♪ >> this is bloomberg markets. today on bloomberg markets, you're talking about nvidia earnings. the market holding its breath it so much value concentrated in just one stock. but first let's get a check on these markets overall because we course are just off of session lows to on the day. about two tens of 1% lower. bigger drops in the tech heavy, nasdaq 100. now almost 1% lower on the david 910's of 1% lower. reversing earlier gains in the bond market, only about one

basis point lower. movers on the equity side, first we are looking at southwest airlines because elliott investor management increased its state and is advancing for an overhaul. that 10% mark needed for bigger changes, now at 9.7% and southwest is dipping marginally on the day. looking also at boeing because the stock is seen some movement in both directions today. this after nasa announcing over the weekend after not would not return to earth on the troubled starliner orbit. owing now down almost 1% and apple has sent out invitations for its big september event which will take place on september 9. the company will unveil the latest iphones, watches and airpods including update and artificial intelligence products in that apple ecosystem. apple down still about four tens of 1% along with broader technology. markets are still adjusting to jerome powell's remarks friday in jackson hole.

the fed chair seven more data would influence the fed's thinking as it weighs rate cuts in september and beyond. but that is not the whole story and michael mckee is interviewing federal reserve of san francisco president mary daly to see what else might be factoring into the central bank's decision. he joins us now. when you speak with mary daly, what are some of the more critical aspects of what you are looking for given what we now know? >> basically the market that jump ahead of the fed here and now we are pricing in about 100 basis point of cuts by the end of the year. is that realistic? that is a key question for voters on the open market committee of which mary daly is one. also, how fast do they want to get down to whatever they think neutral is? do they cut by 50, by 25? this gift meetings? now it is not a question of whether they cut, it is a question of what the secrets is. >> when you think about the

concerns about the job market in particular, it is really the next pair will report that investors are really looking at to get confirmation of whether things are we getting more than meets the eye. do you think she is just concerned? >> she has shown a growing concern the labor market could be weakening but not week. when you look at the underlying data that we get, there is about an even chance that the economy is too strong or too weak at this point. jobless claims still very low. some of the labor force flows showing more people becoming unemployed. the fed doesn't know, so it is time to cut and maybe put a floor underneath it. the question nobody will be able to answer until it is too late, perhaps, is whether or not they started too late. >> i think about the odd lot episode that estate with richmond fred -- fed president

tom market and the idea that he is still worried about inflation, about where it could go from here. not at this current moment perhaps, but down the road. i think it has been frustrating for a lot of investors. you don't really know what fiscal policies going to look like. you could be significantly looking at a different scenario heading into 2025. how much is inflation still on the minds of different members of the fed? >> it's always on the mind of every minute the fed but some are more worried than others. you look at somebody like cap harker from philadelphia, mary daly has expressed some concerns. jay powell did not about the idea of inflation rising because labor markets are tight. so it's hard to say at this point what is going to happen with inflation but the fed is betting it is going to keep going down. they can't would be do anything

about the political aspect of it, of who is going to be in charge in january and what kind of policies are they going to adopt, so at this point they can only react to what they see and at the moment, as jay powell said, they don't think we are going to see wage pressures pushing inflation higher. >> and look quickly here as well, we are not without economic data this week. it's not the biggest data, but important data nonetheless including consumer sentiment data later in the week. on top of tons of consumer earnings. at the end of the day high with the consumer story really playing into how this economy is going moving forward? >> we are going to get a report on standing at the end of the beacon that will be important because we did see retail sales coming in better-than-expected. we want to see what happens with services and whether americans are still spending at the same rate. that would reassure the fed. it's been a father maybe people would start the pullback, and we will see where we get the consumer confidence numbers tomorrow, whether americans are

thinking this is a good or bad time to buy. also the conference board confidence numbers show what people think of the labor market and that is going to be an important side note for members of the open market committee because they are going to want to know whether people think it is getting too hard to find a job. >> we thank you so very much. that is michael mckee. the sure to tune into bloomberg this afternoon with this interview with san francisco fed president mary daly. exclusively at -- >> p.m. eastern time. in this week, nvidia earnings are looming large. the company has had a historic run-up but investors will be looking to see if the company is reporting continued revenue performance and positive outlook. you can see nvidia data center segment estimated to come in at $25 billion for the quarter and we're going to be joined now by mandeep singh who clutters -- covers global technology. that is really the money number.

