scarlet: welcome to "bloomberg markets." i am scarlet fu. investors taking a breather. you look at the price action across asset classes, it is more of a mixed bag. the s&p 500 slightly higher. tech and energy shares are in the green. consumer names are a bit of a drag on the index. treasuries are giving back gains.

different expectations for the jobs report come friday. in currencies, i'm looking at the yen. it plunges at least 1% against the other major currencies after the new prime minister said they economy is not ready for more interest rate hikes. the yen weakening across the board. oil extending yesterday's gains. we want to dig into some of the individual equity movers. first up is tessa. falling despite posting its first increase in vehicle sales this year. still, the numbers were a bit of a letdown, with investors expecting more about bone from china. humana tumbling to its lowest since 2020. on pace for its biggest one-day drop since 2022.

the stock is under pressure after a drop in quality ratings which poses a threat to long-term revenue. our attention remains focused on the situation in the middle east with iran and israel. we heard from a member of the atlantic council. >> what we have seen in israel's response and actions in lebanon is the military is quite as capable as israel led everyone to believe. they have been tracking the threat from hezbollah and iran and had seen this as the greater threat to israel's existence. scarlet: for more on how this is showing up in the oil patch, she covers the middle east and opec and joins us from london. talk about how brent and wti are

extending the surge. the specific concern among oil traders is military strikes could disrupt the supply of oil. how big of a player is iran in the global oil market right now? >> iran has been sanctioned since 2019. those were the most recent set of sanctions from donald trump after he exited the nuclear deal a year earlier. those have been the most debilitating for iran's oil sector since the 1979 revolution. iran had a series of waivers while its oil was sanctioned by the u.s., there was seven countries where iran was still able to sell oil. under trump, after obama released -- lifted some

sanctions to an extent, although they were still largely in place , when donald trump exited the nuclear deal, the sanctions he put in place were ineffective embargo effectively on all iranian oil sales. as a player in the market its position has diminished but it has still been selling. it never stops selling. the islamic republic's policy is we will always try to sell oil even if we have to shift it at massive discounts. they have been selling oil to big discounts to buyers in china and other countries. it has reportedly been disguised and gone to other countries through routes like malaysia. iran never left the market but its footprint has definitely been reduced as a result of the trump-era sanctions. scarlet: thank you for explaining that.

clearly behind the scenes it is doing a lot. iran and israel exchange of tax in april and that did not cause much damage on the ground and did not seem to have much of a lasting impact on oil prices. is anything different this time around? >> i think the barrage of missiles that iran fired at israel were smaller but the speed of the missiles was faster. reportedly these were supersonic or hypersonic missiles. the warning time compared to the april strike was a lot shorter. there was a higher element of risk and danger involved because the israelis and israel's allies had less time to prepare. apparently iran was targeting three distinct military bases and extent to which those

ballistic missiles penetrated the iron dome left more question marks compared to april when it was more roundly intercepted in a very effective way. scarlet: thank you so much for providing some context on the impact on oil prices. the middle east was the first topic of debate with vice presidential candidates jd vance and tim walz. here is their take on how the u.s. should approach the conflict. >> israel's ability to defend itself is fundamental. getting its hostages back, fundamental. ending the humanitarian crisis in gaza. but the expansion of israel and its proxies is an absolute fundamental necessity for the united states to have steady leadership there. along with our israeli partners and our coalition we were able

to stop the incoming attack. what is fundamental is steady leadership will matter. >> diplomacy is not a dirty word but something governor walz said is extraordinary. you said iran is as close to a nuclear weapon as they have ever been in governor walz blame donald trump. who has been the vice president for the last 3.5 years? your running mate, not mine. donald trump consistently made the world more secure. scarlet: for more on the debate and u.s. involvement let's bring in kailey leinz, who is back in washington. this was a surprisingly substantive debate as expectations were not too high seeing the things jd vance and tim walz were talking about at campaign rally's. kailey: it was policy oriented and civil. this is not something we have been used to in american political discourse since 2016

when donald trump first came onto the floor. they were effectively agreeing to each other at some points and overall it was pretty respectfully conducted. what we did see a lot of was not necessarily direct answering of questions. that was true of the first question of the debate about the middle east. would you support israel preemptively striking iran? neither of them said yes or no. we get here tim walz talking about donald trump specifically is dangerous to have in power in the world that is so dangerous. jd vance talk about peace during the trump administration. other than the questions at the beginning of the debate, there was not much foreign policy. no direct questions about china policy, just a question about tim walz visiting china when he admitted he misspoke about his dates of travel.

