>> welcome to bloomberg. wall street is quick to push back rate forecasts for 2024. the bid in the bond market still waiting here. the 10 year yield 12 basis points, almost 13 basis points, higher on the day. in a week that saw the 10 year

low below the critical 40 level earlier in the week, that is now wiped out, back above 4.40 or higher. the s&p 500 off of session highs on the day but still about 0.3% higher. the same goes for the nasdaq 100. some green on the day. a little bit of cooling in the oil trade, still at $75 or more, but roughly flat on the day after a surge a day ago. gold spot taking a two .7% -- 2.7% leg lower. looking at just how much people are pulling back expectations, these are fed hikes that are priced in. september is something now seen as a coin toss. earlier in the week, expectations were a bit higher. citigroup and jpmorgan pushing

back expectations away from july closer to september or november. most of those expectations in the market still back in december of this year. bloomberg opinion columnist hamed el-erian -- mohamed el-erian had this to say. mohamed: this is on the demand side, not on the supply side. strong in terms of demand for jobs, employees, targeting wages paid, etc. it does close the door on a july rate cut. that is it it almost regardless of what the cpi numbers as next week. sonali: bloomberg's michael mckee joints me now. interesting to see some of the banks push back their rate cut expectations. the market was not really exciting july to begin with, so who does? get hurt? michael: there were some, citigroup the most prominent, but as they say out west ,there ain't no education in the second

kick of a mule. the jobs number, 272,000 and we saw wages going up, but two things happening at once put a kebabs on things happening in july. as you mentioned, things will be shaky at this point. morgan stanley went back to november. under the hood, you take a look at what happened, and basically, we got a normal may in the sense that we had a normal, nonseasonally adjusted number, than the seasonal adjustment takes it down by 681,000, and that is basically what we have seen in many recent mays, so not a huge deal. those are the numbers we got today in terms of jobs, 272,000, earnings at 4.1%. earnings is interesting because there is a calendar quirk in that this is a longer survey with allowed period period

additional paid, but we also had california minimum wage going up service industry is an fast food and health care to $20 an hour. good news, prime age for dissipation the highest since 2002. if you want to wear a tinfoil hat, the household survey and the establishments survey diverged a lot. household down 408,000 where we have the 272,000 in the establishment survey. sonali: what does this mean for? next week? there is jobs later today but when you have cpi around the corner and you have the wage data you saw today, how does that set the fed up for wednesday afternoon for their big meeting? michael: they will get the cpi report if there were some surprise, i suppose it could change something. but it is pretty baked in. you are talking about what the markets are expecting, and the one market that did not change today is next week's fed

futures, because no one expected them to do anything, and that is still the case. we have seen the market price out two rate cuts of this year, about a 1.5% chance by the end of the year, 100% of one cut, 50% of another -- this will change. it will be very volatile between now and the end of the year, so i think it leaves us not sure what is going to happen, and it leaves the fed not sure what is going to happen. sonali: everyone keep up your wirp screens on the terminal. that will let you know how quick everyone changes their mind. hope you have a great weekend into a very busy week ahead. for more on the jobs market, i am joined by elisabetta bartoloni, a partner at heidrick and struggles, one of the largest firms focused on recruitment of c-suite executives and otherwise. focus on the financial services industry and other industries. how do you think about what employers are trying to do in terms of leading into this

workforce? you have seen aggregate numbers that, yes, jobs are strong, but the economy is still so uncertain. do employers feel good about hiring? elisabetta: first of all, it is a pleasure to be here. you said it right. we basically focus at the top, so our data is skewed towards vice presidents and up. in general, what we have seen this year is employers being very cautious about where they want to put their money in the job market. we have seen a lot of activity in the m&a market, so hiring investment bankers with strong m&a portfolios of business, so what we have seen that has decreased is hiring the up and comers. that has not been the bull's-eye of the work. where we have seen a lot of work is bringing in those proven talent that really can increase

the revenue on a certain business. sonali: are you saying employers are really willing to take less of a risk here on people they do not know will be a sure thing? elisabetta: i agree. there has been more of a conservative approach, more focus on revenue generation right away, and a focus also on hiring individuals that do have a very good culture fit. that is something that has been, sometime, talked about on wall street, but culture has become more and more important within wall street. sonali: on one hand, to your point, people are adding talent. see in the wage numbers, in the aggregate economy, upward pressure on wages. i am wondering if some of that pressure is coming from more internal promotions rather than people looking outside to elevate their ranks. elisabetta: absolutely. what we have seen, in financial services this year, there has been a lot of -- a lot more

