>> welcome to daybreak asia. we are counting down to ages major market open. >> bets the fed can ease policy next year, rbnz expected to hold its key rate today even as the economy slows. u.s. shares tumbling most after warning of growth. plus tributes from the man who helped warren buffett build berkshire hathaway, charlie monger is dead at the age of 99. the focus is on the rbnz, there expectations central bank will have to push back pretty strongly against these evermore aggressive expectations by the market that interest rate cuts

are coming and i've always said they wanted to remain data-dependent and their are mixed messages coming from the tailwinds and headwinds in that economy. we are watching for that, expectations are for that rate to remain unchanged, but it's all down to that rest conference. a staggered open here in sydney, we will check back in a little bit as we get trading properly underway but we are really watching the continuation of the treasuries rally on that continued fed pivot and we saw brent crude rally, snapping four sessions of losses so expect to see gains when it comes to australia and asian energy names as well. we did see the dollar continuing to weaken, on track for the worst month in a year. that was an across-the-board week and we see that benefiting the likes of the aussie dollar is one of the top outperformers,

but also looking at potential further support for the yen as well, the yen, the one, and the kiwi were some of the biggest gainers we saw in the session against the dollar. shery: the dollar at the lowest level since august, given the four sessions of falls we've seen for the greenback, headed for the worst month in a year as treasury yields also are down. the two year yield falling, the 10-year yield down also, all of this as we are seeing fed swaps anticipating over 100 basis points cuts by the end of 2024. u.s. stocks did manage to rise marginally. u.s. futures muted at the open in the asian session, after the s&p 500 already rallied about 8% for the month of november. we are digesting, u.s. consumer

confidence rising for the first time in four months. more fed speak suggesting that perhaps rate hikes may be over. take a look at the after our session for apple. wall street journal just reporting it's pulling the plug on its credit card partnership with goldman sachs. people speaking to the wall street journal saying the tech giant center proposal to goldman to exit from the contract in the next roughly 12-15 months. we will delve into all these stories with our next guest joining us in the new york studio. great to have you with us. how much are we pricing in those rate cuts next year? erin: right now, wall street is looking at something even within the first half of the year. we've seen different expectations, different polls,

but right now we really do see pricing in that they're expecting rather soon. we may be disappointed, we have certainly heard a lot of dovish comments, but it's all about staying stable, and given the unemployment rate and where we are, well within the 3%, we are sort of stuck at that 3% inflation rate. we might have to wait until the second half of the year before we see it move, but for now the optimism is there and the bond market is treating it as if they expect cuts sooner rather than later. shery: we are seeing the optimism with the shopping season, we are headed into the holidays. erin: even within consumer discretionary, i think there are some opportunities, very stock specific, but we really have

been seeing a growing trend for retailers. this smaller things you don't have to finance, honestly, but unique brands are able to sell well and we've seen that really help their sales and their stock prices as we see some positive news in the consumer area. shery: so far we have seen large companies able to absorb the hit from rising prices. what about the small and mid-caps? they have been out of favor for a while now. can they come back in vogue? erin: i do believe so, that we have been waiting for two years. they have been able to maintain their margins. we have seen a lot of these, particularly your bigger small caps, able to maintain margins and profitability and maintain revenues because the u.s. consumer has been so willing to

spend and they have been able to pass on these prices. really the only thing that has come down is there a you asian's. as they just get more and more compressed as they continue to underperform your large camps. i know a lot of us, you just look at these valuations and say these guys are on sale cheap, and just waiting for that turnaround. but again, it's all around that bond market, these yields have to come down. some of that confidence has to come back up. shery: can you go down the market cap level in order to get some of that diversification within the growth space? erin: yes, there are some small caps that have been performing well, anything this high-margin, high cash flow, software services in the s&p mid-cap is up about 33% year to date.

that does sound great, that is below the same industry in the s&p 500. if you're ready for some diversification, if you feel like you're valuations are a little top-heavy and you want to take some money off the megacap area, there are some great opportunities but i would be very cautious about anything that has high debt levels. you're really looking for those high-margin, high cash flow companies like software and those kind of services. shery: when it comes to bargains that might be found, the msci asia-pacific gaining 3% as opposed to double digit gains this year already. are there any sectors overseas that might appeal to you where the risk premium is not that high? erin: that is difficult, because

for so long come there seem to be so many opportunities, particularly within the china investment space. right now, just considering the headwinds around the negative economics, i think there are selective opportunities if you are willing to take more high risk bets within the ai space within china, but again, very high risk. but they have been so beaten up so they do look like there are some opportunities there. shery: we are seeing dollar weakness, how do you position in those multinationals that have to operate overseas as well? erin: as we've seen dollar weakness, how that might make some of the european stocks look more attractive as the euro has gained strength. we still see continued

underperformance and i still prefer a u.s. small-cap or mid-cap that has less international exposure to mitigate any weakness from outside the u.s.. right now that change, unless you are investing directly in futures, i'm not taking into play just yet. shery: always great to get your insights. coming up, new zealand central bank may push back against that said it will start to loosen policy next year. a preview of today's rate decision, just ahead. first, israel says hamas has released more hostages as both sides accuse each other of truce violations. details next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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shery: take a look at how treasuries futures are trading at the moment after we saw them gaining ground in the new york session come on speculation of that dovish pivot coming from the fed. we're now hearing from bill ackman, betting that the federal reserve will begin cutting interest rates sooner than markets are predicting. bill ackman is betting that the fed will cut rates as soon as the first quarter. he is making those comments to david rubenstein. he is not really convince the u.s. economy is headed for so-called soft landing, and he says there is a real risk of a hard landing if the fed doesn't start cutting rates pretty soon. bill ackman now betting that the fed will in fact cut rates as soon as the first quarter. haidi: israel says some says

