tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg October 31, 2023 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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>> good morning and welcome the day break australia, i'm paul allen in sydney. annabelle: we are counting down to asia's major market opsherr'p stories is our. u.s. stocks gain with the fed decision now in focus, the end saw its biggest one-day fall since april. paul: dozens of people reported killed in israeli strikes on a gaza refugee camp as cause us as it will release some foreign captive soon. shery: sam bankman-fried struggles ahead of closing arguments of the ftx trial. u.s. futures coming online in the asian session under a little bit of pressure after we saw the s&p 500 managed to climb in the final trading session in the
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month of october, we had every sector in the green with real estate and financials leading the gains, but it was a tough month. we are talking about the longest monthly slide since the onset of the pandemic. we had disappointing earnings. results from tests giants in the late training session, we are seeing amd under pressure on disappointing revenue forecast, but we also had data showing the u.s. consumer confidence fell to a five month low at the same time we had employment costs unexpectedly rising, which shows you the resilience of the labor market, which makes you think what is the fomc going to do next as we head towards that decision. we had treasury yields rising across the board. two year yield topping the 5% level. we saw oil prices under a little bit of pressure in the new york session. see a little bit of a rebound in the asian session. we are talking about two month lows for wti on the expectation
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that perhaps the middle east crisis can't be contained. but at the same time we are very much firmly focused on the economic outlook for the world. also, perhaps a little bit of pressure coming from the u.s. dollar, also rising for the first time in three sessions. but really a lot to do with what's happening on the other side of the trade, which is the yen of the lows that we haven't seen since the 1990's. annabelle: that's right. really the flip side when you take a look at the dollar yen pair, what was driving it was the moves in the japanese currency. we had the boj decision yesterday in the session. the key take away is that the boj is allowing greater flexibility for jgb yields can trade. we are increasing that upper limit to 1%. the market reactions were quite interesting because that could've been something that would've given further strength into the japanese yen. a local media we had the reporting coming through, we had seen trading down to the 149 mark. now, we are trading around a
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fresh year to date low against the greenback, above that 151 mark. again, what is that telus, traders and investors are saying the boj needs to do more. that this step toward any sort of normalization, there is a rationale for the boj to really consider further exiting away from its current policy settings. that's a state of play for the japanese yen. the change and take a look at where we are seeing equities trading across the station. when you go over the futures market, it's looking fairly mixed in the session. you have japanese wands looking to come online flat. china to gains as is australia but perhaps that is the trading relationship between those two countries. new zealand stocks all that weakening trend intact again. paul: let's get back to the war in the middle east with hamas saying it will release some foreign captives within a day as fighting escalates inside gaza. health officials there say dozens of people were killed and
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wounded by a series of israeli airstrikes on a refugee camp. for more, let's get to our director, jodi schneider, what we know? >> we know that there were a lot of airstrikes on that refugee camp and that several apartment buildings were hit. we don't know the number of wounded or dead yet, but it was a major strike, and the buildings that had been there were turned into craters. of course this comes as there is calls throughout the world, a lot of concerns about refugees within gaza and the civilian casualties as well as the worsening critical humanitarian situation there, so whenever this happens, there are calls for a cease-fire. we have heard from prime minister netanyahu say he will
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not have a cease-fire but whenever civilians are struck in a very visible way that will certainly increase calls for that. shery: there has been a lot of debate about whether a cease-fire is needed between hamas and israel. in the u.s. really wanting for a pause instead of a cease-fire. take a listen to what secretary blinken had to say about this. secretary blinken: when it comes to a cease-fire, in this moment you are exactly right, that was simply consolidate what hamas has been able to do and allow it to remain where it is and potentially repeat what it did another day. and that's not tolerable. shery: so, what's the message right now? jodi: the message that we heard from the secretary of state, who was testifying in the senate
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today as well as his defense secretary counterpoint lloyd austin, was that they want to see the funding. they want to see the funding for both israel and ukraine rushed there. they say that by either separating it or delaying it, all we are doing is allowing these situations to worsen. we are making that statement at the same time as we heard with the secretary of state there really doubled down on previous comments of the administration that it is not time for a cease-fire. a cease-fire would, he said, play into the hands of hamas. they are talking about a pause, and experts say a pauses different. it's not just linguistic, that that would allow more humanitarian aid to get into gaza. because the administration is saying there are two goals, supporting israel, supporting israel in its military fight against hamas, and supports the need for israel to defend itself, yet at the same time, is
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very concerned about the worsening crisis and particularly the worsening crisis among the refugees, and wants to get a and get people to leave if they can. so the u.s. is trying to balance those two needs and that's what we heard from both of those secretaries, those cabinet secretaries on capitol hill today. paul: we have a new house speaker in the u.s., that's mike johnson who has put together an israeli a proposal, but it is not done too well, how is he faring is his first test for speaker? jodi: it has been a tough couple days for the new speaker. the secretaries were on the hill today asking for support for 106 billion dollar aid package to both israel and ukraine, some money form taiwan in there. the new house speaker only wants 14 billion. he says it should be a rush job for israel, that that money should come right away, it should just be for israel and that ukraine will have to wait.
