announced a tweak

in the frequency of your meetings. is that in respect -- response? what is the thinking, why now? >> as you know, in the last few years we've had to make a few off cycle moves. if you do and off cycle move in response to quickly changing developments, i think that's ok. markets understand. sometimes you have to move out of cycle. if it becomes too frequent, than i think it sets off apprehension. this does not mean we are moving to a shorter-term orientation in monetary policy. it's always been medium-term. that's the reason we hesitated in the past. >> there's been so much volatility in the markets and we are seeing massive movement especially in the bond space. how are you looking at where they are and how it's gone in a

short time? >> again they should not forget the good news which they did not blow up into something bigger. the problems are contained because the banking system is quite resilient against the kinds of interest rates increases we've seen. some corporate's are not and some households are not, but by and large we managed the transition to higher yields. >> how about the risk from the boj? banks say as it makes an exit from the zero rate policy that might cause a lot of volatility? >> we should be thankful that the monetary policy tightening and removal of quantitative easing has not been to synchronized. if it happened at the same pace and scale in the u.s., eu and in japan, i think the impact on the world would be much bigger. thankfully they are different

points in the cycle and response has been different. the u.s. taking the hardest position in terms of removal of qe followed by the ecb and now japan is doing the same. the sequencing, each central bank responding to its domestic situation, has not been to matt -- too bad. >> we are seeing fluctuations. it's been stable against the usda now. are you comfortable with the movements? >> we've never been bothered by bilateral exchange rate movements. partly reflecting u.s. monetary policy and the strength of the u.s. economy. i think that in itself is not a concern when you look at the trade-weighted exchange rate, the singapore dollar continues to appreciate some monetary policy remains appropriately tight and has managed to bring down inflation from 5.5% or core inflation, down to three.

heading toward 3% by the end of the year. the mission is not accomplished yet but it is on track. haidi: the monetary authority of singapore speaking with haslinda amin. take a look at how we are trading, half an hour or so into the start of trading in sydney. quite a bit of downside. watching energy stocks, we are seeing oil dropping even as israel committed forces to gaza and tel aviv taking a more cautious approach. at least any threat of spillover will have massive implications. kiwi stocks also on the back foot. nikkei futures are trading in singapore down by 1.1%. just how much the weakness has been sustained, it will potentially put on more pressure for the boj to move toward policy normalization. s&p futures up by one quarter of 1%.

it is fed week as well as a number of key other investments -- events investors are watching. one will be the latest of elements when it comes to the chinese property developer evergrande facing a make or break moment monday when they most -- must present concrete plans. this is a developer dealing with creditor requests for liquidation right now. annabelle: something that really seemed unthinkable even a couple years ago for what is one of the most important or significant developers in mainland china. let's lay out the key details. the first is it is a winding up petition in a court in hong kong. it originates from a lawsuit filed by a creditor called top shine, a strategic investor in evergrande's online sales platform. that was the first windup lawsuit. there have been a couple since that point but it has led to

becoming the consolidated class action for other frustrated creditors. today, evergrande was told it needs to demonstrate to the judge it is making real, tangible progress in restructuring. that was quite difficult to do given its being tested the -- it's been testing the patience of creditors. there's a lot involved in the discussions. one is the class c cohort we spoke about at length in the past. it is one of the more difficult ones to bring on site. in the past, the ad hoc group has been supportive in the hopes restructuring has given them a better chance of money being returned to them. the ad hoc group is. now the support is starting to waiver their this is becoming a key concern for evergrande. we understand the ad hoc group is yet to decide whether they will oppose or support the winding up petition in the court this monday so it will be a key

test for the company. the winding up hearing is being held in hong kong today. vonnie: so what actually happens if the hong kong court does decide to issue a windup notice? annabelle: the first thing to happen would be that evergrande could still appeal the decision, but it would not stop the liquidation process from moving forward. it would be a long and drawn out process as well. after the order, the court would appoint a liquidator who would then seize control from directors, from management and the liquidator would be making major business decisions, seeking gains for creditors from existing assets. it is not an easy process because most of evergrande's process are operated by local units which would make it different -- difficult for an offshore liquidator. the process of taking over companies could last for years. leave in routine cases.