no ukraine questions directed toward jd vance, who has been highly skeptical of u.s. support of ukraine. scarlet: you had to wait until about 80 minutes in until tim walz got a zinger in on jd vance when he confronted him about january 6. what is the take away? it feels like if anything to harris campaign does want to really highlight in go viral, it is that clip. kailey: you have already seen that circulating on social media. it has been turned into an ad by the harris campaign. tim walz asked jd vance if donald trump lost the election. he said i am focused on the future. tim walz characterize that as a damming nonanswer. that will be circulating in the final five weights leading up to november 5. we have a lot of talk about democracy.

jd vance try to characterize the democratic crisis as one of censorship and the silencing of voices. tim walz made it about the peaceful transition of power in the aftermath of january 6, 2021. he said no matter who wins, both sify to shake hands and declare there was a winner. no one is going to want to go down easy ended with the other side won. this race is still incredibly tight. the snap holding showed an incredibly tight view on each performance. some show a very narrow victory for jd vance but overall it seems like no one really won last night's debate which was not the case in the trump-harris debate. the core tenant of vice presidents is to do no harm. it is just a question of whether either of them was possibly able

to move the ball for their team. scarlet: we will wait to see if it shows up in any polling. kailey leinz joining us from washington. thank you for the wrap up of the vice presidential debate. coming up on "bloomberg markets ," with the u.s. election a month out the world is watching how the u.s. will engage with the middle east. our next guest helped form foreign policy. aaron david miller will be joining us with his insight. this is bloomberg. ♪

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scarlet: this is "bloomberg markets." i am scarlet fu. we are monitoring developments in the middle east against iran

's missile -- following iran's missile strikes. one big topic is how the u.s. will navigate this. we are joined by carnegie endowment for international peace senior fellow aaron david miller. you point out that we have the holiday to begin tonight and yom kippur next week. benjamin netanyahu and joe biden are scheduled to speak. why is this significant? aaron: the israelis have clearly made a decision. it is no secret they will respond and the response will be severe and very serious. and has not been obedient. the fact there were no civilian casualties, there were some wounded and a palestinian was killed, probably by shrapnel

from a falling interceptor, there is some space and time to figure how to respond. the administration would like to shape israel's response. in april the iranians launched 300 weapons. the administration president said take it, it is a win, and the israelis responded with a missile strike. they will go way beyond that this time around. the real question is, what are they going to do? can they find a balance between doing something quite significant on one hand, and not triggering a massive iranian response on the other, which would take the middle east to a place it has never been. scarlet: what is the message joe biden will be impressing upon benjamin netanyahu when they speak at how much leverage does he have? aaron: i do not know if my math

is right on this. one of the more consequential elections in history. given the administration's position, i do not think the administration has much. clearly the israelis have move their focus from gaza to the north. they have hollowed out hezbollah . they are in a strong position to continue to do that. i would remind everyone there was a report that seven or eight israelis were killed in southern lebanon in intense fighting with hezbollah. this is by no means over. we understand you have to respond. jake sullivan said consequences for what the iranians did should produce severe consequences. they want to help the israelis think through exactly what it is they will do. what are they going to do?

i would expect they could strike oil producing facilities, go after conventional military facilities. will they touch iran's nuclear sites? there is a compelling argument being advanced in israel that now is the right time. hezbollah is weak, air defenses are weak. i am still betting in this round that they won't. scarlet: i see. you served at the state department in 1978 and 2003. the state department working behind the scenes carefully on all of this. the white house has tried to broker a cease-fire between israel and hamas for months and has gotten nowhere and has essentially given up on that front. what is the state department doing going forward now that israel has moved on and is looking to the north?

