♪ guy: the bank of england today left rates on hold. but, it pushed back very strongly on the idea that we are going to be seen rate cuts any soon. despite that, the market continues to push the idea of rate cuts. got that one the wrong way around. i talked to the governor of the bank of england about this. i wondered if the markets are getting the wrong message. take a listen. >> the message we are giving is our job is to get inflation down to the 2% target.

we made a lot of progress this year and i believe we will make more progress but we still have a long way to go. we think policy is having a restrictive effect at the moment. i'm afraid we are going to have to maintain this stance for what we describe as an extended period of time. guy: what is an extended period of time? is that a year? andrew: what i described in the report, we took two approaches. one is to take the market curve as it was a week or so ago. that delivers inflation coming back to target on this two-year horizon. we also took a constant rate path, just maintaining it throughout the next three years at the current rate. that brings it back a little. there is not much between them. so, the key point here is we are going to have to maintain this stance to be absolutely assured that inflation is coming back to 2%.

guy: the markets have cuts priced into it, albeit a week ago. that gets you to a situation where you have inflation within two years. it significantly reduces the risk of enter -- of a recession. isn't that the most probable outcome? pricing in one cut? andrew: neither of those two paths had a recession in them. they had subdued growth. guy: a reduced risk of recession? andrew: slightly reduced. it was down 25 basis points. which if you averaged out, there is not much. that supports the story we are saying, which is we will have to maintain this stance for an extended period. guy: why did you feel you need to read a rate that so strongly. the language is a little more

hawkish. for two reasons -- andrew: for two reasons, we see the risk of inflation as being on the upside at the moment. it's important for that message not to get lost. there are several reasons we think risks are on the upside but they are still on the upside. second, if you don't mind me saying, it's because everybody started to ask a question about cuts. in a way, we have to lean against them and say no, we have to maintain restrictive policy. guy: the market has started to price cuts. you are saying you need to leaning on that? andrew: i'm not leaning in against the curve that we use. there was not a lot of difference. the constant throughout and the market then. guy: wouldn't you want to lean in on that? andrew: if the market has taken from what we have published today, a view that we are leaning toward more cuts, i'm afraid i won't lean against

that, yes. guy: in terms of the other message you may be giving today, and that might be a broader message, inflation expectations have become more de-anchored here than maybe elsewhere. is there, therefore, a reason, a need to reiterate that restrictive policy will be with us for longer, in order to make sure the policy re-anchors back to where you would like it to be. andrew: i don't think inflation expectations have become d anchored. i think we are all having to give variants of these messages. because, yes, we have to see inflation come down. you are right in highlighting their was an important link between today's inflation, the expectations and what inflation will be in the future. guy: is the pain worth the game?

-- gain? yes, we are going to re-anchor a policy but it's going to be worth it. andrew: i do strongly believe that. i do say often, and it is important to say, if we continue in a situation where inflation is above target, that's going to be a worse outcome. guy: do you think we are heading for an environment where rates are higher for longer? let's talk about the curve. the curve, since the last meeting, has steepened significantly at the long end. why do you think that is? jay powell has talked about premium, the deficit pricing and you talked about neutral rate. it can be sticky. why do you think that has happened? what message is the long end of

the curve sending? >> i think there are one of two things. the higher for longer message has been absorbed over this period that you are describing. i think it is a fair point to start. i do think the market has absorbed this message and it has been reflected in curves. what i would say is there is a very large global element. and interestingly, if you look at the u.k. and the euro area together in terms of curve movements, pretty similar sorts of numbers, the u.s. is quite a lot bigger. guy: there is a term premium in there. is there a danger that the u.s. curve stays elevated and we end up importing tighter monetary conditions as a result of that,

when the economy may not be there. is this a gravitational effect between treasuries, yields and bonds and we may end up, because of that story, being too tight here? >> we have to factor that into our forecast. we will do that. that is why we are partly conditioned on a market curve. it gives us the ability to do that. we will obviously do that and adjust our judgment accordingly. guy: will there be a way of leaning in on that? can you adjust twist to alter the shape of the curve to deal with that imported financial condition? andrew: we've taken a strong position that we are not running qt to move the curve around. it would take a lot to move me from that position. i think, on the whole, -- my mom

used to say you would be too clever by half. guy: the governor of the bank of england, andrew bailey, speaking to me earlier today after the banks rate decision. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> from the heart of where innovation, power and money collide, this is bloomberg technology. with caroline hyde and eric ludlow.

