>> these are the stories that set your agenda. treasury yields and futures going down. the so-called trump trade.

polls suggest a race to the wire. the candidates rallied for support in the battleground states with both emphasizing their competing platforms. a production hike. iran is reported to be developing a strong and complex counterattack on israel. >> second-quarter revenue coming in below estimates. that was the number for the second quarter. the estimate had been more.

and ryanair is cutting its passenger goal to 210 million on those delays from boeing. we know members will be voting on the latest offer. we know there's been significant delays in terms of deliveries as a result. and ryanair is a key customer independent on those deliveries and they project out. third quarter deliveries expected to slip in the fourth quarter on those boeing strikes. and we will be speaking to the cfo and asking him about that projection in terms of softer passenger numbers and the impacts of boeing on the airline. it is all about the dollar now.

you have a softer dollar and bond futures are lower as well on expectations that this is a closer race with some polls suggesting kamala harris has an edge like iowa. but broadly it looks like an incredibly tight race and european futures are pointing to modest gains in the ftse 100 currently off by .1%. in s&p futures ending lower. nasdaq futures looking to gain around .4%. we have some positive earnings from intel and amazon to play into the markets let's lacrosse asset. the softness there is impacting to the upside and they are gaining on the back of this

unwind. euro-dollar at point -- at 109. reports that opec-plus and the decision to push back some cuts and the threatening rhetoric coming out of the leadership in iran. and gold currently up .1%. avril hong is standing by for a check on the asian markets. >> asian currency is mostly higher amid the unwinding of the so-called trump trade. and against that backdrop we are seeing chinese equities managing to clock some gains. the real underperformer are those in india. this that you are seeing on indian equities is partly to do with earnings disappointment but also the rotation towards chinese stocks. most of them are gaining ground

against the greenback. the dollar softer amid the unwinding of the so-called trump trade and the yen is outperforming here and this is not just the dollar story. the boj shift in tone as well. because it is a trading holiday any move you are seeing in fx might be exaggerated. let's take a closer look at this chart that shows you the hong saying volatility in this line in blue shows you how it's surged of late and you think back to 2022 and two periods where we saw similar climes, which gives you a reminder of what is at stake from the chinese and pc this week. even if we do see a magic number of fiscal stimulus being announced it will take a while for there to be dishing of those details which might make gains

in the chinese stock difficult to sustain so keep that in mind. >> avril hong, thank you. hotly awaited details. we will unpack that story for you across this hour. let's get to the polls and the trump trade that the polls give no clear indication of who will win the u.s. election tomorrow. let's bring in this guide. >> repositioning in the asian session. we see a boost to u.s. treasury futures unwinding a lot of the weakness we saw on the payroll report and the dollar index is in the ring. we are seeing underperformance when it comes to u.s. small caps and lastly bitcoin is also in the red, a bit of unwinding and recent positivity.

i went to talk more about the futures or the effects -- the fx market. if you look at the currencies exposed to these tariffs, it has strengthened 1% versus the dollar in the asia trade and the chinese yuan another tariff exposed fx pair we are watching also strengthening versus the dollar so there has been an unwind in the asia session. let's see how the betting markets have been faring because over the weekend they did flip in favor for trump -- for harris and it overshadowed the kind of moves we could see in the asia session. the betting markets flipped on friday but harris climbed further as the weekend rolled on. >> thank you very much indeed on the market reaction. we close down to that deadline

and the vote on tuesday. we will stay on this topic because kamala harris and donald trump remained deadlocked in opinion polls ahead of election day. new surveys have them and neck nationally and across those battleground states that will decide the outcome of the u.s. election. let's get more with kriti gupta. what for you had been the key takeaways of the most recent polls that we have had? >> it has been the result of nbc but what is shaking these markets is one pole in particular out of iowa and the reason this is so significant is because even though it's not necessarily a swing state, it will not be this time according to the most recently counted populations. this is a poll that's been right 45 times in history so it's seen as a strong gauge and during the trump win at accurately