there's a question of how supportive the government of mainland china would be because they can play an outsized role in the liquidation of any onshore developers and could decide to shrug off the order instead. haidi: what are some of the evergrande assets most in focus? annabelle: it's the question that hangs over most of the markets in mainland china. there's also more retail focused developments as well. that is worth noting because it is the onshore units where the vast majority of evergrande assets are held that would perhaps be more difficult to seize. it does come down to the support or perhaps lack of support that could come through from beijing. the lawyers spoken to ahead of the hearing say evergrande is likely to face a very tough time

in the courtroom later this morning. a lot a focus on this and the fate of what was one of china's biggest developers. a lot of land cells -- sales and projects in the works, significant for the mainland economy. we see the woes in the china property sector in the fourth year. vonnie: thank you. let's get the latest in geopolitics of chinese foreign minister warns both the u.s. and china cannot rely on what he calls autopilot to achieve a potential meeting between president biden and xi jinping. he says the two sides must work to improve ties. he met with biden and other u.s. officials in a two day visit to washington and said both sides will together to achieve the meeting in the apec summit . trade ministers from the group of seven have criticized some

countries for exploiting commercial vulnerabilities of others to pursue policy objectives. they pledged to build a wider network to ensure resilient supply chains although no culprits were main -- named. it is likely china is the target. recently beijing has used tariffs and import bands to express displeasure. argentina's economy minister and presidential candidate sergio masa has threatened to cut fuel exports as they grapple with supply shortages. he's warned there will not be able to send out expert trips from wednesday if supply issues are not addressed. argentina's oil and gas producers say they expect the situation to normalize over the coming days. haidi: australia has walked away from negotiations with the european union on a free trade dual for the second time in three months. paul allen joins us with more. it's been five years in the making and it does not seem to be getting closer.

reporter: the stumbling blocks are the same as they were three months ago. apart from agriculture and australia's point of view, access for beef, mutton and sugar. the eu as a sticking point over what's known as geographical origin which means australian wine and cheese producers cannot use words like percent or parmesan or feta. it's loans -- sounds small but it is a big deal. the eu over the weekend said what a spirit -- australia has brought does not reflect the progress made since july. there were some good signs into the weekend. the eu agriculture commissioner was present and making optimistic overtures, but in the end, another walk out saying he will not sign anything not in australia's national interests. vonnie:vonnie: it's taken a while but is there some political will to get the deal done eventually?

reporter: the will is there and it seems close, it is just sticking points that remain. besides economic benefits, there are political benefits. of course the australian government has come off the back of a bruising loss to the referendum on the indigenous voice to parliament and faced criticism that it should be focusing on economic issues. bringing home the trade deal would have been a great win on that front. for the eu, it has struggled to get tariffs removed on u.s. tariffs on steel and others and struggle to get a deal across the line for south america as well. it feels like a long way off. the trade minister for australia says we will keep negotiating and hopefully we will get the deal done. in terms of one the one deal -- day is, the agriculture minister says it could be until after the next election in australia which is not until 2025. vonnie: that's paul allen in

sydney. up next is our exclusive interview with the suntory spirits ceo, nobu torii. this is bloomberg. ♪

did you know you can get someone to shop for you? with stitch fix, it couldn't be easier. i share my style, size and budget. and they shop just for me. my shopper sends me stuff i feel good in. i keep what works, and send back the rest. stitch fix. haidi: battery maker asc is said

to have just closed a $1 billion funding round seeking to raise more money for growth for investors, a steppingstone to going public in the u.s. the nikkei reporting the japanese government will relax visa rules for foreigners to obtain status. plus, mitsubishi in central japan railway reporting on monday. japanese markets will be opening at the top of the next hour. this is what we will be watching. another focus when it comes to the yen, particularly when it comes to that we are going into boj decision week. does that potentially mean we will see a bit of a rise? certainly market watchers believe the yen is in a position to receive some strength with some expectations building that we will hear language from the

boj on how they plan to normalize policy. certainly there's a risk of market followed not just for the young but yields and inflation focus. staying with japan, suntory which brought japanese whiskey into the global landmark, is marking their 100th anniversary of whiskey making this year. nobuhiro torii who leads the business, talks about how the distillery will continue to prioritize quality going ahead. >> we will continue to assure our quality, so we do not want to pursue volume and we have to create values with our whiskeys quality. quality is far more important than anything else. >> that stirs a big japanese

whiskey boom. there are a lot of voices asking for your company to offer more in volume as well. >> unfortunately, it takes time. for a 12-year-old whiskey, we need more than 12 years. so i have to ask our important consumers to be very patient. >> you will gradually increase your output volume. >> yes, we are now increasing inventory, but again we have to wait another couple of years to have more regular whiskey. it takes another 10 to 15 years to have more premium whiskeys. >> serving overseas customers, how do you approach europe, u.s., and china? >> with limited supply, unfortunately we have to

prioritize the area or cities, so we will focus on some cities in the united states, in asian countries. >> you have also renewed some distilleries. i wonder whether you have any new strategies to host more inbound tourists. >> of course, this year is the anniversary. we have renovated some distilleries. we love to work on -- with whiskey lovers from all over the world. >> speaking of the current yen situation, it is week, about ¥150 per dollar. whether this could create any new challenges for your business? >> there are some challenges

especially in the business of japan because of the yen, at the same time, the income from outside thanks to the weakening yen, it could be bigger. we are relatively neutral against exchange rates. >> is there one thing you could change for japan? >> the biggest challenge we are facing in the future is probably asian society. we have to be more open to foreigners and we should accept some immigrants from the world. vonnie:vonnie: that was the suntory spirits ceo nobuhiro torii speaking to grey swan in tokyo. you can catch japan ahead every week at 7:40 p.m. sunday in new york. bloomberg subscribers can watch on the -- terminal at tv .

