>> you are watching "daybreak: asia."

>> counting down to asia's major market opens. >> straley has just come online. -- australia has just come online. oil is staging a relief rally after three weeks of declines. china's consumption rebounds slows with credit week and business confidence losing momentum. airbus is bullish on continuing air travel growth despite inflationary headwinds bid we hear from their chief commercial officer at the dubai air show. annabelle: asx 200 so far looking flat but futures are indicating move higher in the session. we can expect modest trading gains but still range bound because traders are waiting that key u.s. inflation print due later. the headline reading expecting to expand, 3.3% on the year.

elsewhere in the markets, it's notable the lack of trading activity coming through because bonds, effects, not seeing major moves. the asx 200 just a little firmer as we get online. also watching the market reaction that comes into china's credit data. we have aggregate financing numbers out overnight. they missed on the overall figure but he still saw better loan issuance coming through. the detail of this is very much -- or the devil is in the details because it was that government debt issues -- issuance, which is the box in purple. that's the largest share of government debt sales going back to 2018. it shows you how much china's economy is relying on government debt issuance. households, businesses, lower

demand from these contentions. another signal of weakness in the economic recovery. vonnie: we have futures open for trading right now and as you can see, it looks like it might start on an optimistic note in the tuesday session before the cpi data, which everyone on wall street and around the world seem to be waiting for, just to see if it comes in firm and there could potentially be another hike on the table. last week markets were a little skeptical there might be another hike even though the fed chair kept singing we might not be done. futures pointed higher, a little money coming out of the bond market as well according to bond futures. we have some strength if that's what you want to collect, still under $80 a barrel but a little strength in the oil market. we got notes clarifying what the banks are thinking with ubs and morgan stanley looking for fed rate cuts earlier next year.

ubs perhaps a soon as march. goldman sachs much later in the year, fourth-quarter is when they see the first rate cut, more in line with market and fed positioning right now. two cuts but starting later in the year. i want to point out that marco thinks it may not be wise to take advantage of this recent rally we've had. he says it's mostly down to momentum and short covering and remains pessimistic and underweight u.s. equities. he's modest on commodities as a geopolitical hedge. haidi: let's get more on trying to navigate this as we get to the u.s. cpi print, the key release of the week. garfield reynolds joins us. there is already so much noise and positioning and speculation

going into the rest of the real -- the rest of the year and 2024 in terms of the fed. our markets getting ahead of themselves? garfield: markets are mostly trying to do what they usually do, come up with what the future will bring. you have a very divergent set of outcomes. vonnie was talking about the contrasting calls from analysts. in a lot of ways what they are doing is teasing out what the market is trying to pick for the fed. if you have a soft landing scenario, the goldman sachs view more or less makes sense, but certainly the idea is you don't get rapid fed rate cuts. ubs and morgan stanley are saying just as in previous times, once the fed has pushed

the economy into recession, they will have to cut rates rapidly. if you think a recession is coming, those sort of rate cuts, 150, 200 base points, those make sense, but the question is the timing. some think, something later. you bring that back to equities, if you are an equity investor you think the fed is pretty much online, the economy will slow but not too much and that's probably what you want because earnings will be good but the fed won't be keeping rates too high for too long. however if you don't invest in equities and you think you will get 200 basis points of rate cuts coming, that is a somewhat schizophrenic call. the fed is not going to cut like that unless unemployment is soaring and that will put a lot of pressure on the outlook.

bringing that back to cpi, you've got the question, is that's going to be a further step toward the soft landing idea or is it going to be a step toward the hard landing idea? vonnie: or will we even know and get something we are anticipating? i have to ask about the yen. did we get intervention? garfield: it doesn't really look like intervention. i think the market is pretty wary of the idea that japan could intervene very strongly if it did get significantly higher, 152 or beyond would maybe force the japanese to come in. the other thing is, if you think u.s. yields have paid and are going to come down and the boj

is gradually moving toward policy normalization, that undercuts the fundamental set up for a significantly weaker yen from here. i think there is a little bit of picking up pennies in front of steam rollers when it comes to betting on further yen weakness and that's making traders very willing to pull back rapidly if they think they are risking getting squashed. vonnie: garfield, thank you. our chief rates correspondent. news surveys and data on the chinese economy show both the consumption rebound and private is this confidence continuing to lose momentum. let's bring in our chief northern asia correspondent. what exactly are these alternative indicator showing? stephen: what official data has shown but in more granular terms. october was supposed to be a

month generally win consumption picks up. it has that big weeklong holiday at the beginning of october, where people go about and spend, give gifts and have banquets and the like, it looks as though consumer consumption is losing steam. that's what these surveys are showing. also some of the granular data from the likes of quant cube technology, that uses alternate dative sources, representing people's movements and also consumer reviews. chinese consumer demand for recreation and transport in particular fell in october from september. same conclusion from a survey from morning consult. this is a quote from the latest report which surveyed october consumption. "despite the government's latest

financial stimulus, but government issued about one trillion yuan in special bonds, but they say despite the latest financial stimulus, during october, our data indicates a persistent deceleration across all sectors, notably in transportation." people did not travel as much during the october holiday, did not spend as much and that is reflected in the latest october cpi numbers that have slipped again into deflation, with prices falling 0.2% year-over-year. gdp will be a tough one, it will be tough to meet that about 5% gdp growth target set by the government if we keep going on this trajectory. exports are weak, consumer demand is weak, property sector is weak and even the singles' day holiday, which sort of culminated over this weekend, did not wow. haidi: the credit data, we know

they've been trying to make borrowing conditions more favorable. has there been take up? stephen: not according to the estimates we had. the october aggregate financing number was well below the estimates. we can bring up a chart and a look at aggregate finance over the course of the year. often times new yuan loans are frontloaded toward the beginning of the year and taper off toward the end of the year, but still lower than expected. essentially government borrowing made up a record chair of new financing, adjusting fiscal stimulus is the main economic support right now. private sector borrowing remains weak. aggregate financing, there it is. 1.8 5 trillion yuan in october, missing estimates. that data out of the pboc shows the private sector is not borrowing as much as the government is really stimulating the economy right now.

