>> welcome to bloomberg markets, i am a matt miller. we have an equity rally, s&p 500 hitting a session high, up 1.5%. the best day since may. the best four day rally we have seen in january of this year. off the races in stocks. we see the bloomberg u.s. dollar index coming down about .5%

10-year gilts come down today. i saw at one point at 4.62. you are year gain a little bit. to five-year is unchanged. the 10 year is still down at 4.6966 and the three year down at 4.8592. this as yesterday jerome powell signaled that the federal reserve is done with rate cuts because high interest rates have held tighten financial conditions. the problem is if we see these drop, that will turn around. when it comes to the drop in yields, bloomberg opinions and bill dudley say chair fed powell is almost caught in a no win situation. >> he feels confident the fed has done a lot.

the market is taking away the notion that he thinks he is done. the one problem the chairman has is by talking to the markets in a supportive way, stocks rally, bond yields fall, that is listening financial conditions and removing some of the restraint greeting some impetus for not tightening further. matt: andrea is a portfolio manager at loomis sayles and joins us to talk about what we are watching. this morning it was pretty stark. the drop in yields, the rise in price. have we hit the peak in yields? andrea: i don't know if we have hit peak yields, 5% seems to be around number two assume. i think this reassurance risk that has been on the horizon that has been a concern for

everyone has been alleviated. that has shifted us from the pain of a steepener to help bit more droid -- a little more joy. matt: what you think about the fed's fight against inflation? we are still far from the 2% target by some measures. you can massage the indexes anywhere you want and come up with a number that is lower. are they there? andrea: i think what we are seeing in addition to uncertainty around inflation is expectations are mediating on the verge of seeing some downward trajectory. what is most important and what chair powell hit upon is the financial tightening conditions we are seeing again to bite in the market. mortgage rates up about 8%, auto loan interest rates curtailing

the ability of consumers to purchase. that is what i think he is trying to avoid, walking that line of how much tightening is too much. we need to have some optionality in our future of the retightened more in months to come? right now it is a wait-and-see moment. matt: we have seen big names voice concerns. jack miller say he was long on the two-year because of those concerns. is that the right trade? andrea: i think the front end of the curve is attractive. when you side at the levels we saw a week ago, those individuals buying into that are feeling joy today. i do think this is likely to be a traitor -- trader's market because there is uncertainty around our be at the end of the hiking cycle.

is there one or two more that might have to happen and are there any cuts that need to be pressed out -- priced out? we are closer toward the end of the hiking but are we closer to cutting? unlikely. matt: christian this morning was telling me it is hard to define any direction. you will see gaps up and down, do you agree with that perspective? andrea: absolutely. rate volatility is here to stay. 20 basis point move days, that might be what we have to get use to in fixed income investing which is something we have not had for the past 40 years. matt: how much does deficit spending and the gigantic debt by the u.s. and ancestor? i have had some people tell me

it is unbelievable we will have $900 billion in interest rate servicing costs next year. others have said we have been doing this deficit spending since reagan and it is no big deal. andrea: it is a big deal and it should be at the forefront of everyone's processing. the issuance needed out of our own government is at unprecedented rates. that will continue to cause a crowding out effect. the longer-term implications of that we have not seen across other asset classes. matt: is the front end your favorite part of the curve? andrea: we still like the belly of the curve. we like the 10 year spot. we have seen a tremendous amount of rally there. this is open up the door again to see are we going to get every liver and continuation of the dollar weakness trade that was well underway for the first half

of this year. that could be an exciting moment for other assets. could we see an opportunity in those spaces again? matt: we have the jobs report on fighter and adding it amends not. he was for number is over 200,000 -- the whisper number is over 200,000. what do you think? andrea: it is in or around there. we will see a rally in the writz market. could we touch 450 in the 10 year? there is a chance for that but we might be creating a new range and that range is very large. 50 basis points large. matt: next week we see a slew of fed speakers resume. are they going to talk about how traits are doing their jobs and we are doing a passive tightening -- and we are seeing a passive tightening?