this is bloomberg. ♪ business premier card is made for people like sam, who make- everyday products, designed smarter. like a smart coffee grinder, that orders fresh beans for you. oh, genius! for more breakthroughs like that- i need a breakthrough card. like ours! with 2.5% cash back on purchases of $5,000 or more. plus unlimited 2% cash back on all other purchases. and with greater spending potential, sam can keep making smart ideas- a brilliant reality! the ink business premier card from chase for business. make more of what's yours.

vonnie: you are watching "bloomberg daybreak asia." here are the top stories. united autoworkers have expanded their strike against general motors. union members walked out of gm

plants on saturday as negotiations with the automaker falter. gm is the only company that doesn't have a deal with the uaw after forward and stellantis reached tentative agreements. 's agreements have been held up by issues over disagreements on temporary workers. the ftx co-founder sam bankman-fried is set to return to the stand where he is likely to face a bruising cross-examination. on friday he took the stand to say he made mistakes but did not commit fraud. he painted himself as a disengaged ceo and attempted to cast doubt on the testimony of former colleagues who have pled guilty to a fraud scheme that they say he masterminded. it's a big day for chinese bank earnings with hsbc and bank of china set to report later. for more, let's bring in our breaking news editor felix. what are the expectations for hsbc earnings?

reporter: hsbc is going to report earnings today and investors are focusing on exposures to the chinese markets. last week we reported a result that may reach estimate's because of charges related to china, especially for the property sectors. we are also watching whether the bank will have a new round of buybacks are they just completed the previous round last week. overall we are expecting net interest to jump because of rising rates. haidi: last week there were reporting barely profit growth, zero point 03% in the third quarter. how is that setting up against boc earnings? reporter: we just mentioned broad weaknesses in the chinese economy.

investors are shifting focuses to the offshore businesses to see whether they can support the overall groanings earth -- growth. it has lower ability to buffer the earnings score by releasing provisions. it is a challenging year for chinese banks because they have a credit crunch. the asset -- vonnie: nearlyvonnie: $2 trillion worth of chinese company earnings reporting this week. what kinds of themes are we watching out for? reporter: there's also a big week for automakers in asia, especially right now. the industry is ramping up

efforts in transformation and decarbonization. we are already seeing third quarter earnings because of record sales in new energy vehicles. shares in india jumped to a record high earlier this month because they were expecting to reverse a net loss. toyota is also going to report earnings this week and we expect they may give details about the ev industry. haidi: felix tan. you can catch our exclusive conversation with the hsbc owner at half past 1:00 if you are watching in hong kong. this is bloomberg. ♪

it's an amazing thing when you show generosity of spirit to someone. and you want people to be saved and to have a better life, then you don't stop. the idea that we have saved five million people's lives, it's overwhelming. it's everything.

vonnie: vonnie: this is "bloomberg daybreak asia." we are counting you down to asia's major market opens. it seems that even with everything weighing on the markets, the u.s. session at least is pointed higher when it comes to futures in the u.s. and it looks like it might even be a risk on day which might be unusual. it could be a month that the market has digest this. haidi: at the amount of magnitude and risk right now, we have earnings, a number of key central-bank decisions. we are also looking at the beginning of the ground invasion of gaza and all the uncertainties and risks that come from that. let's take a look at how were shaping up. unsurprising that a degree of caution is dominating. annabelle: it's a big focus for a lot of investors as the trading week gets underway the open now for japan and korea and

starting measure for cash treasuries. over the weekend we have israel announcing what it calls the second stage of the war against hamas. sources say the campaign is likely to ask -- last anywhere from six weeks to six months. the u.s. is seeing elevated risk of regional spillovers so there's a lot to keep treaters anxious. you can see the nikkei, slide down more than 1%. it's not just with the focus is on the middle east but there's also other things like earnings and central banks. another key watch risk because we have the fed, boj and boe among those reporting decisions this week. they are expected to hold but it could spark further volatility and a lot of focus on a key u.s. bond sales program doing the midweek that could further inject volatility into u.s. treasuries. the yield debt moving higher, the japan 10 year yield very

close to the .9% level which would be testing the upper limit in place for the boj. really a lot of pressure on bank officials in japan given they are expected to keep easy policy settings in place. let's take a look at the open for korea because we are seeing mastec futures trading a little higher. seeing the tech heavy index with modest gains. we had the dollar losing a little ground in the early part of trading. we also saw a pullback in oil and that was noticeable given the conflict is escalating in the israel hamas war. the ground offensive is starting cautiously. australia is one hour into the

