annabelle: this is daybreak asia. we are counting down to asia's major market opens. at the start of the week, maybe a little flat so far, but the moves coming through in the japanese yen. a push back again from japanese government officials saying if you are betting on the dollar yen as a one-way bet, think again. paul: we have been hearing from masato kanda today. some pretty strong words. we also heard from the boj, but not all that exciting. annabelle: that's right, the january policy meetings coming through but at that point, they were saying the inflation goal was coming into site and the condition to start hiking rates, and the delay in ending negative

rates, the risk of that was rapidly rising. that is the state of play into the morning session. we are monitoring those moves in the local currency. you are seeing it fractionally higher but i will say pretty much flat against the dollar. the other story is not just yen weakness but the dollar strength playing into its given you have treating in multi week highs. we will see the fed cutting rates as soon as the middle of this year. equities wise, a little bit under pressure so far. we did see a bit of a drop off on wall street for the end of the week even though it was the best week we have seen for u.s. stocks over the course of 2024. that is japanese markets as we come online. let's take a look at what we are seeing for korea. we have gains coming through in the kospi up 3/10 of 1%. perhaps we can wait as we get

more figures out this week. the preferred inflation gauge is one that we will be watching for. paul: let's take a look at how we are tracking in australia after the first hour or so. a pretty positive day. materials leading the way at the moment, fortescue metals, the iron ore company. we did see improvement, a lot of data coming out of australia as well. cpi numbers and consumer confidence as well to name a few. not a great deal of movement in the yields. the aussie dollar just a little from where we were earlier this morning. if we take a look at crude prices as well, brent climbing a little. 85 point 63. we are hearing comment we might see 2 -- need to see production cuts. the fed clearly in no hurry to

start using rates. let's look at how we are doing on u.s. treasuries as well. trading is just underway. annabelle: let's get more on the market moves and bring in hayden briscoe, a pothead of multi-asset portfolio management at ubs. the market has been on this assumption that the fed and other banks will start cutting rates. is that still driving markets or do you think there's a new kata -- catalyst? > the snb has hiked rates and the taiwan central bank has hiked rates. some marketing and some are easy. i think you picked up on dollar yen moves. i would not be surprised if it continues to push higher. why am i going to get into japanese yen? i would rather stay in u.s. dollars and pick up higher cash rates.

i think it is a gain. . they are draw boeing -- boning the currency but i don't think it is that concerning. the weaker yen is supercompetitive and they are buying back stock with it. annabelle: the chinese yuan and other currency looking at the weakness, is that something you track? some are saying it is a standout funder for the em fx carry trade. >> they are picking up somewhere between 2% and 3% depending on the day. it's a low volatility currency so i think that is a safer place to play if you want to play the carry currency trade and we have the china development forum over the weekend, some news coming out looking to support the economy. i think it it -- it has bottomed out. it means a longer-lasting cycle

somewhere around five to seven years. the typical is around three years. i think china is starting to grind up and we will start to see a better economy coming through. paul: what sort of and during changes do you expect to see in china's property credit market? >> i think the key is monetary policy. i keep reiterating that because this time they are not using fiscal like in the past. monetary policy, it has a lag so there's about 12 months to go. we are getting close to the point where the easing and policy will start to have implications and the economy will see pick up on the consumer side. i don't think it's all doom and gloom now. those who are leaning into doom and gloom are going to be losers on the next phase. paul: so if china sentiment is bottomed, do you see a rotation out of india back into china, and how are you position in those two markets? > at this stage, we are still

playing india but the one we are coming out of is korea. so we like moving back into the china market at the moment. we thought korea would be more tied to the ai type theme but we see it more tried to manufacturing on the ev side. so it is starting to top out. also, the changes did not come through that we are looking for to make it more buoyant for investors. we think that will be postelection and we need a lot more water under the bridge before we get back into korea. annabelle: you are referring to the value programs and not seeing what you wanted out of that? >> the value of program is a light touch. the main thing we are looking for is a change in inheriting stacks. that gets change, that will be compressions to the head stocks and that's what. we are looking for. other -- what we are looking for. annabelle: other credit markets, are you looking into southeast asia? >> there still a bit of a