what are you expecting relative to consensus and why? >> i mean, there will be a deep related to consensus. look, they've done that for the past six quarters, and even going into this quarter, the question is by how much. the good thing is we have received a couple of data points from all the hyper scalars raising their. those are the things that matter if they want to sell more. the one negative was black getting delayed. in the past when they have moved from one architecture to another , hopper to blackwell, they've only see price increases. the one thing is what kind of a price some are they expecting from the blackwell architecture? >> what are you expecting and how big of a sane is it that you have that kind of delay? >> think about it, these chips

are getting more complex. every generation has cap more transistors, the complexities growing. i'm not surprised there is some delay and from a pricing perspective, yes, it could command a higher price the question for the companies that are using these chips is do they have to rely on the latest chips for their model training, or can they make software improvements? you are a openai or anthropic, do you continue to rely on nvidia to get the latest and greatest chip, or can you make software improvements drive a model improvement? i think the answer is a bit yes they help a lot in terms of speeding up training, but i do expect down the line there will be software improvements and if they that would put some pressure on nvidia. >> seeking a pressure on nvidia, you look at bibles trying to catch up in different businesses. you think about the recent amd acquisition and at the end of the day, nvidia has had a huge run-up in the market. when you think about how these

companies are putting money toward whether it be m&a, whether it be spending, how are investors looking at valuation? are they going to a that capex spending? is it kind of a war of sorts? what are they going to do to stay ahead of that competition with the lead that they already had? >> indicated nvidia it is about a product architecture and maintaining that lead. they already compressed the two-year cycle time to one year and they have been really under shipping demand, that is what we've can see in the data. but from a hyper scaler perspective, they have to show it in their cloud revenue, and for everyone else was investing in these chips, they want the are alive. there have been questions about when the roi will come, but the use are becoming stronger and figure by the day. i think it is just a matter of maintaining medicaid's where you continue to show a recurring revenue stream like the hyper

scalars have done, but from a chip perspective, the only thing they need is the next chip to be bigger and better and to command a higher price than they were commending before. >> it's interesting the implied moves, and you can find this by going to the nvidia ticker on the terminal, the price of implied is 9.4% give or take in either direction after this report. so about 9% typically, nothing out of the ordinary here really. what do you expect in terms of investor sensitivity here? at the same time we've been talking about valuation for a very long time, how sensitive is nvidia right now? >> they just had a 40% round-trip in the past five weeks. the stock dropped it has recovered and that is without a earnings. so clearly the investor base is quite sensitive. a $3 trillion market cap company has, they are the darling stock

when it comes to this. we know this is a long-term trend, a super cycle. it is just a question of managing expectations and so far they have shown that they can eat and raise. i wouldn't be surprised if we see another positive reaction. >> it's very interesting. we were told that nvidia positioning has been alleged to the extreme, and the lack of extreme bullish positioning right now is very telling. thank you so very much. keep an eye out for his coverage, of course does earnings on wednesday are going to be the moment of the leak. next we are going to take a look at retail earnings because retail spending patterns could shed new light on the state of the u.s. economy and of course, a slew of companies this week as well. we are going to talk about that next. stick with us, this is bloomberg. to school when i had time. i went on our website, i spoke to an admissions counselor. we applied right then and there.

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>> this is bloomberg markets. it's time now for the stock of the hour. all eyes on consumer sentiment and margins this week with many company retail earnings were orting this week. we're going to discuss it with emily. and at the end of the day, when you take a look at the sector large, it is doing pretty badly and you have to wonder what point he will get a bid. there are still so many worries about consumer spending weakening. how is the second doing at large? >> is the worst performing s&p 500 sector year today. it is still in positive territory, up about 5%, but it is underperforming the broader market there was a note this morning from gina martin adams and she was pointing out that

actually, the eps expectation, so basically the market assumption of how much we earnings for these companies are going to grow has been trending up since 2023, but the sector is still underperforming. she equates that to investors basically pricing in macro headwinds and concerns about rising unemployment, consumer sentiment kind of coming back a bit, and kind of baking that into the stock prices and putting them lower. >> when you talk to investors than when they are looking at earnings this week, for example, at the macro data, which fund matters more? if you look at the names coming out, we've seen so much divergence. none of these names are going to behave the same, they all have different types of consumers. which matters more at the end of the day? >> like you said, it is for the different when you look across the board. she said that in the post-pandemic environment, the macro does matter more than it has in the past.

the consumer discretionary sector, if you kind of map that out with consumer sentiment, they weren't always aligned and now they've been trending together. consumers are more concerned about higher inflation, higher rates. we will have to see if that changes now if the fed is really going to start cutting rates and whether the fundamentals are going to come back and august more. >> -- focus more. >> even if the fed starts cutting it, maybe you get the 50 basis point the market is saying. there could be a weaker consumer going into next year. at the end of the day, we have a bunch of names reporting this week. what are we expecting to hear from and how closers are investors watching the guidance? >> so we have nordstrom, that will be a big one. also considering that we've already seen consumers getting more discerning in their purchases. walmart, target, they were better than macy's and home depot on the higher end consumer. at least for nordstrom, they said they actually expect a

little bit of a miss. they are looking utterly for traffic data showing the anniversary sale maybe wasn't as popular as before so they are expecting a little bit of a miss. we also have five below which has majorly underperformed today, down about 60%. that will be another when i'm watching and also gap and best buy. >> question about data and best buy, five below is a little bit curious. what has been going on because at name suggests, it should be targeted to people who are spending less. >> right. it had a number of maybe not macro-related issues. their ceo stepped down several months ago. i'm not sure if i can speak to all the details about exactly why we saw that, but that is true that it is supposed to be geared toward the lower income consumer and i think it speaks to that they virgins be a seeing, at some of these companies that you think would be doing well are actually still underperforming. >> thank you so much.