haidi: our chief north asia correspondent in shanghai. finance ministers from epic nations holding the meeting ahead of the summit between presidents joe biden and xi jinping. the u.s. treasury secretary say talks will focus on the economic and financial outlook as well digital assets. our greater china editor has the latest out of san francisco. great to have you on the ground. a lot of this is the lead up to the big event. as steve just mentioned, is also taking place against a backdrop of an economically weaker china. jenni: absolutely that's right. an economically weaker china has a huge impact on the other numbers of aipac -- apec. janet yellen is having meetings with financial ministers they

have three point they are talking about. economics, sustainable finance and assets. it will be looking to boost productivity, and funding for projects that helped the economy, and the net zero goal. but really it's about speaking in a common voice and trying to find ways to cooperate to make these economies stronger. china is the center of a lot of that. vonnie: it's almost a little odd that is what janet yellen concentrating on or what she wants the optics to be. a lot of these countries have things to talk about, is blockchain really the most import and thing? jenni: exactly. they will be talking about a lot of things. trade, inflation, and china's

economic problems. the chinese finance minister i'm sure will face a lot of questions about the data that stephen was talking about for a start. it is worrying for china and the region as well. these are problems these economies will be looking at in 2024. to think about ways they can work together to strengthen the global economy. vonnie: our greater china editor. thank you, she is in san francisco 40 apec meetings, which will continue. still ahead, we speak to a guest about earnings and outlook for the artificial intelligence sector. next, a ceo joins us to talk about investment opportunities and whether he still sees a hard landing ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪

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haidi: investors pretty much fixated on the u.s. inflation data due out this week, let's look at how this plays out across broader investing environment. our next guest runs and out-earn it if -- an alternative investment fund. joining us is the ceo. great to have you with us. i know as of about august you were still in the hard landing camp, now we have the cpi, coming out this week. there is a huge range of divergent views on how we end up.

where are you sitting? al: the hard landing camp. i think it presents a tremendous amount of opportunity, but we eat, breathe it every day in terms of liquidity in the markets today. i don't see any way around the regional banking crisis and the consumer being stretched and where interest rates are. i think 2024, we know there is a lacking dynamic with what the fed has done and when we will see the full impact through the economy. i think by the middle of next year we will be in a recession although that may have already started and we will be informed it has started 20 months from now. i'm firmly in the hard landing camp. haidi: let's pick that apart. the fed has pushed to cycle the economy into the recession so we get hundred 50, 200 rate cuts. al: i'm bigger on the actuality

than the specifics. i think the fed will talk tough until something breaks, a true catalyst where the fed says we better act. election your -- year next year. haidi: how does that determine opportunities? al: i believe opportunities will be very strong for 2024 and 2025 especially in real estate. people talk about private credit. probably the best investing environment we've seen for a decade and i think 2024 and 2025 will be the best years because of the dynamics. it is a buyers market, those

with operating schools -- skills and knowledge, we are seeing it on debt and equity sides. haidi: it's interesting you say equity side as well because we keep going back to how it marks a sea change. do you subscribe to the idea that we are entering where we are seeing stickier changes? it does make it harder for investors. al: it doesn't, i think we have sticky inflation, i think there are conflicting dynamics. i think a lot of policies in place the inflation reduction act is an additional infusion of capital into the markets. you've got imitations on drilling, etc., which assist keeping oil prices high. they got dynamics that make it

hard for the fed to bring down inflation, the blunt instrument of just interest rates might not get it done. higher for longer. i'm old enough to remember these are not truly high interest rates, they are only high relative to where we have been with free money for the last 10 years. in that, and terms of talking about equity today, what we are seeing is sort of i collect three phases of capitulation. first phase, it didn't really happen, second phase is it happen but i can wait, third phase is it happened but i can't wait. that's where we are today. i think you will see sellers capitulate. there are very few options, the fed doesn't have the same optionality it had post gfc. very interesting buying environment. haidi: you been investing in real estate since about 2007.

sitting here today and looking at asia, do you see opportunities outside of the u.s. and this region in particular? there are themes like self storage and student housing that is just now becoming nascent. al: i think there are. we are firmly focused on the u.s. only so we are category killers in the alternative verticals, medical office, senior housing is tooting -- housing and student housing. the housing shortages, we have the same dynamic in the u.s. it's looking at inelastic demands. you have a demand and supply imbalance. a lot of those things also exist in asia and australia. we are just focused on u.s. only

. we see very significant opportunities. haidi: interesting. i know a lot of your decisions are made on demographic challenges. al: correct. haidi: that's got to be compelling and emerging markets. al: i want so we are not interested, we want to play a home game -- we see a tremendous amount of opportunity in the u.s., where we have huge strategic advantages. it is not to say there are not significant opportunities elsewhere, it is something focusing between the lines where we have very outside strategic advantages. haidi: private credit, where you see that picking up? al: it's enjoying its 15 minutes of fame right now. we are seeing 13%-plus yields, a very strong environment. outsized risk-adjusted returns relative to where things have been historically. i think that will persist the next two years, similar to the dynamics i've described on the real estate side.

we are very bullish on private credit, we have a platform that has outperformed for many years and we are focused on direct middle-market lending. a specific portion of the private credit market. i think private credit in general is obviously getting a lot of attention but i think for good reason. the regional banking crisis in the u.s. presents a longer duration opportunity in private credit because i don't see significant liquidity returning for the markets anytime soon. haidi: biggest risk and biggest opportunity for 2024? al: biggest risk is the geopolitical situation around the globe. enough said. obviously we all hope it doesn't but it could spiral out of control. i don't think it will get there but we should not be cavalier about the risks we are looking at. there is a full spectrum of obviously different outcomes, many of them not good. that's clearly the biggest risk

we are facing. biggest opportunity, on the investment side, i think both data and equity seeing huge opportunities. for those that have access to capital and discipline, intelligent investors -- and i mean capital and debt capital, it will be a compelling investment environment. haidi: great to see you in person in sydney. much more to come on daybreak: asia. this is bloomberg. ♪

vonnie: let's have a look at where we stand. the u.s. dollar a little bit weaker, the bloomberg dollar index down 1/10 of a percent. the dxy is down by more than that as of traders away the cpi data tomorrow and whether it

could show a decrease in the growth of inflation, headline and core. the aussie dollar weakening of that. no change right now and the session but we've seen it go from 65 roughly two about 63 .77 the left few days. keeping a close eye on the yen, earlier it touched 151.91 before dropping down. options expiring today. next, a chief strategy the power goes out and we still have wifi to do our homework. and that's a good thing? great in my book! who are you? no power? no problem. introducing storm-ready wifi. now you can stay reliably connected through power outages with unlimited cellular data