valuation gap between ig and other valuations. we are still positioned in asia high-yield but probably thinking more investment grade, that part of the cycle. annabelle: what else are you liking in the market at this point in time? >> we still like stock markets around the world so we are still over weight. the cash rates will come down in the u.s. and that will be blamed for stock markets. it is not all doom and gloom either. people still have their jobs, people are employed. in the multiplier factor, you keep on focusing on the west and the interest rates. it's also fiscal and they have a long lag so it will be a lot more people employed than they thought. paul:paul: are you one of these foreign investors interested in buying out jgb's? >> not yet. we need to find jgb traders again because i don't think they

exist anymore. banks are looking for people employed back there. some of the carry opportunities in the front of the yield curve can be interesting, but jgb is probably have another 50 to 75 basis points higher before they settle down. the closer we get to 2%, i think it will get more interesting. paul: i want to talk a little bit about the bank of japan's extremely large balance sheet. we have a chart on the terminal that illustrates this. how long do you expect the unwinding process to take and do you think it can happen with minimal disruption? >> we were worried at the start when they started moving away from yield curve control. we saw what happened in the gilt market. i think they did a fantastic job of unwinding yield curve control. the market was not really functioning.

now i think the jobs easier. if they can handle that, the balance sheet question, that will be probably several years away. they want to see the second-round effects, they just don't want to see wage hikes. they want to see if the consumer demand can hang in and start lifting prices on goods. that's when they will start unwinding the balance sheets. annabelle: that was hayden briscoe from ubs asset management. thank you for your time this morning. taking a look at the movers so far, 10 minutes into the session, looking at the tech stocks, the apple linked names in asia. given we are getting more update on apple's scaling down of the business initiative. we have it scrapping the ev or electric car and now we are hearing from sources it will be ending in-house efforts to make watch displays and cutting jobs here. but the project would have been pushed into homegrown's greens

for the apple watches, but it has according to sources ceased that effort. the cost proving too much for the company to focus paul: on. paul:still to come, how job security is quickly vanishing from hong kong's formerly highflying bankers as ipos slumped the lowest level in more than two decades. up first, the chinese premier downplaying investor concerns about debt and property risks as officials front run positive economic news to support markets. this is bloomberg. ♪

paul: chinese premier li qiang is downplaying investor concerns of challenges facing the economy. he says beijing is stepping up policy support to spur growth. our global senior china executive editor joins us from beijing. how credible is this message, and how receptive is the audience to it? >> i think that's exactly what the audience wanted to see, this message from the premier that there's a lot policy-wise that china can do to get the economy up and going again. the premier talking about how there's a lot of space when it comes to inflation. china doesn't have inflation, if anything it worries about deflation at the same time. at the central government balance book, it does not have that much debt on it. there's a lot in terms of fiscal

policy, there's a lot beijing can do to get the economy revving again so there's a lot of expectation. we've seen the government getting money to replace old cars and equipment so there is expectation that there will be more done in that space. annabelle:annabelle: is there a sense that the shift is running on the front running equity releases? why do you think government officials are retreating or using it? >> i think they have taken this stock because they are getting more bang for their buck. they revealed there would be an rr cut 12 days before the fact we saw markets move up, as a result of him saying that at a press conference. we saw the premier giving out the gdp number for 2023 before it was published.

recently we saw finance official give out positive information about the budget before that was released. i think this is just another example of how the government in beijing is doing all it can including verbally and rhetorically to support the economy. paul: in terms of support for the property market, we heard this from him, a systematic planning of relevant supportive policies. that has to be the vaguest thing have heard from him. >> there's not a lot of detail yet, but the sentiment is what markets have decided on at the moment. places like guang joe and shenzhen, there are limitations on how many properties any household can buy and which ones are eligible. there's a push for more and more of those limitations to be rolled back and hopefully that will result in greater demand in the marketplace. that is the big problem.

