>> you're watching "bloomberg markets: asia," coming to you live from new york, new york, city of hong kong. annabelle: we are counting down to asia's major market opens. >> australia death came online, the top stories does our -- the global bond rally gaining more traction as investors bet that the fed can start cutting within the first half of next year. we would be speaking life the rbnz governor adrian or, to go over the said's hawkish hold and what comes next. and president xi goes to shanghai for the first time since the pandemic lockdowns. and of course we are looking ahead to the bank of korea decision. ahead of that, though, we are looking ahead to south korea october industrial output numbers, industrial production falling 3.5% month on land. the industrial output number in the year on year basis seeing a rise of 1.4%.

the cyclical leading index for october rising just zero point 3% month-on-month as well. this as we are looking to the back of korea decision. it is really kind of looking more to 2024. export growth in particular also slowed on top of the weakness in industrial production that has just come through in those numbers. the bok is poised to keep its benchmark rate study on thursday, the last decision of the year for a number of the central banks. and we are looking at, along with many other central banks, the timing of the expected easing cycle to come. annabelle: that's right, it is really the assessment of when our going to start seeing central banks cutting rates. bloomberg intelligence saying the bok may not be until august of next year. we have the open for the asx 200. you have stocks sitting fairly flat, but it really is the

action in the bond space, still that continued retreat of yields across the curve. a bit more subdued at the ten-year mark. that three year yield, the more rate-sensitive one telling us that investors are positioning now that the fed is not only done with its current tensioning cycle, but also that we could start seeing cuts within the first half of next year. lower yields, softer dollar are also supporting factors for asian equities generally. let's look at what we're seeing for asia ex-japan. we are seeing inflows. set for the best monthly inflows since may of this year. it is that story of a softer dollar, the expectations around the fed, lower yields. and also the cheapness. these stocks are still looking quite expensive compared to their developed market peers. we could be said for some outperformance of e.m. asia ex-

japan. the santa claus rally is still intact in this part of the world. vonnie: exciting for those long the stoxx. it's an update tomorrow for equities in the u.s. the s&p 500 finished the session down 0.1%. but s&p futures and nasdaq 100 futures pointing higher. in the tech world, people are looking towards the cybertruck event out of you learn musk's tesla coming in the thursday session. we saw oil in the wednesday session put on more than 2%. looks like that might be getting erased just a little bit with oil trading at 70%, down 0.2%. in the bond space we are seeing the rally and it looks to be continuing again. if futures are an indication. we have fed speak talking about pausing and adding support to that, we had loretta mester

today and raphael bostic also, and the economic data is what was better-than-expected in some instances, particularly third-quarter gdp revisions which came in at 5.2%, better-than-expected for the quarter. haidi: let's get more insights from bloomberg's u.s. economist. he joins us now. what did we learn from today's release, and how does it or does it not change the calculus when it comes to the increasing gap that we are seeing for market expectations and what fed speakers are signaling? >> the q3 release does little to change either our understanding of the broader economy, or the fed path. q3 data was already a gangbusters quarter. if anything, what might be hiding below the surface is the fact that estimates of inventories, both retail and wholesale inventories for october came in below estimates, actually declining and setting the stage for some pretty

serious headwinds in quarter over quarter growth space. what investors might have been thinking in terms of momentum building from the third quarter into the fourth quarter, i think those hopes were dashed. compare that with the fed speak, remaining on pause in the next move being a cut, it helps explain the dramatic move we have seen in the bond market, particularly in 2-year yields. vonnie: we are definitely seeing the softening of economic conditions globally, in the oecd pointer to that in their report on wednesday and basically said we will not see conditions back to the pre-pandemic norm until 2025 which was a bit of a shocker someways that it was such a definitive statement from the think tank. stuart: that's right, it is a bit shocking that it is such a definitive statement from folks like the economist at the oecd, but what should he be so shocking is that we have had one of the fastest developed market

monetary tightening cycles in memorable history. it is becoming increasingly evident that monetary policy is gaining traction in the real economy, as we were just hearing in the previous segment. industrial production in south korea declining, or at least we are seeing slowing growth. orders for exports again, slowing growth. in the u.s., the stage is set for declining growth in q4. we are enteromedics auctioning in the labor market. exports from canada, surprising to the downside. it is a developed market, but a global phenomenon. there are some places you could look around the world, some emerging markets, as we were just hearing from annabelle. o.e.c.d. acknowledged india as a particular bright spot. but monetary tightening is starting to catch up in the real economy globally. vonnie: stuart paul, thank you, u.s. economist stuart paul. to bring you a little more on that oecd warning that the

world's advanced economies are heading into a deepening slowdown, it seems global gdp is expanding by 2.7% next year after an already-weak 2.9% in 2023. that were ecdc has growth will only pickup in 2025, with risks tilted downward and we do heightened geopolitical tensions. it says the fed and o.e.c.d. will keep policy tightening tight, to ensure inflation is weeded out of their economies -- the fed and the ecb. >> we need to see inflation persistently returning to targets. that is where we are advising for a period of time of restrictive monetary policy well that inflation is squeezed out of the system. we have seen record rates of inflation in response to the shocks the economy has been through. it will take some time for that to come back to target. haidi: still ahead, china beige book's latest surveys indicating that china's economy may be

reversing two months of slower growth. managing director shehzad qazi explained later. . but before that, we would be speaking with rbnz governor adrian orr, about the inflation outlook. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

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when you automate sales tax with avalara, you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh haidi: haidi: central bank discussed raising the rate at its final -- that is 11 central bank discussed raising rates at its final policy meeting until 2024. let's discuss all of this with the governor of the rv, adrian orr. governor orr, always a pleasure to have you.

if you look at that is very to between what the rbnz and the markets are expecting, how much is there a risk of the fact that the demand-side issues that that creates might fade quicker than expected. what happens for the rbnz? would you have to favorite quickly to an easing bias -- would you have to favorite cook quickly to an easing bias? governor orr: governor orr: we have had very strong population growth. consumption per person is actually declining, so monetary policy is working. but there are more people in the country, so record demand -- aggregate demand remains very tight. when inflation is declining, our concern is that it might not decline sufficiently fast. we are in no mood for cutting until we see inflation expectations firmly back in the bed. i pivot -- a pivot would be too

big a word, but where we are with corinne: and being too high at the moment, we have limited headroom for positive inflation surprises. hence our reasonably firm stance that we are taking. haidi: you mentioned you are in no mood to entertain any leniency when it comes to inflation, because the projections show you will not start cutting until inflation is well within 1%-3%, close to 2%, the midpoint. . do you need to be thoroughly convinced that inflation is dead before you can make that decision? governor orr: we will always have to be forward-looking. . will have to have a certain level of expectation for us to start considering whether the job is done. we need the confidence. we need to see all of the indicators of inflation pressure moving in the right direction from the includes inflation expectations, measures of spare

capacity, wage growth, all the nominal and real variables. they are moving in the right direction, but they are pushing into that headwind of strong population growth. haidi: for most of the year, the rbnz has been saying that inflation will be by easing wage pressures. i wonder if that outlook has changed. share with us some of your thinking in terms of whether the elements contributing to inflation have changed, or whether you view the impacts as being different now. governor orr: i think the elements continuously change. we know what the economy is doing right now. we know how it works, and through our monetary policy role, but there is always something new. these anticipated events or shocks, into the economy. wage growth has peaked, we are pleased to see nominal wage growth slowing, becoming more in line with our inflation targets. all measures of capacity pressure are easing, but not easing as quickly given the