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vonnie: this is the picture when it comes to consumer confidence numbers out from westpac in

australia, a fall month on month to 79.9. we know when it comes to the consumer there has been elevated risk of the downside to consumers. we've seen further pressure when it comes to the cost-of-living crisis and additional mortgage payments. interesting to see this, particularly if we see any bump when we get to the key holiday consumer period. we've had a little more conflicting data as well, seeing some of the absence of widespread stress when it comes to individuals and businesses both in australia and new zealand, potentially boating well comparing to other households around the world. we've seen the rate hike, the recent one playing into the fact that consumer confidence has slumped in november. households in the country hunkering down, sentiment

following 2.6%. pessimists still heavily outweighing the optimists with the 100 reading being the dividing line. haidi: that's right, e-cig drop. in terms of the direction for equities, still seeing upside, and we are half an hour into the session. look at the numbers, it tells you we are very range bound, still a lot of wait and see mode ahead of the key u.s. inflation print that will be out that are wednesday or tuesday rather in the u.s., headline reading expected to take down. it will set the direction for markets in the session today. u.s. futures fell steady ahead of that as well. the other key asset we are watching this morning is the japanese yen, we are holding fairly steady in the moves this morning but still taking note of

this big one here. we moved up to 151 .90 1.91, a fresh year-to-date low for the japanese currency and strengthened off of that. traders starting tomorrow what was behind the move, -- starting to mull what was behind the move. could it be traders not wanting to test the limits too much? the currency fairly steady but still want to be watching through the morning. if we hear anything from japanese government officials. vonnie: a software services firm uses artificial intelligence to predict user activity and the highest value users for business. it beat estimates last quarter. the tokyo listed firm has raged -- raised its targets tenfold. joining us is the chief strategy officer. tell us how you do it, we all

want to know how these social media websites can target us so well, i presume it is with products like yours. how are you doing it? joe: for us, the technology and product is the key focus of what we do. when we think about how we differentiate ourselves, we try to differentiate ourselves in different aspects. one is the technology we use. the first and foremost in this category, the most important thing is we are creating a -- we use ai to make predictions so we help our customers with top one -- line and bottom line growth. we believe it is recession proof and that's the main differentiation we have on the technology side. additionally we have focus on first party data and awareness,

using proprietary ai as well as are available ai tools to bring a solution to customers. vonnie: how does that actually work? ai, they are large language models. are you saying depending on what somebody types in on their iphone or whatever device they are using, it triggered something in your software that tells the business, this person is worth x number of dollars to you over their lifetime? joe: there are number of different models. what we do is respect consumer privacy preference, first and foremost. we take a step back, in marketing ai, there are two different categories. there's the recent trend to generate new content, there's also the decision-making ai,

using the data available to customers to achieve the best results. we've been doing research and development using both for many years, even before generative ai became a market. using ai to make predictive -- predictions. and for r.o.i. for customers and marketing campaigns. haidi: tell us about what you are seeing when it comes to spending, the capex and investment plans are making. have you seen any slowdown or is the exuberance in terms of investing on the ai side still as strong as ever? joe: the investment on the ai site is stronger than ever. this is especially true with uncertainty in the markets. what we are seeing is even the

uncertainty in the macroeconomics and geopolitical risks, the customers are most -- much more focused on quantifiable roi dutch r.o.i. -- roi. we see customers are being more open and more sophisticated and more informed in making decisions. this actually helped us to choose. it makes us easier to explain the value proposition of our products and also demonstrate the value to customers. this also accentuates our markets, given there are more customers willing to use ai and we are existing in the market already. we make the market greater than ever for us in the next exciting

chapter of growth. haidi: i am curious how the u.s. and international expansion is going. joe: it is going very well. we entered the u.s. market about 2.5 years ago and essentially had revenue in roughly eight quarters, we are excited to see the group -- the growth. different markets have different unique characteristics. when you look at the u.s., one thing we are seeing is on average u.s. customers are more sophisticated and also more informed compared with other markets. but there's always a vulnerability, u.s. customers are more sophisticated with using ai.

our strategy in the u.s. is we focus on larger enterprise customers. these customers help us in three ways to form strong partnership. never one, they have a greater budget we can tap into, second is they have better business resilience, and the third is the higher level of sophistication to pave the way and accelerate our conversation and even the partnership for us to help our customer growth. so far such strategies going after sophisticated customers has been working well the last three years, we've seen a lot of momentum in possibilities. haidi: joe, really great to have you with us. great to have you with us. looking at corporate headlines, nvidia updating a processor that has been its dominance.

it says it will use high-bandwidth memory to better cope with large data sets needed for developing and am limiting ai. customers are expected to start using it in the second quarter of 2024. a company has raised its four-year profit forecast to an eight year high. they expect net income of $4.2 billion for the year, ending march 31. they say overseas business including trading and managing ipo's along with a cheaper yen help to boost earnings in the first half. it is among lenders expected to benefit from a potential end of the boj negative interest rate policy. >> a tweak in why sisi alone will not have a major impact on our profits --ycc alone will not have a major impact on our profits. we won't make any adjustments in profit outlook just on the long-term interests alone. haidi: boeing has opened the

dubai air show with a flurry of orders, led by a $52 billion commitment from emirates. they've said they will buy 90. china is moving closer to a deal for the 737 max. >> any time there is direct dialogue is a good thing. we've been in china for 50 years now, we've been with our customers. last week, the 95th airplane, the max came back. they have all 95 airplanes flying. we are in the middle of preparing deliveries for the new maxes and i am optimistic about discussions. vonnie: boeing's biggest rival has confirmed agreement in principle on a major order from turkish airlines. the airbus cco told us consumers

