>> good morning. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." and these are the stories that set your agenda. asia stocks rise ahead of this

week's jackson hole gathering. israel and hamas trade blame for a cease-fire deal. antony blinken presses for agreement meeting benjamin netanyahu later today. and the international atomic energy agency awards -- warns safety is worsening. >> and a very good morning and welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." . we are off to the mountains of

wyoming. we expect some fed speak from jerome powell on friday but not the clarity that traders would like to see when it comes to the size of a potential rate cut in september. we would like to know if it will be 50 or 25 basis points but perhaps there traders will have to be satisfied with a signal that a cut is coming. august jobs report will give us more information about the size of the cup but we will also hear from andrew bailey and philip lane on saturday. in the meantime week have the fomc minutes for july on wednesday as well as the housing demand and weekly jobless claims futures pointing higher for euro stoxx 50 futures. lower for the ftse 100 but broadly flat to the upside stateside. last week was the stocks best week rally since october 2022 which means at the moment good news is good news again because of the hopes of a soft landing

being rekindled. goodman cutting the risk of recession to 20%. cross asset picture -- the 10 your u.s. treasury yield steady at 3.8%. the yen, trading at 146 per dollar jumping 1% amid a broad weakness in the u.s. currency. looking at gold flirting with an all-time high on hopes of it fed cut -- of a fed cut. and traders monitor the developments in the middle east and ukraine where we await the gaza cease-fire and a potential iran retaliation and given it is a lean week for data you could see geopolitics dominating sentiment. that's get to asia where avril hong can give us more information on the yen move. avril: we are seeing asia stocks

gauge extending the gains from friday. this is helped along by those surge we are seeing amongst some of the chinese tech names. there is more risk on and more appetite for such assets as the recession fears ease. we see the weakness in the dollar polling the hang seng along with it and the outliers among japanese equities as the yen rebounds. the nikkei started the day pretty flat and then the losses accelerated as the session progresses. take a look at what we are seeing in terms of fx. coming into this week we were seeing the japanese bond traders becoming more cautious because at the end of the week we have data on japan inflation coming out and it could reinforce a potentially hawkish stance from the governor. it is keeping the bond traders cautious. yields are creeping up narrowing

the yield differentials which is fueling what you see on the dollar-yen moves. we are seeing at the lowest level in about two weeks as the yen moved about 1% and the session and the selling of the dollar is helping other asia em currencies. look at what we are seeing in terms of positioning from hedge funds. for the first time in 3.5 years they are turning bullish on the japanese currency. something to consider as we keep and for the boj and jackson hole this week. lizzie: avril hong, thank you. let's continue their preview of the jackson hole meeting. traders looking for fresh clues on the federal bank thinking. tirone powell expected to confirm that a cut is on for september. -- jerome powell expected to confirm that a cut is on for september.

mark: not in use a job for the chairman. yes to thread the needle and satisfy the immediate demands, make a clear there will be a rate cut in september probably of 25 basis points and yet somehow he doesn't want to encourage them too much about the number of rate cuts priced into the market for the next year and a half or so. if you look at the derivative curve traders are pricing integrate cuts at every meeting -- are pricing in rate cuts at every meeting. that is not a comfortable position at all. they certainly don't want to endorse raise cut -- rate cuts for too long but they don't want to cause a stir in the market. so much money has been priced into the treasury curve and derivative curves. the risk of causing a just russian in the market by not doing something at all would be

too much. they are far too sensible to do that. it is a very fine game where mr. powell has to try to satisfy the immediate market concerns while at the same time try to modify expectations a little bit that he wants to see more data without committing to another 100 basis points of rate cuts. probably one more after september this year but he will try to keep it open ended and he will be hoping that will be enough to not cause a big fracture. >> a difficult balancing act when it comes to the comments for jay powell at jackson hole. goldman changing expectations of a rest session out of the u.s. the risks more broadly changing after the data last week. i wonder what investors will be watching in the near-term putting jackson hole aside. mark: i don't think traders are rethinking too much about these recession projections. they are taking it with a pinch of salt. the last two weeks goldman sachs