strong population growth that we are leaning into. it is most evident really indwelling prices. population growth added to our labor supply. the potential of the economy is now stronger, but the demand impacts of more people, more demand for goods, resources and dwellings. rental prices, for example, are very strong, and a significant component of, our cpi index as they are in australia and canada where you are being a mother outcome -- a similar outcome. vonnie: so you are saying that you may raise rates again next year, but markets don't seem to believe you. they are pricing in a year. is that going to be a problem -- they are pricing in a cut next year. is that going to be a problem? governor orr: markets will do what they do. they are choosing 15 of our next rate changes. we are very transparent, they

can see our frameworks, our tools, our models, our goals, and then they make their own decisions. so that is what a market is. we can influence the yield curve only so far. it really comes down to seeing how the data and behavior rolls out. at the moment, we are putting our best foot forward and saying we're in no mindset to be cutting the official cash rate anytime soon. vonnie: the new government will strip the rbnz out of its dual mandate and return is focused to just price stability. has that contributor to your hawkish tilt? governor orr: no, this decision was made in the current mandate and it was the current committee decision-making structures. and it is consistent with what we have been saving now for 18 months. we projected from a very little interest rate that we needed to be well above a neutral rate. the projections we have been

putting out recently are almost unchanged from the last of months -- 12 months. we have been saying we want to be in the restrictive position for quite some time yet. the unanticipated shocks have been asymmetric, generally upward on relative prices, upward on inflationary pressures, and that means we have had more work to do with our monetary policy. it has not become easier. there is more work to do. . the mandate, we have always had primacy on inflation, we provided a review of our remit to the previous government, it is on our website. it enables us to better explain our core purpose. haidi: how inflationary our tax cuts, which the new government have vowed to deliver? i guess it depends on what households decide to do with that money? governor orr: it's a combination of things, timing, scale, the

breadth of any changes to the tax. but it is also how it will be funded. through other revenue areas, or cost-cutting. so it is always a net-net. governments will change their spending, but to do that, they have to change their revenue sources as well. so there is a lot of detail to be fleshed out. too much uncertainty to be opining on any particular position. haidi: i think too much uncertainty characterizes where we are at with the global economy, right, be it the chances of a soft landing the slowdown in major economies like china. we had the o.e.c.d. coming up with a pretty bearish view in terms of the likelihood of a soft landing and the ability for global economies to return to pre-pandemic growth. i wonder, in line of that uncertainty, how challenging would it be for central banks to

balance potentially the need for more stimulus for the economy, versus the need to retain its commitment to inflation and returning to target? governor orr: i would like to think that whilst it always will be uncertain, i feel a lot more confident about where the global economy is now relative to two years ago which got us to the high inflation position we are in. the general of view is absolutely subdued economic growth. that is critical to ease the inflation pressures internationally. . when growth is low, it will always be near a small minus or small plus number. so the monetary policy is working its way through, at a place where the world has a lot more debt, particularly government debt -- not so much in a, but globally. so the uncertainties about the monetary policy on highly indebted nations. how it proves to be harder to

manage or actually easier to manage because people are more sensitive. haidi: haidi: you haven't necessarily had the smoothest history with the new finance minister, nicholas willis. can you characterize what the new working relationship is like from here? governor orr: we are operationally independent. i received a mandate from the government and we do our very, very best to remain absolutely focused on it. the relationship with the minister of finance and the prime minister is very constructive and professional. we are united in one very clear goal, which is to lower the rate of inflation in this country. we have had some great discussions. they know we have got our job to do, and they will be doing their job. haidi: governor or always great to chat with you. adrian orr is governor of the reserve bank of new zealand

talking us through some of their thinking given that hawkish hold of the decision yesterday was characterized by. we talked about the environment of microeconomic uncertainty, something that is plaguing every single central bank as we get into the left decisions of the year. that be ok decision, the last of 2023, is incoming as well. feels like investors are looking forward to the timing of the easing cycle to come in 2024. we know the bok is poised to hold benchmark interest rates steady in that thursday decision, but market participants are looking at the next year, economists see it being held. vonnie:. vonnie: if we get anything else, it will be a massive surprise. don't forget, the bok was first to start tightening. but with the dollar weakening and the korean won the strengthening in the last few days will definitely play into their decision.

the reading recently of consumer prices advancing 3.8% in the october reading, quickening from september, will not have given the bok any reason whatsoever to change from its stance of keeping the rate at 3.5%. plenty more "daybreak: asia." this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ i was on a work trip when

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haidi: watching origin energy at the moment, 23 minutes into the start of trading in sydney. we are seeing downside of about 1% of the moment. origin energy rejecting the backup plan from an asset management company to acquire the majority of its assets if investors vote against a full takeover next week. quote "it's not in the best interests of the investors and

shareholders, is highly conditional and doesn't provide sufficient certainty." investors are due to both monday on the $12.4 billion takeover by that brookfield-led consortium. it has been proposed by the largest investor and in the event, that it fails, the fund had suggested an alternative, where they would pay 12.3 billion aussie dollars for the energy business. we heard reporting a couple of days ago that they are unconvinced about that as well. let's get to the latest when it comes to geopolitics. israel and how mass have exchanged more prisoners as hopes grow both can extend the current truce agreement set to expire thursday morning. for more, michael haynes joined us with the latest -- michael heath. there are hopes we could see an extension? michael: yeah, we had the hostages transferred and the truth is set to expire in a few hours, but there is a strong feeling from what bloomberg is

reporting that there might be another extension for a couple of days. about 70 hostages have been released so far. israel has met it fully clear that it is prepared to keep going with this until all the women and children have been released, but it isn't prepared for a longer deal to deal with the men and soldiers who are women, until all the women and children are released. so we are in the hiatus moment. otherwise in a few hours, hostilities could begin. the expectation is that it will extend. vonnie: michael, this idea that saudi arabia is approaching iran with a monetary offer in order to have a run incentivized not to have it or any of its proxies join in the war, this is a strange development. can you tell us any about how to think about this? michael: it's an interesting one, isn't it, because it's almost like a grand bargain

saudi arabia is offering. that it has the money for investment that been under sanctions for years, powerful and at the heart of so much of the instability in the middle east. how mass is linked to iran, hezbollah on israel's north, iran is in syria and yemen. it makes it more interesting or unusual, that the saudi's and the iranians are basically facing off in yemen. the iranian-backed houthis saudi's, back other forces there as well in a civil war that has been going on there. so it is an unusual one. to what extent will saudi arabia, if this did proceed, could get any guarantees? they aren't asking iran to stand down, or to cut funds to these groups or anything like that. it is basically to restrain them

from expanding the war. there is a risky a lot of concern in saudi arabia about the potential for this to escalate regionally. one of the idea is also about why this attack occurred when it did, was that iran was very keen to thought saudi arabia and israel normalizing relations -- to thwart saudi arabia and israel normalizing relations. it is certainly unusual. saudi arabia can influence things. haidi: michael heath there with the latest. coming up next, president xi

chinese president xi jinping has visited shanghai for the first time in three years. charlie zhu joins us now. shanghai has been through it the past three years, not just as a result of covid but, of course, a number of the private sector biggest players there have really suffered through the regulatory crackdowns. how much of this is about rebuilding confidence for the government? charlie: yeah, so xi jinping finally showed up in shanghai following media reports about a visit. media released footage showing him visiting the china futures exchange, dropping by and affordable rental housing community, and also visiting a tech innovation center, observing a walking robot. the significance of the visit is, as you mentioned, it is his first public visit since november of 2020, and he is coming a year after a, rare

protest street protest in shanghai that forced china to lift covid restrictions. and as you know, the covid lockdown, three years of covid restrictions have damaged business, scared away forward investors and disrupted supply chains. so there is significance to this visit. maybe it is extending a signal about his support for the private sector. and the economy, which is still struggling to recover from the lockdown and the impact fallout from the lockdown. vonnie: charlie, signaling, for sure. will there be anything concrete that president xi will announce perhaps afterwards? charlie: it's a good question. the cctv report released last night was very brief, it didn't have a lot of any quotes or comments from him.

