a complete life was nowhere near complete. but it is now. quick to learn about adopting a teen at a top u.s. kiss.org. >> i need these items by friday. are you for imprint certain? we are. certainty matters. you need promote your fork gifted clients customers or your team. they have items certain to wow. this is liberty of a cure. the most if you anticipate a fed meeting in years, the delta weakens. they were near a 50-50 split on

a bigger reduction. u.k. inflation data due later today. a closer waiting. plus, a lebanon plains israel for a mysterious exploding attack that killed several people and left him a 3000 winter, raising fears of an escalation. you can almost feel the anticipation there and across these markets as investors hold their breath ahead of that that decision as we have said, the expectation is a cut but the size, the statement will be important and of course the dock plots, the forecast coming through as well. all of that will be scrutinized in terms of the path ahead.

european futures currently down a 10th of a percent. it was a mixed day yesterday on wall street. s&p futures also in similar territory just up by two points at the state. cross asset there. all of this at the front end of the yield curve. all of this since the end of may. you are seeing a little of the yields lower in the session but anticipation of course around that decision. .359 right now on the u.s.. the euro dollar at 111. getting a lift from the softer doll once again. $73 a barrel on brett. we keep our eye on the geopolitics. still near those record levels. sensitive to the right decision.

let's crossover right now. standing by in hong kong for a check on the asian markets. >> it is all about the fed today. even here in asia. they're not doing a whole lot here today. the benchmark is down .2%. the nikkei is struggling to find direction. it was up about 1.3% and now it is somewhat flat and it seems like we are watching begin very closely because we did see the dollar part of the night. we did see the yen reverted back to that downtrend. that filters a little bit through to the equity markets. let's look at the chinese markets. we are coming back after the two days, the three-day public holiday. a lot to catch up on because we did have that very week macro data coming out over the weekend.

it seems like chinese markets would be to badly with that knows. the shanghai comp we are watching very closely if it takes up the lows in march of 2019. it seems like investors are still unclear whether that we did with me more aggressive and -- aggressive stimulus policies. we are watching the 10-year yield of course. all of this despite the pbs he continuing to take measures to stand at the rally. let's flip the board and take a look at the sectors to watch chinese chip stocks rallying up. that is on the back of news that china is claiming to have

breakthroughs when it comes to its semiconductor equipment, taking a step to overcome those u.s. sanctions. >> that is a crucial story. income, thank you very much for the check on the asian market. traders to teach a debate the fed. double line capitals said that he is putting the fed will cut by 50 basis points. this -- it when he five paces cut thing seems i threatened to do. built out 50 is the way to go. here is what j.p. morgan ceo jamie dominic spacs. this is something that is irrelevant. they couldn't do it. it will not be earth shattering. it doesn't mean that much.

i think a great job but it is a minor thing. >> it is just a minor thing. justify cut. mary nichols will raise the yapping to a new level. mary, thank you for joining us. what you make of this debate? 25 or 50 where is the statement in the forecast -- are they going to be more important ultimately weather or nothing at 25 or 50? >> think so. as jimmy time and put it, 25 or 50 basis points doesn't relate matter. i think what matters is how they lay out the future trajectory of where rates are headed. that will be crucial. of course where the dock plots are, remember last time we had the. plus, they were forecasting only one big cut this year. that is august the going to change myself -- but it is about where they're headed. the markets will overextend and get excited that if they are

forecasting to cuts, they're going to go three. there is this oversensitive and over difference of the market for more for cuts. at the same time, the key thing is is where the u.s. econmy is and how it is holding up. yesterday's retail sales data shows the u.s. consumer is holding up white well, they are resilient in the wake of all this. combination of any sort of cuts while the economy is holding up or the well is actually a good thing for u.s. equities. >> we saw some evidence of budgeting in those retail sales. lubricant economics suggests it does make the case for a bigger cut. potentially from the fed. what is the ripple across from the scott we are going to get later today? 25 or 50? for the world of em? >> when it comes down to it, if