turned over 12 more hostages to the red cross. the two sides earlier accuse each other of violating the deal . we were talking yesterday about whether there were any breaches in the cease-fire and it appears there are accusations from both signs that there were. >> the stories that there were three explosions that injured is rainy soldiers. there is not a lot of detail on it. en masse military spokesman said they violated the conditions of the pause but did not elaborate on what it was. it was not at a level where it would threaten the pause at this state, but there has been some to and fro-ing and there have been some injuries but we are

not sure of the state of those. the two sides are sort of agreeing that the pause will go on and that the women and children -- what happens with the men and the soldiers, that is sort of a separate question. one of the theories was on october 7 when hamas initially attacked israel with the swarm of militants coming across the border, they were not actually aiming to capture women and children, they were looking for israeli soldiers. palestinian political prisoners held by israel, what they found was the theory suggests that holding women and children is very difficult in a war zone. from the hamas side it's almost

relief from a burden being able to hand out these women and children. it is positive to get as many of their people back as they can, but the soldiers are an outstanding issue there. shery: we know the ongoing conflict with hamas is putting a toll on benjamin netanyahu's government as well. we've seen a revised 2023 budget . what is the latest? >> this only just came out recently, but the issue at hand there is that there is quite a lot of largess to the right wing parties that make up the coalition that keeps net and yahoo! and power. it has created a source of contention that he is turn to these parties, hard right parties in order to remain in power as he has some legal

issues going on domestically. the question is, during a war, do you really want to be handing out the sort of things when the country should be united and standing as one against hamas and trying to maintain its fiscal condition as well as possible rather than giving political handouts for issues like education and putting more settlers in the west bank, which is already a very volatile region. though settlers have been at the heart of a lot of the violence that erupted there. so it is likely to promote more debate. one of the members of his own party motioned against the revised budget and the opposition did as well. so there's a lot of dissension there as well.

shery: the latest there on the israel-hamas war. the world is in the midst of earnings season for chinese tech giants. fighting to buy back up to $1 billion of shares, after investors were left disappointed by its earnings. annabelle is in hong kong. what else are we hearing about the share repurchase from meit uan? >> it was $1 billion, the purchase will be starting friday of this week. something that was already authorized by the board, but the company announcing it in just the hat -- last half hour or so. it's a for some we've seen it conducting a share repurchase program since its listing back in 2018. the company said it's really

about generating confidence in the business outlook. when you consider the earnings that came through on tuesday, perhaps it is necessary for the company to do this as well. even though sales came in in line, it was willie the outlook that led to that big drop initiative, down the most in most -- more than a year. the company says people that usually use this could be taking advantage of unseasonably warm weather in china and that could force people to eat out, or they could choose to eat out instead of ordering food at home. so that could hit on its sales are revenue. meituan flagging that spending on promotions will be risings -- rising in that is a concern for

investors. pdd has also been spending are using promotions to expand its market share but it doesn't appear to be working. that was one of the key takeaways from the earnings. stronger than anticipated revenue, actually nearly double for the current quarter, about 25% higher than the average revenue estimate. the main focus that came out of the earnings was the shopping app temu, which has been a top performer. it has been using discounts or try to lure shoppers away from the likes of amazon and shein as well. it could end up being quite disruptive in global e-commerce, given that it has followed the same strategy of cut rate

splicing, it just has been able to expand more aggressively across markets and to customers. >> rbnz expected to keep the cash rate on hold at 5.5%. paul allen joins us now with more. the market is really kind of itching for that. paul: we can anticipate a bit of cold water on that in today's remarks. inflation has cooled off a bit more thanted. some of the remarks leading up to this suggests that buyers are still on the hawkish side.

in august it did raise its forecast track for the cash rate as well. we get to see revised forecast that could potentially change, but as it stands, the rbnz not forecasting cuts until the fourth quarter of next year. shery: and the governors likely to? paul: one would anticipate he would be quite diplomatic at batting those questions away, but we will wait to see. the bank has previously said he does not comment on current or hypothetical government policy. of course we do have new governments in new zealand composed of three parties that have put together new ideas for reform. also a time is under consideration to get inflation back to the target range.

some banks do have such time frames. rbnz said the consultation table toward the end of last year does not favor the idea because it can limit options in terms of policy, but we will wait and see. haidi: you can get around up of the stories you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. you can customize your settings so you just get the news on the industries and assets that you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪

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shery: welcome back.

berkshire hathaway has announced the death of charles monger who was 99 your soul. he help develop the investment powerhouse. we know that he never rivaled buffett in terms of worldwide celebrity, but he had his own personality and character that got him his own cult following. what did he bring to this company? >> i think he pushed buffett, he challenged him intellectually. he was an early investor in byd in china. buffett now has huge stakes in japanese companies. there were some element of intellectual prowess that monger brought to the operation that pushed buffett to what he could be. haidi: he had his own what he called groupies, a pretty firm fan base.

what was he like as a person and how did he deal with all that attention? >> in some ways he kind of enjoyed it. they both brought thousands of fans to omaha every year to omaha, but munger drew a big crowd to los angeles where he was chairman of that board. it speaks to his abilities to attract a lot of followers. he pushed the envelope and really spoke his mind. he wasn't afraid to call bitcoin noxious poison. he was not afraid to speak his mind. shery: will his actions affect? the operation of the company? >> they have two other vice chairman they named back in 2018 to be in charge. berkshire will often continue as it was, but i think his absence will definitely be felt.

shery: the latest on charles munger who died peacefully at a california hospital at the age of 99. we have more to come on "daybreak: asia." ♪♪ this is bloomberg. you want to be able to provide your child with the tools or resources they need. with reliable internet at home, through the internet essentials program, the world opened up. fellas, fellas. that's how my son was able to find the hidden genius project. we wanted to give y'all the necessary skills