so, people in the market are probably expecting more details from -- about this visit, later today or tonight when the state media is likely to release a more detailed report about visit . so the market is keeping a close eye. technology stocks may react to the news, emphasis on tech innovation, the image of his observing the robot could be used as a reason for people to bet on chip stocks. some of the chip stocks in shanghai have rallied in speculation of his visit and remarks about support for the technology sector. having said that, the message about technology, support for

technological breakthroughs and finance and trade has been consistent from cheating. he has been saying the same thing almost throughout the whole year -- from xi jinping. there is nothing new at least from the cctv reports that we have seen so far/charlie, thank you so much. vonnie: bloomberg's charlie zhu in shanghai. thus discuss the outlook for china's economy more broadly and bring in shehzad qazi, managing director at china beige book international. would have the latest results of the beige book and we just heard about, charlie talking about president xi's visit. is it something we should get optimistic about, or is it just one-month data? >> i would urge caution because it is just one-month data. singles' day was seen as widely disappointing, but you did have consumers come out and spend a bit, consumption improved which is a positive story.

the fact is the bloodbath in property continues and really that is the big sentiment overhang that everyone is focused on. vonnie: are beijing's policy moves working, and if they aren't working in parts of the economy, what moves does beijing need to make? shehzad: policy moves have not had a major impact this year. on the monetary policy side, we have seen the cost of capital following, easing going on in plain sight. but because companies are unwilling to hire and unwilling to expand, confidence is low, they aren't willing to borrow. borrowing is a multi year lows. on the other hand, of course, the bleeding continues in the property market. we're seeing new stimulus measures being announced. the question is how big are they willing to go, and will it help? haidi: there is one simple thing they could do, right, a lot of

economists have suggested direct payments to households. is it the right time for them to consider something like that, because there are more direct things that they could do to boost sentiment? shehzad: yeah, i think the party has been very opposed the idea of doing any type of household stimulus. that has also been a lot of rhetoric, even against what they call welfareism, essentially saying we are not going to do household stimulus. seems like now what they are interested in doing is giving an ethnically, -- -- making enough liquidity available so you have different property developers who can go and get loans and finish building the houses that some families, many families have paid for and are waiting on. the larger thesis here is that if we can do that, maybe that will help to stabilize the property market, and that is how consumer sentiment will be lifted. a very indirect approach. haidi: what ultimately happens when we come to the property sector because i managed slowdown and consolidation is

really what they want. it has been built into a bubble, but do we see the government taking a step back from the homes that are for living rhetoric and looking at other ways to support the sector given how carbonated it is to household confidence i think -- given how correlated it is to household confidence? shehzad: i think what they are looking to do is put a floor under the property market because the pain and the weakness this year, i think, has surprised everybody, including the party and including secretary xi. so the goal is let's move to stabilize the sector now. vonnie: we saw some wage inflation, which, depending on your attitude, could be a good thing for china. is china at less risk of exporting deflation? shehzad: i think that china exporting deflation thesis has gotten to out of control. you look at the data coming out, you don't have a deflation

problem -- there might be pockets of disinflation here and there. . the second thing is, good news on the labor front. the real question is do we see this trend continue for the next several months, or was it just a seasonal bump that we got with part-time employment? that is the big question now for q4 as a whole. vonnie: corporate borrowing also climbed a second month, what does that tell us about corporate china customer obviously we have the property developers, but can we put them all in one box, and then the rest of corporate china in the other? shehzad: property firms were the ones that saw the biggest jump in corporate borrowing which tells you that the interest rates coming down is starting to have some kind of impact. but the reality is, even though we have now seen two months of back-to-back higher corporate borrowing, in the larger scheme of things, corporate borrowing is still at multi year lows. you look at the quarter to date trends for the fourth quarter, is looking like it'll probably trend down.

beijing is having a really hard time stimulating from a monetary standpoint, which is why you are now starting to see other measures being announced. haidi: shehzad qazi, always great to chat with you, managing director at china beige book international, with us in our new york city of. take a look at how australian and new zealand bonds are trading. the big bet remains of a bond early in the u.s.. equities are flat. so much focus remains on the side's potential start of the easing cycle, despite pushback from fed speakers. talking more about a pause and any start to the cycle of rate cuts. but the markets continue to price that in. we have seen australian sovereign bonds open higher on the back of gains in treasuries. we have u.s. consumption data coming at 3%, under the 4% estimate and that fed into the ideas of potentially a harder landing than estimated and the

fed being forced to do more on the side of rate cuts sooner. the aussie and kiwi are unchanged, and we are looking ahead to china pmi data coming through in the afternoon. in sydney as well. watching kiwi assets, we heard from the rbnz governor earlier saying that the bank is concerned that inflation will not slow fast enough. coming up next, our interview with binance's new ceo and why he is in no rush to reshape the firm's top leadership team. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

a few years ago, i came to saona, they told me there's no electricity on the island. we always thought that whatever we did here would be an emblem of what small communities can achieve. trying to give a better life to people that don't have the means to do it. si mi papá estuviera vivo, sé que él tuviera orgulloso también de vivir

de esta viviendo una vida como la que estamos viviendo ahora. es electricidad aquí es salud. >> the binance settlement was great for the company and great for the industry. i wish richard well. i think they are de-wrist in a lot of ways. haidi: galaxy digital ceo mike novogratz there on the binance settlement in which its founder changpeng zhao pled guilty to u.s. money laundering and finance violations. this is what we are following when it comes to crypto assets at the moment.