you look at some of the bigger sized cuts over the last few cycles, the bigger sized cuts were complete by some sort of weaker data and some sort of signs of a recession coming through from the u.s.. 2007 was a sign of a bigger thing to come. the thing about 2007 was we had the resilience of china which actually bolstered the em and if you recall, we were in the midst of a commodity super cycle as well things to china. the fact i that if there is a slowdown in china which we are already seeing and then we see the u.s. economy slowing down as well, that is a sickening and had for em. but if we see the economy holding up, we are nesting the deterioration demand. that is positive for the emerging markets.

this is for broader equities. stay with bloomberg for continuing coverage of that all the for decision. the special starts at 6:30 p.m., london time today. i ran back has left is accusing israel of orchestrating an attack that killed several people and left almost 3000 wounded across lebanon. a string of medical emergencies reported across the country following the mysterious explosion of thousands of pages. we have more. the festival story remarkable story. what do we know at this point, what are the details? >> absolutely. what we know is that around 3:30 p.m. local time, 3000 of these

held by group members of hezbollah all wet off simultaneously. they exploded simultaneously, resulting in t's of rep 2000 hundred people. nine people including a child were also killed according to the health minister as well. local irony in media saying here any ambassador to lebanon was also hard even though his recuperative appeared there were cavities at hospitals. most of the ones were sustained at the level of the waste. many of the victims would have lost their fingers. they have also been hit in the eyes and hands. very clever scenes being circulated in social media. broad scale attacks.

those were later backed up by comments of the lebanese prime minister. israel themselves have declined to comment. they have a hitting about the attack that took place yesterday but then obviously one of the other questions is why work has the operative using pages in the first place and this goes back to a speech that has built's to commander quebec and fairway where he delivers not to use their levels because of the possibility of them being intercepted. since february the been moving away and for lie more on this basic technology. >> what do we know about how these pages were compromise and pulling in another question as well? how is this likely to impact negotiations on the ground or at least that conflict right now between israel and hamas in

gaza? >> other questions going out of the house could have happened. but it should had just arrived in the last couple of weeks. this raises the possibility that the new pagers themselves have been compromised. we spoke to some cybersecurity experts and they say it is extremely unlikely. the other hypothesis was that the page could have been tempered again. this is a reason for these devices to open, last, it was at points of assembly and what we are this morning was that the tammany's manufacturer behind the technology has denied.

they were asked to put together by a european distributor. still a lot of questions. of course, israel is now on the defensive. we have a new front opening up. this is coming on the heels of israel themselves saying yesterday, netanyahu saying that a new front, the objective has opened up as far as they are concerned and that is that they want to resume the security of the northern border and allow israeli citizens to return back to the north so there is increasing attention on what is happening with the lebanon israel border now. >> thank you very much indeed. here is what we haven't thinking about, switching focus to u.k. economic data. we will get the inflation prince , cpi is unlikely to move the needle. that is the expectation for the boe. that will feed into discussions.

at 10:00 a.m. u.k. time, we will get august cpi's for the final rating of inflation. we will break it for you as well. 7:30 p.m., trumbull, it is that that rate decision and we will have full coverage and analysis of that event. you can get a roundup of the stories you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. the focus on that story around the pages in lebanon and has for the. at tee time on what to expect around the fed. coming up gold edges higher. trading closer to a record high. to what extent is this upside for gold sensitive to moves around the fed? we bring you a breakdown of what is moving. stick with us. ♪

>> welcome back to bloomberg to break your. gold is up around 25% year-to-date. this is for the upcoming fed rate cut and any guidance. go could be volatile.