a highly want consumer sector that is certainly one of the biggest stories of the week between consumer earnings and nvidia. we are set to round out this earnings season with a bang. coming up, we are going to talk to arielle investments. but boardrooms across a broader set of companies are actually less diverse. we are going to talk to arielle patrick up next. this is bloomberg. the best ai assistant isn't one that knows the whole world. it's one that knows your world. a custom assistant, built on watsonx with ibm's granite models, can leverage your trusted data,

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study is ariel patrick, chief communications officer of arielle investments. i want to talk about the numbers first because it's interesting. the numbers across small and mid-caps in particular were particularly concerning when you consider how many people across the country small businesses employ. so when you see the broader numbers, why are the broader numbers actually showing a lack virus? -- a lack of progress? >> i would say it is less about lack of progress and is slowing of progress. it is fair to say that after the murder of george floyd in 2020 there was an acceleration of efforts, particularly around the recruitment of diverse words of directors, but since that huge jump took place, we are just seeing a little bit of a slump. and i think a big part of that is around the operational infrastructure that is behind the ei initiatives and who is accountable for moving the forward within these

organizations. less so a focus on prioritizing it. you are seeing a lot of headlines saying corporate america is walking away from ddi. we are actually finding that is not true. 98% of respondents report that dei remains not only a primary agenda item, but that the rest of that group said that it was added even in the past couple years. so the question is how do you effectively take it forward, and we learned a lot in our research , which just look at fortune 500 directors. so we are not really looking at small caps necessarily. most of the directors that we are pulling are at the nation's most influential companies. >> at the end of the day, very curious about your commentary here and when were finding when you speak these directors as well about the backlash against eei policies -- dei policies and more recent years. first, there with his big push

after the murder of george floyd. then in the past year, you seeing a lot of pushback for some of these policies. how does corporate america navigate that? >> a few things. it is fair to say that like any business imperative, going to say that dei's primary on your agenda, you have to back it up with measurement, accountability, tracking, reporting, incentives with leadership education from the rank-and-file and why it is important. it's almost like saying that ddi is solely on the chief diversity officer in the way that financial goals for a company would only be on the cfo. that doesn't make sense. it is something that everyone across procurement, human capital, product and philanthropy have to be before, and so i think we are seeing a need for an upper-level in the conversation ended did more sophistication in how that role is treated and how these executives are able to navigate these organizations and the

expertise that they are expected to bring. >> where does this fall on the priority list? i think that this is a very important question that you are in the show in a data-driven way. >> what is fascinating is we not only pulled fortune 500 directors, we also compare that to the average worker. they are each saying different things. board members believe 90% are saying it a primary agenda item and the reason they are focused on it is improving the experience of diverse employees as well as their constituents that touch the organization that are diverse. fewer than half of workers believe that their leadership believes that dei is important and when asked why, the most popular responses were public relations and political concerns. they are far more skeptical and think it is more of a short-lived effort as opposed to a genuine altruistic effort. and i think that showed that

there is a vast misalignment and a need for education. >> i do want to get your opinion on another part of your life year. i know you've done some work recently with the seneca project and also you've had recent polling numbers and data here around kamala harris fundraising. and a lot of it coming from women, in particular. why are women being more galvanized particularly to give to this campaign? >> i am very grateful to kristian mcguire who asked me to help host a zoom education, i will say that reproductive rights are top of the agenda for women right now and that is the unifying factor new matter where you sit which is why the seneca project is a big organization doing great work. >> thank you so much. certainly talking about a very important study coming out from the firm as well as a little bit about a harris campaign. that does it for bloomberg markets today. keep an eye on markets through the close. this is bloomberg.

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>> from the world of politics to the world of investments, this is "balance of power." live from washington, d.c. >> kamala harris campaign

crosses the half $1 billion fundraising mark. i'm kailey leinz flying solo today. the dnc proving to be quite a money hauling event for harris as she brought in $82 million. we will have the latest on the money race and the race overall plus our political panel this hour. we will keep an eye on the middle east after israel launched preliminary strikes over the weekend. whether or not that was in escalatory or deescalate tour he moved. there's a lot of hype. we start with a check on the market. amy: thank you. albertsons finally getting their day in court nearly two years after the merger was announced.