>> we are 30 minutes into the u.s. trading day on friday, dune 28th. here are the top stories. inflation cools. the fed's preferred measure of prices slowed in may bolstering the case for lower rates this year. a disastrous debate, round one of biden versus trump sets off alarm bells. just over four months to go ahead of the u.s. election. trading places. taking stock of what is in, out, and on top with the annual rebalancing of the ftse indexes take place.

katie: welcome to bloomberg markets. you look at markets on this friday morning, of course it's the end of the first half of the year. for now, you have stocks rallying. the s&p 500 is up about .4%. that is a rally that is continuing to build this morning. the same thing at the nasdaq 100, currently higher by about .7%. the bond market, it's interesting. yields are lower but not by much. the 10 year yield is currently down two basis points. pce earlier this morning, we had the university of michigan data breaking now, so let's get to the data. >> for the second time today we have a positive surprise. 1600 pennsylvania avenue on any other day you would really like this news. the headline confidence index rises to 68 point two from 65.6,

a significant increase. the current conditions estimation is 65.9 from 62.5, another big jump. the expectations index rises 69.6 from 67.6. from the fed's point of view, 20th and c street as long as we are doing addresses, inflation expectations drop. falling to 3% from 3.3%. the university of michigan's five to 10 year expectations fall. so, completely good news throughout this report. pce is flat for the month, coming out to be about a negative 0.01% pushing the headline year-over-year to 2.6%. the core 0.1 percent since the year.

spending is up and wages are way up in terms of overall compensation, .7%. good news across the board on the economic data today. it should be good news for a candidate. that is a different issue, but it's good news for the fed and keeps them on track to may be lower rates this year. katie: let's go into the issue head-on. this should be good news. of course, it's a difficult message to communicate. walk us through that. michael: the problem is, first of all, the expectations numbers are distorted by political party. if you go back and you look at what was happening when donald trump was president, republicans thought that the economy was great and democrats thought the economy was terrible, and independents were in the middle. now you have the exact reverse. you can see in the middle where everything crosses, that is january of 2021 when joe biden took power.

democrats think the economy is great, republicans think the economy is terrible, independents are in the middle. the disturbing thing for the biden campaign is not only do we see independents closer to republicans, but as you can see even democrats have been discouraged. a warning, that chart did not include this last month because the debate was only last night, but it shows that there is work to do. even if americans are feeling a little bit better, they are not feeling great yet. katie: a great chart. i liked the red, white, and blue. it was a nice touch. let's get to the senior equity strategist starting with politics. it is the topic of the day. when you think about the u.s. election and cycles of the past, how do you account for any potential volatility? or, do you look right through it? >> did morning. thank you for having me on today. it is especially interesting

after watching the debate last night. very, very interesting to talk about historically you have a volatile summer in an election year. we at federated hermes have a 5200 target on the s&p. we are 5500 now. we are bullish for 6000 next year. we were reluctant to lift it as many others did because we thought we might have a volatile summer. you may have a volatile summer with politics this year, but that is ok because we have been up very strongly. we very much believe in the broadening out play that may have just started last week which would take the markets towards 6000 into next year. katie: walk me through that. at the benchmark level, if you are expecting a decline to the end of the year, how can at the same time you have a broadening out outside of just the big benchmarks? linda: it is the problem that we

want to tell what we think the year-end number will be, but you have never seen a market so concentrated where 37% of the market cap is 10 names. one of the names in the next quarterly review, if they say something wrong like tesla has done and falls out of bid, the s&p will fall quickly. it is the broadening that will show the health of the economy and market. it is tough to put a number when you are so concentrated, which is why we want to emphasize we are bullish into next year with the 6000, because we don't see a recession coming on. katie: appreciate that context. i want to talk about the broadening out more. you think about it, the price differentials between small caps, mid-caps, and the large-cap benchmarks. you think about the strength of the economy, it seems straightforward when you combine that with rate cuts. still come you haven't seen a sustainable broadening out. what is going to be the