are prioritizing travel over other big-ticket purchases and demand is showing sustained strength. >> this year alone, there have been lots of orders in particular with us at airbus. before the airshow, and during the airshow there will be orders, after the airshow. it is not an incredible peak all of a sudden, it is part of a phenomenon. >> it's been that way a while, it's a moment in time when you can take stock, you're about to sign a very large order with turkish airlines. a lot of wide bodies as well. it feels like a moment to reflect on what is happening and it feels like demand from the customers, demand from the industry is strong. the narrow bodies have sold out and now they want to make sure they've got stock. what is driving the demand and what gives the industry this confidence? >> probably the fact that we are seemingly in an under supply

situation again. there is a lot of job doing -- jockeying for supply positions. a few years ago in the midst of the pandemic, manufacturers were asked to slash production by roughly 50%. there's a lot of industrial partnership to rebuild a system capable of producing large numbers of wide-body airplanes. they don't come in large numbers. you don't want to miss the train. >> if i look at discretionary spend at the moment, there is talk about the high end discretionary spend beginning to roll over. do you think that happens in aviation or do you think the lesson from the pandemic is i won't have the watch but i will have the airfare? >> i think the latter is true. i think an air trip is no longer

a luxury, per se, it's part of discretionary consumer spending. >> top of the list? >> i would think. beyond the obvious phenomenon of pent up demand after the pandemic, i believe the consumer will tend to enjoy themselves as they visit friends and family before they buy an expensive watch. haidi: the airbus cco speaking to guy johnson at the dubai airshow. still ahead, energy markets and focus in the run-up to cop 28 happening later this month. a look at the green hydrogen pushed next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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haidi: john kerry speaking last week in singapore. we are a couple of weeks away from cop 28 in dubai, world leaders will gather to discuss boosting investments to move toward net zero emissions. hydrogen needs a push to have a meaningful impact in reducing pollution. storage and transport are particular problems along with a significant gap between supply and demand. let's bring in our nef hydrogen analyst. what is the hydrogen market looking like? kathy: not particularly great. we are seeing manufacturers expanding factories and developers announcing new project pipelines, but as the project pipeline piles up, the one question we keep hearing from the industry is where is the demand? who will we sell this expensive green hydrogen to? according to the database we

published earlier, we tracked almost 50 million metric ton of clean hydrogen capacity announced by 2030. however, just over 10% have identified a buyer and out of those 10%, only 13% of the volume has signed a binding contract. if you look at the number, although the project pipeline looked very promising, only less than 2% of the total volume planned by 2030 has identified a confirmed uptake or -- uptaker by 2030. vonnie: it seems that cost is prohibitive when it comes to hydrogen as a fuel but how is it evolving? kathy: we think hydrogen has a very high potential to have

drastic cost reduction by 2052 undercut green hydrogen or fossil fuels, but the cost is really high. the cost of producing green hydrogen could be around three x or even 10. unless we find a completely new technology to produce green hydrogen, the only way for cost reduction right now is through scale. without those early near-term demand, the cost will not come down. haidi: what is to be done to boost demand? kathy: we really need policies. so far, most of the government are targeting supply-side. the u.s. ira and subsidies out of china, india and australia. that could narrow the cost gap,

but it won't necessarily guarantee demand. that's what we need policymakers to step into support demand. this could take the form of carbon pricing we think the carbon price would need to be really high, at least over $80 to incentivize any significant fuel switch in the industrial sector. the government could also mandate industries where using hydrogen makes sense, like fertilizer or oil refining, to adopt green hydrogen in the future. vonnie: thank you so much, kathy. plenty more to come on "daybreak: asia." this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: looking at the latest developments across strikes and later action headlines. hyundai is giving workers in the u.s. attorney 5% raise over the next four years. the move will affect around 4000 employees at and a simile plant in alabama and at a new plant being built near savannah, georgia, where production is set to start in 2025. starbucks union is planning its biggest trike ever this week.

there will be a one-day work stoppage on thursday, they accuse the coffee giant of fairly negotiating. the move coincides with an annual promotional event where workers say staffing and scheduling issues are particularly onerous. japanese equities have been considered an alternative to china for much of this year, a deeper look shows troubles in china's economy are starting to budge. let's get more from our correspondent. we are seeing the impact of the chinese slowdown affecting japanese companies that have chinese exposure. >> exactly. the latest earning results are showing a growing number of japanese companies are being affected by the slowdown in china. the best example is perhaps steelmakers.

they are one of the best performers so far this year and their profits during the july through september quarter was actually very good. about 8% higher than market consensus, but the outlook is getting weaker. that is because they are getting squeezed by the following price of steel products due to slow demand in china and rising costs , rising material costs. nippon steel, the largest dealmaker in japan, in an earningscondition, the severitys almost unprecedented. investors are getting concerned.

you don't really need to be in chinese markets to be affected. when chinese steelmakers increase their outputs, that will depress the entire market and they will export their products to other countries like south korea or vietnam. the following product price would affect many companies. vonnie: briefly, give us the scorecard, how to japanese companies do overall in terms of earnings? >> if you exclude softbank, who is very volatile, net earnings increased about 15%. the question is how long that will continue. there is a question mark because of uncertainties in the global economy. haidi: our senia -- senior asia

stocks reporter there. looking at trading that will be opening in japan and south korea shortly. mmg preparing to report numbers. a cosmetics maker had its biggest drop since 1987 on monday. the south korean market, we will be watching stocks of hyundai. the next hour, j.p. morgan's private bank says why traders should stay invested. and, the ceo talks about expansion plans in asia. ♪

quick daybreak: asia, counting down to asia's major market opens. we are going to be seeing in just more than 12 hours that cpi data that may get the torpor off of wall street. in monday's session we saw two thirds in bonds trading at equities trading. >> there's a lot of trepidation given of course we have been talking about the divergent range of possibilities when it comes not just to cpi but how it plays out going into expectations for 2024. we are seeing caution so far in the asian session. >> that is right. cautious, range bound, is going to be the hallmark of the session. it is the countdown to the u.s. inflation print and the expectation as you said that we could have seen moderation in

october. still quite far off the fed target. the core reading expected to stay unchanged. something else that could keep the fed higher for longer narrative. much in play. that has been feeding into the direction of the japanese yen. we saw a fresh intraday low against the greenback. we are back off of that but still something that's being tracked very closely. it would not raise any sort of risk of japanese government intervention. the cheaper yen has been helping japanese banks over the course of this year. we are in the reporting season for japanese lenders. mizuho posting after the bill in a prior session raising its full-year profit forecast. that stock not trading just yet. we will market and we see some live pricing. that is the outlook. let's take a look at how korea has come online. it is expected to track the u.s.

