tom: good morning, this is bloomberg "daybreak: europe." israel launches strikes targeting hezbollah's economic strongholds in lebanon. prime minister netanyahu weighing plans to attack iran after a drone explodes near his private residence. shares in china again after the

nation's banks cut lending rates, adding to stimulus hopes, while middle east tensions push gold to a record high. just over two weeks from the u.s. election. teslas ceo elon musk offers controversial one million dollar handouts in key states. we have the latest on the race for the white house. tom: happy monday, we're checking on these markets after six straight weeks of gains for u.s. stocks. the focus still on the middle east tensions, but as well in the mix for investors, a massive week for earnings with tesla and boeing in the u.s. and the likes of sap and deutsche bank here in europe. lloyds i'm the u.k.'s welcome the european future set for a

modest losses down 0.1 percent, ending friday in positive territory, ending the day up 0.2%. ftse 100 future is pointing to gains of 0.2%. s&p futures after that fresh record on friday currently flat. just below that 6000 level for the s&p, currently 590 five. nasdaq futures modest losses of a 10th of a percent. let's lacrosse asset. last i checked the u.s. benchmark was unmoved at 4.08. euro-dollar at 1.08, softer on the single currency. brent up 0.5%, you can tie that in the middle east tensions but after a drop of almost 8% last week, something of a turnaround in oil. gold fresh records. how may times we say that this year question mark 30% year today. currently 2729 on the yellow metal. to those middle east tensions now. israel's military is taking aim

at hezbollah's financial arm in lebanon. it has issued evacuation warnings to civilians, as it sees to hit the group's economic strongholds. the unit serves as hezbollah is alternative banking system and allows the iran-backed up to function. joining us is our reporter in jerusalem dan williams. what is israel trying to achieve with this new kind of attack on hezbollah? >> this would appear to be the latest in what is a rolling, intensifying israeli campaign aimed at hitting hezbollah hard. decapitating his leadership, degrading its leadership capabilities, ultimately bringing the group to back away from the israeli border and allowing its residents who had to flee hezbollah fired the last year or so. over the weekend, the israeli foreign ministry used a biblical simile, he talked about this being like 10 plagues of exodus.

meaning hit your enemy hard until your enemy relents and in this case, let my people go would actually be let my people go back to their homes in northern israel. i think the israeli government military will now be trying to judge the extent to which this is registered in hezbollah's pockets, having already hit hezbollah personnel and weaponry, in the hope that this might be what will finally bring the group to back down. tom: and this is in relation to the proxy of iran, as many would view it, so the attack continues now on the economic and financial infrastructure. the conversations, the debate happening at pace it seems in israel about attacking iran directly. do we know if a decision has been made, dan? >> we don't, and this is quite extraordinary. we have had three weeks of open telegraphing up of what israelis

call imminent significant painful retaliation against iran for its ballistic missile attack. nothing has happened yet, a lot of talk. an israeli security cabinet minister on the radio this morning after four hours after that meeting, did not give many details. she said the conversation focused on the long-stalled hostage talks, the hostages held in gaza as part of its attack on october 7 last year that started this entire conflict. there is in them outside chance that they might try to leverage the threat of attack on iran to force iran to compel them to put pressure on hamas to become more flexible on the hostage deal, however formally, the israelis are saying there will be retaliation. not saying how or when. another clock on their minds as the u.s. election clock. i imagine this u.s. administration doesn't want that to happen before the election, it could upend the prospects of

kamala harris winning it, but that is not being said publicly by any official on either side. tom: clearly, the fighting continues in gaza as well. we have seen more casualty numbers over the weekend. talk to us about how the death of yahya sinwar has changed the operations of israel on the ground. >> this was a dramatic loss for hamas. they lost their overall leader and the man who currently masterminded the hamas attack that began this whole war. even though there is ample evidence that hamas given visa giving and dropping off of its attacks and rocket attacks on israel, there is one pocket of resistance in the north of the gaza strip in jebaliyah where the israelis have been going for the third of fourth time on the ground to root out those hamas members, new recruits and so on.