catalyst, linda? linda: it is a very unclear time.people are having a hard time figuring out where we are in the economic cycle because you have mixed numbers coming through. we even had that this week with regionals being mixed and housing numbers not good, but when you look at inflation expectations -- which are huge and could be good news for us as we look at the fed -- when you see jobs plentiful versus hard-to-find index -- which was great news this week -- it is all about jobs and it will be all about earnings. the earnings, and we will hear more and more in the next two quarters, will be much easier year-over-year comps for those cyclical areas that have yet to really catch the bid that we expect they will do. we are watching for earnings results, margin comments the second half of the year, employment stays good, and that is a nice set up into the end of

the year. katie: it is interesting to have over expectations. i was talking with nicole inui of hsbc in the earlier show saying that for bigger areas of the market the expectations are too rosy when it comes to earnings and of the economy. it sounds like you are saying for more cyclical names that expectations maybe are a little easier to surpass? linda: it's interesting that the second quarter expectations from the earnings growth, when you exclude all things tech is 2.5%. the bar should be reasonably easy to reach and go over. the valuations are very good. it has just been too tempting to buy the names that we know too well and keep going up. it seems like the safest play. as you suggested, small caps, cyclicals are inexpensive versus history. large-cap cyclicals should be the easiest ones next to go for.

we made a run at it last year just came back with big names this year. we could make a run at it again here if we feel good about second-quarter earnings going into the third. katie: looking at earnings, looking at the fundamentals of a company, what metrics are you most paying attention to? a lot of focus on cash flow, on net debt, what are you scanning for? probably two most important things is what is the debt situation of the company and what debt needs to be rolled over? that is the tough part for small-cap companies who need to have earlier maturity dates but are more variable in their rates.it is a big piece of your expenses. the other big piece of your expenses is the employment figures and year-over-year wage increases have been too strong to be commensurate with the 2% unemployment rate. those numbers have come down. there has been late reporting.

we are at 4% unemployment. the average rate going back to the 1940's is 5.5%. the unemployment rate could still creep up and help margins if companies lay off some people. that would be potentially good news for earnings. this is where the margin figure is important to us. there margins held up extremely well which is what surprised the market so much last year and even into this year. it just gets tougher as the top line gets tougher to push through your expenses and consumers hold back, won't pay it. katie: the pricing power story that has supported markets over the past few years, maybe we are finally at the limits. when you talk about balance sheets and the level of debt when it comes to these companies and how you evaluate them, do you find any specific sector or industry that has more debt than the other, does that cross sides, what is the common

denominator among the companies that have debt problems now? linda: there are definitely debt -heavy sectors of the economy. the cyclical sectors that are very much reliant on debt. even utilities use a lot of debt. they spread out their debt when the interest rates are very low. pots of companies took advantage of very low interest rates who are that heavy. it is more about the maturity of their debt and when they need to roll that over. in the united states, it is not your grandfather's and sand p. it is more asset light. you don't need to borrow as much money. when you look at cash and corporate balance sheets as a whole in the united states, they're in very good shape versus history. lots of companies aren't really worried about it. katie: i have to leave it there. i always appreciate your time. that's take a look at what is

moving underneath the markets. we will do that with jess, sitting to my left. talk about the winners in the first half of the year. >> looking at not surprisingly what the best performer is, it is nvidia even though it stumbled in recent weeks around 150%. the best percentage and point again age, but behind that constellation energy. part of this is tied to ai and data center-type businesses. flipping over to look at the declining side, walgreens is the biggest percent declining down over 50% year-to-date. earlier this week it cut its four-year adjusted outlook because it's all sluggish demand for its pharmacy and consumers. if you want to look at the point decliners in the s&p 500, tesla is the biggest. behind it is intel. both of those have different issues when it comes to their growth outlook. katie: some real have and

