>> this is bloomberg, i'm tom in london. european and u.s. futures climb after snp notches a record earning and oil tumbles. israel will of alluded targeting iran's infrastructure.

u.s. weighing capping sales beyond china of chips. x keir starmer rejects that the u.k. is raising capital gains to the highest as he tries to calm down investors ahead of the budget. more from our interview throughout the hour. ♪ >> it's a big day for earnings but erickson coming through with earnings in terms of numbers, adjusted earnings, 7.3 billion, estimates were a beat.

46.3% for erickson, fourth quarter adjusted margins 47 or 49%. deal kicking in, stock at 29%, 24% in fact. we will watch that at the open. yes we had another record powered by technology. positive session, volatility in chinese stocks.

adding 3/10 of 1%, snp looking to add a 10th of one percent, let's flip the board. caution, patience, euro-dollar softer, we lead up to the ecb decision. gold is at 2642 so let's cross over to avril with a check on the asian markets. avril: positive handle is trickling through with japanese

equities leading the charge, tech cyclicals lifting the nikkei to levels we have not seen since july. ahead of earnings but also weakness in the japanese currency with lels we have not seen since the carry trade unwind. overall stocks are gain but there are a know about of outliers against the backdrop of crude futures but bits and pieces of information on china stimulus reporting china could rai $850 billion in war. to boost economy and against a

backdrop of these megabanks getting their margins squeezed, it seems s oon as this week theyd announce a cut. we are seeing the investment reaction, efforts looking mixed. morstaley say steer clear of china, whatever has been a now -- announced in terms of volatility makes youndthe extent to whtha is determining investors. asian currencies are slumping, worse month since februar of

2023, yen weakness accounts for the gauge and also the dollar story, recalibrating fed expectations. tom: avril out of singapore, looking at the impact. in. d. we have been hearing from wallace that they can approach future cuts with less urgency. >> we can proceed toward a neutral stance. based on judgment that risk to both sides are balanced. tom: ok. let's bring in valerie.

it felt like racing toward an end line, crossing point and now they are pulling on the rains. what do you make of the fed speak. >> we mamba that we got data and market watchers looking for hawkish spin. waller was talking about economic conditions and neel kashkari is not worried. evidence that inflation will continue to fall. string of hot data not changing the message. tom: stocks hitting a record, 46

so far. given what we are hearing can we assume there is further run when? >> listen, uh, um, it sounds like mixed conditions, gained nearly 1%, another record driven by the tech space. record high. you can see how much it has risen, over 200%. notched its first -- first record since june. tom: valerie, thank you very much in. deed.

u.s.-made cap sales to certain countries, limiting ai capabilities. let's bring in annabelle droulers. why is biden looking to these measures, adjustments, now we have details on further restrictions? annabelle: incremental developments based on the end-user program, a mechanism to restrict exports of high and technology so the program expanded to include data centers and could be expanded further to restrict exports to the middle east.

firstly you got a region building out ai and very deep pockets, capacity to fund. also growing relationship with china and u.s. looking to restrict shiners advancements. if chips continue to these third parties they could make their way into the mainland. tom, yeah, we know. i ask talk about potential leverage play that the u.s. is -- is thinking about. are they planning to use it? maybe as leverage. annabelle: it is a tool.

we -- we -- we -- we -- we know companies could be asked to reduce ties with china. one way they can look 2 -- 2 -- 2 -- 2 -- two imply pressure or risk falling behind, another concerned. you've got a question over exports, could it be used by countries to develop applications against the u.s. is another question. of course the concern is how chipmakers respond to these restrictions in nvidia responded to restrictions in china, tweaking to allow it to fall beneath restrictions but if the

white house moves forward it will put its different relationships in play. could put some tension into them and could be difficult to enforce. tom: politics ever present. annabelle, thank you indeed. on economic data we will get jobs dater, live of course, markets pricing in a cut from the bank of england. less certain about december, jobs could tie in. jp morgan on friday, we get earnings from goldman sachs and citigroup, we will give you all the context and sales from lvmh. to what extent are they still facing the china challenge, that