a large number of palestinian casualties. though israel says it has been targeting command centers. over the weekend, israel lost one of its highest ranking officers of the war, a colonel leading an armed brigade in that battle, two of his soldiers were killed the day before, yesterday he was killed apparently while dismounted he and seven other tank crew members were hit by an ied that had been planted by hamas. stiff resistance in at least one part of the gaza strip. hamas is showing that it is dogged. the overall picture is that hamas has lost militarily. the question is if it has lost the grassroots support of palestinians in the gaza strip and elsewhere. tom: then williams, bloomberg's reporter in jerusalem, thank you very much. the latest out of the middle east on what could be a pivotal week for that region. let's cross over to asia right now. avril hong standing by in

singapore. avril: today we are looking at how investors are assessing the economic prospects for the u.s. and china. the region's benchmark erasing gains from earlier on in the session. chinese banks today did cut their low crime rates, something the pboc governor had outlined last month, but at the upper end of the range with 25 basis points of cuts for the one year and five-year low prime rate, this represent a quickening o the pace of easing, and the onshore stock market, that is where we see the upper performance today. the key question remains whether chinese stocks can maintain momentum. just weeks to go ahead of the u.s. election. the csi 300 has pulled away from the peaks we saw earlier this month. that was not just a risk potentially for stockmarkets, obviously, for currency traders that is something they will be keeping close watch on.

overall it is a story of you on weakness but when you look at the economies that are sensitive to chinese growth, korea, thailand for example, those currencies could also come under pressure. one of the nuances i would highlight is when you look at what options imply volatility is telling us, traders seem to think that for onshore renminbi, we could see lower volatility around the time of the u.s. election. this speaks to their belief that the pboc will help limit fluctuations in the chinese currency. tom: great market update coming through from avril hong. thank you very much indeed. finance ministers and central bank chiefs from around the world are gathering in washington today for the start of the imf world bank meeting. analysis by the imf has found global public debt is set to reach $100 trillion by the end

of this year. global equities though continuing on a tear. for more, let's bring in bloomberg's valerie tytel. what is the warning on the global debt pile and does it prime the bond vigilantes? >> if he the equity market is still chairing all this government spending. the imf in his paper last week said global debt to gdp could reach 93% by year end. but the s&p 500 isn't deterred. it is on for six straight weeks of gains, the longest run for the s&p this year. another thing on the move i want to mention is gold. it has moved nearly 4% in the last few weeks since the beginning of october. it has hit record highs again overnight. there are many questions over what's been driving this. is it haven demand, asian central bank demand,? we are seeing at about $20,000 per ounce, up another 0.3% so

far in the overnight trade. i want to mention bitcoin. it has been on the move. up 10% in the last week. some are claiming this could also be haven demand. it could be more of a trump trade as the market thanks there is a better regulatory environment that could come for cryptocurrencies on a trump win but it flirted with the $70,000 level mark overnight. it is a bit off of that but still a strong weekend for the bitcoin trade. tom: closing in on that $70,000 level. we will see if there is further upside. valerie tytel with that view on the global debt pile how markets may be thinking about that. tomorrow an exclusive interview with the ecb president christine lagarde. you not miss that conversation 3:00 p.m. u.k. time. this week as we have mentioned, the imf world bank meetings kickoff.

on tuesday, it's the brics summit, so a touch on emerging markets at a time when investors starting to question how far the federal reserve will go in cutting rates. we will see with the reader crosses to the economies of the brics, brazil, russia, india, china and south africa. wednesday european earnings season kicks off. number of banks reporting out of europe. lloyds banking group in the u.k., deutsche bank as well, out of germany the industrials and carrefour in france. you can get around up the stories you need to know in today's edition of daybreak. terminal subscribers can go to dayb on the terminal. stories today are focused on what we're seeing in terms of the upside for the yellow metal. the middle east tensions and how that is being interpreted. the u.s. election continues to be in focus. talking of which, we are just 15 days to go.

