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>> good morning an welcome to daybreak europe. let's goat the top stories. a four-day pause between israel an ha begins. 150 prisoners due to be released as par of the deal. -- part of the deal. meanwhile barclays are planning cost cuts on the line. let's gate job check. it is the day after franks thanksgiving. not just in the united states but around the world right here in europe is where we begin. we do actually look that the futures trade, 50 futures down about .1 of one percent. you are seeing some underperformance. futures in the u.s., again,

very, very muted. i'm going to call that absolutely unchanged here. it's not moving much. you start to see underperformance which tells me perhaps there's some risk taking being pulled back. when you look at the bond story specifically, you are going to star to see a little bit more movement that seems to be where the action is pushing the yields higher on the front end. 494, hired by about four basis points. hired by five basis points. how much of that is indicative of perhaps caution ahead of the weekend we're going to get in terms of some of the moptary speak that we might get next week. stick around for that story. more analysis ahead meanwhile as we start to see the yields higher, the dollar does not fall. 109 is where we are on that currency pair. brent screwed no exception. trading -- virtually unchanged

at the moment with an 81 handle. that's going to be what we watch in terms of the latest geo apply cal stories. a four-day pause in fighting between israel and hamas is underway. it sets the stage for the exchange of dozens of hostages in return for palestinians imprisoned. let's go to paul wall lambs paul, really a tense and dire situation. it's been a little over an hour since these truths appear this deal kicked off. what is the latest out of gaza. >> so yes, as you say this truce the first major lull in fighting since the war began has now begun. it's meant to hold until thursday. we will see a absolutely fault fighting in the gaza strip as well as hamas releasing 50

hostages. israel will release 150 jailed pal palestiniansful all -- palestinians. and they want to get more aid get into the gaza strip. on the ground we've seen what from tv footage and from other sources more palestinians coming out on the the streets coming out of the shelters. taking advantage of the bit of respite they're getting for the first time since the war started. it does seem like more aid trucks are moving into gaza from the rougher -- over the rougher crossing with eject. >> and paul, as we get that update from you, we are looking at live pictures at the moment coming out of southern israel. what you're seeing right now is the gaza skyline. you talked a little bit about the fact that it's meant to be a four-day pause, a four-day

truce. what is the likelihood this lasts all four days? >> that is something that a lot of people are worried about such as the relations between israel and hamas. that it won't take much for the truce to break down. however, for the moment both sides are implying that they are going adeer to this packet and that we will see it holding for four days. israel has made it very, very clear that as soon as the truce is over, the war begins again. israel is refrained and hamas as well are refraining from calling this a cease-fire. they think it will only serve hamas an allow it to regroup. so the war won't continue on tuesday. arab nations had -- expressed

happy to this truce could be the beginning of the end and maybe lead to snag eventually results in a comprehensive peace. but that's certainly not the message that israel is giving out at the moment. >> sit a tense situation not just for israel and the gaza citizens but a lot of the regional powers as well. we are a financial network. i have to ask you what, happens from tuesday? what happens in terms of the market reaction? it feels like the no-brainer to talk about oil and perhaps any potential moves on iranian output is there more to it, though? >> we'll have to see what happens on tuesday. and just how extensive the fighting is when -- when it begins some of far israel has concentrated its ground offensive. however, it's been saying and

signaling to the world that it is going to turn its attention to the south where a lot of hamas commanders are fled to. and it may put troops on the ground then. i think that would be a sign of escalation if it did that. and that is something that markets might react to. over this month, the premium in global markets if you look at assets leak gold and oil, it's pretty much that premium has evaporated because trade is increasingly optimist take that this war will be confined to gaza. and then it won't become a full-on regional conflagration where hezbollah launching a major assault on israel. if that changes, however if israel up it is and know gaza further by sending the forces into the south, we could see, you know, groups like hezbollah, the hath wrist and yemen upping the ante and doing more to attack israel. so that's something that the markets will be doing and