predicted his win and his demise as well. it is suggesting a harris lead in iowa. again showing that the other polls are not wrong when it comes to those harris leads but this morning it is taking the headlines. >> both candidates throwing everything at it as they get to that final stage of this lengthy election process in the u.s.. what are the candidates doing and what are you watching for the next 24 hours? >> digging into the strategies they have been pursuing so far, a lot of this from the harris perspective has been vote for me not only because of my policies but because i'm not donald trump. some have said he is not the right fit. trampolining into the idea that harris actually has not done a lot during her time as vice

president for some of those key issues like the economy and like the border and i think in the last 24 hours her comments in track record on immigration has been front and center. the top voting topics or issues for this election are the economy, immigration, then things like abortion and gun control, all of which are being talked about on the campaign trail. >> thank you very much for the latest on how the polls are shaping up and how the candidates are doing. we will be speaking to someone about the impact of the election on the crypto trade. they invest heavily in the infrastructure around crypto and bitcoin. we will get that perspective as bitcoin softens about .3% in the session. trump expected to favor that sector should he win that election. here's what else to be thinking about. tuesday it is the u.s. presidential election.

we will have full coverage of that for you with all the market impact throughout tuesday and wednesday continuing into the week. we get novo nordisk earnings crossing and it touches on the demand for those weight loss drugs, which will be central to the earnings story. on thursday the decisions coming from the federal reserve. the bank of england in focus, interesting on the back of that budget rachel reeves and the u.k.. you can get a roundup of the stories he need to know in today's edition of daybreak. terminal subscribers can go to d.a. why bigo on the terminal. lawmakers gather in the shadow of that election to signoff off on a fiscal package that could run into the trillions of yuan. we are live in hong kong for what to expect on that and how china is positioning for either harris or another president trump. stay with us. this is bloomberg.

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david: welcome back. let's return to the u.s. election and the ramifications for china because the next person to enter the white house could impact any further stimulus in the world's

second-biggest economy as the country's top legislative body meets in beijing to discuss those measures. let's bring in minmin low. give us a sense of how the u.s. election is being viewed in china and to what extent policymakers and lawmakers in the hallowed halls of beijing are thinking about and putting in place measures to ensure that that economy can still be sustained and what impact they expect to feel from this u.s. election. >> i think the fact that the meeting is being delayed by a few weeks from the usual early october to early november suggests the policymakers are watching the election closely. in the outcome would likely factor into considerations in terms of the final stimulus they will plan to announce and at this moment based on what we have been speaking about, any

sort of trump tariff risk is likely already priced into equity markets and it will be those stimulus that will impact the chinese economy more and our economics team have done a bit of numbercrunching to look at what a trump versus paris win could do for the economy and a harris win could likely mean more policy continuity and if we do see that continuation of this limited decoupling our economics team believes a good way on china's growth next year and a more serious decoupling could weigh on growth by about 1% and if trump wins that could raise the likelihood of tariffs and could weigh on growth by about 0.4% next year but if we do see this global retaliation, that could mitigate the impact on trade as china looks to other more neutral countries to diversify their trade and doubled down on their self-sufficiency push when it

comes to technology. >> so either way it seems you get a growth hit to the downside for china with whoever is in the white house. what are investors looking for and what are analysts focused on when it comes to this national people's congress, this decision-making set of meetings this week. where is the focus and the expectation? >> market consensus now as we could see this additional stimulus this year but market expectations are ranging between six to 10 trillion and a perhaps three to five year time frame and they would be bond yields to the property sector and government debt, locally. who is funding this? if it will be local governments issuing new bonds to refinance their own shadow that essentially is not really a form of fiscal expansion or the same as injecting new money into the

economy but if it is the central government rather than local governments issuing these bonds that would be welcomed by markets because they would signal they are taking more debt burden away but the wildcard is the consumption measures, whether there will be detailed measures to lift consumption directly in the form of subsidies or cash handouts, something beyond what we have seen so far. >> minmin low in hong kong on what to watch for from that national people's congress taking place in beijing. sticking with relations between the u.s. and china, both has been there in terms of how things have unfolded. both republicans and democrats are signaling a tough stance toward beijing. stephen engle looks at who the u.s. election is being viewed in china's corridors of power.

