david: good morning.

welcome to daybreak australia counting down to asia's major market opens. haidi: i'm haidi stroud-watts in sydney. israel and hamas signal a temporary cease-fire in gaza could extend beyond mother's day --monday allowing the release of more hostages and prisoners. china launches an investigation into zhongzhi days after a short u.k. prime minister rishi sunak speaks to bloomberg about his economic plans among strict proram.y of his taxcutting our top story. momentum building to extend the truce between israel and hamas beyond four days. president biden back to the prolonged cause for to allow for the delivery of more aid and the recovery of more hostages. let's get more from our white house reporter. give us an update on how the

temporary cease-fire has gone so far and what we have seen in terms of the release of hostages and exchange of individuals. gregory: white house officials have been very cautious about getting their hopes up too much about the prospects for the cease-fire and the resulting release of hostages. but they are breathing a little sigh of today after some of the hostages were transported into israel. they include a four-year-old american girl that had been a top priority after her parents were murdered by hamas on october 7. she is now reuniting with her extended family and siblings in israel. there's a lot of optimism now that this gesture of goodwill by hamas, which of course the u.s. and eu have designated a

terrorist group might pay if the way for more hostage releases and as long as that is happening and making progress president biden said today he hopes the cease-fire will continue. david: get us up to speed. how many hostages so far, do you have a number of how many have been released so far and what is the next step towards an extended pause in fighting? gregory: there were about 17 released today in addition to hostages previously released there were hundreds initially and frankly u.s. officials are not entirely clear -- on the current status of the remaining hostages. they are continuing to ask for proof of life evidence for the red cross to access the hostages to make sure they are alive and in good health. there are 10 remaining american citizens being held hostage.

those are the highest priority for the white house. obviously, hundreds of israelis and other nationalities are involved here too. with the hostage releases by the terms of the negotiations started by women and children, at some point, we will enter the next phase of being able to release some of the men taken hostage. haidi: part of what was anticipated was also for humanitarian organizations and international organizations to get in there and deliver aid and get a better assessment of what is going on on the ground. have 20 -- we had any updates? gregory: humanitarian aid is being sent into gaza. one of the concerns is that aid goes directly to the gazan people and is not diverted by hamas to other uses. so far all the indications is the eight is getting to the gazan people. but as we hear time and again from western officials on this,

trust but verify. they continue to want to see evidence that the aide is reaching people. because, of course, that is the rationale of the cease-fire. that is why so much effort has been put into not just the hostage releases, but the release of some palestinian prisoners and also letting aid through checkpoints into gaza, which is effectively landlocked by israel and egypt. david: gregory thank you for the update. our colleague gregory korte in washington. let's get a sense of how we are stacking up margaret wise. -- market wise. getting warmed up perhaps the most apt description at this time given very little movement 1% give or take to the upside. a little strength in the u.s. dollar.

dollar yen essentially flat. cheaper across the curve in australia and new zealand give or take one or two basis points and being extremely generous there. very little movement ahead of the open of the market in this part of the world. haidi: gap. -- yeah. one of the stories we are watching in australia, and we had some prelude this was coming, but the australian government is to introduce legislation this week to reform and modernize the central bank, the rba, including recommendations from this year's independent review of the rba. paul allen is here with the details. what do we know about the major changes? paul: one is the dual mandate. price stability for employment will be the will mandate of the rba going forward and a change of the meeting schedule. eight meetings per year instead of the monthly meetings we have now bringing the rba into line with international peers. the meeting next tuesday will -- there will not be another until february 5 and six.

day one of that meeting will be presentations. members of the new policy board will then be able to go home, consider what they saw overnight, then there will be discussion and decision the next day. all of the changes have been well flags. 51 changes in the independent review. some do need a law change. for example, the treasurer being able to overrule monetary policy decisions. that will be repealed. we still don't have a deputy governor after michelle ward got promoted to the governor's role. we are waiting to see what happens there. david: paul, there are certain things people always do not like. what do people not like about these changes? paul: there will be some implications here for digital payments providers. the rba will be able to regulate them going forward. the reserve bank has not been reformed since the 1980's, and technology has moved on a lot since then. apple and google were not happy

about being regulated as payment providers. they told that the parliament in a hearing in june. but, the draft legislation has these digital wallets providers being regulated like credit card networks. anybody that writes a check, i don't know too many of those people, but they will be disappointed. the rba will be winding up checks, all gone by 2030. the changes have bipartisan support to prevent any nibbling, any minor changes around the edge by some minor parties when it goes to the vote. david: paul allen in sydney for us. another story in china. authorities have opened criminal investigations into shadow banking giant zhongzhi. the company revealed a shortfall of nearly $37 billion days ago on its balance sheet. annabelle has the details. this is a police investigation focused on multiple suspects. annabelle: yet. --yes.