story as well in focus. get a roundup to get your day going in daybreak. go to d.a. why bigo and front and center is the story around restrictions on ai chips. coming up oil is slumping, israel will avoid crude infrastructure and focus on the military. we bring you the details next, this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> welcome back to bloomberg. will under her asher. wti above 71 doll hairs on reports of israel's prime minister telling the white house he is willing to strike the military rather than oil or nuclear facilities. let's bring in joumanna. what does this mean in the region? how seriously should we take

this reporting? joumanna: lots of questions there. we don't have a lot of clarity but what we do know is there have been discussion's. washington post echoing a report suggesting the ration agreement mover israel limiting strikes to the military infrastructure as opposed to causing upheaval and the nuclear option is going after nuclear facilities. what is clear is there has been an have been active discussions as the u.s. keeps their eyes on elections, they don't want to see a huge cobalt and the price

of oil but they've also done two things. supplying israel with sophisticated defense systems, operational in the coming days. this went under the radar but on friday u.s. announced sanctions to hit iran's oil industry and goldman sachs estimated that could hit one million barrels a day. it seems the approach is yes, israel will strike but it is alongside defense boot capabilities coming through and sanctions being applied. tom: kai. so this put pressure, what have been the other drivers of oil?

>> price of oil down 3%, you go back to the fundamentals which is china showing weakness. oil imports they tough showing weakness and declines in china is the largest oil concealers in the world. opec-plus revised downwards their demands and they tend to be more optimistic, they tend to overshot vis-a-vis other think tanks but they've revised down for the third month they now see the demand growth totaling millions of bitter rules to give you context. other think takes are saying

much higher than what the market is penciling in. a mismatch between supply and demand. barrels back in the market in the fourth quarter and further sanctions so if those come to pass they could exert pressure. we talk about tension that could emanate. still some potential for disruptions but what we are seeing is fundamentals continue to weigh. tom: indeed. we will watch for detail and indeed whether they are implemented indeed. joumanna our anchor. german carmakers getting left in the dust by chinese ev makers in

their most lucrative market. the challenges next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we need to find a deal with china. on the one side you compete, you go up but it as they did with us 25 use ago. tom: look at a mayo speaking to all of the crook. demand picks up, all of the

crook joins us now he's been covering this event. talk about what you have been gearing about the european market. where they are facing tariffs, how are they adjusting? >> listen you're struck by how crowded the spaces. stellantis has a bunch of brands right. chinese automakers accompanying and you get the sense that they i'm not slowing down. still room for negotiations but they will not slow down. absolute key market outside of

china, never will touch u.s. market. stellantis partnered up and inverted the german model where the germans own a proportion of it, that is what stellantis is doing and we got a timeline and that is a year and a half away, one of the most concrete timelines but the difference is china did not have a car industry back then. this is a poignant point for the policymakers. tom: as we know it's about dumond and whether that is starting to bottom.

have you picked up on any reason why there may be cause for optimism? oliver: this felt like an ev show for a place where people don't want ev's. no demand. where the rubber hits the road is next year new policy from brussels dictates they need to sell 1/5 of cars in order to not get hit with billions of dollars of fines, 15%, so we spoke to carlos tavarez about policymakers versus the market. carlos: we ask two things to the government. stability, no postponement because we are ethically

committed to fixing the global warming so we ask for a stability from one side and we ask that governments to stimulate the demand. not to help stellantis but to help the consumer. oliver: what we heard, optimism coming back, ev is less expensive than they were. a full recovery? it is too early to tell. tom: indeed. and the ebbing of demand for dvds. after three months in power keir starmer puss back against capital gains tax speculation, that is up next, no libya has

high as 39%, no specific number, trying to assuage whether the u.k. is a bright prospect and how to achieve growth for this u.k. economy coming up. this be bloomberg. ♪

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tom: good morning, i'm tom mackenzie, these are the stories that set your agenda. s&p notch is unknowable record.

oil tumbles on a report is that il will avoid targeting infrastructure. u.s. weighing capping the sale of ai chips, broadening restrictions and keir starmer rejects raising capital gains to calm down jet has -- jitters. let's check in on these markets. record how would by the tech story, nvidia up, european futures pointing higher and ftse

futures up. pressure on commodities. futures are flats. let's flip the board. christopher waller suggesting room for modest cuts and caution , that is coming through from officials. bit ofressure, ecb decision on first day expected to cut. down almost 4%. keir starmer rejected raising capital gains tax to 39%, speaking with bloomberg as he tries to calm down the jitters.

