>> good morning and welcome to "daybreak: australia." we are counting down to asia's major market opens. >> the top stories this hour -- a push to reinstate sam altman hits an impasse. the high-stakes negotiations. haidi: blackstone becomes a front runner to win $17 billion from signature bank. shery: plus, talks of alliance stumble ahead of january's taiwanese elections. haidi: first, sam altman and open in i. we are told negotiations are

underway but have hit a snag. it has been high drama over the weekend and now we are hearing this big push to see altman return to his role. is it looking likely? annabelle: it has been quite a roller coaster just in the last 72 hours or so, especially -- essentially a coup of sorts, a backlash in possible return. we understand sam altman himself is keen to be reinstated as ceo but it depends on dynamics and a lot of that comes down to the board. essentially the ousting on friday of sam altman seems to have taken a lot of people by surprise, including altman himself. key investors, like microsoft, only notified a few minutes before it went out. since it has happened, a lot of negotiations. that's what we're hearing from sources. high-stakes talks to bring him

back to the table. the microsoft ceo is said to be leading them and also extremely supportive of seeing sam altman back in the role. we are hearing negotiations are hitting roadblocks. shery: altman was fired on friday in the board said he wasn't always candid. what is at issue here and in the ongoing negotiations? annabelle: when it comes down to him in candid or not, if -- it seems to be around the commercialization of openai. that seems to be the key issue and there was a disagreement of sorts between sam altman and keyboard members that pushed for ai safety and commercialization. and which side people were lending on. essentially what is causing the talks, it comes down to the disagreements between different board members. for context, the openai board is

made up of six numbers, three from the company, three outside staff. there are number of people at openai that want sam altman back in the role. sam altman himself is open to returning but he wants to see governance changes, including the removal of some existing board members. that's what we are hearing from people close to the negotiations. essentially the board so far have agreed in principle to step down but haven't done so as yet. the directors apparently want to vet candidates for new directors good but there is a lot of contention coming down to the board and the outlook for openai. haidi: what potentially comes next? annabelle: it depends on the outcome of the negotiations. we know he is open to possibly returning to openai. he will continue to pursue other

projects. the push to commercialization he was spearheading, he is someone who has taken openai into the commercial world of ai over the course of the year, he is supposedly also looking at raising billions of dollars for a new venture according to people familiar with the matter. he's been on a fundraising drive in the middle east to try to raise funds for a new chip venture. this chip market for ai is dominated by nvidia, they control about 80% of the market. we were hearing that sam altman was looking to fund raise for a new venture to compete in that field. he could return to openai, he could continue to pursue those projects, he could do a bit of both. haidi: certainly we are watching for developments in this high-stakes and high drama story.

let's look at how this is potentially fading through to a bit of directionless trading for asian markets. a bit of a mixed open, the rally in the u.s. market fueled by best the fed will wrap up. a third straight e-gov gains. -- straight week of gains. certainly we are seeing when it comes to equity futures in australia, up. hong kong looking positive. mainland china signaling losses as well. watching for china opr, a pivotal week for chinese equities. we saw chinese equities falling even as global tears continue to gain. the aussie dollar on the back foot, little edging higher when it comes to the u.s. dollar, a

recovery rally after the greenback saw its worst we can months. really erasing 2023 gains. we are seeing the dollar on course for its biggest monthly drop in about a year after we saw the combination of softer eco-data and expectations the fed is reinforcing the new narrative. kiwi stocks down about one quarter 1%. dollar-yen a little softer. shery: we will continue to watch geopolitical tensions this week, especially from the middle east. the u.s. says a deal for hamas to release hostages taken during its october 7 attack on israel may be at its closest yet. qatar sees good progress being made. we know they have 200 hostages being held in gaza. what do we know at this point? >> we know that pretty much

everyone is saying it is as close as it has been. the deputy national security advisor said it is the closest. we are hearing very specific things. there would be a pause, likely several days, not a cease-fire, there is no one involved in the talks that supports the cease-fire. they are talking about 50 women and children that would be released among the 236 or so hostages that hamas has right now. hamas would like for that in exchange for the women and children in palestinian prisons and would like for israel to not survey a from the air during these pauses. i have a hard time imagining that would happen but that is what they are asking for. go ahead.