is that the way forward for the fed the next six months to a year? andrea: a lot of the tightening has had its bite with consumers with how we are spending. to see that unwind in three days , i think that will be the chorus out of many different fed speakers. the long and variable lags are still long and variable. we have to wait and see in the months to come the impact they have had for the next quarter or next six months. even these generations we are seeing in the market, it is a traitor -- a trader's market and that will cause a pause around how people are spending. matt: thank you so much for joining us. really appreciate your insight. up next, leon kalvaria joins us to discuss the state of m&a. it has been slow.

expectations for maybe a brighter 2024. this is bloomberg. ♪ (sfx: stone wheel crafting) ♪

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>> deals come in multiples and usually there is more leverage. an opportunity to added value is massive. as our family owned businesses. the exit opportunities are robust. deal volumes are down. matt: that was luke's hartsfield speaking to us about how he

feels -- how he views the deals market with interest rates with sign but still relatively high. and resident bankers are looking for steady ground. joining us as one of the senior dealmakers, leon kalvaria as well as our reporter sonali basak. thank you for joining us. doug adams is the head of the -- business and he is optimistic about 2024 and he says there is a pipeline of companies. m&a, do think it is going to come back? leon: i think he is right to be optimistic because there are transactions in the backlog but we have to see some level of stability. the aftermarket performance was

not great, 70% of them are trading below the issue price. we are going to need to see leveling off of interest rates which hopefully are very close right now. really market equity risk capital coming back in the market because they want to see performance. sonali: investors that bought into those ipo's, aren't they feeling sore right now? a lot of these deals had retail interest on day one, how do you get investors back into this next class excited about 2024? leon: investors are going to have to feel the pricing is attractive. if you look at the deals, they all traded up in the first day and subsequent performance was less than perfect. they will look at each of these companies and feel that the values are there for 2, 3, four

years out and they will look at companies that are high-quality, real margins, real profitability and real -- in terms of a competitive position. sonali: there is equity and then debt and then the debt markets were a little more successful. high-yield slowly coming back to issuance but higher for longer. does this continue into next year when people get more upset about economic conditions? leon: i think so. he looked at the fed, they pause but with an indication they could raise down the road. i think our chairman is going to be careful making sure he does not end up in a paul volcker situation. i think it is higher for longer and i think expectations of fed rate cuts early next year are slowly going out the window. this is going to continue for a

while. going back to your m&a conversation, the costs are high even for investment-grade companies that have got high-quality balance sheets. they have to factor in how long they can continue to finance that way. number two, do the transactions make economic sense in that context. the equity markets are still trading at robust pes and multiples. they are not that far from their high. people want to see valuations that make sense. a backlog in and in is pretty decent -- in m&a is pretty decent but people are announcing for political reasons and geopolitical reasons which makes people uncomfortable. last but not least, the ftc because the regulatory side is important if you have a transaction that sits hung up

for one or two years. matt: are they being too aggressive? they have been losing some appeals. lately. leon: microsoft just close their transaction. they have taken an aggressive stance at the time will tell how long they want to keep it up. companies are quite cautious and historically they would have relied on very strong legal advice on what works and what doesn't work. now it is not just legal advice but taking into account the overall environment. sonali: beyond those big-ticket corporate deals, you are seeing some come through. why the equity? how much trouble are they in? ucd performance within muted. his uc -- you see the performance within muted. is there pain under the surface? leon: i am not seeing pain.

portfolio companies got higher interest rates so they have to take that into account. private equity has been investing pretty aggressively in terms of taking companies private. remember, the hallmark of private equity is to sustain these companies through downturns so they can afford if they need to put more equity in a company, refinance in a way that makes sense. they are not looking to exit immediately so they will wait, reconfigure businesses as it makes sense, and exit at the right time. the other question is from an investor's side, there is less recycling going on. less sales, less ipos which means investors are in there longer. sonali: less fundraising. i am wondering how much uncertainty, the israeli at home