there are homes on the market, nobody is there to buy the. this meeting on friday, it seems like the premier is talking about doing more to rev up demand. annabelle:annabelle: that was bloomberg's greater china senior executive editor john liu. the focus as well this hour is on japan's currency. the currency chief has warned against speculation and the foreign exchange market and says officials are prepared to take action if needed. for more, our ethics and rates strategist joined -- joins us from singapore. does this mean we can have some level of formal intervention? we have been hearing jawboning now for a number of days. >> i think the interesting thing is we did not hear this for today. i think last week, particularly when the dollar-yen reached 2022

and 2023 highs, i personally was expecting for him to come out and say something and he did not. it has happened. there's no surprise. i think this surprise is it took this long for it to happen. he thinks these are speculative moves so to the markets, we are prepared to act if we need to. the market has been here several times before, no surprise. in the markets always say actions speak louder than words. they will keep markets on edge having said that, but testing resistance around the 152 level. having said that, for pce data, if it comes to strong, that will push yields higher and the markets based on fundamentals should go higher with it. you have this month and quarter inflows by the beginning of this week to restore things, but at

the end of the week if it has not tested at the 152 handle, it may do if the pce data comes in strong. paul: you say that actions speak louder than words. what actions can actually hold. back of resurgent a roost -- a resurgent u.s. dollar? >> from the yen perspective, it is actually formal in perspective as it has done previously in 2022. as we've seen from that, the impact has been limited. unless it is coordinated intervention, any one side intervention will be short-term. having said that, it will have an impact on yen and could help quash dollar strength. the other thing is going back to the pce data. if it comes in weaker than expected, the markets will go, the fed has signaled three in the dot, there's a good chance.

we know the market likes to front run the fed so any chance to price in four, they would be more than happy. if u.s. eco-data starts weakening on the pce data or payroll data, i think the market will try and apply some forecasts. that will lead to some dollar weakness. annabelle: and where else we are seeing the dollar strength is in the you want as well because we've had a trading of a four-month low against the greenback. that fixing or reference rate on monday, how close a watch is that going to be? >> it will be extremely closely watched. the dollar broke out decisively on friday. the other question is how much lower will the yuan go? how much will the pboc intervene? it is more of a managed

currency. the fix will be at a first gauge of how strongly the pboc is pushing back. the other thing to look for is the one week forward points. when this happens, those tend to jump higher, they did friday, then stabilized and jump higher again. they are trying to deter investors from shortening the yuan. paul: our bloomberg news fx and rates strategist david finnerty. traders could get plenty of advance warning if last week's first hike in 17 years was anything to go by for the bank of japan. that was widely telegraphed and there were multiple leaks to japanese media. for more, let's bring in bloomberg opinion columnist dan moss. in terms of signaling to the market what you are thinking and leaking like a sieve, where is the line here?

>> the point that my colleague and i were making in our column today is there appears to be no line. you used the word telegraph. it is important to say most central banks will telegraph their general inclination prior to a meeting where there's likely to be policy action. what we've seen consistently from the bank of japan, particularly u undereda's leadership is next level. we are talking about leaks in excruciating and definitive detail, not just trial balloons, and they are coming while the meeting is in progress. it was like watching a football game last week. nhk was giving breathless updates of what ueda was tabling to the group while the meeting

was in progress. japan is wondering why it can't get into the five eyes, why on earth would you trust japan with the most sensitive national security secrets when the bank of japan cannot keep a rap on its own statement? annabelle: do we know why the information is being leaked? there's been a hypothesis or theory that it could be to undermine ueda, or is it too much turbulence and markets? why do we see these loose lips? >> if the government were opposed to the boj's policy direction, than the government would be a big culprit. in 2000 when the decision to raise interest rates was made, the government opposed that movement. it was clear the leaks had government fingerprints all over them. and i'm not talking about a telegraphing of general inclinations, which is widespread in the world of