how does the state department continue to support the government in trying to get something to happen? aaron: i understand the focus on the state department but this is really an all hands on deck approach. the ci director has been leading -- the cia director has been leading negotiations. people negotiate and reach deals when one issue is present and that is urgency. there has to be enough pain on one end and prospects of gain on the other -- it is normal human interaction and in gaza there is insufficient pain and gain on the two core decision-makers -- benjamin netanyahu and the preeminent palestinian decision-maker who is in a tunnel somewhere, meters below ground, probably surrounded by hostages. there is no urgency.

the advantages of doing this deal are in the minds of these two decision-makers, outweighed by the disadvantages. it will be very hard. scarlet: you make that really clear. what is the best -- case scenario in the region? aaron: israel is now confronting three wars of attrition. one with hamas. hamas will survive as an insurgency. a war of attrition with hezbollah, which will not end. the deaths of seven or eight is ready soldiers suggests that. and the premier event between israel and iran. there are no transformative happy hollywood endings to any of these conflicts. the best you will be able to do

is deter, contain and maybe if you are lucky create smart transactional negotiations that would manage and perhaps contain conflict. nobody ever lost money betting against stability or peace in this part of the world. scarlet: thank you so much for joining us. aaron david miller, carnegie endowment for international peace senior fellow. coming up, money managers putting cash into etf's to buy shiny stocks after fresh stimulus. we will dig into that next in our etf report. here is one look at an israeli etf. it took a turn lower given all the conflicts this week. it is down about 1.5% this week. this is bloomberg. ♪

scarlet: this is "bloomberg markets." i am scarlet fu. it is time for a new weekly segment called the etf report. of course we had to bring in bloomberg etf iq cohost katie greifeld. we are taking a look at china. the markets are closed but there is so much action going on. katie: big time. that is the fun thing about etf's. they keep going. you take a look at k web. that is the csi china internet fund. the biggest china focused etf listed in the u.s. it launched in 2013 and has $7.4 billion in assets. if you look at the daily flows in the last available session it

took in $700 million. the biggest one-day inflow for the fund since it launched in 2013. it shows you the degree to which investors have conviction right now in this turnaround in chinese equities. scarlet: part of this is tied to that investors were not exposed at all to china. it was so underinvested that people say it is un-investable at this point. katie: you are completely right. with this one in particular it has a painful history of burning investors. it fell by more than 50% in 2022. scarlet: oof. katie: it took in $7 billion. $7 billion came in and it fell by 50%. people were trying to catch the falling knife. in 2022 it was the chinese reopening trade that was supposed to deliver big results.

scarlet: it did not. katie: basically they were burned in 2022 but this time given all the stimulus measures we have gotten, i'm not sure people are calling it a bazooka but a big bang stimulus. scarlet: whether the flows continue because china's market is closed for golden week. national day was yesterday. it reopens next tuesday. when the markets close, this is a proxy for how to invest in china. the hang seng index in hong kong had a massive day, up 6.25%. the volume was so immense that brokers and traders could not manage. katie: coming from a different place where u.s. markets are. it is still open. you look at how it does perform this week even with mainland

china closed. right now it is up close to 5%. clearly the bullish momentum is still building behind chinese equities and behind this etf. it will be fascinating to see if we get the follow-through when it comes to flow. already seeing big flows with kweb. scarlet: i am looking at fxi. that, too, is up about 5% -- 5.5%. good stuff. katie: that was fun. scarlet: thank you for joining us on the brand-new etf report. katie: i will see you monday. [laughter] scarlet: for all things etf, you can watch katie, eric and myself on "etf iq" and you also have a newsletter. katie: it comes out on fridays. bloomberg.com/newsletter. scarlet: we are slowly taking over.

thank you so much, katie greifeld. we have an exclusive conversation with a ceo. this is bloomberg. ♪ it's our son, he is always up in our business. it's the verizon 5g home internet i got us.