support, anxiety in the --. leon: there is obviously a lot of anxiety. we all know about the horrific events. from the investors' side, they had a successful conference. the investor base has significant capital to deploy. from their vantage point, especially when you look at tech , valuations have come down. the opportunity to start to deploy capital is pretty good. no one can guess the bottom but it starts to look interesting at this point in time, especially for private companies that need capital. they have been any obvious source in the least and they have had a successful run. matt: let me ask you about rates. powell said they believe rates are restrictive. he told david westin they are

not too tight. from your view, what do financial conditions look like? leon: financial conditions look reasonable. we saw the third quarter gdp number which was a surprise. the consumer is still continuing to do well. what we have not yet seen is smaller companies that have had their interest rates float upwards. i believe that is something that is still to come. the fed rate increases have been at numbers we have not seen since 2000. it takes a while to bleed into the real economy. we all have discussed commercial real estate. i think the midmarket companies will have to watch very carefully if they are unhedged because a free amount of cash flow is going to get eaten up with interest rates. we have not yet seen that pain. matt: blonde -- long and

variable lag is still to come. leon: i think so. hopefully geopolitically and financially next year is a euro of stabilization -- is a year of stabilization. matt: thank you for coming in. sonali basak, our reporter, and leon kalvaria from citigroup. still ahead, we are going to talk about ozempic and the ceo on the blockbuster drugs and the earnings they have driven. this is bloomberg. ♪

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matt: this is "bloomberg markets ." novo nordisk sales surged mostly thanks to the drugs -- and it was in big -- and ozempic.

the ceo says sales will increase gradually. i spoke with him alongside katie greifeld. >> right now it is not allowed to provide for -- medicines so it takes a large change to open up for that. that is being debated in washington and could have been in the future. we see we are expending the access in the commercial space. we have access to some 50 million americans having commercial insurance and also some government -- we see it gradually opening up and we see broad access that we can address. most of those patients are facing -- for getting our medicine. katie: you have everyone from snack makers to tailors, etc.,

warning about the so-called ozempic affect. what are your thoughts? do these drugs have that far-reaching effect or are these concerns overblown? lars: obesity is a leading cause of number of calm abilities, also snacking and the like. some of the speculations about how it impacts the food industry accurately drinks industry is perhaps exaggerated. it underlines that for the first time we have had -- which is something that is a concern of a large part of the western society. many patients have been trying to lose weight in different ways. now that there is a way of doing that, there is a lot of help to patients. it is a benefit to the health

care systems in terms of mitigating the cost associated with diseases. that is a fantastic opportunity for the industry. at least novo nordisk is being active in this space. matt: that was lars, the novo nordisk ceo and katie greifeld interviewing him. for more, we are joined by mike shaw of bloomberg intelligence. great to have you on the program . i am sure what you saw the released this morning at what they have been saying but they are cagey about how they are going to boost production because there is a shortfall. why are they telling us their plans but we cannot reveal them? mike: eli lilly is their main competitor so they need to keep some secrets in their pocket.

both drugmakers are investing heavily to expand manufacturing capacity. we should see an uptick in 2024. as to quantifying that, we are going to have to wait until 2024 to get a better -- there. matt: is medicare going to cover this and is the u.s. going to try to negotiate the price down? mike: when we look at the data, it supports medicare coverage. what the congressional budget office is going to want to see is how these drugs work within the specific population, 55 years plus? what is the safety profile of these drugs? in terms of actually getting covered on medicare, it will eventually get medicare coverage.

it just remains to see how long that takes. matt: thank you so much for joining us. mike talking to us about novo nordisk. jay powell may be putting himself in a no win position. we will talk fed. this is bloomberg. ♪

joan: welcome to "bloomberg markets." matt: let us get a quick check on where markets are at this hour. it does look like we have had the session high on the s&p right now, and it is the best 4-day rally in a year. we have been up monday, tuesday, wednesday, and now today on thursday. the s&p 500 over 4307.