trading, bitcoin retaking that $38,000 level, with the rate expectations really increasing. just shy of that mark when it comes to trading in bitcoin at the moment. there is broad optimism that the fed is closer to lowering borrowing costs, and inflation continues to decline we will see more upside for crypto. it has hit that 18 month high on the friday session. expectations are of investors' appetite for riskier assets like digital tokens will increase. gains are modest across the board when it comes to ethereum, binance and others. the new binance ceo richard carrin says he is in no rush to reshape the company's top leadership team and he told us how they plan to move on from legal troubles after the man known as cz was forced to step down. >> indeed, the trust of the thousands of employees that we

have, which i hold very dearly. without their trust, i wouldn't have taken up this rule. this role, given the changing and maturing industry, it is much more regulated, it requires us to continue to work with all the important stakeholders that i mentioned. to continue to push ahead and enhance the growth of the industry. so item very confident that -- i am very confident that we will continue to grow. i use all my experience, my endeavors, to make sure that we succeed in the future. >> will he maintain his current executive role at the firm. >> continuity is very important. we have strong expertise of quality. at the same time, we continue to make investments into intellectual human, talent which

is very important for our industry because the industry evolves so quickly. things are evolving. new developments come up by the day. but we continue to enhance our strength and continue to invest enough talent. continue to invest heavily into our compliance program. i am very confident that we will continue to grow from strength to strength. >> on your market share that has fallen because of the latest events, how will you stop that marketshare from being eroded, how do you grow from here? richard: two responses to that. firstly, as i mentioned we are focused on building the ecosystem. today we are in the early stage of development, only 5% crypto adoption. if we can double, or even quadruple that, even if our market share falls, everyone in the industry, including ourselves will be much stronger. in related to that, you will probably ask market share is

fallen, user trust may be eroded -- that is not the case. the number of users continues to growth. today we have 560 6 million permit last week i reported a slightly lower figure. the usual trusts us because of our consistency. think of our custodial responsibility very seriously. in the last six years and in the future. it is very important to remember as part of sentiment, u.s. regulators have scrutinized our operations in quite great detail and they do not detect a misappropriation of user fonts, which is important. to our commitment to users is that you can withdraw at any point in time, 100 percent, and user safety, ease of protection and user security is very dear and important to us. vonnie: the new binance ceo richard teng, speaking with bloomberg's francine lacqua. thailand's golf energy remains

confident in its venture with the firm as they prepare to launch a crypto platform. the ceo says binance was not accused of crimes such as fraud or misuse of customer money in the u.s. settlement. the venture recently received the required license, but binance's guilty plea has cast a shadow over the plan domestic platform. meanwhile, philippine regulars are working to block user access to binance's crypto platforms. the securities and exchange commission says the firm is authorized to properly offer securities there. regulars are looking to address the growing number of online entities soliciting investments without the required licenses. haidi: turning to x, formerly known as twitter, elon musk has issued a rebuke to advertisers who stopped the platform. this is about the fallout of elon musk's endorsement of that antisemitic post, which he has

apologized for, but he is hitting at advertisers were dropping their sponsorships? annabelle: that's right, this is getting the focus of his attention. he has been speaking at a conference hosted by the new york times, and some of the headlines coming through from that relate to the focus and the attention he is putting on the advertising exodus. since the platform a year ago, we have seen 60% of advertisers leaving, but it has identified in the wake of him endorsing that antisemitic conspiracy theories two weeks ago. . the fallout from that, we saw rbn suspending their ads, apple, disney, lions gate, the european commission soon followed. you saw the pickup in threads, matta platforms version of x, and president biden posted on that for the first time. so it is really hitting x, and hitting elon musk.

that anger, is issues with advertisers is getting a lot of heat. he has been speaking at this conference, a lot of expletives which i will not take the time to issue or tell you here, but certainly a lot of karma for language coming out of that. what he does say is that advertisers will kill the company, and the whole world will know that advertisers killed the company. so, vonnie, perhaps a satisfying method for him to put out. is it going to entice advertisers to come back to x? perhaps not. vonnie: annabelle in hong kong, thank you. plenty more to come right here on "daybreak: asia." this is bloomberg. ♪

vonnie: some breaking economic data out of japan -- industrial production beating in october. the preliminary figure was up 1%, economists was looking for that to be 0.8%. year-over-year, the number was up 0.9%. much better than the previous reading of -4.4 percent and also better than the economists estimate of 4% of a game. that is tempered somewhat by

retail sales data. it was up 4.2%, but down from the revised upwards previous figure of 6.3%, and also much lower than economists estimate in october. month over month, retail sales were down 1.6%. . the survey showed economists looking for retail sales to gain zero point 4%. , once again industrial production up 1% in october as a preliminary reading, retail sales month over month, down 1.6%. haidi: let's look at some of the other corporate headlines were following. bloomberg has learned that cigna and humana are in stock for a potential merger to create a new giant in the health insurance industry. sources say the timing and structure are unclear, and deliberations are ongoing. the news sent stocks for both companies down, as investors weigh potential antitrust challenges in an industry that is already highly consolidated. the u.a.w. is launching public organizing campaigns aimed at

over a dozen automakers. in the crosshairs are firms including toyota, volkswagen and tesla, the union amid organized 150,000 employees. many have already signed up, according to a spokesperson. earlier this year, the u.a.w. secured historic concessions ford, gm and stellantis. this company will invest $3 billion in its electric motorcycle business and release 20 numeral by 2030. it has raised its target to 4 million units. honda says need to village he should reduce the length of assembly lines by 40%. general motors has announced its largest ever stock buyback plan work overtime begin dollars. it's also boosting its dividend by over 30% and reinstating earnings guidance after accounting for costs of its new labor contract. the moves, as higher interest rates britain car sales, and its ev push stalls.

>> from an ev perspective, we have confidence in the portfolio we have. we are of bit disappointed this year that we were constrained by the automation to build modules. this is not something that is fundamentally an issue, it was more a many fracturing-automation issue that we are working, and will be audited by middle of next year and make an improvement on every quarter. vonnie: belize's president has told bloomberg he is taking on the task of navigating the war between india and china. president muizzu could recite his predecessor forgiven india unchecked sway over the island nation's affairs. that is coming up in the next episode of "latitude" with haslinda amin. >> previous governments have either tilted towards india or china. both have invested heavily in infrastructure in the islands, extending loans as they compete for influence. in 2018, beijing upgraded the runway at the main international airport in malay. it also completed a 1.3-mile

bridge known as the china- maldives friendship bridge. india has also been building. among the projects, a bridge of its own. there is more than four miles long. it has become a tale of two bridges, all amid a pile of debt and worries about how the maldives will repay the two rivals. for a small country with about half a million population, how do you ensure fiscal sustainability. president wiesel: we need to expend the economy and do it fast. haidi: that will be on "latitude" with haslinda amin, thursday at 8:00 p.m. in hong kong here on bloomberg. we are a few minutes away from the start of trading across markets opening in japan and korea. it is be ok decision date and

the bank of korea is expected to stay on hold. investors signaling in terms of what is coming next inter 24. it's the timing of an expected easing cycle in focus rather than bok keeping the rate at 3.5%, which is expected by all economists surveyed by bloomberg. pretty flat trading session in australia. downside for origin energy on the development of yet another hurdle when it comes to that deal with brookfield being done. the revised bid isn't in the holder's best interest, according to origin. that was the latest development as they head to the market open. coming up next, wife china has fragile recovery remains are -- -- why china has fragile recovery remains a risk for investors. it's easy to get lost in investment research. introducing j.p. morgan personal advisors.

hey david. connect with an advisor to create your personalized plan. let's find the right investments for your goals okay, great. j.p. morgan wealth management.