trading session so far today and there is one key sector moving higher. that is materials. otherwise, stocks are in the red. the asx 200 down 1%. it is the moves in gold prompting that. gold is fairly steady and still holding near the $2000 announce level. it pushed above that for the first time since may on friday. haidi: thank you for that. vonnie: as you were telling us earlier, evergrande faces a make or break monday -- roman monday at a hearing. for more on the risks related to this and everything else, hartmut issel, head of aipac equities at ubs joins us. as a possible it changes the trajectory of china and property rules? >> i think if we take the bigger

picture, many of the measures we have seen since basically august, a lot of things have come out especially front and heavy -- front end heavy. the package that came out the weekend before last weekend, but they have not commented that china seems to allow little more leverage, very strict the last 18 months. that has had her cut -- repercussions on property. if you loosen that a little bit, it should continue to the economy and the property market finding a bit of a bottom. if you find the data, it is still negative of course. from an investor's point of view , you also watch the delta. sometimes it seems not quite as negative as it used to be. i think we are in the early stages of a process where we are seeing the negative signs or the magnitude of the negative signs on the china property which is

probably also supportive for chinese assets. vonnie: would it be a huge event if the hong kong court for to tell china evergrande to mind up? >> it does not hurt sentiment but if you look at stock prices, you could not say negative news is completely unexpected. i think the mechanism i described, that's why i'm saying we need to take the view one level higher and acknowledge china does allow more leverage in the system and in my view it is the overarching consideration that changes the delta's. vonnie: i have to ask about current events and the week we are shaping up for it is it looks to be risk on even as hostilities increase between israel and hamas.

what kind of repercussions are you anticipating in the market? >> i think the pullback in the market can also be assigned in the last couple days, more and more investors are looking into next year and wonder if the u.s. doesn't see stronger cooling, which is what is to be expected. if it was only about middle east and risks, you would have expected gold to jump even higher than it already has. there was a need in our view, and the u.s. is the least preferred market. it is still so expensive to face a little more reality and i think that was important. i don't actually think that, what happens in the middle east, people take a different view, given that other big countries don't get directly involved. i don't see too much change from that.

vonnie: where should investors position themselves if they are looking for a safe haven? > in my view, the lowest hanging fruit is high quality bonds. that can go from government bonds, safer investment rate bonds. we have seen yields which we have not seen probably in the last 15 years. global economies, the u.s., really does move slower, and inflation with it. beyond the carry, you get potential -- that's probably the first place where i would look. vonnie: i have to ask about the boj meeting. it is the one central bank where you might get movement this week your it are you anticipating anything to do with the tweaking of policies? >> whether they actually take

action i think is a question mark, but i believe they might go further in that direction and take more steps last year -- next year possibly. even though when we come to the yen, the big investment implication, probably the boj is not really the moving element of the two sides. it is still probably the dollar, therefore what happens in the u.s., we get payroll on friday, so we will see if we get a lead from that. other than that, i think it's likely the boj is moving. maybe into next year, the yen could have quite some upside. vonnie: upside is in strength? >> strength, yes, in the sense of we are looking for 140. but when the move usually happens on the yen it happens

without warning and very quickly. it is certainly a place i would point out to investors to look at and be ready. vonnie: thank you very much, hartmut issel, head of apac equities and credit at ubs wealth management. let's have a look at those stocks. annabelle: the big move coming across in brent crude this morning even how investors are digesting the latest headlines coming out of the israel hamas work. over the weekend, we know israel announced the second stage of the war against hamas. this is a ground offensive but so far it does appear to be being taken day by day by the israelis. of course front and center, that's the human toll. from a markets perspective, it is the focus on oil coming through. tel aviv does seem to take a more cautious approach. you are seeing brent crude pullback below $90 a barrel level.

we are seeing some reaction coming through in energy linked stocks and mostly declining in tandem with the oil insole. throughout the course of the war, there has been investor reaction into safe haven assets, and goal has been the one to note, up more than 10% since the start of the war, holding around the $2000 per ounce level. it is that reaction into the gold linked stocks and you can see the ones moving to the upside in sydney. haidi: still had, we will take a look at the chinese economy and why a university professor thinks china might not be able to maintain current levels for more than a few years. first, israel sends troops and tanks into the gaza strip as it intensifies the war against hamas.