we will bring you the latest on the race for the white house. as elon musk makes a surprising intervention. his largess will be in focus in the next ole minutes. this is bloomberg. ♪ starti is never easy, but starting it eight months pregnant, that's a different story. with the chase ink card, we got up and running in no time. earn unlimited 1.5% cash back on every purchase with the chase ink business unlimited card

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tom: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." with 15 days to, kamala harris and donald trump's campaigns are fighting for votes door by door in pennsylvania.

the vice president criticizing her opponent's lack of decorum as the race enters its final stretch. >> there is this backward notion that somehow the measure of the strength of a leader is based on who you beat down. instead of what we know which is that the real measure of the strength of a leader is based on who you lift up. tom: let's bring in bloomberg's opening trade anchor, kriti gupta up. we have had a reminder of how close the race is in that effort that has been put in by republicans and democrats in these key states. a bet that trump will be victorious. what he think stand in this race? >> neck-and-neck a, we are 15 days from this election at the voter booth. yet you are seeing no real momentum from either side. this is a stark change from over the summer for one kamala harris

was given the nomination. she had this major surge in momentum, in national polls, she was leaving as high as seven percentage points, that has all been pared back. initial social media momentum has pared its own bets in that way. and former president trump made that ground. as you said, it only comes down to those swing states which is why pennsylvania is so crucial. political strategists will say the popular vote doesn't matter, it comes down to what happens in pennsylvania, or things like union votes or catering to demographics that previously have not made historical elections. the female vote, this is one for which there is no historical precedent to show where we should be looking. in these last days, they tend to move so widely each day, it is very hard to tell. tom: i wonder to what extent elon musk may be able to move the needle for trump. the stories around cash

handouts. this is not a story that i normally associate with the u.s. i'm thinking of thailand, historically leaders have handed out cash to help for voters, but this is happening in the u.s. is this even legal? >> at the moment it is legal because it is being done through a super pac. for international context, $1 million for a swing vote that is registered every day going into the election if that voter has signed on to a petition that one calls for the right to free speech, which elon musk has been vocal about at x, but also the right to bear arms. and if they sign onto this, they are basically in a lottery system for winning $1 million. it does bring up some questions about legality. given that this is just been announced, they have not gone

after it. we know campaign financing rules to allow things like that if they are done through the right vehicles. tom: i will tie this to two of your passion projects. the trump trade. talk to us about how that has developed? >> the betting odds are where you will see most of the action. the wall street journal talking about one player putting $30 million into the pool for donald trump. that being said, the players are not i am a liquid market, so be careful with that one. in the regular markets it is largely seen as an inflation trade in the long run but the reason that has been pared back as opposed to previous iterations of a donald trump risk in markets is a lot of measures that would be inflationary requires congressional approval, tariffs being the exception, but what he says on the campaign trail and in person is different. you are seeing more of the kamala harris trade when it comes to keeping things status quo, certain things like pharma

pricing that in. tom: a reminder that congress will be significantly important, whoever wins at the white house. kriti gupta with the latest with 15 days to go into that crucial vote in the u.s. we will bring you what to expect from third-quarter earnings. a massive week on the earnings front. we will look ahead to the major european banks that will be important -- reporting this week, including lloyd's, barclays and natwest in the u.k., deutsche bank in germany and swedbank as well. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak europe." taiwan's premier says the government is open to the latest

nuclear technology to meet surging power demand from chipmakers. he also told us how taiwan aims to diversify its economy beyond just its lucrative high-tech sector. >> taiwan's economic resiliency comes from the partnership we have with friendly countries. domestically we have a strong vertically integrated supply chain. this is why we believe taiwan can play a crucial role in the democratic supply chain. we are heavily reliant on high-tech industries especially in the rapidly developing semiconductor sector. for taiwan's economy to achieve comprehensive of growth, we cannot rely solely on high-tech industries. that slightly proposed a dual axis transformation for small and medium enterprises. we aim to help our traditional industries and small to medium enterprises enter the ai era. we will use government resources to assist them in adopting ai