session. some very modest gains for the s&p 500 overnight. you are seeing that in the dynamic so far for the kospi, the more tech heavy because dac as we come online this morning. the korean won tracking around its 100 day moving average for the currency bid. a little bit firmer against the greenback. let's change on because in australia today there has been a couple of points to note. first we have the deputy or the assistant governor of the reserve bank speaking right now at a conference in australia. that is karen silk. she is saying there are several risks that underpin resilient demand in the country. also watching the chinese economy very closely and overnight as well of course we did see the weaker loan demand coming through for households, corporate's, but stronger government debts issuance. tracking any headlines that come out of that. we did as well have consumer confidence figures. we saw those slumping in november. that did follow the rba 25 basis

point increase. otherwise, brent crude coming online. strong gain of 1.3%. it does track we are seeing wti as well. a relief rally coming through. vonnie put it in perspective, it has been three straight weeks of declines for the economy. >> traders have been sitting on their hands a little bit ahead of the u.s. cpi print tuesday. headline price pressures remain stubbornly high with economists expecting core inflation of 4.1% for october. that's from a year earlier and will be unchanged from the previous month. with us now, executive director at j.p. morgan private bank. give us your outlook for the inflation data. does it remain sticky through year-end? what does that say to the fed? >> thank you for having me on the show. we expect from the inflation

print probably largely continuing some of the decline we saw from last year. we expect the headline will moderate a little bit more even from last month reading. but i think you are right saying -- even if you think about the headline on the sequential basis, you can project that into an annualized trend, we are looking at between 2.5 to 4%. the first thing i notice is that the range is basically above the fed target. the second thing is that that is a big range. that does mean there is risk that inflation could still surprise the fed on the upside. this is the upside risk to inflation given the backdrop of very strong growth we have had in the u.s. third quarter. this is very much the backdrop that's going to keep the fed i think probably holding on to its current level of interest rate for a little longer. that will continue to be the

theme post cpi reading. >> there are vestiges of thinking in the market that perhaps there might be another rate increase. certainly jay powell would not rule that completely out. but we are also now seeing banks weighing forward their estimations for rate cuts so we have ubs beginning to think about a cut by march of next year. what is jp morgan's estimate for when we might see cuts? >> we think the fed is probably done. realized inflation has come off quite meaningfully from the peak in summer of 2022. so to the point that now there is a positive real rate buffer. we think on that basis, the fed probably do not need to hike rates anymore. the fed has also talked about the rise in volatility and how that is going to weigh on growth. that is another factor that will mean they will be likely holding

their level of interest rate. that said we don't think they will rush into a rate cut cycle so quickly given the strength of the economy and as i mentioned earlier the upside risk on inflation 12 months out. our projection is that they probably will hold the current level of interest rate for a couple of months and maybe think about some fine-tuning. two rate cuts of 50 basis points in the second half of 2024. still just a fine-tuning or normalization if you will. still sitting at a pretty high level. >> there is the camp we could be dealing with structurally sticky higher inflation for longer and that's not going to just be next month or next year but perhaps entering into the next phase for the markets. in that sort of environment would you be extra cautious when it comes to tech? you are opportunistic when it comes to tech that is reasonably valued. >> sure.

there are structural factors affecting inflation over the long run. one of them of course is the reshuffling of the goldman supply chain. the other is energy transition. all of this means we will not have inflation going back to below 2% in the u.s. the next couple years. i think that is very much the view that we think is right. that said, i do think when it comes to what investment would possibly work in this type of environment, i think we still have two -- it is more important you have to be disinflation. that is why we are looking at the sectors in the economy that could generally outperform. we are not looking at the tech sector very much fit into that. we are not thinking of every tech company. we have quality buyers.

we like a company with good cash flow, a strong balance sheet that can with strand -- withstand a higher level of nominal interest rate. what we are looking for, rolls what we are looking for, rolls that will not be inhibited by a higher nominal interest rate the next couple of years. very much the secular growth momentum driver is what we are looking for. the area we are looking at our secular growth. they also have to come in at a reasonable valuation. there are certain areas of the moment picking out interest, things like semiconductors. still sitting at earnings about the bottom, very much a secular growth trend. something that fit into our investment area at the moment. >> how compelling our valuations in china right now? >> valuations are very low i do

think if you look at the economic fundamentals, we are not growing at 6% as we were pre-pandemic but for percent or 5% growth is still achievable for next year. it's not too bad. policies are playing a more proactive role. based on these things i would suggest the valuation is very attractive. the sentiment is quite fragile. that means valuation is probably not going to -- the market is not going to move valuation alone. it needs other catalysts and some of the catalysts have to come from a clearing of the policy uncertainty when it comes to being pro business. some of that may be external uncertainty or higher interest rates. that's the type of things that are keeping markets range bound at the moment. if you think about a certain type of exposure in the china market they are still quite

unique. not only in this part of the world but globally. you get good exposure to industrial 5g. good applications when it comes to artificial intelligence. there are all these types of exposures that are interesting and offer structural opportunities for long-term investors. that is a part of the market that we still like. >> can i ask you about the yen? maybe i should say 15191 because at that point we saw obviously something happened, whether it was traders or perhaps intervention. there was a rumor there may have been intervention. what does jp morgan see for the yen? what was today? >> i think the yen is still on a depreciation trend. probably a slower pace than earlier in the year.