it's a little confusing, just yesterday, said it had lost contact with some of the groups that are holding the hostages. they are not in one big room, they have farmed them out to various groups associated with them. haidi: there was broad criticism over the rate of the l she for hospital -- al-shifa hospital. israel has released a video of what it says is a tunnel. ian: israel is making the case that it was a command-and-control center. i've seen the video, you are showing it. it looks like a tunnel, it has a little spiral staircase, it goes down about 55 meters and there is what is called a blast door at the end of it. it is something for sure. it's on the grounds of the hospital. it is also empty.

shery: coming up, australia breaks indian hearts by upsetting the host to claim the world cup cricket trophy. first, market analysis with investment. why investors should avoid building up on cash despite the volatility of the market. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the federal reserve will take the concerns down. we are not certain about whether inflation is on track to return to 2%. we are unsure about the length of lags and whether they are behind us or still to be fully realized.

>> we are likely at or near the peak of where we need to be in terms of having a sufficiently restricted stance of monetary policy that we can sustainably bring inflation down to 2%. i think the recent economic readings reinforce my view that that is probably correct. shery: looking at the week ahead, sticking with the fed, we will get the latest from the fomc minutes on tuesday. the latest uscp i print showed encouraging signs for inflation fighting efforts and markets are increasingly convinced the central bank has finished its hiking cycle. japan's report is expected to show cost has spiked again. we will also get inflation data from malaysia and vietnam. on thursday, we expect some key

rates unchanged. we will also get a rate decision from turkey. other economic data, loan rate decisions from commercial lenders in china, third quarter ddp data from thailand and singapore, and australia's westpac numbers. a handful of major companies are reporting this week, including nvidia. his quarterly results could still exceed skyhigh investor expectations things to strong demand for generative ai. that is your week ahead. haidi: our next guest says investors should be preparing for weakness because monetary policy and low employment -- unemployment is not uncommon.

you don't necessarily agree with the markets, is this too goldilocks? dana: yeah, i think through the course of the year we've had a lot of back-and-forth and sort of macro examination following more what is going on in the market. we start the year with everyone concerned about market volatility. it doesn't pan out. we have ai come in and save the day, a great first half, everyone moves over to the notion that we might stick the landing. a little bit of turmoil beginning in the second half. then some backup and soft landing kind of bulls. now we have a great november and we are right back where we were. the fundamentals, when we step back from what the market is doing and the fundamentals say, a lot of us know it is two years, at the beginning of a hiking cycle, that you see

tracks in the economy. which is not to say we won't stick the landing but betting on it is not necessarily the right thing either. haidi: what do you bet on in this kind of environment? you said it feels like the markets and investors are getting less of a premium for good news, for the gains we are seeing, and being more punish when we see down days. dana: i think we've seen a lot of that this year. it's been a little asymmetric in terms of, we have a lot of pricing in of high expectations. great returns, a great earnings season. gdp in the third quarter came in fantastic. you would expect a little more positivity in the market but those things were absorbed and we didn't see great outcomes in terms of the response out of big

tech through the earnings season . i think what it speaks to is somewhat of an expectation that things will go well. that being said, there is not a ton in the data we have to contend with for the rest of the year that suggests we should be concerned about impacts, notwithstanding that something can always happen that upsets the apple card. we are moving into a stretch of time through the course that markets tend to do better. shery: had yeeut gowth and -- haidi: how do you feel about growth in rate sensitive stocks? dana: the prevailing wisdom is as interest rates increase, they have to be discounting future cash flows at a higher rate. i don't know we've seen that play out. we have an interesting dichotomy where large growth companies have continued to do really well. we do have value, lower-priced

docs outperform but that has been wiped away. small growth hasn't performed as well. longer returns from small growth companies have been punished. probably to a certain extent with the thought that they cannot cash fund. these larger growth companies can. we've seen that dichotomy where it hasn't just been value versus growth, it's been large growth versus small growth. small caps have suffered tremendously through the year and there are valuations now. small growth in general tends to be not great long-term relative to small value. haidi: is the earnings recession over? you look at outperformer's, does it give you optimism going into the holidays or do you think the u.s. consumer is only kind of going to continue diminishing