they still see a target. they are 2700 by the first quarter of next year. for some of the factors driving the upside we have seen in gold, let's bring in that for a deep dive on the element. talk to us about how gold is positioned. >> we are nearly at 2600 we haven't even had a cut yet. whatever the fantasized today will be extremely import. the cup isn't as big as a people in the market are expecting. we have had this shift in the language from fed officials. that is why different to the inflation battle, that topic we have been hearing for the last

two years. that naturally feeds to go. put your banks are expecting them to pilot to this etf. it is one of the easy ways to get exposure to go. we are heading to u.s. election season. i don't have to type i it has always been good gold has been seen as a traditional safe asset. i think some investors really are worried about this.

we wonder if the fed will really pull off the soft landing. that is why some investors are turning to gold. we are seeing the structural support. a lot of strong demand for central banks. that hasn't gone away. there is room for that to grow as well. it is looking for the positive for gold. positioning is pretty long. any dip in the press, we will see investors come back in to buy. >> there is that one position but maybe investors are still on the sideline. what is the outlook for the remainder of the year? >> that cocktail of factors is pretty bullish for gold. i think most pens are looking at numbers similar -- similar to

goldman with that 2700 figure. we even have citibank: for 3000 by mid-2025. goals for the hot right now. >> 3000 by mid-25, yes. >> 3000 by mid-25. projecting out all the way to 2025. in melbourne, thank you for the analysis. they say a 25 basically cut is the right thing to do. that conversation is next. is bloomberg. ♪

>> welcome back to bloomberg

daybreak. happy wednesday. markets are pressing a slip dire that 50% chance of a half-point rate cut by the fed. there's one associates says the overall picture of the u.s. economy warrants a smaller move. quick 25 or 50, it doesn't make a difference. i think that is the problem with the new cycle in all this. they're losing sense of the bigger picture. fed policy. the fed has to keep interest rates high enough to satisfy the creditors so they can get a real return. this would be the right thing if you look at the whole picture. if you look at the market situation which is worse and that affects more people, it is

probably 50 basis points. >> what is the state of the u.s. economy? you're talking about 25 or 50 based on how the economy is doing. from the data we have gotten so far, does it justify 50? >> we have a model for estimating what it should be. the economy right now is very close to an equilibrium level. it would look like there should be a modest easing of interest rates. to or more positively sloped yield curve, what we would call normal is fairly normal. except it is not normal in the way it is so skewed. if we look at the markets where the way the populations income levels are from the very sectors, if you look at the bottom 60%, the politics, the left and the right and the nature of what is going on in the two roles we live in in

terms of economy and the values. >> that was freshwater associates. dario speaking to hussle and almond. now making some news. the biden administration seeks to confront china over alleged industrial overcapacity. the u.s. delegation includes officials from the treasury and from the federal reserve board and will be led by the treasury undersecretary. donald trump says he will revive a state and local tax deduction that he kept -- capped during his first term if he is reelected u.s. president. capping the salt reduction had a disproportionate impact with the regions of higher taxes and property values typically dominated by democrats. the democratic presidential nominee says that she wants to

cap childcare costs for working families at 7% of their income. it is the first time harris has spoken publicly about the initiative as she seeks to assure voters a harris white house would address cost-of-living concerns. we continue to cover the unfolding u.s. election contest leading up to november. let's check in on the markets because the focus today front and center -- will there be adjustments certificate? the de prez signal 24 all the way to 20 37. let's put the boards. let's look at the asset classes,

investors were largely sitting on the sidelines until we get clarity on that rate decision coming through this evening, u.k. time. a lot of money is being moved into u.s. treasuries. two-year yields coming down just one basis point, 359. our treasuries looking a little too rich right now? largely unchanged in the session. coming up, the bank of england will decide on rates tomorrow. prior to that, we will get inflation at u.k.. we will set you up with what to expec the moment i met him i knew he was my soulmate. "soulmates." soulmate! [giggles] why do you need me? [laughs sarcastically] but then we switched to t-mobile 5g home internet. and now his attention is spent elsewhere. but i'm thinking of her the whole time. that's so much worse. why is that thing in bed with you? this is where it gets the best signal from the cell tower! i've tried everywhere else in the house! there's always a new excuse. well if we got xfinity

you wouldn't have to mess around with the connection. therapy's tough, huh? -mmm. it's like a lot about me. [laughs] a home router should never be a home wrecker. oo this is a good book title.

