>> good morning. these are the stories in london. it is 50-50 on 50.

investors countdown to tomorrow's fed decision on and uncertainty over the size of the rate cuts. it is at its highest first 17 years. intel jumps in lay trade after a multibillion-dollar deal or propose wanting no factories and iraq's prime minister tells us u.s. troops are not needed in his country anymore. we bring you the exclusive conversation. ♪ tom: in next picture a cost of equity markets. the s&p 500 modestly in positive territory. european stocks a little softer,

on the downside. european feature set for modest gains in terms of european stocks. in the u.k., ftse 100 .4% in terms of copper and non-oil prices. s&p futures currently flat there will be many investors sitting on the sidelines ahead of the crucial fed decision. the answer tomorrow on whether they are 25 or 50. mastec futures also flat. the focus again within the currency space. the bloomberg dollar index still at lows last seen in about january of this year. the two-year in terms affect decisions is that 355. we get the survey later.

brent is $73 a barrel. and gold is $575 rate goldman sachs saying gold could take a leg lower if you only get a 25 basis when cut from the fed would still maintain the target longer-term. so looking at 2700 for gold per ounce. let's check in on the moves around intel because it is not often we've been able to flag some good news around this chipmaker. the headlines crossing about a partnership with intel between intel and amazon. aws to make a custom-made ai chip and premarket intel is getting about. we will continue to get the details on that story. the consequences for the future of intel given that stock is down about 50% year to date.

let's go to singapore. standing by with a check on the markets in asia. avril: yeah, it is really about the fed and the first rate cut this cycle. how markets seem to be leaning more heavily towards the 50 basis point move. that is a tailwind for equities on the hang seng. seeing a bit of green but the pain is coming through for japanese equities that have come back from a long weekend and succumbing to what we saw on the yen a-day ago as it rallied 9.6 against the greenback the yen has given up most of the gains but for some of our strategists, they are as much as 2% on the nikkei and the topics hit by the export related needs and chip sox reflects how skittish reflectors are about how we will get from the federal reserve. how that could turbocharge the

japanese currency and i wanted to highlight what we are seeing in terms of the topics and how it was sensitive to moves in the japanese in curtsy. that has climbed since august when it gives you a sense about how investors will have to adjust. this is the highest form this year. something to keep in mind with a lot at stake at of the boj this week. tom: sensitive to the yen around that decision.

this is an traders are roughly split as to how the big benefit rate cut will be. let's bring in mary nichola on how the market is adjusting around this decision. the change has been quite substantial of until now. talk to us about the latest pricing and expeditions around this key decision by the fed tomorrow. mary: it looks like traders are conflicted as to what the fed decision could bring tomorrow. and whether we get a 25 basis point cut or 50 basis point cut. it is not only that. it is also about the reaction from assets as a result of a 25 basis point cut or 50 basis point and in that sense, the fed seems to be facing a double edge sword which might raise concerns

and whether they can see growth unfolding and where they see the path. a little more clearer on the forwarder guidance would be something that traders will welcome. stocks but also welcome. tom: we look for the guidance as well. our people equally important, in terms of how to expect or position around future cuts with the federal reserve. 25 or 50. in terms of a particular asset, i know i have been through scrutinizing the aspect of the yen -- yen a little

softer on the session but higher. talk to us about the fx space and the sensitivity. is it more about the yen in terms of the read across on potentially softer dollar? mary: it looks like, especially for the dollar, especially with what we are seeing from the fed, it will be -- especially critical for fx. we have seen the dollar come a long way and it has dropped considerably. over the last few weeks and i think that is where the vulnerability comes in so if let's say you get a pushback in the fed in terms of only 25 basis point cut. and you can also see the fact that the dollar comes -- rallies as well. it is more about the dollar and the yen. even if nothing happens with the

fed, the focus is on the yen because the boj is coming this week and it is not going to be -- they are not expected to do anything but have a message in terms of the more hawkish approach, they been consistently moving towards the hawkish bias. or other peers within the boj -- they've been mentioning how they want to adjust rates especially if the policy -- if the outlook continues. if it is not from the fed, it will be the boj and that boj hawkish tone will give a boost to the yen. tom: 140, 79 right now for the yen. we will look ahead to the boj meeting. iraq's prime minister has told us u.s. troops are no longer

needed -- talk us through what we've been hearing in this exclusive conversation with the prime minister of iraq? joumanna: we went to baghdad over the weekend over the weekend a half-hour conversation spending topics from regional politics, his view on the ongoing war in gaza. very close relationship with iran historically and increasingly so. as well as their desire to see a full withdrawal of u.s. troops in the country. many of them have been stationed there since 2014 with the stated aim of defeating isis. a lot of the conversation was around that. we also spoke about the importance of the hydrocarbon sector.