the latest on the conflict, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

vonnie: israel has sent troops and tanks into the northern gaza strip in order calls the second phase of its operation against hamas. prime minister jim and netanyahu warned this stage will be long and if difficult. that's get more from bloomberg's bruce einhorn. when netanyahu says long and difficult, does he have a timeline for the second phase reporter:? according to several officials, israel is looking at an invasion that can last anywhere from six

weeks to six months. the goal this time is very different from the way israel has addressed hamas in the past. israel has had invasions in the past where the goal has been to damage hamas but leavings its standing as an organization. officials say this time the goal is to eliminate hamas as an organization. the united states has expressed concern to israel, what is the vision after that? what comes next? that is something that still remains to be seen. the biggest issue on the ground in gaza is the humanitarian crisis. there are a million people who have been displaced and the united nations is saying it's where houses are being ransacked as civil order there continues to deteriorate.

haidi: how present are the concerns that this could result in regional spillover? reporter: inreporter: israeli officials tell u.s. officials they are confident in the next stage of the war that they believe hezbollah will not launch a second front in the war. the united states has issued warnings. jake sullivan, the national security advisor to president biden on sunday was on one of the talk shows and said the u.s. would attack iranian proxies again if u.s. forces were attacked as they have been in the past. that is one of the concerns this could lead to a widening conflict. the defense minister from saudi arabia is due to be on washington -- in washington

monday for discussions and that is no doubt high on the agenda. vonnie: president biden for promised funding for israel, and then there was the speaker debacle. will israel get funding? reporter: you refer to the speaker debacle. there were several weeks where there was no speaker. republicans in the house finally elected a speaker last week, mike johnson from louisiana. the house can start getting back into business. one of the top things on the to do list is aid to israel as well as aid to ukraine and aid to taiwan. the timetable for that is not yet clear. vonnie: we will watch out for that this week. thank you. that is bloomberg's bruce einhorn. other geopolitical stories we are tracking. trade ministers from the group of seven have criticized some countries for exploiting the commercial vulnerabilities of others to pursue policy

objectives. they pledge to build a wider network to ensure resilient supply chains, although no culprits were named, it is likely china is a target of the language. recently beijing has used tariffs and import bands in attempts to express displeasure. argentina's economy minister and presidential candidate has threatened to cut fuel exports as the country grapples with supply shortages. he has warned companies will not be able to send out export ships from one state of supply issues are not addressed. argentina's oil and gas producers say they expect the situation to normalize in the next few days. haidi: u.s. and chinese officials have agreed in principle to a biden cease summit but there still no announcement. the chinese foreign minister announces the path to a summit remains bumpy. let's bring in our chief north asia correspondent stephen in hong kong. more engagement is better than no engagement that we've seen in

recent years so where are we at? reporter: there's no indication either side is giving ground on the long list of sticky issues. obviously the chinese probably want to talk about the economic differences between the countries including export controls and whether there's wiggle room from the white house to relax them or the tariffs from the trump era. the ambassador says the u.s. does not offer concessions. both sides sort of digging in their heels, that's why there's really no announcement about a summit. and that is only coming up in a couple weeks time. the series of meetings will happen in san francisco between november 11 and 17th. the leaders summit is the 15th to the 17th. you're talking a little over two weeks from now and no official date or venue or announcement of a summit.

but these two gentlemen, biden and xi, have not even spoken in nearly a year since the sidelines of the g20 in bali. the top diplomat goes to washington, he has two days of talks, six hours with jake sullivan, with antony blinken, and about one hour as well with president biden. and it was this diplomat lowering expectations saying it will be a bumpy road. there's no doubt both sides want a meeting, but what are the optics going to be and what are the ground rules if any for such a high-profile meeting? vonnie: and both countries are playing so many roles in the world at the moment. the war in the middle east is a factor and the continuing russian were on ukraine and so on. but what will be the items that

president xi jinping and biden want to talk about to be successful on? reporter: clearly if xi jinping wants to travel and have high-profile meetings with president biden, he would like movement of some sort from the u.s. on export controls. it doesn't look like anything from the u.s. indicates the white house is willing to do that. clearly not congress heading into an election year and of course a republican-led house and a new speaker. there are a lot of landmines in the path ahead for xi jinping going to washington. for the u.s., the readout of the meeting with biden and meetings with jake sullivan and antony blinken touched on the typical u.s. positions. frank discussions on tibet, hong kong, disputes in the south china sea, the drug situation

with fentanyl. i know it's a big issue in the u.s.. again, the middle east, the u.s. pressed china to take a more constructive approach in the middle east and wants clarity on beijing's support. not military but supportive moscow 20 months into the war in ukraine. there are pressing issues the world's two biggest economies' chiefs need to talk about. vonnie: you can get around up of the stories you need to know to get you going. go to dayb on your terminals. it's also available on mobile in the bloomberg anywhere app and customize your settings so you only get news on the industries and assets you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ explore endless design possibilities.

to find your personal style. endless hardie® siding colors. textures and styles. it's possible. with james hardie™. the chase ink business premier card is made for sam who makes, everyday products, designed smarter. genius! like 2.5% cash back on purchases of $5,000 or more, so sam can make smart ideas, a brilliant reality! chase for business. make more of what's yours.