have-nots when it comes to the first six months of 2024. what is moving on this friday? jess: nike, nke, down over 18% on pace for its worst percentage decline if this holds into the close since february of 2001. if you look at the four-your outlook it came short of expectations. you're seeing issues of slowing demand with some of the more casual shoes.if you look at some that are benefiting, adidas is higher. on the flipside if you want to see what other companies that nike is bringing lower, lululemon is also lower down about 3%. lululemon is the second worst performing stock in the first half of this year, down over 40%. katie: bring it home. jess: another ai-tight play,

when you look at the deal for nokia. 70% of the deal will be paid in cash and the rest of it will be the nokia american depository shares. a $2.3 billion deal. i was talking to our equity team when it comes to the regulatory process. she was saying that it could be lengthy because nokia would be buying a u.s.-listed company here. that is something to watch. if you look at this, up about 18% come on pace for the best day since november of 2022. nokia, the u.s.-listed shares are up close to 2%. katie: really interesting potential m&a. have a great weekend. coming up, president joe biden and donald trump trade barbs in the first presidential debate. all of the details and fallout next. this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. biden: we brought down the price of prescription drugs, major issue for most people. we are working to bring down the price around the kitchen table. steve trumpian has done a poor job in inflation is absolutely killing us. he inherited almost no inflation and it stayed that way for almost 14 months and that it blew up under his leadership. katie: round one is over. president joe biden and his republican challenger donald trump squaring off in the first presidential debate in atlanta. the performance from president biden raising questions about the future of his campaign. joining us from bloomberg

opinion in atlanta, and your call and you write that kamala harris won the debate. >> she had a very unenviable task at the end of the night, which was to spin what was an unspinable performance by joe biden. tasked with assuring americans that he was up to the task, that age was not a factor in how he did his job, and he failed at that. in comes kamala harris about an hour after the debate saying it is in about style it is about substance. on substance, this is a president who has delivered time and time again for the american people. her presentation was great. she is young, smart, and then will on her feet, obviously trained as a prosecutor.

watching that debate, watching joe biden's performance, you couldn't help but think that kamala could have handled this handily and debating against donald trump. i don't think that we will see that. i'm not making the case that harris is going to replace joe biden even though there is a lot of hang ringing -- handwringing on cable news and democratic circles, but i think that she is a brilliant asset that this administration and reelection campaign needs to use more often. there are plenty of voters who would love to see a kamala harris presidency. they need to see kamala harris, particularly african-american voters and voters of color and women as well. they say where is kamala harris, why isn't she doing more? now's the time to put her out on the stage, give her a more front facing role in this reelection,

because she is a better messenger than biden. she is a better spokeswoman for his administration than he is. this is something that the campaign really needs to understand right now. katie: harris is an asset and the administration and campaign should be using her more, to your point, is there a risk? you think how the republican party has treated her. they have really vilified her. >> they did. some of that has to do with the fact that she is a woman. some of that has to do with the fact that she is a woman of color. americans are not used to looking at a woman in that position. we saw what happened to hillary clinton. this is something americans are still dealing with. what does it look like for a woman to be in power? what does it look like for a woman to be the leader of the free world? putting her out there americans

can get used to that. will there be blowback? absolutely. there will also be rallying behind this ticket, because there are plenty of people who would want to see a woman president, a very strong and visible and powerful second in command. that is one of the problems. kamala harris is not a visible presence in the administration. when bill clinton ran for president there was the idea of that you get two for the price of one. he was talking about hillary clinton. that is something that biden needs to start telegraphing. as a candidate he said that he would be a bridge to the next generation. that is something that needsto happen now. i'm not saying that he's going to or should step aside, but he has an entire bench of people with kamala harris in the one

