tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg October 30, 2023 1:30pm-2:00pm EDT
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ing, all over the world, and looks at the most effective ways, to get resources to them, to get services to them. the idea that we have saved five million people's lives, it's overwhelming. it's everything. jon: i'm jon erlichman pit welcome to "bloomberg markets." matt: i'm matt miller. we are seeing gains on stocks even as the yields rise as well. we are listening to comments from benjamin netanyahu, right now speaking in english, talking about the israel-hamas more. let's listen in. prime min. netanyahu: it will
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continue to use mosques as fortified military positions and weapon depots. they will continue to steal fuel and humanitarian assistance for facilities. while israel is doing everything to get palestinian civilians out of harm's way, hamas is doing everything to keep palestinian civilians in harm's way. israel urges palestinian civilians to leave the areas of armed conflict while hamas prevents those civilians from leaving those areas that can point - -at gunpoint. hamas is preventing foreign nationals from leaving gaza altogether but most despicably, hamas is holding over 200 israeli hostages including 33 children, holding them, terrorizing them, keeping them as hostages. every civilized nation should stand with israel in demanding that these hostages be freed immediately and freed unconditionally.
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i want to make clear israel's position regarding the cease-fire. just as the united states would not agree to a cease-fire after the bombing of pearl harbor or after the terrorist attack of 9/11, israel will not agree to assist a-- a cessation of attacks on hamas after the horrific attacks of october 7. calls for a cease-fire or calls for a surrender to trevor, surrender to barber -- surrender to trevor, surrender to barbarism. that will not happen. the bible says there is a time for peace and a time for war. this is a time for war, a war for our common future. today we draw a line between the forces of civilization and the forces of barbarism. it is a time for everyone to decide where they stand. israel will stand against the forces of barbarism until victory. i hope nad p-- and pray that
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civilized nations everywhere will back this fight, because israel's fight is your fight, because if hamas and iran's axis of evil win, you will be the next target. that is what israel's victory will be your victory. but make no mistake, regardless of who stands with israel, israel will fight until this battle is won, and israel will prevail. may god bless israel and may god bless all those who stand with israel. matt: israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu there making a speech about the israel-hamas war, pushing back on any calls for a cease-fire. we will bring you more on that conflict as it crosses the wire. jon, right now i think we should get back to the business that we planned to cover today, because we have the end of the uaw
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strike. gm finally agreeing with the unions on a way forward, that follows stellantis on saturday and ford on wednesday. jon: it does indeed. i want to bring in bloomberg's detroit bureau chief david welch, who has been extremely busy covering every twist and turn and was busy breaking those headlines this morning on this gm a portion of the story. how did that all come together? when did we find out that gm ultimately and the uaw seemed to be finally finding a path forward? david: fairly early this morning. they had talks yesterday after the union had briefed everybody on the four to deal, which is what set the pattern for the deal with stellantis. everyone is being hush-hush about it right now. only know is that they had to agree to a 25% raise, cost of living allowances for workers,
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better pay and compensation for temporary workers, a big issue for the union. those are big deals. we will probably find out more detail to see if the gm contract varies much from the other to the next few days. matt: we don't know all of the details, but we do know that this is a pretty rich deal, david. it strikes me that if they want to add any new capacity, they are likely to do it in mexico and canada. david: i think that is a very good possibility that the union has to look at. they have pushed up costs a lot. to be fair to the union, this is making up for raises that the workers did not get the last few years. a lot of workers in other sectors did get raises. there has been decent wage growth in the country along with the inflation the past four years. but it is still a very rich contract for the union pit they scored a lot of victories here. the countries will have to think
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twice about hiring new people under these terms if they are going to expand anywhere. they will look to canada, which has a similar contract, not quite as rich, and in mexico the costs are far lower. matt: david, thanks very much. our detroit bureau chief covering the strike for us. interesting to see how the uaw brings this -- i guess it has got to be seen as a victory after spartanburg for bmw. we're joined by betsy stephenson, university of michigan professor of economics and public policy. she was chief economist at the u.s. labor department and a member of president obama's council of economic advisers. very impressive cv there. betsy, what do you see in terms of the results of the deal that gm has struck and obviously stellantis and ford with the uaw? betsy: you know, i felt like the uaw had to be out there fighting for everything they could get.