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the moment, recovering from yesterday's risk-off stance. tech and energy are gaining. in the fixed income market, treasuries giving back some gains after a stronger-than-expected printout of adp. that leads us to the jobs report on friday which will help determine how the federal reserve approaches interest rate

cuts. yesterday, a low of 3.69%. the dollar is stronger right now but the real story is about the yen's weakness. good has plunged 1% after the japanese prime minister study economy there is not ready for more interest rate cuts. $70 a barrel for wti as oil extends yesterday's gains following hostilities in the middle east. apollo ceo marc rowan said he sees no reason for the fed to keep cutting rates to stimulate the economy. he explained his reasoning toward jonathan ferro. marc: the notion that we are spending $2 trillion in excess of what we take in during peace does not bode well for the availability of capital to do

what we need to do for the next generation. we are spending the next generation's money. jonathan: is anyone on the campaign trail willing to do anything about that? marc: no. jonathan: in reality? marc: let's hope so. jonathan: i have said for years that america has the unique privilege of acting recklessly. are we losing that? marc: not yet. we have a long way to go. we had of a lot of examples around the globe of people who have acted recklessly for a longer period of time but we have obligations others do not. we are the beneficiary of being the strongest economy, capital market, military and the best place to do business. if you take off what has done, you may not like i we got here and finance it but we allocated $2 trillion, it is all being built. two years ago we spent $52

billion to build semi conductors here. not a single plant has opened. a year ago, encouraging the manufacture of renewables. $1.3 trillion-$2.3 trillion, not a single plant has opened. people around the globe are figuring out we are better off here. something tells me we are ramp ing defense of production. we have no legal immigration. this sets us up very well fiscally for a strong economy which i think we are seeing. jonathan: federal reserve is cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. he believes the economy does not need rate cuts. do you share that view? marc: i was unfortunate to be on tv an hour after the rate cut.

a very expensive insurance policy. jonathan: what is expensive about it? marc: equities are at an all-time high, financing is available, real estate prices are going up yet we are stimulating. we are stimulating fiscally. it is not clear we need more rate cuts at this point in time. to the extent we encourage growth -- growth was very strong as you saw from gdp for the quarter -- to the extent we accelerate the economy and have to go in the other direction, that would not be a good day. jonathan: you think the fed might have to hike interest rates in 2025? marc: i'm not saying that but i see no reason for the cutting of rates right now. scarlet: that was apollo ceo marc rowan speaking with our jonathan ferro. you can catch more of that interview on bloomberg.com. let's go back to the developing storm in the middle east. after iran launched an attack on

israel, israel responded without provoking all-out war. for more on the situation we want to bring in bobby ghosh, who has three decades of reporting starting in the 1990's. a lot of people were thinking what happened in april could serve as a template for what happens right now, given there was a strike against israel and that it happened again. bobby: i'm not so sure we can expect certainties anymore. we are in a stage where we are in the great unknown. i say that despite having covered the middle east for so long. i feel like we are in uncharted waters. the big question is can iran afford to leave it as one and done as they did in april? in april they gave long notice of the impending strike. they gave israel and the u.s. and israel's neighbors plenty of

opportunity to anticipate the rockets and the missiles. this time the rockets were much deadlier and faster moving. the ballistic missiles. there was no notice. we are in a new space. ken iran afford to leave it -- can iran afford to leave it at that? i don't think so. they have lost a lot of prestige, two of its most important partners -- the heads of hamas and hezbollah. hezbollah is a very important strategic asset for iran. it is watching the asset be degraded. can iran leave it at that? i don't think so. i think they will need to do something more to bring their prestige. if they fail to do so all allies will start asking questions about whether they can depend on iran to have their back. scarlet: that is not a show of

strength. we learned benjamin netanyahu and president biden are set to speak before rosh hashanah. how much leverage does the u.s. have? what can the u.s. do to restrain israel, specifically netanyahu? bobby: it is a question we have been asking for years. the short answer is not a lot. netanyahu is clearly operating on his own agenda. the biden association wags a finger disapprovingly from time to time but is unwilling to go beyond that. the u.s. provides israel with weapons and i suspect those weapons will be even more important and the u.s. will continue to supply them. the u.s. also provides diplomatic cover in places like that you and israelis know that no matter what president biden says, when it comes down to the brass tacks , the u.s. will have their back

because there is consensus. it is one of the few issues in this country in this divisive moment that is truly bipartisan. the support for israel. i think netanyahu can count on that to continue. scarlet: i mentioned rosh hashanah. it begins tonight. yom kippur is next week. the one-year anniversary of october 7 is coming up. how do these factor into what iran decides to do and what israel decides to do? bobby: the thing was war is once the conflict begins -- i have seen this happen in the middle east and a number of conflicts that i have had the misfortune of covering -- considerations get thrown out the window. all the actions involved in war are predicated on tactics and strategies that have nothing to do with larger religious considerations. they have more to do with an opportunity, the target is

