matt: welcome to "bloomberg markets." let's get a check of where the markets stand. we are gaining on the s&p 500. if we close on the green today, it will be the longest streak of consecutive days of gains we have seen in two decades. true superlative, the s&p at 43 point -- 4385.

the 10 year yield looked better than it did a couple of weeks ago when it eclipsed five. the dollar index holding at 1261. crude, still fairly, relatively low compared to what we have seen in recent weeks. $76.15. the s&p is the story to watch. we are focused on rates this hour because we are moments away from getting the details on the 30 year treasury auction. mohamed el-erian laid out what is driving yields. >> no longer about insufficient demand but insufficient supply. the fed is going to get the head cover from headline inflation coming down avidly. even though core inflation is going to be sluggish, they will get air cover from headline inflation. as for the rest of the curve,

this will be about the further out you go, the greater volatility you are going to see. is too early to tell how that is going to play out. matt: let's bring in meghan swiber. talk about the importance of this auction, we are about to break the headlines. how key is it meghan: -- key is it? meghan: it is important for treasury. they are interest-rate sensitive. they are increasing these auction sizes by less than we had been anticipating, taking in the fact that auctions have not been going so well. this will be an important test for treasury alongside deficits continuing to grow, especially looking at higher interest rate levels. matt: that u.s. 30 year bonds --

60.1% went in to indirect bidders, 15% to direct bidders, 24.5% to primary. bidders. . how do the numbers look to you? meghan: that sounds pretty reasonable compared to what we have been seeing at recent auctions. i will be interested when we get this data a couple of weeks later from the treasury department, more of the granular breakdown of who has been buying auctions. investment funds have been making up three quarters of the auction takedown, putting a lot of that on this on the domestic real money community to be buying and taking on these auctions. we are saying that when you look at these etf inflows, continue to see strong inflows despite the fact that if you were buying

the 30 year, you are losing money on duration perspective. really important to see how that investment fund community is continuing to support this auction takedown. matt: let's bring in liz mccormick for more on the auction results themselves. i like to look at the ecan function. when i click into the 30 year, i see primary dealers have taken that a bigger share of this is than they typically do. what do you make of the results? liz: a bigger takeaway is the tale, the actual auction results. you might have transposed the numbers but it was 4.769 and before that at 1:00, dwi, 4.716. that is a bad sign. and looks like dealers took a lot of it. i have not seen the breakdown. i am hearing things like wow,

this tale. the yields backed up into the market which is usually good. guys at the bmo were warning higher yields might not be enough. people are more price-sensitive, this is long-duration. definitely this option did not go great as far as detailed. -- as far as the tale. matt: that you could explain what it means to have a tail, we see that spike in yields and i imagine that is what you are talking about. liz: i go back to my days of working for mccarthy. around the time of the auction bidding, if you see where the win issue is a trading, if the treasury is a good auction, they can sell all of their paper close to that level. when they have to go higher and higher, higher yields and lower prices that people want, that means there is less demand.

this means how much treasury had to pay up relative to where the market was trading at the time auction bidding completed. the treasury did down an increase the long-term debt sales by a little bit less. the increase the 30 year by one billion this time but that does not seem to be enough. chairman powell is at 2:00 today . it definitely was not a great auction for treasury. matt: you can see that on the s&p reaction. you see that in the upper left-hand corner. we were up before this auction and i was so excited. if we close the session higher, we have the longest stream of gains in two decades. does not look like is going to happen now because as soon as these results came out, using the equity index has dropped. meghan swiber, what is this

auction tell you about the state of the u.s. finances? meghan: the tail is the most important part of this auction data when we are trying to respond to it. what it is telling us is despite the fact the treasury increased these back and auction sizes less than what many were anticipating, they are struggling with satisfying the demand. treasury was trying to be more tactical noting the move we saw in longer dated yields from august and the prior refining announcement. -- refining announcement. what he can help support this going forward is greater confirmation that the economy is slowing down. we are saying some signs of that given what we saw last week,