>> well beijing likely is not enamored with either donald trump or kamala harris, chinese leaders are not showing their hand. it would be oversimplified to assume china would prefer continuity over unpredictability. like the entire u.s. china relationship, it is far more complex than that. >> i think they would prefer trump as president than the democratic candidate. the track record shows donald trump is not as anti-china as he is perceived. >> trump has made it clear he would continue to take a hard-line approach on trade with china, threatening sizable tariff increases on all imports. >> outside of love and religion, it is the most beautiful word there is. tariff. >> he has this crazy notion that putting a tariff of 60% on every product imported from china is a

good idea. this man has so little understanding of tariffs he thinks that china pays for them. >> inflation no doubt is on the mind of u.s. borders and terrorists -- and harris has blasted the plan as a sales tax. the current biden administration has maintained trump era tariffs on $350 billion worth of chinese goods and added billions more on other chinese products, including electric vehicles. perhaps by design not to antagonize american workers in manufacturing swing states, harris has been less specific on what are trade priorities would be, repeating that america must protect and build its competitive edge over china in critical sectors like advanced computing in semiconductors. >> the third pillar of our opportunity economy is leading the world in the industries of the future.

and making sure america, not china, wins the competition for the 21st century. >> that was prevailing when this administration took office that the u.s. was on the was being surpassed as an economic power and u.s. influence was waning and chinese influence was on the rise. >> that is where geopolitical differences between china and the u.s. also hang in the balance. no one knows for sure how either candidate will deal with contentious issues like taiwan, the south china sea, ukraine in the middle east. not to mention trade policies based on national security concerns. >> if kamala harris comes in, it will be status quo and we will have a continuation of the current policy driven by the national security lobby. this is the policy that hurts

china the most. >> china is not saying. >> we have repeatedly stated that we do not comment on the u.s. elections and oppose any u.s. individuals making an issue of china during elections. >> at some point we know china will inevitably take a stand regardless of who is in the white house. stephen engle, bloomberg news. >> berkshire hathaway's cash pile reaches a new record as warren buffett continues to refrain from major acquisitions while trimming his ample stake. we get the latest on the world's most famous investor. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> welcome to bloomberg daybreak: europe.

berkshire hathaway's cash pile reached a record $325 billion in the third quarter. the conglomerate also cut its stake in apple once again, this time by about a quarter. let's bring in charlie wells with the details. 325 billion dollars of cash, no acquisitions. he's not saying anything that wets his appetite. >> talk about the definition of a good problem. buffett likes to buy low and sell high. in the s&p 500 is up about 20% this year. berkshire hathaway, their share price is up 20% and one of the moves he tends to make when you cannot find good deals is to buy his own stock. but even that stock is looking too expensive for him. he is a patient investor and he

has said he's happy to sit on the sidelines until he can find investments that are low risk and make him a lot of money. >> what do we read into the cut to the apple stake maybe he has seen something in apple that has concerned him -- is that how we should be thinking about it? >> appleshare sales is probably the flashiest thing to come out of this report and you could read into this one of two ways. one is he has some questions about apple and they have had some softness in china and buffett himself has never been a huge tech guy. he invested in apple. there was a time when he invested in ibm but on the flipside of this warren buffett himself talked about how great of an investment apple has been and it truly has aired out in their portfolio. this is probably more of just limiting some of that exposure that they have.

this is one of their top holdings. >> so tax and a trim rather than a big warning sign on apple's prospects may be. how do the rest of buffett's conglomerate fair? >> you could call it the last great american conglomerate and we have to talk about hurricanes here because insurance is part of this american conglomerate and hurricane helene took a big hit on some of their insurance underwriting and when you look at that segment of the business, earnings from insurance underwriting were down 70%. the company was also saying in the fourth quarter projection hurricane milton could hurt them there so that's one of the more negative readings could come out of the report. a positive upside is energy. >> did we get any signals about the future of this business under buffett as we look into 2025? quite see is 94.