applications and integrating with this industry, allowing taiwan's economy to grow comprehensively. >> mr. premier, the u.s. will have an election. it is just weeks away. former president trump previously said that taiwan to chip business -- took chip business from the u.s. and asked taiwan to pay protection fees. should taiwan continue to allow semiconductor manufacturers like tsmc to build factories overseas? >> taiwan also needs to rely on advanced countries ram new technologies and equipment. i often say the government has responsibly to industries and taiwan has responsibility to the world. >> mr. trump also said taiwan should increase military spending to 10% of gross domestic product. i wonder if that is possible in your view. >> time one a very large

neighbor with significant ambitions toward it, so taiwan must take responsibility for our sovereignty and national security. in next years budget, we have allocated more than 640 billion taiwan dollars for defense, this will bring our defense spending to 2.6% of gdp. while we cannot allocate 10% of gdp to defense in one go, we have increased the budget compared to the past. we hope the world will recognize taiwan's determination and provide greater support. we are maintaining not only taiwan's security but the peace and stability of the entire indo-pacific region. >> you mentioned artificial intelligence earlier. and given the importance of ai and how fast it is expanding, there is a debate about electricity supply.

i'm just wondering do you think new nuclear power technology is an option for taiwan that you can consider? >> we know that many other countries are actively developing various forms of nuclear energy. currently we expect taiwan will have no issues with power supply before 2030. our nuclear power plants have been decommissioned and operations are stopping. this is because we need to prepare for future nuclear technology developments and respond to any potential legal changes in taiwan. when we take the next step forward and reconsider the existing power plants, we will need sufficient manpower. even though our plants are being decommissioned, the personnel must not be dispersed. they must remain to address new technologies or solve current issues. tom: taiwanese premier speaking

with bloomberg's editor-in-chief emeritus. tomorrow we will have a conversation with the asml ceo as part of the bloomberg tech conference. that after their shock cut to their outlook on dwindling demand for some of their lithography machines. concern about the slowing semis space. tune in for that occlusive interview tomorrow at 9:00 a.m. u.k. time. u.k. tax authorities are taking a tougher approach to calling back debt from collapsing businesses. sovereignty specialists say it is part of a government bid to squeeze an extra 5 billion pounds in revenue. corporate rescues are more difficult with the increased use of debt collectors ahead of the labour government's budget next week. bloomberg understands that cdn are is near a deal to take control of santa fe's -- sanofi's consumer health unit.

sanofi and the u.s. buyout firm are set to announce exclusivity on the deal as early as today. striking boeing workers are to vote on a pay deal as the struggling planemaker releases results. we bring you the latest on that negotiation. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ow! whoa! watch where you're going. yeah mom, pay attention. what if it's a concussion? hang on, i'll look it up. uh... i'm probably fine... probably? we noticed something wasn't right and got her to a doctor. i thought i was okay, but i had a concussion. sometimes, it's hard to tell on your own. don't mess with your melon.

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tom: good morning. i am tom mackenzie in london. these are stories that set your agenda.

strikes targeting hezbollah's strongholds in lebanon. benjamin netanyahu weighing plans to attack iran after a drone explodes near his private residence. shares in china higher after the bank s cuts lending rates, leading to stimulus hopes. while middle east tensions push school to a record high. plus, just over two weeks to the u.s. election. elon musk offers controversial $1 million handouts in key states. we will give you the latest on the race for the white house. let's check the markets. european futures off slightly after the gains that came through friday, and another week and record for u.s. stocks. six straight weeks of consecutive gains for the s&p and a fresh record high by the close on friday. the ftse 100 futures up currently 0.1% at 8390 nine. s&p futures currently flat after

that record on friday. nasdaq futures pointing lower by zero point 1%. the earnings story in focus with boeing and tesla and sap, deutsche bank in europe. the u.s. 10year currently at around 4.0. that is what has been yielded on the benchmark. not a lot of movement on treasuries this mornin. your-dollar at 1.08. oil up 0.5%. gold at fresh records, up 0.2%. to one of those earnings stories and details around the negotiation on the labor front. boeing and the union representing 33 thousand striking workers have hammered out a tentative accord that includes a wage increase of 35%. that is over four years. a ratification vote is set for wednesday, the same day as the company's earnings. let's bring in our global editorial leader in aviation for