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>> we are experiencing some adjustable's. such adjustment is beneficial for the transition of china's economic environment. in the short run, we should be focused on mitigating the transition process. haidi: shery: -- shery: the company's deepening property route is pushing china's central bank for quantitative easing, a style of policy had long criticized. we are seeing the pboc now providing this low-cost funding through so-called pledged supplemental lending. when it was seen china used his policy and how have those differed from the past. >> it is the policy that is --

if confirmed and implemented it represents the latest ever to address the housing slump. the program was first used in -- between 2014-2019 and the program was successful, prices rallied and surged, but at the same time prices are -- arose in double digits in many cities around china. at this time the program we heard is going to be about one trillion, so in terms of scale it is much smaller than the previous round. we also heard from sources that this time around it will be more

targeted, mainly aimed at bigger cities which will account for only 1/5 of china's housing sales. the impact will be much smaller. it is called quantitative easing because a central bank lends money to policy banks and that will result in expansion of central banks balance sheet and more printing. haidi: does that indicate a fundamental shift when it comes to how they are approaching housing policy? what is the long-term outlook there? >> china's policymakers have made it loud and clear that the long-term plan is to shift the economy's reliance on investment and exports lead to greater

consumption. they are playing to bigger role in the economy. too much money is being used to repay mortgages. that does not bode well for long-term consumption. the long-term strategy is to shift to consumption. don't think the government is keen to see another round of speculator frenzy. let's bring in andrew collier, always great to have you with us. in a lot of ways, it feels like as we go 2024, the chinese

economy and leisure finds itself at the existential point of having to choose the path ahead. do you think it will force real change this time, by necessity if not ideology? >> existential implies you either live or die. at this point i think that will scramble around with a broken leg for the next decade or so. the notion of the consumer is completely wrong, because the policies, the government has to put money into high areas like semiconductors. there is very little effort to transfer cash to the consumers. the structural adjustment is not from property. it is a -- away from property

because it is good, it is a bubble. the state on, kind of tech driven future that is imprinted on xi jinping's mind, a playbook he picked up basically from the last 30 years of chinese history of state owned operations, and he is very comfortable without a playbook. nobody believes it will be that effective in driving growth going forward. haidi: the major -- negative cycle is a major part of what they're grappling with. do you think something like direct payments would be more effective? >> yes, exactly. especially since are moving toward a general report.

they have the tools, it is just that they are not willing to do that. they are unwilling to make the changes, to make the consumer part of the economy. shery: the latest moves that we talked with charlie earlier about chinese talk quantitative easing. do those help without that stimulation of demand coming from consumers? andrew: no, it's all symbols, basically. they are trying to say we are trying to help the property market. somehow that will get rid of something like 60 trillion yuan of debt or more, determining what you include in that.

everybody says the government can control everything, it's got enough money. so the government tries to pretend that it can through these little symbolic measures. a lot of chinese citizens are aware of that so people are leaving, obviously. the property market is failing to show resurgence except in a few pockets, because people are skeptical that the government has enough capital to make the whole machine go back to the good old days of 10 years ago. shery: how much are you worried about contagion? not to mention the big shadow banking giants now under investigation. >> the latest one turned out to have half the amount of assets as liabilities. i'm concerned about contagion in that there's a lot of people

involved in the property market. you have the state owned banks, 75% of debt tied up in the trust that are running the property margin. that's what i'm concerned with, there is a structural problem, and inability of people or governments to pay salaries, and there is a lack of jobs. i'm not concerned with contagion in the lehman brothers financial crisis type of thing. we are not talking about tradable products on the shanghai stock exchange. the dead is mainly held by number financial institutions, some of them well-regulated like the banks, others like the trust. the central government and the pboc have some ability to slow the rate of descent. so more concerned about the structural adjustment long-term than about an immediate collapse of the financial system. haidi: we know that bad loans or

however you want to refer to them are rising as a result of the pressure on the property sector. we know the playbook of issuance of bonds with how they're trying to revive growth. if you look at moving from one hand to the other, as it has always been for china, cannot just go on indefinitely? >> the government is pushing its supplementary lending to the cities. they will basically squeeze the rural area as they been doing since the revolution in 1949 and they're going to squeeze it with property woes now. people are losing the value of a lot of unfinished places. people where unemployment is significant, though it is underreported because we don't have a lot of data. there's a conscious decision on the part of the leadership to

that do not have the power to protest. the adjustment is occurring, governments are cutting salaries and half are not paying them. it is happening on such a scale that it is filtered out through the entire system in areas where there is very little information about the adjustment going on. haidi: before we get to the evergreen demographics issue, is there a way to address that, because typically with her the countries, you see that immigration is one of the ways. you see that for china, or domestic immigration and reforms to that end? andrew: no, the real issue is,

evergrande's debt is $300 billion or so, it is huge. that is going to be a real struggle. i keep going back to this, i get this question from investors all the time, what can save the economy? nothing can. the semiconductors are not going to turn things around. you've got success in ev exports. there is basically a structural adjustment that has to be made. recently, xi has been pushing the idea of a rules-based international order trying to increase china's participation in it. that's because they need the u.s. dollar. you've got trade, the supply chain issue.

haidi: always great to have you with us, andrew. >> in the market session today we are focusing on the fed and the expectation for cuts building next year. deadwood tell you that markets are pricing reduction fully by june of next year. about an 80% chance it should happen by may. we are hearing more investor saying perhaps the moves, the reduction from the fed will come even sooner than that. bill ackman has given a big interview to bloomberg. one of the key takeaways from

that is, he is saying the fed could cut by the first quarter. the market reaction we are seeing based off the fed being done with its tightening cycle is coming through with a softer dollar. yields continue to retreat but led by the front end. stocks position for a day in the green. the rbnz is in focus, as its rate decision is coming up in about 90 minutes from now. we expect policymakers to keep the key rate on hold at 5.5% for a fourth straight meeting. all the economists in the survey are seeing that happen but it comes down to the messaging. we could see the rbnz pushing back haidi: still ahead, we will

look at oil, and a dead lookover output levels. and the fed may be at peak rates. this is bloomberg. ♪