watching for closely >> it's certainly of course, something that failed in compared the humanitarian organization. we thank you for your up-day. reporting out of dubai. the first announced tick by tick update on the situation over in gaza and the nitty gritty of the detail over on our daybreak page. if you are a terminal subscriber, all you do is type in dayb go. a lot of comments being made about how to progress. just give it the very, very light volume. you've got take this market trade with a gigantic grain of salt. we will agree. lye let's go to her to get the narrative out of that part of the world. what are you seeing? aavril: absolutely. it looks like asia stocks are going end the week on a negative

note on the asia pacific about .10 of a percent lower. the key drag is coming from the hon sing. we're seeing the any kay a lit of an outlier. it's worth noting that we've got japan inflation data. and it shows us that core c.p.i. excluding fresh food accelerated for four monthses. there are those concerns about what this means for the bank of japan even though that figure came in lower than expected. there's that coming for the j.g.b. futures. i want to zoom in on the chinese stocks. let's take a look that the next page. you know that bit of information, we got about how china could soon take that unprecedented move of allowing unsecure short-term loans all in

effort for finding support for some of these builders. that's not being receive very well by the markets. and m live contributors raise good point here is that the keyword here is unsecure because these developers typically need to give up collateral for take on any loads in loan in the form of land or assets. it looks like the sector is being transferred to the balance sheet this is wry you see the chinese bangs under pressure today. they are slumping about 2%. let's take a look at this next shot because it shows you how these chinese lenders are being cautious give given their shrinking margins as well as how the loans have been piling up. this is loans. at the end of september, they turned negative for the first time on record on an annual

basis some of really underscoring the concerns for the lenders if they have to take on this project of funding for chinese property developers. >> certainly something we'll be watching very, very closely. the big question is what is the read into the rest of the world? is it the same that we got 15 years ago? we thank you so much for that story. sit a very light trading day given the day between the thanks giving tan weekend over in the united states. but let me put a few things on your radar. german g.d.p., the quarter of a quarter numbers coming in at the the of the hour. 7:00 a.m. uk time you are expected to see a little bit of a pullback. eight to 10% of a climb. we are going to get the german ifo. that coming up at about 9:00 a.m.

the expectation is expected to be a better rating. 89.5. i guess any good news even by a small margin as that we will take 9:00 a.m. uk time in the united states, sit black friday. love for a loft the economists around the world to look at this as a litmus test or a little bit of an early indicator especially at a time when we're asking is inflation going to be biting the consumer and finally showing up? black friday and the numbers we get next week will be an easy indication as is the u.s. story. on the other side we've got manufacturing story. we know manufacturing is a much smaller part of the economy. all of that coming up on the days agenda in the meantime, coming up on this program, we go to south africa

their central bank has kept the rates unchanged. we're going to get the latest from the region. stick with us. this is bloomberg.

♪ >> what we now have is an implementation plan on the table that has six different invasement areas which would include electricity infrastructure green energy vehicles, skills development, municipal finances and the special category for transition in the province which we know is currently heavily dependant on coal. i think what is interesting about this plan is the way in which we've tried to enshrine the principles of justice in the plan. now, you know, our climate

commission did a lot of work, the year before last on the question of what exactly is a just transition framework. and they came up with three criteria. people must be consulted. they must be involved in the project. and the projects must help with overall socio economic development. >> south africa's environment barbara crecry on developed countries on her government's energy plan. the central bank has kept their central bank rates unchanged. odrira joins us. if you are still worried about the pressures, why take a

pause? >> well, kriti, the central bank governor says that the rate is very restrictive currently. it takes into account the current inflation outlook and inflation expectations. so he's just saying that the rate as is takes into account everything. and we're confident that it is under control by the fact that we have fears and this is because the energy crisis that south africa has been going through. however, on the upside we've seen the economy going to recover. from a protective .07% which could be a positive indication and talking to bloomberg economies said that this could be the beginning of rate hike pause. and we could be ushering a new season maybe next year or towards the end of next year. >> we've seen the market moves