was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. we just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. start for free at godaddy.com

vonnie: turning to energy, oil and gas markets are set for another volatile week of trading. this as israel rounds up its long anticipated ground invasion into gaza. a big escalation of risks but we are seeing oil come off in the asian session. reporter: it does look at this point the first phase of the ground war, that it is limited to israel and gaza and the number one concern has been for many asset traders whether this extends beyond the region. also there's what a lot of analysts call a feeding of the war premium. you notice in the three day chart that nymex surged friday, the beginning of the groundwork as israel announced it would be a long war and then fell off just like brent crude did down below 90. falling by more than 2% at one

point in asia trading. down by about 1%. that is a significant pullback from both grades of oil. it's important to realize the mideast supplies the world with about one third of its oil, so this -- concern about any supply disruption in the region has been very high, really since the start of october 7 and that's why we've seen oil have wild swings each week going forward. over the weekend we know both washington and tehran warned the conflict could still spread in the u.s. sees and elevated risk of regional spill over and says it will remain on guard for any attacks on u.s. groups that may be through iran by proxy. we heard rhetoric from iran which said the war "may force everyone to take action." that's the concern. drop in the bloomberg and what we've seen according to trading stats is a lot of bullish bets by hedge funds pulling back to

an eight week low. you are seeing projections for oil to pullback for other technical reasons, so there's no surprise we are seeing oil pullback in the asian trading or the one thing that could change the entire game would be any disruption in the street of her move. -- strait of hormuz. that's the critical water weight iran has a lot of control over. we saw a minor disruption in july where iran was accused of interrupting an oil tanker and any disruption in that area could cause the price of oil to skyrocket. that is what traders are watching for. vonnie: we are seeing the impact of the gaza conflict on egypt as well when it comes to national -- natural gas shipments. reporter: that has a lot to do with israel at the beginning of the conflict asked chevron to shut down the tomorrow oil fields. chevron has an offshore platform that produces a lot of natural

gas, and apparently egypt gets most of its natural gas from israel. this according to the egypt cabinet that announced over the weekend hasn't -- resulted in natural gas shipments dropping to zero. that again related to the qamar gas field and what it will do is put all european natural gas traders on alert because egypt takes this natural gas and transforms it into liquefied natural gas and exports it throughout europe. it looks like they will not be able to resume that anytime soon and what we have now is all of the energy trading community, particularly traders and investing partners taking a very close day by day look at what's going on in the mideast conflict , because any supply disruption that goes further than what we are now seeing could turn oil higher. back to you.

haidi: let's look at how futures in europe are opening up at the moment giving -- given the volatility and uncertainty in asian sessions at the moment. we are seeing that proliferation when it comes to earnings and profit warnings in the previous session in europe. obviously geopolitics, the conflict in the middle east will continue to be a top story. you are looking at live pictures as we are monitoring the widening of the ground offensive in gaza. prime minister netanyahu coming under criticism for his unwillingness to accept responsibility for failing to detect that october 7 attack as well.

after i lost my mom, i lost my way. then i found youth advocate programs, yap behavioral health services. as a little kid, i made some mistakes, but i'm not a mistake. [male narrator] yap gives communities alternatives to residential care, youth incarceration and neighborhood violence.

after completing our program nearly 90 percent of participants remain in their community. i'm working towards a bright future. [narrator] youth advocate programs. others talk social change. we make it happen. ♪ comcast jingle ♪ ♪ haidi: take a look at

australia's retail sales, a beat on expectation. concerns in the survey was 40.3% and a big jump from august as we saw the third quarter inflation report becoming harder than expected, some repricing when it comes to rba expectations. i wonder what michelle bullock would make of all of these numbers? given that she said inflation numbers came in as the bank had expected, not too much of a surprise if they are accounting for heat within the australian economy but that gives a little bit more of a lift when it comes to weakness in the australian dollar if this adds to expectations that the rba will have to do more. we saw inflation linked along

positions failing after the rba testimony in particular toward the end of the month but certainly when it comes to australia, the state of the economy, the data points, there is uncertainty as to how rba will progress over the next few meetings. annabelle: the decision tuesday is going to come down to the wire. a hold or hike but we are into the trading session, a start to the week in asia and you can see markets are trending to the downside underway here. there are a couple of different factors over the weekend as we have been discussing. israel started its ground offensive into gaza, proceeding cautiously. still the second stage of the warm is something that could last from a couple of weeks up

to six months and the u.s. is among those flagging the chance that it becomes a regional conflict and expands further is certainly going higher and traders are cautious. it's not just the middle east that is front and center but a lot of central bank decisions in the coming days, rba is tuesday but this is about the fed, boe, boj. another level of uncertainty. the moves and treasuries have been off expectation of the fed holding higher for longer because of that it really does remove the investor interest in equities and these results came out at the top of the hour for our survey. our stocks overvalued? most are saying yes for the s&p 500 and nasdaq, tech stocks are standing out because 15% said it

