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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Europe  Bloomberg  September 24, 2024 1:00am-2:00am EDT

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>> this is daybreak europe and i am tom mackenzie in london. these are the stories that set your agenda. china goes big.
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and the pboc unleashes unprecedented support for the economy including a rate cut and measures to prop up the housing market. now it's political. italian and german leaders square off in the struggle for commerzbank after it becomes the german bank's larger shareholder. and a major escalation between israel and hezbollah. israeli airstrikes killed nearly 500 people across southern lebanon in one of the deadliest days of fighting in 20 years. >> >> let's check in on the markets. trying to put a floor under the
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pressure that has rippled across the equity markets of china and hammered the consumer and that is the market story of the moment as we came in i on the geopolitics and focus on the middle east. the ftse 100 and the u.k. looking to add 23 points. look at the commodity sector and basic resources. that will tie into the u.k. session and u.k. futures are currently flat getting close to record levels. the nasdaq 100 futures looking to just two points. the focus on the front end when it comes to the treasury given the commentary we have heard from a number of fed officials. goolsby suggesting a number of additional cuts could be coming through and we have also got a business sentiment index coming through from the u.s. suggesting strength is still there. and input prices rose to the
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highest levels in around six months. and we will be getting more this week. euro-dollar at 111. do not forget the soft data we got out of the euro zone. think about the demand impulse from china and also that escalation in the conflict between israel and hezbollah. iron ore getting a big lift on the back of the stimulus measures out of china. for more in terms of the market reaction let's go to tonya in hong kong. >> that stimulus blitz is finally here long awaited the investors in asia so let me take you quickly into stock market action. we have come off a lunch break and you are seeing the csi 300 one of the worst beating down markets this year and it looks like it's a welcome change on the shares here. it was up as much as 4% in over
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200 companies on the gauge all rallying. if you look over at that, they were heading towards the seven psychological level. looks like the sentiment is helping to boost the currency. we know it is one psychological level keenly watched by exporters. looking for repatriation flows to juice the currency. and if you look at the 10 year earlier in the session we have seen the yields drive lower towards 2% a historic low, the lowest since we have been tracking that data since 2002 but given the risk appetite and risk on sentiment analysts are getting lifted by the stimulus cocktail. we saw that most in the 30 year ended rose at one point by four basis points and that is the most we have seen in six weeks when the policymakers were first intervening into the market
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there guiding state banks around selling certain securities and i will take you into the rba. it was a hawkish hold. all economists had expected this. still holding onto the gains, up almost .4%. outlook is unclear and slightly off from the other central banks we have seen because inflation seems to be persistent for the policymakers. >> a check on the markets and a reaction across asset classes to this decision to push through more support and a check of the rba. and let's get more details in terms of what's come through from beijing. unleashing a raft of policy support as the government makes the broadest effort yet to hit the growth target of about 5%.
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>> we will cut the required reserve ratio and policy rate and guide the market benchmark rate downward. and we will lower the mortgage rate for existing housing loans and unify the minimum down payment ratio one third and establish new monetary policy tools to support the stability and development of the stock market. >> who better to give perspective and analysis than bloomberg's chief north asia correspondent who has followed the chinese economy and what has transpired. frame this in terms of the significance and the key policy measures that have been announced today. >> it is significant and bigger than what most had expected. we got that note that they would be giving some sort of press conference with the central bank governor and we knew it was likely going to be a monetary move.
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and we did not realize it was going to be some monetary easing as far as the seven day reverse repo and the second cut since july cutting further the reverse requirement of banks in the amount they have to hold off in reserve. it was him who lasted an emergency press conference in january earlier this year that they did that first cut but the moves went even further. is he just mentioned about the mortgage relief for existing homeowners. those rates being cut as well as down payment requirements for new home purchases. that rescue package on the property sector that was revealed in may petered out because it was a huge ask of state owned enterprises in the provinces to buy up unsold and unoccupied homes. this is more tangible and basically opening the tabs of liquidity and reducing the burden of households who have
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lost $18 trillion in paper wealth so it's the beginning of trying to put a floor on the obvious property was but also there was more that they and others had talked about. the possibility of a stock stabilization fund and since that rescue package in may the csi 300 and china is down 13% in stocks are rallying. they will unleash about 113 billion u.s. dollars potentially for companies to tap funds available at the pboc to buy stocks and this is showing the urgency the stock market is suffering and the property market is suffering. inflation has been persistent for nearly two years and they have only two months left in the year to hit the growth target of around 5% gdp growth.
