>> i'm tom mackenzie. china's stocks soar, iran's

president tells the news that attacks will not go unanswered. urges the west to resume talks. the top job at commerzbank as it is the first woman to lead it in its history. ♪ let's check in on the markets. 41st record despite the fact that u.s. confidence fell,

biggest drop since in about three years. concerns about the labor market from the fed, markets ramping up the bets, additional cuts include a 50 jumbo. european central bank, markets that october is in play. 60% chance of cuts. european stocks taking a breather, lower, and the ftse is down. s&p futures looking down. 41st record high yesterday. nasdaq lower, nvidia with strong

gains, profit-taking across the index. for debord, we will talk about data suggesting additional cuts, u.s. two-year is sensitive. move of close to two basis points. the bloomberg dollar index wiping out gains, unchanged for the year. brent, what a pop for oil, chinese stimulus and tensions hold at $75 a barrel.

gold at record levels. the yellow metal that is fitting from further cuts. let's cross over to hong kong. china front and center. julie, what are you looking at? julie: all eyes are on china after the big stimulus package. when the policymakers are trying to boost stock markets, if you've seen china's index, index is up more than 3%. and back in hong kong we have seen hang seng index almost rise to highest high year to date.

all those rallies in hong kong and china are pushing msci asia-pacific index the highest in more than two years. really promising based on investors being bullish and boosting capital markets. in particular we have seen like the chinese property developers and technology companies leading the show. like the bloomberg gauge tracking the property, property, property stocks gauge up more than 20% entering a technical bull market in this milestone is also seen in hang seng tech index and alibaba and tencent.

not just stocks, optimism is spreading to the currency market. you have seen like the chinese currency, they have spread against the u.s. dollar for the first time since may of 2023 which is because traders are bullish about how policy will pull up chinese economy out of recent slowdown. currency has gained more than 4% your to date because of fed cut. dollar strength recently. tom: thank you very much indeed. a lens on china, rate cut coming through. let's get more reaction and read

across to global asset classes. beijing ramps up a package, a move after measures revive the second largest economy. let's get more from mark cranfield. is the revival sustained? will it filter to the real economy of china? mark: big questions. if there was one thing to take away that reassured traders they were leading measures introduced .

a safe pair of hands, they are driving most injections, giving people confidence that this will happen and is the real deal. changing .4 equities, one of the big moves was fresh capital in china's major banks. that is a major positive. stabilization fund managed pboc, the reputation is on the line. they've been known to deliver with currency, people are very

sure things will happen in the chinese markets. this is filtering through. people realize no turning back. we had an interest rate cut today. basis points shaved off the rates, very positive for all things. tom: pboc not having a press conference. transparency we don't often see. in terms of policy from central bank of china, they've been

given a record high for the year and consumer sentiment survey lower than expected. is this bad dater? markets rally. how are you thinking about fed cuts? mark: fair assessment. pricing became stronger, it puts pressure on federal reserve to follow-up and it has been week so it will take a lot, you have to consider that we have an employment report and people are

expecting the rate unchanged. if we get a number which is worse than that that will ramp up pressure, could will be that by next week if we have a soft jobs report, fully priced at the next meeting will give you 75 or beyond if the dater is weak. certainly it does appear soft dater, bad news is good news in terms of monetary policy. possibly big numbers so watching that next week will be the turning point to see whether

they can do another 50. tom: mark cranfield, slumping consumer sentiment. let's focus on the middle east where 500 people have been killed in two days 11 including the head of missiles and rockets. the arabian president called for a cease-fire in lebanon and gaza. >> condemn israeli crimes against humanity, the international community should bring about a permanent cease-fire and an end to the desperate barbarism of israel in lebanon before it engulfs the region and world. tom: bloomberg horizons anchor

joumanna joins me for the latest. joumanna: yeah, well, he is appealing to find a way out of this. very significant and many are waiting to see how iran will responds, no strong signaling that they want dragged into this. 2000 and's, the killing of the head of a missile and rocket program confirmed by hezbollah as the evening went on.

israeli military saying rockets were fired and we're hearing of a missile and rocket has been directed at tel aviv. escalation has just happened. the number of casualties is mounting, hospitals struggling. hospitals treating casualties. during the war in 2006 10,000 people were treated in one month, so 5000 have been admitted.