looking at what jay powell's comments following the foc meeting were, reiterating that the fed is nearing the end of the hiking cycle, giving investors the confidence to buy duration. right now there seems to be a lot of skepticism, especially thinking about taking down this notable end point of the curve which holds a lot of duration risk. if you see yields move up, you are incurring significant losses. in order to buy, you need to have confidence that the fed cycle is done and is going to materialize more next year. matt: that is a good point that the market does not have enough demand. the ecan function shows you how much we can picture. if you pull out, you can see we are just offering more than we

previously had even though the treasury seemed to tailor its demands to the front of the curve. are those plans set in stone? when do we get a new plan? meghan: treasury is not changing on the fly over the quarter. we have another refunding when they announce their plans in february. . people are saying treasury follows the same cadence, which was a little bit of a surprise. who knows. they have to find a deficit so they can only tempt down so far. they are selling trillions of bills already and they don't want too many bills. there is some maneuvering they can do but their hands are tied because their job is to find the government. they are not making up the deficit, the deficit is coming from congress.

matt: of course. they decide to fund it with three months of debt or 30 years of debt, not 150 years like other countries. meghan swiber and liz mccormick, thank you for joining us on this 30 direction. it is not look like it went terribly well and the equity market is down .5%. it was up ahead of that auction. we work's bankruptcy filing makes ways and cities are bracing for the impact. we will talk to one expert about what he is seeing on the ground.

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>> we talked about the great financial crisis. i said this is a great financial office crisis. we work with 1% to 2% of all office tenants in key markets. matt: "bloomberg markets this is." -- this is "bloomberg markets." wework's bankruptcy is creating uncertainty around markets. let's bring in igal namdar. he is known for producing distressed mall properties but not interested in higher quality office properties. abigail doolittle is with us as well. great to have you here. it is a big news event for us because we covered wework.

so dramatic. in new york, offices have been on a steady run down. he started by new york office in 2020. now you are looking at higher quality properties because you were telling me the market has come down. what you make of the wework bankruptcy? igal: that will make more of a challenge to the office market as there will be more vacancy to fill up. i think there is going to be a flight quality where the top teal -- top-tier buildings will be able to survive and have a positive absorption. the lower tier stuff will have to get repurposed into multifamily or other purposes. matt: what do you intend to do with the properties you by? we have heard about you as a distressed mall buyer and i you

seem interested in higher properties here in new york. are you going to be reinvesting? are you holding these longer-term? what are your intentions? igal: is not a distressed mall's, we are buying good quality malls that have age medicine out of debt that are maturity defaulted that we can buy because of too much leverage. regarding the office, our goal is the same as it has been with retail, to buy the better quality and be able to hold this generation real estate for a family and hopefully as the market gets better, hopefully we will see more positive absorption, list the buildings or maintain occupancy and hold onto it and hope we hold on to these assets that we were not able to buy. the pricing is consolo. -- the pricing has gone solo. -- so low.

abigail: everybody is wondering about these trends in commercial real estate in new york with rates rising and the pandemic, working from home. anywhere from 25% off to 15% off, even that some of the buildings on 3rd avenue could go for less. what pricing are you seeing at were happy about buildings and expecting to buy them as more distressed loans come on the market? igal: that varies in regard to the decrease in price. top-tier assets that have not lost occupancy probably have been reduced the least. assets that are in the second tier or boc class buildings that have vacated, those are hit the worst. mid block buildings that have high vacancy. it is very hard to read tenant those buildings -- to retenant those buildings.