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that did not do very well in the senate where we see bipartisan support for the administration's request for this emergency funding, what we call a supplemental. so, he's getting some pushback. the other thing he's getting pushback about is how he would pay for it i basically taking some money that was earmarked for irs enforcement, more irs agents, better to knology, modernizing the irs so that it can collect more money, and a lot of people, obviously democrats, but also republicans are saying that is not what you want to be doing right now, you should not go after the irs money to try to find an emergency supplemental. shery: bloomberg's political director jodi schneider. really able to support the yen, which continue to weaken in u.s. trading after the boj loosened
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its grip on bond yields, it's a reminder for the governor of the pitfalls in trying to move toward policy normalization without disrupting markets. >> the bank of japan will not set strict upper limits or lower limits on long-term interest rates. under our adjustment operations, we don't see yields rising significantly beyond 1%, even if upward pressure is placed on long-term interest rates. shery: let's bring in bloomberg senior economy editor. this is coming at a time when we are headed toward another fomc decision. and if we hear this narrative of higher for a longer, how much pressure could z/yen see? >> that's right, we have had this market divergence between federal reserve and bank of japan policy for some time and even the latest signals from the fed is that they are at or near
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the peak haven't been enough to provide much relief to the yen, if we keep in mind that the longer dated treasuries are the ones where yields are going up. it seems like the governor can't get a break. you continue to see the yield differential driving flows out of the yen into the dollar. paul: the pboc is saying it will be financial. >> china central television saying that this recent occasion where we've seen funding rates in money markets in china is really all about irresponsible
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moves by banks to obtain funding, but i think the broader take away here is that china central bank hasn't yet developed mechanisms to deal with irregularities in money markets. if we think about the federal reserve, it has permanent facilities available that it uses to inject liquidity when there are these kinds of anomalies in money markets. and what we are seeing here is, and unnamed person speaking to bloomberg, we are certainly glad they are speaking to bloomberg, kind of explaining what the chinese central bank's response will be. this is not the behavior you would expect to see from a major central bank. they ought to have tools that are out there, that deal with
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these kinds of situations. we shouldn't be hearing china central television saying, it's a bunch of errors possible banks that are trying to corner money markets. this is not the kind of look, really, that chinese policymakers want when they are trying to bolster the international reputation of china's financial markets in the yuan. shery: chris, we just have a very important, twice a decade financial work conference. in the direction of policymaking given all of the challenges that you just talked about. chris: there was a very interesting line about how policymakers are going to examine just for a long time,
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what has been a major problem in china is you have these local authorities that raise funds in very un-transparent ways, they get into trouble when they leverage out too much. there's lack of transparency about where the money is going, about the projects that the money that is raised goes towards constructing. in the meantime, we have a central government in beijing that doesn't sell a whole lot of debt. china's central government debt ratio, don't hold need to it, but last time i checked it was 35%, 37%. this was very low for a major economy. and economists have long been saying that is the central government that ought to be doing more to fund some of these infrastructure projects. take it out from the local governments where things are transparent -- are not
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transparent, there's a lot of concerns about the sustainability of those local authorities, in this little tidbit that we got in this once and five-year financial conference suggests that policymakers are taking a look at a potential major restructuring in how the chinese public sector raises bonds. shery: bloomberg's economy senior editor. coming up, we speak to the u.n. general assembly president later this hour and discuss the international community's response to the israel-hamas war. but first, wealth management firms chief economist tells us why they think the fed's upcoming decision is more uncertain the markets thing. more on the insights next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ explore endless design possibilities.
