>> welcome to "bloomberg markets ." i'm vonnie quinn. donald trump do to speak moments from now the economic club of new york, where his detailed economic -- where he will detail his economic platform and answer questions. we will bring you that live. we are at session lows for the indices. interesting to note the will waited s&p is down more, treading ever so slightly lower after a tough week with fewer components of the stocks higher and the stocks index being lower on the session with just about three stocks inbound from bank

of america saying the pullback has creating an enhanced buying opportunity. if you look at the two-year yield and the 10-year yield over the last day, it's been quite the hallelujah moment. we saw a dissenter version, but what does that mean? right now we are at 375 on the two-year, just barely pimping at lower on the 10 year. let's get straight to a discussion now about the treasury market and what it is telling us about the yield curve with the global head of fixed income. in a sense, this has been but we have been dreading and waiting for, the distant version of the yield curve. are we heading for disincentive for definite or is it something different this time? >> if you are right, the tides are turning, but the change in the yield curve tells you something simple, now is the

time that the front-end is going to start coming down. there has been a lot of discussion over the last couple of years over how the inversion of the yield curve would be resolved. one end moving up or a variety of other factors? looking through cycles over time, it's when the fed starts cutting in earnest that you start to see that this inversion. why is that happening? right mostly for good reasons. inflation has come significantly down. it was creeping around the 9% level, second quarter it was a 1% annualized rate. that's a very different backdrop. on the other hand, labor market is just starting to rear its head is a concern. the fed has not had to worry about the labor market for quite some time, but we heard from chair powell at jackson hole that that is starting to change. now it's lower inflation that the yield curve is this inverting, but we have got to keep an eye on, in the future,

does the labor market deteriorate to the point with the fed has to move not just to a normal long run interest rate, but a more accommodative interest rate. vonnie: just this morning with adp data saw more weakening in the labor market, but with services data we saw expansion of the labor market and adp wasn't terrible, so it seemed to be just the right amount of weakening. what does that mean for the debate? is the market clamoring for a 50 basis point cut that we will see disappointment in, may be bewilderment, if we get only 25? >> there could be a little bit of volatility around the first move. even the first one on the way up was only 25 basis points, even though it accelerated after that. i think the size of the move in

september is not the most important thing. we have to look at what the market is pricing in, simply that over the next 12 months, the fed gets down to that neutral rate, the 3% rate and the market over the next 90 days is pricing on average 25 basis points per meeting. that's reasonable and it leaves a bond investors on the upside of the fed needs to cut in response to a weaker market. vonnie: that would be nice, but it seems we might get volatility between now and then and yes, in total there might be some 25 basis points spread out over nine meetings, but we are going to see for sure a decision on 50 at some point this year unless the market re-prices significantly, repricing 100 basis points for the rest of the year. post payroll tomorrow, if the market trades higher in price, are you a buyer, seller, or doing nothing?

gene: the weaker labor market is driving that. the opportunity has stayed long or will get long if investors are not already positioned that way. 25 basis points a nice convenient forecast from the market or the fed. to do that consistently for a year with an easing cycle would be unusual and unprecedented. typically the fed is using larger increments in response to a shock in demand. the shock and demand could come from a weaker labor market, if we see evidence of that tomorrow. vonnie: the other thing going into this is oil prices, right? even with the extension we have wti trading below 70 dollars per barrel today, brent above $73 per barrel. does that give us any ideas around global demand that might feedback to the united states?