has gone from 15% to 20% up to 25% and now back to 20%. jp morgan looking at 35%. i'm sure there are several other economists looking for equally high numbers. traders themselves will discount most of that. they will look at the actual data. the biggest factor for traders is the u.s. unemployment reports. that is the thing that has deteriorated and changed the most. the u.s. jobs number jumped to 4.3 percent. we have one more report in the first week of september before the fed sits down and that will be the biggest report for bond traders, currency traders and equity traders. it is a bit early for forecast but several think it will come down to 4.2. the fed will be relieved of that is the outcome because that would say just a soft landing is still in place. if we get a jump to 4.3 or

higher, people will say there is a risk of a hard landing and u.s. and that 50 basis points will have to go back on the table. whatever else comes out in the next few weeks, the jobs report in the first week of september is william will -- is way more important. >> h-mart cranfield, the emblem -- the mliv strategist with their preview of what traders will be watching. and one is the geopolitical situation in the middle east. israel and hamas blaming each other for impeding a cease-fire as antony blinken arrived in tel aviv to press for that agreement. he is on his ninth visit to the region since the war broke out last october. he will meet with israel officials before traveling to egypt. dan, what are the sticking points in the cease-fire talks? we keep waiting for a deal. dan: to judge from a hamas

statement issued last night, flat bang in the middle of what was meant to be a pivotal meeting at the end of last week and doha as well as in cairo. it would appear from the hamas statement that we are at square one. most immediate sticking points cited by both sides are over the fates of two strategic corridors in the gaza strip. israel wants to keep its troops there to prevent arms smuggling tahoe mosque and to prevent hamas from moving to the northern gaza strip while hamas once a total withdrawal of israeli troops. this points to a deeper dispute. a dispute that has been with these talks from the outset and that is the end game. a cease fire by definition is temporary.

hamas wants the cease-fire to be the end of the israel offensive against it and it wants it to be the beginning of the recovery of the gaza strip with hamas in charge. the americans are sending their top diplomat out here which is evidence that the americans and the intermediaries are reading off the same page as they try to push the sides toward a deal that will wind this down before it hits the 11 month mark. >> you have had cross-border fire between the israel defense forces and hezbollah intensifying. you have had total blackout in lebanon. can you bring us up-to-date today on israel's northern border? >> the blackout would appear to be tied to the economic situation in that country.

there have been power cuts before it. it certainly contributes to lebanese concerned over what appears to be an escalation in the south between hezbollah and israel. the region has been bracing for a threatened to hezbollah escalation. since those countries blame israel for a back to back as fascination of top militants in beirut and tehran. what we see now is a drum roll of exchanges of fire between israel and hezbollah. these would appear to be within the unwritten rules of engagement between those two meaning not as far north as beirut or as far south as haifa in israel. all it takes is a major strike that inflicts more casualties

than intended, perhaps a rocket overshooting that could tip the region into further escalation. >> dan williams and tel aviv, thank you for the update as we continue to monitor the situation and middle east. brent trading just shy of $80 a barrel. $79 45. we have plenty else on the docket this week. it is not just geopolitics. it is not just jackson hole. today the democratic national convention kicking off in chicago. we have kamala harris' economic plan out on friday. a chance for her to boost her momentum and open up the pole gap over donald trump. on tuesday we have china's loan crime rate with the expectation that lenders -- after cuts in july and on friday, wyoming. get your cowboy hat. all of that previewed in the

daybreak newsletter this morning and today they are focusing on jackson hole and the stock picture building up to it. they have the fed's mary daly saying she has more confidence that inflation is under control. they also have the latest on the gaza cease-fire talks as we were discussing with dan williams. get a cup of coffee and tune into the newsletter. go to da wiping go. coming up next, warnings over safety at a russian occupied nuclear plant. this as kyiv continues its incursion into kursk. we bring you all of the latest. this is bloerg. ♪

lizzie: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." african countries are struggling to secure enough money to fight the mpox outbreak in the democrat -- democratic republic of congo. they believe $4 billion is needed to stop the spread of the disease. the vaccine alliance has only pledged about $500 million so far. the congolese government has recorded more than 550 deaths.