we don't know who. one has been indicated by the surname zhi making you think of the founder of the company. there are a number of family members working there that have the surname at the executive level. perhaps they're the ones in question. but not a lot of details have come out so far. we had a statement given by police authorities on we chat the local messaging system saying they are conducting a criminal investigation looking into a number of individuals. the context is interesting, as you say. because zhongzhi last week indicated a huge shortfall in its balance sheet. to put it in further context, $37 billion. the company is saying it will not be able to recover a lot of that money back. so perhaps, it is little surprise officials in china, this is the exact sort of thing they don't want to see with the economy in the dire straits it is in.

david: tell us about the financial difficulties. 30 seven billion dollars is massive on the balance sheet. annabelle: part of it could have come down to the bets zhongzhi made in the real estate sector. the concern is trust firms investing across multiple asset classes from bonds to stocks. financial institutions. you can see that asset mix there. it does increase the impact her ability to have spillover effects. an issue is when one part of the economy --an issue in one part of the economy can end up being an issue in another part when you have vehicles investing with a big asset mix. what is happening in terms of the individuals in question? to get that in as well. the statement has not given a very clear indication as to what officials are concerned about most. we just know they are taking criminal measures. that is something we heard before with evergrande. they used the same thing with the probe there into its founder.

they can take a lot of different ways or measures. summons, released on bail, residential surveillance, detention and arrest. a lot could be happening now. haidi: who is most likely to be affected by all this? annabelle: it comes down to the wealthy individuals that are most at risk here. because, they have typically been the ones that invested in these sorts of vehicles because they have been able to earn better returns than putting their money with a traditional bank. this issue has been going on a number of months. because of the troubles at zhongzhi that started in august because they failed to make repayments at that point on a number of high yield investment products. certainly there are a number of people addressed in this situation. they are the exact people chinese police want to speak with asking for cooperation for investors that have been impacted by this situation. we will see the evolving situation, how many come forward and cooperate with the investigation. haidi: we will watch this all

closely. annabelle in hong kong. ahead the u.k. prime minister rishi sunak speaking to bloomberg exclusively about his economic outlook and strategy. at that conversation is at this hour. first, hearing from pepper international looking forward to reelections in the u.s. next year. this is bloomberg.

haidi: on march first central bank decisions across asia wednesday, bloomberg expecting the bank of thailand to leave interest rates on hold. they are considering the policy rate neutral. where it can support growth while ensuring price stability. the bok expected to hold rates as it tries to curb inflation amid rising household date -- debt. we will be on watch for the rate decision from new zealand. the fed's preferred price gauge

is expected to come in at zero point 1% in october allowing the fed to keep rates on hold through year end. other cpi prints to watch from the eurozone and australia. speaking of, the rba has warned the remaining inflation challenges are increasingly homegrown, domestic, and demand driven. u.s. gdp figures, pmi numbers throughout asia, china industrial profits, and pmi wants to watch as well as ppi and job numbers out of japan. that is your week ahead. david: yes. by the end of the week it gets us to december, the final months of the year. november has been right as that's great as far as risk assets go. our next guest carol pepper is founder and ceo of founder international. good morning from the agent pacific. -- asia pacific. november has been good. will december be better? carol: yes. i think we will have a nice

santa claus rally at least for stocks in the u.s.. because, the fed has done its job. it looks like we are indeed getting a soft landing. inflation this time oster was seven .75%. now it is three point two 4% and heading lower. there is a good consensus the labor market will finish the job getting us closer to 2%. that has caused a tremendous relief rally that i think we'll keep going. we have had wonderful news the hostage exchanges are going well. it does not look like there will be nuclear war in the middle east in the next few weeks god willing. i think the general risk profile is going down. gas prices are going down. consumers feel more confident. that is why i think we will continue to have a good rally through the end of the year and indeed, through 24. david: right. just to get may be a cross asset overlay across these equity markets, i mean, in fixed income