vonnie: this is "daybreak: asia." we are counting down to asia's major market opens. we have been ingesting some fed speak and also economic data not just out of the u.s. today where we saw better than forecast gdp for the third quarter, but also out of japan and south korea and central bank decisions, too, heidi:. haidi: iesco we are looking ahead to the bank of korea decisions. the focus is on when the easing cycle will start. so much uncertainty. we spoke with the rb and the governor in the previous hour, talking about how new zealand's central bank is word -- worried that inflation will not slow quickly enough. the focus is on central bank policy from here. annabelle: and when we can start to see any sort of cuts. let's look at japan, south korea. the big story when it comes to japan's central bank is when we could see a pause in a normalization in 2024. the latest data that just came

out, if it is any supportive factor for why the doj says it needs more signals as to what it can shift its policy tack, it has got it. industrial production for instance, undershooting expectations, actually beating those. retail sales did come in weaker than what had been expected. so in the session today we are keeping an eye on what is happening with the outlook for central banks generally, that expectation that the fed could start to cut sometime in the first half of next year. that really played into the direction of 10-year yields in the prior session. the pull back fairly steady now. something else that has been factoring into the tweeting for the japanese yen. . we are below the 100-day moving average. stocks fairly flat here to start the day. let's change and look at korea. as you said, we are starting that bok decision as soon as this hour. all economists surveyed believe

they will hold their rating. bloomberg intelligence says a cut is not likely perhaps until august of next year. ddp and cpi projections, we have revisions from the 2024 period as well as others in focus. you have the korean won still below the 1300 level, it is the story of dollar softness, through. stocks are a bit under pressure, the kospi is down 0.2%. if you change on australia, one hour into the session, the real focus is in that m&a space. we are seeing the origin energy board rejecting a revised proposal from brookfield -- private equity firms trying to buy this form out. a lot of opposition, notably from australian sleeper which has one of the major stakes. that stocks leading down 2%. brent crude or wdi, rather,

still coming online, but we are seeing a bit of softness after two days of gains ahead of that opec+ meeting. and the rb and z lines, not expecting it cut anytime soon. we had seen business confidence, the index rising, and it is managed by anz banks. the kiwi dollar is fairly steady as well. haidi: our next guest says the biggest risk for investors is whether the u.s. can maintain economic resiliency and what happens with china's economic recovery. great to have you with us. we are firmly focused on the trajectories for central banks. in almost every respect, the markets and what the central banks themselves are saying, there is a big dislocation there. what is the danger of the markets getting ahead of themselves on this easing event narrative? alex: on that question, the

danger is starting to price in more cuts and inflation perhaps staying persistently above the fed's target or surprisingly on the upside if you see close to -- if you see continued wage growth. right now the market is looking like the soft landing narrative or threading the needle of being able to cut any absence of a growth slowdown is more or less what is priced in. i think if we see a risk around growth remaining stronger-than-expected or we see some upside surprise in inflation, you will see rapid repricing. that is a risk. haidi: how much further, as we see this bond rally? alex: if you see growth just continue to gradually slow, then you can still see some further upside to bonds, or further downside yields.

our expectations are that will see growth slow -- we will avoid recession -- but growth will continue to slow slightly below trend. but everything about this recovery, everything about this whole cycle has been on. you could see the fed start to cut and cut pretty significantly given how high real rates high, how restrictive they are. and with the 10 year generally falling, you can ceos continue to drop continue to year end. haidi: how are you positioning? we look like we are setting up for a rally for the equity markets have been pretty quiet this week. are you moving more into fixed income on these rates? alex: yeah i think the difficult aspect is we tend to see these year-end rallies, so you make an outlook for next year, you have price forecast and projections and then you almost hit that before you even get to the year-end. there is still upside from a

fixed income perspective, we think yields could continue to come down. but we recommend investors, who are by and large holding a large percentage in cash, lock in yields. we think equities can continue to see outside next year, but it is less than what we were initially expecting over the course of next year, given how much you have already moved now. . we do like fixed income and equities, but we would probably savor fixed income at the moment. haidi: you are also selective across asia. are there any market turning out more to you than others right now? alex: probably india. even though it is certainly not cheap at the moment. [laughter] haidi: right. alex: from an asset a location perspective, we are thinking about where we see the best long-term prospects. also within emerging markets in asia, where we have seen the best relationship between growth and equity returns over time, that has generally come from

india. we expect continued high nominal growth. we expect continued earnings growth and continued equity returns, which you haven't seen across a number of emerging markets. haidi: india has been expensive but valuations, china looks good. do you think the confidence issue is still preventative when it comes to being properly invested in that market or, are valuations looking compelling at this point? alex: for us, we think valuations have certainly come down. it is i think a bit too early to say or a bit too early to competently say that they are distinctly cheap. we have seen different resumes from a valuation perspective. while we don't see much further downside to valuations, it's hard to say that we will be a rebound in multiples, especially when you look at onshore versus offshore. with offshore, the majority of investors will be global investors, and you need to see a real change in confidence and

perception with how global investors view china, to see that multiple increase. you see an interesting relationship between onshore and offshore, that onshore investors are sort of waiting for offshore to rally, and offshore investors aren't ready to buy-in until receipt onshore rally. it's hard to say what will spark confidence and push those multiples higher. for are we think the upside is asymmetric -- limited downside and perhaps some upside. more range-bound at the moment. haidi: the other darling of 2023, japan is there further to growth in that rally -- further to go in that rally? alex: we are neutral on japan. we have seen the market rally pretty strong, valuations relatively on the high-end, and receive economic recovery in the data that we just saw. it is still pretty shaky. the domestic consumer has not really rebounded that strongly. we have seen insulation

persistently -- inflation a broadening above the boj's target. . we do see some policy normalization coming through. additionally, if we see the yen continued to strengthen as the dollar continues to weaken, that is a headwind for earnings and for japanese equities. so we are neutral on the market. we see investors are underweight and have a relatively low exposure to the market, so we are recommending broad diversification and getting to a neutral type of exposure, but we aren't necessarily, positive on a 12-month time horizon. haidi: alex wolf, head of asia investment strategy at j.p. morgan private bank. really great to chat with you. . that look at some of the market movers. organized labor staying in the headlines as one of the big themes. we are seeing moves in the automakers in this part of the world? annabelle: is not really translating across in the session, but it is worth pointing out because as you

said, that organized labor union is staying in the spotlight. u.a.w. looking to capitalize on its recent contract victory. when they have done is said they are launching simultaneous public organizing campaigns, naming those at more than a dozen carmakers. some of those are in japan, and also hyundai in korea. a major organized 100 50,000 employees at 13 companies. it would double the number of autoworkers in the union. it's a key focus for us. they have unveiled a website that workers can sign up to get union cards online and get in touch with organizers. just keeping and i throughout the session but not much of a market reaction as yet. something else we are tracking in the session is footwear makers. nothing too major, but it's worth pointing out that footlocker shares jumped the most in more than a year, a gain of more than 20%. that is after the company raised

its full-year forecast, citing strong results over the thanksgiving week, progress on the strategic growth. they are expecting full-year comparable sales, the decline of 8.5%, compared to a previous forecast of a decrease of as much as 10%. so the outlook for footlocker improving a bit. some of the footwear makers in asia, vonnie. vonnie: thank you. still ahead, hopes are growing that israel and hamas could extend a truce agreement set to expire thursday morning. the latest on the middle east conflict, shortly. but first, the bank of korea is poised to hold its benchmark interest rate. we get a preview of that the show, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ the chase ink business premier card is made for people like sam, who make- everyday products, designed smarter. like a smart coffee grinder, that orders fresh beans for you.