♪ tom: good morning. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe."

i am tom mackenzie in london. these are the stories that set your agenda. the most eagerly anticipated fed meeting in years. the dollar weakens as traders debate the size of today's rate cut with a near 50-50 split on a bigger reduction. u.k. inflation data due later today 7:00 a.m. effect, a crucial reading before the bank of england's own rate decision tomorrow. lebanon blames israel for a mysterious exploding pager attack that killed several people and left almost 3000 wounded, raising fears of an escalation in the region. let's check in on these markets as investors wait, of course, with bated breath. you can almost cut the tension with a knife leading up to this fed decision, fully expected to cut. the size of the cut important as will be the statement from the fomc and the revised forecast, or dot plot, as they push out with their views all the way to

2027. ftse 100 futures leading to the cpi print, currently down 0.3%. s&p futures currently flat, nasdaq futures as well flat as a pancake, pointing up just three points at this stage. let's look at u.s. treasuries, the dollar and gold right now, flip the board with a focus on the oil space. you saw a move higher in oil on the back of the news out of the middle east, that has since ebbed a little lower. on the front end of the yield curve, the focus on the two -year, the sensitivity to this expected rate cut. yields down 40 basis points since the end of may. money has moved in. euro-dollar getting a bit of a bid on the back of softer dollar. gold at 2566, close to those record highs. the fed is widely expected to lower rates today, but by how

much is the question. at least for many out there. markets pricing in more than a 50% chance of a half-point rate cut. garfield reynolds leads are market live coverage in asia. for you and the team, where is the focus? if you had to choose one, would it be the decision around 25 or 50, would it be the statement, or would it be the revisions, the forecast, the dot plots? garfield: i think in many ways it is the decision for 25 or 50. if it comes to the dot plots on the rest of it that's going to come in the context of if they go 25 basis points, which a lot of people think that would make more sense considering what is still a fairly robust looking comey, if -- looking economy, if they do that, that's going to face an enormous amount of pushback from the market. you cannot kind of imagine a world where they cut by 25 but

they showed they are open to cutting by more in the not-too-distant future so that reassures markets, i am not buying that. if they cut by 25 rather than by 50, they have to sell the message that, you know, look, we see a soft landing coming and we are on target for it, we don't see the need for 50 basis points. that's going to be a real shock for markets, rate markets at least. they are busy pricing for not just one 50 basis point cut but two of them over the four meetings through to january. they see a very strong pace. and in fact, the way that the market is set up, they're basically saying if the fed only cuts 25 basis points today, then they will have to cut 50 in november. if the fed was going to cut by 50 at some stage, it would cut now. that sets up that conflict

between the market and the fed if it goes 25. if it goes 50, there will be some focus on what the statement says, how much danger there is out there of a recession. but that's going to be ultimately i would imagine, i will probably be wrong the way all this has been going on, but if they cut 50 there is less likely to be a lot of turmoil, at least in the initial post-fed , you know, market setting. tom: i wonder if they were to go 50 whether there would be turmoil in japanese equity markets or whether that is already being priced in. that takes me to a question about the dollar, garfield. what is the dollar pricing in? we are seeing another down day for the greenback. garfield: yeah, although, the greenback had a bit of a bounce yesterday. i think the greenback is a little bit more finely balanced in a lot of ways than the treasury markets are. that's partly because the

greenback, there is influence of, you know, what goes on outside of the shores of the u.s. i think there is a fairly strong anticipation that if the fed does go 50 basis points, that's going to free a lot of other central banks to go harder. and it might also, for example, talk about japan, i would think that would be a spur for ueda to be more circumspect about any hawkishness that the boj might feel. because i don't really think the boj wants to see the yen motoring down towards 135 per dollar in the short-term. they would also argua be taking a lookbly -- arguably taking a look at what is going on after the fed move and to what extent a stronger yen is a headwind for their efforts to, you know to rein in the japanese economy. to what extent what is going on

