>> welcome to bloomberg markets. the stock market falling on the first trading day of a seasonal y weak month. here is the s&p 500 losing as much as 1.6% around session loads the biggest drop since the set off august 5. tech companies are leading the way with the nasdaq 100 down two point 3%. six of the mac seven names. also, copper, lots of red. across risk assets and commodities. copper in london off by more than 2%. goldman sachs slashing the price target on metal by almost

$5,000. the reason is less demand from china. oil in extending recent weakness with brent crude fallen below $75 per barrel now $74 per barrel touching the lowest since december 2020 three. let's go back to equities and put the weakness we are seeing now into context. abigail: it's not just today in terms of september is it that are bad it a septembers overall the last five years on a monthly basis, most months for the s&p 500 are higher but february's are one exception down 1.7% overall. march is not great. may down slightly. september down 4.2% on an average basis over the last five years. past the last five years there is black monday. actually, that was august. but many many other september is very painful whether 2018, 2015, 2011. tough time. we start with that line of

thought. the vix is going backwards. you have the spot vic's above the vic's curve and that is still true. it should be the vix year for the vix spot vix is 18.9 for the october contract. 15-18. investors are nervous around election time, october, november, and just out of the election with extra headroom or outright bearish bets. on top these are the worst percentage movers for the s&p 500. bowing down 7.8%. there were downgraded by wells fargo. analysts highlighting the fact cash opportunities are out the door. free cash flow according to this

analyst will peak in 2027. you must really be an axe on the stock because another analyst could say it and it would move that much. but there has been bad news for boeing for the last five years. constellation energy down 7.8 percent. oil towards 70, the bottom of the range over the last few years. down 2.2%. a drag on the markets. the big one is nvidia. down 7.8%. over the last of four days since they were part stock down 12% the west four days going back to 2022. while that water was good and the guide was good, it was not the blowout. the first stock that entered at that report had been up 150%, too far, too fast. you had the yen strengthening, all these headwinds, investors selling shares. technically it may go back below $100 per share. s investors -- scarlet:

investors pushed the stock up expecting the best of everything i did not quite get that. a raft of economic data due this week. u.s. manufacturing activity shrunk for a fifth month. evercore's isi julian emanuel saying a variety of factors are shaping the perception of the headline. julian: when you look at manufacturing it has been weekend for the better part of a year now. part of the benefit of china not growing as expected has been the cap on commodity prices. it's a significant tailwind for risk assets in general, to a point. and again, there is an expectation that you won't tip over because of china weakness. we have seen that in the past. it's part of where the fed's

calculus comes into play. scarlet: stuart paul from bloomberg economics. stocks opened lower today. we saw indexes take another leg lower at 10:00 a.m. when ism manufacturing numbers came out. does this report revive growth scare concerns? stewart: it might. there is a bit of a disinflationary impulse hiding in the details of the report. much of the uptick was driven by increased inventory and improved supply chains. that should help alleviate pipeline price pressures and create a disinflationary impulse. this will be something the fed keeps in mind would meet later in the month. scarlet: disinflation is good for markets even though this was a negative economic report overall. manufacturing into deeper construction, five straight months below 50. how often does a manufacturing recession spill into the broader economy? stuart: it's typically

indicative of broader economic activity, not necessarily the case that a contraction in manufacturing spills into the economy. manufacturing comprises 10 percent of total gdp, a little higher in some select, smaller states. when you see weakness in consumer demand, demand for finished products. that is indicative of what is going on in terms of broader consumption growth. when you see consumption growth approaching zero that is when you start entering the real recession risk phase. scarlet: julian emanuel mentioned a link to china. how does china play into the manufacturing numbers if at all? stuart: there are both u.s. manufacturers and chinese manufacturers competing for input prices despite the fact there is slowdown globally. in the u.s. in manufacturing, we have seen at least in the august data and upside surprise in the price is paid in raw materials. again, this is august data. we have to think on a forward-looking basis. the thing that probably matters most in a global context, and

come across borders, is we see domestic demand weakness. looking forward, we should see some disinflation, some weakening pipeline price pressure. scarlet: you do see evidence companies are holding off on spending, whether it is on hiring or restocking inventory, because of the upcoming election. is that a component here we need to think about? stuart: election uncertainty as part of it. part of it is weakness in consumer outlook and weakness in demand. firms are reporting they are allowing for declining headcount both through attrition and they are starting to lay off workers, specifically in manufacturing. we saw a reduction in both headcount and hours worked in durables and nondurable's manufacturing. in july. we expect the thing in august. when we think of the jobs report due later this week this is something that should contribute to what we think will be a relatively weak august pharaoh. scarlet: jobs friday is the