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vonnie: the thank of korea isvonnie: voyage to keep it benchmark interest rate on hold as it did in january when it makes its last call of the year shortly. for more, number economy and government editor for japan and korea joins us. 3.5%. what is it waiting for? paul: i think it's waiting for clearer signs that inflation is going to cool. looking at the october data, it's got a short, sharp shock because it ended up being 3.8% an acceleration that is a wrinkle on the forecast for the central bank. so i think the point of interest in today's meeting is to keep the rates on hold, keep this hawkish cold, but they will also release updated forecast for inflation and for growth and i think it's inevitable that they will raise the inflation

forecast for this year up from 3.5% to perhaps 3.7%. the key, though, will be what they do other 2024 forecast does this blip in inflation upwards that we have seen this autumn filter through to next year? because if it does, that means we are going to have the higher the longer continued. if there isn't much impact on that 2024 inflation forecasts, then i think the speculation will continue that perhaps there will be a policy pivot around summer. haidi: and what are some of the guest complicating factors when it comes to gauging the timing of that potential lessee favorite into easing -- policy pivot into easing? paul: we need to see inflation get down first of all below, perhaps the 2.5% mark. economists see that happening

around the late summer. that is one possible figure that might trigger a move. i think u.s. policy is also a huge factor in all this. obviously it has been quite a change in perceptions about what will have an with side policy -- with fed policy next year, with markets and investors bringing forward projections for rate cuts. the sooner that happens in the u.s., the easier it will be for korea to act as well, we have also seen the impact on the won from the changing perspectives of u.s. fed policy and that has led to a gain of over 5% in the warning against the dollar just this month -- in the won against the dollar just this month. that relieves another pressure point on the back of korea for keeping rates higher-for-longer.

on the other side of the ledger, we also have this household debt which is continuing to bubbled up. if that continues, the bank of korea will be wanting to be cautious about going through soon with a rate cuts next year. haidi: bloomberg economy and government editor for japan and korea, paul jackson there joining us. from the bank of korea to the rbnz. rbnz governor adrian or saysr lessee makers are concerned inflation is not cooling down fast enough after surprising the market yesterday with a hawkish cold. he spoke to us about the headwinds in their inflation fight. >> we have had very strong population growth, consumption per person is actually declining, so monetary policy is working. but there are more people in the country. aggregate demand remains very tight. while inflation is declining,

our concern is that it may not decline sufficiently fast and we are in no mood for cutting until we see the inflation expectations firmly back in the band. i would say a pivot would be too big a word. what we are saying is that where we are with core inflation being too high at the moment, we have limited headroom for positive inflation surprises, and hence, we are reasonably -- hence the reasonably firm stance that we are takingm. haidi: you have mentioned you are in no mood to entertain any leniency when it comes to inflation. the projections show you will not start cutting until inflation is well below 1%-3%, in fact, close to 2%, the midpoint. do you need to be thoroughly concerned that inflation is dead before you can make that decision? paul: we will always have to be forward-looking, we will have to have a certain level of expectation for us to start considering whether the job is

done. we need the confidence. we need to see all of the indicators of inflation pressure moving in the right direction. that includes inflation expectations. it includes the measures of spare capacity, wage growth, all the nominal and real valuables. they are moving in the right direction, but we are pushing into that headwind of strong population growth. haidi: from most of the year, the rbnz had been saying that inflation was going to be eased by easing wage pressures. i wonder if that outlook has changed. any share with us some of your thinking in terms of whether the elements contributing to inflation have changed, or whether you view the impacts as being different now. paul: i think the elements have continuously changed. we know what the economy is doing right now. we know how it works and hence, through our monetary policy role, what we need to do. but there is always something new, anticipated events and

sharks coming into the economy. wage growth has peaked. we are close to seeing nominal wage growth slowing, becoming more in line with our inflation targets all measures of capacity pressure are easing, but not easing as quickly given the strong population growth that we are leaning into. it is most evident really in dwelling prices. population growth, in our labor supply, the potential of the economy is now stronger. but the demand impacts of more people, more demand for goods, resources and dwellings -- rental prices, for example, are very strong and a significant component of our cpi index, as they are in roastery and canada where you are seeing a similar outcome. vonnie: governor, you are saying you may raise rates again next year. you have mentioned it again just now. but markets don't seem to believe you, they are pricing in a cut next year. is that going to be a problem.

>> no, markets do what they do. they will be choosing 15 of our next two rate changes. they are observing. we are very transparent. they can see our frameworks, our tools, our models, our goals, our. pivots then they make their own decisions. that is what a market is. we can influence the yield curve only so far, and that it really comes down to seeing how the data and behavior rolls out. vonnie: rbnz governor adrian orr speaking to us a little earlier. plenty more to come right here on "daybreak: asia." this is bloomberg. ♪

it's easy to get lost in investment research. introducing j.p. morgan personal advisors. hey david. connect with an advisor to create your personalized plan. let's find the right investments for your goals okay, great. j.p. morgan wealth management.

a few years ago, i came to saona, they told me there's no electricity on the island. we always thought that whatever we did here would be an emblem of what small communities can achieve. trying to give a better life to people that don't have the means to do it. si mi papá estuviera vivo, sé que él tuviera orgulloso también de vivir de esta viviendo una vida como la que estamos viviendo ahora. es electricidad aquí es salud.

vonnie: number of economics is forecasting china's november as pmi's will continue to highlight a struggling economy. they expect the manufacturing sector to extend its contraction, and the non-manifesting sector to slow. bloomberg's senior executive editor at john lee joins us from beijing. john, why so gloomy? we have had so many policy moves, and we also had better data including out of the china beige book just today. john: well, there is -- there are a lot of problems still to be solved. first, i think everybody would point to the real estate sector, a continuing issue. there are also a couple of other factors, in october there was a weeklong holiday so there were fewer days, that should be a positive for the month of november, which the numbers we will get later today. but if you look at the services side of that picture, fewer holidays means probably a drop-off in spending on leisure,

locations, hotel rooms, et cetera. . we also had some data for november that showed crude output has been below the average daily output that we saw in october so that would suggest that the manufacturing sector, infrastructure, was continuing to show signs of weakness. so that is why broadly, there is an expectation that the pmi we get today will continue to show the manufacturing sector in contraction. haidi: john, we are seeing, after what was a swirling few days of expectations and rumors, xi jinping visiting shanghai. how important and effective is this sort of messaging going to be, to rebuild confidence? john: it was important from a symbolic point of view. president xi was in shanghai, the city that is the business center of china, the place that does the most business with the rest of the world and is home to

the world's largest container port. it continued the efforts the leadership has made it to try and show the rest of the world that china is open for business and once foreign investment. that will be key if beijing will get this economy back on its feet. the vice premier new hope being with resident she on the trip was good as well. he also visited, i think notably, some public housing projects. that has been one thing the government warning to do, to try to reshape the real estate sector in china so that more people live in public housing instead of commercial villa state, which has been the backbone so far. haidi: bloomberg's china senior executive editor john liu. the maldives president, mohammed muhi zu, is taking on the task of navigating the war between india and china.