and they are the second largest producer within opec. iraq has been overproducing over their quota. i asked why? >> iraq is an important country in opec and opec-plus. we coordinate with our brothers, especially our brothers and the kingdom of saudi arabia. we are committed to voluntary cuts and they were issues at the brothers understood in terms of the slight increase in production and iraq committed to commentating for that. we began in august of this year. we are committed to the decisions of opec and opec-plus in a way that protects the price of oil and this balance between

the interests of the producers and consumers. joumanna: you say you will start introducing compensations. where is that going to come from? >> we started reducing the domestic production and reducing the exports and airway in the oil market. joumanna: can you talk about the future of the pipeline from kyrgyzstan? it has been shut off for several months now. and the opec quotas. >> let's understand the problems with the iraqi-turkish oil pipeline.

the exports stopped from say han after the decision from the international court in paris over a lawsuit filed by the former iraqi government, iraq supporting oil without approval. and then we spaced another problem and that is a legal issue. it was decisions by the federal court regarding oil contracts and kurdistan region. and the budget law that fixed the average cost of producing a barrel that is unsurpassed eight dollars for every barrel. whereas, fixed production costs in the oil contracts and oil companies with kurdistan region is over $26. we are now in front of two options only. we either amend the contracts. or we amend the budget law and this requires a political argument.

we are missing the production capacity from this strategic important line and we are keen on investing existing oil and the work of the companies. their ongoing talks with the companies and with brothers and with brothers in the kurdistan region. joumanna: could it happen this year? >> possible. joumanna: iraw is the second largest oil producer in the play a big role in determining the overall barrels that are put back the market. the voluntary cuts have not been in hearing -- he told me they ponder introducing this competition cuts but not a lot of detail and a lot of the swing factors to think about from the perspective we look as though

they are looking to a resolution in some form and that would mean potentially in even more production from iraq coming to the market, to the tune of 500,000 barrels a day. why is this important? if you think macro, we talked about the potential downside risk oil. and some of the signals coming through from china and you have to think about the supply that is coming through. opec has been trying to manage the supply into the market but iraq has been overproducing versus the 200,000 more than the quota dictates. bringing more barrels the market. something to bear in mind. tom: joumanna, with the axles of interview.

something to think about, we are going to be getting some details around new eu commissioners being announced as the palace industry in brussels continues. lobbying firm up potential issue. we will break that live for you and at 1:30 p.m. u.k. time, it is you see a real tail sales. really confidential. they can give some details about whether or not the fed goes 25 or 50. we will feed into that debate as to make that decision. 1:30 p.m. the retail time. moree emerges about the suspect and the apparent assassination attempt on donna trump aide of we will have the details next pay a. we will discuss ai tech and regulation in the year. we will speak to kirsten ruf at 6:30 a.m. u.k. time. this is bloomberg.

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tom: welcome back. more details about the subject in the apparent assassination attempt on former president donald trump. the fbi says he may have been in the area neil drums golf course for about 12 hours. before he was spotted. bill ferry -- what has the fbi been saying in terms of this suspect and the details that have come through in the last 12 hours? >> well, like you said, the 58-year-old suspect may have been, according to his cilia phone data, spending about 12 hours in the area which is

according to the fbi and police and investigation. the vehicle he was captured in had license plates that were stolen from motor vehicle. a lot of detail still emerging. we were charged with two counts -- a felon having a weapon illegally and another having a weapon and that have the serial number scratched out. i suspect we will have a lot more details on additional charges over the next week or two but the fbi looking very deeply into his social media is to see if there's any more they can figure out about his motivations. tom: to what extent has this episode readjusted or led to changes to the trump campaign?

>> it has allowed them to turn the page on our discussion and trump's focus more on saying the democratic rhetoric has led to the second assassination attempt on him. he's trying to push back and say he wants to keep fighting and committed to winning the election. we are not going to hear as much talk about things like and other things with the former president is typically on a stronger footing. tom: ok, thank you on the update around the suspect and how the

trump campaign is adjusting to this event. plenty more coming up. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we do need to raise money to get resources for this to let the poor countries get out of the poverty trap and are self-sufficient. the innovation is going to accelerate tools like ai, helping us to understand the immune system. how to decide vaccines in a very deep way. the key thing that the foundation has marked as innovation is making sure it is not helping the rich countries but helping the poor.