spot that he has to used to try to drag him across the finish line. it is going to take all hands. i think kamala harris, given that she is vice president, is the most qualified to make the case that he should get another four years with her as a teammate. katie: i only have 45 seconds left, but why not? a lot of people are saying that kamala harris, maybe she should be the person actually running for the top job. maybe joe biden should step aside. that is not your base case, but why not? >> i think this will be argued over the next many weeks. this is a decision that joe biden will have to make. it is a herculean task to convince a sitting president to switch gears and stand aside this late in the game. i think people biden with the last name -- i think people with the last name biden are the only

ones who can convince president biden to do that. the democrats need to figure out what they do if he stays at the top of the ticket. how do you sell this as a package deal? almost like the avengers coming to the rescue to sell this message and this president again and say that he should get another four years. katie: appreciate your insight. still ahead, we will look at the companies making the most social buzz in our social climbers segment. let me bring you breaking news. this is coming from the supreme court overturning the chevron ruling. that is a blow to agency power. the supreme court overturning the chevron ruling. that is a blow to the agency's power. we are expecting more headlines and details next. this is bloomberg. ♪ bringing you an elevated experience, tailor-made for trader minds. ♪♪

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katie: back to the breaking news

that the serve pre-and court is overturning the chevron ruling -- to the breaking news that the court is overturning the chevron ruling. joining us is the bloomberg balance of power cohost kailey leinz. talk us through the potential ramifications. >> they could be significant for agencies like the security and exchange and the epa. this was established in 1984 and essentially gave the power of agencies like this the ability to interpret laws that are vague. some of the legislation that comes out of congress can be vague, and they would use their in-house experts to interpret the law and apply it accordingly. the court overturning this takes the power away from the regulators which means that much more this will have to be litigated in court and ultimately decided by the court rather than the agencies. about things that the epa has

put out, including autoignition standards.that could be challenge the way that the security and exchange commission interprets security law. it's almost 100 years old and has. this is the second day in a row that we've seen a blow to regulators. the court also ruled yesterday against the sec's in-house judges which will limit not only the sec but other agencies and how they try fraud cases internally. now that has to go to a jury. we are seeing the supreme court with a conservative majority ruling against regulators. of course, the term is and over. we get more opinions on monday. katie: i want to ask. we talked about the epa. the implications. what about wall street? you mentioned the sec. what could this mean? kailey: it could change the way in which the sec is able to interpret its own authority. existing securities law has been

on the books since the mid-1900s. they apply it to things like digital assets, saying that the laws do not need to be rewritten. it could limit the ability to do that unless congress rights more clear loss that could be interpreted directly, it could be up to the court discretion to read those vague laws. it could apply to the federal trade commission. the efforts underway to ban non-competes, for example, this could throw this into question. at the end of the day this takes a lot of discretionary power away from the regulators putting it into the hands of courts of law, including the supreme court that ultimately had to come down with this decision. katie: we -- it will be fascinating how this works out in practice. i know that you had a long 48 hours. talk to us about what is still left. i know that we have more opinions coming, including trump's claim of immunity. kailey: that is the big one. his question of immunity from prosecution in washington on the case brought against him by special counsel jack smith.

that case can't move to trial in which he is charged with four criminal accounts related to january 6. they're waiting until the last possible second to do so. they also have to decide a question regarding january 6 defendants and if they can be charged with obstruction. this goes back to the enron doctrine. it cannot only be applicable to those defendants but it could have implications for the election subversion case which trump is charged with in washington. it is interesting that the court has chosen to deliver them to the public after that presidential debate between trump and biden last night. we still have much to hear from the high court. the opinion they for sure is monday. they haven't yet said that that is the last day of the term. they could potentially drag this out even further into next week. katie: they are running up

against the july 4 holiday. so, it is a very narrow window. bloomberg balance of power cohost kailey leinz, thank you. let's turn to who is in and who is out. we are talking about the annual russell rebalance that takes place after the market close. allows fund managers to adjust their portfolios based on the new weightings. joining us with more is the ftse russell director of product management. it is great to see you in person. let's talk about the rebalance. it takes place after the close of markets today. there's about $10.5 trillion in investor assets that actually track the russell u.s. indices. what do you expect in terms of trading rebalance volume, for example? >> the market is expecting roughly higher than last year. last year there were 135 billion dollars across the close across the nasdaq and exchanges. the market is predicting $150 billion roughly. katie: what does that mean in terms of volatility?