he criticized his predecessor forgiving india unchecked sway over the island's nation affairs, and that is the focus of the next episode of "latitude " with haslinda amin. here is a preview. haslinda: previous governments have either tilted towards india or china both have invested heavily in infrastructure in the island, extending loans as they compete for influence. ♪ in 2018, beijing upgraded a runway at the main international airports in malay. it also completed a 1.3 mile bridge known as the china-maldives friendship bridge. india has also been building permit among the projects, a bridge of its own. there is more than four miles long. it has become a tale of two bridges, all amid a pile of debt and worries of how the maldives will repay the two rivals. for a small country with about half a million population, how do you ensure fiscal

sustainability? president muizzu: we need to expand the economy and we need to make sure that we do it fast. vonnie: you can see the full episode of "latitude" with haslinda amin at 8:00 p.m. thursday hong kong time, here on bloomberg television. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are just getting some data crossing the bloomberg when it

comes to australia, building approvals, private sector credit -- let's start off when it comes to home approvals rising 2.2% month-to-month. october building approvals rising 7.5%, a huge advance on estimates. investment rising, weaker than expectations. machinery investment rising .5%, and we continue to watch when it comes to relief the biggest beat out of that number the building approvals of 7.5%. the survey was 1.4 percent, bouncing back from the previous reading of 4.6%. we have seen so much resilience when it comes to the property sector in australia which has proven to be one of the stickier

points for that fight against inflation. >> it is a massive rise. thank you. moving on the origin rejecting a backup plan from brookfield asset management to acquire its main energy business in a full $12.6 billion takeover expected to be rejected next week. for more, our reporter joins is now. explain to us how did we get to this point. >> it has been a long journey of almost 12 months to get to this point since it was put forward [indiscernible] and they were pursuing this, one of australia's biggest energy providers. a lot of back-and-forth. there have been government interventions in the market changing the economics of this takeover and most recently and most importantly [indiscernible] from lack of support from the company's largest shareholder,

australia's largest pension fund , owning a big stake in this deal, so they have to come up with an alternative to get something done. the alternative they came up with was [indiscernible] the company, and eig proposed a tender takeover for the remainder of the company in this energy business which is [indiscernible] -- generation assets and it is one of australia's biggest retail providers as well and its separate business as well which is basically an lng business that eig wanted to take over and that is where the consortium came together. brookfield proposed to carve out the [indiscernible] chunky part of the retail generation and ask he wanted to take it and instead of doing the deal [indiscernible] it was going to be separate parts. the company said this morning that they think it is too

complicated in the process is not that great so brookfield came at this last week was they put up [indiscernible] proposal forward and it was a bit of a [indiscernible] approach and [indiscernible] explosive. >> what do we know about the alternative proposal? >> yeah, so the alternative proposal is if the shareholder vote they were due to go ahead with last week [indiscernible] that it was essentially blocking [indiscernible] they were going to come well, that proposal -- going to come well, that proposal was voted down. they said instead of that we could offer big institutional shareholders a chance to roll into our takeovers that they can participate [indiscernible] this big green energy play word trying to transform origin lng two and as i said they were going to carve out that business and be behind an lng energy

business on the asx that would essentially [indiscernible] -- tender before, and that would have been less, taken a bit longer as well, as was ultimately the full consideration of share value is probably $.20 below the $9.43 offer they had come so you can see why they might not find that attractive. >> our reporter with the latest on that. let's get to to the markets. it is focused on central-bank decisions as we. >> yeah, -- this week. >> yeah, it has been market reaction, swaps markets fully pricing in a cut by june next year and an 80% chance it will happen by may, so that is playing out in treasuries and you're seeing it flowing across

as you see the yield continuing its retreat. it's not just the fed but other central banks and focus in the korean central-bank for instance we are on a watch for that decision and the expectation is for a hold but the key thing will be the messaging from the central bank and then also there is updated cpi, gdp forecasts as well, so the korean central-bank another to watch and were watching the japanese yen below that 147 mark and we got the data mixed in terms of industrial profits and also retail sales but perhaps indicating the boj needs more data to confirm whether it can exits from those settings. japan to the downside. let's change on. not really reflecting the session over the course of this month because when you look at this chart here, so the all world index, the bar in blue, you can see that huge run up we are seeing in global stocks over the last few weeks.

again, expectations the fed is done with hikes but still we are looking at the best month in three years for the all world index and we are seeing in underperformance coming through for the csi 300 in red in the hang seng and yellow as well so chinese stocks not really part of that move higher. let's change on and looked at hong kong in particular here because you are seeing stocks pretty much at their lows of the year with the index closing two points above the lowest close in october, so were back to pre-reopening levels and on an earnings basis this bottom panel here you are below eight times earnings, so a lot cheaper hong kong stocks than the likes of the nifty in india for instance. s&p 500 and european stocks as well. >> the latest on the markets. we are washing geopolitical developments when it -- watching geopolitical develops when it comes to the trees between israel and hamas.

the two sides have exchange more prisoners as hopes growth they can extend the current truce agreement set to expire on thursday. for more, we are joined now. we know from the continued messaging from israel at least at this temporary truce does not mean that they won't continue with the ultimate goal of trying to eradicate hamas, but is there hope building that we could see another extension of a couple of days? >> it looks that way. the u.s. sent its top diplomat secretary blinken to the region speaking with officials in israel and probably in qatar and egypt who have been instrumental brokering the cease-fire. the speculation now is another two days, but the clock is ticking and the cease-fire will expire in a few hours, local time 7:00 a.m. local time, and trying to get a deal done by been, it is getting very close, but the envoys are there in the

u.s. has sent its top person and he would try to see if he can get the parties together to get this deal and extension. >> what about humanitarian aid? does that stop as well? >> one of the things about the cease-fire is that it has allowed for humanitarian aid to make its way into gaza. the longer the cease-fire goes on the easier it is to bring aid and this is something the u.s. and other countries have been pushing for. so, the cease-fire is, it can help the people on the ground get food, relief and other materials needed for the survey and population. >> all right. our bloomberg government editor joining us. plenty more to come on "daybreak: asia." this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> you are watching "daybreak: asia." some headlines we are following, general motors announced its largest stock buyback plan worth $10 billion in boosting its dividend by 30%, reinstating earnings guidance after accounting for costs of its new labor contract, coming as higher

interest rates threaten car sales and its ev push stalls. >> from an ev perspective we have confidence in the portfolio and are disappointed this year we were constrained by the automation to build modules, so this is not something fundamentally un-issue. it was more manufacturing automation issue we are working and out of it by the middle of next year and making improvement every quarter. >> honda says it will invest 3.4 in dollars in its electric motorcycle business and released 13 new models by 2030 and raise its annual sales target to forming units up from 3.5 million and honda says new technology should reduce the length of assembly lines by up to 40%. >> united auto workers union launching a huge drive to organize workers at more than a dozen automakers including tesla, toyota, and volkswagen. su keenan joins us with more coming on the heels of the

contract victory with the detroit big three for the union. >> yeah, right after the union reclaimed the historic contract victory against the big three, they started talking about the big five and big six next time they are at the bargaining table. they said we will organize like we have never organized before and made it clear that union was targeting more than a dozen other companies with nonunion autoworkers and the effort is underway in tesla, toyota, volkswagen, nissan among targeted companies. they have set an organizing aim of putting 150,000 new employees at 13 companies on the union rolls, doubling the number of autoworkers in the union, and unveiled a website that would allow nonunion members to sign union cards and get in touch with organizers. the q8 w claims to have seen an overwhelming response from non-union workers from across the u.s. in recent months

particularly in the south end under u.s. law if the majority of employees at a workplace sign union cards, the company can voluntarily recognize the union or insist on a government-supervised unionization election and such campaigns can run into a lot of conflict and a lot of companies in the past have used tactics to undermine such efforts. >> the union has had organizing failures in the past and falling membership levels as well so is this about seizing on the momentum seemed this year? >> yeah in good part and also the union president shawn fain has talked about how they used new tactics and strategies to really empower the union in a way it never had before. shawn fain seemed they are leaving one of these strike marches earlier this year against the big three. he has also pointed out in various interviews that prior union leadership suffered due to