>> i am caroline hyde. >> imf ludlow. this is bloomberg technology. >> coming up, full earnings coverage i had. qualcomm is providing an upbeat forecast. >> sticking with smartphones, we will push ahead to earnings from apple, which are due to come out after the bell today. >> we will have the latest in the trial of sam freed. let's check in on the markets and the feel-good music after the federal reserve and the feeling the fed is done with the fast pace of rate hikes. we are up five straight days on the nasdaq 100. the best winning straight -- streak since last year. s&p 500 having its best day since august. european stocks pushed higher. so too did asia. we are having our best day in months. up 1.6% on the country index.

i'm looking at the u.s. 30 year. this as we see the desire to be buying into bond markets. yields are falling. we are down some nine basis points on the longer end. we were down earlier on. this is an interesting one. the dollar is down because we are not anticipating such hawkish fed. but so is bitcoin. there is some pulling away from this risk asset at the moment. above the $34,000 level but there is a little caution in that particular space. what are you looking at in the micro? ed: there are many technology offerings to passover. the first is peloton. they gave a guidance for revenue for the rest of the year. they were having trouble converting free users of their app into paid subscriber. they were down after earnings hit. they are up significantly at 11%.

the market clearly buying it. palantir upgrading its profit outlook for the four year, slightly upgrading its expectations. peloton is a story we have hit all year long. fourth straight quarter of profit, also up 18%. after that, we get apple. we know what is coming. fourth straight quarter of sales declined. it has been over two decades since apple had a slump like that. the main thing i am looking at right now is qualcomm. 9.1 to $9.9 billion for forecasted revenue. a big range. at the midpoint of the range, you are well above expectations. it signals things are recovering in the smartphone market. let's get more on that story. that is the guidance, what do you read into that about the

smartphone market globally? >> coming into the quarter, it was clear the smartphone market had hit its bottom. customers had been clearing out for a few weeks. what was not clear was what to expect in terms of the speed and size of the market snapback. especially in china, which was holding back the start of the company for qualcomm. there was anxiety around if they would have to brace for another disappointment. it was a sigh of relief. a couple of data points was the 25% sequential revenue growth from the chinese. and then confirming that they will keep the majority share at samsung 24 launch. caroline: all of this is at a time were christiane armand is trying to divert away from the mobile space. how is that working and bearing fruit when you are looking at nick did devices? -- connected devices?

>> the pc is an option in terms of straight estimates. the numbers right now don't anticipate much revenue coming from this business. they don't expect pc revenue to start contributing significantly until 2025. the discussion around pc is more related to adding to the sentiment around this rather than the fundamentals. the good thing is if they have any success, no matter the size, it will all be upside on the current numbers. ed: i want to dig into some analysis you published last night. that is about china. the landscape for smartphones in china has changed in terms of where the chips are coming from. and also planning for the future. based on what qualcomm told us, what do you read into the chinese market? >> it was the one thing that was dragging back the recovery. there is good signs that the

chinese are now pulling in and building. that is good for qualcomm. another factor is the uncertainty about possibly getting a share. we still have to wait and see how this plays out. but right now, with them getting apple back and getting a lot more content, as long as this market keeps coming back, it will be a double tailed end for qualcomm. caroline: perfect segue to our next discussion. you mentioned -- he mentioned apple and huawei. here to tell us what to expect is mark gurman. a lot of people are anticipating china will play a big role in the numbers. >> i want to replay something he said when he started the discussion. he noted that the qualcomm expectation for sales from chinese handset makers are way up.

a headline crossed that said chinese phone maker sales connected to qualcomm are anticipated to be upper third in the current quarter -- up a third in the current quarter. that is good news for qualcomm and not good news for apple to answer your question. qualcomm makes a lot of the cpus and chips that go into android phones. a lot of the ones developed by chinese manufacturers. apple makes their own chips. if qualcomm sales are going way up in china, something has to give, right? that answers your question i think about what is going on in apple and china. we may be in for a dip there. qualcomm is taking that share from somewhere, right? that is something to look out for for sure. ed: the financials backward looking have just gone and you listen to what they will say about the future, the iphone 15 went on sale september 22.