>> discussion has not been about tax. it has been about planning, infrastructure, the apparatus of government. seek not contributing, they're raising it is it your vision, will it be stable for the long-term and the answer is yes. are you prepared to do the tough things on execution and deliverables? that's about the length of time it takes to see a project materialize. we've done a lot of reassurance and we are determined to follow

through for investors and our country in the jobs of the future. >> a lot of people all worried in this vacuum there is quite unknowable of kuraray uses speculation, 39% rate. can you assure people the change will not be significant? you think 39 is off the mark? >> i will not fuel speculation because we can go on until budget day. until budget dying out of it will be revealed. when i came into government we assessed the state of the economy to understand the black

hoe, a real problem. going through processes for a budget. tom: u.k. prime minister. speaking with stephanie flanders's. we are joined by anna from ubs investment bank. let's start with the prime minister talking about the budget and the details around the fiscal steps. should investors priced in a more constrained government? >> yeah, so government facing challenging situation, spending on track around 22 billion above expectations and in terms of the

starting fiscal headroom it is already very tight. it was typed in march and even tighter now. government will announce plans and investment project so against this backdrop the government will come up with a tacky -- tax increase in changes to the physical growth to increase room and give them more space. tom: they continue to push fiscal discipline, a fiscal black hole, a bit of controversy , but you are saying markets are willing to let the government have more borrowing and that will not be punished. anna: markets are getting a bit nervous but when we look back at

the election we have seen strong focus on prudence and it seems the markets are willing to give space. tom: bank of england, markets are pricing in another cut. more uncertainty about december, fewer than two cuts priced in. where do you line up? are they setting up for a mistake? anna: in the context of ecb this looks hawkish, baseline is one more rate cut so november and then pause in december and then gradual next year and then speed up the pace. tom: why, why, why the caution

and is that a risk for the economy? anna: if you look at labor market we are seeing services inflation is high, more stinky than anticipated. and one u.. specific issue in terms of tightness, participation rates are low and we are not seeing people come back quickly enough to ease the tightness, so we think this justifies slow pace of rate cuts from bank of england but we are monetary negative spillovers in terms of potentially quicker easing in terms of labor market, in terms.

so we upgraded our forecast so we expect 1.1% growth this year and then growth for next year unchanged. but given the recent indications and also accounts revisions we flag some downside risks. tom: downside risk for u.k. growth. our opinion columnist marcus said they ecb should go with the bazooka or style,, all the date or is flashing red. anna: our baseline is 25 in the bar to deliver 50 point is high and again we look at the last ecb meeting we have seen sort of comparing we seeing three

changes. data on growth side has been worrying, clear signs of loss of momentum, inflation showing signs of slowdown. print below for the first time and we've seen comments indicating great confidence in terms of wage growth in slow down in services so they are willing to cut but we think they will continue in a gradual mode. tom: will that pull europe out of its economic bunk? >> stick>> we cut our forecast by 30 basis points so we have turned more cautious but we do

stated very clearly we are not turning out right negative. tom: one point 5% for the u.k. is the forecast. indeed. european economist at ubs. now some other stories, italy's government targets euros from firms adjusting thresholds and moving deductions to plug a budget shortfall, the figure is under discussion and nothing has been decided. china enforcing a tax on investment gains by th. wealthy people have been told to conduct assessments and summoned

others, beijing is looking to expand its sauces of revenue. we are three weeks away from u.s. elections and race for the white house is close. donald trump will beats -- be sitting down with john bagels weighed. here with what we can expect is critical. thank you for joining us. talk about what to expect. kriti: in 21 days no surprise even though we are coming off of polls where harris showed a national lead so you can see the fear, early momentum in the summer perhaps fading, anything can happen but in the words of