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interest rate of ability function on the bloomberg terminal, 0% chart of any move on rates from the fed. why do you think that markets could be maybe misjudging those. >> i don't know if they are misjudging tomorrow. i want change your percentages by saying i think they are not going to hold. i think they're going hold as well. there certainly is a lot of discussion in the economics community that feeds into the individual fomc members so that, you may want to hold, but really, if you are going to do with they would tell you to do, you should raise 25 basis points. the way that whole things comes down to me, and the reason i say there's a bit more uncertainty on what the fed will do, i'm thinking more about the narrative that has emerged quite
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recently that says they are done. so they won't raise rates this year. i'm not at all convinced of that yet and that has a lot to do with the numbers we got last week in the united states, very strong growth and inflation that is doing what was expected, meaning slowly decelerating, but not giving anybody any gifts in terms of saying, ok, fine, we will say we are done. the fed will not come out tomorrow and say we are done with this. i think what they're going to do is come out and say, we continue to watch the data, and they will elude in some way shape or form to the sharp increase in longer-term treasury yields that has occurred recently that has the effect of tightening monetary conditions. and so, they have done that kind
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of constantly and would keep l of options open. i just think that all of their options are still open, and i worry about returning to the use great certainties that existed earlier in the year, oh yeah, ok, fine. everything's ok, and the next step won't be down. i think that next step down is a long ways off, and i think there's more uncertainty on the part of fomc members then people really want to acknowledge. paul: data dependency is affiliate -- very familiar piece as is higher for longer. if the tightening cycles or maybe not over, surely we are getting very close to the end. how much higher and how much longer do you think we will have rates at? >> i will share my biases here, i am not of the mindset right now that one can simply look at growth and say, growth is a
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problem that feeds directly into the inflation numbers. it's a little bit bizarre, but i think there are a number of things going on that are influencing those inflation numbers, some are more structural than they are cyclical, so the increases in wage rates are probably structural then cyclical, there's not too much the fed can do about that. so, it's sort of waiting to see how this comes together and does the fed see enough progress on inflation that they could at least hold off on any further rate increases while they let the increase in longer-term yields play through? i think that's a great uncertainty, that's been the big change in the last month, month and a half, and there are legs on the scene and we -- on these things and we have not seen the full effect of that. paul: if we cannot rule out
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tightening, at least given the strength of the u.s. economy, you think we can at least rule out a recession? >> it all depends on when. smart economists will say recession, but it won't tell you exactly when they are saying recession. the economy doesn't go from 4.9% growth to zero overnight. it's not going to be this year. one of the big challenges for the fed and for the fomc is part of the fed is taking a look at that the economic forecast they put out not all that long ago and realize they will have to adjust that they are -- address that they are wrong. there were two pessimistic on inflation and not optimistic enough, if you will, on economic growth. so that will have to change, i think there is a lot of reason to still accept stauffer landing as a base case but if there is
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going to be something negative that happens, something that goes bust because of the pace of increases that we have seen recently in credit markets, that's probably going to happen next year. that's when the risk would perhaps be higher. but i can't time it right now and as long as employment stay strong, we will get employment numbers on friday, there we go merrily along. paul: chief economist and managing director at robinson stevens. thank you so much for joining us. you can also turn to your bloomberg for more on the upcoming fed decision. go to tliv . t live go and you can get commentary and analysis from our expert editors. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: the jury of the trial of sam bankman-fried is set to hear closing arguments on wednesday after the defendant entered a final cross-examination from prosecutors. bloomberg su keenan has been following this. another thrilling and invasive responses. su: this was all about where did the missing billion dollars go and over and over sam bankman-fried appeared to struggle with the question saying he didn't know. at one the prosecutors said, when you learn that the 8 billion had been spent, this was to test 2 million before the collapse, would've done anything to learn about who spent it. bankman-fried responded, i don't remember knowing anything about a particular employee. this was typical of the kind of responses he was giving. she continued with her questions, did you fire anyone for spending 8 billion customer