central banking. i'm talking about very very high degrees of specificity. i've been talking a lot in the past week about how markets did not react at all to the historic boj shift. why would you react when it is already known? annabelle: that was our bloomberg opinion columnist dan moss. you can get a roundup of the story you need to know to get your day going in this edition of daybreak. it's also available in the bloomberg anywhere app. customize your settings so you only get news on the industries and assets you care about. more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪

paul: here's the latest geopolitical news we are following. u.s. vice president, harris has declined to rule out consequences for israel if it invades the crowded southern gaza city of rafah. she told abc news that washington has been clear in multiple conversations that a major military operation in the city would be a huge mistake. prime minister benjamin netanyahu has rejected the plea

-- more than 137 people killed in friday's attack at a moscow concert hall. people across the country gathered in memory of the victims and there is heightened security at major railway and airport stations. the ukraine says russian forces launched an aerial barrage on sunday including a missile that briefly crossed into polish airspace, while qubes forces struck airships on the crimean peninsula. they say they shot down most of 28 drones lost by russia -- launched by russia. annabelle: taking a look at how european futures are coming online this morning, a little bit muted, but still we are moving fractionally to that

upside. the euro trading fairly steady at this point in time, although we've seen a focus on dollar strengths. that is sort of the state of play, it was the best week last week for u.s. stocks over the course of 2024. for european stocks as well, it is about changing expectations about when we will see the fed, ecb and boe pushing ahead with rate cuts. coming up, china says it is stepping up policy supporters for growth and systemic risks are being addressed. grow ingressive meant -- investment group shares their china strategy, next. more ahead, this is bloomberg. ♪ her uncle's unhappy. i'm sensing an underlying issue. it's t-mobile. it started when we tried to get him under a new plan. but they they unexpectedly unraveled their “price lock” guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the “un-carrier”. you sing about “price lock” on those commercials. “the price lock, the price lock...” so, if you could change the price, change the name!

it's not a lock, i know a lock. so how can we undo the damage? we could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. their connection is unreal. and we could all un-experience this whole session. okay, that's uncalled for.

♪ paul: let's look at how we are

tracking across markets in the asian-pacific. mixed bag, nikkei off by 2/10 of 1%. remarks from japan's currency official, he said it was possible there was intervention on the horizon. the yen is weak. softness in the nikkei. the kospi is better by 1/10 of 1%. materials are leading the way with a bit of a recovery in the iron price, helping minors in particular. annabelle: it is a big week for earnings in china, but country garden will be reporting results and shedding light on the extent

of the crisis and its impact. let's get more from rachel. country garden, they are going to tell us if we have seen the worst or if there is more to come. rachel: these developers have been battling cash crunches and saute up -- sales returning. they secured a loan to avoid a default and they shook investor confidence because they are considered to be one of the more stable players. for country garden we are not seeing the cash crunch get better and seem issue with sales. a hong kong core is winding down the company.

they will see losses deepen and we can see the outlook, they are not looking good at the moment. we expect property stimulus includes home purchase cuts. it may not be enough to restore confidence or revive home sales. paul: the property slump in china is expected to impact chinese banks that are reporting next week. how do we expect the sector to do? rachel: major banks, earnings were given on how the property sector is faring. chinese banks maintained their benchmark rate and we saw loans

grow the slowest despite relaxed fiscal and monetary easing. banks may be impacted as china seeks to revive its property sector. icbc is expecting flat growth has real estate troubles continue. china may see low single-digit growth. annabelle: big focus on electric vehicles. rachel: byd is focused on volume and expansion. the sector in china is heating up and profit is expected tuesday stable. annabelle: that was earning

specialist rachel. let's get more on earnings. joining us, the partner and chief investment economist at grow. economists will sift through these numbers. it what do you make of what we have seen from the numbers? >> we need to look at the economy from two different perspectives. the numbers are week and access to homes into one cities is recovering. sales are still struggling big time. many developers will have little to show in terms of earnings. the eeev sector, new energy and