and even though it's a lightly liquid mark to watch for sure. but let's talk about rwanda as well. their central bank expecting to hold rates. is it the same narrative there? >> well, yes, they held a rate yesterday at 7.5, and the central bank governor says it's because inflation is beginning to ease in the second quarter of the year we had inflation at 15.2% and in the third quarter it dropped to 12.7%. this is because the government has aggressively invested in agriculture. we've seen the season end of agriculture. the central bank said that the weather forecast is positive. they held the rate because it believes if kit hold and bring down inflation to 2% to 8% and in 2024 they're looking for 6.8%. >> it's going to be a different

die unanimous toke see how they actually follow or don't follow the leads of the federal reserve. thank you so much. meanwhile let's talk about oil as well. they're holding on to their decline. this comes after a meeting of opec plus was delayed. they moved online instead of on person. saudi arabia are in dispute with some of the africa members of the cuts to their output. andrew, it's a really interesting dynamic here. walk us through the thinking here. why was this decision taken in the first place? >> hi, kriti. the bank ground this dates back to june at which point saudis were asking african nations mainly and golden and nigeria to seploer output quotas to next

year. and that's because in recent years, the africa countries have often struggled to meet quotas because of aging oil fields, operational disruption. now, they weren't too keen on accepting those. and there was an external order to them. and apparently that's being finished recently. the die jeerians aren't too happy. they're contesting the audit. they don't want to be locked in to lower production levels next year. so that's kind of the background to why it's been delayed. the move online i don't think is overly significant that's to do with the fact that november the 30 is also the first day of the cop 28 conference in the u.a.e. it's a reflection of the fact that it's going to be more difficult for everyone to be in it on that day. >> it's something that it will

move the oil markets. it really matters when it comes to the quotas. it's more of a function of panic. we thank you so much for that update this morning. coming up, we switch gears quite literally. why pagani is calling on chinese expertise it as explores new technology. our exclusive interview with the company's founder coming up next. this is bloomberg.

♪ >> welcome back to daybreak europe. italian superscar maker, pagani says expertise can be a help for your mean mean brands. yvonn, mann asked him how their latest model has been received. >> the feedback has been -- has been very positive.

i would say when you -- after 10 years it's 12 years of the previous car when you present a new one. there's always a bit of a moment when you need to focus on the new design and on the new future features of the car. it has so many details, you have to spend a lot of time to read them to study them. you have to spend time be the car to understand it. because we did the same at home about the designing and finding the right thing. so i believe it's not -- it's not been fully understood. we know that this is -- it takes time. it's like a friendship. it's like a love relationship. >> i'm curious get your take on -- on chinese auto brands now. e.v. makers that have become the

leading car brands domestically and they're heading and ebbs anding in europe as well. are you seeing that, you know, sort o shift right now where, you know, customers are looking at chinese auto brands in a much different way. >> effectively, in the niche of the electric market that is present in europe, i believe that china is ready. the car prices are even cheaper than european brands. and therefore the producers of european cars need put great effort to try to remain in this specific market and stay competitive. >> coming from mr. pagani, i think that means a lot. >> let's talk about the e.b. sort of trends that we're seeing right now. you're starting to see bam lore guinea. does that make pagani consider about going electrification?

>> we -- to answer to this, we've always been a economy interested in this. innovation for us at the beginning was find the -- the new materials like the carbon fire, the composite materials, to study how to bailed card with those performance in that way. when it comes to electrification, is it something we're looking after. we've start add team back in 2018 that has been working on let's say future platforms. my father is part of the team. also with my brother leonardo. we are very scene to understand what's possible or not in the future. so we are starting very closely with our team and walls our technical partners, which our number one is mercedes benz.

what we like to see is that we will be ready when -- when we have tall things in place. >> founder speak exclusively to bloomberg. we do have sombrousing inn news. it does look like terry has set to drop out of the taiwanese presidential race. this is of course, the billion nair founder. and they surprise a lot of the chips needed for apple smart phones. here's the politics. he's been pursuing this for about a year in terms of being the president of tie watch. he's also been quite vocal about being kind of the liaison between china and the united states when it comes to that business decision. he, however has lost quite a bit

of momentum. he faced several opts can in cluing a probe on suspicious of offering it in exchange for significants as well. this comes out on top of the surprise investigation into fox con and remember, this is not official yet. we're not seeing any major moves, of course, he still has until 5:30 local time to give him about 30 hours from right now. coming up, we're going to dive into some of the fiscal issues over in germany. stick with us. this is bloomberg.

kriti: when you look at the market reaction, you are not seeing mych reaction.