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if we look at the shape unions have been in, lowest unionization rate on record. they are losing market share in the economy. we saw tremendous decrease in real wages meeting inflation- adjusted wages, relative to what nonunion workers were getting this was a time for unions to prove themselves. i think they did, but we should oversell -- we should not oversell the vector they got. they definitely did prove their worth and automotive -- autoworkers should be pleased with the deal, but they fought tooth and nail which in a lot of ways was just making up for what they lost due to not having cost-of-living adjustments during a time of expected -- unexpected high inflation, and remain to keep their foot in the door by agreements around unionization at the new electric vehicle plans and the abilities
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to strike if plants are being closed. this is about preserving unions. some of the big things they were looking for, coming down to a four-day workweek, they didn't get that. i think what we saw was the limits of workers' bargaining power. matt: do you think it will prove beneficial in terms of expanding union membership? are they going to be able to convince employees at bmw, tesla, mercedes, volkswagen, to join the union as well? betsy: you know, that is the big open question here. i think they did prove themselves. they have as a stronger case as they have ever had to make to those workers that they are here for you and there is really something to be said for centralized bargaining. having each and every worker try to negotiate this on their own is just not working. what we have seen is the labor
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share going down while shareholders are getting a big chunk of the revenue. a big grin bigger chunk of the revenue. unions have proven their worth, now they will have to go out there and make the case to people who would join a union and heavy union fees and -- to hand over some of the economy for negotiating with the union. i think there is a case to be made, but i want you to realize they are a net decline. even if they make the case with victories from what they may be doing is stemming that the client rather than seeing unionization grow. with 6% of the private sector unionize, we will not see unions making a big comeback at any time in the united states was the what they've done is show that there is still a place for them in american society, but there was a long road for them to go to become a bigger player in the labor market again. jon: betsy, you talked about the uaw fighting for all it could
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get. you wrote last month about the fact that we have seen so many strike actions in part because both sides aren't exactly sure what ultimately the right match should be, and that has played into the idea of uncertainty has played a role in some of the strike we have seen. what has been your general observation on the fact that we have just seen so much of strike action, period? betsy: when the unemployment rate came below 4%, a lot of economists were like, whoa, that's it, that is as low as unemployment can go, and all we will see is massive wage gains because workers have all the bargaining power. that is one of the reasons everybody was so worried we couldn't get inflation down, because the tight labor market, workers with all the bargaining power, the fear is it would spark inflation. that is not actually what we saw. that means two things -- it means, first of all, that we shouldn't over interpret low
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unemployment as saying that the labor market can't expand any further. but that also means that the low unemployment didn't mean that workers had quite as much bargaining power is some economists might've thought, particularly the economists who were saying on employment moffett go way back up to bring inflation down. i think what we have seen in these negotiations is that workers are in a better position in terms of bargaining power than they were, say, four years out of the 2008 recession. that is unquestionably true. but we have seen that there is a limit to how much bargaining power they have right now. we are just not really sure how much workers can get, how much employers need to give. that uncertainty creates the clash and therefore the strikes. we will continue to see workers pushing for as much as they can get an employers holdings on and giving only as much as they
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think they have to give. you will see those erupt into some strikes, like we are seeing with pharmacists. matt: great at some time with you. hope we can get you back soon. betsy stevenson talking to us about the end of the strike and unionization in america. i want to recap what we were hearing earlier from israeli prime minister jimmy netanyahu --benjamin netanyahu. he wrapped up remarks about the war in which he was pushing back against calls for a cease-fire with hamas. you gave us the remarks in english -- he gave us the remote in english, just to point out that he is giving them to us. he is dismissing any calls for his resignation as prime minister. he said in the past -- i'm sure many others in the government are saying as well -- that is something for after the war, right now let's focus on crushing hamas, and that is obviously their main goal. we will keep you updated on any development in israel.