james cardwell is the economy, stupid. it comes down to tariffs, the key piece of bagels waves interview. talk about the plan, the harris plan to compare the economics, all we have seen is capital gains increasing, similar to president biden although not the same and addressing prices whether groceries, housing, price controls, neither plan is healthy but at the moment clarity seems to be relevant to the world. tom: indeed. the acre of the opening trade

and you can watchn bagels weighed's exclusive interview with trump at p.m. london time, so certainly tune in for that. let's chck back in on the oil markets, the asset classes te biggest move. brent down on the session below 75 ollars a barrel, wti is down. on the back of the groveport that israel has signaled that it will not strike iran's oil infrastructure when it retaliates though reporting suggests israel is keeping its options open so we continue to monitor the mark gets. part of the story is the stimulus on china and the lack ofdetails, a headwind.

we will keep across for you of course this sto coming up, we will take the temperature of venture capital. that is next, this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back. big week with an investment summit, speakingto the prime minister and a report by innovation highlighting how firms are monday health tech sector. i'm joined by simon from hsbc,

thank you for joining us. it seems the funding is that, certainly one of our strengths, what -- what -- what is the deal telling you about appetite for investors? guest: there is deployment and u.k. investing against last year and also 2019 and 2020 and 21, 22, etc.. second point is around capital, the data is telling us 9 billion has been raised on a traject to hit 12 million and that would

reord year even surpassing 2021 s feels like a good place. tom: to -- to -- to -- to --be clear, which parts are attracting this? >> u.k. is setting itself up as a hub. that is actual and the largest fundings were in life sciences. three in biotech and then the largest round was in health tech into flow health, a female

technology ferty app that showcases how strong the sector is. >> how much is the early stage of funding and how do we sit in growth? >> what i'm excited about is a great cap stage, those companies that have just come out of the earnings stage into the next level, that is important. it is the gm in the middle of the sandwich. you need a different size of investor at another level so i'm excited. in terms of growth, the scale, 70% of investment yet to die

that here today is investors. we need investors to become world so i'm particularly excited. tom: it signals enough investment coming through. how do we change that? >> the appointment is positive. and then taking it through is a really good high-profile for the government to help attract firm investment to scale up businesses and we've heard about policies and pension so it is

the action. tom: when you speak to your clients what is the sense in terms of founders about capital markets? are you relying on acquisitions? >> a two-year hiatus and now more capital deployed, so those companies have got themselves in order and are looking around the future. and we have m&a activity, that will happen ahead of any uptick.

i speak to clients and investors and they are very excited. what i would say is any change should attract investment into the u.k.. tom: thank you indeed, simon from hsbc, plenty more coming up, this is bloomberg. ♪ starting a business is never easy, but starting it eight months pregnant.. that's a different story. i couldn't slow down. we were starting a business from the ground up. people were showing up left and right. and so did our business needs. the chase ink card made it easy. when you go for something big like this, your kids see that. and they believe they can do the same. earn unlimited 1.5% cash back on every purchase with the chase ink business unlimited card from chase for business. make more of what's your

tom: welcome back. looking ahead to banks, reporting later today, focus is on to extent you get earnings from s&p in magnificent seven, they beat in the last quarter but expectations have been cut.

expectations still pretty solid and s&p expectations have been edging lower. how does that change and will it fuel rotation? that is worth thinking about as we build up through the banks later today exposure to trump stocks or stocks that may benefit from a trump presidency. regional banks, crypto stocks. goldman sachs have a basket focused on stocks that may benefit from a democrat or a republican and moves into the

trump basket have been there. polls have a slim lead. bloomberg subscribers can get access to these charts on the terminal. at 5 p.m. we will speak to trump speaking to bloomberg to john bagels weighed, so tune in. opening trade ixt. this is bloomberg. ♪

anna: good morning from london. we are in our way from the opening trade. oil prices tumble after the washington post reports that israel has agreed to -- while opec's global oil demand forecasts or cup for a third month. european futures edge higher after another record high on wall street fueled by technology

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