a lot of people have told us to buy bonds. you get decent income. i am curious, what do you think is the allure of equities when these parts of fixed income can give you equity like returns? carol: i manage money for people with over a hundred million dollars at families think very long-term. the problem with bonds, friendly, is as interest rates go down, bond prices will go up. that is what people are betting on now. the timing of that is very uncertain. we don't know exactly when that will happen. i have told people to park their money on money markets. then look at equities. because i'm a equities, --because, equities, you will never get the kind of returns as the bond market. like the middle ground in tennis, you are not at the net, not at the back. it can be a frustrating place for a retail client to be area --to be. i suggest to park in money markets. long-term growth have that has

absolutely always come out of the equity markets. long-term returns over 10%. this year growth equities are up 30 5% and you will never get that in bonds. you have had such a drop in interest rates implying something horrible is going on in the world and we have not seen that. so i think money markets and equities globally are the places to be. and real estate is starting to look more attractive as rates go down. haidi: i will continue your tennis analogy. it is almost to the australian open. what is the risk of staying at the net too much here? it looks fearful at the front with tech and growth exposure. carol: look, so many people this year were wringing their hands. where are we now? if you had stayed in growth at the beginning of the year, made long-term decisions, and closed your eyes, you would be up 35% now. if you try to figure out what

will happen, you lost money. because, you probably never got bets right unless you are a brilliant ai machine. i think you have to have a long time horizon, a 5-10 year time horizon. there are clear trends that will work out. big tech. weight loss drugs that will sweep the planet. robotics. electric batteries. solar energy. things we know over the long haul will work, just not when. when you go into equities you need a long-term horizon. just close your eyes. try to get a good entry point on a day when the markets are fearful. when markets are fearful equities go down. that is when you buy. bilo, so highlighter. -- by low and sell high later. it is not as complicated as

people think if you keep your hands off the trigger. do not over trade. you want to be investing, not daytrading. haidi: do you want exposure to a show? is that what you are telling your clients? or is it at least another year of american exceptionalism for equities? carol: we try to invest in a long time frame. forward over the next 10 years all emerging markets have great opportunities both in asia, looking more at asia x china up 11% this year, already a good bet. i do think china will come back online. i was happy there was a more friendly comfort between biden and president xi jinping. hopefully that leads to warm and relations between the u.s. and china. certainly asia x japan is booming and for our side of the pond they are looking seriously now at mexico because of near shoring trends.

mexico market was up 27% and you can buy that with an etf, eww. it is a percentage of your asset allocation that makes sense. the rest of the world is developing beautifully. they won't be developing markets for much longer. many markets are very developed now. david: if your horizon is five-10 years, why wait on china? why not now china? if you had to pick one market in the world most divorced from its trends, valuations, positioning, that's the chinese market. what do you think about that? carol: if you are bold, you will do it. if you are in a part of the world, long-term, put some money away in china now. long-term in that country is not going anywhere.

they will come back strongly. i am sure of that. for sure, china is a favorite bet. in the u.s. you can look at out of favor bets like real estate, that has been severely beaten up the now -- up. now you can get in at very good prices. we have tons of wealthy families coming to the u.s. and buying real estate because it is good to be contrary and and get in at a low price if you can afford to. david: you mentioned eww the etf in mexico. leave us with one stock name or etf i should bet the house on and one to avoid. carol: i am always an amazon bull. that company will not slow down. if you want something for your grandchildren's trust funds by

amazon or microsoft. if you are bold, and -- bolder nvidia will do a great job up over 200% this year. in terms of avoiding, i don't have one i would particularly avoid. i would say we are probably nearing the end of the oil boom. some oil stocks will not continue to have outsized returns going forward. because, the world are --world is slowing down a bit and certain countries even portugal now has had days where they are one hundred percent renewable energy. 10 years from now, i do not think oil will be what it is today. haidi: always great to chat with you. coming up, bloomberg's exclusive interview with u.k. prime minister rishi sunak talking all about the economy, antisemitism, and elon musk. this is bloomberg.