gene: looking at commodities or tips markets, demand is a concern globally on the industrial side as we look at the readings globally where they are still positive and have returned from a more robust level from a couple of years ago to a very calm pre-covid level, maybe a 2% growth rate in the u.s., for instance, with evidence of potential additional slowing and commodity markets giving an amber signal at this point that perhaps inflation and demand are lower than what the market thinks, if only we look at the last couple of gdp prints. vonnie: that'll next move being lower for two, where will we end the year and will it be positive by the end of the year? gene: the yield curve will move towards where the fed is moving, so we will slowly see it move towards that level and that will

give it an opportunity to steepen, and to the extent that the fed realizes that greater than expected shock and demand, which we haven't yet seen but if we do, it takes the front-end into below 3%. in the near term there's reason to be excited and the reality is we are not that far away on the 10-year treasury yield from where we started the yield -- the year. investors haven't missed it, but there are opportunities to reengage. vonnie: seems a bit of a scary scenario to go for it and go all in their with this uncertainty. do you anticipate a lot of volatility in the weeks before the election? gene: there could be, it's less about one party or the other, but if there is a single party sweep, that would give the markets some concern that we could perhaps lose fiscal discipline as one party was

moving towards its agenda and expanding deficits. we could have a bit of that deficit care, like we had a year ago, but i don't think that will be the primary driving force and the biggest thing from the election will be moving on from it on a market perspective in thinking about tangible policy, something the market hasn't traded on until this point. it's not the critical element at this stage unless we see that single party sweep giving the markets a view on future policy. vonnie: all right, gene, thank you so much. donald trump speaking at any moment to the economic club of new york, expected to share his economic platform and give us more details from what we already know, and there will be a question and answer session. we will bring those remarks to you live. for more on what to expect, here's kailey leinz in

washington, d.c. we have a few outlines of what trump is anticipating he wants to do, talking about things like immigration, tariffs, and so on. what else are we anticipating? kailey: if the reports ahead of the speech are to be believed, we will get the outline of a few new ideas, including the creation of what he is calling a government efficiency commission . if that sounds familiar, it was discussed between he and elon musk last month and the x spaces , honoring the entire federal government, looking for areas of waste that could be cut. that's one thing that we could expect to hear. we also expect to hear more on tax policy, a 15 percent corporate tax rate on companies that make products in the u.s.. he's already said he would like to see the corporate tax rate lowered overall, making the tax cuts from 2017 permanent and proposing no tax on tipped income. bloomberg has crunched the numbers on that and with the

collective proposals that could costs 10.5 trillion dollars over 10 years and in comparison there's only about 9.8 trillion in nondefense discretionary spending over the next 10 years, meaning you could cut everything there is to cut and still those tax cuts would not be fully paid for. tariffs is something else we could hear about on all imports coming into the u.s., 60% with what's coming out of china. also, potentially a press on the economic impact of those policies when it gets to the q&a with the chair of the new york economic club, bob steel. a lot of it could be inflationary or impact the growth of goldman sachs. that is going to be something that could define what he thinks economic outcomes could be and he is expected to take a few swipes at the platform that harris has put out as well.

vonnie: terry haynes writing this morning that that would be nothing in markets time, all the while pretending to not deliver half of what the street thinks. to an extent, a lot of these platforms will affect what happens down ballot. kailey: yesterday harris put forward an expansion of the small business tax credit that she would like to see with a small capital gains tax raise, corporate tax rate to 28% as well, all of it requiring congressional buy-in and a lesser is a democratic sweep in november, she will be able to get that done. the same goes for the policies of donald trump, who we see now is taking the stage of the economic club of new york. vonnie: we are anticipating that he will be speaking any moment now. haley -- kailey, all of this is setting the stage for the debate next tuesday, eagerly

anticipating and going had. we even have those rules? kailey: abc has finalized them and the harris campaign has agreed to them. the one area of dispute was whether the microphones would be muted. that would be the case in the cnn ticket debate and will be again. vonnie: well, this microphone is not muted, the former president donald trump is taking it now. thank you, kailey leinz. donald trump, egypt -- detailing some of his economic plan in new york. let's take a listen. donald: very special thanks to [indiscernible] and the former director of the national economic council, larry kudlow. what a guy. former chair of the council of economic advisers, [indiscernible]

and robert lighthizer, terrific person. wilbur ross, steve mnuchin. former sec chairman, james clayton. [indiscernible] johnson. senior advisor, stephen miller. my friends and respected business leaders, all. john paulson, jamie dimon, steven witkoff, steve schwarzman , scott bessette, jeff straka, richard kurtz, former head of the world bank david now pats, and the two cochairs of a presidential transition team being inundated with phone calls and requests, linda mcmahon and howard let nick.