ai are showing booming sales and revenue. people need to look at the economy from two different perspectives. annabelle: you've got the old and new economy. sectors like materials and renewables, are they the ones you want to look at or do you want to go to names that are cheaper? hao: they are cheap for a reason so unless you see a strong catalyst, that can shore up sales numbers, but it would be difficult to change direction. if you look at sectors that are doing well, technology has been

doing well and since the low point, the tech sector is around 20% before the correction. despite the doom and gloom, there is a bull market in some sectors. paul: this is something li qiang was talking about, downplaying concerns and challenges facing china since those problems -- not as serious as people think. what are your thoughts? hao: it is quite serious in the sense that inventory is building up and a major source of revenue is falling. the situation is serious, but

one has to understand that right now the value add to gdp growth is less than manufacturing. manufacturing is good, but many sectors we discussed are good. the property mess will take years to sort through. paul: do you think the market will listen to this message? hao: um, i think, you know, we have been discussing a similar message since last year. it has been more than a year since we have tried to rescue the property sector, but we have very little results. if you're bearish on the chinese economy, look at the property sector and it will tell you most

economies struggle. if you look at the manufacturing sector, they are doing well. annabelle: can you shed some light on the exotic derivatives contracts? market gyrations, things like snowballs, is that behind us with the regulatory changes that came through? hao: the new chairman installed many regulations. many of the company holders use companies to liquidate. really good changes. the crash before chinese new year was a market structure

problem because you have derivatives kicking in in the market is dragged down, so now that we have that clear and we have the national team in the market supporting when the market is weak, the low point between the new year was one of the lowest points. annabelle: any volatility is frowned upon a little bit. does that make it more difficult to trade? hao: well, you're not encouraged so even if you have a long position shortening is frowned upon. in china we love volatility.

that means for many hedge funds that have been turning out good results because of volatility, investors could poll funds and put them into other strategies. since last year long dated bonds have been doing well. long shares for yields has been making new lows. annabelle: one of the opinion pieces, the point it made was part of the problem was caused by inexperienced traders. if volatility is frowned upon and you want everything to rise, does that limit the capacity of traders to cut their teeth? hao: i strongly disagree in the

sense that core funds have been in the market for 10 years. the strategy is long micro caps and short index futures. they have been turning out respectable returns. so it is very respectable. these guys have been trading in the market for 10 years, so it is because the snowball which would take a couple of minutes to discuss, the structure drags the index down and because of low liquidity crisis, we did not have enough liquidity for mega cap stocks. we can only rescue mega cap, so

you see a dichotomy in terms of return. so that episode is behind us and we need to look for new opportunities which tend to be in high-growth sectors right now. annabelle: thank you for your time. grow investment group. coming up, the weakness in hong kong financial industry. a barrage of layoffs. our big take is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ paul: finance professionals with chinese expertise were highly sought after but job security is vanishing. we are joined by asia finance reporter denise in hong kong. what is driving those job losses? denise: thank you for having me. one main reason for job losses is trading has been week. what we are seeing is subdued deal flow and investment banks

have been building up for the last 10 years and now it is not there. geopolitics, changes, that is the big decline in the last few years. annabelle: how does that undermine hong kong as a financial hub? denise: it has made it harder for hong kong because it is intertwined with china and it is hard when facing macroeconomic issues, loss of investor confidence, inflows dropping to low levels. it has started to pick up, but it is not sustained. so us china and hong kong

integrate, it is a financial hub. investment banking is a key part of the market. if it is not performing, it is tough. paul: what is the outlook for job seekers in hong kong? denise: i think it is a difficult market. i spoke to analysts who lost jobs. one looked around for many months and could not find a job. for every one private equity job that comes up, there are 100 resumes from bankers. if you get laid off, it is a time when most of the industry is getting laid off, which makes it hard to get jobs. paul: that was our asian finance reporter denise wee.