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>> the equity markets are responding and responding aggressively. >> you told us they overdeliver. >> what has been the reaction from analysts and economists we have been hearing from around the policy response and whether they think the optimism we are seeing in the markets will trickle down to the real economy. >> that optimism has petered out in the past because some of the policy moves they have done has been piecemeal. and it's fine to bring out a big bazooka. it does not matter how big the gun is it has to hit the target. so that is what we will have to see, whether these moves will be on target. most of the analysts are saying this is a great first weapon to roll out of the arsenal. a multiple pronged approach year but without fiscal stimulus it might be tough to be sustainable.
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they already have some long-term special bonds. the quotas are still available there. and i think they will let those be served and then perhaps we could get some more fiscal stimulus and help at the provincial level to have some tangible spending going on and help with that deflationary environment and essentially the confidence level. this is a confidence boosting move by the pboc as well as the csrc. >> really helpful context. thank you very much indeed. >> let's switch focus to a major corporate story continuing to ripple through europe. diplomatic relations between italy and germany have taken a turn for the worse after unicredit moved to increase its stake in commerzbank. the lender said it used derivatives to increase ownership to 21% making it the biggest shareholder.
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in the german chancellor says it's a hostile takeover but that's been rejected by italy. and oliver joins us from berlin now >> the speed of what the approach has been has been remarkable. >> this is been a spectacular story and i want to take you through the only 10 trading days we have had this approach really began in the began here just before all this action became public where we saw in the private market that they were in their buying shares in the public market of commerzbank and on the 10th the ceo said he will not renew his contract and will depart and it becomes public because him and unicredit knew the german government would offload their stake into the market and they bought the full stake with the fill or kill order and it comes out they own
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90% of the bank. this caught everyone off guard and scrambling for what to do. you had deutsche bank deciding to say there will be things we can do to impair them from going into this company and taking it over and we spoke to him himself and amid this confusion and we asked him what is your plan with commerzbank and you should have a listen. >> we want the flexibility because as a private investor you may go up or down and things may combine. all the options are on the table. >> commerzbank was preparing a defense. they hired goldman sachs to of what to advise and we heard that things got quiet and going into the weekend they basically said we are not in favor of this happening. they were diplomatic about saying it so going into the weekend you have this phenomenon
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where we close here and open on monday sounding like the deal is dead. halfway through the day, we hear they have bought derivatives stone 21% of commerzbank. these are rights he can exercise and come into that ownership because currently they don't have the regulator approval to own more than nine point 9% but that send the political machine into a frenzy. we had olaf scholz trying to deal with global diplomatic relations having to deal with this question saying unfriendly attacks and hostile takeovers are not a good thing for banking. we don't consider this to be an appropriate course of action. shares came plummeting back down. i suspect we have not heard the last from andre. >> md. we will listen to what the ceo has to say. you talked about the diplomacy
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or lack of diplomacy. the gloves seem to be coming off from both sides, the germans and italians. >> this is interesting. it's a massive domestic story. so we have not heard a lot from our the shareholders. commerzbank saying they are examining all options. they are holding a meeting today and tomorrow outside of frankfurt to propose what their plans are to the supervisory board. you have to imagine the only thing to talk about is this approach by unicredit. the unions are putting huge political pressure on. we will have a press conference later today. the german government, what happened here? they are probing their own sale of their stake in commerzbank to unicredit. as you going to the german politics domestically, it's huge. we have on the one hand the afd, a very nationalist party, and these are the nationalist pressures you have and they say
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we want to defend our -- saying this is a disaster for the sector and now the geopolitical dimension. you have italy very unhappy about the fact that when they say you come into italy to buy a company and it's no problem but when you go to germany it's no longer a free market. i think that's why this is so critical. you have ambiguity and politicians discussing ways to make europe more competitive. they talk about bank mergers. that has huge implications for europe. >> the ripple effects of this potential takeover are significant.