in other news, britain's prospective homebuyers stepped up their search for property over the bank of england's first reduction of rates. a state agent has seen a 19% jump in people contacting them about home sales this month. companies stepped up advertising per jobs for the first time this year in a sign of strength of the u.k. labour leader. vacancies rose 1.1% in july. the job-search site saying it is the most competitive market for hiring since the country was emerging covid lockdowns and make 2021. elon musk's social media platform x is closing its operations in brazil while keeping the service available. this marks and escalation in its fight with a resilient supreme court judge which is cracking down on fake news and hate speech.

and porsche has agreed to become a shareholder in varta as part of a debt restructuring deal with lenders. another plan -- said to hold 32% after her dissipating in a 60 million euro capital increase. those are some of our top stories around the world. checking in on steel. we have had the world's biggest steel producer sounding the alarm about an industry crisis in china. china is king when it comes to steel. it produces well over half of the world's output. when china wobbles so does the rest of the world. a chair and conditions in the sector -- it was the subject of

a big take on the terminal over the weekend. the china steel margins under pressure. the price of hot rolled steel now turning negative. plenty more on the program for you. we will bring you the latest from the war in ukraine next. stay with us. tomberg. ♪

lizzie: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." the international atomic energy agency says safety at an occupied nuclear power plant is deteriorating after an explosion. for more we bring in bloomberg's tony halpin. is there only clarity on ukraine's objectives here?

>> ukraine and russia have been sparring over this nuclear power plant practically since the beginning of the invasion. it is europe's biggest nuclear plant. there is extreme concern. they have raised the alarm again this time because of the drone attack that took place near the power line. the director of the iaea is calling on all sides to show constraints. -- restraint. lizzie: ukraine says it has destroyed his second russian bridge. i wonder how russia is dealing with this incursion. >> there is a degree of denial. president putin is in azerbaijan acting as if nothing is going on. if you look at state television in russia it focuses on humanitarian aid being provided to people fleeing their homes rather than the fact that the

country is being invaded. the russia difference ministry -- events on the ground contradicts reports. lizzie: they are treating it as a natural disaster rather than an invasion. and germany is no longer going to grant new aid requests for ukraine because its own government is trying to tighten its belt. what will that mean for the conflict? >> it is about additional request for help from germany. germany sang it has continued to provide aid to ukraine. it is the second biggest donor after the u.s. the immediate impact will not be of concern for ukraine. longer-term, they will be worried that when they make requests for military assistance they might not get what they want and that will be a concern that accumulates over time. lizzie: thank you as we continue

to monitor the situation in ukraine. the former u.s. national security adviser john bolton is sang the peace process between israel and hamas is a long way to go. continuing the geopolitical theme, let's hear from him on bloomberg surveillance. >> there is a regional war in the middle east now of iran against israel on five fronts. hamas and the gaza trip -- gaza strip, the houthis and the red sea, that she a militia in iraq and syria -- shia militia in iraq and syria. the question is how do they i'll up one or the other. israel fears hezbollah's arsenal. public estimates are that hezbollah has between 120 and 150,000 missiles.

that would be enough to overwhelm israel's air defenses at least -- it is complicated. it is the fact that the leadership in tehran is determined to destroy the little satan. >> yesterday we heard from donald trump who said -- we are going to be friendly to iran. we are going to be friendly, i hope we are going to be friendly. do you know what's wrong's -- what trump's 2.0 policy is going to look like? >> he has no idea. people that look at the first term and believe it will be the same in the second term are mistaken. it is always possible. donald trump met with then

iran's foreign minister. emmanuel macron -- the attraction to donald trump of making a deal with anybody is hard to quantify. and it could be the same way in the second term. and that is why i think there is a certain amount of pressure on the israelis if they are going to do something, to do it now rather than wait for the uncertainty of the american election. lizzie: the former u.s. national security advisor john bolton. i want to take you to a couple of charts on u.s. politics as we start this week. you have the deviancy taking off in chicago. kamala harris leading donald trump in the polls. you see her blue line overtaking donald trump's red line.