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this is bloomberg. ♪ thanks to avalara, we can calculate sales tax automatically. avalarahhhhhh what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh business license guidance? ahhhhhh -cross-border sales? -ahhhhhh -item classification? -ahhhhhh does it connect with acc...? ahhhhhh ahhhhhh ahhhhhh
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jon: this is "bloomberg markets ." i am jon erlichman, with matt miller. time for our stock of the hour. we continue to cover the gm tentative deal with the united auto workers, and the most telling stock stories the performance the past six weeks since this unfolded. gm's market value has declined by $9 billion with the strike taking a big biota profits, but also with we learned with the reporting of the latest results forcing gm to pull its earnings guidance. matt: and also forcing ford to do the same thing. let's bring in jessica caldwell,
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executive director of industry analysis at edmonds. we all hoped that the strike is over. they have got agreements with -- the uaw has agreements with the big three. they have to ratify the agreements, which is why we are not 100% certain. when we look back, next earnings season, what are we going to see in terms of the damage done in terms of both the top line and the bottom line? what do you expect? jessica: they have already hinted to what has caused -- gm said last week it hundred million dollars, $200 million for every week going forward. this is going to take a hit, which isn't a surprise given how long the strike has been since september 15. part of the reason we are seeing the veneto is the uaw has started to pull big cards out. the big and kentucky. once those go, those are big for the bottom line of those companies. they do not want to lose too much production there because
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that is what they are going to be selling that is what so much of the earnings relies on. jon: and jessica, if we are going to get a sense on the focus on vehicle sales for these automakers but also where the consumer appetite is, because if we talked to you seven weeks ago, i'm sure we would've been talking about the ev transition and how the automakers are navigating new vehicles that are part of their big future versus some of the legacy products, and the economy itself is a big question going forward. what are you seeing and hearing right now? jessica: i think ev's we have to put of the site at some point. you have seen the past few weeks they are putting pins and some of the programs as we develop what the demand actually is. what we are looking at in the short term is how profitable those factories and collins will be -- truck factories, large suv factories. cold-weather months are
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approaching and that is when those vehicles tend to sell the most. that is what contributes to the bottom line. the fact that there able to move on and not be that effective in terms of product production, that is key. but yes, it is an interesting transition where we are talking by the future holistically with ev's, but it is very uncertain and them trying to suspend some of those programs and take a realistic look at what the next few years looks like is an important part of the entire story as we look at the profitability overall. matt: david wrote an interesting column for bloomberg about the electric-car market and the demand not being there anymore as much as the automakers thought it was going to be. the ice production and the big trucks, these huge margins, are probably that profitable because they haven't really had to put a lot of investment into development on that side of things. they figured we are going to
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make ev 's in the future, so why would we want to develop, for example, at gm, 6.2-leader the eight, fantastic engine, let's leave it as it is. are they going to have to put more money on the gasoline set of things if they produce fewer ev's? jessica: they may have to, and i think that is part of this whole transition, no one knows how fast or how slow it is going to go. there were bets last year that had a transitioning a lot quicker. now the market is slowing down in high interest rates, people that want to put money on these ev's. maybe they don't want to transition to ev's. there is a refocus on the internal combustion engine vehicle programs that will get them through the next few years and are ultimately financing the transition to the electric future as well as autonomous technology, because there is not really profitability in ev 's yet, even the ones they do sell. right now it is a tough time because they are juggling so many things, essentially running
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one business and planning for this new future which they really haven't had to do. suddenly things are changing at a rapid pace. jon: insightful analysis as always, jessica. thanks so much for your time. jessica caldwell from edmonds. we continue to track the auto story. the market is waiting to hear the u.s. from the u.s. that's the latest from the u.s. federal reserve, but investors may be more focused on an announcement from the u.s. treasury the same day. we will explain why next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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borrowing plans could steal the show. we are waiting for the so-called quarterly refunding announcement, which gives us a sense of the government's needs in the face of big deficits. many bond dealers are predicting the refunding size to be around $114 billion. matt: we are going to find out, i believe at 3:00 this afternoon, exactly how big it is going to be, and then we will find out the details of their plan to raise the money wednesday morning. let's get to the corporate side of issuance. this week is off to a fast start with morgan stanley, hyundai, and others announcing deals. it is the busiest day since labor day. joining us to discuss why we are seeing this rush is a bloomberg credit markets reporter. thank you for coming on set with us. why is this such a busy day in terms of one-date issuance? >> of course, thanks for having me on. we have traded a very small
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window through which companies can come, and the reason is the last two weeks a lot of deals were sidelined because of great volatility. if you look ahead to this week, you have the jobs report, the federal reserve is meeting, all things that could inject volatility into the market. corporations are rushing to issue before things get rockier. jon: olivia, right now with the treasury yields where they are, you keep hearing this narrative around higher borrowing costs and making life more challenging for a lot of businesses. in your story today on the high-grade bond market, we do see companies that are at the ready with a lot of creativity. what would you say in terms of how they are approaching financing right now? olivia: yeah, great are certainly higher. what is happening is the market is beginning to adjust to the fact that it might be higher for longer. we have heard of companies trying to hold off last year from issuing because they wanted to wait until rates got lower.
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now that that does not seem to be happening, it is prompting more borrowers to come to the market. matt: we were talking to alex morris earlier from f/m investments about the treasury, and he said they want to go more short-term because they have to pay up for duration. on the other hand, the shorter you go, the more often you have to do with, come back to the market. what do you expect in terms of the individual deals? olivia: it's really tricky. most companies are looking to issue on the short end because of what you said, they do not want to lock in these higher rates for 40 years. bristol-myers was in the market today to help find an m&a and they issued 40-year debt. for the right price companies are willing to do it, and there is strong demand. we are seeing strong institutional investor demand for these bonds. matt: olivia, thanks very much. she covers the corporate credit market for us. we are seeing a spike in the s&p right now, trading around
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