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minister, but i don't think we will need as much oil in the future. if you want to reach her climate targets, oil and gas consumption needs to decline significantly. i hope the companies are part of the solution, they are partners. shery: opec-plus members remained deadlocked over saudi proposal to make deeper cuts to oil output. some predicting they will have to postpone the already delayed thursday meeting. su keenan joins us. wti futures extending slightly the gains we saw in new york. su: we saw a turnaround to the three-day slide in oil prices.

a lot has to do with the fed signaling that the rate hike cycle may be complete or at peak rate. one delegate has indicated there may indeed be at a second delay in this all-important meeting to determine output, cuts, or quotas or 2024. african members, angola and nigeria are pushing back. in london there was a 2% gain in brent crude and also to percent gain in new york trading. meanwhile, if you drop in to the bloomberg, you will see hedge funds have been increasingly bearish. cutting long positions in brent and west texas intermediate to the lowest since june. that black see storm is interrupting some oil exports

from kazakhstan. haidi: china's biggest refiner sinopec is seeking approval to boost its exports. su: trader saint may be another sign of lackluster demand coming out of china. china is the biggest importer, and sources tell us they're asking beijing for an additional 800,000 tons of product. haidi: veteran investor bill ackman says he sees the fed cutting rates as soon as the first quarter of 2024. he spoke to david rubenstein who asked him whether the u.s. can avoid a recession. >> i think it's really hard to predict. i do think the economy is weakening. we are seeing evidence of that

at some of our countries. there is been a huge subsidy in terms of interest rates. most companies fix their debt at very low rates and certainly the instead did the same. and that works until it doesn't work. what will be interesting is to see what happens when people have to reprice their debt, and that can have a cliff like effect. we are certainly seeing that in real estate. >> the markets are assuming there will be a fed discount cut sometime next year. as we talk now, about the end of november, it's not tear with the fed will do. some people say if they were to cut interest rates next year, it would help the democrats. on the other hand, some said the fed cannot wait until after the election because the economy might need a stimulus. >> i think they will cut rates sooner than people expect.

the real rate of interest ultimately, keeps him cleat -- increasing as the fed rate declines. if inflation is trending below 3%, that is a high rate of interest. and then again, many businesses have benefited. i think there is a risk of a hard landing if the fed doesn't start cutting rates pretty soon. the market expects sometime the middle of next year. i think it is more likely as early as q1. >> they have played catch up and increased rates considerably since that time. do you think the fed made a mistake in not handling inflation differently in the beginning?

how have they done since i started increasing interest rates? >> they certainly made a mistake. i think that they caught up -- you want to make sure, chairman powell's desire not to have a legacy of contributing to long-term inflation does not cause him to make the opposite mistake. >> the market expectation is the middle of next year, july or something like this for the beginnings of easing. >> the economy will likely demand an earlier move. i don't think of the fed is a political institution. i think they are trying to do the right thing. haidi: you can watch that full interview on line.

this is the picture as we look at bonds trading across australia and new zealand. a big factor today will be what we hear from the rbnz, not necessarily what they do. any moves we see in kiwi's is down to the communications of that press conference and how aggressively with rate cuts coming for the rbnz. plenty more to come here on "daybreak: asia." this is bloomberg. ♪ need to get tested." she feels like it was truly lifesaving.

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shery: you are watching "daybreak: asia." apple preparing to wind down its credit card partnership with goldman sachs. wall street journal cite sources saying apple is proposing an exit between 12-15 months i would in the partnership that was once seen as a major growth opportunity for the two companies. amazon is rolling out a workplace chatbot called amazon

q, designed to write code and review business metrics. the retailers cloud computing division is infusing generative ai into more products. microsoft and google have announced similar moves. take a look at how austrian stocks are trading right now, health care and consumer discretionary leading the decline but utility slightly in the red. decisions to leave rate unchanged for a fourth straight meeting. this is bloomberg. ♪

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shery: this is "daybreak: asia." we saw gains in u.s. stocks and treasuries and had more comments from fed officials suggesting an extension of the rate hike pause in the tightening cycle, something we might see with the rbnz as well. haidi: it's all about pushing back against a pivot trade. markets are looking at the kiwi dollar and kiwi bonds are itching for more signals we could see easing imminently. let's get you straight to annabel for a look at the market open. >> those matches doing expectations from in our b&c will be key for the direction of trading new zealand today but the open here for korea and japan just coming online, seeing the start of trade for cash treasuries and we will continue

to watch that retreat coming through in treasury yields if it extends into the session this morning. what is driving that comes down to what we heard from fed officials, expectation building in the market that we could be done with that hikes. the next move seen as a cut instead. the expectation is fully priced in for a cut by june of next year and an 80% chance of it happening by may. bill ackman saying he's betting the fed will cut rates as soon as the first quarter of next year. that's really the expectation this morning. it has been dollar weakness coming throughout the back of that. the japanese yen back down, the nikkei a little bit flat as we come online. let's look at what's happening in korea this morning, trading for the kospi a little bit mixed