the details. how much does the deal move the needle for the workers at boeing? >> good morning. on paper, it moves it by five percentage points. we had come from a second offer that was 30%. we are now at 35%. the original offer was 25%. that was done in september, and was really overwhelmingly voted down by workers. we have been in this strike situation ever since. we have a full five weeks of solid strike happening at the seattle hub. production ground to a halt there. and there is pressure on both sides to get a deal done. boeing obviously bleeding cash, not producing anything. workers obviously somewhat weary of a strike now, entering its sixth week. we are now in this 35% scenario. as you said, we will get the vote on wednesday. it is not assured it will make

it through, given where we are coming from, but there is hope. kriti: there -- tom: there is hope now. how did this deal come about? >> it was an encouraging nudge from the white house. the white house until now had really stayed out of it, at least as far as we could tell. over the last couple days, the labor secretary travel to seattle. she sat down with both sides. a lot of shuttle diplomacy going on. over the weekend when this deal emerged, there was a statement from the white house that referenced president joe biden saying he believes in collective bargaining agreements. he did not go all out and say get this deal done and get it over with. it is a fraught political situation. you don't -- you don't want to come to hard down on either side. but at the same time, the white house did watch this very closely and helped broker this deal, and that probably adds a layer of pressure to get it

done. it will not get any better at this point. it is pretty close to where the workers would like it to be. the number they referenced was 40%. with 35% and a couple other tweaks under the hood, it is not looking that bad. tom: and a bonus i believe if they do accept the deal. bringing all those factors together then, and you mentioned the fact some of the workers were feeling weary at this point. how do we think about the chances of success as we build up to this vote on wednesday? >> wednesday will be a very interesting day for everyone watching boeing. first, we will get the numbers, the earnings. we already have a couple numbers out, so that part will not have too much surprise. but the vote will come much later on the same day. in some ways, the new ceo will be presenting the earnings with one hand tied behind his back because the question will be, does this free me? does the end of the strike free

me to move forward? and a question, do we know whether workers will finally fall in line? very hard to say. as i said, we have been here before. the union have thrown its weight behind the initial offer, and both sides at the time set we like this deal, then workers moved the other way. now six weeks on, whether everyone is tired and wants to turn the page, that might add to it. plus, the white house pressure. if i were a betting man, i would say maybe we are looking slightly better this time now and late on wednesday there will be a deal. tom: it seems like we are getting closer to some kind of resolution. wednesday will be crucial with that vote and the earnings. keeping you and the team busy. the important developments out of boeing on that labor dispute, our global editorial leader in aviation. we have some breaking news for you coming through from the french listed drug's maker sanofi.

these are on details coming through around its transference, its controlling stake in p[e;;a tp cd&r. they are in talks to offer a controlling stake in opella. this is sanofi's consumer facing business. the offer is binding and fully financed. this is according to sanofi, in terms of the details on this. they say a closing transaction in the second quarter of 2025, and the evaluation is based on an enterprise value of around 116 billion euros. by the way, sanofi upgrading their business eps guidance for 2024. but the details around sanofi, cd and are under talks for a

stake in opella. that is a stock to watch for you this morning. another line crossing, this time from d&b bank, set to buy carnegie holding for about 12 billion swedish krona. dnb bank buys in cash. the transition subject to approval from authorities in the jurisdictions to which this is applible. it is expected to close in the first half of 2025. that is 12 billion swedish krona deal to buy carnegie holdings. that is expected to close in the first half of next year. thanks are due to report earnings. alongside some of the top names in the luxury sector. let's get more on the earnings front. we bring in our reporter who has been looking at this for us with a preview. let's start with the nordic banks and banks in the u.k.