can they get medical advice in their needle of language, can they have diseases that are so ignored like malaria? can we use ai and looking in innovation and making sure it is benefiting. >> global leaders of wealthy defend at the nation's are preoccupied with their own political stabilities, the only worries about the cost of living. will you get the help you need from developed nations, do you think? >> that's a very good question. we dream is that even in the face of huge budgetary challenges that all countries have, that they would be willing

to have 1% to 2% that go to help the poorest. these are things where you are saving a life for less than $1000. very catalytic, very well measured i wouldn't have a putting my money into her until it was extremely well spent. and we are trying to get this in the agenda to keep the miracle that took place where we made so much progress getting rid of childhood death. tom: that was bill gates eking to bloomberg caroline hyde. some other stories making the news. microsoft has unveiled a new $60 billion stock buyback program, matching its largest ever repurchase.

shareholders will receive a quarterly dividend of $.83 a share, up from the current $.75. replacing the buyback program announced in 2021. boeing is freezing hiring to preserve cash as the playmaker strike. incrementing cost measures as well as trimming supplier spending. workers rejected a proposal which would have boosted wages by 25% over four years. the amazon ceo is moving to streamline and the walls largest online retailer and planned computing company. and ordering employees to return to the office five days a week beginning in january. he announced a shakeup in it memo yesterd saying.

coming up after that are part sure of -- brussels has a job vacancy. we will get reaction to that and discuss what europe and the u.k. frankly needs to do to close the innovation gap when it comes to generative ai and what corporations and companies need to do to embed some of the hardware's and software into the systems to create the efficiency needed to we evolve around this revolution in technology. european futures pointing to gains of .4%. s&p flat. s&p futures .1%. ♪ ♪ with so much great entertainment out there... wouldn't it be easier if you could find what you want, all in one place? my favorites.

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tom: good morning, i'm tom mackenzie. 50-50 as investors count down to the fed decision. uncertainty at its highest, intel jumps after a deal to make custom chips while postponing factories. u.s. troops not needed in iraq, our conversation. let's check markets, futures positive after losses yesterday. mixed picture, modest gains,

many holding off until they get clarity tomorrow. european futures point up, ftse adding points and that could play more positive. snp futures are flat. gains of 1/10 of 1%. let's scrutinize the treasury curve at 355. retail sales leader today. two surveys and a data print could be consequential. golds, goldman sachs saying it

moved a little lower. still that the 2700 level. talks with the european commission to carve out a powerful position for france. overseeing efforts after the commissioner resigned, criticizing ursula and a lion. let's get more with oliver crook . what do we know in terms of where things stand? >> that is fair. basically a replacement name,

putting out the names of the commission. what we got is the foreign minister being put forward. acromion way of putting someone younger in the roles. three executive vice presidents and one that would be the commissioner dealing with european competitiveness, a large job. we hope to hear from ursula, who she wants to arrange and the structure, there is a war in ukraine and if there will be a

competitiveness commissioner you need to deal with so many issues. tom: mmm, we will watch that as it of old. what are the other top jobs? >> competitiveness or competition commissioner one of if not the most powerful institution. we saw it she can do, they tax degree to ireland, trade, tech policy and how prominent that will be. she needs to balance the

political parties. in think about inflows and population and get a gender balance in the commission, but does not have the candidates. tom: yeah, oliver crook on the ground, more details and an update later. indeed. let's talk and remain focused on competitiveness with the tech angle and bring in partner and associate director, a digital policy advisor. cohen negotiated the ai act. thank you very much. your views -- this is a commissioner that the french are pushing for with a focus on

closing the gap. with this role, will this help them close the gap? >> it's not about one name, from a ceo perspective this is europe's last chance to catch up. they have been vocal on europe coming a force, catching up with the u.s. and china in terms of cloud in the digital world and this is about pushing the concept and making businesses aware that they need to get going. tom: how wide is the goal between europe and the u.s.?

kiersten: europe has been looking at the one champion we can push but the ai race is not about one technology. from a ceo perspective you need to look at do i have the foundations? 70 percent is about getting people to change and embrace technology and then making money , bringing the value in, not this or that model, creating value is what this is about. tom: there has been scrutiny, what is the ai readiness of corporate europe?