. the tech heavy index is outpacing the broader gauge there. the korean won back below the 1300 mark but were looking ahead to what happens with central banks in korea as well. we're expecting a hold from the be ok but -- from the bok. they had been tipped as one of the first central banks in asia that could cut -- start to cut rates, but that has been significantly pushed back. we've got expectations building around the rbnz decision as you said, the expectation is for hold, keeping the key rate at 5.5%. the message from officials will be key to how we see trading direction. the kiwi dollar firm against the

dollar weakness story as well. honesty stocks one hour into the session, slightly firmer but inflation dead is also due at the bottom of this hour. another key data set for us to keep an eye on. haidi: our next guest is achieved global strata list. -- strategist. in terms of what real rates are at and where expectations are going to fall, we heard from bill ackman earlier were saying he thinks the fed may cut rates sooner is the real fed funds rate goes up. inflation is close to 2%. you think the territory we are in now is sufficiently restrictive and should we be having these conversations about if and when we see this pivot? >> i guess i would say it is sufficiently restrictive at this

moment, although if there is too much declaration of victory, then inflationary concerns can start to increase again, if fed cut expectation start to accelerate rapidly. we might've seen a bit of that last night with most commodities up rudy sharply. so it is important not to declare victory to arley. haidi: where are investors position going into the end of the year? it looks like we are building up for a santa claus rally. john: a consensus certainly is for a decent outlook ahead in the quarters ahead. i would say 100% consistence -- i would not say 100% consensus. it's a relatively goldilocks

scenario with moderating inflation and slow but decent growth. because it is not 100% consensus, a lot of people have yet to be converted to this. the outlook for markets could be quite decent if things turn out the way the consensus expects. haidi: the weakness we've seen in the dollar has given a little bit of a gift when it comes to policy makers in japan, that we're seeing some of the pressure being taken off again. depending on what the fed does, how to set potentially impact expectations for the boj? >> a lot depends on how you measure it. japanese equities in u.s. dollar terms have not done remarkably well. they are up this year, but not anything close to the local currency terms. of course we could see a

converse sort of relationship with the yen strengthening in the stock market being rather sluggish or even negative like futures are pointing out today. however, a stronger yen will be a tremendous relief to politicians, to consumers, to almost everybody in japan. i'm sure they're very happy to see the yen go off 150 level. haidi: so you're still pretty constructive when it comes to the top picks for next year. where do you see the new areas for focus? john: our forecasts are little bit stale. we made them in september, but for the most part, we expect the nikkei to hit about 35,000 by

september of next year and the yen to appreciate a bit further than where it is now. as for sectors, i would not specialize too much and that. obviously the end is strengthening and some of the sectors that have done so well last year, that would reverse. the same time that the yen is strengthening, that would be quite good for a lot of valued sectors. haidi: it's a season when we start having conversations about the year ahead. what excites you going into 2024? john: well, if we could just

have a relatively peaceful year, that would be very exciting. it has been a rough couple of years for everybody. especially people who counted on traditional models, people have been very surprised and disappointed by the high level of inflation and the continued high interest rates associated with such. i will say that on the geopolitical front, there is some clear hope that things might settle down. it's been a wild ride this year, especially recently. it will be tremendous for markets if geopolitical headway were to be alleviated. as for markets, given what i said before, if things are as

semi-goldilocks as i mentioned, along with consensus, then equity markets globally should do quite well. it seems that europe is struggling more than other markets, but japan and the u.s. could do quite well in the year ahead, especially as i mentioned before, japan could do much better even in this current year. haidi: more to come here on "daybreak: asia." this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> we are seeing some

adjustments. such adjustment is beneficial for the foundation of china's economic development, but in the short-term, we should focus on mitigating the transition forces. china's economy on the whole has continued to gain momentum in recovering. gdp growth by 5.2%, they are expected to achieve the target for the whole year. haidi: china's central bank governor there. pushing the central bank toward quantitative easing, estella policy it is only criticized.

charlie, we are talking about potentially seeing the so-called supplemental lending. how has it been used in the past and what can we see in terms of targeted measures. >> the policy if implemented would represent the latest in a series of efforts by the chinese government to arrest a slump in housing market. this is nothing new. china has used that before between 2014-2019. china pledged supplemental lending to help prop up housing and fuel the asset bubble as housing prices rose sharply across the country. today's housing problem according to some critics is called quantitative easing.

led by the local government and using that for redeveloping substandard housing and replacing them with high-rises. that is how the program works. that results in money creation and expansion of the central bank's balance sheet. probably china will be more cautious about using this tool. it will be only one trillion yuan compared with three or four yuan -- trillion yuan in the previous round. if implemented it will be more targeted. we heard is going to be mainly used in major cities, which will

account for only 20% of china's total sales. haidi: does it indicate a shift when it comes to their position on housing policy? what is the long-term outlook? >> china definitely doesn't want to see a meltdown of the bond market because it is still too important for the whole economy. the profit center along with related industries such as furniture and renovation account for 25% of overall gdp. he does not want to see them collapse in the man that at the same time doesn't want to see another new round of speculated frenzy in the housing market. the long-term strategy of china's policymakers is to gradually cut china's reliance on investment and exports for growth and gradually shift anymore focus to consumption.

currently, the role played by the market in the global economy is too big. too much housel wealth is tied to property. by some estimates 80% of china reaches the mainstream. the long-term is to gradually shift the focus to something more sustainable. haidi: charlie their reporting from shanghai. a veteran investor says cc the fed cutting rates as soon as the first quarter of 2024. he spoke to david rubenstein who ask him whether the u.s. can avoid a recession. >> i think it's really hard to predict. i do think the economy is weakening. we are seeing evidence of that in some of our companies.

i have some concerns. there has been a huge subsidy in terms of low interest rates and most companies fix their rates or their debit. certainly real estate investors did the same. that works until it doesn't work. it can have a cliff like effect. we are seeing that in real estate. >> the markets are assuming there will be a fed discount cut sometime next year. as we talk now at the end of november, it's not there was a fed will do but some people say the fed, if they were to cut interest rates next your, would help the democrats, and others say the fed cannot wait until after the election because the economy might need a stimulus. >> i think they're going to cut rates sooner than people expect.