he has already tapped the next ceo. one of the issues whenever he takes over will be the cash pile. that will be an inheritance of a good problem. what does he do? that's what he will be focusing on. >> 94 and still performing at the highest levels. charlie wells, thank you for the latest in terms of berkshire hathaway, thinking about the cash pile. bitcoin rally and the falter in it linked to what we are seeing

tom: good morning. these are the stories that set your agenda. treasury futures rise as traders pair back the so-called trump trade. the latest polls suggest a race to the wire between kamala harris and donald trump. the candidates rally. both emphasizing their competing economic platforms. oil rises after opec-plus members agreed to delay a production hike and iran is purported to be preparing a strong and complex counter on israel. certainly the run-up to the vote out of the u.s. on tuesday and expectations that this is going to be a very close race indeed as the polls have consistently suggested but there's details out in terms of the polling numbers that has pointed to an

on wide at least around the edges of the trump trade and as a result you are seeing a softer dollar to the benefit of emerging market currencies. the ftse 100 and the u.k. pointing lower by seven points. nasdaq futures also pointing to the upside. s&p futures looking to add 17 points. let's look cross asset with the focus on the u.s. dollar, softer and the session by .6%. euro-dollar getting a bid, up .6%, largely down to a softer dollar. brent getting a lift, so there is the geopolitics and the rhetoric pardoning but also the decision for opec-plus to push back cuts to supply lifting oil in the session today up 1.8% and gold trading at 1200 737 per troy nance on the yellow metal.

from gold to bitcoin because the push towards a record high is faltering as investors dial back some bets on a win for donald trump, widely seen as pro crypto. i am joined by the managing partner at still mark with a deep knowledge of the crypto space and a long-term investor and a long-term investor in some of these assets. talk to us about the movements we are seeing in bitcoin today, the linkages between the modest softness we have seen and what's transpired in the u.s. election. our markets right to be paring some of their bets on bitcoin? >> bitcoin is up 60% year-to-date. it has doubled in price over the past 12 months and we are only a couple thousand dollars off the all-time highs so bitcoins performance for the year has done quite well.

people may be hesitant around the results of the upcoming election but we are optimistic regardless of the outcome that this will be a positive result for bitcoin as both candidates have advanced positive crypto policy agendas. >> so whoever is in the white house, good news for crypto. talk to us about some of the differences in terms of the potential policy a e white house? do you have clarity on where the difference lies? >> both candidates have advanced pro crypto agendas and while the agendas have been relatively broad, what is important is how they are enacted, which, once we have the elections, a successful candidate in office. what we have heard from harris is she is looking to advance policy that will allow

protection for investors and holders of bitcoin and while she has not provided a detail of the policies she would enact we can assume this will include actions around protecting self custody or encouraging custodians to enable self custody off ramps that are easy and frictionless for users and we would also hope this would include encouragement around the adoption of proof of reserve for crypto banks and exchanges. trump has said he would be looking to step back from the crackdown perceived to have happened in d.c. and has explicitly stated he would protect the ability to mine and maintain self custody of crypto assets and bitcoin as well as to transact without government surveillance, but what i said before is that it's the inaction of policy rather than the statement of the agenda that

will be important to the industry. tom: what do you think that means for both sides, for the future of gary gensler and the sec, who seem to have taken a slightly more robust or combative approach to this ecosystem? does that mean the wings have been clipped or will be clipped for the sec? >> we should say the industry is hopeful that either administration would reconsider those in charge of the sec and we would be looking to find someone that would provide a clear and transparent policy framework that allows entrepreneurs to operate with respect of the law and know they are doing so and for that policy in those regulations to be applied uniformly across the industry. and we are also hoping the new administration will work in partnership with the industry

and what i mean by that is that as policies are developed that the leaders of the industry are broadened and the -- what the industry can properly happen regarded and it allows for the value for the invention of bitcoin to be preserved and for end-users to continue to access the value. >> where is the catch up? there are parts of the story where there's an advantage and a gap that needs to be close the you can identify? >> that's right. in addition to looking for clear policy framework and for industry partnership we are also