the u.n. human rights office raised concerns about civilian deaths and no appetite to let up, just leaving you with some words netanyahu said yesterday, we will strike and i say are war is against hezbollah. tom: indeed. continuing ratcheting up of tensions on both side. here is what else to be thinking about, the riksbank decision when it crosses and oecd economic outlook as we get more

suggestions and europe faces challenges out of germany and france. new home sales, a touch point as mortgages move lower and you can get a roundup in daybreak. subscribers go to the terminal. coming up, commerce bank appoints a new ceo to defend against a takeover bid. we explore next, this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back.

commerzbank named a new ceo after a search in the wake of a takeover threat. oliver crook joins us. what new we now? oliver: they are familiar to bloomberg, she has been cfo of commerzbank since 2020 and first cfo of the bank. she will be the second or third female ceo on the dax, at a time when the person she is replacing told the management board he would not renew his contract the day before the 9% straight -- stake.

important to get someone in there to have strong leadership, she has made it clear that she is not in favor of this and she needs to --to get it under control. it's very important that the advisory board meets, day two. other things we will hear from andrea speaking at a bank of america conference. unions demand the german government classified commerce -- commerzbank is critical infrastructure. tom: you have your finger on the

polls. look at the auto sector, commerzbank and now a probe into the most valuable company, what is going on? >> this is preliminary but basically doj looking into price-fixing with a third party provider between the government and others, that is under scrutiny, up to $2 million of software sales to u.s. military. they are looking at it.

many investigations and without accusations lots that is fraud in the united states and the auto sector catching a blackeye, sap biggest company in germany, twice as big as siemens and why you have issues in contraction at least we have sap. tom: we will be watching that company at 8:00 a.m. u.k. time. oliver crook, thank you. the fed quote got it right by holding rates high. more from our conversation next, this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: the imf says u.s. is in a good place with inflation but slow growth and high debt is something to worry about. >> two very important points for your obvious, number one, growth is holding but by historic standards, it is note high enough to retain good prospects for other economies. average growth 3.7%. high debt levels, that combination of slow growth and high debt is something that we worry about.

we want to see countries taking seriously importance of fiscal prudence. so central banks have done their job, inflation is going down, we need the fiscal side to be equally committed and more attention to growth. >> with the fed making a big move inflation defeated, done? or not yet? >> not yet. we are in a good place, predicting soft landing. we would see inflation down and growth remaining positive. this is where we are. services inflation a little bit more so the fed will watch it

but broadly we think the fed got it right and we would see how that involves in the next meeting of the fed. not to exclude there could be more cuts. why is fed successful? because it is data-driven. watching carefully. tom: that was the imf managing director speaking to carol massar. other stories, central bank of nigeria raised borrowing costs to a record high. the bank says the hike aims to quell inflation and attract investment. opec has doubled down that

global demand for oil will grow. the view is an outlier and scientists say it will lead to climate catastrophe. the bullish outlook is driven by growth. coming up keir starmer is ready to take tough decisions that will make him unpopular but have they told gloom? as we wrap up the conference, stay with us, this is bloomberg. ♪ the moment i met him i knew he was my soulmate. "soulmates." soulmate! [giggles] why do you need me? [laughs sarcastically] but then we switched to t-mobile 5g home internet. and now his attention is spent elsewhere. but i'm thinking of her the whole time. that's so much worse. why is that thing in bed with you? this is where it gets the best signal from the cell tower! i've tried everywhere else in the house!

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tom: this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. these of the stories that set your agenda. china stocks sore for a second day. that's as beijing ramps up stimulus with a record cut over key interest rates. in the u.s., a steep drop in can confidence boost bets for another jumbo cut. by the fed. iran's president tells the un's general assembly that israel's attacks on lebanon won't go unanswered. he urges the west to resume talks on the stalled nuclear deal. taking the top job at commerce bank as it fights a possible takeover from it to see the lender in its history. let's check in on the markets, european futures pointing lower after the gains of around .06 percent, largely fueled by the stimulus and policy response of beijing. you get the rate cut coming through, the biggest on history

around the medium term lending facility today from the pboc but european stocks taking a bit of a breather. down .04% is the picture as we lead up to that eight :00 a.m. u.k. time open. ftse 100 futures lower by 45 points despite further gains in copper and iron ore. keep an eye on base resources. s&p futures looking to lose around a point so far in the session after notching a 41st game of the year. 41 or record highs of the year. powered by expectations that fed will go deeper with a rate cut into the year with 77 basis points or thereabouts being priced in by the markets by the end of the year. nasdaq futures pointing lower by 34 points down .0 2%. let's look across asset, money moving into the front end of the u.s. treasury curve. the two year at 350 two down one basis. euro-dollar at 111, softer dollar part of the story. up .10 percent on the currency.