donald trump trying to blame harris for high inflation and also resorting to personal attacks saying she has the lap of a lunatic but that approach rattling some republicans. interesting to watch the fundraising figures. there have been surges with harris and tim walz added to the ticket. can they maintain that momentum in chicago? this being harris' moment to introduce herself to the country. chicago police really ramping up security. there have been fears of the strings on trains and buses. we will preview it next with

lizzie: good morning. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." these are the stories that set your addenda. asia stocks rise ahead of this week's jackson hole gathering where jerome powell is expected to confirm that cuts are in the cards. u.s. secretary of state antony blinken presses friend agreement meeting netanyahu later today. and a turbocharged week for the u.s. presidential raised as kamala harris tors battleground states. donald trump plans a visit to the border in a blitz of rallies. a good morning and welcome to a new week and happy monday. it was good news equaling good news last week for markets. we have another big week coming up. jackson role -- jackson hole is where we are headed where traders hope for clarity on fed cuts when powell speaks on

friday but i daresay they will be disappointed and will have to be satisfied with a signal that the cut is coming. august job reports may give us more clarity as to the size of the cut. we will also hear from andrew bailey on friday at the ecb -- and the ecb's chief economist andrew blame on saturday. we get fresh figures on u.s. housing demand and weekly jobless claims. taking up the week we look at futures pointing lower on both sides of the pond. goldman cutting the risk of a rescission to 20%. will we see the encouragement continuing in the market later today? it doesn't look like it yet but flat on the futures picture. cross assets story -- the 10 year yield lower at 3.8%. the yen trading at 145 per dollar because we have seen it jump 1% amidst this broad

weakness on the greenback. gold flirting with an all-time high on hopes of the fed cuts. brent is shy of $80 a barrel as traders monitor the developments in ukraine and in the middle east. we await a gaza cease-fire deal and we await an iranian retaliation. do we see the geopolitics dominating sentiment given it is a lean week for eco-data out of the u.s. it is not a small week for the politics and we can look ahead to the dnc. we are kicking that off in chicago later today. speaking in pennsylvania over the weekend, kamala harris was not pulling any punches about the battle ahead. >> we know our country is going to be as strong as our willingness to fight for it. and to fight for what we stand or. you know what you stand for, you know what to fight for. lizzie: however, republican

senator lizzie graham was less than impressed. >> she is going to the soviet union playbook to lower prices. she wants to eliminate private health care. she is for reparations. she is for a green new deal. i would make it about policy. a nightmare for harris is to defend her policy choices. lizzie: for more on this let's bring in vonnie quinn. i wonder what the democrats are hoping to achieve this week. we have already shown the pole lead for harris. vonnie: more of the same. it is obvious that when you have the democratic national convention and 50,000 people attend, they will mostly be democrats and mostly register voters. what they would love is if some of the messaging percolated out and convinced some of the unpersuaded voters to get out and vote.

this is why we got the economic policy on friday. at least some of what kamala harris is pledging to do. it is why we have a stellar lineup of guests from joe biden on monday evening the clinton's to the obama's on tuesday evening and then finally harris will take the nomination formally and give the keynote address on thursday. more of that and there is also a lot of events planned around this as well. the harris campaign has pledged $370 million between labor day and election day in advertising spending and it will want to keep that fundraising going. lizzie: what about on the republican side? you heard lindsey graham who has echoed what donald trump has said. stay away from the personal attacks and focus on the policy. do not talk about her laugh and her looks. will this win over voters to the republican ticket?

vonnie: it is hilarious you say that because it is questionable as to whether they will win over voters that are donald trump's voters. it points to something interesting, donald trump doesn't seem to have unify the republican particularly when you contrast that with the democratic party this -- these days. donald trump is complaining about what his aides are telling him while you have lindsey graham saying he has to attacker all policy. he is planning a blitz of interviews and news conferences and swing state visits in order to do just that this week while the dnc is ongoing. it will culminate on thursday when he visits the border, an area that harris is considered to give lily week. the arizona border. donald trump will be there while kamala harris is accepting the nomination. sunday we got word from the new

york times and cnn that the latest polling shows harris leading trump in arizona by five percentage points. within the margin of error but it is directionally significant. we are seeing this in many of the swing states. lizzie: talk to us about the preparation going on in chicago. they have ramped up security. this is not chicago's first rodeo. vonnie: there will be protesters. there have been discussions between protesters and the citi and the police as to how much they can protest and where they can protest and what they can have at their disposal including a stage. pro-palestinian supporters for the most part. they are planning to demonstrate outside the israeli consulate on tuesday night. there is a huge march planned as well. chicago is prepared to. it has a past with the vietnam

protests and in 2020 the george floyd murder protest. the police chief has said he will not take any disruptive behavior. there are going to be extra police on the ground in chicago. many of them will have been at the rnc. and chicago will continue on. some kids are not going to go back to school until after the dnc. they have put off the date of the beginning of the school year because there will be so many people the sending chicago. lizzie: live from washington, vonnie quinn, thank you for the update on the u.s. politics. we will join stephen brown, the deputy chief north american economist at capital economics. he has been listening to kamala harris'economic policy. i wonder what you made of these initial announcements. we heard what would effectively be price controls on groceries. will that add to inflation in the u.s.?