hopeful that the new administration will look against other nations that have taken a progressive approach to regulating the crypto and points fears and right now america is in a position of leadership and innovation. builders of bitcoin's payment protocol are all -- the category leaders in the field are based in the u.s. so from protocol development to the development of note infrastructure akin to the aws of the internet, those companies building that sort of internet are based in the u.s., as is the problem and to maintain that edge we will have to have a progressive regulation respectful of the utility they

can provide crafted from a studied approach of what the technology offers done in entrepreneurship and the value that bitcoin can bring to end-users >>'s generative aia tailwind or a headwind for crypto given both the funding demands in the energy demands of both sectors? flex we also suspect that it's one of the reasons why candidates have felt the need to advance crypto agendas within their campaign and so i say this because it's unusual and of course this is the first election in which candidates have both advanced bitcoin agendas. this reflects the sort of demand of the constituents and voting population for the importance of

bitcoin to the population and that includes the importance of bitcoin to other nationally rally in and important issues like generative ai and the shift to renewable energy, which of course is also relevant. it's important to note in terms of bitcoin that it is set for artificial intelligence and the capabilities we have seen be introduced in the past 18 months and for that to really flourish and to gain global adoption that will need to be matched with a payments infrastructure that can handle micro payments at scale and this is what exactly the payment network of lightning is designed to do and bitcoin's payment network is the only network and all of crypto that can scale to the transaction capacity that can meet the demands of generative ai. >> thank you very much indeed on

what to expect from either candidate when it comes to this u.s. election and the impact on crypto and some of the other catalysts. now some breaking across the terminal. schneider electric appointing olivia bloom as the ceo effective immediately according to an emailed statement. they are removing peter her back as the ceo due to divergences in the execution of the company roadmap at a time of significant opportunities. olivia bloom has been at the business since 2001 and is currently the executive vice president for energy management. in oil advanced after opec-plus agreed to push back its december production increase and tensions escalated in the middle east. let's get more from andrew james.

. talk us through the reaction of what's been missing behind opec was >> this is the second time opec-plus has pushed back and delayed the plan dates when they said they would restore about 2.2 million barrels of oil have been signed and it was originally supposed to start happen and now it's been pushed back by another month. they were going to start with 180,000 barrels a day. the backdrop is the falling oil prices. we are down almost 20% now from our high point in early april and we have got a faltering demand situation in china and perhaps more significantly we have big increases in production

elsewhere, particularly in the u.s.. the u.s. is pumping 50% more oil than saudi arabia but also from places like canada, brazil and guiana so opec-plus i think have come to the realization that it was just a bad time to be restoring production. >> that's a remarkable statistic , the u.s. is pumping 50% more oil than saudi arabia. talk to us about what you and the team are watching for. >> that is the other factor pushing up oil today. we had that speech over the weekend from a ron's supreme leader, really interesting shift in tone.

he was quite measured after the israeli strike just over a week ago but in this new speech he was promising a pretty robust response and we had a wall street journal report suggesting they would use more powerful warheads in this attack so that's also been pushing oil out today and ironically one of the few things that could sort of meaningfully push oil up at the moment would be a significant escalation in the middle east starting to affect oil infrastructure or transport. we have a few other things happening. the u.s. election, a fed decision, a policy meeting in china this week. so there's a lot of moving parts here. >> just a few factors.

andrew james on what is moving these oil markets with brent up 1.9%. some of the stories making news, the office of israel's prime minister is being accused of leaking classified documents to foil a cease-fire in gaza. four people including a netanyahu spokesperson have been arrested and accused of removing sensitive idf intelligence. the latest example of netanyahu manipulating public discourse around the conflict. he rejected the probe as a deep state witch hunt to discredit him. >> rachel reeves has said she was wrong to tell british voters before the election that her labour party would not announce new tax increases. she unveiled a package of revenue raises including changes to payroll levies and inheritance tax.

and king philippe a has been pelted with mud and insults in valencia. pedro sanchez was rushed away by security but the king stayed to speak to a group of protesters. anger is growing over the government's handling of the flash floods, which have killed at least 211 people. spain's government is deploying military and security personnel to the region. moldova's president declared victory, bolstering her bid to steer the country into the european union, she won 54% of the vote. she has accused moscow of meddling in the country's democratic process. as ryanair cuts growth, the cfo will join us to discuss the airline's latest earnings. that is next. this is bloomberg.