it feels like nothing moves this market for too long, but we are talking about a big chunk of trading coming through. >> over the years russell reconstitution has improved the process in terms of transparency, making sure that the market knows what is coming. this year we announced the changes on may 24. the market, our client's market practitioners are preparing already starting in february. the market knows what is coming. they are preparing their trades going into the close. 21 years ago the nasdaq introduced the closing cross, and since then they have been using the closing cross with nasdaq at the close and there is the closing auction process. all of this makes it a more seamless rebalance and we have improve the process over the years. we have been through more volatile markets.we have been through brexit occurring around reconstitution in 2016.

covid was the highest volume that we've seen at the 2021 russell recon close. katie: you make a good point. you give people a lot of advance notice. market participants are well prepped and it happens every year. that is what i want to talk about. you rebalance annually once a year. i know that you are in discussion to rebalance maybe twice. how is that discussion going? >> we launched a consultation at the end of last year. the consultation is closed. it is available on our website and we welcome feedback that market practitioners could provide in the how we can improve the process. we intend to give the market ample notice. we have to be thoughtful about making any changes to the methodologies. the market would be given ample notice. we have not made a decision yet, but more to come on that. to clarify, it isn't about concern about the process or methodology itself, it is the

growing size of the trade at the close of russell reconstitution. the feedback has potentially breaking that into two to reduce the volume at that one constitution, and we have quarterly ipo inclusions which has shown to reduce the side of the trade at the reconstitution because we are adding more entrance at the september ipo inclusions. katie: it is not the size of the retrading and rebalance it is not the concentration in the market. a lot of people could read that you're talking about increasing the period of rebalance. to your point, it's about minimizing market impact. >> general feedback is that the russell indexes reflect the market. that is our job, to represent what's happening in the markets. clients continue to like the methodology and how it continues

to represent large-cap with the russell 1000 small-cap russell 2000, and growth and value segments. they agree with our classifications of growth and value large-cap, small-cap, but is about the size of the trade. katie: i'm excited to get your thoughts on concentration. it is hard to have a conversation about the markets with any investor of any size without talking about how top-heavy it feels like every benchmark is right now if you are tracking by market cap size. what do you make of it? >> we do reflect the markets. we are just representing what is available as an investable opportunity. it is true that the u.s. mega cap segment has grown more than the smaller cap. you take the magnificent seven stocks, they grew more than 40% since the last reconstitution.the broad market , inclusive of the magnificent seven, has grown 20%. we have seen growth in the market. it has been an ai, text,

growth-heavy, momentum-fueled market and we are here to reflect what's happening. katie: it sounds like market participants agree with your definitions, but i want to talk about sizemore. -- about size more. if you look at the current market cap definition, it is about a ceiling of $2 billion. if you adjust that for inflation, you get something different. if you compare to billion-dollar market cap 50 years ago, that is worth $12 billion today because numbers have gotten bigger. has there been any discussion about maybe altering the definition when it comes to what is a small-cap stock? >> because russell indexes have been around for 40 years and you have a huge following already, we again have to be thoughtful about making changes. what we've been introducing is for those clients who need a capped index, for example, for the russell growth, we have launched the russell 1000 that

reduces the weights of the largest names with 550 limits. we also segment in different ways. you can take the russell 1000 and we have the top 200 mega cap, mid-cap top 500 and a commonly used mid-cap index is the russell 2500. there are ways to split the modularity using the modular framework. largely, the definition stays true with the russell 1000, russell 2000. for the clients who want to think about different ways of slicing the market, we have the ability to do so. katie: so there is something for everyone. i want to go back to the discussion about a potential twice a year rebalance.you said you're open to opinions now. you are in a consultation period. what is the timeline? when would you make a decision? >> at this point, the earliest -- obviously, no changes for 2020 four.

