♪ >> good morning. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am tom mackenzie in london. oil studies after its biggest -- steadies after its biggest

one-day jump in over a year. markets rattled after president joe biden says the u.s. is discussing whether to support potential israeli strikes on iran's curse with the. will there be -- crude facilities. will there be a surprise? split on tariffs. germany calls for the eu to drop its plans for 45% levies on chinese electric vehicles. we will preview today's decision. ♪ happy friday. markets are currently in something of a holding pattern ahead of the nonfarm payrolls print that drop set 1:30 p.m. u.k. time with a survey forecast

of 150,000 for the month of september. but importantly as well, the employment rate expected to stay stable at 4.2%. if that moves higher or lower, of course, that could feed into the bets on where the fed goes next, with 25 or 50 still being debated. markets pricing in around 60 to 63 basis points of cuts by the end of the year. the geopolitics remain central, the tensions in the middle east, and that is also feeding into the sideline view, at least for some in the markets, until there's more clarity on the response from israel to iran. european futures currently edging higher by 0.1%. losses of around 0.9% yesterday. ftse 100 currently flat in the u.k. s&p and similar territory. nasdaq futures -- s&p futures in similar territory. let's check in across asset before we get to the asian market deep dive. currently on the u.s. 10 year,

3.84, there's going to be sensitivity on the front end of the u.s. treasury curve, particularly on the nonfarm payrolls data. jobs data yesterday, relatively benign picture, and services better than estimates, suggesting there is still resilience in the u.s. economy. in terms of the bloomberg dollar index, you have seen significant moves into the dollar, currently just down 0.1%. the geopolitics playing into that currency, as well as a safe haven bid. brent at $77.54 after the spike in prices yesterday. mixed messages from u.s. president joe biden seemingly suggesting that an attack on the crude facilities of iran is a potential option. gold on the safe haven play as well getting a bid this morning, up 0.3%. let's check in on the asian market. using further strength over in hong kong, particularly with chinese tech companies listed on the index. h getting so farsi -- hsi gaining so far in the region.

japanese yen weaker. the nikkei up 0.2%, a further lift for japanese stocks as we listen into the japanese prime minister giving a speech expected to start, if it hasn't already started. any commentary on monetary policy will of course be interesting. markets on edge for what could be the biggest data print this month, the u.s. unemployment report for september do later today. joining us as markets reporter valerie tytel. what are we expecting? valerie: it's a big day for the markets. the headline number is 150k with the unemployment number expected to stay the same as the prior month at 4.2%. average hourly earnings expected to stay the same at 3.3% year on year. the range of predictions is very wide. september is historically a month that has a lot of complicated seasonal adjustments. on this headline number of predictions range from 70k all

the way to 220. i urge you to keeping an eye on the revisions. the revisions have been very weak to prior months. somewhat argue the market reaction to last month's print was all about the steep revisions to the month prior so keep an eye on that. i even urge you, take a look at the second decimal on the unemployment rate. the market is really going to pick apart this report and it's all because of the emphasis of jerome powell. i want to take you back to his speech in jackson hole just in august. jerome powell told us that we do not seek more welcome further cooling test seek or welcome -- we do not seek or welcome further cooling in the labor market. saying the fed will be there to protect our labor market and that's their main focus. he went on to say a few weeks ago that the unemployment rate is the single most important one probably when it comes to the direction of fed policy. let's take a look at the chart of the unplugged rate recently

density unemployment rate -- let's take a look at the chart of the unemployment rate. citi actually think the unemployment rate, there is risks it could arise not just to 4.3% but 4.4. they specifically pullout the weakening labor market sentiment when it comes to the conference board's jobs too hard to get sentiment indicator. this is a big report for the market today. but remember, we do get one more payroll print before the fed convenes again on november 7. tom: heck, tom. valerie tytel is back. thank you for the breakdown. 4.4% unemployment, that would be a standout. that would put 50 basis points back on the table this federal reserve let's get back to the geopolitics, particularly what's been playing out in oil markets. oil is steady and the session this friday but that follows its biggest one-day jump in almost a