that gives about nine days of sales. in that time, they have raised services prices. we have all of those details on the next generation. what moves the needle outside of iphones toward the end of the year and into 2024? >> i think it is wearables and stocking stuffers like the lower end apple watches. i think that will result in a lot of momentum. obviously, the iphone 15 pro is going to do exceptionally well. apple has a pretty easy comp to the iphone 15. this is a redesigned phone, that new material. that's what sells consumers. the good news for apple is it does not seem they have any major production hiccups this time around. last year, you had a minor iphone update with the iphone 14. you had major shipment delays and constraints. you should see nice growth on

the iphone, despite this situation potentially occurring in china. i'm hoping for positivity for sure on the iphone. if you look at wall street expectations for the previous quarter, the iphone is the only business from apple that we are expecting growth in. the other two, this is surprising, is greater china. wall street is anticipating $2 billion of growth in the china business, going from $15 billion in change to $17 billion in the china region. it appears even if the iphone slows down in china, they will make up for the iphone sales in other regions and with other products. the apple watch is certainly growing in popularity in china. it has become a big deal there. even the mac, these higher priced more luxurious macs are becoming bigger sellers in china. no matter what is happening to the iphone, i think based on

what wall street is saying, they will make up for it. caroline: thank you, mark gurman. coming up, the canadian shopify is beating estimates for the third quarter shares. a conversation with the resident, harley finkelstein, is coming up next. this is bloomberg technology. ♪

thanks to avalara, we can calculate sales tax automatically. avalarahhhhhh what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh business license guidance? ahhhhhh -cross-border sales? -ahhhhhh -item classification? -ahhhhhh does it connect with acc...? ahhhhhh ahhhhhh ahhhhhh

caroline: discipline and cost-cutting are some of the factors that help shopify see -- revenue and earnings, they beat estimates and then some. joining us now on how the strategy is playing out, harley finkelstein, president of shopify. investors love the numbers today. shares have rallied hard. how sustainable is that level of discipline and showing growth into the next fiscal quarter?

harley: thanks for having me on the show. we have a deliberate vision to balance financial discipline prayed we are delivering top end growth and profitability. q3, we were of 22% prayed revenue was up 25% to $1.7 billion. we have a cash flow north of 270 million dollars. with every quarter ticking up, q4 is expected to keep this trend going. one of the things i don't think is getting covered but is exciting to us is more of the largest and most important brands on the planet are joining shopify like ted baker and quicksilver and billabong. it is great for us. it's a great story and a story of balancing growth and profitability simultaneously. the company is more focused on the main quest and things that are most important. ed: how much of that focus is

into the outlook? there is an accusation out there from some on the street that you guys were a little bit conservative with the outlook and maybe you could do more. harley: i think we are, as a company, firing on all cylinders. horizontally and vertically. on the vertical side, shopify is known to be the entrepreneurship company, where millions of small businesses start to grow businesses. we have enterprise commerce where some of the largest companies, like spanks and black & decker all come into shopify as well. one of the metrics we think a lot about is our product attach rate. that is a proxy for the usage of our products and platform. that is over 3%. whether it is things like capital or shipping or payments or even audiences, we like that. we like being the center of the business for the stores.

caroline: i'm interested in how you are thinking about monetization going forward, harley. harley: monetization is something that we, certainly in the last 1.5 years, have been thinking about. i've been at shopify for almost one third of my life, almost 14 years and we have never changed pricing. you made our first change last year. we increased by 33% and saw very little pushback trade that suggests to us that the value to cost ratio of shopify is so far on the side of value. as we think about pricing changing across other products, we want to be deliberate about it but we believe we have an opportunity to increase pricing in the future. ed: what's the ai story for shopify? harley: i think we are uniquely positioned to harness the power of ai. we think that small business and entrepreneurs will business -- benefit from these tools.

