♪ sonali: welcome to bloomberg markets." i am sonali basak. let's get a check on the markets. the s&p 500 is off the session lows but still down by more than .1%. the same goes for the nasdaq 100. down point 8% or more. -- down .8%. really interested in the two-year yield before the rate

decision, down by almost three basis points. in a month, we have seen a move by almost 50 basis points. incredible and shows you the change in expectations for the fed this wednesday. we have abigail doolittle here to walk us through. abigail: it is incredible to move on the 2-year yield is not helping the mega cap sector. this is idiosyncratic, down 3.2%, the worst date in more than a month as an analyst is talking about the idea the first launch we can for the iphone pro 16 was weaker than expected, down 13% year over year. j.p. morgan saying that is disappointing as well. you can see the stock is down. it is not just apple. it is also apple suppliers. they are down dramatically.

corvo down 8%. they received nearly 50% of their revenue from apple. qualcomm still down 2%. they have 30% revenue gathering from apple. it is not all bad, we do have the indexes lower, but one stock doing well, oracle up more than 50% on the year. today up 6.8%. up 6.8%. the analyst saying the sales growth is moving in the right direction. sonali: thank you so much. the big debate is all about whether the fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points. hear what two prominent voices told bloomberg earlier today.

>> the market has come to the view that 50 points is appropriate. it is important the fed get back to neutral expeditiously and 25 was not fast enough. >> i always say we will see what the market does. it may be that it does not make that much of a difference. there will be three cuts of 25. what matters is where we are at the end of the year. the total sum of the rate cuts may matter more than how they do it. sonali: for more, we are joined by anna wong. the last couple of days, the chorus about 50 basis points, the idea that 50 would not move the market, that 50 is what we need right now, that the fed could telegraph a smoother path ahead, is all of that holding up

heading into the fed meeting on wednesday? the prior concerns about 50, have they been erased? anna: we have seen the markets betting on 50 increasing since thursday afternoon. in between those days, we have seen the stock market holding up pretty well. the narrative that jay powell will give on wednesday will confirm whether 50 would be an alarmist move for if it helps the market believe in soft landing chances more. we think powell is going to give a very not alarmist characterization, justification of why they are doing 50 bips. i think there are a lot of ways the central bank chairman can channel 50 without alarming the

market. sonali: i want to talk about the concern being raised politically. i want to raise what was brought forward by democratic senators including elizabeth warren who said if the fed is too cautious, it would needlessly risk our economy heading towards recession. talk about the validity of this view. there have been a lot of concern about the political pressure on the fed to do more. 75, is this economy warranting anywhere near that mega cut? anna: normally, you will not find me agreeing with senator warren's ideas about the fed, however i do agree with her reasoning that if the fed does want to ensure that there will be a soft landing, it needs to cut more rapidly to get to the neutral pace. i disagree we need 75 right now.

i think the most important jobs report looking forward is the one on november 1. that report will show whether rate cuts is doing anything to stabilize the unemployment rate. if it is on a path to 4.7% at the end of the year, the fed probably will need to do another 50 basis point cuts in november after the election or it will have to do 75 down the line. sonali: what do you think this means for the overall trajectory of cuts? it is remarkable to think about the november 1 report being that important just before the election. to the point you are making, also, there's only one fed meeting before the election days from now. the next one is days after. the rest of the year, markets are pricing and 120 basis points for the rate cuts -- pricing and 120 basis points for the rate cuts. do you think that will materialize? anna: i think the market is

thinking the unemployment rate would move up to 4.5 percent. if the on employment rate is rising to 4.5% and the fed pencils and four point 3%, it means the fed will likely be surprised on the upside by an employment and do another 50 basis points in a subsequent meeting. that will get you to want to 25 -- that will get you to 125 for the year. that will get you to current market pricing. sonali: thank you for your time and analysis. that is anna wong. we will now turn to politics. the presidential election is marked by another assassination attempt on former president trump. president biden saying today the secret service needs more help.