focal point. we have a number of jobs related reports coming out. jolts tomorrow, challenger job cuts, and 80 p thursday. what movement have you seen on the non-foreign payrolls numbers from economists? have estimates held steady? stuart: some estimates have came in. the estimate for job openings came in notably. marking job openings for july, jolts data that is typically delayed, marking job openings for july at 8.2 million, basically steady. non-foreign payrolls numbers. most of them have been coming in about 177 as an early estimate and are starting to fall closer to 100 50,000, one hundred 45,000 jobs added in august. unemployment forecast pretty much steady around 4.2. some folks are starting to get more worried and marking up the unemployment rate forecast for august about 4.3%.

scarlet: fascinating. thank you for the insight into what to expect this week. coming up on bloomberg markets, directv and disney battling for a new agreement after customer suddenly lost disney programming including abc and espn over the weekend. that's coming up. this is bloomberg. this is bloomberg. ♪ [suspenseful music]

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scarlet: this is bloomberg markets. i'm scarlet fu. our stock of the hour is disney. tears are falling. it was down as much as 1.1% but has come back a little bit we had a contract dispute over the weekend led directv customer surveys access to espn, abc, and

other directv -- other disney programming. chris palmeri has been covering this and joins us live from los angeles. chris, the timing of the dispute is no accident. it's at the start of the timber when football season begins, college football and nfl. disney has a history of getting into contract disputes around this time of the year, doesn't it? chris: one year ago they got in a big fight with the charter now the number one cable company with a similar thing about renewable abc and espn. at this time it's directv the third largest, 11 million customers across the u.s.. and right at the start of football season, the end of the u.s. open if you are a fan of that as well. they lost their channels. scarlet: the idea is that they have more leverage because this is when consumers really want to be watching programming. what is the usual course of action here and our events leading up to follow the usual script? chris: yes and no.

yes in the sense that they are all yelling that this is an outrage. no compromise here. that in the end they compromise. directv had a call this morning for analysts. they said does this mean you will cave before monday night football next week? the cfo said no, this is an existential fight for us over the future of our business. they don't just want better rates and to have to pay for fewer subscribers, they want the flexibility to offer packages that are sort of like streaming services. there could be one just for kids and family programming, one for news junkies, one for sports, one for general entertainment. to have the ability to take their channels and put them together and offer them at lower prices to consumers. scarlet: so the idea is people that don't want to watch sports don't have to pay for it. is disney receptive to any of these smaller packages, smaller

bundles? chris: partly. they did offer, for example, a smaller sports package. but, directv said there were other terms added to that that they did not get into specific self. but it just made it unusable for them. to put this in context, directv said they played -- paid disney about $2 billion per year. in subscriber fees going directly to disney for out of the channels, espn, disney channel, abc. scarlet: to fund all of those expensive live sports rights which disney, espn has no choice but to bid because that's its reason for being. for espn a lot of it comes down to what happens with this part of the disney empire and how it manages the cord cutting ongoing consistently. even as it brings in a lot of cash flow. the president of espn jimmy

poterba recently laid out his strategy. is there anything new to it? was there anything you did not already know? chris: it's evolving. next year they will launch a standalone version of espn for streaming. this season they have this tool where you can find out where any game is on whether it is an espn platform or another network. they are making a big push into sports betting this year with espn bet integrating all caps to get data for betting. they are making a lot of changes in the business. directv is basically encouraging people to leave the traditional tv package with all these features they can get online directly. and, at the same time, they are starving, in a way, the traditional tv customer, not so much in sports, because, all of the big games are on espn, but,

in terms of the entertainment channels. so much goes direct to the streaming services. scarlet: chris, any update on venue, at the sports streaming disney was planning to launch with fox and warner bros. discovery? i judge halted the launch. -- i know a judge halted to launch. our other steps being articulated? chris: fox, warner bros., and disney say they will continue to fight this. they did not think the judge was fair in the decision. in this case, directv seems to be fighting for their own version of venue. scarlet: chris palmeri, thank you so much. now let's turn to market makers. two of the biggest. citadel securities and jane street, both on track for record annual revenue. at ken griffin citadel securities, first-half net trading revenue rose 81% in just