year yesterday. brent trading currently just below $70 a barrel -- $78 a barrel following comments from present biden when asked about supporting potential israeli attacks on iranian crude facilities. the answer was confusing. let's get some clarity right now and bring in anthony dipaolo, middle east energy reporter. walk us through the impact on the market and what exactly joe biden had to say. >> good morning. that's correct. joe biden made a comment that was unclear when asked if the u.s. would support an attack on iranian oil facilities by israel. he gave a vague answer, saying we are discussing that. even though it is unclear whether they are discussing that within the administration, an official later clarified there had been no decision yet. but just that initial idea that they were thinking about it was enough to spark another increase in oil, a 5% increase, the

second when we have seen this week. so already, we have seen oil coming up quite strongly on that succession of israeli attacks against hezbollah in lebanon, and the increasing ground incursion there, as well as that iranian attack and the concern over reprisals there. so we are seeing some notes coming in from some of the investment banks talking about what could happen if some of the major facilities were hit and that would result in a loss of supply, a loss of some of the iranian supply. we have not seen any real supply interrupted, and that's why the oil price has been so contained so far this year, despite all the geopolitical risk going on. traders just have not seen that supplying a ruptured and that has not caused a jump -- supply interruption and that has not caused a jump in the price up until this week. tom: 73.64 on wti.

you talk about expectations, comments coming through from investment banks. what are potential scenarios around pricing on oil around whatever action israel does take? is there additional supply that could come onto the market? how do the saudi's react in that kind of environment? >> so far, we have seen roughly 5% jumps, kind of knee-jerk reactions so far this year anytime we see some geopolitical risk. we have seen that basically happen twice this week so we are in a kind of high-risk period. it depends on what type of facilities would be impacted. if we saw crude production or export facilities targeted, that of course would have an impact directly on the market, because that could eventually curtail supplies. the easiest things to hit would be potentially storage tanks or export terminals. iran has a large export terminal, which is the main export terminal for all of their oil flows, all of which go

through out of the persian gulf and through the strait of hormuz. oil fields are harder to hit, obviously, because their underground. there are aboveground installations but those are harder to target and take out. refineries would be more of an issue domestically. we have seen ukraine, for example, in the russian war hit russian refineries that supply that domestic market while avoiding some of those more export-oriented russian refineries. iran, since they are under sanctions, they are not really allowed to export any refined products, or rather, other countries are not allowed to buy those products so hitting some domestic refiners could damage fuel supply to the domestic economy in iran. iran is largely self-sufficient now on things like gasoline because they have been so cut off and unable to import. it depends on what kind of for they would attack. iran is producing close to, over 3 million barrels, so close to

what they were able to do without sentience, because the regime has been so permissive of late. they are exporting a million and a half barrels a day, give or take. opec-plus is curtailing production, so they've got a lot of supply that could come back on. in an emergency, opec+ could rush some supplies back to market to replace that iranian crude. from what we are hearing, iran is trying to avoid that situation. tom: at the need apollo, middle east markets -- anthony dipaolo, middle east markets and energy reporter, thank you so much. high stakes for the region and oil markets. germany is reportedly planning to vote against eu tariffs on chinese electric vehicles later today. reuters quotes vw as a saying they are the wrong approach. our asia transport reporter joins us from hong kong. it is pretty fascinating the splits that this whole debate is having and causing within the eu.