with the end ends up acting for or against what they want to do with rates. tom: garfield reynolds, who leads our markets live coverage in asia, with a reminder of the global ramifications of this fed decision later today and certainly japanese assets are sensitive to that. thank you for the set up. coming up later, a bloomberg surveillance special, it is the fed decides. catch that programming 6:30 p.m. london time. after the fed decides, attention will turn to the bank of england. the hold is widely expected when it meets tomorrow, defying pressure from investors calling for more aggressive action. would it be key to the decision, would be u.k. inflation data do in the next half hour or so? lizzy burden is with me for the details. talk to us about the inflation print. is icky really or has -- is it key or has the decision already been made? ? could inflation data really move the dial? lizzy: i would say a downside

surprise on inflation and a 50 basis point cut from the fed could move the dial for the bank of england. at the moment, economists and markets do not expect the bank of england to do anything but hold. some strategists are warning because of the growth risks, the boe needs to step up monetary action but that's not the general consensus. you can see on the screen the expectations for these inflation numbers. at the headline level, it seems staying at two point. 2% in. august but at the core and services -- 2.2% in august. but at the core and services level, it is seen rising. that services spike is likely to come down to base affects, volatile airfares, hotel prices again. the boe come of course, penciled 5.8% -- the boe, of course, penciled 5.8% before it cut rates before. there is a high amount of wiggle room. what could really move the dial is the fed. if it goes for 50 basis points, you have seen traders stepping up their bets for a move from

the bank of england tomorrow. a 50 basis point cut would do more on this because it comes back. it is already near its 2023 high, it would give the boe a hard time avoiding moving because a stronger pound would act as a bigger break. tom: softer inflation today could move the dial on the boe. we will see how that unfolds. the truth of the services story is the globetrotting of lizzy burden. u.k. correspondent lizzy burden breaking down what to expect with u.k. inflation and how that ties into the boe decision tomorrow. ursula von der leyen has drawn the battle lines, and the political sense for her second term in office, unveiling a top team which she hopes will make the eu more competitive. than up includes key roles for commissioners from france -- the new lineup includes quiroz for commissioners from france,

spain. take us through the lineup, who holds the keys to power right now? oliver: as you mentioned, there is so many rules, so much information we got out. we really have to cut through the noise. who holds the power? the eu and all politics really is about the stick and carrot. the main takeaway is the nominee from spain, which was given this sort of new commission wishes both competition, i.e., the old one held, already one of the most powerful institutions in the eu, particularly on the stick front because this commission kindle out billions and billions that can door out -- this commission can dole out billions and billions in terms of fines. really the sort of anchor of the draghi report trying to get europe to be more competitive and doing so, and again, this is part of her background as a commissioner and having worked in spain, and a carbon neutral

way. that really brings together a lot of portfolios a lot of, arguably maybe too many. attached to that also is you're are going to have from france the former foreign minister from france, the last minute swap out to give a little bit. more power to france. we understand macron did that. this is sort of the competitiveness but looking at the banking side trying to spur prosperity. we also got from italy, this is the cohesion policy, sounds a bit abstract. we talk about sticks and carrots, this is a job that went to the italians. the reason this is significant because we have 400 billion euros worth of money and budget that goes and is dispersed by this to deal with cohesion within europe, but also development within europe. from estonia, the foreign minister, we know about that for weeks to come. the next steps is they were

deliberate in parliament, they may send a couple of these names back at a certain point but then they vote. they are hoping to get all of this new government in place by november 1. tom: it's not yet signed and sealed. there is are you be less cohesion across europe right now, at least in some spaces, then there has been for a long time. how has ursula von der leyen structured this set up? oliver: she has changed this whole set up. there were previously executive vice president, vice president then commissioners. she said no more vice presidents, we are doing executive vice president's. instead of three, there are now six. she did not get all of the female nominees that she wanted. four of these six roles are held by women, though the skew is mostly male. she has given more power to the fewer women going into these new jobs. what is interesting is that's the structure. there's also a spirit