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deposits? his response was no. this was his third day on the witness stand before the jury had appeared a day earlier before the judge denied his attempt to present an argument that perhaps he acted in good faith by acting on bad legal advice that was not allowed to be used. in his testimony in this case is considered critical. it ended at noon, jurors will now hear closing arguments, likely on wednesday, and could enter into it by the end of the week. in terms of how the jury has reacted so far, bloomberg reporting indicates that the jury could be seen glancing at each other, almost nudging each other as bankman-fried evaded the questions. paul: bloomberg su keenan. more to come in a moment. this is bloomberg. ♪ you're probably not easily persuaded to switch mobile providers for your business. but what if we told you it's possible that comcast business mobile can save you up to 75% a year
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>> for adversaries, states or nonstate, this is all one fight. we need to respond in a way that recognizes that. if we peel off pieces of this package, they will see that, they will understand we are playing whack-a-mole while they cooperate increasingly and pose a greater threat to our security and that of our partners. when it comes to a cease-fire in this moment, you are right. that would simply consolidate what hamas has been able to do and allow it to remain where it is and potentially repeat what it did another day. that is not tolerable. shery: secretary of state antony blinken right there. i united nations resolution demands a sustained humanitarian
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truce in the israel-hamas conflict but they have been criticized by israelis and palestinians for what they say is an inadequate response to the war. let's bring in the general assembly president who joins me. i know you are just off your emergency session at the general assembly. you passed a resolution that is not legally binding. what more can be done at this juncture? >> first of well, resolutions of the general assembly are never legally binding. it is the resolution of the security council that are binding. however, it doesn't mean the resolution passed in the general assembly is without value. quite the opposite. that resolution is a declaration of the political will of the majority of state comprising the u.n. so it is a strong political
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statement of what the general assembly would like to see happen in gaza. with the hope that the authorities will follow the guidance provided. shery: do we need a security council resolution that will not be rejected and do you expect to see one soon? >> it is an interesting point that you have raised, because tomorrow the presidency of the general assembly shifts to a new country. china becomes the new president of the general assembly for the next month. and there is the possibility that during the chinese presidency, we might see another attempt at a resolution. we have to wait to see how that plays out. but that resolution, if it is passed, will be binding on all members. shery: what would you like to see their? >> we would like to see the humanitarian truce. we would like to save lives.
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we would like to see all the humanitarian workers, the hospitals, the u.n. and rwa workers, being in a position to provide the assistance and support that is needed in gaza. as you know, the electricity has been turned off. there is no water. there has been declining supplies of food. there have in fact been incursions into u.n. humanitarian installations of people looking for food. so civil authority is in decline in gaza because people are desperate. when they are desperate, they behave in desperate ways. so there needs to be a humanitarian cause. -- pause.
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there needs to be a corridor to allow the delivery, uninterrupted, of humanitarian aid and support to those in need. and of course, there needs to be as i have said before, hamas needs to release all of the detained individuals, civilians. shery: bloomberg learning -- is learning the u.s. and israel is -- are exploring the future of the gaza strip. some include multinational forces and another option perhaps, gaza turning to the united nations temporary oversight. do you think that is a feasible plan? what could that look like? >> i think it is feasible, because clearly, we cannot go back to the situation as it was before october 7.
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there has been a lot of hostility and a lot of violence, so it would not be prudent to leave the situation as it is. there would be a need to impose or put in some sort of force that separates the two factions, the two warring parties. otherwise, what you have is a continuation of the hostility. and i think the security council could, if it has the political will, achieve that. shery: in that sense of not going back to the status quo, there are calls for a cease-fire from the united nations but at the same time, the u.s. and we heard from secretary blinken, saying a cease-fire would lead to hamas rebuilding its forces. what is at stake? how dangerous and difficult is
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the situation? >> the situation is very dangerous. it is dangerous in a way that is unimaginable, because we have heard the views, i constructed k of underground tunnels. no one knows for sure what destructive elements have been hidden in those tunnels. therefore, the safety and security of the israeli security forces going in remains an open question. not just that, but the civilian population in gaza continues to be under threat. people have lost their homes. they have lost their livelihoods. they are hungry.