-- nasdaq features have not moved. you talk about the front end of the curve and the u.s. treasury market. take a look at what the two-year yield is doing. . you would think that would be some kind of tailwind. euro-dollar's are what we have our ion -- our eye on. brent crude trading at 81.

let's get to some of our major pictures. germany, net borrowing for a fourth consecutive year. this comes after the government was forced into a radical budget overall. joining -- me now is zoe. this is a collocated story. what happens next. -- this is a complicated story, what happens next? zoe: they will institute a debt break. this is a problem for the -- fiscal hawk. this was one of the things that was top on the list. 2024 is where it gets really complicated. there were supposed to be passing the 2024 budget.

now they cannot do because they have to go back to the drawing board and fix other issues. the cause additional routing -- the constitutional ruling has been found to be in breach of the constitution. either, they do not spend the money. or, for the social democrats -- the second option, let's pause the debt break for another year after trey 24. the finances not want to do that. you can only pause that if there are special circumstances. unbelievable inflation.

next year the economy is suspected to grow and inflation will be closer to normal. that will face another quarter challenge. it does not quite work. that is -- they go to the opposition and say, what does -- what can we put in the constitution, so that we don't have this issue. the issue here is, you have to find a compromise. the opposition is the one who brought that in the first place. really, it is a very tricky situation. there is no easy fix. we are not the u.s. might go to

the last minute. that would be december 31l. that is on the budget has to be decided. kriti: it feels like they really put the hammer down in that united states. talk to us about the exceptions to these rules. talk about the fact that we are getting both edp -- gdp and e.f.o. zoe: gdp, tickets revised repeatedly. instead of contraction, if they have a zero number, stagnation is good news.

that does not look that likely this time. it is indicating that germany is actually in a recession. overall the year, there is a contraction. that is where the equal -- that is where the e phone number comes in. -- the e.f.o. number. economists tell us those numbers are going to show an uptick. that is good news. they're said to be several upticks next year. the e.f.o. it is said to have

upticks next year. kriti: we will certainly see. zoe schneeweiss, joining us from bloomberg news. those words that zoe just mentioned, there is some pushback as well. the governor from the bank of france said the ecb will not be raising rates again. rates will gradually come down again, "but we are not there yet." the ecb may have to raise rates again.

barclays is working on a cost-cutting plan. 2000 jobs are potentially on the line in a plan they are working on. recovering with the central banks a lot. what are the details of the report? zoe: things are slowing. this is not the work -- lizzy: things are slowing. this not the work people signed up for. in terms of where the ax will fall, it is reported known as bx, the irony is, we are not part of the set up in 2017. now, they can be the victim of

the efficiency curse. kriti: why such a big push now? lizzy: down 26% since the takeover from two years ago. if you compare that to european rivals, deutsche bank has not moved as much, hsbc is actually up. this is a turnaround for investors, and building a new strategy in february. they have turned to strategy advisors to hash out a plan to boost the share price. -- kriti: i love the comparison to

other banks and other places in europe. elon musk says there are operations held up in sweden that are insane. garbage collectors and electricians are refusing to do tasks as there is a strike and some port of car workers. tesla's can take to the road with license place -- plates specifically signed. there is a mistake by traders today being blamed for an error that could lead to a slump in finished energy prices.