you do have the bloomberg u.s. dollar index coming down. nymex crude is a bit of a headwind, but it has been very volatile lately, now up a little more than two dollars 82 -- $82 63 cents a barrel. this is where the story gets exciting, or at least it was this morning. you have the u.s. two-year rising a little bit. the five-year yield is pretty unchanged, but the 10-year yield is where we saw a ton of action this morning. it was down under 4.63% for a couple of tics. it was only a few sessions ago we were up through five. the same is true with a 30-year yield. it came down through 5%

yesterday right when we got the treasury coming out with its refinancing operations, right now trading at 4.8343 percent, so a heck of a lot of volatility in fixed income in rates. jon: lots to chew on. we have some deal news today, and that's getting a lot of attention. six flags teaming up with cedar fair, which in the toronto area operates canada's wonderland. we will have to get matt miller to do his themepark assessment of that one one day. some positive earnings stories. starbucks shares more than 10% on the session. investors encouraged by the outlook. on a day we are awaiting numbers from apple, let's take a look. stocks like palantir, which is a are offerings seem to be inspiring investors. an even stronger percentage move

for shopify, the e-commerce giant that is based here in canada, rallying in a big way after its quarterly results, and the gain is so big and this company's market cap is so significant, fueling us to the best decision for the tsx so far in 2023. matt: i want to point out that i'm from the great state of ohio and we have a couple of cedar fair's parks. i grew up going to cedar point, which i loved, and on the rare occasion when i was allowed to go down south to cincinnati, that's where kings island is which they also own, and that is the home of the beast, which at the time at least was the home of the biggest, fastest wooden roller coaster in the world. pretty exciting stuff when it comes to amusement parks. let's get to the exciting stuff when it comes to financial conditions. overall markets, the impact yields are having on financial conditions, fed chair jay powell talked about that yesterday and how that affects his thinking

regarding rates. >> persistent changes can have financial conditions regarding monetary policy. changes could matter regarding future rate decisions. with financial conditions, we are looking for persistent changes that are material. jon: let's get more perspective. and along -- anna long -- anna wong and liz mccormick joining us now. i want to get reaction to what powell had to say yesterday. we have already seen comments from bill dudley, which the cony there is a language change from jay powell that those tighter conditions we were seeing suddenly ease and that complicates the job for the fed going forward.

>> yeah, there's a lot of focus on that. the bond market got a windfall from the treasury. there was a little bit less long-term debt they are going to sell this quarter. that helped, and then chairman powell came along, and he will seek to take it as the fed has ugly done, but you are right. he talked about the financial conditions, one of them is the higher rates. i do see a lot of strategists saying there's a risk to that. we have stocks up and most of the yield curve with lower yields that could kind of ease financial conditions too much, but he did clarify it has to be persistent. a day or two of easing is not going to up and there schema. i think they are getting to the lags in the system, that some of this tightening will work its way through, but some economists

say he jammed things up more maybe than he wanted. matt: maddeningly, they are variable as well as long. do you think the fed sees this, sees a recession coming, and have they gone too far in terms of rate rises? are they going to bite a little too hard? anna: what powell told us that staff has not put in a recession call, so i don't see a recession coming, but that said, i do think is rather dovish comments yesterday suggest they are seeing some weakness in an economy that most market participants have not seen yet, and one thing that i suspect is the driver of that dovish comment is that slough survey. the fed has a senior loan officer, and we don't, but we are going to get it next monday and it likely will show that credit tightening has already

happened. we have seen from the same survey a couple of months ago that things are flattening, that they plan to tighten credit. it could very well be that fed officials have seen that in the data, so they are worried that there is more weakness to come, and that is perhaps one of the reasons why despite the upcoming inflation driver that they did not really reflect that in their policy statement language or powell's comments yesterday. matt: there is a top 10 list of reasons to worry, and i bring that up to people all the time, and they always counter with jobs, unemployment. even this morning, i had a guest who said you really think we are going to recession when we are adding 200,000 jobs a month? you have some interesting research. tell us about it. >> we looked at the nonfarm

payroll for the past three recessions, and it looks like even nonfarm payrolls come in at over 200,000, even 300,000. that does not take recession off the table two months later. there are so many ongoing revisions. on the other hand, the signaling, variable. the data point we are looking at is actually the unemployment rate, and our payroll preview coming up later today will state that we are expecting a turning point in the labor market in either tomorrow's report or next month's report. we think the unemployment rate is suggesting a recession will happen within the next three months if it has not already happened. jon: that's helpful inside. we will watch what happens with the payroll report. liz, something that stood out in your story that i think bears repeating is when we got so used