thank you very much. as we gather today, we have an economic disaster on our hands. we have an economy in crisis. the failing nation. a nation in serious decline under the radical policies of my former opponent, joe biden. and my new opponent, kamala harris. one point 3 million workers have become unemployed in the past 12 months. i don't know if anybody knows that. the typical american family has lost over 28,000 dollars due to rampant and record-setting inflation. credit card debt has reached the highest in history, with more than one in three americans reporting they have maxed out their credit cards. they maxed out. families now need to earn an estimated $110,000 per year to afford a typical home, meaning

65% of households are locked out of buying just an ordinary house. gasoline prices, grocery prices, electricity prices, mortgage rates, virtually everything else are up 30% to 100% since i left office. 8.4 million americans are now working second jobs, the highest in more than 30 years. the real wages of african-american workers are down by over 6% in a short amount of time. the real incomes from hispanic men are down six point 6%, or $3600 per year, and on top of that, african-americans and hispanic american jobs are under massive threat from the invasion taking place on our border. they are taking the jobs of

hispanic americans, african-americans, and nobody talks about it, but i won't let it happen, yet after presiding over the border, the worst in history, for any country, there's never been a border like this, 21 million people, we project, this total economic catastrophe, the borders are, kamala harris, has now been slotted in by the democrats to be reelected. she wants four more years to enforce a radical left agenda that poses a fundamental threat to the prosperity of every american family. america itself, we are talking about america itself. she wants to defund the police. have totally open borders. band fracking in pennsylvania and everywhere else.

perhaps most pertinent to the very brilliant people in this room, raise your business and corporate taxes and, unbelievably, she will seek a tax on unrealized capital gains. most people don't even know what that means. what does it mean? she has been after all of this for years. as everyone knows, she's a marxist who destroyed almost single-handedly san francisco, and when she was the ag, california itself, not the same place, people are leaving and fleeing, like they are in new york. she will seek out and try and get those things if elected. she may very well succeed in getting them. she recently said that her values have not changed and that these have really been her values for her entire career.

her values haven't changed, it's what she wants, so she told the truth. we are not going to let this happen. communism is the past, freedom is the future, and it is time to send comrade kamala harris back home to california, where crime is rampant and fleeing is the number one occupation. i'm here today to lay out our plan to rescue the country from this nightmare and bring back to the citizens the american dream, bigger, better, stronger than ever before. eight years ago i came before you as a candidate for president and shared my vision to and the stagnation and return to rapid growth. it's what we did. as president, i'm very proud to say that we accomplished something that nobody thought was even possible. before pandemic, real median

household income rose by $7,684. even after the pandemic, annual incomes were up $6,400. the average american household saw 100 $97,000 increase in real net worth in 48 months. for the bottom 50% of households, the average wealth more than doubled, increasing by 121%. lowest income people benefited the most. after 12 years of decline, we added nearly 7 million new homeowners, never happened before. in three years we created 7 million new jobs, 260% more than projected then when i took office, when i took office they said you couldn't hit those projections. and we were 260% higher than

what we said we could do. from the day that i one to the day i left, the s&p 500 increased by 80%. we did it all with virtually no inflation. we had virtually no inflation. think of that, who could believe that? i deliver the largest tax cuts and reforms in american history by far. slashing rates for working families and cutting the business tax from the highest in the world. we had the highest in the world. 35%. actually, when you add local and state numbers that were getting close to 50, but much higher, nobody has ever seen it, we brought it down to 21%. which everybody said was impossible to do. i heard it from everyone, they said that you will never be able to do that, i got it down to a