behind this, what she wants to be the fundamental spirit of this is the draghi report and competitiveness. it's going to be the french and spanish working together, as we have mentioned a little bit earlier, but also within the structure, what's interesting, there is still a job for trade that reports directly to ursula von der leyen. that will be held by the man who previously held the green new deal job, also about economy prosperity and simplification of the eu. that will go to dombrowski. that will report directly to ursula von der leyen. at the center of this commission is getting europe competitive so it basically does not, as draghi has warned, sleepwalk itself into obsolescence. tom: oliver crook in berlin, nobody does it better in terms of breaking down european politics and how it sets things up. to other stories making the news this wednesday. the german finance ministry is still planning to sell off its

entire stake in commerzbank, despite the surprise move by italy's unicredit to buy all the shares offered last week. an influential labor union has put pressure on the german government to prevent a takeover by unicredit but we understand germany intends to sell its stake at the best possible price, even if that means unicredit buys more shares. bloomberg understands continental is pushing ahead with preparations for a spinoff of its struggling car parts business. sources say the german company has invited investment banks to pitch for a role on the planned listing. continental shares pleasure last week after bmw disclosed the spiraling cost of a recoil affecting debt recall affecting 1.5 million vehicles due to fault with their continental braking systems. coming up, after bitcoin's biggest intraday gain in more than a month, we are live at the token 2049 conference in singapore. would have attendees been saying about the trump trade around --

what have attendees been saying about the trump trade around crypto? stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ tom: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." bitcoin has pared a rally that was spurred by expectations of that fed rate cut coming later today. the largest digital currency trade made its biggest intraday gain in more than a month. let's get more with bloomberg's annabelle droulers, who joins us from the token 2049 conference in singapore, speaking to a number of the big movers and shakers within the crypto space. what other general themes of this conference -- what are the general themes of this conference? annabelle: this is the b iggest cryptocurrency event of

the year that takes place in asia. this event, there is a climbing wall behind me, there's people lining up to see the icon fabia navarro. it feels like we are in a club here. it points to the level we are hearing on the ground. it is an indication that within crypto, it has been an thing within that -- but that bull case. there was that optimism that came of the back of spot crypto etf's launching. we've seen projects behind tokenization, ai, giving. nothing has really stuck just get. at the same time is the question of what is the macro doing? this is the talking point now. if we see that move, 25, 50 basis points, does that start to drive demand for speculative assets again and will that bring investors back into the space? tom: trump has been leaning into the crypto space, in a big way.

him and his team have been pushing into bitcoin, they have been trying to make a play clearly for those who have assets and exposure to crypto. is the u.s. election having an impact? is it being discussed? are people talking trump and crypto? annabelle: absolutely. of course, president trump is seen as someone who has been a lot more friendly to this space. when you think about what's happened over the past few years, and really, i mean, the understanding or the feeling i guess by many in the crypto community is that president biden's administration has not been overly supportive. we have not really seen any regulatory clarity coming through in the u.s. and that's what would really drive institutional adoption. at the same time, you got kamala harris and some of the expectations about what should. anthony scaramucci is here, on opponent of harris becoming the next president. he is saying she would have some

pragmatic approach. most in the crypto industry would say president trump one back into the white house once again would be a more positive move for the sector. in the past, of course, he has said that bitcoin was a scam against the dollar, but he has surly changed his tune. we have seen him at crypto events, is licensed his image to nft's. this week, the trump family announced a new decentralized, or defi project, in the works as well. he is saying he wants to put the u.s. as the crypto capital of the world. certainly a lot of eyeballs on the results of the u.s. election and really just a few weeks from now. tom: what are we hearing about the fundraising environment? i wonder if that is being shaped around expectations around trump. is the fundraising around crypto starting to pick up? what are you hearing from investors? annabelle: fundraising is an interesting one because they are certainly being challenged.