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>> brilliant breakdown. thinking about the implications more broadly. and we will continue to follow that. >> thinking of germany and the challenges around that economy with germany and the banking sector just one part of it. we have seen the data out of germany continue to soften. we saw that in manufacturing and services. but will that tell us about the sentiment at this crucial and challenging time. we switch focus to the u.s. consumer confidence. you can tie that to the labor market. we know that they are increasingly concerned and say the focus should be on the labor market. the consumer data should be consequential as well.
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when it comes to oil production, nigeria's rate decision is later. we have had an exclusive conversation with africa's richest person. we will be speaking and hearing from them in the next few minutes on this show. you can get around up of what you need to know. subscribers can go to the da why bigo on the terminal. switching focus and coming up after the break, israeli airstrikes on targets across southern lebanon kill nearly 500 people in a major escalation. more on the rising middle east tensions next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> israel has launched airstrikes across southern lebanon killing never -- nearly 500 people. the u.s. says it is sending a small number of additional troops to the middle east and is urging restraint as fears of war grow. joumanna bercetche joins me in the london studio. >> yesterday was the deadliest strike on lebanon since the beginning of the war and october 7 but also the deadliest day since the 2006 war that lasted more than a month >> is really military strike nearly 1300 across the region. the lebanese health ministry said almost 500 people had been killed including 58 women and 35 children. israel says that many of those killed were members of the lebanese military.
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the group said they placed lot rocket launchers in people's private homes and many residents across the country receive messages from the idea warning them to leave the residence -- residences. and in lebanon there are no bond shelters so people do not know where to go and what you saw was a massive traffic jam from the southern part of the country to beirut. a lot of panic and fear about what was happening. and lebanon has not seen a day like this in 20 years now. and throughout the course of the day has below launched rockets into northern haifa. sirens were going off, most intercepted. if you listen to the language, it does not appear that either side will -- >> what is the diplomacy? >> the u.s. are pushing hard for a diplomatic solution. the lebanese prime minister canceled his trip.
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the israeli prime minister will still be heading there towards the end of the week, but a shorter trip than had been in since abated. he will be addressing the u.n. later in the week. at this point, many are saying the diplomatic channels don't seem to be working, and if they had worked, you would not have seen an escalation of this sort that has happened in the last week on the lebanon-israel front. many are saying as well that israel had been looking to escalate to de-escalate a given has below is -- de-escalate but given has below's response that seems unlikely. >> could be a pivotal moment for that region. joumanna bercetche. africa's richest person says it is time for nigeria to end fuel subsidies. we will bring you some of our exclusive conversation next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> a nigerian billionaire says the time is right for the nation to end a subsidy on fuel. dangote spoke to bloomberg exclusively. >> subsidies, i believe the problem is not only the subsidy. people will be brought in and the government will end up paying with their not supposed to be paying, but this refinery will bring quite a lot of issues out there. it will show the real consumption of nigeria, because nobody can tell you. some say it is 60 million leaders. some say it's less. but right now, if you look at it, everything can be counted,
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so everything can be accounted for and most of the trucks or ships will -- we will put a tracker on them to be sure they are going to take the oil within nigeria and that i think can help the government save quite a lot of money. >> do you think it's the right time to get rid of the subsidies? >> i think it is. countries have gotten rid of subsidies. let me give you an example. saudi arabia used to give the citizens -- look, oil is our own god-given gift, so the government should not charges. they were setting it at a very low price. but today, as we speak, gasoline is about 40% cheaper in nigeria than in saudi arabia, which i think does not make sense. number two, the price of
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gasoline is about 60% of the price of our neighboring countries, and we have very porous borders, so it is not sustainable. the amount of subsidies that are paid, the government cannot afford those subsidies. >> do you need the government to take away the subsidies for your refinery to be viable? >> we have a choice. we export, produce, sell locally. we are a private company. it's true. we have to make a profit. so definitely we have to make money. the removal of subsidies is totally dependent on the government, not on us. we cannot change our price. i think the government will have to give up something for something, you know. at the end of the day, the
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subsidy will help. >> that was the dangote group founder and chairman, dangote, speaking to francine lacqua. , coming up next the u.k. government tries to change the tone on the economy as it holds its annual conference, the labour party's annual conference. we will have the details on that as well. checking in on futures as markets way the stimulus from china. euro futures higher by .5%, he was futures just hanging onto the green. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ♪ with so much great entertainment out there... wouldn't it be easier if you could find what you want, all in one place?