internal promotions. it is a combination of doing more with what you have and being cautious about spending the extra dollar to hire externally, but it is also a way to continue promoting internal culture. having said that, our numbers, our confirmation numbers for financial services, has been up significantly in the u.s. this has been a result of a lot of international banks really focusing on penetrating the u.s. market and, because of that, wanted to hire u.s. talent strong businesses. sonali: on the talents i, are people looking to leave their jobs? are they scared that, if they were to go somewhere else, the opportunity may turn on them? or are they saying this is exactly the right time, because they can start to raise their value? you go to find a new job, and that is where you get that raise.

elisabetta: it has been a combination, depending on where you sit. we have seen a lot of talent, especially if we look at investment banking broadly speaking. of course, investment banking, capital markets. last year, it was a really tough market from a composition perspective. that has increased the opportunity for talent to look at other opportunities where they could, in fact, get more compensation for what they do. at the same time, nobody is shy of understanding the risk of making changes, so there is a lot more conversations and time it takes for a candidate to be comfortable as they are looking at other opportunities. sonali: a couple years ago, there was so much focus on a talent war. there we have seen the talent -- the corner turn. if you were to look and categorize the talent war, how would you describe what is going on? elisabetta: for certain positions, it is very high.

if we talk about investment banking in health care, technology, consumer, those are hot markets. if we talk about convertibles, that has been a market that a lot of talent from the origination side has been extremely in demand. we have seen, also, a lot of requests of technology individuals, so if we move to the functional areas, technology has been royalty in terms of really trying to get talent into the companies. it is not just ai, it is transformation, innovation. it is a lot of work on the chief technology officer and chief innovation officer and so on. i would say those areas are really hot. there are other areas that probably cooled down and, for that talent that may have found themselves in roles less attached to revenue or these innovation rules, they may be

finding themselves in less of a market that is hot for them. sonali: what is the worry at this point or employers? elisabetta: employers are looking very clearly at the deal flow. m&a has been up this year, 20% globally from last year, and in the u.s., it has been 30% of -- 37%. that is really good, because it has been primarily the dark cap deals, so they are looking very closely at the deal flow. is it going to? continue, isn't it? recruiting, however, especially at the c-level, is very seasonal. we are very busy in their first few quarters of the year. the third quarter tends to be slower from a place my perspective, because individual start going on vacation, so the personal agenda gets in the way of the work agenda. in the fourth order, it tends to be more of a strategy time for the year to follow, so i would

say the deal flow is what they are looking at very clearly, and i would say, also, there is a natural seasonality into the hiring during the year. sonali: and it is the all most volatile time with the u.s. election season ahead. that is elisabetta bartoloni, a partner at heidrick and struggles, on what is a complicated and mixed picture for the job market, especially on wall street. coming up, watching shares of gamestop after he released earnings, and roaring kitty says he is returning to youtube. he started his livestream a few in its ago. the stock has been halted multiple times for volatility and is currently down about 30% on the day. we will talk about gamestop and our stock of the hour. this is bloomberg. ♪

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sonali: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm sonali basak. time for the stock of the hour, none other than roaring kitty. he is back. keith gill started his livestream on youtube, and shares of gamestop have been stopped multiple times for volatility, including now. it is currently down more than 30% on the day. the retailer also on excitedly released earnings and announced a plan to sell up to $75 million in additional shares. bloomberg's carmen reineke has been covering gamestop. it is not the first time we have seen shares of gamestop turnaround.

should retail traders should have known? carmen: this is the second time they have done it on this wave of the meme stock trading mania. gamestop is usually a sleeper trend day of this is the second time they have said they would sell additional shares gave the last time they raised about $1 billion, so that is obviously very significant for gamestop. sonali: how did the livestream start today? when it came up that skill would addressing traders, what was the first and he had to say? carmen: we were waiting with bated breath for the livestream, which was supposed to start at noon. he did not come on until 25 in its later. the comments session was a complete frenzy. when he finally started the livestream, he sort of did the

bit where he was dressed in a bandage and with band-aids and being shocked by the comments. he really just said, hey, i'm b ack, -- back, i kinda forgot how to do this was one of the things he said. a very interesting return. obviously, people have been waiting for years to see if you will say anything, and this recent frenzy trading in gamestop and mc was kicked off by his return to social media ban we have seen posts -- return to social media. we have seen posts on x and red dit. sonali: we have seen keith gill with the band-aids on at his relationship with the audience -- has the relationship changed at all? carmen: it seems kind of the same. people are excited about hearing keith speak again, a lot of