david: good morning. welcome back to the show. we are on watch for cop 28, preliminary meetings beginning. in a couple days, the main feature starts. there is a great preview piece on the bloomberg terminal where food is expected to take center stage in some ways as perhaps the next needle we can move. livestock, farming, i think we have done some data crunching here as well. based on information out of the united nations where livestock accounts for about one third of greenhouse gas emissions, right? so, i think the play there is for developed countries to try and influence their population to eat less protein and meat. north america is a good example. they consume at least nearly

double, if not more, what you get in other parts of the world. the other thing too is -- it is one thing to say it and another thing to actually get the greater population to chime in on this and follow. haidi: yeah. it is an interesting way to get ordinary households to think about this. australia has been the major focus when it has come to being a lagarde in being more ambitious with its environmental transition clean energy targets. it looks like there might be good news on closing in on the emissions target. the country is on track to cut greenhouse emissions by 42% below 2005 levels by 2030 according to the climate and energy minister. new projections will be released formally this week. the number is broadly an improvement from last year's 40 percent estimate. australia is still one of the

biggest exporters of fossil fuels on the planet. the target is less than the labor governments 43% reduction target, but we are seeing a little improvement. on the policy front the company -- country is ramping up lance to boost spending on renewable energy. the energy ministers that he is happy with that. but of course activists will be pushing for more. david: yes. one to watch. a couple names. when markets open up top of the neck tower. coming up, our exclusive interview with you paper prime minister rishi sunak talking all things economy, the power goes out and we still have wifi to do our homework. and that's a good thing? great in my book! who are you? no power? no problem. introducing storm-ready wifi. now you can stay reliably connected through power outages with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery back-up

to keep you online. only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network. i don't want you to move. i'm gonna miss you so much. you realize we'll have internet waiting for us at the new place, right? oh, we know. we just like making a scene. transferring your services has never been easier. get connected on the day of your move with the xfinity app. can i sleep over at your new place? can katie sleep over tonight? sure, honey! this generation is so dramatic! move with the xfinity 10g network.

david: welcome back. u.k. prime minister rishi sunak denied his economic plans are about to deliver a fresh round of austerity speaking

exclusively to bloomberg ahead of the global investment summit in london where the government is unveiling 37 billion dollars of new investment. have a look. >> we are excited to be hosting our global investment summit. it is are welcome to business event. i am very pleased that as human gender we have secured commitments of almost 30 billion pounds of investment, more than double if not triple what we had when we last held the summit. that is an enormous vote of confidence in the u.k. on the back of the very positive autumn statement with significant support for business. i think there is real momentum in the u.k. autonomy you are seeing with tangible commitments from investors. >> prime minister, jeremy hunt framed the autumn statement as a pathway to growth. yet the ob are trimmed their forecast for next year, 2025. are they being too conservative? prime minister sunak: the story of the u.k. is an economy with real momentum. i have been prime minister for over a year. over that time we cut inflation

by 50%. we know the u.k. economy covered faster from the pandemic than pretty much any other major european economy and over time we are still forecasted to outperform major european economies. crucially business investment has grown faster than any other g-7 economy over the last few years. if you want to drive growth and productivity in an economy you need businesses to be investing. we have momentum for business investment here than anywhere else. i feel positive about the long-term growth outlook for the u.k.. >> you think the obr laughter revised up or are you confidence numbers will come in so you can cut taxes? prime minister sunak: when i became prime minister not just the obr. but the bank of england and the imf predicted the u.k. would be in recession this year and that has not happened. we put in policies to ensure it did not. u.k. economy this year has outperformed what anybody thought. i have a track record of

outperforming and the u.k. economy has real momentum now. inflation has been cut and business momentum is growing faster than elsewhere and we have commitment totaling almost 30 billion pounds for the summit, significant and more than the past. i think it shows investors and companies are voting with their pounds and dollars. that shows confidence in the economy and makes me think we are poised for strong growth. >> looking at inflation excluding energy it has been down by like 1/5. so, i do not know how much credit the government can take on that. prime minister sunak: when you look at core inflation it is pretty much middle of the pack for european economies. it forecast next year to be lower than the euro zone and in the u.s. the last numbers i checked, inflation is downward coming down faster than peers over the course of the last 12 months looking at the forecast. we are making sure we are disciplined with borrowing making sure fiscal policy is sensible. we aren't fueling the inflationary fire.