how do we expect other eu members to vote? where does france line up if germany as opposed -- is opposed? >> from the reports we are seeing, france is expected to vote in favor of this proposal, as our greece, italy and poland. now, together, these four countries represent about 39% of the population of the eu. now, this means that if these member states vote in favor of the tariffs, it means that a majority bloc, which would have required 50 member states representing at least 65% of the bloc's population to oppose these tariffs. so if these four member states go ahead with their decisions, it means that we are likely to see the tariffs come into effect. tom: what are the potential implications if the tariffs do come into effect? you are sitting there in hong kong. has beijing made it clear what

their response will be? >> yes. we've seen a lot of overtures from beijing in the past year since this proposal was announced. there is a big threat of a trade war escalating between china and the eu. beijing has launched antidumping investigations into brandy as well as pork. the decisions with how these antidumping investigations will go is likely to depend on how eu decides to proceed with tariffs. other than the pork and brandy, there is also hints that beijing would launch actions against large engine cars being imported into china, as well as dairy. if a trade war escalates, it could really hurt the producers of these commodities, as well as companies that work in the auto industry. tom: ok, bloomberg's asia transport report on the details.

we count down to that decision and that vote in the eu on the contentious subject of tariffs on chinese ev's. get a roundup of today's stores you need to know on today's edition of the brick. go to dia we bigo on the terminal -- go to dayb on the terminal. we will be speaking to fed president austan goolsbee after the jobs report. that interview at 3:00 p.m. u.k. time after yesterday he signaled the need for rates to come down significantly from here for the federal reserve. coming up, the g7 warns of a dangerous cycle of attacks and retaliation that risks fueling uncontrollable escalation in the middle east. we will have the latest from the region, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ tom: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." israel says it bombed more then one doesn't hezbollah targets -- a dozen hezbollah targets in beirut as it g7 nations warn against an uncontrolled cycle of escalation in the middle east. the region is bracing for israel's response to iran's meso barrage earlier this week. rosalind mathieson joins me with the details. ros, what do we know at this stage about israel's potential response?

how crucial is this weekend in terms of potential step up in terms of how israel response to what was another historic week for this region? >> basically, a very delicate calculation for israel at this point. what do they do to respond to the ballistic missile strike that iran did on them earlier this week? what's a calibrated response. . it has to be more in the tit-for-tat that happened back in april, so it's going to be a more intense response this time. but again, it needs to be that response that sends that message without tipping it even further into get a higher level of escalation. what does that look like? is it targeting military sites? potentially targeting oil installations inside iran? you can see the oil market is worried about that because that would start to tip us into the question of supply of oil. is that the nuclear side? we have seen the u.s. express a high sense of unease about the

possibility of that. it's very difficult for israel to hit those nuclear sites without the u.s. assisting, so that's probably off the table at this point. but it certainly seems to be they are discussing with the u.s. as well, like, whether it's going to be feasible to strike these oil targets. and again, that's going to be quite an escalation from what we saw previously. tom: slightly confusing and slightly odd, surprising may be comments from u.s. present joe biden on the potential option. talking of iran, central to this whole scenario, the supreme leader is leading prayers today. what do we know about the positioning of iran in the buildup to what looks like an almost certain strike from israel? >> it is quite delicate also for iran. you can see the messaging coming from the ayatollah, obviously directed very much at the people of iran in recent days, sort of deifying hezbollah leaders who have been killed, talking about iran's need to defend itself and

warning clearly about, again, don't come for our nuclear sites because that will take things to a whole new level. so issuing those wings, the right to defend itself and someone, but clearly knowing something is coming and perhaps trying to manage the messaging with the u.s. and israel about what they might tolerate in terms of the kind of response that we might see. we know there are back channels going on stay with the u.s. iran and the u.s. do have those channels. they seem to be open and working. perhaps iran is using that to send messages to israel. these are the things that are going to really kind of escalate things in a way that neither of these countries seem to want at this point. and again, that's really about the nuclear facilities. tom: i just wonder to what extent inside israeli thinking and in terms of the government they feel like they he exposed iran as something of a paper tiger. some of those ballistic missiles got, the summer misdirected, some misfired it seems. when it comes to operations on the ground, israel would frame this a success that they are

