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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  November 27, 2023 1:30pm-2:00pm EST

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>> welcome to bloomberg markets. >> let's get a check on the markets because we are at a moment where the s&p 500 is flirting with gains about flat on the day, near session highs. we have started this week on a low note. not the same picture for the nasdaq 100. we are looking at some green on the screen. i want to talk about the bond market for a minute because you had a two-year option this morning that came in a little lighter than expected. yields a little higher than expected. yet we are seeing the market respond in a different way. we are seeing yields ever so slightly on the decline.
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about three basis points lower on the two-year after a five-year option. i want to take a look at crude as we start the week because you are now looking at crude flirting with dipping below $75. the reason that matters is you have a key meeting later this week of key oil-producing nations at a time where saudi arabia is cushion -- pushing for more cuts to output. jon: we are going to be watching closely becomes out of the opec-plus gathering. energy stocks under pressure today. we have notable calls we wanted to get to. some cautious commentary on footlocker from citi. a lot of that has to do with the health of the consumer. the investor decision-making process right now seems to be leaving the stock unchanged. we are seeing a notable decline for ge healthcare. generally speaking this has been a successful story since the spin out from general electric. but ubs now with some cautious views.
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just do not see a lot of catalyst for the shares going forward. you mentioned the outperformance for the nasdaq today, what has been happening for names like shopify which trades here in canada as well. and etsy, when you have these early reads on at least the spending online, black friday into cyber monday, those numbers coming in hotter than what they would have anticipated. investors watching what is happening with the e-commerce players per the question is whether that takes away from some of the store activity, retail activity people would get through being in a physical location. i guess we will find out through the course of the holiday shopping period. sonali: bloomberg took a look at the rising cost of living here in the united states and americans are continuing to show strong dissatisfaction with the economy. you now need to spend more than $119 to buy the same goods and
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services a family could afford with $100 before the pandemic. reade pickert wrote about this today. at what point do we see that buildup of inflationary pressures start to cool for the american consumer? reade: what we see when we talk about inflation, when economists talk about inflation they talk about this year-over-year number and we have seen this occasionally bumpy pullback in inflation over the last year or so. but when you talk to americans about inflation they talk about our price levels. so this story was a way of showing how much price levels have changed since january 2020 before the pandemic, to really get the sense of this cost-of-living squeeze. when you think about where the consumer is right now you have seen wages increase a lot over that same time. on a nominal basis wages increased something around 20% since january 2020, which is a lot and historic. but the problem is inflation has
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eat not a lot of those gains. so when you think about where consumers are right now, they have had this wage growth that has allowed them to really keep the consumer spending resilient as we have seen even in the holiday shopping. but what it boils down to is the labor market and whether unemployment can stay low and folks can continue to see wage increases that keep them in line with inflation. jon: obviously we have seen a rapid escalation in interest rates to counter some of the inflationary concerns. but at the same time in your story you outline with higher borrowing costs, the inflationary impact there, which is also a source of frustration. reade: absolutely. at the same time you're are seeing your grocery prices rise, electricity prices rise, your car insurance surge, you are also seeing it is way more expensive -- in fact, the most expensive it has ever been to bar with a credit card. you are seeing auto loan rates
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surge at a time when auto loan prices have surged as well. home prices, while we are finally seeing what appears to be a respite in terms of home prices, they are way higher than they were before the pandemic. on top of that we have seen mortgage rates way higher than they were before the pandemic. something like home values are up about 42% since january 2020. the zillow chief economist put it really well. hindsight is 2020. it was like winning the lottery if you managed to get a house before mortgage rates jumped in before home values appreciated. which renters are fully aware of. at the same time they have watched a big chunk of the money they spend every month go towards more and more expensive housing. sonali: reade pickert, thank you so much for your time and reporting. we are going to turn now more to that home story, that key part of the inflationary story. purchases of new single-family homes decreased 5.6% in october
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compared to a year ago, and that was below all estimates in a bloomberg survey of economists. we have the perfect person to discuss this with, bess freeman. on the one hand you feel the pinch of higher rates. on the other hand you are seeing prices go down by and large. >> yeah. i think we're in a bit of an affordability crisis and rates are coming down so that is good. but rates, tight inventory and prices, that trifecta has been challenging for the housing market. the good news is analysts were predicting a crash and we have not seen that. i think we are seeing some good news as inflation starts to quell. jon: bess, on the inventory part of it, for those people who maybe were not as mobile because they were watching things change any mobile market. what is the inventory picture going to look like heading into next year? bess: i think we have had
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artificially constrained inventory because of rates. i think now as we see rates starting to come down a little bit, hopefully next year if we get a cut will get more inventory on the market which will get more fluid nest in the housing market, which will be a good thing overall, which we desperately need by the way. sellers right now don't want to put their homes on the market because then if they buy a new home they buy a new home they're going to get a rate double what they have right now. most people are locked in at 2% or 3%. we are it -- we are in a bit of a quagmire right now. but is still very positive. when you think of housing you should think of it in terms of time, not timing. it is a forced savings, so to speak, for people. sonali: the last time we spoke you mentioned people would have to get used to the 30 year mortgage. do you still think that is true with expectations changing? bess: i think the days of the 2% and 3% -- i cannot macro forecast, but i think it will be many years before we see that
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again. historically we still have lower rates. the 1980's were something like 18%. having a little bit under 8%, and they may go down to 6%, that is still good news. there is plenty of opportunity for buyers and sellers. jon: let's also talk about the range of potential buyers. we were just talking with reade pickert, who in her story talked about during the pandemic there were a lot of people who were not moving around as much so they saw their saving rates increase, certainly at the higher end. when it comes to things like cash transactions in your industry, what are you seeing right now? bess: cash transactions are actually down by something like 20%. and regular transactions are down by something like 30%. most people get a mortgage. but when people see what is going on in the economy they are more hesitant. affordability is a challenge for people. i think things have just slowed down and housing.