corruption, coziness with bosses and bad contracts and his attitude now fresh off the recent victory is "we can beat anybody." elon musk the ceo and founder of tesla is just one of the company heads that is aggressively or has aggressively opposed the uaw's efforts to organize tesla in the past and is currently in a standoff with the swedish union to negotiate pay deals on behalf of employees at tesla repair shops. and many companies did not respond to the request by bloomberg for comment. honda and nissan did in both indicated in statements they respect worker rights and do not believe they need the involvement of a third party. but this effort will indeed be watched closely. back to you. >> su keenan. the latest. take a look at markets more broadly trading at the moment. we have had a number of major

central-bank decisions including the rbnz looking ahead to the be bok. china banning research as well as displays of wealth. this coming as we have seen what has been a really shocker that year. 1.6 train dollars wiped off chinese mainland stocks since february and sentiment remaining bearish as we have seen some asset pricing levels start to pick up a little bit. we are now seeing this story, a bloomberg scoop in fact when it comes to cicc, one of china's largest investment banks warning analysts against bearish calls and to avoid showing off their "lavish lifestyles." beijing continuing to clamp down on well-paid bankers and analyst at china international capital corp. barred from showing negative comments about the economy in both public and private discussions according to an internal memo sent to the

research department this month and seen by bloomberg news. employees should avoid luxury blends and reviewing compensation to third parties. that directive underscores the increasing level of self scrutiny chinese financial institutions after authorities lashed out this year at what they called hedonistic lifestyles but calls into question the ability of investors particularly foreign investors or even domestic investors to be able to make these investing calls when one of the largest investment banks analysts have been banned according to this memo seen by bloomberg from publishing negative analyst research. >> the bank of korea is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady today. let's bring in the chief korea economist at morgan stanley. you are anticipating the bok will stay at 3.5%. what are you anticipating we

will learn from statements in news conference we get post the decision about next year's inflation growth forecast? >> yes, we are expecting the bok to stay on hold with the unanimous vote, that this will be the seventh consecutive meeting read the bok will hold at 3.5% of the key focus will be the details of the macro forecast for this year and next year. we expect the growth forecast to see eight minimal change, while the inflation forecast should be revised upward. we are expecting 20 basis point upward revision of this forecast of 3.7% in next year to two point yuan 5% from 2.4%. -- 2.4% from 2.4%. >> how will the market react? will the market be placated by those numbers? >> the changes in the inflation forecast in our view should not be taken as the bok changing

its stance to a hawkish camp. it is an adjustment from the recent re-acceleration of the headline inflation from fresh fruits and cereal prices, but not the trend inflation rising upward, so in that sense i would not cite the market should take it as the bok turning more hawkish with the inflation forecast revision. >> now the bank of korea hold before a pivot has often in history lasted much longer than a year and were coming up on something like 321 days right now but i know we are in different times when would you be anticipating that we will get some kind of pivot from the bok? [keyboard typing] >> we are expecting the first cut to take place in the third quarter year. we actually see that the, this morning's meeting will be the last hawkish hold but we expect them to turn to a slightly more neutral stance before the first quarter next year with the weakening of the domestic consumption data in the second

quarter next year we are expecting voters to vote for a cut, and that should signal a very strong pivoting for the bok 's stance, and then earning the cutting cycle starting in the third quarter next year. >> how big of a concern is the household debt issue, and are there policy levers that can help to try and fix this? >> so when we look at the details of the credit increase more recently it was mostly driven by the mortgage debt growth myths of the households have been clearly deleveraging on the personal loan and credit side, so that shows that the households have been feeling the burden of the interest rate payment with the higher policy rate. so for me the focus should be the housing market sentiment going forward from here and that should be the trigger and dictating the trend of the household debt growth or the decrease from here and it looks

that the housing market sentiment had been turning more bearish with the higher, the elevated rate environment so that should bring less concern on the household debt reacceleration or the rebound going forward. but at the same time that bok's -- >> we have that decision coming through with the key interest rate unchanged at three point 5% without 22, surveyed by bloomberg had forecast that bok to stay on hold at 3.5% in some these products are coming through the bok saying 2024 2.1 percent gdp growth slower than the projection made in august but they are maintaining that 1.4% 2023 failure gdp growth forecast that is unchanged. at the moment the currency is holding onto declines after that rate decision in the 2025 gdp growth number seen at 2.3% in the forecast for cpi inflation at 3.6% versus 3.5% the estimate

in august for the full year 2023 so clearly stickier and slightly higher inflation. 2020 for cpi and forecast 2.6 percent against the 2.4 percent estimate made in august so it seems like higher for longer when it comes to growth rates potentially and also on account of that stickier for longer inflation outlook going into next year as well. 2025 cpi at 2.1% for that forecast, so we really have been seeing traders at b's when it comes to equity traders treating this event as a bit of a nonevent but kathleen does it surprise you that were seeing this revision to higher inflation for longer at lower growth? >> um, in terms of next year's inflation forecast the upward revision was expected from us as well. the fact that the higher

headline at 2.6% should point to that the non-core prices are rising rather than the trend inflation turning around to the rebound. so for us it would not be a factor that would lead us to change our forecast of 2.5 percent headline inflation for the cpi year but we should continue to monitor very closely on how the core inflation performed from here. >> kathleen, what about some of the external headwinds we continue to see? china, the strength of regional trade and demand is the big one for korea. >> of course the downside risks remain from the china demand slow down, but in our view the bottoming of the china activities was this year rather than the next year. um, although the demand from the developed markets should be slowing down for korea in particular the higher

correlation of the exports with the overall real exports should be the driver for the recovery next year, so despite the slow down in the china demand and from the developed markets we think that the cycle should be the major beneficiary, benefiting factor for the recovery. >> kathleen, our chief korea economist at morgan stanley. you can get more analysis when it comes to that bok decision and the bank of korea staying on hold as expected but a number of revisions when it comes to inflation and growth forecast for this year, next year in 2025. you can get that our live blog. >> some breaking news, openai says sam altman has officially now been reinstated as chief executive officer and not only that but openai's board will include microsoft and a nonvoting observer role. there had been some concern that

if sam altman were to return that he would be more powerful than ever. the openai board has decided to include microsoft in a nonvoting observer role in they are saying one person is a partner in running openai. >> yeah, i think that really points to two what microsoft had really been angling for ahead of all this or the reaction to all the tumult at openai and possibly they could be considered as as a board member and the question of course is whether that would lead to any sort of issues with governance if you had a major shareholder backer of the company also being involved with the board and also potential conflict of interest, and certainly an interesting announcement that has come out just on wednesday here. the blog post penned by sam altman, as he said. another person worth noting the cto until the ousting of sam altman was briefly interim ceo

is back in the cto position so epic update with openai and sam altman saying he has never been more excited about the future. >> it continues. the latest on openai. this of course as we had the bok decision on hold as expected but so much focus on potential timing of when that central bank could again to put group rate cuts and some revisions when it comes to the cpi forecasting growth forecast going into next year in the year after. that is it for "daybreak: asia." our markets coverage continues. this is bloomberg. ♪

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