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they are exhausted. hospitals are low on medical supplies. we are looking at a potential catastrophe, even in terms of public health, because water is not available. so we are looking at the director general of the who, he said last week we are looking at the potential for a major public health catastrophe. shery: what is the potential of this escalating to the rest of the region? we heard from the united nations envoy from syria talk about potentially this spilling over into syria, given that we are seeing israeli strikes inside lebanon and syria. >> that is the big worry. that this could become a regional engagement, which is not at all good for international peace and security, and that has the potential to spread even further. one hopes that that does not take place, but only time will
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reveal. shery: the issue right now is that there are also criticisms about the relevance of the united nations as an international body for peace. we saw one member of the security council, russia, invade another member of the united nations, ukraine. how is that conflict going right now? is this also another distraction into an ongoing war that we have at this moment? >> there is no way that one could or should consider what is going on in gaza as a distraction. this is in fact, a reality. there is a body of opinion that suggests that international humanitarian law is being violated with impunity in gaza. again, that would be the subject of investigation on an independent basis.
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so we have to wait for those investigations. but the fact of the matter is, the united nations functions on the basis of certain values and principles that anchor the organization. all members subscribe to those values and principles. when they join. and they join freely. countries have to give consent to be bound by the charter. therefore, when there is breakage of the rules, the united nations cannot be blamed for that. that is a decision that individual countries will make based on their calculus of their interests. shery: by distraction, my point was mostly on the attention. we were so focused on what was happening in ukraine, and now there is another raging war in the middle east. the united nations has
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peacekeepers out there. it has resources. but how divided will this become when we have two ongoing conflicts at the moment? here in the u.s., congress is debating israel aid over ukraine aid. >> that is a valid point. the fact of the matter is, international peace and security has come under intense pressure in the last two or three years in particular. and that is one of the core pillars of the united nations. the u.n. was set up to avoid the scourge of war. and to a significant degree, it has been successful in doing that. thus far, we have not had a third world war. we have had regional wars, but we have not had a third world war. the reason is because of the strength of the multilateral system to which members subscribed.
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the situation in ukraine is ongoing. it represents a violation of international law and a violation of the charter. the situation in gaza represents a violation of international law and a violation of international human rights and humanitarian law. the u.n. it is the authority -- is the authority not so much to enforce, because the u.n. doesn't have enforcement capacity. the u.n. works on the basis of convincing countries to accept their responsibilities, and their obligations under the law, and that is what the resolution last week out of the general assembly sought to do. shery: at a time of great fragmentation, divisions, geopolitics, even domestic
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politics are so divisive at the moment. what is next for an international body like the united nations? given all the challenges we talked about right now. >> you must bear in mind that the u.n. has a broad agenda of work with international peace and security being one component. the u.n. also is active in promoting sustainable development, and i'm sure you would be familiar with the agenda 2030 and the sustainable development goals. that was the anchor, the centerpiece of high level work this year in september. and also, the promotion and protection of human rights. this year in november we will celebrate the 75th anniversary of the universal declaration on human rights. this is the magna carta of human rights, at a time when human rights as well is increasingly under pressure across the world.
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so we have to reaffirm and reassert those values and principles, because they respect human dignity. they respect inequality, that all men and women are born equally in rights. they have all the rights they need and it is not acceptable for those rights to be violated or abrogated by any authority. so the u.n. has a broad agenda. we are working on other issues while we are working on peace and security, of course. peace and security now becomes a major priority because of course, people are losing their lives. there is a lot of pain and suffering and anguish in gaza, and in ukraine, let us not forget, but they are not the only places. it is happening in central africa. it is happening in yemen. there are many spots in the world where international peace and security is under threat, and
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the u.n. has an obligation and is working to bring those conflicts to an end as early as possible. shery: thank you for bringing those issues and putting them into perspective. president of the u.n. general assembly dennis france has joining us -- francis joining us. tv is their function to watch past interviews and watch live. dive into the securities are bloomberg functions we talk about and become part of the conversation. check it out at tv . this is bloomberg. ♪
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paul: the u.s. dollars winning streak looks to be running out of steam as morgan stanley and national australia bank caution bets on the greenback are becoming stretched. let's bring in a rates reporter michael. we have yields rising, knocking on the door of 5%, fed likely to be on hold tomorrow. how much longer can the dollar rally endure? >> it could pull back as early as tomorrow our time, after the fed, if they don't deliver a hawkish hold and they need that.