within our sites, do we strike now? with things like that happen, commanders and political leaders do not stop to ask if it is appropriate on a friday or saturday. scarlet: that is an important point. it is something you do not think about as a civilian. there are headlines that just crossed. president biden saying he is talking to benjamin netanyahu soon and he would not support an attack on iran's nuclear sites. when israel decides to respond, the targets it will take aim at -- military bases, oil facilities -- will it go so far to attack the nuclear facilities? what would that mean if israel decided to target that? bobby: israel has often said it faces an existential threat from a potentially nuclear armed iran . if iran were to required nuclear weapons, israel would be its

number one target. president biden is trying to draw some redlines without using that term for obvious reasons. i do not think netanyahu will be guided by the concerns in washington. he will be guided by one his commanders are telling women what is possible. is it possible to take on significant elements of iran's nuclear arsenal or nuclear facilities? if it is possible is it sensible to do it now and can they do it without risking too much in the way of israeli lives? those are the considerations. it will not be much about washington is thinking. scarlet: iran's president vows a stronger response if israel retaliates. at this point it is more "when" israel response. how stretched is israel? it has caused in the south and now iran you could argue it is finished dealing with hezbollah in the north.

bobby: i do not think it has finished dealing with hezbollah. the land war there has just started. scarlet: at least looking at senior leadership. bobby: yes, now it gets to the fighters on the ground. israeli soldiers are being killed. that is beginning to get serious. israel is fighting two land wars, against hamas and hezbollah and fighting an air war with iran. we have been saying -- we have been talking about the regional conflict and worrying about when it would start. guess what? i think it has already started. can israel sustain this? yes, if it can rely on the support of its allies. as long as the u.s. is willing to give the backing it has had. when those attacks took place the u.s. took place -- took part in defending israel. it can continue to sustain this

for several months at the very least. scarlet: bobby ghosh, we will be checking in with you and your decades of covering the middle east. bloomberg news' bobby ghosh. coming up we have a conversation with the ceo of standardaero. russell ford, ceo of standardaero is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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scarlet: this is "bloomberg markets." i am scarlet fu. the east and west coast port strike has entered day 2. it will have ripple effects. as some divergent freight ends up flowing through california

ports. joining us is alex naumov. cofounder of west coast shipping. great for you to join us. thank you for speaking with us. could you set the scene and tell us what your company shifts? your company name suggests it operates out of the west coast but does not reveal the interesting cargo you ship. alex: thank you for having me. west coast shipping is an international shipping company that specializes in classic cars. we operate three asset-based warehouses which serve as the port of new york, new jersey, miami and oakland. our customers buy inexpensive classic cars nostalgic to their age. one of my favorite stories is a husband who was organizing his 50th anniversary, he was able to find the actual car that he and his wife went on their first

date. do this to say they both had tears in their eyes. scarlet: for your customers it is important for them to get their shipments as quickly as possible because they have a lot invested emotionally. i am curious to hear what kind of impact west coast shipping has felt from this port strike or anticipation for months now? alex: i started this company loading containers physically myself. as of today are operations in new jersey and florida have stopped. we are no longer shipping cars until the strike is over. our clients are on hold with purchases. they are waiting for further news from us. they are hoping it will be over quickly. over the years i was lucky to grow this company to three locations and now my team have 34 people. i have become their friends and family.

i experience their weddings, birthdays, graduations and it is heartbreaking to think that if the strike is prolonged we might not exist in a few months. my team deserves to provide for their families. scarlet: you said you have facilities and oakland. are you seeing more activity there? i know you cannot do much about what is happening in new york, new jersey and miami but what does it look like it oakland? alex: we were able to move cars cross country and they will go on a vessel from california but it is a very small part of our business. the majority of it goes to europe, where cross-country trucking is very expensive and you have a longer transit time going through the panama canal, which makes it unaffordable and not interesting for our clients to do it. the cars are lower value, a lot need restoration.