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but the housing market is cyclical and the good news is it looks like next year things will be better. we don't know if the fed is going to raise the fed funds rate again. but people are somewhat semi-optimistic, it is not doom and gloom. sonali: the median prices fell closer to 400,000. i know you said it is not about timing the market, but at what level median prices do you expect more people to start reentering the market? bess: i think it is more about when people feel comfortable with where the rates are, they are going to get in. we saw some study recently that said when people see rates around 6% they will jump back into the market again. once people see rates come down, inflation isnik people will jump back into the housing market. jon: bess, good to get your perspective. bess freedman, joining us with more on what is happening on the housing front right now. coming up, a firm share soaring as consumers take advantage of
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jon: this is bloomberg markets. time now for stock of the hour. we have been tracking shares of affirm today up in the neighborhood of 11.5% over the last couple of days. it's certainly a strong showing today as investors are reviewing the early numbers on holiday shopping. not only have we seen consumers gravitating towards online buying, but you have data from adobe suggesting that buy now,
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pay later has been a pretty popular option so far with shoppers. and immediately the company that comes to mind on that front is affirm. sonali: absolutely, affirm and shopify have a very close relationship. we have the details on my shopify is doing so well. is this a matter of a strong consumer or just really great discounts? >> i think it is shopify doing very well. as a consumer that is strong enough to do well online. and businesses that are drawing consumers in, in a way, through the shopify platform. shopify had been focused on keeping its costs in line, it's margins, trying to expand its margins. and seeming to deliver in a way that most analysts i do not think had anticipated. it is on track for about 20% year on year growth. it is certainly an element of consumers are doing more shopping online, doing it more through spotify, and the
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discounts they see are good. but the discounts they see in stores may not have been everything they wanted because inventory management has been better than it has been before. jon: it has been interesting to see so many analysts reacting. there is an analyst day that shopify is set to host early next month which maybe is an opportunity for them to both up on all the changes announced in more updates on the holiday shopping trend. simone: absolutely. i think one of the big things they are going to be asked to look through is this buy now, pay later, for which they have this partnership with affirm. i think when you are thinking to the overall data we have gotten through black friday and cyber monday, if these numbers from shopify are real, and we have no reason to believe they are not, we are looking at $4.1 billion in terms of sales on black friday. adobe analytics saw overall $9.8
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billion. so was shopify really responsible for all of this, and how much of this is coming from the consumer that is buying through affirm and buying through this buy now, pay later agenda? i think these are both questions analysts are going to be looking for answers to come that meeting . jon: yeah. simone, thank you a lot. simone foxman breaking down the stories. we will continue to track those stocks. coming up, our exclusive interview with rishi sunak on the rise of anti-semitic rhetoric. this is bloomberg. ♪
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jon: this is bloomberg markets. in an interview with bloomberg, the u.k. prime minister rishi sunak condemned all forms of anti-semitism. sunak is under pressure after sharing the stage with elon musk at the ai safety summit earlier this month. musk has been under fire for amplifying anti-semitic content on x. here is some of sunak's contents with bloomberg's francine lacqua. pm sunak: i don't tend to get in the business of scrutinizing what everything a person says. of course i abhor anti-semitism and we have been unequivocal from the start of this situation
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that that is not acceptable in our society. i have personally been very firm about that. it is very sad, what is happening. francine: but are you condemning elon musk? pm sunak: i condemn all anti-semitism. it is not about one personality. francine: but he has a big platform and a big voice. pm sunak: as i said, i condemn and that summit is a in all of its forms -- condemn anti-semitism in all its forms. anti-semitism in all its forms is completely and utterly wrong and we have strong laws in place to tackle racial hatred. the police no they should be using the full force of their powers to bring those people to justice. that is what we have been very clear about. we have made sure the jewish community gets extra funding here to ensure their safety and security and we will continue to do that. francine: what kind of plan you
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have for gaza? when do you think the fighting will stop? can the u.k. actually be involved in the peacekeeping role afterwards? pm sunak: we have been consistently clear during this awful tragedy that israel does have a right to defend itself. it should do that in accordance with humanitarian law. we've also's called for humanitarian pauses where aid can get in but also hostages can come out. i am glad that is now happening. all of us will have seen some of the scenes over the past days and find that heartening. it is important everyone honors the agreement and we continue to see more progress. and we continue with all of our partners in the region to make sure that we can see this through. francine: is the u.k. still for a two-state solution? pm sunak: always has been and we need to redouble our efforts towards that. i spoke to the palestinian president when i visited the region specifically about this. the u.k. will do everything it