record number of job killing regulations. in four years we had more regulation than any president in history of our country by far and i'm proud to be the only president in modern history to achieve a net regulatory reduction during my term. it was a substantial reduction. for every regulation that we added, we cut more than 5.5 regulations. we unleashed american energy and within three years we had increased domestic oil production by 47%. we were just getting started. the price of gasoline was one dollar 87 cents per gallon. doesn't that sound good right now? we negotiated and renegotiated more than 50 trade agreements with other countries that were taking advantage of us, as they all do, to protect the american worker and to open foreign markets, so we did a great job. i ended nafta, the worst trade

deal ever made in the history of our country and replaced it with the usmca, the best trade deal ever made in history. that's mexico and canada. i stood up to china like no one else before me. no one came even close. i saved to the u.s. auto industry from obliteration with a 27.5% tariff on all chinese cars. it remains in place to this day. they want to take it off, but they can't, because it's too much money and we would be invaded by chinese cars on top of the other invasions that are taking place. without it, our auto industry would be dead. now i am going further. we will bring our auto making industry to the record levels of 37 years ago and we will be able to do it very quickly, through

tariffs and other smart uses of certain things that we have that other countries don't. for four straight years, i fought for american workers like i would fight for my own family. i took care of our economy like i would take care of my own company. every decision, i asked -- will i create jobs here or will i be sending jobs overseas? will it make america richer and stronger or make our country weaker and poorer? i always put america first every time. when our country was hit by the china virus, we saved the economy. we rescued tens of millions of jobs. after covid, i handed kamala and joe the fastest recovery every recorded. nothing close. 1.4% inflation, a 30 year mortgage rate at 2.4% and the

highest stock market in history. this despite the pandemic. to date, i handed them back the highest stock market to date after having just suffered with the rest of the world a pandemic the likes of which nobody had ever seen before. we did an incredible job. remember, former peep -- far more people died of covid under harris and biden then under trump. many, many more people. we delivered an economic miracle, which kamala and joe turned into economic disaster, just like they turned the border and of the whole world into a catastrophic surrender, starting on day one. she launched a nation wrecking border invasion with illegal aliens pouring in from companies -- countries all over the world.

they came in from countries nobody ever heard the name of that country. those countries, from their prisons and their jails, there's a difference, from mental institutions and insane asylums, as well as record numbers of terrorists, human traffickers, sex traffickers, numbers we have never seen before taking place over the last 3.5 years. then kamala cast the deciding vote on trillions of dollars in wasteful spending, which together with their terrible energy policies gave us the worst inflation -- vonnie: that's donald trump speaking to the economic club of new york. right now we are anticipating questions to come in a few moments as soon as he finishes his speech. for more on what he has said, let's bring in kailey leinz. did you hear anything new from

donald trump yet? kailey: no, though a lot of this is her repeated misstatement of facts, including when he talked about things that he said he accomplished in his first administration. when it comes to tax cuts, for example, he said they were the largest in american history. according to the committee for the responsible federal budget meant, that's not true as measured as a without providing evidence around mental institutions and insane asylums and prisons. by and large, the steet -- this speech so far is criticizing the policies of harassing what she has put forward reflecting on the prior years in the presidency that ended at the end of 2021. here's what he would want to pursue in a second term in the oval office. we are expecting he will outline

the commission to cut wasteful areas of spending in the federal government. we are also expecting him to talk about corporate tax cuts, lowering the tax rate for companies that make products in the u.s.. he has not gotten to that potential policy at this point in the speech, he's just rehashing things he -- we have heard before. vonnie: exactly. he's got another 10 minutes to speak before the q&a. he mentioned all the people in his camp in the audience, it will be a big audience. he talked about things like 30 year mortgage being at two point 4% and the stock market at an all-time high and so on. these things are true, but for various different reasons. this will give harris an idea of what to expect on tuesday night, if she didn't already anticipate some of these. kailey: absolutely. the debate coming up on tuesday and perhaps the trump conduct in the q&a that's about to take place when he finishes his