that is too soon. the earliest we would make changes is 2025. even that is potentially further down the line. we intend to give the market at least 12 months notice to process what is happening and prepare for that event. katie: it is great to see you. appreciate your time on a friday morning. thanks to catherine yoshimoto. about an hour into the u.s. trading day, let's get a check on the markets. abigail: stocks started higher .3% but now we are at session highs for the s&p 500 meaning another all-time high. you can see it on this month to date chart. clearly the s&p 500 is rising in june of 5.4% in the first half of the year at 50% after yesterday -- after last year's full year gain of 23%. the are very much in charge despite the bearish divergences we talked about in recent weeks. let's talk about what is happening beneath the surface

for the s&p 500 on the week, because this is interesting. apple is gaining up 3.6%. we had some reporting about the iphone in china popping, surging after discounts. the stock below the breakout level of 220, but also above support at 200. technically this is interesting. fedex is up 19%, the best week since july 2020. the possibility of doing something with the freight business, perhaps spinning it out. nvidia had been slightly higher and now it is down .4%. earlier the stocks had been down for the second week in a row. the last i looked it was slightly higher and it may be back in the red. micron down for percent on the disappointing outlook. let's look at the technicals because we have something that's going on, which is an negative rsi or an rsi coming off of overbought territory.

it is likely we see stocks go to the 50 day moving average as the rsi makes his way towards oversold territory. that could of course take many weeks. finally, talking about the first half of the s&p 500 up about 15%, when we have a double-digit gain in the first half of the year, more recently this has tended to lead to a gain in the second half. lester up 7.1%. you can see healthy gains. one exception is 1987. of course, that was the black monday, the wall street selloff. will this year be that? less likely. more likely we will continue to have again. that is also true in presidential years. the only years or 1987, 1932, 1940, in 2008 that were tough years. katie: we will see if this year is any different. thank you. investors are looking for hints on major policy shifts out of china. mary lovely discusses the

mounting challenges facing president xi, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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abigail: you are looking at a live shot of the principal room. coming up the former republican presidential candidate ramaswamy at 11:00 new york time. katie: it is time for our daily wall street week conversation. the elite of china's ruling communist party will meet in july for a highly awaited gathering, usually the long-term charting a policy. sitting down with david westin to talk about the top priorities as he faces mounting challenges. >> we see weak domestic demand,

low business sentiment. some signs of exit of foreign investors. so, he has some work to do to revive the economy in the short run. a little longer term, there are lots of challenges. he has put his money down on innovation and so-called high-quality development.this encompasses reforms two broad sectors of the economy . nevertheless, these things need to be done and changes need to be done now. he needs to find a way to restore confidence while helping transition to an economy that is built on investment, greening the system, building a more sustainable and equal system. >> tell us about the relationship between the chinese economy and economies in the rest of the world starting with the united states in particular. a lot of talk about a so-called second china shock.

that businesses, starting with ev's, and europe is concerned about that as well, how big of an issue is that for china? >> for china it is a big issue and we've seen that in the diplomatic response to u.s. claims of overcapacity. they have consistently said that the world needs their green energy products. they doubled down on their strategy. it is not unusual in china for there to be lots of rapid growth, particularly -- a lot of ryan growth, particularly because it is done through the provinces. some firms are surely going to exit because of weak earnings or losses that overwhelm to their ability to say in business. we are seeing china rationalize at the same time the west is saying no way are we going to experience what we experienced before. we are going to take