we are being sensible on public sector wages settlements and you are seeing that feed through to the economy. we also are improving labor supply. businesses are keen to see access to labor. we are making sure our labor market remains flexible, moving people out of welfare into work. all those things are contributing to downward momentum on inflation. francine: if the obr is right, where can you find a spending freeze or cuts? prime minister sunak: we have delivered significant tax cuts for business and everybody in work. that is what our autumn statement last week did. some of the biggest tax cuts in one event since the 1980's. we are making full expensing covered. we will be the only major g-7 economy, or even broader than that, when you get a total write-off against your taxes for capital investment, and generous regime to attract business investment on top of the fact

our corporation tax is lower than any other g-7 economy. when it comes to individuals and work we have just delivered a very significant personal tax cut that will put four hundred 50 pounds extra i bank accounts of --four hundred 50 pounds extra in the bank accounts of a typical person in work. tresia: you have to find money in departments where you know voters want you to spend more. are you comfortable possibly being prime minister of austerity? prime minister sunak: that's not the case. government spending in the u.k. now is at high levels historically. over the parliament it has grown at high levels even in real terms after the impact of inflation. i think any commentary or accusation of that sort happening is unfounded. we are at a point now, event how people are feeling and the amount being spent where i think the priority has to be lowering the tax burden. the government is already spending other people's money. we need to see more productivity out of the public sector to match the private sector

post-covid. i would rather focus on efficiency in the public sector and prioritize cutting taxes rather than the government spending evermore of their money. i am very clear that i think that is the choice we are making. francine: even if the voters don't feel the tax cuts because of inflation going up, how much more can you cut taxes in april and beyond? prime minister sunak: we are just digesting what we have had, the biggest tax cuts since the 19 80's. this is still a journey. after we got inflation down i wanted to focus on making sure we reward people's hard work, making sure we grow the economy and responsibly cutting taxes. when we can do more, we will. that is the direction of travel. prime minister sunak: will bringing down the immigration numbers be enough? prime minister sunak: i think the british people's priority is to stop illegal migration.

that is when i set up the five key priorities i had one was to deliver on that. i am pleased that since i have said that we have cut the numbers by one third. when i got the job they had gone up and up and up. they quadrupled the past few years. now for the first time they are down by a lot. down by one third. in the rest of europe they are going up. we are making progress, so i want to deliver on our rwanda plan so we will finish the job. francine: will you publish a treaty and bill on rwanda? prime minister sunak: we will address all the concerns the courts have raised about rwanda. you pointed out the united nations themselves have used rwanda for resettlement schemes under the past. we worked with the rwandan government to put in place a treaty that will address all the

concerns raised and then parliament will be given the opportunity to scrutinize that and demonstrate it believes rwanda is safe. francine: does that mean you will push it even if it goes against the european court? prime minister sunak: we are completely in compliance with our obligations. that is the approach we have taken so far. some objectives --objections and concerns have been raised by the court. we will address all of those and make sure that our parliament will be able to scrutinize that and determined that rwanda is safe. francine: how will you decide when you call an election? prime minister sunak: again, that is something we will announce in the normal way. francine: is there a trigger point? prime minister sunak: really, i am not focused on elections. i am focused on delivering on the things i said i would do for the british people. that is, now we have cut inflation by 50% we can turn to cutting taxes and growing the economy, that is what our tax

cuts for businesses were about last week. and stopping illegal migration, stopping the boats. these are things i am focused on. we have taken big decisions about a more pragmatic approach to net zero, something i think is right. we have to bring people with us on that journey saving working families money as we do it. we are doing things making a big difference to people that i want to deliver on. francine: you have taken a hard line on rising anti-semitism in the u.k.. the white house announced elon musk for what happened on x the last couple days. do you do the same. prime minister sunak: i am not in the business of scrutinizing what every person says i interact with. of course, i hope or anti-semitism -- a poor anti-semitism. that is not acceptable in our society. i have personally been very firm about that. it is very sad what is happening. i condemn all anti-semitism.