what are the expectations? >> we've got the big three banks. across the board, the expectation is actually quite positive. they are propped up by structural hedges, which protect them against sensitivity to interest rates. that kind of boosts net interest income. fee income is also quite a boost because there is a pickup in deal making activity. but if you look across to nordic banks, the outlook is a little bit less rosy. they have the same structural hedges and operate in a more difficult macro environment, which means it will be may be a little bit more of a struggle for them this week. and we also have deutsche bank in germany. the focus is going to be on commerzbank. they said they were not going to get involved, but obviously investors want to know what they think. tom: any lines in terms of

deutsche bank's views on that potential takeover? at least the buildout. it will be pretty fascinating. speaking of struggles, and you were talking about deutsche bank, but in terms of the nordics,, struggles when it comes to the luxury space in europe and to what extent that will go through. >> it scared investors last week. that is going to help us determine the extent of the downturn in the luxury sector. the downturn was weathered better because it is so exclusive. but given that one of its biggest rivals has struggled, they might also have a bit of a let there. for kering, they warned they will have a difficult 2024. we will get a bit more color this week on the extent of that slowdown in luxury. tom: we mentioned hermes and

kering. we will see whether they have that resilience that typically they have had. thank you very much with a preview of another big earnings week for europe. this is a fascinating story as well. the reporting has been excellent from the bloomberg team. wall street is betting against the clean energy transition. bloomberg analysis of more than 500 hedge funds reveals they are net short batteries, solar, electric vehicles, and hydrogen, while going net long therm coal. let's get more on today's bloomberg big take. can you lay out for us what the reporting shows? it is pretty remarkable. and why is it so significant? >> good morning. what the story shows is that despite all the stimulus, so that is two years of the inflation reduction act in the u.s. and even longer than that with enormous regulatory and

legislative apparatuses supporting the green transition in the eu, the trends appear to be betting against key green sectors. as you mentioned, our analysis found that more hedge funds are net short stocks than they are long. the same negative view applies to electric viles, to batteries, and to hydrogen. they are more linked n now than they were in 2021. at the same time, more hedge funds are net long. oil, gas, and even coal, which is the dirtiest fossil fuel out there. overall, a negative view from key sectors in the green energy transition. tom: for some, this will be a red flashing light for those concerned with the climate crisis. a couple of hedge funds quoted in this piece, saying we are interested in this space, but we do not see that the pivot point

-- we do not see the pivot point yet. what is holding these hedge funds back, given the support we have seen from the inflation reduction act and regulatory environment here in europe? >> we are in and is positive -- inhospitable interest rate environment. at the beginning of this year, there were forecasts that with interest rates coming down, the green sector would bounce back after struggling in the post-pandemic era. a few pockets are doing better, like wind. hedge funds are positive on wind. but what we kept hearing from the hedge funds we interviewed is that it is all about geopolitics. geopolitics is getting in the way of the green recovery and it's tariff war's. increasingly entrenched with the u.s. and europe imposing tariffs on china and china retaliating. we had one hedge fund manager tell us that geopolitics is the key reason why the transition

theme is not working out. another pointed to the dominance of china across key sectors, especially solar, which makes it hard for companies in the u.s. and europe to compete and an unappealing investment target. wherever china is dominating, as he puts it, run for the hills. what you've got is the global challenge of climate change juxtaposed with the nationalism, the protectionism of tariff war's holding back investments in precisely the sectors that are needed to fight climate change. tom: the big take of the day, really fascinating read. and to what extent a new u.s. president will alter that course as well will be pretty interesting to watch. thank you very much indeed. coming up, traders are weighing threats, talking of those tariffs, talking of geopolitical risks and u.s. political uncertainty. we will do a deep dive on e.m.

