joe: thank you for being with us on a special edition of balance of power on bloomberg tv and radio standing by for an important conversation. it bloomberg's editor-in-chief john micklethwait will, in a short time interview former president donald trump in connection with the economic club of chicago. for those with us on bloomberg tv and youtube is there is a live view of the room with the big a crowd standing by waiting for the conversation. it's just three weeks until the election. we are monitoring market action ahead of the interview to set the baseline. as always we go to bloomberg's abigail doolittle in new york. how does it look? abigail: we have the s&p 500 down about .4% and the nasdaq

100 down more. one area that is super interesting that does pertain to former president donald trump is chinese tech. it's down a whopping 5.7% more than 15% from the recent high. it could be in fear of some tariff reprisal. he put a lot of tariffs in place against china before. that's one of the pressures we are seing. countering that what is interesting is the trump trade, highly taxed companies like apple and berkshire hathaway are higher with apple hitting at all-time high. one reason to think it is connected to the markets saying they think that former president donald trump could have a better chance of winning in november, the predicted odds we have followed since july that have whipsawed up and down come up with donald trump leading 42% compared to kamala harris at

50%. in addition when we look at republican stocks versus democratically linked stocks republican stocks are hgher. i think that has a lot to do with the expectation the former president may in fact want to cut taxes instead of letting it go to the 35 percent it could reach if nothing is done next year. kailey: that's something to watch. we are up three weeks from the election. at what point would you expect a tick up in market activity other than what you have outlined for us? when will we see real attention being paid beyond the typical trump trades? maybe what we are already seeing in the vix? when does it set in? abigail: if there was a true sign either of the two candidates would win ahead of the elections i think that would be positive for markets because they would have certainty.

on the other hand if it stays tight or gets tighter into november you could see the opposite, a bit of a selloff. we have been seeing a fair amount of trading around the election without it being over. in, for instance, the vix that we love to talk about, the gauge of uncertainty. the odds around the election, the curve, the futures for the election hovering right around 20 telling you investors aren't complacent. we have oil setting off. part of that has to do with middle east tensions getting a little break. china last week, the world's largest user of natural resources, not creating the policy stimulus they want. i think there is a big piece with china and former president donald trump and that is a reason we are seeing we can is there bleeding into the markets and has been for a little bit in certain sectors. kailey: bloomberg's abigail doolittle, thank you so much. we want to talk more about china

and turned to bloomberg's michael shepard that leads coverage of technology and strategic industries. as we consider what we may hear from donald trump china we know about tariffs and the kind of policy he is likely to pursue. we don't know as much about the tariff policy kamala harris may pursue. the administration she has been part of is hawkish on china with exports and ship restrictions we have learned more about in the last 24 hours. china is a focal point for both campaigns. michael: very much so. i am glad you brought up that context. abigail mentioned a softness in china tech. the broader question that both candidates need to answer is what will their posture be towards china? kamala harris has kept in largely the tariff regime donald trump initiated in office and in the biden administration unveiled a series of export

restrictions aimed at curbing china's access to advanced technology. how much will that be kept in place? for donald trump, what will he do beyond tariffs? will he use trade restrictive measures like export controls too or seek to roll them back because of business pressure? joe: i want to ask you about that very thing. do we have visibility in that area when it comes to trump 2.0 or is it something john micklethwait could bring forth? the biden administration is considering clamping down on more than china, on countries in the middle east when it comes to nvidia chips and other sensitive technologies. michael: the scoop by mackenzie hawkins was a terrific story and signals that biden administration is taking its

foot off the gas when it comes to trying to manage and control access to advanced ai technologies being built here by other american companies. and the extent to which other countries and their businesses are able to access it, what happens next? trump has a questions to answer and we hope our boss john micklethwait is able to get answers there. so far the trump campaign has not gone chapter and verse on very much of this at all. kailey: i wonder, as we consider the lifecycle the interview will have when it is off the air on bloomberg tv and radio and cut into pieces and on tiktok, will that come up as well? do we understand how trump is thinking about questions on tiktok and chinese misinformation? michael: when asked about tiktok in the past he has changed his position completely, reversing it from a desire to ban the app in 2020. we -- we remember in the middle of the pandemic when everybody was enjoying the app as a little bit of a respite from being locked down and the moment of

joy, for some people, especially young people. but there were concerns raised about the national security implications of a chinese owned company gathering information on american users. he put in an executive order banning the app that was overturned by courts. fast forward couple years. he changed his mind in part because he sees tiktok now as a competitor to other social media platforms including those operated by meta, instagram and facebook. joe: thank you. bloomberg's michael shepherd with us on a special edition of balance of power. coming up, the live interview we are standinbyor t former president donald trump in chicago with a bloomberg editor john micklethwait with the questions in partnership with the economic club of chicago. stay with us. we are about to begin live and in full on bloomberg tv and radio.