having against hezbollah. what do we know about what's happening on the ground in lebanon? >> there were strikes again on beirut overnight so we have seen heavy strikes on beirut at this point, multiple sites being hit, obviously targeting further element of the hezbollah leadership. there are still some of them there, obviously. the question is, who is going to succeed the hezbollah leader was killed? are they going for the next in line? we have seen lots of airstrikes on beirut, israeli troops operating over the border still in lebanon. and those sort of forays seem to be extending. you know, israel talked about a limited and targeted ground operation. days later, it is still going on. we know there are exchanges happening between hezbollah fighters and israeli troops in those areas. the question is, does israel get bogged down over the border? and we see this limited action becoming protracted? there's always the risk of that. what we see is multiple fronts now for israel inside lebanon.

the aerial strikes that are going on. and of course, we are seeing the death toll rise in lebanon as a result. more than one million people already being displaced. what we are seeing potentially is this could escalate towards that similar humanitarian crisis. if you see a large exodus of refugees coming from lebanon. it is having knock on effects that we could see already. tom: more than a million people already made refugees or at least fleeing some of those conflict areas. rosalind mathieson thank you very much indeed on what is the latest transpiring in the middle east in what could again be a crucial weakened for that region. thank you. coming up, we are going to look at how the u.k. became the first g7 nation to phase out coal power. the details on that, coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

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♪ tom: welcome back. the u.k. reached a milestone earlier this week when it became the first g7 member to fully phase out coal from its electricity mix. joining me now is an associate in bloomberg nef's power team for the details on how the u.k. got to this point, what lessons can be learned may be from countries like germany, for example. thanks for joining us. how did the u.k. managed to bring its coal era to an end finally this week? >> the u.k. put into place a very from phaseout target -- a very firm phaseout target that was 2025 at the time. the u.k. also had very old fleet of coal plants so that helped in its favor in terms of phasing out coal. in the earlier years, what

happened was they put into place a carbon emissions limit. coal plants did not have a lot of hours to generate in a year. this led to a first tranche of phaseout. as carbon prices started to rise, it became very expensive to turn on a cogeneration plant, to the point that many -- coal generation plant to the point that many plants were unprofitable. this led to the phaseout on monday. tom: how did they manage to get the balance between phasing out the coal capacity but making sure the u.k. could keep the lights on? >> so, it is a delicate balance indeed. and what u.k. had in its favor at the time was a sizable gas fleet. guess, as we know -- gas, as we know, produces a lot less omissions than coal so that was a useful transition to. the u.k. put into place the capacity mechanism that paid gas plants to make sure they stayed online and are able to support the shutdowns of coal, ensuring a very smooth phaseout.

tom: to what extent, so you talk about the role of gas there is that transition fuel. do you apply the same playbook to gas, using that to transfer away from gas to renewables? to what extent is the playbook around coal now being applied to gas? >> it's not going to be as straightforward as coal because gas for now does not really have an economically viable replacement just yet. it is not at commercial scale. abatement technologies are also not quite up to speed yet. so, the u.k. is going to employ various policies. firstly, to get gas out of the picture, oil needs to abate emissions from guests. this could mean -- from gas. this could mean subsidies or they could follow u.s. markets, which have put tax incentives into place, so there are many options to work towards the phaseout. tom: associate from bloomberg

nef's european power team, thank you very much indeed on how the u.k. managed to phaseout coal completely and it happened this week. may be some lessons for some european partners. if we would that she would like to hear more, downloaded the switch on podcast from wherever you get your podcasts. the bnef summit, where energy,, finance and technology converge kicks off in london next week with a stellar lineup of guests. you can join virtually using the qr code. there it is on your screen. scan. join virtually or in person. it all starts on tuesday. well worth it. there's planning

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tom: good morning. these are the stories that set your agenda. oils biggest jump after joe biden says the u.s. is discussing whether to support israeli strikes. the fed watches, your guide to the monthly jobs dater from the u.s.. and the strike is over, workers resume work ending a free day stoppage across the united states. let's check in on markets in terms of supply chains, could take weeks to work through the free day stoppage.