and strength from here? dana: we saw a big increase in spending and the consumer really coming out through the course of this year, especially over the summer. i think to a certain extent, expecting some pullback, especially given we see consumer confidence is taking a dip. inflation is biting. we saw a nice trend that says things are looking like they are settling down at least for now. it doesn't change the fact we've already have these price increases and for the average consumer it is a cause for concern. i do think to expect a little bit of pullback is probably to be expected. personal consumption being 70% of gdp, i think it will be closely watched in terms of what to expect from the market going forward. if the consumer should falter in any significant way, it raises concerns about where the economy is in terms of the cracked we

have been talking about. haidi: going into next year, where do your expectations fall when it comes to what we get from the fed? are you in the camp where you see rate cuts coming rapidly? dana: not if employment holds up. i don't think the fed really wants to cut rates anytime soon. they will be data driven, watching what is going on with the market. the expectation that we might move right into rate cuts earlier -- one thing to be said is right because tend to come six to eight months after the end of the cycle, so it's not that long to wait for rate cuts anyway. if we are talking about january or early in the year, i would say probably not unless there is a shock to the market that changes things. we've seen some crocks in unemployment. not enough that the fed will start to want to cut rates.

i think we can rest easy on additional rate hikes. haidi: dana, always great to chat with you. around of of the stories you need to get your day going on daybreak, you can get the news on the industries and assets you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: bloomberg has learned that blackstone is the front runner to win a portfolio of companies from signature bank. su, federal regulators are looking at $17 billion of debt. su: a pretty big amount and the

total amount that regulators seized when signature failed is about twice that, or 33 billion. it is the federal regulators job to begin packaging and selling these loans. to that and, they've been trying to find the best bidder. bloomberg has learned from people close to the matter that the lead bidder for a portfolio of roughly 17 billion in commercial property loans is now blackstone. sources say the fdic officials are in the final stages of hammering out the deal and also that blackstone is said to be in talks to partner with roy alto -- rialto capital to service the loans. there's been no comment.

people close to the matter are telling us to realize such deals can be very complex, and while regulators are still hammering out the final numbers and terms of the deal with blackstone, we understand the exact terms are not final and anything can happen in the final stages of this kind of deal. another bidder could emerge to top luxembourg right now it appears a big portion of the loans trying to be offloaded, a $17 billion portfolio, is in the final stages and blackstone appears to be the front runner. haidi: given the decline in commercial real estate values, how closely watched is this deal? su: very closely watched. this is a bidding process that has lured in some of the top financial firms, not just blackstone but starwood capital, brookfield. these are major names in the business.

it's happening at a time when commercial real estate, particularly in new york city and other major u.s. cities is under pressure. this as interest rates have been on the rise. it's also stalling out transactions. there is a lot of interest in just how big or how successful this offloading of the loans can be and the prices they bring in. it's important to point out that signature had been a big lender to apartment landlords in the new york city area and part of the loans they dealt with went to rent stabilized or rent controlled units. our sources tell us these rent-controlled and stabilized units are not part of the package blackstone is dealing with. nonetheless, how these loans are successfully or not successfully offloaded gives those in the real estate industry good insight into what the market

will bear right now. haidi: su with the latest. we have learned that citigroup will start around of job cuts as soon as monday, part of the first wave of an overhaul in simplifying the lender and getting rid of -- getting rid of five layers of management. citigroup cut 7000 positions in the first nine months of this year. the financial review has reported almost 20 private wealth employers departed from morgan stanley on friday. they reportedly oversaw some $3 billion in total assets. reports said they were set to join a rival firm. u.s. lawmakers calling on elon musk to retract his backing for antisemitic comments on x.