what is happening is the real rate of interest, ultimately, which is what impacts the economy, keeps increasing as inflation clients. if the fed keeps rates in the middle fives and inflation is trending below 3%, it's a very high real rate of interest, and that is having a retarding effect on the economy. and then of course, again, many businesses and individuals have the benefit of fixed rate that. i think there is a risk of a hard landing if the fed does not start cutting rates pretty soon. i think the market expects sometime the middle of next your. i think it is more likely as early as q1. >> they have played catch up increased rates considerably since that time. do you think the fed made a mistake in not handling inflation differently in the beginning? and how have they done since i

started increasing interest rates? >> they have certainly made mistakes. i think they caught up so they get credit for acknowledging the mistake in getting pretty aggressive. you want to make sure chairman powell's desire not to contribute to long-term inflation does not cause him to make the opposite mistake. i think the market expectation is probably the middle of next year for the beginnings of easing. i think the economy will likely demand an earlier move. i don't think of this fed as a particularly political institution. i think they are trying to do the right thing. haidi: catch that interview with bill ackman debuting on december 6 at 9:00 p.m. in new york, here

on bloomberg television. the bank of new zealand expected to keep the country's cash right on hold at 5.5%. market will be watching for commentary signaling around possible easing to come in 2024. paul allen joins us with more. the market is prime for expectations of rate cuts. paul: we won't see a rate cut today. economists forecasting no change , but you are right, markets expect something. the jobs market easing more than expected and that is fueling these market expectations. we have heard the higher for a longer narrative coming out of the rbnz. we do get a new set of forecast today so some of the rhetoric could change. i think we can be fairly

confident that markets will be on the easing track that we are anticipating. >> what about reforms coming to the rbnz? paul: changing the act, chief of the lineup is getting rid of the unemployment part of it and focus on inflation which it has had in the past. there's another opinion in the offing, the idea of the new timeframe requiring the argan see to return inflation to target within a specific time period. if other central banks around the world have that. the bank of canada is not keen on that idea. saying there are limited in terms of policy response and the costs outweigh the benefits. probably they will take a few

questions on that in today's press conference. shery: paul allen with the preview of the rbnz rate decision later. more commentary and analysis from bloomberg's expert editors ahead. we are seeing asian bonds gain ground and follow treasuries gains. on speculation of a dovish pivot by the fed. we had seen a decline after weak results from the previous session. we are seeing a little bit of a reversal with the 10-year yield trending down at the moment. also seeing kiwi bonds gain ground ahead of the rbnz rate decision. this is bloomberg. ♪

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shery: you are watching "daybreak: asia." berkshire hathaway has announced the death of long time vice chairman charlesnumger. warren buffett is honoring his right hand man saying he helped shape berkshire hathaway. here's a look back on his life and legacy. >> he served as alter ego to warren buffett for almost 60 years as a transform berkshire hathaway from a failing textile maker into an empire. a lawyer by training, he helped

buffet craft a philosophy of investing companies for the long-term. in 1962, the two men began investing in berkshire hathaway, a massachusetts company that made men's suit linings. even after the mills close, berkshire stuck around as the vehicle for growing conglomerate of companies, focusing on businesses with strong brands and pricing power, munger urged him to acquiring see;s candies in 1962. that inspired a $1 billion investment in coca-cola stock years later. he and buffett -- he was known for his roles a straight man, he often curbed buffett's enthusiasm and he jokingly referred to him as the abominable no man.

his purchases of stock in chinese automaker byd resulted in berkshire becoming that company's largest shareholder. known for and wide as the oracle of omaha, munger's success without pass buffett's star power. >> its essential, given the momentum we now have in place. >> he did not overstate his importance either. there were two senior executives affirming the company's commitment to a succession plan. haidi: remembering charles munger who has died at the age

of 99. the man he built berkshire hathaway with, warren buffett, becoming a billionaire in the process. he was seen as a straight shooter who could say to buffett, you are not thinking straight. and in his own right, he had his own fan base. crowds would turn up whenever he would come to speak. he jokingly referred to his supporters as rupees. he never quite rivaled warren buffett in terms of worldwide celebrity, but he did have that following in his own right. lots more to come here on "daybreak: asia." this is bloomberg. (jennifer) the reason why golo customers have such long term success is because we focus on real foods in the right balance so you get the results you want. when i tell people how easy it was for me to lose weight on golo, they don't believe me. they don't believe i can eat real food and lose this much weight.

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haidi: we do have of course as

we continue to watch expectations from central banks, the readings when it comes to cpi in australia. we are seeing consumer prices for of tobit rising 4.9% year on year. that is a little softer than expectations of 5.2%. construction has risen 1.3% quarter on quarter, a little hotter than estimates of 0.3% for that gain. the year-on-year topple over number for cpi for october 4 .9%, just missing expectations of 5.2%. and really cooling significantly from the 5.6% reading we had in the previous month. this of course as we continue to hear from rba policymakers including the governor talking about stronger demand keeping inflation levels elevated within the country and putting a lot of the source of inflationary pressures have been domestic factors so not necessarily

supply chain effects we have seen globally. the rba saying they are seeing signs of second-round price effects start to take effect. that piece of data comes to slower than expected cpi of 4.9% for october as we head into the december 5 meeting, the final rba decision of the year. shery: take a look at that drop in the aussie dollar as you have just broken those cpi numbers. take a look at the broader trading session across asia right now. we are seeing some sectors in the green being led higher by consumer discretionary, real estate and health care at the moment. broadly speaking we are being weighed down by materials, industrials and financials. this of course coming as asia-pacific stocks are headed for the best month of the year. perhaps stalling a bit after the big gains. over the course of the year asian equities have actually trailed developed market stocks