abigail: you own 500 properties, mostly malls. not distressed, just the loans. is that the vision? do you hope to become the -- of new york office? igal: is too early to say. it is our family money so we are just going to focus and buy one asset at a time. our goal is the same as with the mall, by top-tier assets and be able to maintain occupancy or bring under tenants and keep them and grow. if the opportunity will last longer, we will buy more office buildings. business is still retail. the malls and shopping centers are our main focus. matt: we read reports of lawsuits from tenants, lenders, governments and regulators. with regards to his or is not invested in regards to the state

of properties. how do you respond to those? i know they're individual but en masse it seems you're are interested in different market. igal: i would say we own 77 square feet and there are some assets, some malls we bought earlier that were not top-tier. they were second-tier or 30 tier. -- four third tier. some have lost tenancy. some cities want us to still do resale -- two retail but it is hard to keep those assets as retail. we are focusing on finding operating partners and guys to come in to build assets that have declined as retail. they have a lot of acreage,

something that can be useful for -- matt: here in new york, the specific area in manhattan, it has been said that a lot of those cannot be inverted into residential. what you think is going to happen to this corridor of new york? igal: it is tough. there is so much office space in new york city and some of the markets that have been hit hard, the 3rd avenue corridor at lower tier assets have to be repurposed or at some point ownership has to be -- ownership has to put money into modernizing the building, doing prebuilt and they had to accept lower pricing.

there has to be a supply and demand at some point. they are going to lease up but it is going to be pressed up. matt: the ultimate haircut, if you had to say, what will it be for these properties? igal: it is hard to say but i would say anywhere from 25% to 70% drop in values in what i have seen. matt: thank you for coming in. igal: my pleasure. matt: igal namdar are of namdar realty group. still ahead, a conversation with ken griffin in which she predicts high inflation for decades -- he predicts high inflation for decades. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: this is "bloomberg markets ." the fed reverse repo usage dropped below $1 trillion for the first time in two years and it will be interesting to see if it stays that way, especially if we have the kind of auction we just saw. it moved a lot of markets, including the s&p. a 30 year auction, moving around a lot of things, including the s&p 500. the reverse repo usage drops below $1 trillion for the first time in two years. it is time for the wall street beat. ken griffin raised concerns about spending the bloomberg new economy forum. listen to what he had to say on inflation and how it could impact real rates for the fed. ken: if we are looking at a 2%

or 3% baseline, the fed will have any is your job in the u.s. this struggle has been to hit a 2% target. there is a variety of reasons you want, level of background inflation, it helps to the wheels of commerce -- to lubricated the wheels of commerce. that number being 2%, they are going to fight hard to keep that as the target for a litany of good reasons. it also means that we are likely to see higher real rates and higher nominal rates and that will have a real application on the cost of funding our enormous deficit. the uss 33 trillion dollars of debt outstanding. we did not plan for an era of higher nominal and real rates when we went on a spending spree. matt: sonali basak joins us now.

very interesting to hear. i have heard a number of other people in past days saying previously we had a 2% percent -- a 2% inflation ceiling, now it is going to be a floor. the whole paradigm has changed. sonali: this paradigm of train of spending like drunken sailors, that is a term the nikki haley also used. will politicians do something about it? as it pertains to citadel, they have been expanding their fixed income unit. they in the basis trade which arbitrageurs current and future. they are huge a player. as issuance starts to expand, ken griffin, leveraged hedge funds as for advisor start to step back. the market is relying on these funds more and more to keep picking up capacity. matt: what is ken griffin doing with his money in the face of

this giant drunken sailor? sonali: they have been supporting the market with the basis trade, we don't know what that means. they are one of a few large players. this market has gotten smaller because other smaller players have been burned in the past. i want to point to this idea that there are a lot of other funds out there that see visiting opportunity in treasury markets while still being concerned about what is happening with rates. we had a conversation with mark as universal. matt: that was amazing. sonali: he believes rates can go back to zero because the economy is addicted to debt and still sitting in this massive credit bubble. he believes these lag effects have not yet been seen. that is when we are going to face more trouble on the market. matt: that story, i recommend people check it out. he thinks we are in a situation, the greatest tinderbox timebomb