repair remarks could be indicative of the answers we could get when pressed on these policies and it is worth painting i -- pointing out that harris could be pressed on this as well, as she has floated higher tax rates and is still talking about subsidizing first time down payment assistance for first-time homebuyers and a higher tax credit for small businesses. it all costs money and economists told me she could have deficit active policies like donald trump and they could both be facing difficult questions when it comes to what they are outlining. what i would note as we look at what could translate to the debate stage, trump seems to be sticking to his prepared script. we often see him veering off onto different topics and speeches like this and that doesn't necessarily appear to be happening as he speaks before the economic club of new york today. kailey: i noticed -- vonnie: i noticed that as well, we will see what he responds to when it comes to q&a. we will bring you more of that

throughout the hour. in another part of midtown at our world headquarters, power players, where we gather industry leaders, investors, and athletes revolutionizing the business of sports. that's going on right now. let's dive in with david rubenstein, owner of the baltimore orioles, speaking to cal ripken junior, part of the ownership group. -- >> if your games get moved around, your body wants to get into a routine and it's hard. >> when you are a former professional baseball player as famous as you are, people come up and they want autographed selfies, hate to bother you, but can i bother you. what do you say? too busy? how do you deal with it? when you are at a hotel, when these little kids are trying to get autographs, how do you deal with all of that? >> when you get older, they

don't do it so much anymore. [laughter] i'm grateful that i get recognized as readily as i do. i always keep in mind, and sometime someone approaching you, they are nervous, they lose their mind, they say you are my biggest fan and i say -- i am? they lose it. you have to keep in mind that it's meaningful to them. at that moment, by signing your name for a little kid, their eyeballs get big and they run back to their mom or whoever else and say look what i got, you helped that happen. if you remember what happens afterwards, you know, focus on -- you just manage it, you get through it. >> what was it like the day that you broke the record of lou gehrig. there was an outpouring. everyone was calling you h i t, was that the highlight of your

life, professionally? >> there were two moments and i will answer that question in two parts. best feeling ever on the baseball field was catching the last out of the world were series 41 years ago, 1983. a little humpback a line drive. second best feeling or personal moment was the lap around camden yards. the game became official and everyone came through and i said thank you, thank you. bobby whitley and raffaella paul merrow said he would have to take a lap around or we would never get the game started, which i thought was silly, so i went around shaking hands and the celebration started at 101 and by the time i got to third base, i could care less if the game ever started again.

when you got there, you weren't injured, you decided not to keep going. why? >> i was tired. [laughter] >> ok. >> i felt that there was some support that was gone. we were going through another rebuilding process. when things aren't going well, there are fingers all over the place. i felt it was the right time to reset it. i went into the manager's office five minutes before the game and said this is it. >> now that you are an owner of the orioles, how do you feel about these high-priced contracts that apply -- that a player gets. how do you look at that as an owner, differently? [laughter] >> slightly. i tried to think about what the other intangible values are that you can offer a player besides bottom-line dollars. they are so big now, you could make a case for saying how much. it's about ego, it's about

breaking the bank, it's about agents wanting it to go up for other people who come through. but if you take -- my situation was i wanted to play in one place and have control of playing in one place. i think that if we get to a point where we are trying to convince our players to stay, you want to try to tell them all the values associated with, you know, derek jeter playing his whole career in a pinstripe uniform. me playing my whole career in the orioles. what does it mean for the bigger picture? it will be a competitive landscape, where we will basically have to. >> baltimore is smaller compared to the new york teams in los angeles. is that a big problem, a smaller city in major league baseball? >> i never liked the idea that you couldn't compete when you are a small market team. competition is in your knowledge. you get to draft, you get to