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can to help the palestinian authority. we do need to look to the future of gaza posthamas and make sure everyone can look forward to a future where they can live lives of dignity and security and opportunity. that is the vision all of us share but we have to redouble our efforts to bring that about. sonali: today there was a critical meeting in the middle east for elon musk where he met with israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu. we are going to bring in bloomberg technology cohost ed ludlow to talk about what is at stake. because this was really about the starling -- starlink satellite network. but there are many parts of musk 's empire facing a lot of questions in its role at this time. ed: elon musk is the world's richest person and in many ways he behaves like a foreign leader. he made a post earlier this month that was seen as endorsing and amplifying another user's
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post, which was seen as spreading an anti-semitic theory. musk has subsequently said he is absolutely not anti-semitic and has called media reports that he is anti-semitic bogus and has traveled to the region. he did a 20 minute spaces on the x platform with israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu. during that 20 minutes, prime minister netanyahu did not even ask him about the post. but a lot of the talks going on behind the scenes are about starlink. jon: i want to ask you about broadcasting on x, which musk, generally speaking, whether it is an interview with the media or an event like this, crucially he is taking advantage of the platform he now owns. is that just the norm going forward for musk and the messaging from him? ed: it has been the norm for him to speak to people on the record publicly on the spaces and -- it's an audio platforming --
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they discussed all kinds of things but in the context of the israel hamas war, he said he wanted to personally help rebuild gaza post-war between israel and hamas. in terms of the footage he has shown in terms of hamas, he said it was appalling. beyond that it was a widespread conversation. he fields questions, he just does it on his own platform. sonali: speaking of the platform , how much redirection does there need to be at the x platform? what does linda yaccarino's life look like? ed: she is under duress in the sense of there were lots of media reports that she was refusing to resign. my sources told me she is absolutely refusing to resign, as she had no intention to resign. there was reporting that advertising execs put pressure
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on her to resign based on the flight of advertisers. in a memo i saw to staff last week, she confirmed there was advertiser flight, but did not name any of them. it is complicated, because the main source of the advertiser concern was a media matters report that named advertisers such as apple and ibm. according to that report, which x says is false, those advertiser ads were appearing next to malicious content for a wide range of subject matter and malicious content. and you see others in parallel leaving the x platform like a doll go, citing the concern around anti-semitism. but those were two separate events that got conflated. so there is pressure there, but they are trying to deal with two different things. the pervasiveness of malicious content on the platform and musk 's own actions vis-a-vis the
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israel hamas war. jon: we only have about a minute left but you talked about musk being in a position to arguably the like a ward leader. the starlink connection to this story and the conversations held regarding using starlink satellites in gaza, another part of this trip. ed: the israeli communications ministry has come out about six or seven hours ago that there is a principal understanding in place to operationalize, turn starlink on in israel and also the gaza strip. but the condition the israelis have is that it is up to them whether it is able to be turned on in israel and the gaza strip. we have not heard from musk or spacex, so that is something we are waiting for, confirmation of that deal. but as it stands, the israelis seem to be in kennett -- indicating that starlink will soon be in its territory. jon: ed ludlow on elon musk's trip to the middle east.
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obviously we will continue to track the broader market story as well where we are seeing a bit of a mixed picture in north american trading. this is bloomberg. ♪ the chase ink business premier card is made for people like sam, who make- everyday products, designed smarter. like a smart coffee grinder, that orders fresh beans for you. oh, genius! for more breakthroughs like that- i need a breakthrough card. like ours! with 2.5% cash back on purchases of $5,000 or more. plus unlimited 2% cash back on all other purchases. and with greater spending potential, sam can keep making smart ideas- a brilliant reality! the ink business premier card from chase for business. make more of what's yours. the power goes out and we still have wifi the ink business premier card from chase for business. to do our homework. and that's a good thing? great in my book!
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romaine: stocks taking a breather ahead of a breathless week -- potentially breathless week. i'm romaine bostick. katie: i'm katie greifeld. we are kicking you off to the closing bell in the u.s. a lot to look forward to. have the s&p 500 pretty much unchanged on the day trying to find its way back to the green. the nasdaq 100, up .2%. pretty small moves. the bond rally, reigniting. the 10-year treasury yield, down six basis points on the day. we will see how low it can go.

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