kailey: welcome back to a special edition of balance of power on bloomberg tv and radio. alongside joe mathieu. we are waiting for editor-in-chief john micklethwait's interview with former president donald trump in connection with the economic club of chicago. this stage is set. the audience has gathered. we are about to see a conversation, notably, not a speech like we have seen from give at economic clubs in other cities. it is an interview where he could face tough questions about policy proposals. joe: we are hoping for a

spirited back-and-forth and hopefully new ideas for how to pay for policy proposals donald trump brought forth over the past couple weeks. as we stand by for them to take the stage we assemble our signature political panel, rick davis partner at stonecourt capital along with jeanne sheehan-zaino political science professor at iona university and a senior democracy fellow at the scene debt -- center for the study of the presidency and congress. rick, there are a couple audiences donald trump could speak to today at a couple strategies. what would be your advice to him for connecting to wall street? rick: i think he obviously wants to be the guy that really promotes the economic growth of the country. one thing i haven't heard much of that is a big issue is rolling back regulations. the biden administration has been thinking of regulation. not only has he been the kingdom of organized -- the king of

organized labor but he has not seen a regulation he does not love. there has been a massive increase since the trump administration in regulation. earlier in the campaign trump talked a lot about that, pledging to roll it back, cut red tape and allow government to get out of the way of business. we haven't heard that lately. nowadays it is more tax cuts, more tariffs, more on the side of stimulus then getting government out of the way. i would love him to give a full throated explanation as to how much he will go after government regulation in this interview. kailey: one thing we have heard from him consistently is drill baby drill, that he would like to do you regulate the energy industry and that is a potential solve for the country's inflation problem even as we have seen inflation moving more towards the fed at target. do voters need more justification or explanation as

to how drilling more could translate into prices that they face -- at night -- not just at the gas pump -- but grocery stores, housing, and other places in the economy? jeanne: i think he has been effective in that messaging. one of his key advisors, in that area, has talked a lot about that. it has been effective and i think we will hear more of it. what i think he needs to talk about has to deal with calming people on the fans who liked his trump economic policy the first administration but look at the heightened rhetoric this campaign cycle and wonder, is this heightened rhetoric, and what he is proposing, from the tariffs, the mass deportation, whether those kinds of things will create a calm business environment in which they can invest in the way they want to. i think a lot of it has less to do with what he actually says dan how he comes across able to

reassure people on the fence that one donald trump 1.0 but aren't sure if they will get at this time around. joe: what is going through donald trump's head? he spent 35 minutes playing ymca, sinead o'connor, and a dj routine at a rally last night that was stopped after a couple questions. what is his view of the game we called the campaign now? rick: renting space in donald trump's mind is dangerous. but we can learn a little. a week ago he was in detroit at the detroit economic club and he went on for two hours espousing a lot of new policy areas. i think in his mind he is in a very similar policy mode as i believe vice president harris is. that is, piecing together other gimmes i can put out for certain groups. in this case it was a motor city, detroit, we will get the

car business back in and i will start putting together tax cuts for stimulating car sales. he is very specific with that kind of thing. joe: we will hear this happen live and unfiltered now. rick davis and jeanne sheehan-zaino will stay with us throughout the hour. the vice chair of the economic club of chicago is introducing our editor in chief john micklethwait. we are bring you to the room. it is the intro to the intro in chicago. when they get started we will stick with this. you will hear the conversation live and in full. let's listen as a john micklethwait is introduced ahead of his conversation with former president donald trump live from chicago on bloomberg tv and radio. >> we are hopeful vice president harris will join us as well. one important note. this program will be live on bloomberg platforms and the ecc