markets increase their bet on the ecb cutting again in october, they had gone from 20% chance that they would cut in october last week to a 60% chance that october is in play and that they cut again on the week data out of the euro zone. trading $75 a barrel down .02% after popping higher yesterday on the geopolitical tensions in the middle east and the demand expectations out of china. the yellow metal, gold at 2658, gaining after the record push through by go yesterday. that's per troy ounce. britain's prime minister, back to u.k. politics, keir starmer is ready to take tough decisions that will make him unpopular. he already is, according to the bulls, as his government looks to tackle challenges facing the economy. he told us party's annual conferences program remains unchanged despite the slew of setbacks early in his career ship. >> if we take tough, long-term decisions now, if we stick to

the driving pack behind everything we do, high economic growth so the living standard rises in every community, and facing the future. safer streets in your community, stronger borders and more opportunities for your children. clean british energy powering your home, then that light at the end of this tunnel, that britain that belongs to you, we get there much more quickly. tom: let's get more from bloomberg's lizzy burden in liverpool covering the labour party conference. what, for you, were the key takeaways from keir starmer speech? >> there was an ally in the way of policy detail, but this is the prime minister's first speech as prime minister at party conference. he talks about the labor way, being realistic with the public about how they are going to achieve this decade of national renewal as he put it.

tough, long-term decisions. for business, that means a focus on the budget on october 30, and i sat down with the business and trade secretary, jonathan reynolds, and asked whether he thinks there's going to be an exodus of wealth creators because there's tough decisions include tax heights. take a listen to what he said. >> i think that's too dramatic. look at what i said, look what rachel reeves said about the total commitment to improving the business environment in the u.k. the political stability of the u.k. within the g7 has been transformed by the election result. you have a government committed to active policies to improve the business environment even where it's politically difficult like planning and building homes and fundamentally an international outlook. >> no exodus of wealth created. but that's not what they are telling us. the private equity firm general atlantic has worn some of their staff could leave the london office. the u.k. hedge fund billionaire

said he is thinking about moving to geneva, jeremy, pioneer of u.k. private equity is already up sticks for switzerland. and they are not the only ones. we got a survey from s&p global saying that businesses are already putting off investments because they are waiting for this detail in the budget. unfortunately, few details have been forthcoming in liverpool, with still no investment minister and still several weeks until then. tom: let's hope we get the detail in the budget. lizzy burden at the labour party conference wrapping what we've been hearing out of that event. thank you, a lizzy burden, our u.k. correspondent. u.s. president joe biden has used his final address to the un's general assembly to double down on his support for ukraine. president biden: the good news is, putin's war has failed, but we cannot let up.

the world now has another choice to make. will we sustain our support to help ukraine win this war and preserve its freedom? or away from that aggression in a nation be destroyed. i know my answer. we cannot grow weary. tom: bloomberg's news director joins us for the latest for what we've been hearing from joe biden for the conflict in ukraine. what do we know about -- there is the rhetoric from biden again. not unexpected, reiterating that support for ukraine. the question is, how material is that support? is he able to back up the rhetoric for real inconsequential support for ukraine as we head to the election in november? >> we are only weeks away from the u.s. election. come the start of next year there will be a new president in the white house. the question for supportive ukraine is really up in the air and you can see that in the

ukrainian president when he's there this week, the comments he is making, and we are hearing that the u.s. and other allies are starting to push him towards negotiating. so what exactly can joe biden promise and do in the remaining months, aside from urging people to remain resolute. we are hearing he may be able to squeeze another $5 billion in military aid for ukraine. that's probably the last lot that may come under his presidency, but this is under the presidential drawdown authority that they might be able to extend it to weapons being contracted by the u.s. military but not yet delivered. they can divert those to ukraine and then replenish their own stocks. it slightly tricky, but he might be able to wrangle another 5 billion for ukraine. after that, what else is going to come? tom: in the context of europe facing the challenges around providing that support. zelensky will be speaking himself. he's been on the ground himself. what we expect to hear from the ukrainian president? anything we can foresee that may