but our eight i -- ai product is designed specifically for commerce and retail. it's not just one feature or one product. we have embedded it across all of our features and workflows so more people can start businesses and more people can be more successful and we are finding it to be valuable. they spend more time making their product and less time doing administrative tasks, which ai is really good at. ed: harley finkelstein, president of shopify. always great to catch up. palantir shares really jumping, on track to their biggest gain since may of this year. the story, a raised profit guidance for 2023, they are saying adjusted income will be $670 million. the story, all about artificial intelligence. they were looking for a $577 million of net income.

alex talking up the ai story. he has been in london for the ai summit that is underway. from san francisco and new york city, this is "bloomberg technology." ♪ you want to be able to provide your child

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with the tools or resources they need. with reliable internet at home, through the internet essentials program, the world opened up. fellas, fellas. that's how my son was able to find the hidden genius project. we wanted to give y'all the necessary skills to compete with the future. kevin's now part of this next generation of young people who feel they can thrive. ♪ ♪

ashley longest streak of -- the longest streak of wins since july. the bigger england keeping rates unchanged and talking down the respect of further cuts.

we just heard our interview with the bank of england governor, this is what the ftse 100 looks like. up on the day. the 10 year yields, softer a little bit. one more day in the week. caroline: let's check on the u.s. the federal reserve looking like it is done with his hawkish view. i am shining a light on what is happening with peloton. only with five dollars per share price point. 12% rally when we had been sinking hard. they managed to beat their fiscal quarter when it comes to revenue. there was a slightly weak look ahead terms of signaling what bernstein is saying, basically zero growth.

there is a very narrative there. the birth quarter margins were particularly strong. nevertheless, a particular analyst downgrading the stock to a price target of five dollars versus eight dollars and goes from a hold to a buy. bitcoin is under pressure, even with the dollar weaker. ed: we are watching airbnb, bringing in more with natalie. looking at shares down more than 3%. this is the story of the world economy catching up with airbnb a little bit in terms of the outlook they gave us. natalie: yes. in their fourth outlook statement, they mention mentioned this early volatility in the quarter. they mentioned it was hard to pinpoint what it was but they pointed to economic factors and geopolitical tensions. caroline: we sit in new york at

what has been interesting is the regulatory pressure airbnb is coming under. did they speak to that noted, how much the business model is being upended? natalie: their take is that new york is like a smaller market right now. around 1% of their revenue. their take is that over 80% of their top markets have been regulated. they are still confident with their business model, with supply, still a double-digit rate. caroline: what was interesting about airbnb and their leadership is they did not have to make this painful announcements of job cuts. they managed to stay lean. are they going to have to think about that more with macroeconomic headwinds, with geopolitical tensions in the u.s.? natalie: the rating is at the highest number right now. a lot are looking for long-term growth catalysts.

this is why they are coming up with product updates to try to make the platform more reliable, getting hosts with them and continue booking with them. ed: the pandemic era, the behavior of consumers has changed. stays of 28 days or more in focus. next week we think we are going to get new products. what is the future look like for airbnb? natalie: the ceo says their lengthy condition for a lot of new services coming out, whether it is using ai is using ai as a better matching service or -- all of these updates are to telecasts and hosts to keep the booking and using their platforms. caroline: we will keep an eye on how those turn out. we have more on earnings. etsy came out. we want to bring in --

we spoke with the president of shopify feeling very resilient about where the consumer is, managing to show growth. why is etsy not managing to nick that strength? -- minnick that strength? >> we are seeing consumer spending slowdown. consumers are making trade-offs so it is more about finding what you want. we saw good results out of amazon's and we cannot say consumer is down everywhere. with etsy, gigabyte gift giving, you think about what you can get that is unique. etsy offers so much more than that that there is not awareness for. it is about them continuing to build awareness that is going to get more buyers onto the platform. they saw a real nice increase in sellers so people want to sell etsy. small businesses want to sell. we need to see more buyer growth, see buyers from etsy,

not just the gifts. ed: i was reading your outlook last night and one thing you talk about is something caroline and i have discussed with every commerce company in the world which is personalization. why will that help them address the issues you just outlined? >> when you go online, you have an endless store. the list goes on and on forever. the ability to personalize for any company and give the consumer more of what they want than just everything is going to help growth conversion. online conversion is low single digits. people browse online more than they buy and the ability to personalize, to cater to their needs is going to drive that conversion higher. caroline: i am amazed people don't realize the breadth of things you can get on etsy.