some defended him, saying while he wasn't perfect, the world is a better place because of him. efforts in taiwan's opposition hit a snag as there is haggling over who should be their nominee. we have that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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releasing partial vote counts in the next few hours after polls closed in sunday's presidential runoff. the winner will have to grapple with triple digit inflation and a plummeting currency as the economy lurches into its sixth recession in a decade. our bureau chief joins us. we have seen the leading candidates lean toward more centrist positions, coming closer to the runoff. is this correct, and what would it mean for economic policy? patrick: good evening. argentina is at an inflection point with two very different presidential candidates. as you mentioned, both have run to the center to capture swing votes in this definitive runoff vote, but the policy proposals could not be more different. one is proposing to switch the currency from the argentine peso

to the u.s. dollar, while the other is considering more gradual policy steps including staying with the peso. on foreign policy, one is considering ending diplomatic ties with china and resilience, while the other would like to deepen ties with those countries. one wants to deepen relations with israel and the united states. they are very different candidates and the surprise result could shock markets monday and tuesday. haidi: profoundly different candidates and a polarized vote. what are we expecting in terms of the market reaction to each scenario? patrick: in this round, argentina has a national holiday on monday, so we will see what is called the global bonds, or argentina sovereign bonds, those will have a reaction.

into tonight argentina time and tomorrow morning. however, argentina's currency because of the national holiday with the banks closed, probably won't react until tuesday morning. we really need to see -- we will have market reaction in steps. the first major reaction will be through the global bonds over tonight. shery: we have mentioned some of the challenges the argentinian economy faces, inflation and high poverty. what will the next president face as a priority when it comes to stabilizing that economy? patrick: the number one priority for the next president will be to bring down triple digit inflation, but they are inheriting a slew of titanic challenges. argentina has a $43 billion agreement with the international monetary fund and the government needs to start repaying

bondholders, that starts next year as well. the payments will rack up next year and the president will also have to do a major fiscal adjustment/spending and meet the imf agreement that has already gone off the rails. from a very delicate social situation with 40% of argentines living in pollock -- in poverty, to the bondholders and the imf, it is a full plate facing the next president. shery: it's been interesting to see the regional reaction to the elections in argentina. the brazilian president backing one of the candidates for talk to us about the battles in latin america. patrick: part of the battle is the brazilian president since some of his own advisors to work on a campaign.

we are seeing this regional shift. we saw in recent years more left-leaning leaders in chile and columbia and brazil, but argentina would be a shift to the right in the region among the major countries. it is this battle between left and right but also i think anti-incumbents. argentina, through the region, maybe more unifying. we are seeing voters are fed up, whether from the pandemic or economic stagnation, with current governments and they often get voted out of office. what we are seeing is the left is doing everything it can in the region to help sustain the ruling government, whereas there is a lot of expectation that the other side has had a good election tonight. shery: you can also turn to your

bloomberg for more on argentina's elections. you can get commentary and analysis from our expert editors. haidi: let's get some more when it comes to political headlines. taiwan's opposition alliance for the upcoming presidential election has come undone. the main opposition parties that favor more engagement with mainland china, were unable to agree on a joint candidate for president after announcing an alliance last week. for more, stephen engle joins us. what now for the opposition? stephen: more drama in the taiwan presidential election. it is known to have a bit of drama and we might have an 11th hour decision sometime this week. keep in mind, later this friday is the deadline for candidates to officially declare their ticket. if the alliance has fallen through, it will absolutely make

it a critical period, the next five days, to see whether the opposition, the main opposition candidates, you see between the former president and the party chairman, i'm talking about the two main opposition presidential candidates, who essentially agreed to try to form an alliance midweek last week to beat the incumbent vice president who is running for president for the more independence leading party. there i am in taipei, we were talking about his presidential candidate. they want better engagement with mainland china. all the candidates, opposition candidates, have told me or my colleagues that the main goal needs to be unseating the more

pro-independence party. if that means an alliance or joint ticket, that's all the better. this weekend, they couldn't decide which man would be top of the ticket. that's where they are right now. he is running third in the polls right now and is saying he will continue to fight to the end as a candidate. the knt said it will continue to negotiate with the tpp until the deadline on friday. we are all on tenterhooks to see if they can form an alliance for the election on january 14. a key election for taiwan. shery: i can't imagine investors liking this uncertainty viewed what are we expecting from the market reaction? stephen: i can point to last