stephen: she did lay out a few different policy proposals on friday. price controls is one of the more minor ones. it would -- she would have a tough time getting that through congress. it is one of those policy that is hard to implement. if we think about inflation data at the moment, it is showing there is a food crisis. but prices are not rising and it -- at a strong pace. it sounds good on the circuit. lizzie: you have had this policy of giving first-time buyers $25,000 of down payment support. do you think that will inflate house prices? stephen: this is one policy we have seen around the world.

if you have supply constraints, it is tempting for politicians to think, how can we improve demand for those unable to buy a house? but after a couple of years, the prices go up to reflect the policy proposals. i think that part of her policies would not be a great thing in isolation but she does seem to be trying to pair that with an aim of tilting 5 million homes or maybe 3 million but a lot more homes than what the u.s. is currently building. there does seem to be an acknowledgment that you can't help the housing problem -- lizzie: in the background we have had a raft of u.s. economic data. recession fears seeming to ebb away somewhat. is a strong economy bad news for

donald trump? stephen: this is a mixed one for us. at the start of the year the economy was proving resilient. joe biden got very little credit. you have to ask yourself, if the economy did deteriorate, would that affect the incumbent? a key point for us is we are in the middle of august now. is the economy going to deteriorate that badly in a couple of months that it would have a huge effect on voters? maybe not at this stage. there is a debate in september and then a couple more months of campaigning. the border may matter more for swing voters. lizzie: as we look ahead to

jackson hole given the state of the economy, do you think 50 basis points is off the table? stephen: our view is it is 25 basis points and september. even with the july employment report, you are looking at that robe report and we could see there was -- you are looking at that report and we could see reverses. and since we have had more encouraging data such as retail sales data. and fed officials are voicing concern about the labor market. they are not voicing enough concerns to make us think they will take a rapid approach. the problem with a 50 basis quote -- basis point cut in september -- right now, that is not what the fed will want to see priced in

especially considering how the equity market has recovered from the low from a couple of weeks ago. lizzie: jackson hole is a big opportunity to discuss the broader questions of monetary policy. do you think the inflation target should be higher? you think they should change the target to a range? stephen: the problem with raising the target is you can't raise the target until you have met the original target or you will lose all credibility. i think raising the target is not the best idea. historically, targets are considered to be symmetrical. it is going to be more lenience to the upside and if you raise the target 3% or 4%, the lenience goes away. there is something to be said for a target range.

we have seen it in other countries. such as canada. it gives policymakers that flexibility to say, we know we are not at 2% inflation yet but we are now below 3% and are heading in the right direction. we can put more emphasis on the labor market and maybe cut a couple of meetings before erasing volatility. i think that is one potential fix they could do. but for now, that will probably be a discussion for next year rather than this year. lizzie: maybe we will save the questions. we are getting a raft of earnings when it comes to the u.s. consumer web target, macy's . what is your rating of the strength of the u.s. consumer? stephen: so far we have seen

some concerning signs. delinquency rates have picked up sharply. and the labor market shows people are having a tougher time finding a job. that being said, it is not clear if that is yet feeding through the weaker spending. the report last week was quite strong. even within the lower income segment, who might be hit hardest, that has not fed through to weaker spending. our sense is that consumer spending growth will slow further in the second half of the year in response to a recent loss of momentum that we have seen in some of the economic indicators. but our best case is that we are

still heading towards a soft landing. lizzie: an optimistic note to end on. stephen brown from capital economics. always great to have you on the program. for more on the race to the white house, we will speak to the former u.s. diplomat brett bruen about some of the tough challenges facing the candidates. he is going to be joining us at 8:30 a.m. london time. coming up, what to watch from the fed's annual meeting at jackson hole. we will speak to isabel alber and from close asset management. stay with us for that conversation. this is bloomberg. ♪