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tom: good morning, i'm tom mackenzie. chinese stocks rise after unprecedented support including a rate cut. israeli airstrikes kill 500 people across lebanon in one of the deadliest days of fighting and keir starmer, can the u.k. prime minister reset the seeing gains at the highest level since march of 2022. best day since march on the
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economy. let's check in with a focus, european futures pointing higher on the back of objections. a ripple across to european markets. ftse up after grinding out gains close to record highs, currently flat. a ripple across is being felt. s&p futures after grinding out gains close to record highs. nasdaq futures are similar. let's look across assets.
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euro-dollar at 111. brent crude at 74 .72. geopolitics in focus. and iron is rallying almost 6%. check that sector when they start trading. strong session in terms of pricing. copper also up. fed officials have been giving some details in terms of how they are thinking given the 50 basis point cut. leaving the door open, austan goolsbee says he estimates the benchmark is hundreds of basis points above neutral. austan goolsbee: if conditions continue, there are a lot of cuts over the next 12 months. whether the next one is 20 -- 25
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for 50 or zero, over the next 12 months we have a long way to come down to get the interest rate to something like neutral to try to hold conditions where they are. >> ok, let's get more from paul dobson standing by. it was all about fomc officials and comments about the next steps for the federal reserve. do we have clarity? talk about the market reaction. paul: good morning. we have clarity, pools be the most dovish we have -- austan goolsbee the most dovish we have
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, needing to go further. some are wary over inflation and we have seen shock and pressure. while all those comments last night left the door open for a bigger cut none said that is where they want to go so will we get cut? market does not know. still looking for one more aggressive cut, not sure when. supportive of equity markets, they dribbled higher. most likely after chinese stimulus, that helped the fed, open the door to be more
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aggressive. tom: indeed. officials in beijing given space to move. what do you make out of the rally in chinese equities? will this be sustained? paul: market did not jump on this with open arms. quite skeptical, took quite a long time to build momentum, market is shy. not wanting to buy in until they are convinced this will deliver. rrr cut on both of these.
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extra measures including buybacks and leverage. cuts in the mortgages, lots for people to be excited about. coherent and consistent as well. that is why market schemes momentum. longer term yields are back up. this will help recovery. maybe it will not propel things, but will give extra support. tom: indeed.
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to the u.k. where the chancellor struck optimistic tone to the labour party conference promising no return to austerity despite a hole in the finances. >> we will publish our plans for britain. driving in shaping long-term growth to create jobs and deliver prosperity, break down barriers to net zero and build prosperity. >> are u.k. correspondent lizzy burden is in liverpool.
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the way some would characterize this is we went from a hyperbole to the doom and gloom of the labor government. has the chancellor shifted the mood? lizzie: what business wants is detail and the lack of it has created a vacuum filled by stories about infighting. we heard it was policy lights but the details instead it is recognizing benefits.