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tom: ryanair has cut its passenger boat target next year due to delivery delays from boeing. they expect 210 million passengers, down from 215 million. we can bring in the cfo of ryanair. they for coming. how confident are you you can get to 210 million? we are hopeful. there's something taking class in seattle tonight. hopefully they accept the latest deal. we would like to see our aircraft coming in. this is our best guess on what we might -- on what might

happen. we have received two and i don't think we will see anymore aircraft this side of january or february. we look like we could be left short 10 aircraft or more into 2025. we are planning 210 million passengers instead of 215. we had a situation where we were over crude and overscheduled. even if we get more aircraft we will use that. i'm hopeful that we will see those aircraft coming in and we are now planning on the lower growth. >> you are planning on 10 fewer aircraft than you were expecting . what does that mean for affairs? >> the declines are moderating. still modestly down.

we are more cautious on q3 but it's in a better place than it was. we have the impact and the consumers have been dealing with higher interest rates for longer and are starting to unwind. capacity is constrained. we talked about boeing with problems having getting aircraft out the door and we are seeing consolidation playing out so i think capacity will be constrained for some time which would indicate that potentially more risks to the upside and the downside on pricing but it is still too early. >> what is the outlook for the winter season? >> we are guiding for the full year. we have said we are looking wrong with declines moderating.

we have got less than 10% of our bookings in the bag so it's too early to call where it might go for then. >> will you be cutting flights next year? >> we are below where we were so we have plenty of time. it all depends on when we get the aircraft. >> where would you look to cut? >> if you look at the likes of the u.k. with a situation where the swedish are cutting their apd and we have the hungarians cutting back and the italians cutting back on municipal taxes and at the same time we are seeing increases so that cannot be good for the u.k.. we have pulled capacity out of germany. if you have got less capacity we have more airports than we have capacity to fill that. >> you are talking about the

budget. >> correct. >> it was a negative stat. >> you are considering cutting some routes or some flights in the u.k. as a result of that? >> there's a high chance we will. >> other regions will suffer more than london. you will see it in parts of scotland or middle u.k.. i think it was a backward step for a government that said we are trying to stimulate growth and tourism to do that in the budget last week. that's just one of a number of regions which are not stimulating growth. we have lots of countries stimulating growth and we are happy to grow there. >> what is happening with the certification of them asked him? >> it has not changed. at this stage, i think the seven

will be certified in the first half of 2025. that would leave them to be certified in the back half and we will receive our first in 2027, so no changes. >> are you confident that happens? >> you can never be fully confident but there's been more time for the and boeing to concentrate on the certification process. >> always appreciate your time. cfo of ryanair on the back of those earnings. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back. it is edge of the seats test when it comes to the u.s. election. on who is expected to be in the white house.

just about edging a very modestly. the iowa poll well respected but it is just one and it showed the surprise lead in iowa for kamala harris. just a single pole when others suggest a dead heat ahead of that vote on tuesday. they come through with her decision thursday. expectations you get a quarter-point cut the looking and the 2025 we are not expected to be to 4% until about june as markets readjust. the opening trade is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

it's our son, he is always up in our business. it's the verizon 5g home internet i got us. oh... he used to be a competitive gamer but with the higher lag, he can't keep up with his squad. so now we're his “squad”. what are kevin's plans for the fall? he's going to college. out of state, yeah. -yeah in the fall. change of plans, i've decided to stay local. oh excellent! oh that's great! why would i ever leave this? -aw! we will do anything to get him gaming again. you and kevin need to fix this internet situation. heard my name! i swear to god, kevin! -we told you to wait in the car. everyone in my old squad has xfinity. less lag, better gaming! i'm gonna need to charge you for three people.

anna: the presidential election with both indicating a tight fit

is between donald trump