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jon: i'm jon erlichman. welcome to "bloomberg markets". matt: and i am matt miller. big turnaround at the top of the hour. we had the s&p higher at the top of the and it would have been the ninth consecutive day of gains, the longest in two decades. however, we had a 30-year auction that did not go smoothly and the s&p is now down. you see the 30-year yield, that

big spike is a tail after the auction went out, and then you had the big jump because it looked like there was not enough demand for this auction. huge amount of primary dealers taking out this auction. jon, the auction does not go well. these days that has the ability to drive markets. the auctions are worth paying attention to. jon: we had started to see a huge interest once again and technology stocks. you are talking about recent winning streaks. you had microsoft dip into the red. it had been on the longest winning streak since 1987. within the dow you are seeing a healthy advance for disney after well received quarterly results. the stock up close to 7.5%. well received results. how about affrim?

numbers have been leaving investors feeling positive. that stock is up almost 19%. we covered that arm ipo. this is the first set of quarterly results since the public offering. shares down. the smartphone slump seems to be impacting that company as well. matt: just a few moments later, president biden will speak following a conversation he is having with shawn fain. jordan fabian covers the white house. he joins us from washington. what are we expecting to hear from the president? jordan: i think you can expect to hear a victory lap on that contract the uaw secured with detroit's legacy automakers. the president put his reputational on the line supporting their demands. he will talk about that.

and you had elections on tuesday in which democrats over performed. i would expect the president to make a broad pitch for his economic agenda. jon: headlines about the president's support of uaw efforts to unionize at companies like tesla, what is the balancing act for the president? one could argue he had to sideline the clean energy transition while he was on the picket line talking about higher wages for uaw workers. what are you going to be watching on that front? jordan: i am going to be watching his tone. it is a balancing act and it is the same balancing act he was dealing with during the strike. he needs tesla in order to advance the u.s. toward this clean energy economy, toward electric vehicles, so he does not want to alienate them too much. when he talked about elon musk not being a pro-union ceo, he

has rankled musk and they have gotten into twitter battles. it will be interesting to see if the president goes further. an shawn fain is trying to get unions to tesla. matt: i am from the great state of ohio. i saw that ohioans voted to protect a woman's right to seemed to be more about stopping republicans than supporting democrats. was it really a victory for bidenomics? jordan: you raise a good point which is the voters at these elections seem to be motivated by the issues on the ballots versus joe biden or national democratss.

i think both can be true. these issues like abortion rights, drug legalization can be popular, and joe biden can still be facing a lot of headwinds next year, especially because of the economy. he touted the economy's strength but people are paying more than they were for goods than they were years ago before biden was president. even though inflation is coming down consumers are not economists. they are consumers. they see the price of milk and bacon are higher and that is going to affect their vote. matt: jordan fabian coming from washington, d.c. in commodities markets we saw the price of palladium come down. it is used to curb emissions in cars. it fell below $1000 for the first time in years. this is great for me, because i am itching to buy long tube

headers for my hemi and i want the high flow catalytic converters. joe, our prices going to continue to come down? joe: that is what is expected. you are talking about your hemi but one of the things that play that we have been seeping into the conversation the last five years is the future is electric. if you are making the bet the future is electric, you are making the bet that exhaust pipes go away. palladium -- 80% of its use is for catalytic converters in gas powered cars. as opposed to the diesel vehicles which use platinum. if the u.s. is converting faster on the face of the earth, and

the united states is headed that way, you are seeing the two biggest economies moving away from what palladium depends on which is exhaust powered cars. that is one of the things driving this slow move we have seen over the last few years. jon: certainly, looking back in the early days of russia's invasion of ukraine there was a lot of fresh interest in what would happen and how supply would be impacted. here we are talking about the longer-term realities. you mentioned platinum. can we clarify for the audience about pricing and how that ultimately may have played against the palladium story? joe: listen, palladium, platinum, they all do not trade in lockstep. platinum has more uses in jewelry than palladium. but when you're really looking at palladium, it is a demand