but perhaps december we could see a turnaround if we go by seasonality, valuations, technical indicators. bloomberg data now showing the asia-pacific index has delivered better-than-average returns in december than the msci world. and we will be watching meituan when the stock trades in hong kong later after it announced plans to buy back up to $1 billion of shares. that came after investors were left as appointed by earnings. for more let's bring in our china tech reporters they are urging. -- sarah zheng. what went wrong in the results? sarah: what we saw as the results were in line with estimates largely but the problem is we are looking ahead for the fourth quarter growth outlook for next year and executives warned that the fourth quarter growth will slow for the food delivery business. that is something investors are

continuously concerned about and something the company said they would try to mitigate with greater marketing and subsidy spend to try and shore up that consumer demand even then -- even in this macro situation. haidi: how much margin risk is there for meituan going into 2024? sarah: they were saying they expect consumption to start to recover into the next year. the problem is we are seeing for some of their businesses, consumption trends have changed after covid so they are really going to have to step up on the subsidy and marketing spend to attract bank customers and rivalry in the e-commerce space in china and abroad is increasingly competitive. shery: investors were pretty happy to see those numbers. how did they do? sarah: they did tremendously well. their revenue was over 20% compared to estimates and net income was 47%.

that is based on the strong growth from their overseas shopping app. the u.s. has been competing and doing interim at his job. they are -- doing a tremendous job. and they have been expanding. so we will continue to see how that shores up their performance. haidi: china tech reporter sarah zheng in hong kong. a firm has grown more cautious on china, warning conflict might break out over taiwan. let's bring in patrick winters. this comes at a time where we are seeing president xi and other policymakers and diplomats from china trying to spread the message of being more open to international investment, of being more committed to the rule

of law when it comes to these potential deals. it is not necessarily something that is convincing everyone at the moment. patrick: that's right. we have seen heads -- news over the past year which seemed to indicate some kind of support. but the chinese markets are going nowhere. the wealth partners group said a reflection of that. even away from public markets looking at private equity he said a chinese deal these to bring a higher-than-expected return because you take much more risk. that is not just talking about the economic situation in china. he is also talking about a political risk. the risk china would ultimately do something with taiwan. he just said it a bit more openly than a lot of other executives. haidi: what other regions does

he like instead? patrick: in asia, he said that they are looking at thailand and vietnam. looking at things overall the only have about -- shery: other corporate stories we are following, apple is reportedly preparing to wind down its credit card accord with goldman sachs. the wall street journal cites sources saying apple is proposing an exit within 12 to 15 months. that would and a partnership once deemed as a major growth opportunity for the two companies. goldman has been pulling back to consumer lending after approved costlier than expected. amazon is rolling out a work waste chatbot called amazon cube, designed to help corporate customers write code and review business metrics. amazon -- is infusing generative

ai into more products. microsoft and google have announced similar moves. bloomberg has learned a merger between sony's india unit and z entertainment is in jeopardy over who will lead the new entity. sony may tell its potential partner that the demands for the merger could not be met. z wants its ceo to head the new company. sony is said to be wary of him, given the regulatory probe over the alleged siphoning of funds. haidi: we will be watching the big reaction when it comes to australian assets, really responding to the fact we see strong evidence building the case for an rba pause. the monthly inflation gauge capping two months of acceleration in october that supports the case of reserve

bank would resume the pausing of interest rates next week after the last meeting where we see them put through that hike. consumer prices rising 4.9% on the year. this is the first reading for the fourth quarter and lower than estimates. three year yields holding the drop on the data. we see the big drop when it comes to the aussie dollar as well. we are seeing the australian dollar, little more of a recovery. but we have seen so much of that being the dollar weakness story as well. we saw third quarter construction seeing a little bit more of a gain. but the biggest response markets wise has been the aussie dollar and the policy sensitive three year government bond deal. extending gains to about .5%. this will be very interesting as we get into the last rba meeting in the year, kevin governor bullock has been doubling down on the observation we have seen

a lot of these domestic secondary effects of inflation passing through in this part of the cycle. coming up next, we will of course be looking at the inflationary impact of the holiday season. all this travel we are seeing. we will be speaking about the future of the travel industry. international air travel approaching pre-pandemic levels. this is bloomberg. ♪

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shery: international air travel demand in the asia-pacific is catching up to other regions despite the continuing slow pace of recovery in china. that is according to the latest data from asia-pacific airlines. but the region is still seeing the lowest demand recovery globally and by a large margin in some cases. let's discuss with the association's director general subhas menon. how big of a wildcard is china still in this environment? subhas: china is the dragon that has awakened. i think it is still half sleepwalking. hopefully as we have the year of the dragon next year we will see china fully awoke to the prospects of air travel

recovery. shery: what is the outlook for the recovery of air travel in asia? we have set recovery has been slow but it is catching up. when can we start to see asia rival ring -- rivaling other regions? subhas: we are about 80% recovery in the asia-pacific region. if you take china way it is closer to 90%. china accounts for about 20% of the international traffic in the asia-pacific region. the closest to china is india of course, with half of that. so china's recovery is about one third of what it was. i think once chinese travelers start traveling in full force we will see asia-pacific recovery reaching a full recovery. i would say that would take

until probably the middle of next year. but in terms of qualitative recovery, asia-pacific region is really there. flights are full, airports are congested, and tourism establishments are attracting tourists. of course other headwinds, fuel prices have been very high, and it is still much higher than what it was in 2019. of course supply chain constraints, increasing cost of operations for the airlines. also taxation and related costs are on the rise. these are also things that we should generally bear in mind. inflation, macroeconomic factors are not conducive. in spite of all of that i think air travel recovery is moving

along very quickly. and next year we will be back to where we were. haidi: you had your recent annual gathering with all the airlines in singapore. what was top of mind? what is the biggest concern at the moment, and what is the biggest concern going into 2024? subhas: the biggest focus for the industry and also for asia-pacific airlines is aviation sustainability. as you know, the industry has few alternatives to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. sustainable aviation fuel is the most effective measure. unfortunately, the supply of sustainable aviation fuel, or saf, is only about 0.1% of the airline's needs. so every assembly, the association announced a goal of