the countdown is on, estimates at 150,000 and unemployment rate of 4.2. ftse flat, edging. as we build up to the open jobs data could inform whether they go 25 or 50. let's flip the board, strength coming through, on track for the biggest weekly gain in six months. talking of safe havens gold is up so far. 10 year yield 384 could be adjusted, that is the benchmark right now and brent is $77 51

off by 2/10 of 1%. keeping our eyes on oil given risks, let's get back to macro dater and the jobs picture and the pricing around the fed. if the labor market weekends, let's bring in annika guida. looking at 4.2%, does that put a jump on the cut for the fed on the table? annika: it increases the likelihood of a rate cut. fed pushing back against markets and dovish expectations going into your end.

this report will be important. thinking ahead with the port strikes that have been taking place and that will add a mix to the next report where we could see 45 k workers taken off and we could see a more deeper slowdown in the next report so if this comes in below expectations we are stipulating 140 k. if it comes in lower that would increase the likelihood of easing and a wider stocks. tom: leading up to the end of the yeah we will see how that

happens and then 150 basis points of cuts. larry fink thinks the market is over its skis. does a hundred 50 basis points seem reasonable? annika: it depends on the data. we have had a better print on numbers, stronger services print tells us the economy is resilient. the loophole has been manufacturing and services come from a large share, that builds the case for a very aggressive easing cough. it boils down to the labor market, a slowing in hiring but

not a big ship. if we do see any momentum that would give way to a correct expectation of a much aggressive rate hike. tom: on the boe was the market repricing? we saw yields down, was that a rational reaction to the interview or overdone? annika: we are seeing a very sharp shift amongst central banks, communication over the past week. boe is clearly example, at the last meeting communication was clear and in the statement given by bailey it looked like a much

faster pace, hence the market adjusted expectations. the client and the pound -- the decline in the pound. the prime minister has been viewed as hawkish but he believes the bank is not in a position to go ahead with normalization. yen declined, one of the highest level since august so we have seen a sharp turn and reaction to the fed's first move. tom: do these trajectories risk being blown off course by oil?

>> absolutely. we are looking vile one lens and there is external risk and retaliatory impact. any statement as important reaction because the markets is waiting for guidance and we have seen considerable appreciation of prices and so there is always that risk if we have high energy prices elevated that would be inflation expectations. tom: ok, director at wisdom tree

with a forecast of 140,000, jobs dater out today. thank you as ever. she talked about dockworkers suspending their strike. they continue negotiations until i believe january, massive strike creating a backlog of cargo. let's bring in bill faries. the ramifications were assessed, $5 million hit her day resolved after three days. what is left to be negotiated? bill: the cost would be building up to 5 billion or more so that

put pressure to try to get some things done. couple key issues, the unions and the ports argued over wage increases. tentative deal or i guess partial deal will give workers more than 61% pay raise so that has largely been resolved. issues on automation could put people out of work. big issue well past the presidential election. something someone did to get past. tom: you touch on the politics. what -- what are the impacts?

does harris gain on the back that the strike has been resolved? bill: i do not know but she does not lose and that was a major concern, this administration is dealing with middle east conflict, damage from hurricane helene, a court strike on top of that with shortages of goods and 12 days or so to work through the backlog, a big problem for the administration, they very much saw it in their interests. not totally resolved but

salaries are taken care of and they will focus on technology, we will know who the next president is at that point. tom: yep. 60% or so increase in salaries and bill faries with an excellent update and resolution across ports. coming up i will be joined by ce of of puma discussing their latest acquisition. stay with us, this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> welcome back. health care company has

announced technology used by two thirds of all primary and secondary care providers. it is used for remote consultations, we are joined by the ceo. your company is backed by astrazeneca in unicorn territory , what does this tell us going forward? >> mission is care and research, you can make care proactive. as a company you can build certain things but to go through the journey of the patient's from the screening to