was only that index. the impact of treasury yields, off the 5% level that we touched last week for the first time since 2007. we are quite close in yields, fractionally higher. the impact on the u.s. economy, respondents are split. a majority saying a hard landing, 47% of the u.s. economy would manage it. listen to what guests set on this question. >> big adjustment in bond yields, more than 100 basis points. >> we'd seen the tenure move up and people are dismissing the totality. >> we are starting to see stability as yield sensitive buyers are coming in, capping the rises in yields. >> we can take down supply. treasuries are risk-free. >> how does 5% yield stack up

against a return on the nasdaq? >> which assets are overvalued? it is not bonds, it is stocks. >> i don't see a massive transition away from holding equities. vonnie: singapore managing director ravi sees a path out of high inflation without a recession. he told bloomberg economies have been resilient. >> you have to accept that inflation has come down without excessive cost on the economy and unemployment. many including myself thought as central banks tightened monetary policy at the most rapid pace in decades, the economy would have to dip into recession to purge out price pressers.

the risk remains on the horizon but at least now we can imagine a path to lower inflation without having a recession, which one year ago we were less sure about. >> you announced a tweak in the frequency of meetings, is that in response to these uncertainties you're talking about? what is the thinking right now? >> in the last two years we have had to make off cycle moves. if you do that in response to quickly changing developments ones and 10 years markets understand. you have to move out of cycle. if it becomes frequent than apprehension, this does not mean we are moving toward a shorter-term orientation. it's always been medium-term so that was one of the reasons why we hesitated.

>> there's been volatility in the markets and we are seeing massive movements in the bond space, 10 year yields hit 5% for the first time since 2007. how are you looking at how high they have gone in such a short time? >> we should not forget the good news wishes they did not blow up into something bigger. problems were contained because the banking system is resilient against interest rates. some households are not but by and large we manage the transition to higher yields. >> how about the risk from boj? when it makes an exit from why cc or its zero rate policy that might cause volatility? >> be thankful that the monetary policy tightening and removal of

easing has not been synchronized. because if it happened at the same pace and scale in the u.s. and japan the impact on the world would be bigger. thankfully they are in different points, responses have been different, u.s. taking the hardest position in terms of removal followed by ecb and japan. the sequencing and central banks responding to the domestic situation hasn't been bad. >> leucine gyrations, the dollar has been stable against the u.s. dollar, are you comfortable with the movements? >> has never been bothered. all currencies have depreciated against the dollar reflecting monetary policy.

i think that is not a concern but when you look at the exchange against all other currencies the singapore dollar appreciates. monetary policy has brought down inflation from five-and-a-half percent down to the latest numbers, 3, 2 .5% by the end of the year. the mission is not accomplished yet but it is on track. vonnie: managing director ravi speaking with haslinda on it. up next, we speak with michael and get his thoughts on china's growth trajectory. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: chinese president xi jinping is set to tighten control of china's financial industries. he told bankers to set the direction for the next five years. they will host a conference in beijing later today at a pivotal time for the country amid questions over political and economic trajectory. china's stimulus and diplomatic moves provide calls for optimism

when it comes to markets. the benchmark posting the biggest weekly gain in two months. investors showing at north guard star connect. we'd seen all the gains from the reopening rally wiped out and restarting to covid zero levels. let's get some views in terms of an existential crisis that china's economy is facing. michael is professor of finance at peking university. you have written about china's economy for a very long time. with the passing there seems to be a lot of reflection about the development path and reform path not taken root do you see further centralization and such in the future? >> the adjustment china is facing is difficult enough that

it probably could not have been done without centralization of power. one of the big questions that china has to deal with is a political question, if you are going to resolve the debt and increase household share of gdp in order to let consumption play a bigger role, costs have to be absorbed either by beijing or local governments and i would argue that it is unlikely to be absorbed by beijing and unwilling to be absorbed by local governments so part of centralization has been dealing with a very contentious debate between local governments and central government over the allocation of costs. haidi: we've seen households take a hit from growing pain and

is this going to be the case again? can you even fix household wealth and confidence without the property market? michael: well i hope you're wrong because i think it's gonna take quite a while to fix the property market, the property sector is large and producing more than the economy can absorb and crisis compared to other countries and historically are still extremely high, so i've never been very confident of stabilizing the property market. we've got a ways to go before it bottoms out. >> how do you rejuvenate confidence? there was talk about direct payments as a way to kickstart it but is it too late? is the middle income trap just