we are joined by kailey leinz in washington. amid the fallout in the wake of the assassination attempt, let's start with congress, the reaction particularly after they have rallied to clean up the prior follow-up from the prior assassination attempt. what now? kailey: there have been bipartisan outcries against this type of political violence after second attempt on donald trump's life. the shooter in the other case was killed by the shooter where as the would be shooter yesterday have been apprehended by police. he appeared in federal court today and was charged with federal firearms violations. the investigation will be ongoing. congress will have a role to play. there has been a bipartisan task force to look into what happened

in july in pennsylvania. they have requested a briefing from the secret service this week. we are seeing proposals like that from rick scott who would like to see greater protection for the former president. even how speaker mike johnson has said the house will push for greater resources for the secret service. the questions are around funding money and personnel and whether the agency charged with protecting presidents and nominees is adequately staffed and has enough resources. there were logistical challenges yesterday with the golf course they were trying to keep secure for the former president and republican nominee. they were not able to identify the suspect -- they were able to identify the suspect and he fled before he fired at the president -- former president. the investigation will remain underway for some time.

sonali: what does this mean for the election itself, to see this kind of attempt at violence at a time when you yourself said you were trying to see a show of unity starting to surface between the parties? kailey: after the first attempted assassination on the eve of the republican national convention, he was preaching a message of unity. it feels the reaction to this has been different from the candidate who in his first interview since the events earlier today blank the rhetoric of president biden and vice president kamala harris for the reason he was targeted, essentially saying the shooter believed the rhetoric. he said he could use more fiery language. this does raise questions around the rhetoric that could be fueling this potential violence.

elon musk has aligned himself with trump and is the owner of the platform x. posted yesterday, now deleted, that no one is trying to assassinate joe biden or kamala harris with the thinking emerging. it has now been deleted. it is raising the question of whether these conversations are fueling risks to candidates and a former president. sonali: thank you for your reporting. we will be eagerly awaiting your reporting on "balance of power." we will talk about two major u.s. tv providers sent to be in early discussions of discussing a potential merger. the reporter who broke the story joins us next. this is bloomberg. ♪ do you charge forward?

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♪ ♪ sonali: this is "bloomberg markets." i am sonali basak. time for the stock of the hour, at&t. sources say at&t is an talk to combine the directv service with dish. it is a deal that could create the largest pay-tv provider in the united states. for more, we are joined by the reporter that broke the story, michelle davis, senior deals reporter. you obviously see some movement under the surface with the parent company of dish. how does this change the game? how realistic is a merger like this in the current regulatory environment? >> this is a deal contemplated for more than 20 years. they tried to combine back in the early 2000's doj blocked the

deal in 2002. at the time, pay-tv was a big thing. we did not have netflix. the world has changed a lot since then. now the view is that a deal like this would almost be about survival. they are still in early talks. there is no certainty it will get announced. insiders are telling us they do think the deal would get through this time because the argument is that if they do not combine, they will cease to exist. sonali: when you think about the slow change you have seen, it seems asked too many, but we are still looking at a world where pay-tv does exist and you have large iconic household companies that own the space. what kind of pressure does streaming put on them now, particularly with new deals with large sports franchises that may be did not exist even a year ago? >> streaming has allowed people to create their own cable

bundles. they do not have to pay for directv or dish. for dish and directv, they always had a sweet spot with rural customers who cannot get access to tv in other ways. with internet access becoming more accessible in rural areas, these companies do not provide that. they are also dealing with the rise of streaming and cutting the cord but they have been able to punch back by offering broadband internet. that is how they have stayed in the game. but these can't. sonali: what is interesting is the role of tpg. you see more and more private equity firm's playing a role in these joint venture. what are they doing here? michelle: tpg and at&t in 2021 formed a joint venture with a spun -- where they spun directv

out into a new company. it has been a great deal for tpg because directv generates a lot of cash. as we have seen the past few years, private equity is looking for ways to monetize their investments. at&t as well, there was a provision that allowed them after three years to exit their stake. that elapsed as of last month. that is part of what could be driving some of the timing. sonali: absolutely fascinating. congrats on the scoop. that is michelle davis with bloomberg news. options trading growth is breaking records. one firm is responding with a whole new exchange. details on that, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