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they will be taken with the books and she needs to crowded him him him him him -- it would come on top of the 4 billion pounds from the bank of england decision on quantitative tightening. potentially important for growing the economy and we will hear from the prime minister later, underscoring the key mission but there will need to
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be tough decisions. doom and gloom is weighing on public sentiment. six out of 10 britons are not happy. can we turn that around? tom: lizzie, thank you. economic reforms have led to the highest wage increase in 40 free years. prime minister spoke at a forum. >> i have worked on full range of economic policies during the past three years. the positive results of these initiatives, in a wide range of
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data, including the highest wage increase in 33 years. asset management program will be launched by leading asset management companies october 3 in tokyo. the work is still in progress. tom: now to some other stories for at least one other story. trump says his first call will be to xi jinping accusing beijing to fail an agreement in exchange for increasing purchases including agricultural goods. the u.s. presidential race has seen a vow to take a tough
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stocks. i will be joined by the ceo of neco health which launched a full body scan. stay with us for that conversation up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> a full body scan launched in the u.k. has more than 25,000 people signed up. the founder joins me in the studio at a busy time for the team. the u.k. is your first expansion
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beyond sweden. >> u.k. for us is not just launch in u.k., it is launching our global launch. you will find person from every walk of life, all major hospital chains in london. if this can work here and there is big demand we feel confident that there is big market for us. tom: what has the response been? can sign-ups be sustained? >> response has been unbelievable. we have sold out 25,000 people and spent zero in marketing so there is incredible hunger for something different.
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people want to take care about themselves and their bodies. it just keeps going. our biggest problem is how can we serve people. we launch first in sweden. exactly the same experience. tens of thousands of people have joined our waitlist everywhere you have the same challenges. costs are spiraling, we cannot staff the system and the patient experience is deteriorating. this is not because someone is doing anything wrong so we have
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a system, something is fundamentally wrong. health care costs are tied to chronic disease but you don't see the doctor when you are sick. the future can be better. there is a lot of doom and gloom but by 2040 or 2050 the health care system will be driven by data. that will lead us to health care system that is more human, more humane, helping people on a personal level. tom: daniel -- daniel, the
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founder of spotify, you talked about access. for many people that will be a price they can afford. how do you get the balance right ? are you making a profit? >> we want to contribute in a way that can benefit everyone. we have no subsidies which is why we have the price that we have in value is as good or better as fancy services. it's important to have longevity so our services have a clear path to profitability generating
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revenue but we can reinvest. running six different studies so trying to contribute with medical knowledge. and then the data is also part of that. someone needs to collect the data and that is what we are doing. tom: where does the u.s. it for you? >> i had 25,000 people sign up so we are making sure we serve them right. we have global ambitions so we want to go all the biggest markets but our focus is customers here. tom: people will have blood tests flashbacks to theranos.
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how do you cross that concern? >> we are transparent and we have been reviewed and all of that in a completely different jurisdiction, does not interface with work we do but plays a role , consumers ask and care about it. tom: we talk about the track record to profitability. talk about funding plans. are you raising more? were you thinking about ipo plans? >> daniel is a long-term thinker. he is not looking for an exit, he wants to have a great impact which gives us longevity.
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last year we were fortunate to get the best investors in europe so the company is well-funded but we have global ambitions so we will raise money. tom: indeed. the ceo and cofounder of neco health. let's check back in with a lens on china. policy announcements from the people's bank and the benchmark is up, best day chinese stocks have had since 2022 so the question is will they be
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sustained? hsi is up. aggressive rally. stay with us, this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: ok. let's check in on a key trade, tuesday 10 this inversion trade on the back of the 50 basis point cut. does it continue? by proxies further cuts.
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this inversion trade is there but do you lock in or lien in? jp morgan says lock the prophets in. as we waive the commentary and reflect the s&p is close to record highs, in terms of net futures short positions they are now at the highest levels are so there is caution. let's flip the board because today is a phenomenal day. biggest gains for the benchmark
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since march of 2022. still set for a fourth straight year of losses or does the policy get backed up and keep the rally going? maybe a sustained turnaround for investors. we will speak to a ceo on how france's environment is weighing on the trade but this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ ♪
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>> good morning, i'm anna edwards one hour away from opening trade. chinese stocks

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