"let's go!" comments. there was anxiety about the room starting so late. i saw it comment saying, if this were college, we were have left already, where is the professor? then once the livestream started, he made an appearance and the comments section went wild once again get i think people are really excited about him being back. sonali: excited but we are also seeing gamestop shares halted again, as we speak, so certainly, people engaging with the stock as he is speaking to his audience here. interestingly, we had reported earlier that andrew left went short gamestop, do we know how this move is going to impact both keith gill and someone like an andrew left right now, who bet against him? carmen: it is really the long and short side of the trade. if you are long gamestop and

trading a short time, you do not want to see a 30% plus drop on the day. if you are a short seller, you might think this looks great. it is down almost 40% i am seeing on my terminal. andrew left was on cnbc saying he things this time is different, he has been in this trade before. we reported that he was short again. it is really interesting. it feels like a resurgence of 2021, with just a few slight tweaks. sonali: thank you so much for joining us on this. a lot of people will be watching that livestream as well, still ongoing, and as we have been saying, gamestop shares, on-and-off, halted through the day. that is bloomberg's carmen reinicke. coming up, we will talk about wealthy families driving a resurgence in private equity buyouts. we will take a look at it on today's wall street beat. this is bloomberg. ♪

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sonali: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm sonali basak. time for the wall street beat. ultrarich individuals and families with more than 150 billion dollars are all helping drive a resurgence in private equity buyouts in what has otherwise been a tough time for the buyout industry. joining us now is bloomberg's christine rm, who wrote the story -- who was part of the team who wrote this story. private assets have been of interest to urge individuals, but why private equity? seems like a tough time to get in, especially as of the industry has been under pressure. >> it is an interesting time and space. on the private equity side, --

they have allocated everything they can or want private equity for now. from the firm perspective, the option is either we will to pay for leverage or we find alternative investors, and those who emerged are these wealthy individuals and wealthy families. they have come out and said they are more interested in adding five equity assets to the portfolio than any other type of asset class, except for emerging market stocks. so it is -- they are just chasing the returns in some of these investments. you can see that in the fact that about $20 billion worth of capital have been bought by all the individuals. sonali: are there prominent examples we should be looking to that solidify what this trend means? shirley, they cannot be looking

across the entire industry at this point. kristine: michael dell's family office, one of the richest people in the world. his family was involved in the guest leveraged buyout deal of the year so far for endeavor group, a talent agency. the has not closed yet. it is expected close in 2025, but that was a very prominent example. others are a european and german family. they are not particular involved in the u.s. they come from boilers, not exactly a sexy industry, but they were involved in a deal alongside kkr. and the family behind lego was also involved in a big deal. so it is kind of happening all over the world involving some of the biggest ee names, involving

fortune bonds on both sides of the atlantic, and we are seeing a variety. sonali: we have to leave it there. thank you so much for your time. i love some of the reactions we are getting to the story as well. for example on the platform x -- "all for earning a few percentage points below their beta going forward, but feeling so much more clever than the average joe in an index fund." the private versus public debate keeps going. also watching shares of gamestop. keith gill, a.k.a. roaring kitty, speaking now in a youtube livestream. he started late, but since he started, the stock of gamestop has been halted, down more than 33% on the day. more than 600,000 people are watching this livestream at the moment. of course, a lot of questions about that potential share sale, plan to share sale from

gamestop. for today, roaring kitty goes on, but i am heading out. i am sonali basak "bloomberg markets here that does it for "bloomberg markets" this friday. -- i am sonali basak. that does it for "bloomberg markets" this friday. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> from the world of politics of the world of business, this is "balance of power." ♪

live from washington, d.c. joe: the job market stays hot. where is it going? welcome to the fastest show in politics. with payrolls out today doing debate over interest rates. i'm joe mathieu in washington. thank you for joining some bloomberg. our conversation with the active labor secretary julie su and labor economist kathryn edwards at rand. we start in the markets with charlie pellett in new york. charlie annmarie: thank you --charlie: thank you. looking at the dow jones. we have the doubt moving lower, down 16 points. -- sorry, higher by 82. s&p 500 index of 16. nasdaq up 48, i gain of .3%.