and the u.s. political risk and the threads through the space. that is coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." since the fed kicked off its listening cycle, emerging market assets have traded as if sets there such remain high. our stocks headed for another bounce of underperformance? for more, we can bring in the head of e.m. strategy at citi. thank you for coming in. we had the jumbo cut from the fed. we are seeing it positive for e.m., then we have concerns that china is not doing enough on the stimulus front. at least, that will be the interpretation for some. then you have u.s. election risk and the threat of additional

tariffs, particularly from, if it is an incoming trump administration. talk to us about how e.m. has involved -- evolved and why there is not more exuberance about a fed cutting cycle? >> we wrote about this a couple months ago, thinking that we might be the second half of 2024 like a half of two different stories. the first story fueled by the fed, fed expectations. everything looked fine, the dollar trading weaker than expected, then we start seeing some cracks in the wall. i do believe that we are moving the second, which tends to be negative for e.m.. tom: you see more negativity for e.m. in the second half. >> we do believe that in the beginning of next year, a lot of

the five works of fed easing are already priced in. it will be more difficult. if we price in more, it probably means the u.s. deceleration is derailing. some parts of e.m., some parts need this narrow window of soft landing to work, which is narrow. and it so far worked. the problem is if we accelerate the pace of deceleration, it might be detrimental to assets and stocks, u.s. high yield. and it has a spill over into risks. we are still there. it feels cozy. it has been a good year in terms of returns for local em currencies. e.m. equities for the most part have been ok. but we do believe this exuberance that you mention may not be in the coming quarters.

tom: less cozy, and if you get an additional cut, as we push in the 2025, not necessarily a cause for celebration because of the weakness coming. talk about politics. how much is priced in? the markets are separate to the polls. the polls showing a tight race. what is the risk? >> that is very interesting because we ran a global investors survey a month ago, and the results were overwhelming bias toward the harris side. and we are seeing that. betting odds are moving towards the trump side. so we do believe we are 15 days ahead of elections pretty much moving the needle towards. tom: which currency is most vulnerable should trump win? >> it is a broad dollar bid.

it turns -- it tends to hurt asia more. if you've got to be careful because there's a lot already in terms of noise in the chinese yuan. implied volatility, moved 200 basis points over the last quarter. there is a lot of noise and the markets. but generally speaking, you have to look into what happens with mexico. we know that trump's economic policy philosophy will be probably twofold. it is something we saw in trump 1.0, and the new focus on immigration, which is absolutely huge now with the elections. there will be a lot of scrutiny into maximum risk. tom: is there a european read across? >> absolutely. the tariffs. when we talk about the impact in asia, that has a spillover.

german manufacturing is hurt. and we do believe if we engage in a tariff war, which has already started. it can be magnified under trump. that can be quite detrimental to european manufacturing. we know the manufacturing is worth a lot more to european growth compared to whatever happens in the u.s.. i think it will be very interesting that the downside bias in terms of euro risk, we do like to see that ahead of the election. tom: how do you play china? >> china, it is twofold because at the end of the day, we are having a stimulus. the question mark is all those big notions we are talking about. what is the timing of these notions? how are they going to hit? at what pace are they going to

hit the chinese economy? we do believe it tends to be positive for chinese stocks. we had a lot of fading over the past week or so after the exuberance, as soon as we learned the news. but there is a positive bias in terms of bringing more chinese households there. the problem is the effects. we are still counting it weaker as we go into 2025. tom: thank you very much. there is plenty more coming up. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back. happy monday. a big week on the earnings front. key out of the u.s. will be tesla. a reminder of how richly valued

this stock is, despite concerns about the slowdowns of eb sales. it towers above the rest within mag seven. you look at tesla versus the likes of microsoft and amazon. is it justified? no doubt, musk will be scrutinized, particularly in the cybercab. the targets around that model and some of the regulatory concerns as well. the price pressures given the slowdown of eb demand. that will be a key stock to watch. on the earnings front. let's flip the board and look at the trump trade. you can see this crocodile mouth spaced opening up in terms of the trump trade. the markets, at least some, are betting that trump will prove victorious come november 5 versus harris. the expectations have dipped on her outlook. the trump trade, including crptoc. some of the smaller banks,

energy as well, all part of that mix. that is why we continue to watch. 15 days until the vote in the u.s.. bloomberg terminal users can get access to these charts and others using the gtv function on the bloomberg terminal. the opening trade is up next. stay with us for more analysis on these markets. the run-up to the u.s. vote and the earnings preview as well. the opening trade is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> good morning, i am anner edwards all along with guy johnson and critical the. teachers look mixed, gold at a record high. european