youtube channel. we asked during the program the room stayed quiet while we are broadcasting. ok. now, onto the reason we are all here today. i will keep my introduction brief. so that we have maximum amount of time for today's interview. the economic club of chicago has been fortunate to go host the event with bloomberg news led by editor-in-chief john micklethwait. born and educated in the u.k., john started his career at chase manhattan bank before becoming a journalist at the economist. and later, it's editor. then, bloomberg editor-in-chief in 2015. he is the uthor of books including the wake-up call, why the pandemic exposed to the weakness of the west and how to fix it. there is no better person to lead a discussion about global

business, politics, and the economy. join me in welcoming bloomberg editor in chief john micklethwait. john: thank you, claire. thank you to the economic club of chicago. thank you david, particularly. i want to say two things at the beginning. first, for the rcord, and for the people watching on television, the economic club of chicago and bloomberg both invited vice president harris to a similar interview about her economic plans and she has declined so far. and to set parameters about the interview we will focus on busines and the economy partly because th s a business audience but also because voters

insist the economy is the main issue that matters when they vote. . on that note, let me invite to the stage, president trump. [applause] >> i like that crowd. that is a nice group of people. ground member: welcome to chicago. >> thank you. >> president trump, thank you for doing this. the business people of chicago, like everywhere else, they like a lot of things you want to do in terms of tax cuts and some spending proposals.

but, like many business people they are often worried about the cost. the committee for a responsible federal budget, a bipartisan outfit put out predictions the other day. if you add up all of the promises you have made your plans would add $7.5 trillion to the debt, more than twice the total for vice president harris. you are on course to push debt up to 150% of gdp. this is a very busins audience. why should we trust you with >> that? because we8 are about growth. she has no growth whatsoever and we are all about growth. we will bring companies back to our country. today as i was driving over i saw old beautiful empty steel mills and factories falling down. some have been converted to senior citizens homes. that won't do the trick. we will bring the companies back. we will lower taxes further for companies that will make their product in the usa.

we will protect those companies with strong tariffs because i am a believer in tariffs. i am not sure you are. i don't think you are. but i congratulate you on your career. to me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff. it's my favorite word. it needs a public relations firm. to help it. but to me it is the most beautiful word. >> tariffs, do you think that will bring in the revenue? the bipartisan peterson institute says it will only bring in $200 billion, barely the cost of two of your promises. >> for what company are you talking about, ok? i brought in the tariffs. i was just getting started. then covid came. which -- i tell you what -- i did a very good job in covid. nobody knew what the hell it was. i call it the china virus because i like being more accurate. when that came we got hundreds of billions of dollars from

china alone. i had not started yet. tariffs are two things. you look at it. number one it is for protection of the companies we have here. and, the new companies that will move in. we will have thousands of companies coming into the country. we will grow it like it has never grown before. we will protect to them when they come in. we won't have somebody undercut them. i could give you an example of this if you like me to? >> give me a quick example. >> i just found out about it. i have been talking about this for the last year. about detroit, how horrible it has been. it is just horrible. we have been talking about detroit coming back for 40 years and it has never come back and it is very dependent on the car industry. they have lost 60% of their business over a long period of time. i found out, a friend of mine builds auto plants. that is what he is good at. he does not want to build an

apartment. he builds the biggest in the world. for the last year and a half, if anybody has heard me speak, i was talking about mexico being a tremendous challenge for us now. china is building massive auto plants in mexico. they will build them. or they will take those cars and sell them to the u.s.. very near the border. they will have all of the advantages and none of the disadvantages. that will be the end of michigan. it will be the end, frankly, of south carolina. it will be the end of everything. i said about nine months ago, do you know what? i want you to do me a favor john britt i don't want to give his last name because he might not like it. i said, i want to see an auto plant. i want to see where you press a button and everything works. i want to see one of the big ones. i said, i want to go to michigan. i want to go to someplace in the united states. he said we can't do that, we aren't building anything big in the united states. we don't build the big ones

here. i said where you build the biggest ones? he said in mexico. the giant plants. we are building plants bigger than any in the world. in mexico, i said. you mean, you will make cards cheaply and sell them into the u.s. and they won't put michigan out of business? i don't know anything about that. all i do is build the plans. if we go to mexico i will show you the biggest plant in the world. that was nine months ago. i saw him. i talk about it all the time because i think it is a serious threat to our country, not only autos, but other things. i saw him two days ago at another very nice club. like this, except, i think you people are probably even wealthier. [laughter] this was in detroit, which was appropriate. i was showing him all sorts of charts. it's just gone down. it's terrible. i saw him. i said, how are you doing, how have you been?