week. all five days of last week, the taiex was up. the market gained about 3%. the taiwan dollar up against the u.s. dollar all five days last week as this alliance started taking form, which is now in disarray. the taiwan dollar gaining about 1.5% against the u.s. dollar, up every day, the taiex up every day. now it is in disarray. are we going to see some retreating of the taiex and taiwan dollar? we will have to see. it is something that will be a little bit volatile ahead of the friday deadline. shery: stephen engle joining us from hong kong. next, the outlook for oil markets and why opec-plus cuts could extend through march. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: traders boosting bets that opec and its allies will work to counteract the plunge in oil prices over the past four weeks. saudi arabia and russia have already pledged to keep additional output curbs in place until the end of the year. let's bring in our guest. great to have you with us.

what are you seeing from opec-plus right now? we are expecting them to meet at the end of the month. goldman sachs say they may reduce or act to support prices but at the same time we've seen russian output continue to flow. tamar: big in person meeting, last two meetings have been virtual. that increases the chance there could be more of a bigger decision coming out in terms of potentially deepening the production cuts. our base case is they roll over until q1 next year. but there is a risk that they deepen the cuts. we think they will be loath to do that in an environment with so much geopolitical uncertainty. we know the saudi energy minister is very much against oil speculators. there are a lot of short bets in the market right now despite all of the uncertainties could the fundamental picture is weakening

but not that bad. the market sentiment and psychology is a lot worse and there is a chance that saudi arabia wants to vehemently defend a floor and get ahead of demand issues. haidi: we haven't seen a lot of geopolitical upside oil prices for -- prices. shery: russia and iran, what impact they have realistically? tamar: we've seen from the biden administration in recent days, they've increased rhetoric on iranian and russian oil sanctions for at the same time, they have taken credit for the recent attenuation in oil prices, specifically with lower gasoline prices at the pump. they are not taking their eye off of that, especially going into an election year. at the same time, i think as these countries, russia and iran

specifically, have had more time trading oil under sanctions, they've gotten better at that. not just in the form of knowing how to deal with shifts in turn -- in terms of turning off transponders, the western shipping and insurance market, but increasingly a lot of the trade for oil is taking place outside the dollar system. even if the u.s. administration does go after with greater force iranian and russian oil, we think it's only going to be a little bit effective at the margin and not really material for price on a standalone basis unless there's some thing else going on. that itself will not be terribly bullish for prices. shery: how strong have technical factors been in accelerating losses for prices? tamar: hugely effective. we've seen the oil markets overshoot both to the upside and

downside. as i said before, the fundamental outlook is deteriorating, slow down in some major demand centers. at the same time, demand is good, not as bad as would be implied by the recent slide. we've got a lot of quantitative program traders treating into momentum. ordinary individual investors, we like to buy low and sell high and quantitative traders basically do the opposite, they sell into weakness and buy into strength and that exacerbates him moves. i think they are -- exacerbates moves. i think they are testing the floor. will saudi arabia be forced to intervene if they can't get consensus from opec to defend a floor? we have seen they are willing to go at it alone and at one point

do they continue to do that? or do they force saudi's hand to capitalize on revenues? haidi: tell us more about the demand -- shery: tell us more about the demand outlook. we are expanding more holiday travel to lead to some demand. at the same time because of fuel efficiency when it comes to energy markets and gasoline, the upside might not be as pronounced. tamar: seasonally, this is a weak time for oil, demand is a little lower and supply a bit higher. that is sort of what we've been looking at. gasoline demand in the u.s. has come down, and in china as well. europe, definitely has come down in terms of diesel and everything else. we are not looking for it to decline further, we are seeing stabilization at these levels,

but we are not seeing a material boost into the holiday season. shery: how are you factoring in ev penetration in your calculations for energy prices from here? tamar: gasoline or transportation is a huge part of the oil demand story. even in a market where electric vehicles increase in penetration, there are a lot of questions about how much more ev's can penetrate on a near term in the u.s. could we've seen a lot of issues with some of the other, apart from tesla, big tv producers. tesla on a standalone basis. it is an ev but also an experience. i don't know that some of the other electric vehicles have been as successful. i think even in an environment where ev's do continue to