preventative steps. we saw president biden a few weeks ago put tariffs on ev's, solar, medical equipment, and products as a way to get ahead of the so-called new wave of chinese exports. >> let's talk about the preventative measures that you call them. what is u.s. policy economically, specifically with respect to china? there was a time when we talked about decoupling. you say that it's too much because it's too large of an economy. but it seems like we are de-risking a lot of what china is trying to give us? >> every step we take seems to be towards decoupling and not de-risking. de-risking what have a specific target. when president biden puts tariffs on medical supplies coming out of china, in some sense that is de-risking.we saw

during the pandemic that we were overreliance on china for personal protective equipment and other medical supplies. that would be a form of de-risking. we see so many different approaches to moving away from china. not only the retention of the trade war tariffs which had a large effect on moving activity away from china, but to the new tariffs and export controls which have been very effective in limiting exports of semiconductor and semiconductor manufacturing equipment to china, to the listing of sanctions on a growing number of chinese firms. these are some of the ways that the u.s. has basically signaled its desire to de-integrate with china. >> we have an election in the united states in november. president trump when he was president took a strong stance on china.

it isn't clear that president biden backed off of that for all of the reasons that you described. in some ways he went further. what difference does it make an u.s.-china relations which manus the next president of the united states? >> it makes a profound difference. president biden has been more effective, i think, in terms of hitting china in ways that matter for u.s. security. in particular export controls. the key to the success of export controls its incoordination with other nations, in particular japan and europe who hold key parts of the semiconductor supply chain. without that coordination export controls wouldn't be effective. president trump's promising 10% tariffs across the board on all nations. a so-called flat 60 on china. this is a clear signal to the other nations that the u.s. is in it for its, so-called america first. i think that it would undermine

a lot of policies to push back on chinese policies that we think are unfair but also diversify the global economy. i think that it's vitally important --a vitally important election for u.s.-china relations. katie: that is mary lovely speaking to david westin. tonight on wall street week that is coming up at 6:00 p.m. breaking news coming from the supreme court, backing a defendant of the january 6 trials, curbing the use of the enron law. this could affect trump and hundreds of january 6 cases. nearly 300 defendants including donald trump were charged under the 2002 law. let's go back to kailey leinz in washington. i'm seeing you a lot sooner than i thought i would. tell me what we know so far. kailey: obviously the court has ruled in favor of the defendant,

joseph fisher, who is one of hundreds of january 6 defendants who have been charged with obstruction.something under the 2002 law came from the collapse of enron allowing a person to be charged or sentenced to 20 years in prison for obstructing an official proceeding. the justices have decided that the obstruction could not be applicable in the case of january 6. wondering what official proceedings should be defined as in the obstruction case. not only is this significant for those charged in the riot at the capitol on january 6, but for donald trump. in washington in the election subversion case that was brought against him by the special counsel jack smith, two of the four charges related to obstruction. one is obstruction of and the second attempt to obstruct an official proceeding. those charges against donald trump is potentially complicated by this court's decision today as they've curbed the use of the

enron law. i would point out that this is the last opinion that you're getting from the court today.we are waiting for the immunity question that donald trump has brought to the high court in the washington case that i'm speaking of. if he is immune from prosecution in that case. we are waiting for the court to rule on that. monday is an opinion day. it could stretch further into next week. we are waiting to hear from chief justice john roberts on when the end of the term will be, but the immunity case tied with the january 6 the case. the supreme court siding with the january 6 the defendant in a ruling that could potentially affect hundreds of those like him related to the events of what went down at the capitol on january 6, 2021. katie: to tie a bow on everything that has happened in the last when he for hours, we had biden's debate performance and now we had this ruling coming down from the supreme court, it has been a rough day

for the biden campaign. kailey: free democrats across the board. there is panic in the democratic party given what went down with donald trump performing more strongly in the debate then joe biden, who often stumbled over his words, misspoke, paused extensively. joe biden looking very much like an 81-year-old incumbent who is deeply unpopular. many in the country are concerned he's not fit for another four years in office given his advanced age even though donald trump is three years younger at 78. while joe biden tried to draw a contrast between himself and donald trump on issues of morality, calling out donald trump for being a convicted island, as he is in the new york hush money case where he was found guilty of 34 felony accounts of falsifying business records, we have seen in polling that the legal challenges for donald trump are not influencing voter opinion of him. a new york times siena poll that came out before the debate found that two thirds of voters said that the conviction didn't