the whole business is on hold. scarlet: the economics do not work out. is any of your cargo floating around on carriers? alex: definitely. there are a lot of import and export containers. 85% of what we do is export and it has officially been stopped as of last tuesday. a week ago it was when the shipping line started -- stopped receiving cargo. the import cargo is sitting outside the ports. customers email me every day concerned about everything from what happens to their cars, delays and what else can be done and if i can be rerouted through mexico or canada, which unfortunately the ships just stand still in the ocean. scarlet: i think you answered my question if that would be a possibility. i am sorry to hear it is such a struggle for you. good luck to you and both sides

of the work stoppage that some sort of resolution can be reached. alex naumov of west coast shipping which shifts classic cars, often nostalgia based gifts. coming up we have a conversation with russell ford, the ceo of standardaero as shares of the company just began trading on the new york stock exchange. this is bloomberg. ♪

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scarlet: this is "bloomberg markets." i am scarlet fu. it is time for the stock of the hour. we are watching standardaero. shares of the aircraft maintenance firm opened at $31 a share after the company sold more than 50 million shares in

its ipo raising a total of $1.44 billion. joining us is ceo russell ford. the ipo priced above the marketing range after being up sized. can you tell us about what the reception was like from investors? russell: we are really pleased to see the opening. the market is validating the value we bring to the aerospace industry for a long period of time and i believe the market interest we have seen is very positive. scarlet: bloomberg had reported carlisle was first looking to sell the company but in the end it decided on an ipo. i am curious what led to the decision and how your company could execute better now than it is publicly listed? russell: there are always options for next steps as companies continue to grow. we exercise the dual track to look at both offerings -- public

and private. we decided the public track was the most appropriate track for what is going on in the aerospace industry and the opportunity for us to access entirely new business partners that allow standardaero to continue to grow and provide the necessary maintenance for the increasing flying demand. scarlet: in the end, an ipo would give you a higher valuation that an outright sale. what does that say about valuations in the public market right now? russell: it reinforces the aerospace industry absolutely has a very bright future. flight hours are increasing across commercial aerospace as well as the business aviation market. the number of flight hours are increasing much faster than new aircraft being added to the fleet and that means more maintenance as programs live longer, on top of new programs.

on the military side, there is a lot of expected investment to be made for service life extension programs. scarlet: it sounds like the current shortage is good for your business. what kind of projections are you making in terms of growth rates for that shortage? russell: in the aerospace business, they have been somewhat constrained because we deal with unique materials. fortunately for standardaero a big portion of our business allows us to do repairs of engine components. we have one of the largest repair businesses as part of standardaero, greater than a half billion dollars a year. that allows us to provide additional solutions for our customers in case of any material shortages. it is good for us but also supports our speed and ability to deliver a good turn times to

our customers and keep the aircraft flying. scarlet: you served in various markets. what is the breakdown between the different markets and what do you want to look like in five years' time? russell: we have an even balance across different subsectors. we have consciously built the company that way because those different subsectors, the maintenance requirement on a commercial jet are different from those on the military jet or a business jet. as a result when you get the periods of economic volatility, we are able to move our work and our workforce to the different sectors where there might be growth to offset sectors having a little bit of trouble. that allows us to work smoothly and to dampen any sort of economic -- scarlet: russell ford, appreciate you joining us.

russell ford is ceo of standardaero, which debuted on the new york stock exchange at $31 a share. i am scarlet fu and that does it for "bloomberg markets" this hour. ♪ ♪ ♪ with so much great entertainment out there... wouldn't it be easier if you could find what you want, all in one place? my favorites.

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>> from the world of politics to the world of business, this is "balance of power."

live from washington, d.c. joe: joe biden and kamala harris head for the storm zone. welcome to the fast is showing politics the day after the vice presidential debate with joe biden in the carolinas and kamala harris in the swing state of georgia where the long recovery from hurricane helene is underway. joe mathieu and kailey leinz in washington. we made our way back from new york, the site of last night's debate. kailey: it is not clear based on the spot polling after the debate if there was an abundantly clear winner. jd vance had the edge and was able to win some people over with a much more civil and respectful debate than many people were bracing themselves for. this was old school