>> i think ceos see that they need to look at this, there are three things to succeed. clear governance, not a couple of use cases and then that catches up with another and maybe they are the same. you need to transform functions with technology. the second thing you really need is risk management and just yesterday a ceo said they are grateful for the ai act because they know what is going on and they can scale proof of concept in short experiments because now they have a risk management system to scale and bring it. the third thing you need is to

bring talent on board and work. tom: i talked to people in tech and they think europe has tied itself in knots, it will stifle capabilities. you pushed back on that presumably. where are we? guest: pushing back because of the experience, worked with 400 companies and most come to a trash hold and then they need that push in terms of levers. i can see it in practice, guidelines and rules is something we see and if we look

globally we see other areas catching up, not always making it easier but a lot of state laws. too early to see who has the best system. tom: where -- where -- where do you stand? the rush to agi could happen within the next decade. are we ready if we have human level intelligence? >> my clients are dealing with other problems creating value, so this is not technology you switch on and see the effect, you need to be creative with the use cases and we are far from general intelligence being

implemented, a lot that companies have to learn. tom: indeed. deep experience on regulation, partner at the boston consulting group. the eu is planning to raise 40 billion euros for ukraine by the end of the year even without u.s. participation after a g7 plan to use assets to help crane. they say the country faces a financing gap next year. updates coming fruit, this was the story last week, unicredit built the holding in commerce bank and francine spoke to the ceo. unicredit reports coming out,

they may ask for authorization to raise its stake in the bank to 30%, they have about 9% now, looking to get authorization to raise that in commerzbank. certainly not ruling out wanting to take over. the tiny newspaper reporting. we will keep across this story and the stocks at 8 a.m. u.k. time. coming up, intel making custom chips for amazon boosting efforts to turn around the chipmaker, the details. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: until shares have jumped almost 8% after saying it will make custom chips. let's bring in robert lee from our intelligence team. not often we have good news but this seems to be significant. a partnership with amazon. talk about implications. guest: nice piece of good news. going back 20 years the business model was idm, companies design chips, fabricate chips and what we have seen is aggregation with

the growth of special companies. tsmc doing foundry. intel and trying to carry on with cost model it is expensive. intel's total headcount exceeds the combined of tsmc and nvidia. growth is tied to the pc market and does not match would it has achieved so there is a challenge. intel needs to develop growth drivers. this move in the foundry business step questions. tom: what does it tell us about

the future? rob: it's we could see a breakup of business. cost heavy business so will they focus on the design? there is a risk that we see a spinoff and the ai field they still are one of the most competent firms, there is potential to drive new growth. significant uncertainty.

tom: thank you. the french telecoms firm is facing pushback. what is at stake for the founder? >> the company has been growing, it has gotten to a point where it has debt with the business not going totally well to a point where we need leverage. tom: ok. how difficult is it to align

investors? >> they have agreed to push back but fine-tuning how much would be acceptable because we have regional lenders, others ok with the exception small haircut and then different approach for the ones with debt there is incentive to drag things on, they want a deal. tom: some complexities.

what are you watching for? >> very important, company has been selling assets but it cannot repay so how much money will go into negotiations. tom: indeed. indeed. let's check on markets, building up to the crucial fed decision, markets split. bill dudley says they should go, european futures are up. ftse looking to add 47 points.

we will focus on the front and yield curve in the u.s. two-year right now is at 355. interesting note on gold, you could see lower prices, still around record highs. goldman sachs reiterating their view. plenty more, stay with us, this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> market has come to the view that 50 basis points is appropriate. tom: that was bill dudley backing a 50 basis points cut the upcoming meeting today. this is where the market is on tenterhooks. in terms of the probabilities based on swaps, based on swaps,

54% chance of 50 basis points. let's flip the board and look at how the changes are coming in driven by bill dudley and he says they will go 50 basis points because policy is restricted, unnecessary given the softness in the labor market. wall street journal reporting, citing the dallas fed president saying i prefer 50. jp morgan says they will go 50. many say 25 basis points. let's flip the board and look at

another story because low rates build into the argument. you should buy the dip on ai, lower rates and fundamental support the ai story. they have a basket of stocks. in includes nvidia and microsoft. they say now is the time to get exposure, plenty more. opening trade, this is bloomberg. ♪

the moment i met him i knew he was my soulmate. "soulmates." soulmate! [giggles] why do you need me? [laughs sarcastically] but then we switched to t-mobile 5g home internet. and now his attention is spent elsewhere. but i'm thinking of her the whole time. that's so much worse. why is that thing in bed with you? this is where it gets the best signal from the cell tower! i've tried everywhere else in the house! there's always a new excuse. well if we got xfinity you wouldn't have to mess around with the connection. therapy's tough, huh? -mmm. it's like a lot about me. [laughs] a home router should never be a home wrecker. oo this is a good book title.

anna: good morning. i'm anna edwards. here is what you need to know. traders increase