over $5 billion from the same period one year ago. at jane street net trading gained a similar amount. let's bring in katherine doherty. citadel securities, jane street, they aren't publicly traded companies. they aren't obligated to disclose these numbers, right? catherine: yes. but they do have debt and credit investors are getting their results, getting updates. it does not have to be on such a strict schedule if you were a public company having to disclose telling investors when you will disclose. recently we have heard from jane street and citadel securities in the debt market where the numbers are coming from getting updates to investors to provide color on why they are seeing a record jump or the potential to reach a record for 2024, citing both the volume in the equities and credit market. for jane street in particular

they recently took out a loan in the market. that's why they are coming to credit investors saying they are able to invest using that money that they got from the credit market to, essentially, help just not only continue the momentum, but, to set a path that will potentially see growth that starts to compete with major u.s. banks. scarlet: i'm glad you are going there. to what extent are they taking market share from major u.s. banks? or, are they creating opportunities for themselves by offering expertise, access to niche parts of the market? katherine: it's two things. one, the pie is getting bigger. they are into this space competing with big u.s. banks. because the pie is bigger they are able to take market share. it's not necessarily that it has to be at the expense of the bank. but, in the future, we will start to track to see whether

the market share pulls back in a significant way from some of the big public u.s. trading firms. and, if the market makers are providing the expertise you allude to, that's in the form of their technology. it is able to provide better pricing, tight pricing. and also there people that they are taking from, sometimes, the u.s. banks. other times, they are coming from hedge funds. they are providing expertise in the form of fixed income. and equities trading for jane street. they are very dominant in the etf trading space. there -- the people and technology is their bread and butter and where they are putting money so they cannot not just maintain this growth, but really, accelerate into the future. scarlet: what is the trajectory of their growth? if you were to plot it over time

would it be gradual or has it suddenly gone higher? katherine: last year across the market not just with market makers you saw a pullback of trading. 2022 and 2021 were both record halls. 2024 is likely to kind of be a continued or renewed momentum that we have seen at the u.s. banks. and now that we are seeing with market-making firms. but, there jump, the 81%, the 78% compared to one year ago that we are citing in our reporting at citadel, securities, and jane street, that's a monumental jump when you compare it to the u.s. banks that are still growing, but not at that over 50% rate. scarlet: much more moderate. thank you, as always, bloomberg's katherine doherty. coming up from one of china's biggest internet company securing a big endorsement from the country's antitrust watchdog. stay tuned for my conversation

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scarlet: chinese e-commerce giant alibaba overcoming a regulatory hurdle. beijing's antitrust watchdog agency. the company of monopolistic behavior after a probe into its online behavior. for more, kuo zhang joins us. what does this endorsement mean for your business, the b business of alibaba -- the b2b business of alibaba? kuo: we are focusing on b2b. b2b is a big business.

with the penetration we are seeing single-digit. we are the top platform. if you want to start you own brand. but we give you examples. scarlet: i want to talk about the overall economic backdrop here too. it's important to see alibaba of representing what a lot of companies in china are struggling with, the post-covid slow down, consumers not spending as much as they used to. what's the growth story? where well growth come from? cooper bob we are kuo: alibaba buzzfeed to be partner --

alibaba was b2b partner. you can see from the global business, the global business is growing fast. we are using all kinds of technology to enable that. second, we see a lot of customers going global. not only from china, but all over the world. we see many areas. 30% or 40% of growth from the new customer perspective. scarlet: kuo zhang is president of alibaba.com speaking to us from las vegas. as we had to break, a quick mention of u.s. equity index is at session lows with the russell

2000 declining by 2.7%. the s&p 500 as a whole in a 1.6% whole. this is bloomberg. with so much entertainment out there wouldn't it be great... ...if you could find what you want, all in one place? show me paris. xfinity internet customers can enjoy the ultimate entertainment experience and save on some of the biggest names in streaming, all for just $15 a month. get the fastest connection to paris with xfinity.

from the world of politics to the world of business this is a balance of power. live from washington, d.c..

>> the final stretch. the fastest show in politics. with two months until the election and one week to the first debate between kamala harris and donald trump. i'm joe matthews alongside kailey leinz in washington, d.c. welcoming global television and radio audiences worldwide. it's great to see you after almost two weeks. you managed to hold down the fort. thank you. counting down to the debate one week from tonight. you and i will be here for a light one, happening against the backdrop of a tenuous moment in israel that has dogged joe biden and progressive democrats for month. kailey: kamala harris addressed this issue on stage in chicago at the dnc last month. of course, this is putting a fresh spotlight on the ongoing effort towards a cease-fire more specifically a hostage deal after six hostages being held by hamas were