it is not about any one particular personality. francine: he has a big platform. prime minister sunak: i condemn anti-semitism in all forms. it does not matter if you are elon musk or somebody on the street shouting abuse at somebody walking past you. anti-semitism in all forms is completely wrong and we have strong rules in place to tackle hate. some scenes we have seen have been unacceptable. the police know they should be using the full force of their power to bring those people to justice. that is what we have been here about and will continue to do. we have made sure the jewish community gets extra funding here to ensure their safety and security and we will continue to do that. francine: what plan do you have for gaza? when you think the fighting will stop? can the u.k. be involved in the peacekeeping? prime minister sunak: we have been clear during this awful

tragedy that israel has a right to defend itself in accordance with your demented terry and --with humanitarian law. we have called for sustained humanitarian posits where age can get in and hostages can come out. i am glad that is now happening. we have all seen the scenes in the past to find that hardening. it is important everyone honors in the agreement so we continue to see more progress and work with partners in the region whether americans, israelis, egyptians, qatari's, to make sure we see this through. francine: is the u.k. looking for a two state solution? prime minister sunak: we always have been and always will be. i spoke to the palestinian president about this. the u.k. will do everything it can to help the palestinian authority. we do need to learn -- look to the future of god supposed hamas to make sure -- of gaza post hamas to make sure everybody can

lead lives of security and dignity. we have to redouble our strategies to bring that about. haidi: that u.k. prime minister rishi sunak speaking with francine lacqua in an exclusive conversation. a number of broad topics there. but, honing in on of course, he says, the claims the u.k. is headed for austerity are unfounded, and pushing back against anti-semitism in all forms when pressed about elon musk including elon musk yet -- musk. he says cutting taxes is the direction of travel, denying his economic plans are about to deliver a fresh bout of u.k. austerity, really pushing back on expectations for the election, will not discuss timing saying it's not priority at the moment. just a few things touched on in that wide-ranging interview with rishi sunak.

let's bring in the president and chief economist at prestige economics. you look at the u.s. economy closely. what is your take on this fear that these motions will be pushing the economy into austerity? we heard from received sunak -- rishi sunak sang the time to unfounded. he is focusing on efficiency whether then --rather than spending. is that your take? jason: i think there are a lot of challenges for the u.k. and others with a relatively high level of interest rates to inflation. i think those are the top priorities. if we are looking at more government austerity at a time where you are looking at high interest rates that could have more downward pressure to economic growth and also take some inflation off. that trade off. how much more growth? how much more in the labor

market? that is a really difficult question and something a lot of countries are trying to grapple with. also, during covid, trying to get the economy pushing forward and now a high interest rate high inflation environment, that's hard to face especially with weakening economic data factoring in pmi's out this week for november. haidi: what are the risks you are assigning looking out to 2024? jason: three big things in the year ahead. in most economies, especially the u.s., there is a risk of slower growth, slowing inflation, and slowing jobs. how much more does this slow? at what pace does this happen? but those three things seem very

likely to happen in the u.s. and other economies. across financial markets that will impact commodity markets, equities, and government bond yields as well. david: we have heard from several economists, that the fed might move sooner the first half of next year. is that a possibility in your view? david: i think the fed is more likely to consider things like rate cut the second half of the year. we have moderate out --modeled out cpi inflation. we don't see ourselves sitting two percent for total cpi probably until around midyear. the fed will want confidence that the inflation genie is back in the bottle before they look at cutting rates. of course, there are really good tailwinds in the united states. there is almost 9.6 million open

jobs in september. put that in contrast. before the great recession in 2000 seven there was only about four point 5 million open jobs. --4.5 million open jobs. even if jobs and payrolls increased at a slower amount there is still a big backlog of open jobs and that will give the federal little bit of breathing room even as growth likely slows and could even contract. david: what part of the economy holds up and what does not? what hits the mud face first? jason: the consumer looks really strong now. you have more people on payrolls in the united states making more money than ever. that's good. manufacturing is weak. the purchasing. the ism has been contracting now for a year. we are likely to see it at 13 months in the november report. that's not great. but there was such a big backlog

in 2020 one and parts of 2022 that most manufacturing companies still have a monstrous backlog even if their new orders are down. so, manufacturing might still hang in there even though some of the data looks weak. construction and housing is an area where the high interest rates could begin to hit home. in other commodity markets, specifically oil and gas, because that is exposed to global growth and the global economy is weakening, we could see more downside for oil and gas companies in the months ahead, despite an opec meeting that was supposed to happen today that got postponed until thursday, november 30. so, that postponement from the 20 six to the 30 is a big deal. they are trying to figure out how much they want to pull back supply. because, global growth is slowing so significantly. those are some of the big pieces moving now.