there was a lot of capital being raised a couple of years ago, it was also been deployed. that has certain changed somewhat. i've spoken to a couple of different vc's here today and what i am hearing is the environment is starting to improve. when you think about evaluations, what i am hearing is for later stage projects, the valuations are still quite distressed, so i significant drop. early stage once, the valuations are sounding quite frothy, some quite optimistic price tags in that part of the market. it just points back to those areas that are really getting more interest, things around tokenization, gaming, artificial intelligence. that big question of digital identity, would that be helpful in the ai world and a world where you've got a giant proliferation of different image and content through generated ai. certainly some of the different

talking points but fundraising is certainly one to watch. tom: ok. bloomberg's annabelle droulers on the ground at the token 2049 conference in singapore, and a finger on the pulse of the crypto space. thank you. we are going to break down where we stand in terms of expectations between economists and investors around where the fed goes. 25 or 50? just a reminder of the restrictive nature of rates right now, certainly a case that bill dudley has been making. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> 25 or 50, it does not make a difference. i think that's a problem with the news cycle and all of this, they are losing sense of the bigger picture. 25 basis points would be the right thing to do if you look at the whole picture as a whole. if you look at the mortgage

situation, which is worse on that affects more people, then it's probably 50 basis point. tom: bridgewater associates' ray dalio speaking to us on the sideline of the milken asia summit. says that's a business tv news obsession. jamie dimon saying it does not matter, 25 or 50, maybe because you don't have mortgages. certainly if you have a mortgage, it matters. there is a split between economists and traders as to whether or not you go 25 or 50. if you care about the tony five or 50, economists overwhelmingly expect a smaller cut, 25 basis points, just nine out of the number surveyed. nine expect 50. 104 expects 25 basis points. the vast majority of economists expect a 25 basis point cut. a very different view coming through from traders. you're effectively split 50-50 as to whether you go 25 or 50.

traders have adjusted, of course, over the last seven days or so. some of that coming from what we have heard from the likes of bill dudley, jamie dimon, wall street traders as well. traders have upped their bets on 50, economist holding the line at 35. you have had a year now -- holding the line in 25. you have had a year now with rates set at 550, 533 from the federal reserve. let's show you where we are on rates and the essential nature of the tightness we see. this is something bill dudley reflected on in terms of the tight nature of monetary policy right now. he makes the case that they should go 50 at this meeting. this takes you back and shows where we are in the context of other hiking cycles. the histories that we have seen of course in about two decades. coming up later, a bloomberg surveillance special, the fed decides. you can catch that 6:30 p.m. london time. that is when you do not want to miss. tonight, bloomberg is proud to

celebrate the premier of the 10th season of the david rubenstein show. it kicks off tonight with the president and cofounder of stripe. the opening trade is up next. we are going to be setting you up again with the details, that analysis about what to expect from the fed. the dot plots will be in focus, the forecasts. we will bring you smart analysis on how to position. as we are thinking about this federal reserve, we also break inflation data out of the u.k. that drops in about three minutes and could tie interviews around the boe. no opening trade is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

the moment i met him i knew he was my soulmate. "soulmates." soulmate! [giggles] why do you need me? [laughs sarcastically] but then we switched to t-mobile 5g home internet. and now his attention is spent elsewhere. but i'm thinking of her the whole time. that's so much worse. why is that thing in bed with you? this is where it gets the best signal from the cell tower! i've tried everywhere else in the house! there's always a new excuse. well if we got xfinity you wouldn't have to mess around with the connection. therapy's tough, huh? -mmm. it's like a lot about me. [laughs] a home router should never be a home wrecker. oo this is a good book title.

guy: i'm guy johnson. 25 or 50, the fed will decide.