move the dial from zelensky? >> we will hear a lot of talk about needing to stay the course coming into the winter for ukraine. we know he's been holding meetings on the sidelines, which are about the energy needs of ukraine because we know russia has a patent of heavy bombardment during winter to degrade things like electricity and energy supply. so that's a real question for ukraine, but he's going around talking about how he's going to present his victory plan. he calls it a victory plan. we don't know what's in it but it sounds like it's similar to what he's been saying previously, primarily that ukraine needs to become a member of nato. we know that's not getting masses of traction for an immediate decision on a nato membership, so what exactly, tangibly is he going to put on the table? what we will probably get the other way in the corridor's this week is some country starting to say quietly to him, at what point are you going to sit down

and negotiate with vladimir putin. tom: thank you very much for what we've been hearing from the united nations general assembly with that particular lens on ukraine. we look ahead to zelensky's speech. ross matheson. bloomberg's news director. republican presidential candidate donald trump has been briefed on alleged threats from iran to assassinate him. intelligence officials have identified an iranian threat has heightened in the past few months. meanwhile, ryan routh, the man who was find a hiding in the bushes with a loaded rifle at donald trump's golf course, has been indicted for attempting to assassinate the former president. he's been ordered to remain in jail to await trial. sources say the eu and china have agreed to continue negotiations on tariffs, even if member states vote to impose levies on ev's. the blocks vote on definitive tariffs has been delayed and may now happen in october.

meanwhile, the eu climate commissioner has told bloomberg that china's cheap products threaten the transition to a cleaner economy. google ceo says the company's antitrust battles will be a lengthy process minimizing the business threat they pose. they commented on one of two trials in which the justice department alleges google allegiant -- illegally dominates the digital advertising market. he spoke to david rubenstein in an upcoming episode of peer to peer. >> that case is just getting underway, so i expected to take some time. but, where we can figure out in a constructive solution, i think we will. where we think it really homes our ability to innovate on behalf of our users, we are going to be vigorous in defending ourselves that it's going to take time for her to play out. tom: google ceo, you can see the full interview on the david

rubenstein show, peer to peer conversations on wednesday, october the ninth on bloomberg television at 9:00 p.m. new york time, 6:00 p.m. london time on thursday, october the 10th. caroline ellison has been sentenced to two years in prison by a federal judge for her role in the ft apps -- ftx collapse. the judge says her cooperation with the case was remarkable, but cannot be a get out of jail free card. she was ordered to forfeit $11 billion as proceeds of the crime. coming up, beijing plans spark a stock rally, but will it make a difference to china's economy? we break that down for you with the analysis. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: chinese stocks have extended their gains on beijing sweeping stimulus package. the big question is whether that optimism will last and whether it will support the economy of china. bloomberg television guess have been weighing in. >> chinese markets had a long time of underperformance. almost a stage where people don't want to be there. i think what these moves are saying is that probably we reach the end of that underperformance. >> i think the things that we would need to see that fundamentally alter the trajectory is that the ingredients to this would include reforms that ultimately personal savings rate down and drive a structurally higher demand from the household sector. >> they need to take more decisive measures, significantly larger scale funding to help stabilize the property market.

>> it's the change of the policy stance. it went from a highly reluctant stance to stimulate the economy to showing such a high degree of tolerance for slower growth over the last two years towards one that's much more proactive. >> how effective it is it would probably take some time to see. versus the stimulus policy that they announced so far has been a better one. >> despite the assignment on equity markets, csi 300 up 1.5 percent so far in the session. economists are striking a somewhat more cautious tone, so it might not be enough to pull the $18 trillion economy out. very pleased to say am joined by david chiu, china economist for bloomberg economics in hong kong. what is your and your team's assessment of the stimulus package announced yesterday, and the implications in the short to

medium term for the world's second-largest economy? quakes that would be a boost to the growth, but we have more than four months in this year. our assessment for this year to the gdp growth would only be 0.2 percentage points. and also, we didn't take our forecast for this year because in the beginning of the year -- this year when we made the forecast, we factored in a degree of stimulus. so that what we are looking at is next year, our assessment and may raise the growth of 1.1 percentage points, but it has some conditions. we need to see more accompanied