but china is still pointing toward depreciation pressure for two reasons. the biggest reason is the bank of japan is not taking a particularly proactive role reining in inflation. that means the expectation continues to go up. it pressures the yen on the weaker side. that in turn creates even more inflation pressure. that is kind of a feedback mechanism that is very much still in play. on the other hand you have what we just talked about. the fact u.s. rates are not expected to come down anytime soon. the global environment is still what it is. for both of these reasons the yen is still in the depreciation trend. i do think we are getting very close to what we think is the target for the end of this year which is slightly above 150. so the pace of depreciation probably should slow from here. but i think the trend is very much depreciation and intervention from policymakers will not necessarily reverse

that for now. >> always great to have you with us. let's get you back to belle for a look at the movers and what has been going on with the currency has played into bank earnings as well. >> that's right. we saw it in mizuho's numbers yesterday. the japanese bank raising its full-year profit forecast. the third-largest lender in japan. but seeing net income of ¥640 billion for the year ending march 41, that will be the highest level in eight years for the banks, 4.2 billion u.s. dollars. it really was about the cheaper yen playing into gains in investment banking, trading. you see the stock up 3%. the broader banks index as well outpacing the gains we are seeing for the board of topics. we will have mitsubishi, mitsui,

reporting their numbers later on tuesday after the bill. let's change on because there's another stock we are keeping track of. yesterday in the session, keeping a close watch on she sado -- shiseido. cutting its full-year profit forecast, slower demand for chinese consumers really does follow that release of treated radioactive waste water at fukushima that started in august. the stock retracing its losses from a prior session. >> thank you for that. 3.7%. still ahead we will speak exclusively with dhl group ceo tobias meyer as the company opens its expanded cargo hub in hong kong. first president biden stepping up the pressure on israel over civilian casualties as its forces press on their offensive against hamas. the latest on the conflict next.

this is bloomberg.

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>> president biden has called on israel to take what he calls less intrusive action at a hospital in gaza stepping up the pressure to reduce civilian casualties. bruce einhorn joins us now with more. are we starting to hear a more vocal president biden, more vocal u.s. in terms of reminding i guess israel of the limitations that should perhaps be in place throughout the course of this conflict in minimizing humanitarian fallout? >> israel has been intensely

criticized by governments in the region, by others around the world, the united nations, other international organizations, for attacks on hospitals in gaza. the president did say the main hospital in gaza city, must be protected. president biden said it is hope and expectation there will be less intrusive action with military around the hospital. israel has said hamas uses hospitals for storage of weapons , as basis. a spokesman for the israeli defense forces give a briefing in which he showed video the idf says is evidence that hamas was storing weapons in the basement of a children's hospital in gaza. hamas has denied this. hamas designated as a terrorist organization by the u.s. and the eu. the u.s. has expressed support

for israel's position that hamas does use hospitals for this purpose. matthew miller state department spokesman said yesterday that the u.s. is confident in intelligence showing hamas maintains command posts beneath hospitals. the u.s. has said that it wants more action by israel to protect civilians in gaza. the u.s. national jake sullivan said that the biden administration wants to see longer humanitarian pauses not just lasting hours, but days. he did also tie that in with the release of hostages as well. we have heard that there are negotiations underway. so far no resolution on what will happen with the hostages and whether there will be longer humanitarian pauses. >> we know the u.s. has struck

iran-linked targets in syria. cnn reporting u.s. forces have been attacked by at least four groups of people. most likely each of them iran-backed. what is happening beyond guys in the sense of actors, getting involved -- beyond gaza in the sense of actors getting involved? >> this is not the first time. there have been 40 attacks on u.s. and coalition forces in iraq and syria over the past month. the u.s. did strike an iran-backed facility yesterday. there were reports from a person familiar that there were casualties there. since then as you said there has been a report from cnn that there were additional attacks on u.s. facilities. the u.s. secretary of defense was in seoul yesterday and

warned iran that the u.s. would retaliate if attacked further. the defense secretary said these attacks must stop and if they do not, we will not hesitate to do what is necessary again to protect our troops. the possibility of this war widening is out there as these attacks continue between u.s. and iranian forces. >> that is bloomberg's bruce einhorn. opec-plus meanwhile is arguing against what it calls an excessively negative sentiment in the oil market. the cartel issued its latest analysis to the market as it prepares to meet. su keenan joins us. when opec meets often there is some kind of announcement. do we anticipate anything? >> we expect they are going to extend cuts to the end of the year. this is interesting given the fact they are saying the oil market is strong. particularly demand.

a lot of this is to do with the israel-hamas conflict. there was concern this would push the price of oil higher. as traders have seen, the conflict has not extended beyond the region. prices have fallen back. opec now saying the oil outlook is positive and disputing what it calls exaggerated negative sentiment. they are hitting back in a big way at the bears. analysts expect members of opec-plus, saudi arabia and russia, will extend their cut well into 2024. these are voluntary cuts. saudi arabia cutting one million extra barrels per day beyond what it originally agreed to. russia extending export reductions. you are looking at nymex and brent crude which both -- nymex traded oil down 17% from its peak last september.

brent crude which had been nearing 100 shortly after the israeli hamas conflict began has now pulled back to 80 last week and is now starting to edge back again. what's being called a relief rally. >> we are seeing what looks like a rebound after three straight weekly declines for oil. >> this is something a lot of oil bulls are welcoming. oil extending this rally in asia trading. up for the fourth day in new york trading. this again after those three straight weeks of pulling back in asia trading. again, there are a number of factors. the report from opec detailing a couple of things. the asia demand it says, china demand is very healthy. they are reporting the imports

are healthy. the asia refining market margins are strong again. there has been concerned about demand coming out of asia. they are talking about healthy fundamentals and that is also shoring up the market which many would say is opec-plus's intent. >> plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. (adventurous music) ♪ ♪ ♪ be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia.

>> finance ministers from apec nations are meeting ahead of the meeting between joe biden and xi jinping. our greater china editor has the latest from san francisco. no doubt this is the centerpiece

of even the broader gathering. this china and u.s. leaders meeting. in the meantime set the scene for us in terms of what's going on in san francisco. and the troubles the city itself is a host city is having at the moment. >> exactly. to prove to the world it is a great city for tourism and a safe place to come. it is also a challenge. the city has had a big push ahead of the conference to clean up the streets. homeless people have made headlines around the world. it is a fentanyl crisis in california. there is a new ruling from the courts that if authorities offer homeless people a bed and shelter, they are not allowed to refuse that. despite that there is still visible homelessness on the

streets. and obvious drug addiction in the city. there was news this morning a czech tv crew were attacked in a public place in the city. this is a bit of a blow for the city to prove to the world it is on top of its challenges. talks between president xi jinping and biden on fentanyl are going to be important. >> what is on tap for the next few days of conversations? leaders will want to talk about trade and other things as well. >> exactly. today is the big day for finance