taylor swift and beyonce, getting your glitter ahead of time, everyone was turning to etsy. what do you want to see from leadership here to market themselves? poonam: they need to invest in marketing. think about the home quite a gory -- the home category. they took a pause after the pandemic but not their thinking can i upgrade something in my home? etsy sells a lot but that is not where you go for your home stuff right now, you go to wayfair for amazon or target. caroline: interesting that etsy is saying shoppers are focused more on essentials. we look at the latest on the trial of the sam bankman-fried. jurors might be living -- jurors are beginning deliberation

today. we will talk to kristin smith about the overall impact. ed: paypal is a mover to the upside. this is the first earnings alex is overseeing as a ceo. announcing a new cfo, jim and miller, who joins them. they also received a subpoena relating to their work related to stablecoin and they say they are compliant with the sec. shares are up almost 5%. this is "bloomberg technology." ♪

ed: with the ftx trial wrapped

up, jurors are beginning deliberation on sam bankman-fried's fate today. what does it mean to the crypto industry and sam bankman-fried? let's bring in kristin smith, ceo of the lock chain association. the jury is deliberating, the closing argument from sentiment freed's attorney -- sam bankman-fried's attorney is that he has been painted as a villain. there were six committees were he was given a choice, tell the truth or double down. the prosecution says he doubled down. what do you make of that? kristin: the evidence is compelling. it seemed every time they got in trouble, he was like a gambler and doubled down again. i probably he was getting that money from customer funds. very interesting and dramatic trial. i am cris to see what verdict

the jury returns. some speculate that could happen as soon as today. from the crypto industry perspective, we are eager to see this chapter closed. we feel like people are conflating the entire industry with one man and one company when this is a story about a crook, not about crypto. certainly an entertaining trial, something they will make movies on. ed: this is an innocent until proven guilty situation, it is a jury trial. has this series them damaging to the goals of the blockchain association? you want the underlying technology that supports crypto to be mainstream globally. kristin: absolutely. we are trying to get public policy makers in washington to understand the technology so we can get regulatory framework in place.

without question, this trial has been damaging to the industry. in the past year since these events went down, we have seen leaders from across the crypto industry from other companies. we have seen entrepreneurs, individual members of the community. they have taken an interest in working in washington and talking with policymakers. what used to be sam bankman-fried going around and taking up a lot of time, that has been replaced with a broader more diverse set of individuals in the crypto ecosystem and those that have the right values and building things in the power of decentralization and not just here to make a bunch of money to give it away. caroline: some of the forces speaking to regulators, one might be at paypal. we understand the sec is looking into their view on stablecoins.

how are you saying that discussion bear out at the moment? -- seeing that discussion bear out? what are the other people in the room saying? kristin: that is another interesting question. we don't know a lot of what sec is asking about the stablecoin business. it is a little bit unclear. typically the sec does not have jurisdiction over stablecoins because stablecoins are not securities. what we are seeing is a lot of discussion on capitol hill about what is the right regulatory framework. in the trump administration and the biden administration, we had reports from the president's working group that recommended regulatory framework. we saw patrick mchenry pass a bill through his committee that would provide framework for stablecoins. i think there is a chance before the end of this year that we do see stablecoin legislation

moving forward. this is an issue that everyone agrees needs to be addressed. it is not the goal of kinsler to regulate stablecoin. they are not securities. caroline: he will debase that. the protections bureau overlooking these movements from big companies toward accessing crypto at large by a consumer base. what about the etf conversation? that has been driving bitcoin. are we anticipating as soon as the end of this year we will get a bitcoin etf? how much do you think that will be liked or loathed? kristin: we are already starting to see some price action in the markets on anticipation of a bitcoin etf. we had a very important moment over the summer where the sec lost a case that it acted in a capricious manner by not moving forward with a spot bitcoin etf.