sonali: this is "bloomberg markets." the equities exchange is entering the options market with its own exchange. brian harkins is leading the charge and here today. we are also joined katherine doherty who has been covering the story for bloomberg news. first talk about why you are doing this. there is a cost to building the infrastructure. what is the big opportunity for you? >> thank you for having me on. we looked into the entry into the market. what is driving it is the unprecedented growth in the industry driven by retail activity. it is one of the fastest growing asset classes in the world. option market volumes have tripled over the last decade. two, i think what we built and our obsession over market

quality is driving our entrance. third is that success starts with people. we have built an amazing team with a great foundation. we just brought in two of the best exchange experts for options. sonali: there are a number if ---- >> there are a number of options exchanges. if approved, yours would be the 19th. how do you see success competing with the other 18? >> we ask ourselves that question. when i look at our equities franchise, there is no other exchange that looks like iex. it is a competitive market.

what we provide can be applicable in the options industry. the reason why we announce today and not months ago was because we wanted to have in-depth conversation with market participants about the ideas we had and listen to help we can help them -- to how we can help solve challenges they seek. sonali: there is a boom in retail trading. what role does that play and how much of that are you trying to capture with this exchange? >> when you look at volumes coming out of the pandemic, you had this amazing spike in volumes everybody thought would abate and did nothing but persist. innovation in the products that wealth managers are using, the innovation is happening at all turns in the space. >> do you think that growth is

sustainable long-term? you are continue. there are skeptics that say, when does it pull back, when does it become not sustainable? >> we are interested in the space to provide tools. options is more of a cult driven market. tesla has 3200 different types of teslas. the options industry has 1.5 million tradable instruments. equities is about 10,000. the risk profile of the trade, for this to be sustainable, we have to provide tools to market professionals serving investors. sonali: there are a lot of worries not just about sustainability of options but whether it is good for investors, whether the retail traders know what they are getting into. do they? >> the options industry does a

great job with education. there have to be suitability standards and transparent disclosures about the use cases of options. they are not just speculation tools. you can use it to hedge portfolios and generate additional premium to enhance the value of your portfolio. >> how are you thinking about education in building out the new venue? are you building your own tools to educate? >> we are focused on education -- execution quality and serving market makers and liquidity providers. we look at them as great partners and how we can help them make investors feel safe trading and be able to transfer risk in the options market. sonali: what will it take to get past the finish line? you still require regulatory approval. is there anything else you need to get off the ground? how soon can you start trading? >> we have our sights set on

2025 the project is well underway. we want to ensure the regulators are comfortable with our market model and there will be adoption of our product. we understand it is a competitive market. we are not trying to launch another copycat product. i can assure you that our product will be different. we want to make sure we approach the market in the right way. sonali: no firm date yet? >> all pending approval. sonali: as many other things are as well. thank you so much, bryan harkins. let's check on the markets before we let you go. we have been looking at a dim day before we see the fed decision on wednesday with the s&p 500 seen declines of almost .1%. the two-year yield now below 355, down almost four basis points on the day.

interesting to see the moves as more traders bet on the first rate cut of 50 basis points perhaps. i am sonali basak. that does it for "bloomberg markets." this is bloomberg. ♪ usiness out there and get more customers in here. no sweat... for you anyway. create a beautiful website in minutes with godaddy. ♪ ♪ create a beautiful website in minutes with so much great entertainment out there... wouldn't it be easier if you could find what you want, all in one place? my favorites. get xfinity streamsaver with netflix, apple tv+, and peacock included, for only $15 a month.

>> six to the world of business debt from the world of politics to the world of business, this is "balance of power."

live from washington, d.c. joe: donald trump rhetoric from democrats for the second assassination attempt. welcome to the fastest show in politics, as the former president speaks out, assuspect is charged with gun crimes. i'm joe mathieu alongside kailey leinz in washington as we try to pick up the pieces of another wild turn in the campaign. this question about what impact if any this will have on the presidential race and the level of production donald trump should be afforded. kailey: as a former president he is not entitled to the same protection that the incumbent, joe biden, is, but that could change as you are having bipartisan calls in congress to increase resources to the secret service and even florida senator rick scott calling for greater protection for donald trump specifically. against that, an investigation into this attempt