i said, could i ask you, how are those plants you mentioned, the giant plants in mexico? how is that coming? have you finished it? no, sir, they abandoned the project when they heard you were running. they abandoned the project when they saw you were winning and doing well. [applause] i told them. i said it publicly. they aren't going to sell one car into the united states. if i run this country, if i am going to be president of the country i will put a 100%, 200%, two thousand percent tariff. they won't sell one car into the u.s.. we won't destroy our country. because i know you are an anti-tariff guy but i am the exact opposite. there is no other way i could have stopped that other than, what am i going to do come and

negotiate with mexico, with china? you won't get anything from them. i will put 100, 200, 300, the highest tariff in history. i will stop them from ever selling a car t the u.s.. i saw the guy by accident. he said, sir, they have abandoned it. by the way, they built foundations. they were really rocking. they thought they would do it. i thought i would win. i tell you this. if i don't win, those factories will wipe out this country. they are the biggest factories ever built for cars. they will run -- wipe out our country. if she wins, and she does not know what she is doing, she is doing, she won't be thinking about, every speech i made having to do with cars. every speech i made having to do with tariffs i mentioned our country is being threatened by mexico. now, all of those things, beyond even the car companies, all those things are now dead. they are dead. i asked, will they start? probably not, they are dead at

the door now. >> president trump, you have talked a lot about tariffs. look at the american economy. 40 million jobs rely on trade accounting for 27% of gdp. if you cut that off that will affect many many business people here. tariffs have another side. is that something you have to acknowledge? >> no. >> you could be plunging america into the biggest trade war. >> there are no tariffs. >> there are tariffs already. >> all you have to do is build your plant in the u.s. and there are no tariffs. >> a lot of jobs rely on foreigners coming here. you will basically stop trade with china. you are talking about a 60% tariffs on that. 100%, 200% on things you don't like, 10%, 20% on the rest of the world. that will have a serious effect on the overall economy. yes, you will find some people

that will gain from individual tariffs. the overall effect could be massive. >> i agree. it will have a massive effect. it will be a positive affect, not a negative effect. i know how committed you are to this and it must be hard for you to spend 25 euros -- years for you talking about tariffs as negative and have somebody explain to you you are totally wrong. [laughter] this country has no chance. >> 40 million jobs is a lot. >> they are all coming back. >> those are 40 million jobs in america that rely on trade. >> john deere, great company, announced about one year ago they will build big plants outside the u.s.. right? they will build them in mexico. >> you threatened tariffs and they stopped. >> that's right. i said if john doerr -- john deere build those plans they aren't selling anything into the u.s.. they announced yesterday they

won't build the plants. i kept the jobs here. john deere will stay here. i will tell john deere if you build outside the u.s. -- you can come if you want. for instance india is a very tough country. it's not only china. you know, china is, i would say, probably the toughest. but you know it is very tough? the european union. our beautiful european countries, wonderful, wonderful. you add them up and they are almost the size of us. they treated us so badly. we have a deficit. i said to angela merkel when she was there. she is not there anymore. i wonder why. when she was there i said, angela, how many chevrolets do we have in berlin. why, donald, you have none. how many forwards do we have in frankfurt? i don't know. none. i said, that's right. you how many cars we have? mercedes-benz, bmw, volkswagen. millions and millions of cars. then i said phone products. they don't want our phones.

they don't want anything from us. we have deficits that are crazy. we won't have them anymore. we will put tariffs on them. do you know what they can do? the mercedes-benz will start building in the u.s.. they have a little bit. do you know what they really are? assembly like in south carolina. they build everything in germany and assemble it here. they get away with murder. they say we are building cars. they don't build cars. they take them out of a box and assemble them. you can have a child do it. >> let's come back to the europeans for a second. what about consumers. >> they will be the biggest beneficiaries. >> critics say you're tariffs will be a national sales tax. >> no. >> $3 trillion of imports. you will add tariffs to every one of them pushing up costs for other people that want to buy foreign goods. >> no, not going to happen. >> simple mathematics. >> it is, b