sign players and develop players. it's not all free agency that's happening. but if you are a big market team and make a mistake in judgment on a player, you can throw more money on your mistakes. as a smaller market team, you have to be better. >> we are out of time and i want to thank you for what you have done for baseball for many years. if you had seen me when i was younger, do you think i could have learned to be a professional baseball player? given my physique? or would it not have worked? [laughter] >> i think you made the right choice in your career. >> thanks very much. good to see you. vonnie: but a diplomatic answer. if you want to watch more of that interview with cal ripken junior and catch the interview with seth curry happening later today, tune in to live go on the terminal or stream it. let's get back to today's

markets. quick check on the markets, off of their lows, it's an equal weighted s&p that's down, lower than the mag seven, an interesting phenomenon to observe, this rally that had been giving itself some more breath, doesn't seem to be doing that today. the stocks index lower, but not so much the case now. several socks are higher, but most are lower. in terms of the yield curve, we are very much flirting with this inversion and are paring gains for treasuries after there was more weakness in the market and we wait for the non-foreign payroll friday. let's get a look at the day movers with abigail doolittle. abigail: it's interesting, the s&p 500 is down .5% but beneath that there is a tug-of-war between the gainers and the laggards.

tesla is the top point boost and last i checked it was the last of the top percentage movers. it's interesting, this is on the news that the company next year in china and in europe is planning on offering a service to help auto driving. folks are excited about this. they will also have, soon, get this, snow tires for your cyber truck. whatever the cause, it could be the recent dip with tesla up sharply. jetblue, up more, pre-announcing on the upside of their revenues, raising the guide. it's interesting, the crowdstrike technology debacle from july grounded the delta airlines planes along with the other airlines. apparently, jetblue was able to really scoop up those passengers , which is why they are raising that revenue. on the downside, it's the health care distributor that has distributed two lines of business that will apparently way on $.25 along with investors

trying to figure out what that simplification could been. hewlett-packard, down, beating on revenues and sales. the ai business was strong. the traditional server business, not as much, weighing on servers. let's take a look at the big one that has been moving all over the place on the day, the week, the quarter, and video. this is a six-day view. ahead of the stock had been down 16%. this is a one-day percent change. we can see what's happening right now and the stock is up 1%, offsetting the other chip weakness. nvidia again strengthening a bit here, though i will caution technically not looking at the chart right now, it appears there could be weakness ahead in line with the downtrend, but right now investors are trying to fight that. vonnie: absolutely, a little bit

of optimism after bank of america suggesting more optimism from nvidia and that last barometer reading for the quarter with a broad, earnings. thank you, abigail doolittle. for more now, let's bring in quincy calls v. howe confirmed are you about the labor market right now? -- concerned are you about the labor market? quincy: there is a difference between slowing and normalizing versus collapsing and whether or not we need a 50 basis point cut at the next fed meeting. friday morning will be interesting, tomorrow morning. it's further interesting that right after the release we will have two fed speakers. the question will be if the numbers are weaker than expected , the market is 162 to 172 new job openings, also expecting the labor unemployment rate to come down a bit.

if it goes the other way, we will hear whether or not they start leading the market towards 50 basis points. i'm sure they are talking about it. what will have to happen before the blackout is they could guide the market in some way, suggesting perhaps the fed looks bigger. this is very important for the market, we all know that the market wants to see the fed cut rates, because inflation is coming down and the higher end machine has warranted it. it's extremely important. also, there's questions in the market as to whether or not we break 54-55 in the s&p 500. that debate is ongoing along with the ravens and the chiefs. right now we will see if the market closes there as impression is do we have more to go on the way down and is this a precursor, or probably the end, of the downturn of the notorious september?