another aspect of it? >> it's not too late since they haven't really done it. the way i would argue to revive confidence is straightforward. if you can revive income, increase wages, strengthen the social safety net, presumably chinese households will feel more confident about spending, they will spend more and that will lead to business investment in get a positive self reinforcing cycle. the problem is quite difficult because in order to increase the household share of gdp you have got to implement a series of transfers that are the opposite of what china has been doing, so it is quite difficult but at least there is a consensus among

economists if not policymakers that that is what china needs to do. haidi: when it comes to the longer-term do you look at the myriad of challenges being faced, to see this as structural things coming home to roost or is this a cyclical slowdown? >> it is structural. we are having a small cyclical recovery although i suspect that the recovery is starting to slow down and will slow down in october but the real problem is structure. if you look at china, let me check my numbers, 27% of the chinese economy consists of manufacturing and in the u.s. it is 11% and globally its 16%. what that tells us is china with 18% of global gdp accounts for

30% of global manufacturing and what we are seeing and have been seeing in recent years is that china has been shifting investment out of property and they are trying to shifted out of infrastructure and into the manufacturing sector so even if they are not successful, even if it retains its current level, and about 10 years if you believe china can grow which i doubt, if you believe that, you must also believe that in 10 years, 37% of manufacturing will take place in china, another way of saying the rest of the world will reduce manufacturing to accommodate china and think that is incredibly unlikely. the point that i would make is a lot of things that china could

do when it was five or 10% of the world becomes very difficult when china is 18, 19, 20% of the world because you have constraints on the structural model that they follow for three decades. haidi: there is always debt and that has been a big part of your writings. is that an avenue because that is the playbook that would see them resorting to time and time again. >> issuance continues to be high. debt is a way out until it is not and you do not want to find out when it is not but i would argue that this is a very important year when you look back because i think this was the year that it became very clear that china has a debt problem at the local government level. while that continues to grow

think it is growing with more reluctance, nervousness about watching it grow and we don't know how much longer can go on but i think beijing has decided that it wants to try to rein in the debt. if it does that there is no way that they won't rein in the gdp growth. haidi: when it comes to properties at this point given correlations with many aspects of the economy do we push aside moral hazard? is it time to bring in a rescue fund? michael: if you listen to the local governments that time was one or two years ago. local governments are being squeezed but to its credit beijing has been reluctant to bail the sector out because of recognition.

at the peak, residential property was her around 350% of gdp and in the rest of the world is quite high. but high compared to historical standards is a hundred 20, 100 30% of gdp so china was much higher, real estate prices are higher than anywhere else and that's why beijing has recognize that they can't step in. they would like to see a more gradual decline but i don't think that can happen. haidi: when it comes to the demographic story is this something prewritten or do you think policymakers can with domestic emigration and policies perhaps improve the outlook? michael: you know, i worry less

about a national demographic because if they can redistribute income even a a a slightly declining preppy elation -- population means rising consumption. you think about demographics what you should be thinking about is the two different china's. there is china and southeastern provinces that are wealthy, a lot a lot of debt but manageable. and they have growing working populations thanks to internal immigration. then you have the rest of the country which accounts for three quarters of the population, over half of gdp. and there you see an exacerbation of the demographic problem because many provinces have a low birthrate and many of

their best educated young people are leaving. so rather than look at a demographic problem in china what we should do is consider separate parts of china, each of which has a different demographic file. haidi: great to have you with us giving us food for thought. professor at peking university, plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ vonnie: hong kong court is said to hear china evergrande's case on monday where the developer must defend against requests. kevin kingsbury joins us. what is at stake today? >> the latest windup hearing case that started in 2022 when an investor in evergrande invested in the operation and it did not go public within one year, so they demanded repayment of investment, evergrande did not give a satisfactory response and so the company and investors went back and went to court last

year to get the process going for liquidation which has gotten much more possible since they scrapped the offshore debt restructuring vote. haidi: there is a time when this would be inconceivable, how did we get here? >> we had this process where homeowners and builders -- we've run into this trouble where homebuilders run short of cash, homeowners boycott mortgage payment so we've had a government response to try to get this development going where evergrande has gotten into trouble with defaults in late 2021 and read this point where because of the judge centering the case where the company is facing liquidation, we are at a point where we might get

liquidation like you said, it seemed inconceivable given that this was china's biggest developer. haidi: china credit editor kevin with the latest on evergrande, what a story the rise and fall of china's property giants. take a look at markets, we're focusing on the evergreen story and crosscurrents with the escalation of the conflict in the middle east, the ground incursion by israeli forces and a huge week for the central bank decisions and earnings, downside here when it comes to trading in tokyo. the kospi keeping its head above water. health care and financials are leading lower. ♪

it's an amazing thing when you show generosity of spirit to someone. and you want people to be saved and to have a better life, then you don't stop. the idea that we have saved five million people's lives, it's overwhelming. it's everything. ♪