5% saf use by 2030. so this is an objective goal, but also an indication of demand for the oil and gas majors to provide the necessary supply for governments, to put the necessary supply framework in place. so they can achieve net zero emission status. apart from that of course, recovery being talked about, air travel recovery, but also profitability. the airlines are now reporting operating profits. and that is a good sign. the airlines are in a position to also pursue sustainable air travel growth by 2050. haidi: we talked a little bit about sustainability. i do wonder though, it's curious that the organization as a

target has 5% of using sustainable aviation fuel through 2030.we saw that big milestone being achieved by virgin. major airlines mostly are about 10% for their benchmark. should there be more ambition here? subhas: well, i think we're looking at where we are today. only 0.1% of the airline's needs. the industry is targeting 2% between now and 2030. so 5%, it's still a very ambitious target. but i think the bottom thing is to get the supply up. airlines will make use of every ounce of sustainable aviation fuel being produced. the bottom thing is to get the fuel majors, the governments to get on board and provide the

necessary support framework and supply of saf for airlines to make use of this. don't forget, airlines don't produce any of these things. they rely on producers to supply the necessary fuel. haidi: always great to chat with you. subhas menon there. virgin atlantic has flown the world's first commercial aircraft powered entirely by sustainable aviation fuel. the flight landed in new york tuesday. on board were richard branson, virgin atlantic ceo, and the u.k. transport secretary mark harper. more investment is needed for the industry to adopt reader fuels made from sources including waste oils and nonfood crops. the u.s. has subsidized production of clean fuel with deep tax breaks. well, sticking with the energy transition, world leaders and

business chiefs are headed for dubai for the u.n.'s latest round of climate negotiations. we asked what she hopes to see from cop28, with the world on track for its hottest year yet. >> this cop will all be about global stock-taking. here, we will be looking at the commitments we have made from the paris agreement that we already signed in 2015. here, we looked at limiting global warming to a max of two degrees. maybe even 1.5 degrees. if you look at the recent united nations report, we are heading for 2.4 degrees trajectory, which i think is very undesirable. whether or not it is feasible, what would be a very good outcome is if we released with all the nations is to commit 10% of that and go back to a 2.2 degrees celsius approach. this would drive policy-setting.

the other part is more the loss and the damage fund. one of the absolute wins of the recent cop27. here, what we will struggle with is how do we get the results and how do we make this tangible? i think nations are still struggling over who pays the bill for support of developing countries. it would be great if you have these 24 nations to reconfirm their contributions to the loss and damage funds. and also have the 199 countries present to acknowledge that. shery: be sure to tune into bloomberg radio to hear more. get analysis from the daybreak team, broadcasting live from our studio in hong kong. listen to the app, or bloombergradio.com. plenty more ahead. stay with us. ♪

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shery: gains in the japanese against the u.s. dollar. dollar-yen falling below the 100 day moving average for the first time since april. we have not seen the japanese yen trade below the 147 level since two months ago or so. so we are talking now about the

strongest level against the u.s. dollar since july, or around those levels at the moment. japanese yen, 1.4685 against the u.s. dollar. as we see weakness in the u.s. dollar, at the lowest level since august given we are seeing treasuries extending the rally on expectations of a fed pivot towards rate cuts. haidi: well, looking at hong kong's first etf tracking, to mark the account are the stock exchange is hosting a saudi investment forum. annabelle is down there. what is going on over there? annabelle: yeah, a lot of interest and enthusiasm and excitement from what is happening in hong kong. i am here at the hong kong stock exchange and there is an etf tracking saudi companies that will start trading in about a half an hour. any mainland chinese investors looking for exposure into chinese into saudi companies,

this will be the key way to do it. about the etf itself, it will be tracking the ftse saudi arabia index, an index with a market cap of nearly $280 billion. it has 56 constituents. the etf itself will be mostly composed of financials, then basic materials, energy as well, and some well-known names. the likes of saudi aramco, saudi national bank, saudi telecom. investor appetite is pretty healthy because subscriptions are coming in north of $1 billion. shery: that is really interesting. what is behind that appetite for saudi assets? annabelle: it is pretty interesting. it is a very deliberate choice that has come through from the asset manager issuing the etf this morning. what it is liking about saudi arabia is the growth prospects for the kingdom itself and the push saudi arabia has been

making to diversify its economy. over the course of this year we have really seen that oil sector and the oil economy pulling back as saudi arabia is the oil exporter of the world. it has been issuing supply cuts. at the same time the nonoil sectors of the economy have been able to cushion that to a point. see sop is also optimistic about the outlook for the saudi arabian exchange. it is not quite in the top 10 globally but it has a plan to get into that group and also quite positive on the market reports saudi arabia has been pushing through to try and diversify its investor base. as for the hong kong connection, there is precedent for that because in seven -- february this year john lee traveled to saudi arabia to trying to spark investor interest in the city as well. it is an indication that we are seeing those ties continue to deepen between china and the middle east.

haidi: annabelle droulers there. take a look at some stocks we are watching is the markets get set to open for trading in hong kong and mainland china. meituan is in focus. warnings of slower growth. also watching alibaba health. it could be a mover after agreeing to -- keeping a watch when it comes to developers. the chinese ai company heading back on a short seller accusation it has been inflating those revenue numbers. that is just about it for "daybreak asia. we're looking ahead to the start of trading in hong kong. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ the first time you made a sale online with god was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. we just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. start for free at godaddy.com

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