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they fish -- finish on the line that further hikes might be necessary to maintain individual and that stuff. that is diluted in some part. that will shift yields lower, and the dollar will feel the pinch immediately. for now, since september, the meeting in 2021, the 10 year bond yields added 50 basis points. a lot of that is attributed, the fed is talking about that and that is true but whatever it is, that is lifting the curve and it is dampening, doing the heavy lifting for the fed. it is dampening consumer power. it is tightening financial conditions. we may see a hold tomorrow but in terms of the dollar, i think
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we aren't at a watershed moment, probably a watercooler moment where we might see some sort of pull back. everything that is good going for the dollar is baked in. the commentary we know in that story today is to the effect that it is still getting good news but the trade is not essentially crowded. it is closer to stretched. it would take more good news to send it to the next level and i don't think we will get that in the short term. shery: that will provide some relief for the japanese yen but i wonder what the in the sand is, if we have the fomc coming out with higher for longer and whether the boj will be forced, because of the weakness of its currency, to turn a bit more hawkish. what are your thoughts?
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michael: yesterday, they were quick to dispel any sort of tweaking of the yield curve control. that does not speak to monetary policy savings. he labeled that point. that is a fair call. i don't think we are going to hear a lot them in terms of policy rate change until early next year. there seems to be, they harp on wages and the next wage review is not until results are out in april. we will have to bide our time until then. i think the yield curve control, the tweak yesterday was more of a compromise. there seems to be dissension in the bank of japan board room as to how to handle this. i think it was piecemeal. the market was underwhelmed. we are knocking on a 151 hi.
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there are option barriers just above at 152. as the liquidity dries up before the fed tonight, i think the market will take that out. they might see a new hybrid before the fed. -- a new high but before the fed. shery: michael wilson with the latest. here are political headlines we are watching. the white house says president biden and xi jinping will meet in san francisco next month on the sidelines of the aipac summit. the white house confirmed the sit down with reporters who had sought an official announcement. leaders are expected to discuss the economy, technology, and geopolitical issues like taiwan. new zealand's incoming prime minister is optimistic a new government could be formed by next week. he said talks with other parties were advancing and progress has been made. he is believed to be in talks
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with two of the parties to form a parliamentary majority after his national party won a 9% of the vote last month. final results of the general election are due this friday. paul: let's take a look at what is happening in the bond space at the moment. we are seeing yields on the aussie bonds moving higher, the 10 year now just below the 5% level. modest declines for kiwi bonds as new zealand, getting close to finding out the exact composition of the new government. we have a lot of central bank decisions coming up, not just this week but also next. australia's rba expected to lift rates to a 12 year high tuesday after inflation in the third quarter came in harder than expected. consumer prices driven by factors that are beyond the central banks control. our economics reporter joins us in sydney.
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what are the big drivers of inflation? >> the latest data showed the crisis was driven by housing, rent, petrol which is geopolitics, and premiums which have gone up because of climate change. australia has seen whether events -- extreme weather events and housing prices have been going through the roof. we haven't been building enough homes and we are seeing a huge influx of people from overseas, which is a government policy. so these are not factors that rba can control, but it is interest rates. paul: the inflationary factors make up a small proportion of the basket but responsible for an outsized impact. does this mean on the balance of probability, we won't get a rate increase? >> if the rba doesn't want to raise interest rates, they can use this as an argument but if
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you want inflation to come back to a 2%, you have a blunt tool, which the governor has spoken about. you have been talking about your determination to control inflation, so if you do not act on higher prices, on data showing this, it will look like just talk and no action. if they want people to believe that they are determined to bring inflation down, they will have to raise interest rates. paul: plenty more ahead on daybreak. this is bloomberg. ♪
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available now in siding colors, styles and textures. curated by joanna gaines. shery: take a look at how some stocks are moving after hours. downside especially for the likes of anb, down 0.3% after giving lackluster revenue forecast. we work plunging after the wall street journal reported it is planning to file for bankruptcy as early as next week. pay, also down -- paycom also down, reporting third-quarter revenue that missed estimates. young china down, recording third-quarter sales that fell short of estimates. the australia open is next. this is bloomberg.
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it's an amazing thing when you show generosity of spirit to someone. and you want people to be saved and to have a better life, then you don't stop. we have been able to reach over 100 million people impacted and affected, and at risk of hiv. the rocket fund takes all of the work that we're doing, all over the world, and looks at the most effective ways, to get resources to them, to get services to them. the idea that we have saved five million people's lives, it's overwhelming. it's everything.
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