ministers. janet yellen will have a press conference to wrap up those talks. from tomorrow we are going to see president xi jinping expected to arrive. other leaders from throughout apec are coming. it is going to be a flurry of bilateral and multilateral talks. that some of the biggest economic issues facing them this year and next year. of course the meeting between xi and biden. >> that is our greater china editor jenny marsh. she will continue to brief us as the days go by. plenty more to come on daybreak asia. * this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we have the business confidence gauge coming through for the month of november. when it comes to business conditions a little bit of improvement. conditions rising to 13 in october from the revised 12 in september. business confidence had fallen two points from a revised flat level in september. we are seeing a little bit of improvement when it comes to trading, profitability. but employment as well as business confidence more broadly seeing softness after we saw consumer sentiment numbers seeing a slump following the latest rba rate hike with the outlook for households falling into the bottom 2% of readings. the rba has warned of further hikes potentially on the horizon as inflation readings here as elsewhere as we look ahead to the u.s. cpi print proving to be sticky. looking at markets, i guess they

are treading water ahead of the cpi print. >> it is all about the wait-and-see mode as we await the key u.s. inflation numbers. the headline reading expected to tick down from 3.7% in the prior reading. the core number expected to stay steady. it really does put up the pressure the narrative that had been building that the fed could start cutting interest rates next year. you are seeing a lot of diversions from the likes of ubs, morgan stanley on the one hand seeing steep cuts, steep reductions to the target rate but goldman sachs on the other expect a much smaller magnitude of reduction. how it is playing out, wait and see. very little moves coming through the bond space. currencies as well really just trading -- treading water. watching the japanese yen. yesterday was the story of hitting 15191, a fresh year-to-date low for the japanese currency. holding steady ahead of the key

u.s. inflation print. elsewhere we are seeing metals starting to advance. seeing the likes of copper for instance gaining 0.8%. looking at equities is the material stocks leading the gains. really does come down to what comes out of the u.s. and watching what's happening in china given we had those credit numbers due yesterday overnight. weaker sentiment coming through, a lot of issuance from the chinese government level, but not really so much borrowing from households. as well as corporate's. >> a lot of domestic challenges on the economic front ahead of the key leaders meeting between president biden and xi jinping at apec. they are expected to rebuild economic ties. meantime we heard ahead of that the chinese vice president saying the recent high-level meetings between two countries is sending a positive signal for

the world. speaking at bloomberg's new economy forum he warned against protectionism and de-risking. >> unilateralism and protectionism lead nowhere. security cannot be overstretched. so-called derisking will only divide the global economy into isolated islands. >> let's look at the outlook for global trade and supply chain issues. joining us from hong kong, this is tobias mayor, the ceo at dhl group. there is a little bit of optimism, cautious optimism as we get into talks between the u.s. and chinese leaders. are you optimistic we will see a robust outlook when it comes to global trade? tobias: it is important that we

do not have further geopolitical tensions. we've seen quite some hurdles to trade rising over the last years. it will clearly be a positive signal if we get more into a normal mode again. what weighs on the economy is still the hike of interest rates. that has nothing to do with geopolitics. just the way the path in the cycle we currently see. that is something that dampens our optimism a little bit when it comes to this year and early next year. as time progresses as we get into 2024, we hope to see easing of that constraint. haidi: where do you see competition across the asian region? there are domestic players when it comes to china and hong kong that are incredibly competitive and expanding. what is your strategy across this region? tobias: we have been in asia

for a long time. it is our second home for dhl. and we do see still dynamism unmatched in many other regions. you see also in china with all the challenges it faces, companies of considerable size that double revenue in a year. there are those places where we want to do more business, where we invest. it is e-commerce, we see a lot going on in renewable energy also in asia. these are places where we as dhl still grow. haidi: tobias, are you watching the big players? how do you position dhl's business in the regional sense where there are a lot of domestic competitors?

tobias: we have always chosen markets carefully. we are not in the chinese domestic parcel business. obviously a huge market, externally competitive as you mentioned. but that is not our focus. our focus as dhl is firstly to connect internationally, connects china to the world, the world to china. but also to facilitate trade in the region in asia-pacific. this is how we build our networks very much supporting our customers in international trade. also on the freight side, airfreight, ocean freight, we do a lot of warehousing for big manufacturers, for distribution companies. that is the factor, the international trade peace. this has a different dynamic when it comes to competition. vonnie: i have to ask about the

economies globally. you have a birdseye view from where you sit. we are waiting on cpi data from the u.s. which may show sticky inflation but there are plenty of other parts of the world where central banks are done and have been done for a long time. what are you seeing in terms of economic conditions. where is there a slowdown looming? tobias: for us at dhl it is three things. primarily that also affect our numbers. first of all we have a bit of the math of the covid hike in freight rates which came to record highs. you still see normalization going on. this is something we did expect. it comes as no surprise to anybody who closely watches our industry. second it is the impact of rates that you mentioned. it will take longer to really filter through. you see challenges in the real estate sector not only in china, also europe.

the construction sector being down quite a bit affects also other equipment manufacturers, investment, capital goods manufacturing. we do see still quite a bit of slowness in b2b segments. on the positive side we have quite a bit of exposure. consumers choosing online shopping. this is a trend we can say is reestablished. it was going before covid. it had a huge bump up during covid. afterwards the normalization there as well. now back on track, online really takes share from stationary retail and that is good for our business. >> where do you see china slowing to? how bad is the china slowdown from your point of view? >> we see changes in the trade pattern. that's going on, the export

import relationships to geographies like the u.s., there has been a significant change. but it is not all bad in the sense that the trade is gone. it is seeking different ways. we see china plus one, alternative locations to the focus on china as a manufacturing hub. we do see that continuing to take foot. many customers look for places in asean but also mexico and turkey. we see chinese manufacturing going to europe as well when it comes for instance to better electric vehicles. those shifts are happening. it is a new pattern for many manufacturing companies. we will follow those manufacturing companies as they are -- as their logistic services provider. haidi: express has been a contributor to earnings but

where are you going to invest more to be able to boost future earnings? on the other cited the equation where you seeing the cost pressures in the inflationary environment? week -- tobias: we continue to invest. as dhl we have always been a premium provider when it comes to the national express base. that is why i'm here in hong kong. we have significant capacity here and we continue to invest in other places to provide premium service. that is what customers expect. we want to invest the euro, the dollar required to do that. on the other hand, e-commerce for us is a big driver so we do seek exposure to new markets. we invested in turkey recently to get into the domestic parcel market there as well. we similarly do extensions in our supply chain business when it comes to fulfillment or warehousing. these are areas where we have a strong focus.