haidi: obviously an agreement on extending the supply cut, all of this when it comes to output levels will be crucial. will it be a big hurdle for global oil markets to rally even if they come to an agreement? this chart shows going into the meeting opec reducing output from the peaks we saw post-covid. jason: that is the real kicker today. opec already announced they would have cuts extended through the end of 2024.will they make ? how much more do they make them? i think you are right that there is a short-term downside risk to prices, even if they announced digital -- additional production cuts. we might get a short-term bounce but the trend over the next few months is still on the downside because global growth is such a critical proxy for what will happen with oil demand.

and also industrial metals are trading a lot lower than they were at the beginning of 2023. there is more downside in the months ahead until we see central banks comfortable with inflation being no longer an issue and being able to cut rates. again, that is something that might not happen until the middle or the second half of next year. david: copper 8500. the last decade through the pandemic was like 6000-7000. we are off highs, but are you surprised copper is holding at 8000 given the weakness of the chinese economy? how are you looking at china? do you have enough information to come up with an educated outlook on what that economy looks like next year and the appetite for commodities? jason: copper prices relatively speaking, relatively high. they have gone up in recent weeks as well.

they are a lot lower than they were at the beginning of the year and they are likely to go down a bit further. i think what is holding copper up, even though it has been following all year on trend, is, the expectations that the green energy revolution will drive industrial metals demand a lot more. that is a secular change, not a trend line versus headline. now, the trend of the year is really market and growth driven rather than a secular energy piece. looking at china, concerned about what we could see in the year ahead with high interest rates, with cold war two brewing now. you see a lot of companies leaving china, coming to mexico, the u.s.. there is a great deal of concern among institutional investors that what happened once russia cleared war on ukraine and began that war, you had a lot of distressed assets going to zero.

what happens if china and taiwan become a major conflict? what will happen to the value of u.s. investors --the value of investments u.s. investors hold in china? will those become big goose eggs as world war ii -- cold war t wo. you are looking at a major risk that the financial ties with china and any assets american companies and investors have their could become stranded distressed assets worth nothing. that could weigh on china significantly in the year ahead. more direct investment could be kept at bay with more things being pulled out, more manufacturing, more investment pulled out of china. david: jason, good morning from the asia-pacific. what a way to wake up. have a great rest of your week

jason schenker at prestige economics. stay tuned for big interviews today. you don't want to miss blackstone chairman and ceo stephen schwarzman joining us at 7:35 p.m. out of hong s monday. this is bloomberg. this is bloomberg.

that first time you take a step back. i made that. with your very own online store. i sold that. and you can manage it all in one place. i built this. and it was easy, with a partner that puts you first. godaddy.

haidi: you are watching daybreak australia. china's health commission blamed a combination of pathogens including influenza for a surge in acute respiratory infections. the country had a spate of outbreaks of respiratory diseases hitting children particularly hard. chinese health authorities told world health organization why there have been increases in hospitalizations. on the geopolitical front, some stories. russia saw one of its biggest drone attacks in months. the russian defense ministry said 20 four drones were shot down overnight and early sunday morning across at least four regions including moscow. at least one ukrainian media sites intelligence sources that said 35 drones were launched as a response to moscow's drone for on --barrage saturday. prime ministers pushing for a trilateral leadership summit

that has been on hold since 2019 thanks to the covid pandemic and political tensions. the three countries drifted apart in recent years as japan and south korea strengthened ties with the u.s.. soul has been looking to hold another bilateral meeting either at the end of this year or early 20 24. meanwhile, japanese prime minister kishida is stepping up for a meeting with north korean leader kim jong-un. tokyo wants to establish relations. japan said 17 citizens were kidnapped by north korea in the late 1970's and early 80's you five -- early 80's. five were freed in 2002. david: a brief look at markets as we warm up and reawaken from the weekend slumber. we aren't getting out of bed that quickly. keep in mind the backdrop is really momentum coming through the equity markets. and ci all country index up for a fourth straight week, the

longest streak their accents mid 2022. there is fogginess on the edges of the market. nikkei futures slightly lower. bonds essentially flat. the dollar slightly higher off two weeks of weakness. pay attention to that. the vix index, if you missed it friday, fell to the lowest level since the pandemic started. that is it from daybreak austria. there is more ahead. daybreak: asia is next. this is bloomberg. good morning.

david: good