penetrate, you have other sources of demand for oil that will not be easily displaced, such as jet fuel, heavy transportation, diesel, shipping, etc.. at the same time you also have petrochemical and manufacturing. you talk about the slowdown in china, there are sectors of their economy -- manufacturing has been holding up pretty well. that's why we are not seeing accepting much more downside in terms of chinese demand. it is precarious and we are watching closely. shery: how do u.s. energy producers fit into this global narrative at a time when we continue to see oil prices falling into do you expect more consolidation in the industry? tamar: we expect more consolidation definitely. u.s. production as a whole has been surprising to the upside this year. there's been a lot of fancy words band-aid about in the

markets in terms of peak shale and you can have peaks but that doesn't mean that supply falls off a cliff. it can reach a peak and stay at high levels for a period of time which is what we think will happen in terms of oil demand and reduction in terms of the u.s. it can stay at a high level, it might come down a little bit, but will remain very relevant. if you look at non-opec supply growth, of which the u.s. is one of the biggest components, that alone is meeting global demand growth. getting back to the rest of your question about u.s. consolidation, we have seen from recent deals the markets really pushing companies to take it vantage of scale and -- advantage of scale and bring down cost per barrel. trying to be the last man standing. from that perspective we think

there has to be more consolidation in the mid-level and bigger companies have already made acquisitions and they can come back to the market as well. in the u.s., there are only a handful of u.s. refineries and they refine 18 million barrels per day. production for the u.s. on an oil basis is 12 and there are 50, 100, a million companies good the numbers don't make sense. we've been calling for consolidation a long time. we've had some motivated sellers recently but i think the market is really pushing these companies to say if you want to survive and be the last barrel standing in an environment where there are real questions about terminal value for oil, you got to consolidate. shery: how does the weakening of the u.s. dollar factor into the

calculations of u.s. energy producers as well as refiners, not to mention the fact that oil is priced in u.s. dollars? tamar: we've historically talked about the inverse relationship between the u.s. dollar and oil prices. to some extent i think that relationship is going to break down a little bit over time. not disconnect entirely, but as i mentioned earlier, there is more and more trade for oil outside the u.s. dollar and we expect that trend will continue. you look at countries like china and russia and iran and india, they are all trading, mecca producers and demand centers for oil trading outside the u.s. dollar. we see there is huge interest in emerging markets in latin america, southeast asia to do the same thing. it is easier for them to trade

in their own currency. they remove transaction costs. it is a keeper for them. i think that will happen more and more. that will lead to a bit of a disconnect between the inverse correlation. shery: great to have your thoughts. we were talking about the weakness of the u.s. dollar, that has supported some of those asian currencies. haidi: so much of the fed expectation rate pricing, putting the greenback on the defensive. you talked about that earlier. it's having a big effect when it comes to trading players we are watching across the region. look at the aussie dollar, mostly unchanged, flat at the moment. but it surged last week. pretty much the same for the kiwi, maybe a little more strength for the kiwi dollar.

also the weakness in the yen and the weakness in the dollar has given a breather to the yen, the world's worst performing g10 currency this year. we have the opr rate today and last week was so pivotal when it comes to what we are watching on the geopolitical side for the yuan. more ahead on daybreak. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: a stroll's cricket team has broken indian hearts, winning the world cup final in front of 130,000 fans, including the indian prime minister. it is a sport that means so much to their country. paul: very much so, and heartbreak sums it up for ind.ty followed by cricket and then cricket and cricket. the board of control for cricket, pretty much runs the global game these days, the indian premier league, $6.2 billion is what it is worth. attracts an audience of 700 million people. the scale of forget in india is difficult to grasp outside of the country. we have world cup on home soil, 130,000 fans in that stadium, but by the end silence as the game turned australia's way.

six world cups for australia now, extending the record. i am sure none of this means any thing to you. [laughter] this match, the stadium, usually major ever structure doesn't get named for a major politician until after they are dead. politicians love to revel in sporting glory especially when your name is on the stadium but in this case not happening. there was ticketing chaos ahead of this so there will be some questions asked about them hosting the olympics. haidi: i got that it was a big deal. that is it for "daybreak: australia." ♪