to worries in the bond market and the pressure that we would see in the selling, pushing up yields. the question becomes going forward in this arguably newer environment, what kinds of selloffs we see going forward. is it possible we will see different selloffs, maybe more muted going forward? liz: i think that is highly likely. volatility is not going away overall. yesterday, we had a mammoth move in yields and a pretty big one this morning, like you said, but i think as it becomes more clear -- i mean, that was the read yesterday, but as the sons grow and we don't get a lot of pushback from fed officials in the coming days, then maybe the fed is done. i think that will temper the reacting as much to every data point, and i think part of the reason driving the long end is they do think ultimately we are

going to get a recession. like anna said, fed officials are not forecasting it, but there's enough wall street forecasters saying that, so i think we might settle into a little more clarity. the bond market hates uncertainty, so maybe we get a little more clarity, and then the market will start thinking about when the cuts come, but powell said yesterday they are not thinking about cuts, so we will see, but i think we will lessen these extreme moves. matt: thank you very much. we will get nonfarm payrolls out tomorrow morning. we are looking forward to it. coming up, we talk about apple earnings. those are coming out after the bell. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

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jon: time now for our stock of the hour. we are watching the mighty apple, said to report results after the close. the company has become a cash machine with a growing services business. we will get an early taste of iphone 15 performance, investors could zero in on how the selling period looks, not to mention what is happening in china these days. "bloomberg technology" cohost ed ludlow joining us from san francisco. set the stage for us. ed: this stage is set with the expectation this will be the fourth straight quarter of

revenue declines. you have to go back two decades to find a period of slump that apple has gone through like this. in focus will be the latest generation of iphone, iphone 15. it was released september 22, meaning that in the quarter, there are eight or nine days, depending on geography, of sales that will be reflected in the results they post and announce. if you go back to the fiscal third quarter, what they said was greater china slumped to a topline gain of 8%. consumers moving from an non--apple headphone set, but the third party data has disputed that. third-party data says in the first 30 days the new iphone has been on sale in china, it has underperformed by high single digits. the same period a year ago when the iphone 14 went on sale.

revenue for services might be a bright spot in more significant growth. the other piece of news be on the announcement of next-generation mac is that they have raised prices across the services and subscriptions offering. what will that look like going into the end of the year? matt: thanks very much. you can catch his program every weekday at noon, and he is supporting -- reporting across the day, from "surveillance" to close. one of the things that has been telling us about is the importance of china. apple has given us the numbers to prove that out. what do you expect from the chinese business in the current quarter? >> i think it will be a challenging quarter for apple and china will be one of the reasons. you look at china, it is about 20% of apple's revenue. they are highly dependent on it

from a supply chain standpoint, but the macroeconomic weakness in china primarily and potentially secondarily, some protectionist behavior by the chinese government, which may or may not be limiting government employee having iphones could be limiting soft sales, and i think that will be a challenge. matt: that in the fact that they are raising prices now when consumers have spent all of their savings, and they brought up huge credit card bills and they have car loans they cannot afford. delinquencies are rising. student loan repayments are coming back online. are people going to be able to upgrade and pay for the services as apple raises prices? >> yes and no. the no part is they have already picked the low hanging fruit. half the people who bought handsets from apple are doing it on an installment basis. the glass half-full is that wireless carriers in the u.s. are still subsidizing new iphone

sales pretty significantly. they are trying to support the billings they spent on 5g, so it is a bit of a mixed bag. at other times, we have seen that iphones behave more like a consumer stable than consumer discretionary item -- more like a consumer stable. i think they will not be able to rely on the iphone to bail them out this quarter for some of the reasons you mentioned. jon: we talked about the u.s. and china. let's talk about india because we don't talk as much about it, but you have been watching the story for apple there. >> is it's a huge right spot. i think that will be another bright spot in the september quarter for apple. it is small in total sales basis, but if you look at what they did in china as a long-term playbook, and should be more significant for the long term supply chain standpoint, and they should generate more revenue from consumers in india as consumers raise their household income over time. they just opened two apple