stimulus or even reforms, not only in the monetary side, but also in the fiscal side and the need to address those structural problems. so to make the stimulus fully and effective. tom: that ties into my next question, the structural reforms and fiscal stimulus are pieces that need to come to play. is the euro expectation they are coming in what form would they take? >> if you look at the domestic market aec's suggestions by researchers and economists for more stimulus. in our mind, the first thing the government can do is to make the implementation of the fiscal budget more seriously. what we learned over the past several months was that although

the central government have a large number deficit for this year, local governments were not actively doing so because of several hurdles. for example, maybe we cannot find the suitable project to invest in. and also, there were some political considerations behind the behaviors so that all the concerns for the local government, think these things should be addressed by the central government. in addition, we think the government needed to do something concrete to improve the labor market. although, if you look at the unemployment rate, it's just a 5.3 point, five point two, it's always stable at that level, but if you look at the younger persons rate, there's more than 18%. it tells us that in the market

there are some hurdles that are limiting the hiring of young persons. we should remember that it is the young person who has more tendency to spend more money so that if the government wants to raise the consumption, they should consider to raise the employment rate for the young person. we are pointing out, there should be a lot of other things the government can do. tom: there's a long list, let's see if the government is listening to you and the team. david chiu from bloomberg economics, thank you with the assessment of the stimulus package from the pboc, weather will be enough to support the economy of the additional fiscal support that bloomberg economics sees as consequential and needed for this economy going forward with an unemployment rate amongst young people. let's check in on commodities

market, just one section of your asset class. he got a real live from the package. some of that started to fade. brent was up a little over 1.5%. by the close of play yesterday. part of that was down to the china story and expectations of more demand. a little bit of softness coming through, but given the run-up, brett is down 5%. wti at 7112. as well as luxury goods makers and autos as well. he saw the likes of rio tinto searching on the back of that. iron ore is up again. 1.5 percent but not as high as the pricing from yesterday. gains around 5% but still seeing increases in iron ore very much tied to the stimulus efforts of china. copper softer in the session.

10,000 level down .10%. plenty more. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe. record highs for the s&p so far year to date, 41st coming through yesterday. that's despite the fact that tech was not performing at the levels that we've seen previously. nvidia got a boost yesterday. stock was up on the back of the news that jensen long stopped selling shares. the other lift that came through from the u.s. and the s&p, one of the biggest gainers was estee lauder tied to the china stimulus story. s&p reaching a fresh 41st record yesterday. part of it down to that u.s. consumer sentiment survey. bad news is good news as markets

priced in more rate cuts from the federal reserve. around 76 basis points priced in by year end, which would include a 50 basis point cut, given we only have two meetings left that were active for the fed. talking of the consumer sentiment story, interesting around the concerns of the labor market, jobs, that came through in that survey from the conference board. for the context, the survey falling the most in three years, and the labor market context, very interesting. the response to that was ramping up a bit around what the fed has to do and puts the focus back on the comments from fomc officials like austan goolsbee. the focus should be much more on the labor market rather than inflation at this point. we have the pc indicator comes out friday and the jobs out of the u.s. next week, which could be pivotal in terms of whether or not we lock in these expectations around the additional 50 basis point cut that some in the markets are betting on. let's look at the gold trade.

a daily superlative. go back and another record level. part of it is down to that great expectations story as low as rates tend to benefit the other metals. silver is doing well. silver has outperformed go. go up around 30 present. silver up around 33% year to date. both getting a lift of expectations on lower rates. on go it's to geopolitical tension story fitting into it and central bank buying as well. keep in mind on the fact that we are above 2600 for the yellow metal. now, let's check in on a stock that could well move in the open. i know the team on the opening trade will be looking at this. s.a.p., the software maker on germany on bloomberg reporting is facing an investigation, potential investigation, at least the beginnings of a probe into alleged, potentially alleged price-fixing. there's no guarantee any of this ends up in any official allegations, but the spotlight is on now, germany's most

valuable company by market cap. the s.a.p. story has seen gains around 70% year today. the bloomberg reporting suggests there is a probe going on, at least investigation pre-lim into the sale of some of their products into the pentagon and the military worth around $2 billion of sales. that's a story worth focusing in. that story could move and we continue to fall that for you. trade is up next. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

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anna: good morning from london. i'm alongside guy johnson. an hour away from the opening trade. here is what you need to know. china stocks offer a second day

as