story as opposed to a supply story. you are really starting to see automotive demand dropping in many parts of the world. the united states it is steady but we are seeing a lot of up and down across the globe. that is another thing hitting the price of palladium for now. matt: at the same time, i am not sure if demand for ev's is rising, but governments are trying to push that and manufacturers are building more and more of them. are we seeing the demand for copper, for example, rising? for cobalt? for lithium? are those elements on the periodic table gaining in price? joe: right now, we are not seeing a huge run-up in copper or lithium or cobalt in the way people might think because of future prospects. i think that goes to the

medium-term and short-term outlook on global economic demand. if you have concerns in china -- which is the biggest consumer of all metals -- things are looking more dour in europe. all of those are hitting dr. copper but also lithium and cobalt. this transition is not just going to happen overnight. the concerns a lot of people had going in about supply over the long-term, people are starting to assess the medium-term and short-term of what that means for ev and saying, maybe it is not tomorrow. looking at those other metals, that is a macro thing. it is looking more sideways than it is up or down. jon: i know that you have been entering earnings season and looking at the mining companies. i think we are going to be spending more time over the course of this day. we will try to assess where the economy is headed from here.

when it comes to not just commodity prices but outlooks what would you say the biggest takeaways have been? joe: i think the big takeaway is 2024 looks fine but not great. i think for investors that is a big difference. mining companies do not say things are going to be awful. but if they are telling you we do not have huge growth prospects going into 2024, investors are going to say, well, the point of investing is for growth so maybe we take a little off the table. when you talk to the traders, when you talk to contractors and others buying the raw materials -- and i have been on the phone with these guys -- the mood is more cautiously optimistic or steady. people are not building inventory the way they were a year ago when they were worried about supply chain hangups. instead they are taking it easy. you and i talked about this a week ago.

caterpillar mentioned the inventory situation and said, yeah, inventories are lean. our order backlog looking out a number of months is not zooming up. those are the things investors and traders are looking at. it is not like they are expecting some massive recession to suddenly hit. that could happen, but they are saying, yeah, we are not seeing a reason to be upbeat about 2024 growing. matt: jojo talking about -- joe deuax talking about the big industrials. bitcoin is climbing as well as other crypto related assets. the details of that, next. plus, we get a check on the 30-year yield. spiking higher as buyers balk on the sales with higher demand. this is bloomberg. ♪

jon: this is "bloomberg markets" . i am jon erlichman with matt miller. time for the stock of the hour. mike novagratez's company had a hard 18 months of building and lower volumes. results in the third quarter were not great in the first month. but they all have already made that up and then some and off to a good november.

you have seen moods improving in the crypto sector given that run up in bitcoin. matt: it does seem like the conviction of sam bankman-fried helped to add a little bit more certainty to this market. i want to talk to dave about what is going on. i feel like the sbf trial flew by. it was only two weeks. do you think that has added to optimism for the asset class? dave: i think so. the consensus through his testimony was this guy is guilty. but markets move and once you clear uncertainty maybe something more interesting would come out.

they have moved on to the next thing. matt: jon is not going to ask you a question. thank you so much for joining us. dave liedtka talking very quickly. breaking news, report say chinese bank icbc has been hit by a ransomware attack and the u.s. treasury market, as a result, has been disrupted. we are going to get more with sonali basak. sonali: one of china's largest banks was hit with a ransomware attack. remember, a very significant intermediary in the treasury market. this has been part of the reason that the system is clogged up during that auction. the attack prevented icbc from

settling treasury trades on behalf of other market participants. a large executive also telling the paper such a large party on the fixed income clearing corp. potentially impacts the liquidity of treasury markets. i do not want to say this is a nightmare, but it is certainly a bad dream. these are things people are concerned about when it comes to liquid market, particularly such a critical one to all credit markets in the world. jon: absolutely. on a day when we are already seeing action in the treasury market. we will have to watch this closely. we will continue to track some of those headlines. when we come back, traders watching the headlines with fed speak. we are awaiting comments from jay powell this afternoon as other fed officials suggest financial conditions -- not at the end of tightening.