stores there, so i do think india will be a bright spot, accrue double digits in the june quarter, likely retain double digits in the september quarter. >> in a year we have talked a lot about the ai opportunity for big tech, i feel like it gets less attention than the daily narrative around apple, but how closely are you looking at that? >> looking at it very closely. apple is trying to convince consumers to buy hardware leveraging artificial intelligence, very different from what microsoft and google are doing, which is changing the paradigm in search, leveraging ai, and very different from cloud computing companies, amazon, microsoft, who are selling the enterprise's, the potential magic of ai. topsail. following the ai story for apple is not as interesting.

matt: the way they have been getting us to buy hardware for at least a decade now is telling us it has a faster chip. their event last week was called scary fast, but i don't know about you, i cannot discern any difference in speed from the lightning fast chips i already have two the next one that is a little bit faster. same is true about the cameras. it has a better camera. the last 10 cameras i had were insane. i don't care. what are they going to do to get me to upgrade other than saying it has a faster chip and better camera? >> is it's a huge problem for apple. i like to think how they rolled out essentially onstar in the iphone 15, leveraging artificial intelligence, and an sos you might get on your iphone every now and again, but is it's a big problem for apple, which is why they need the vision pro to work . matt: the onstar function works well, by the way. i felt on the pickleball court a

couple weeks ago, and my apple watch asked if he should call emergency services, so that pretty good. i'm getting old enough where that is important. thank you so much for joining us. da davidson senior research analyst. we are going to get job results out after the bell. i think a lot of investors will be glued to the screen for that. >> absolutely. be careful. take care of yourself on the pickleball court these days. we are going to stay with the technology theme. a lot of people have talked about chatgpt this year. how about if you are cramming for a cfa exam? can a chatbot do better than you ? we will find out next. ♪

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markets." time now for today's "for what it's worth" -- how about 300? that is the number of hours cfa candidates typically spend prepping for the cfa exam at each level, which got people wondering, chatgpt -- could it get a passing grade in no time flat? a team of researchers have concluded that openai's chatbots might still be ways off from getting their designation. matt: i thought it was the clickable headline when i first saw this. bloomberg reporter wrote about if ai has the ability to pass the first two levels of the cfa exam and joins us now. jp morgan and some university researchers looked at level one and level two, and the free

version cannot do it, right? >> without prompting the models with some example questions, chatgpt and gpt for were not passing -- matt: gpt for is the one you have to pay, like, $30 a month, right? >> i'm not sure. >> when you prompted it with example questions, gpt 4 past level 1 and level two, so we might not be far off from seeing a gpt cfa title. jon: it was amazing that we also got an indication that chatgpt might be a little bit better with derivatives knowledge but maybe a little less so with portfolio regiments, so maybe we get a taste, but the work experience component, i guess for anybody who is worried about chatbots taking their jobs, it is one of the takeaways from this as well. emily: william shaw of bloomberg

and i spoke to a cfa representative institute that said not only do you have to pass levels 1, 2, and three, but we have a number of work hours put in to receive the designation to be able to say you are a cfa, but again, ai might be able to do that one day, i would argue. it was interesting. there's a lot of categories on the cfa, so the researchers found that those that have to do more with case studies rather than a portfolio manager question would have a large example. the models had a little more trouble answering those questions than ones that were just straight definitions and computational problems. generally they had an easier time answering those. matt: thanks very much. i use chatgpt for jassy strategy and it's not very good at that. i hope it is better at financial analysis -- i use chatgpt for

yahtzee strategy and it is not very good at that. the s&p at session highs, 1.8%. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> a post-fed prejob today rally in stocks. cinelli: we are kicking you off to the closing bell here in the united states. we are near session highs. we are looking at another day of green on the s&p 500. 1.8% higher on the day. that brings the weekday rise to one of your best weeks in a full year. you are also looking at take higher