subscribers can learn more about the big take on the terminal. tune into bloomberg radio as well to hear more from newsmakers and get in-depth analysis from the team, live from hong kong. listen on the app, radio plus or bloombergradio.com. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ annabelle: taking a quick look at bitcoin prices, near 67,000. a big run up, tested last week. let's take a look because we have a terminal chart that tracks this decline. seeing a turnover starting to cool here. behind the rise we had seen given demand for bitcoin not being met in the market. let's bring in bloomberg intelligence etf analyst rebecca. why are we seeing this now given we had seen so many inflows. rebecca: most of the outflow is

coming from the gpt spot bitcoin etf. they charge the most, so you may recall in january there were more. some are charging zero basis points, so this is priced at one point 5%, the most expensive. they used to be a fund and now they are converted, so that is why we are seeing outflows. still seeing inflows into that, so if we look at bitcoin year to date, it is $160 billion. a phenomenal amount. assets under management across all etf's is 70 billion. spot bitcoin accounts for 53 billion. overall the market is positive, still a lot of inflows. grayscale is more expensive, so that is why you are seeing outflows.

two weeks ago grayscale announced a mini version of their etf. they will launch a cheaper version to compete in hopes of keeping inflow. annabelle: any sense of the pricing and how is the structure different? rebecca: they have not said how much but we are expecting under 30 basis points. if you hold the main gpt see, there will be an action that gives you access, so the big one will feed the small one. they have the benefit of the largest assets and scale, so they are able to keep 1.5%. people can get the same product for cheaper so that is why we have seen a lot of flows into other etf's. paul: what are the chances of spot ether etf's?

rebecca: for the u.s., this will not happen soon. our analyst predicts less than 25% of etf's are happening in the u.s.. there is a 91 day limit for the fcc to comment and we have not heard anything. we have two months to go but we do not think this will happen. spot bitcoin went to court and got approved quickly. so it is unlikely to happen in the next two months, but could happen by the end of the year. paul: bloomberg intelligence etf analyst rebecca. some corporate stories out of china, apple ceo tim cook revealed plans to invest in supply chains. he made the promise in a meeting with the finance minister. they spoke at the china

development forum, saying ai will be essential to help businesses reduce carbon footprints. >> we would not be able to recover the level of material that we do today for recovering without ai. it is already fundamental in our calculation and i think it provides an enormous tool in the toolkit for every company that is wishing to be carbon neutral or lower emissions by a substantial amount. paul: opec's annual profit declined 13% as oil prices fell and refiners posted a record year for imports. china's largest processor reported $8 billion in net income compared with $72 billion in 2022. prices were lower in 2023, reducing the value of drilling

output. dvds rather -- did's revenue shows recovery ahead of a listing this year. they had been losing market share since 2021 and regulators launched an investigation and forced it to d list. annabelle: paul, counting down to the market open in china and hong kong at the start of the day, futures are trading flat. taiwan opening next hour, a busy week. we've got the fed inflation gauge, one data point we are looking ahead to. today you've got equities under pressure, so it tracks losses in wall street into the close on friday. in the asia space, watching the chinese fix do in about 20 minutes.

we saw the currency dropping the most in more than two months at the end of last week. a busy month for chinese earnings. country garden and chinese banks, the impact of the property slope on major lenders in the country. still to come, we will speak to the aberdeen ceo stephen byrd about his outlook for markets and business plans in asia. that is it from daybreak asia. up markets coverage continues as we look ahead to trade. the china show is next and this is bloomberg. ♪

her uncle's unhappy. i'm sensing an underlying issue. it's t-mobile. it started when we tried to get him under a new plan. but they they unexpectedly unraveled their “price lock” guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the “un-carrier”. you sing about “price lock” on those commercials. “the price lock, the price lock...” so, if you could change the price, change the name! it's not a lock, i know a lock. so how can we undo the damage? we could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. their connection is unreal. and we could all un-experience this whole session. okay, that's uncalled for.

>> we are half an hour away from the opening