we will explore deeper. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ (captivating music) ♪ (♪♪)

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with a partner that puts you first. godaddy. jon: this is "bloomberg markets" . i am jon erlichman with matt miller. we have been waiting for even more fed speak. a busy week on that front already. the markets continuing to digest central-bank messaging. jay powell set to speak at the top of the hour. joining us is rbc economist claire fan. a lot of people are trying to figure out what the interest rate outlook like. that is why we are interpreting every new piece of commentary. what is your own outlook at this point? claire: yeah, our own outlook for the federal reserve at this point is very much a none and done. we do not expect the fed to move

rates higher. we have obviously seen pretty strong growth backed by consumer trending spends, but there are reasons to expect that strength and momentum to start to wane. matt: it looks like claire is frozen. it looks like we are having trouble with your feet. you mentioned the consumer. jon, she mentioned gdp. it does not look like it is necessarily going to last much longer. i am one who says often do not count the u.s. consumer out. but the consumer has put so much more on credit card, is using more buy now, pay later, interest rates are higher. all of that is more difficult and student loans are set to resume.

claire, on that point, i think we have got you back. student loans, is that going to make a big impact on consumption? claire: i think we have some pre-lim estimates that the hit is going to be 1/10 on monthly pce numbers. but a couple of key things you outlined. with the savings rate in the u.s., it is at a historical low. consumers have been over drawing their current income to finance this really resilient spending pattern. what we are also seeing -- at least from last friday -- the labor market is softening. what that means is incomes very likely going to look softer. there is less to draw on. can the savings rate drop below zero? it can get close, but moving

forward, obviously, with more households facing challenges associated with high prices and student loan repayment, there will be more consumption. they might spend less and save more in terms of dealing with these headwinds. a lot of reasons for us to expect this momentum in q3 not to be extended into q4. jon: i think in the markets right now and the stock market right now a lot of people looking at what history tells us when you enter that central-bank pause point and see rate cuts. we are now a couple of months into the fed starting to hold. do you think we will look back at that as being, in many ways, the pivot point? claire: yes, i think so, and there are still a lot of

uncertainties that remain. the number one key question for the u.s. and the federal reserve remains this looming inflationary risk and where that will go. today we have seen good patterns in inflation reports and we expect a lower print next week in terms of the october data. core inflation will probably ease more and that is good news, but still, at this point, given signs that labor market backdrop is starting to ease, as well as the highlighted things for consumer strength to not be extended into the fourth quarter, many forecasters, alongside the fed, are more convinced that low and steady inflation prints will be sustained in the future. that we will not see inflation pick back up.

as long as that is the case, i think our base case will remain that the fed will probably already have passed that pivot point and for them to continue to stay on pause until later in 2024 when they can start pivoting at a gradual pace. matt: claire, thank you so much. rbc economist claire fan talking moments ahead of jerome powell. he is set to talk at the top of the hour. jon, after the 30-year treasury auction that did not seem to go well. you can see the tail, the big spike, that we got after the auction went out. now we are trading at 4.7710 on the 30-year as rates are up 16 basis points. jon: one of the worst. matt: for jon erlichman, i am matt miller and this is bloomberg.

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romaine: live from studio 2 in new york, i am romaine bostick. katie: and i am katie greifeld. you are taking a look at the s&p 500 where the rally has dissolved. you look at the benchmark currently at 0.4% lower. the same if you look at big tech. the nasdaq 100 off about 0.3%. romaine: a lot of movement in the treasury space. awaiting comments from jay powell. getting headlines coming out right now. the fed will continue to move carefully and that he is not confident that we have achieved stance