consultations is something you may need to partner with others and that is why we are better together and partner with companies. >> giving the ambition to you have the cash to pull the trigger? it is very competitive. >> that is correct, so we launched a platform to launch applications and grow horizontally. massive ambitions but in parallel we would violate tens of companies and partner with them to bring the apple like experience to the patients and providers and health systems. tom: tens of companies you would

be willing to buy. impact of adoption might have to wait. i have to logon at 6:00 a.m. to get an appointment. what are the benefits? >> this is same problem we are trying to solve for patients. patients have really bad experience in the same way that we all deserve mobile and iphones to do communications, taking pictures, have in our files, we really trying to bring does sweet of applications to the patient's so you don't need to wait long time and things can get sorted automatically with the supervision of a doctor rather than the clinic.

you want doctors to spend time on cases they really need to spend their time instead of rushing from one patients to another patients and that is really frustrating. tom: you're lucky if you get 10 minutes with a gp. how do you keep our data safe? guest: one of the most important things for us, software as a medical device, regulated platform, since the beginning we have been very committed to following regulations and process for security, effectiveness. it is embedded into the dna. tom: what are your u.s. ambitions and growth ambitions?

guest: united state is a $4 trillion health care industry and cost of care is important with a lot of opportunity to deploy technology and provide care and enable lot of patients who are not getting the right treatments even in advanced systems to benefit. we have hundred million hypertension patients in the u.s., one out of three. you can totally manage them and avoid heart attack it things that can happen, we can help them and there are other conditions we can do. >> are you on track to be profitable? guest: we set this in vicious

gold and we have performed really well. tom: 300 million u.s. dollars, what are your ipo plans? >> i do not think we will focus on ipo because for us we are really keen to do ipo when we can do big ipo. my question is to get to 10 billion plus and then think about the ipo, but we look at the market, the dynamic and we make a decision. tom: would that take you to the u.s.? guest: we are looking at options all the time and talking to different stakeholders. u.s. is very appealing given the liquidity, access and u.s. are largest market but we will see.

tom: that sounds like you're leaning toward the u.s.. indeed. growth plans around the u.s. market. dan, ceo. ok, next week on daybreak europe we will feature a slew of startups from lamps to deep key, conversations on monday at 6:40 a.m., insights from key players and fascinating founders and startups as well as individuals funding those efforts so do stay tuned for those. other stories this friday, michel barnier has announced tax cuts to cut the budget deficit limited to companies with one billion euros of revenue or more

, individuals on high incomes will pay more under the plans. bloomberg has been told an online fashion retailer shein is starting a formal meeting to gain interest ahead of a london ipo. they are awaiting approvals in china and the u.k.. now our global rankings with a change near the top. mark zuckerberg is the second wealthiest person ahead of emison's jeff bezos and trailing only elon musk. a high of just a mere 206 billion, more than a billion ahead of jeff bezos, there we go. plenty more coming up, stay with us, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we would like to grow and keep unemployment where it is and third quarter shaping up that way but not strong enough to cause resurgence or lead to recession. tom: ok. bill dudley who has been writing about his hard landing views. here is where the focus is in here is what has been happening, blue line indicating how hard jobs are to find.

unemployment 4.2% holding, becoming harder to find jobs now in the u.s.. jay powell does not want to see further deterioration of the labor market so 150,000 is the estimate. if you get 4.3 does that put 50 basis points on the table given what we know about jay powell? that is the softness that has come through. slight cooling of the labor market. let's look at potential impact on the rate trajectory. these are companies that cannot afford their debt pile.

you've had a furred of them not able to make their payments, sitting on 1.3 trillion dollars of debt. yields spreads were crushed and investors moving into the junkie is arts of the market. here is the picture, 150 is the estimate. terminal users can get access through gtv on the terminal. opening trade is next with wells fargo's chief economist and also the robinhood ceo on the polls. stay with us, this is bloomberg. ♪

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anna: i'm anna edwards an hour away from the opening trade. oils biggest one-day