we continue to grow. that is important to us. you also asked about cost. obviously wage inflation is a big topic. we employ 600,000 people globally. we want to be a good employer to all of our folks. we do need to see how inflation goes in different markets, so they adjust accordingly. that is a driver in our cost base. other factors, we buy transportation that has moderated over the past months. vonnie: tobias, thank you for joining us today. key iphone assembler hawn hi -- hon hai is expected to post a fourth consecutive quarter of losses. let's bring in our tech editor in taipei. what will investors be looking for?

jane: hon hai group also known as foxconn is the biggest iphone maker. a lot of people look to their earnings to get more clues on how iphone sales might be doing, more than 50% of their sales come from apple. there will be a lot of focus to see how hon hai is looking at the fourth quarter and the full year and possibly any clues from what we can expect next year. the revenue numbers for the third quarter are already out. we are also looking for profit numbers this quarter. >> what are the expectations for the current quarter for foxconn? jane: for the fourth quarter this is the corner where iphone sales, it has the holiday season in it. generally quarter on quarter it goes up. but analysts averages are expecting something like $60

billion in sales for the fourth quarter. that will be down 6% year on year. we will have to wait to see. other things people will be focused on is whether there's any more clues on what's going on in china. as you know, a bulk of hon hai manufacturing is in china, china is a big market for apple and there have been challenges there because of the chinese government. backed agencies are banning people from importing iphones. state owned companies are telling people not to work. there have been challenges especially post huawei which launched its own phone that could take back some of the market share and let apple -- that it let apple take when he got banned from the u.s. and had to stop selling high-end phones for a while. haidi: coming up, how wall

street is profiting from car loans customers cannot repay. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> such an interesting ride for

the yen in today's trading session. we are hearing from the japanese officials at the moment, really talking about the government attempting to navigate the negative impact of yen weakness. we are hearing from the finance minister speaking in tokyo. excessive fx moves are undesirable, it is important moves are stable, reflecting fundamentals. he is continuing to say the government will take appropriate response when it comes to fx. but refrain from commenting on levels to avoid further impact. the government is attempting to ease the negative impact of a weak yen which was high at 151 and then some, close to the 152 level. ministers suzuki saying they will aim for a full year 2025 primary imbalance goal and speaking a little more about their aim as to the sort of --

seeking balance or stability when it comes to trading in the currency at the moment. well of course we are watching this key meeting between chinese president xi jinping set to meet with president biden face-to-face for the first time in a year. let's bring in bloomberg opinion columnist shuli ren. we have talked about how president xi likes to offer a better development model to the world pushing back on u.s. hegemony. you say that american exceptionalism is here to stay and he should have some humility. why? shuli: finishing 2023 we see how surprisingly resilient the u.s. economy is and how surprisingly fragile the chinese economy is. when we come into 2023 the momentum was all on china's side. there was economic reopening. what we found, 11 months later,

is there is no revenge consumption. worse than the u.s., there is this never arriving recession. despite the macro headwinds, the fed rate hikes, the u.s. economy is still strong. let me give concrete statistics. nine months after the u.s. reopening, u.s. retail sales were growing 17% year on year. in china it is barely 5%. i think like president xi jinping likes to talk about china's cultural heritage and humility is a very important aspect of chinese culture. i think you learn from the u.s. economy and study why america is so resilient. >> what do you think he wants out of this meeting? shuli: foreign business, u.s. business, coming back to china. last quarter, foreign investment

fell for the first time since 1998 when the record began. the consumer and business confidence in mainland china is weak. think about how china became prosperous. it was through exports. then these days if you go to shanghai and beijing there is no foreign investment left. he does want to attract u.s. businessmen back to china. haidi: what is the ultimate goal? xi has not given up on prevailing in this great power rivalry. shuli: based on media reports xi jinping thinks the u.s. is just going to crack down on china and suppress the chinese development model. he just thinks it is a comeback between ideologies. >> wonderful opinion column as always.

plenty more to come on daybreak asia. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> wall street lenders are profiting off of car loan customers.

charging as much as 30% interest. some regulators and lawmakers are seeing echoes of the subprime mortgage lenders at the heart of the 2008 financial crisis. for more on today's big take, let's bring in scott carpenter. it would not be the first time lenders tried to profit from the regular person on the street who wants to drive to work. what is happening in this case that makes it so pernicious? scott: what is happening is you are taking subprime auto loans, loans people take out to get cars, and people who have low credit, so they have a higher likelihood of default, those loans are being packaged into bonds and sold to investors. this is not new. what is new about this is there are more of them than there have been. arguably ever. also that they are built to withstand extremely high levels

of default. what we want to do is learn more about this and tracked down just one loan inside one of these bonds. we looked at one bond that was issued by santander consumer usa. they are a lender, they give loans to people with generally low credit scores. they take those loans, combined them into a bond, and they sell that to investors. we were able to find one person inside of a bond that they sold. his name was james siler in georgia. this bond was incredibly safe. it withstood more than one quarter of people defaulting on it. haidi: one of the quotes in the

story, it is structured to make money -- what are we seeing? scott: a default rate of 30% as far as we can tell, about 30%. and yet very few of these bonds default. they are known for being extraordinarily safe. as one person told us, they are structured as though they could withstand a nuclear blast. the take away is you can have up to half or more of people in some of these bonds defaulting which is not good and investors who buy the bonds which are basically supported by these loans will be fine. they will be fine and that is the way the bond is structured. it is expecting lots of people to default and it is fine if a lot of people default. to be sure, investors don't want people to default. their interests are aligned.

but if a lot of people do it is usually fine for the investors. haidi: scott carpenter with the big take which you can read on the terminal. let's take a look at what we are seeing when it comes to broader markets. a lot of range round trip -- range bound trading actions. we are seeing some nice gains here in the asian session. markets awaiting inflation figures to cement the idea that rates in the u.s. are peaking. benchmark seeing gains, modest ones when it comes to japan. we are seeing stronger gains in the korean market. the kospi up by 0.3%. we heard from the japanese finance minister talking about fx stability. ♪

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