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investors are turning to the fed's annual gathering this week to see how recent data on the u.s. economy is going to inform the central banks path on interest rates. jerome powell's keynote speech on friday is widely expected to confirm rate cuts. joining us now is isabel albarran. good to have you with me on the program. looking ahead to jackson hole, stephen brown just told us that jay powell can pull off a soft landing. do you agree? isabel: i do and i think we have seen some easing in the u.s. market but it is easing and not a collapse which is why we are still expecting to see steady and stable being the watchwords for the fed. there is still a focus on incremental easing. lizzie: do you think the market pricing per fed cuts beyond september is too aggressive? isabel: it looks somewhat

demanding. we have already seen a big reversal from the surge in cut expectations that we suffer september. i think we might expect to see that echoed further out in the curve. i think it is 200 basis points expected over the next 12 months . given we are not seeing a collapse in economic data, that seems demanding. that being said, the fed has quite a bit of space to do some cutting without making the policy accommodative because rates are pretty high. lizzie: and on the fiscal policy, we had kamala harris' plan dropping on friday. what do you make of it from an investor's standpoint? isabel: i think it is a case of revelation instead of innovation. in total it may perhaps be a

smaller package than expected but it is going further than the biden administration had tried to pass. thinking about where the focus is in terms of total package size, probably for the next decade, about 1.7 trillion, the back of it is on the child tax cut extension. sending a message. in terms of the economic impact, i think that may be more limited. firstly, you have to pay for it so the size of this package is not particularly enormous compared to the numbers we were thinking about beforehand. and you need to be able to pass it. even if we see a democratic sweep, you need senators to vote for some of these policies. and thirdly, you have to implement it. on some of the areas around housing for example, trying to increase the amount of houses built dramatically, reforming planning in a way that makes it

possible is not going to be a slamdunk. the ticket size for the package is smaller and then i think the actual economic impact of that is likely to be a bit more modest again. lizzie: really interesting. parallels with the labour government and the u.k. and its plans to build houses. i wonder about the u.k. economy. we had rough data last week. the economy is growing, benign inflation. does that sound like a healthy economy to you and a good place to put your money? isabel: the outlook for the u.k. has improved and is expected to improve further in the second half of the year. we see the pressure from high inflation beginning to soften and allow the consumer a little more space with their spending. and also looking at measures like the property market, seeing a bit of recovering confidence and recovery in certain buyer sentiment, that should feed through to house prices and

eventually consumer confidence. certainly a slightly better outlook. from a global investors prospective it has been interesting because for the last 2-3 months we have seen more interest in the u.k. the question is to what extent does it relate to the fact that we have seen political turmoil in europe and to what extent is it actually a reflection of beginning to rerate the u.k. from a political risk perspective? i think the labor government will have to do more to improve sentiment in a more sustainable way and also improve the kind of growth path or the u.k. economy for that to happen. lizzie: isabel albarran from close asset management, thank you as we mind the picture and u.k. and the sentiment changing towards u.k. equities. we will get more data that could change the sentiment this week with a raft of european pmi's.

if you look at this next chart come you have the u.k. economy not performing that badly. but eurozone manufacturing pmi's has been pretty soft. u.k. is the red line on that charge. and you can see the aggregates for the regions. if you break those down. they are actually showing that services are holding up but manufacturing is still pretty soft. you can see broadly across the region the comparison between the companies. we have plenty more coming up on the program so do stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

lizzie: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." we were just hearing from isabel albarran. as we start this new week, let's

check in on where they are at. market pricing in 30 basis points of easing and 93 basis points by the end of the year compared to earlier this month when traders were pricing in more than 150 basis points of cuts before the end of the year. we get more commentary out of jackson hole and the eco-data out of the u.s. lien as it may be through the week. you can see the economic data has been soft out of the u.s. labor day that rolling over but signs of strength in the short term out of the u.s. we have futures flat as we head towards the catch open but that does it for me on "bloomberg daybreak: europe." next up you have the opening trade. this is bloomberg. ♪

guy: good morning from london, what you need to