normally the worst comes in the second half, beginning technically september 16. there's a lot riding on the market right now as to whether or not the fed goes 50 and scares the market or if it stays at 25. yeah, i mean, as neil says, do it while you still can. there's an argument for getting out of the way fast before things deteriorate later in the year. there's also an argument for waiting and being sanguine and saying that we have now done some, let's do more. quincy, would you be a buyer tomorrow if we got data reinforcing the 25 basis point notion? most likely, the market is going to buy on the dip. the market is looking for the way that august ended, with newly minted 401(k) millionaires and suddenly everything turns ugly. the market will then take a deep sigh of relief and probably start pulling out of this.

we expect to see more bouts of volatility before september is over. vonnie: we have seen a huge amount of volatility, but what has changed? there was a broadening out of the rally that has stalled, to some extent. there were moves and treasuries, i will give you that, but even the lower moving chips, we had seen it before, they are allowed to move around a lot and it is possible they will be recouping some of these losses already. how do you know? quincy: to give you an example, broadcom is coming after the close. they are extremely important in the infrastructure picture. i mean, they help with the generative ai and the processing. we will see if buyers come in, if broadcom delivers a look at the aftermarket. the fact of the matter is that ai is not going away. it will probably just pull back.

once the valuation is in it -- with nvidia, by the way, he's trying to pull up. there was commentary in the marketplace that he did not receive a message from the government and that is perhaps false. overall, is not going to wait. the question is if it's the valuation from the expenditures and if that continues apace, but what the market wants to see above all else is let's see it integrated. cm integrated into your products and monetized. perhaps we get a picture from apple when they come up with upgraded phones that supposedly has more of the ai embedded in. we will see what the market reaction is. vonnie: nvidia commented that they did not get subpoenaed, but in some sense it might be a difference of words. we will have to wait and see

what happens there and there are challenges ahead. that also recognized by bank of america, saying challenges doesn't mean the stock won't go higher. your background so much in fixed income. next 50 basis, lower or higher? >> that's a really hard one. if the number comes out, it shows that we have gained jobs and could see it go higher. vonnie: quincy, thank you so much. quincy crosby there at l k l financial. this is bloomberg. ♪

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vonnie: this is "bloomberg markets." donald trump, still speaking with the economic club of new york right now. question and answer session has not started yet but we have been following the nippon steel of -- takeover of steel corp., on the verge of collapse, with joe biden prepared to block the deal, with potential domestic ramifications. biden is expected to make remarks on the economy today at 4 p.m. eastern. to speak about all of us -- all of this now is henrietta treyz. just want to point out that trump has been talking at the economic club about cutting corporate tax rates to 15% for some companies, though they must make some products in america to get the tax cut to that level. we are on the tax portion of the session right now but this u.s. steel story, is this just a political ploy?

it strikes me that the national security claims are a bit dubious with u.s. steel being such an in -- minnow compared to nippon steel. >> if you bring ohio and pennsylvania into the conversation in an election year, you will have politics involved. for the last years investors have been focused on wondering whether the deal would be allowed to go through by secretary alan and it's usual to speak -- to expect delays and biden is expected to make comments and i expect them to be relatively squishy to allow for future negotiations and a stronger hand for the workers to be a major part of that announcement as he tries to shore up pennsylvania for the democratic caucus. vonnie: you think that's the play? there are likely to be job losses in the u.s. if the deal

doesn't go through. henrietta: there definitely will be for all of the different factories. pittsburgh and those surrounding areas, but they are trying to make it clear that unions need to have a strong hand in the conversation. the unions are trying to understand what is the best for the future of their 1.2 million steel worker union members and you have a conch -- conflict were at the top of the union there's a strong support for the democratic candidate and then downstream among the actual members you have a lot of supporters for donald trump, so they are trying to thread the needle both ways on this one. obviously, the democratic and republican candidate have come out against the deal. vonnie: will this flip pennsylvania? henrietta: i don't think so as it will be unresolved around what comes next.