a lot of energy consumption was offered for sale at an hourly auction. we are joined by steogeb === -- stephen stapczynski. >> without much being offered on the market, it created -- compared to the average price of 35 euros. you can see, this is a huge drop. it was all in error, mistake. this company does not have that

much power and supply. now, the company is scrambling to fix the situation. kriti: if it is currently negative, what does that currently look like. stephen: if just a single day is impacted, it could be considered negligible. basically, the people you buy electricity from. it is not like they are buying or receiving. not like the -- they are being paid for that. that being said, the power retailers may not see that much impact. the company that manages a greater said they will intervene to try to soak up that jump in power supply and balancing

things. while power prices are very negative, you can see things bounce back to normal as a day goes on. there will not be any intraday trading between finland and the neighbors. perhaps that is a blunder, the impact on the consumer is likely pretty small. kriti: if you look at some of the analyst calls, today's session, it could be a little messy but things should be fine going into next week. thank you so much, stephen stapczynski. a reliable government called after a dutch lawmaker scored a victory in elections. making about 50% of the stock market says a consistent long-term policy is essential to

ensure a stable business environment for the tech industry such as asml, rely heavily on talent from abroad. in the meantime, a potential acquisition from adnoc, from bsff, they could value the target at more than -- basf, which could value the target at more than -- we will look at the by of inflation, coming up next. sick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

kriti: welcome back to "daybreak arab. -- " daybreak europe.'' consumer confidence rose in u.k. about six points. does that mean that -- shopping malls? we're joined onset, how big of a deal is black friday here? >> they think you'll actually be weaker than last year. around 5.6 billion pounds compared to last year, down by

about .25. it is quite uncertain how it will shape up. kriti: in terms of how it will shape up, it is interesting. from a macro perspective, we are thinking about inflationary concerns and cost-of-living prices. we did not see that dent in the consumer, necessarily still. >> the u.s. consumer has really defied gravity. i'm a bit more worried about next year versus this year. that has not gone away, the cost of living. you have had difficulty with interest rates and the worry is that the labor market, furniture as well, i think christmas will be ok. kriti: even if you do not start

deceit resilience, a lot of holiday shopping -- disposable income. andrea: a lot of character degrees have suffered, we have to spend more on essentials, you have to spend less on things like essentials. really, we are spending more than saving at the moment. kriti: let's talk about this from a retailers perspective. jcpenney, and the united states. there has been odds defined from bankruptcies. he basically said, they are not

actually hiking prices this time around. even though, in 2022, prices are famously sticky. do see another round of inflation, this holiday season. andrea: it is actually pretty easy, walmart talking about going into inflation. all that has gone away. rates have gone down. chinese factories are gutted to get work so they're trying to offer the best deals. i don't think we will see anymore inflation in nonfood items. it really depends on what the pound does. this the pound weakened against the dollar. -- does the pound weakened

against the dollar? kriti: it's interesting you mention that, we have seen some really -- i would say controversial strength. a lot of eyebrows raised by the currency rate. sometimes the pound is more of a function of the dollar -- [laughs] -- i will ask you about that, -- i will not ask you about that. there are strengths and pressures, the gifts being bought, whatever rich people do. andrea: this simply comfortable have probably accelerated. we are not seeing a turnaround. if you are a luxury group, he

really just depends. kriti: i certainly know what is on my christmas list. andrea felsted, next time you're on, we will ask you. plenty more on the market, we will put more on your radar. this is bloomberg. ♪

kriti: welcome back. we will take you a tour around the world. only to end back or restarted, there is a really interesting dynamic at play, when you look at the japanese inflationary story. simply in terms of the

readthrough as well. for about two decades now, japan is on a massive inflation problem because of emma graphics and there -- because of their demographic and difficulties with growth. take a look at what the inflation dynamic looks like. it actually follows the same pattern. covid takes a bite out of it. then, you see a massive acceleration. even though it did east, is now taking back higher. that means that japanese inflation story is not quite over. it creates more pressure for the boj to simply hike. yen has a lot to do with that. not to mention the employment story as well.

that is where things get sticky, not only are they saying that inflation sticking higher right now, they are saying is going to take higher for the next two years. there is some urgency and pressure from the boj as well. they are doubling down on the idea that they will not really be doing anything until the spring. that is just one thought to leave you with. another interview you do not want to miss. the slovenia finance minister. that is coming up later today. will take you through it. this is bloomberg. ♪

it's an amazing thing when you show generosity of spirit to someone. and you want people to be saved and to have a better life, then you don't stop. the idea that we have saved five million people's lives, it's overwhelming. ♪ >> this is "bl