matter. as we question when the immunity question comes down from the court, if the washington case can go to trial before the election, there is the question of how much it matters when voters still seem in the republican party to be a coalesced around trump and many in the democratic party are noting what is a pretty bad performance from joe biden and are concerned about his ability to carry forward as the democratic nominee or if you may need to back down for someone else. katie: the headline that the supreme court's last opinion day will be monday. i will see you then. you can catch kailey leinz on balance of power. she is the cohost with joe mathieu. there's a lot of coverage there. on this program, let's talk about losing trust in the bond market sparking a massive etf rush. joining me on this etf friday, the senior etf analyst for bloomberg intelligence. eric, i think that we are talking about buffer etf's when you are referring to an

alternative to bonds for the older investor? >> these are etf's that use customized options to target your outcome. you can think of it like the biotech industry helps older people live longer, live more comfortably. these etf's are designed at older investors to help them sleep at night. if you look at the aggregate bond etf, the bloomberg index, everyone uses this, it has failed to keep up with inflation over the past 10 years. even worse, in 2022 when the stock market was down 19% it was down 13%. it did nothing to help offset the stock losses. there is real trust issues with the typical ag index that would be 60-40. this has created an opening for manufactured option-based etf's at $50 billion. we are getting more optimistic about this category the more that we look into the failure of

the aggregate bond index. katie: i'm so glad that we are talking. number one because we are buddies and number two because yesterday having this conversation when you think about these buffer etf's and you have 100% downside protected buffer etf's in the market with a 5% upside cap, the question that i was wondering about is where do you put this in your portfolio? is this your equity allocation, your bond allocation? it sounds like you are making the case that this is fixed income replacement? eric: probably a better replacement for fixed income. a lot don't want to sell their allocation because of capital gains, but bonds have been down so this would be a place to replace that. you could replay some of your equity if you want to downside protection. this would do it. generally speaking, i just think that as the market has been up for folder sixfold for the last -- has been up come you can

argue that investors are nervous and having a diversified portfolio is the same outcome, but the peace of mind is much better when it comes to these etf's you get. psychologically, these are powerful instruments for an older investor, nervous boomers. we are very optimistic on this category. katie: you coined the term boomer candy. have a great weekend and tune into eric and myself every monday on etf iq. it is a lot of fun. let's take a quick check on the markets come the s&p 500, we got economic data over the past two hours and you can see the s&p 500 is building on its momentum up about .5%. the same thing at the nasdaq 100 up about .6%. the bond gains have flipped to losses. 10 year are little higher at the

moment.coming up, we have the former republican presidential candidate joining bloomberg technology next. that does it for "bloomberg markets." i am katie greifeld and this is bloomberg. ♪

life's daily battles are not meant to be fought alone. - we're not powerless. so long as we don't lose sight of what's important. don't be afraid to seize that moment to talk to your friends. - cloud, you okay? because checking in on a friend can create a safe space. - the first step on our new journey. you coming? reach out to a friend about their mental health. seize the awkward. it's totally worth it. life's daily battles are not meant to be fought alone.

- we're not powerless. so long as we don't lose sight of what's important. don't be afraid to seize that moment to talk to your friends. - cloud, you okay? because checking in on a friend can create a safe space. - the first step on our new journey. you coming? reach out to a friend about their mental health. seize the awkward. it's totally worth it.

>> from the heart of where money and power combine in silicon valley and beyond, this is bloomberg technology, with caroline hyde and dan ludlow. ed: i'm ed ludlow in san francisco. caroline hyde is off. coming up, we have full coverage of the first presidential debate and discuss the state of crypto with the former republican presidential