thanks to grayscale for the hard work they put into getting that ruling. we have multiple applications. these have deadlines where the sec has a deadline -- has an opportunity to extend them. most of these are coming up in january so i think it is highly likely we will get a bitcoin spot -- a spot bitcoin etf approved. there are a lot of investors eager to access exposure to a bitcoin through their typical brokerage platform. ed: there was one tangible example out of london. hsbc, one of the biggest banks in the world using distributed ledgers to prove that took rising ownership of gold works. how does that make you feel? kristin: i did not see that story but another people looking to figure out how can we tie real-world assets to blockchain's. they can be an efficient way for

tracking information. the key becomes how can you connect that additional asset to the real-world asset. there are people exploring this place and there are a lot of opportunities for upgrading the infrastructure and tracking a lot of things we do in the traditional investment space. caroline: kristin smith, thank you so much for joining us. ed, you are sticking with crypto. ed: sentiment around coinbase which is rising with a debut of a bitcoin etf appearing imminent. this has been fueling expectations for widespread increase in demand and pumping some investors to disregard the on saturday -- disregarded the uncertainty about the biggest broker. coming up, the u.k. summit on ai safety is wrapping up. we will break it down and review

the details. mr. musk is in london town. this is "bloomberg technology." ♪

ed: time for talking tech. intuit is winding down meant and pushing users to ship to credit,, a similar service.

mint will no longer be available at the start of 2024 as product features are being moved within credit karma. google's vice president of the company's ai efforts. disputed suggestions the company rushed to release its ai chatbot earlier this year in order to beat microsoft's offering. u.k. summit on ai safety is wrapping up with leaders debating on how much to focus on the supposed existential risks of ai. highlighting those broader tensions in the tech community as lawmakers propose regulation and safeguards. rishi sunak will be leading talks on the final day of the summit, the conversation with elon musk later today. caroline: let's get more from the ai summit. market joins us from london.

there has been this tension about threats of ai versus long-term and many are trying to say it is not about the risks, it is about the models in development and where they go the next year. what are some of the takeaways from the summit? mark: one of the major takeaways yesterday was the speech from the u.s. commerce secretary followed by the vice minister from china, agreeing on broader terms around these catastrophic harms. at least that is symbolic and diplomatic victory for the u.k. and for the summit, the fact they could bring together the u.s. and china where they have disparate views on geopolitics involved with ai and the u.s. has talked about china development as being a military threat. caroline: we are going to debate

more about who was there and whether or not they were being mobbed or not. it seems there is some talk that elon musk held court with delegates. other times, sitting and listening and taking in discussions around ai and the control of ai. how has the corporate side of the conversation gone? mark: it is funny you mission elon musk. the u.k. has put him out as an interesting figurehead and be shining big ceo they have got. certainly his companies involve artificial intelligence, but he is not one of the leaders building one of these large language models. the benefit here is they get fillon -- the elon halo attached to that and a lot of attention and the other side is the tweet he put out, this cartoon that i

only attributed as criticism of the conference itself. ed: musk tweaking a meme, truck. -- shock. this evening with rishi sunak, talk us through what we are expecting. mark: the existential risk, one of the notable signatories on the letter this year slowing down the investment. one of the conversations happening on the fringes, met has madea this claim and we had an interview with google's chief scientist that there is this regulatory capture, the big companies are saying regulate us and only us so smaller companies

cannot compete. i am sure elon musk will have an opinion on that. there is some regulatory capture involved. caroline: i am sure you will be tuning in in a little bit. ed: we have a viral social media post, star link has its cash flow breakeven according to elon musk. he posted the financial update to his social media platforms. he also shares the -- that star link has launched a majority of all the satellites cumulatively from earth by next year. this shows the progress they have made. investors want to know if they are going to make money, probably so. will they spin it off in an ipo? caroline: still the most valuable company out there? ed: still the most valuable,

edging above $150 billion which is crazy. caroline: that does it for this edition of "bloomberg technology ." ed: we have the podcast where ever you get your podcasts but also on spotify. this is bloomberg. ♪ if you're trying to get a view of the whole organizational financial health and you're trying to do that through multiple systems, that makes it very, very cumbersome. ♪ it's not just tech, it's not just people. it's how they work together to provide that experience to the customer. as a finance organization that is what you want to do. ♪

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>> welcome to bloomberg markets, i am a matt miller. we have an equity rally, s&p 500 hitting a session high, up 1.5%. the best day since may. the best four day rally we have seen in january of this year. off the races in stocks. we see the bloomberg u.s. dollar index coming down about