i think that pennsylvania is going to be razor thin. biden only got that state by 80,000 votes last time and he's from scranton. it's going to be a tough lift for kamala harris. trying to make it swing their way right now. vonnie: thanks for standing by. if we had q&a we would be asking you more about the trump comments right now. thank you, henrietta. now we are watching verizon, going to purchase frontier. the head of frontier joined us earlier today. >> this is straight into our core strategy in mobility broadband with all types of customers in the market, consumers in these large enterprises. this is just extended offering of optionality for the customers , so it's a really good position , if you ask. vonnie: $38 50 cents per share

with a 30% premium over the tuesday closing price, assuming of course that they agree to it and there are no regulatory issues either. coming up, commercial real estate continues to loom as a risk. will it change the calculus on wall street? we discussed, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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vonnie: this is this is bloomberg. ♪ ." -- this is "bloomberg markets." commercial real estate risk could be with us for years according to jerome powell. for more, let's bring in abigail doolittle and david steinbock. you have about $100 billion in commercial real estate, one of the largest private investment managers in the state. david, you are bullish. why so bullish?

david: it's important to remember the private markets are a much different space in public markets and the public markets have had a long time to recover. now with this impending fed adjustment next week, that will be a psychological pivot point for the market, bringing clarity that we are hitting bottom, helping to entice a lot of investors. kailey: one area of abigail: -- one area of commercial real estate that everyone seems to hate is the office, but you have a different view? david: we are seeing a real disconnect between fundamentals and capital markets and some of the best markets, we are actually doing quite -- quite well. last 20 years 6% of the total inventory was 20% of the activity and we are seeing that really continue today. the disconnect does not make sense to us and we think that the market will begin to recognize that. we are starting with credit and

equity, so we are more cautious on the equity side, but we see opportunity there. abigail: what's your favorite sector right now? david: more retail and multifamily. they have different dynamics around them that make them very interesting. retail has 15 years of being reworked without much product delivered in that time. with the living sector, it's typically first in, first out of any correction. the u.s. is about three houses short. abigail: the fed is widely expected to cut up to 50 basis points this month. some have said that won't do anything. how much do they have to cut to bring in the bottom that you think is here for commercial real estate? david: we've been on a 30 month journey, so if you are dealing with 500, it isn't going to

extremely move the needle. to me it's more of a psychological point about what the market is waiting for and if we are on the other side of the break, the, the challenge that jerome powell has had, it's also interesting to see that since 1962 we have had nine different versions of having had to tame inflation through interest rate increases. eight of those resulted in a harder procession. it's certainly becoming more clear that the market is headed for a softer landing, giving investors a lot more confidence that this time it is the exception, which powell seems to have pulled off. abigail: you are of course global. vonnie: so we would like to thank you. david, thanks for joining us. i'm vonnie quinn, that was abigail doolittle joining us, thank you. "bloomberg markets that does it for"bloomberg markets. -- that does it for "bloomberg markets."

donald trump, hasn't gotten to the q&a portion just yet. check your live go right now. this is bloomberg. ♪ with so much entertainment out there wouldn't it be great... ...if you could find what you want, all in one place? show me paris. xfinity internet customers can enjoy the ultimate entertainment experience and save on some of the biggest names in streaming, all for just $15 a month. get the fastest connection to paris with xfinity.

>> from the world of politics to the world of business, this is "balance of power."

live from washington, d.c. joe: they are drawing lines on taxes. welcome to the fastest shows in politics. the two presidential campaigns have competing proposals on rewriting the tax code. i'm joe mathieu alongside kailey leinz in washington. thanks for being with us on this thursday edition of "balance of power." donald trump just confirming his take on the corporate tax rate. e can fill in another blank in our dance card. kailey: to get that, you have to be a company that actually makes products in the u.s., all a part of what he says is trying to restore american manufacturing and says he will be using tariffs to encourage production in the u.s. and that's not all we have heard as he's been speaking. he's made a number of misstatements about things like the border and announced a new government efficiency task force commission and guess who will be leading it? joe: elon musk?