that said, i'm hesitant to draw from the early vote numbers, as astonishing as they are, because at this point until tomorrow, we really don't know. does that mean that there's more people who are going to be getting out, or does that mean people are just getting out early? i don't think we know. one thing i would say about trump, and we need to be cautious about this, is the registration for republicans is up in many states including some of the swing states from 2020. pennsylvania, arizona, nevada. so for all the negative signs in the last 24 to 48 hours for donald trump on the ground and elsewhere, those registration numbers matter and get back to this early vote. so i think we have to be really cautious about drawing conclusions just based on that early vote. joe: down ballot this poll finds some interesting effects, but all the democratic candidates for center are outperforming kamala harris right now. when you're going into an

election with that kind of reverse coattail situation, who does that help? >> it rarely helps the top of the ticket. it is more likely that if the top of the ticket is running strong a can help, the coattails can help down ticket candidates. you rarely see the top of the ticket, the presidential candidate getting the same level of support as legislative candidates or vice versa. it's always going to be different. people have different priorities whether it is the congressman and what they are trying to get done in their community. the problem kamala harris has is she is carrying the burden of an extremely unpopular administration, and that suppresses the voters that she's going to get. in order for her to win, she would be doing much better if she was just getting the base democratic vote, which she won't get, but it doesn't mean she can't be the elected president by tomorrow. kailey: joe: we have just a minute left but when you consider this split ticket idea, is it more likely that all the states are going to go one way,

whatever party gets the presidency, or that there will be some expectation-define results? >> historically we say that a house in the white house move together. i would normally say they will go together and that the republicans will take the senate because the map looks so much better for them, but every time i turn around, this election has defied all odds. i'm hesitant to say but i think at this point republicans really look strong as it pertains to the senate, and that means divided government and that means guess what, really hard to get critical things done in this country and we are back to square one where people are frustrated again. kailey: thank you so much. we will have more from our signature panel in the next hour of balance of power and of course throughout the week. divided government is an idea that the markets might like we know they are watching this election in anticipation. let's bring in bloomberg markets correspondent abigail doolittle. what are we seeing?

>> we're seeing the markets reflecting the tension around this very close election. the s&p 500 and the nasdaq have been slightly higher. not so long ago down more than half of 1%. this really reflects the uncertainty, investors being nervous around the election, what will it mean for the economy? there's also the fed decision ahead. the reason stocks were down not so long ago had to do with some weakness in technology such as amazon, apple, microsoft some of this could have to do with the mixed earnings that we seen out of big tech, but this could also be a not in the direction of the former president who of course have the expectation that if you were elected that may be bad for these companies. but the bottom line right now is the predicted odds, they are basically spread by 1%. super close election with harris and 54%, donald trump at 53%.

joe: that's saying a lot here. as we look at stock prices, but also commodities to what extent are oil prices keen office election? >> well right now i'm just a little bit. to the degree that that reflects the election, it would suggest that the economy is doing ok. it may also suggest that markets don't think that donald trump will be reelected or the idea of those tariffs. however, what i would point to have some other asset classes, bombs rallying which means yield are down. the peso higher against the dollar, bitcoin is lower. all of this is a bit of a reversal of the trump trade. now we are seeing some pressure. the number one message has to do with what we've been watching for months. very elevated telling you that investors are ready for anything that they think that the reaction out of this election

could potentially be a volatile one. >> they queue for being with us. as always looking at the markets of the talk politics. markets correspondent abigail doolittle. we will talk more in the second hour about the way investors are trying to seize on the looming volatility to make money no matter what happens and coming up, we will spend some time with jake talking cost. the democrat will be with us on the eve of this elected to talk about his support for the harris campaign and what might be next. i'm joe mathieu at bloomberg world headquarters in new york. special coverage of the election on the eve of bloomberg tv and radio.

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♪ kailey: this is "bloomberg balance of power" on tv and radio. on election eve.

tomorrow is the day after a year and a half of run out following the campaign trail. not just of the presidential level where this race remains as we told you frequently between donald trump and kamala harris, but also the congress of for grams. 34 senate seats in 435 house seats will be decided in tomorrow's vote. >> not all of them worth watching. in fact it gets to be pretty narrow you look at the races that are actually contested that we are going to spend time on in the throes of our special coverage tomorrow night. part of the mission here is to bring you news as it breaks, to arm you with the best information that you can have to make a decision in this election. it's also to help you watch this tomorrow night and know what to be looking at. megan scully joins us from washington to help us on that front, taking a look at them of the down ballot key house and senate races to watch tomorrow. great to have you with us today on bloomberg. happy election eve. we can get our arms around this

if it easier and we will likely know a bit sooner within the house. democrats had a varied map and the conventional wisdom as we will see historic flipping two opposite parties in both houses. is that how you see it? >> that is what it seems to be, other particularly after the call in iowa, that can't name us by surprise, filling harris ahead, i'm not willing to say anything definitively at this point. but yes, it does seem the map has always been, the senate matt has always been in republicans favor. democrats are defending a lot of seats in state spectrum has won, particularly in montana where he supposed to win double digits. you have jon tester trying to hold on. kailey: and the tester seat as well as the west virginia seat is very likely to flip republican because joe manchin is retiring. the only two pickups republicans would need to take control and become the majority, but how

much does the size of the majority ultimately matter? not just in the senate, but the house as well? >> in the senate you need 60 votes to do most legislation. in a unified government, democrats or either party could get things through under what is called reconciliation process. we saw that with the biden climate law during his first two years in office. but without that 60 vote majority, things get a little tricky, and we haven't seen that since the obama administration. so the size of the majority, parties always want more, but short of 60, it is complicated to get things done. in the house it looks like whoever rings that majority will be a narrow one as well. it's only going to take four seats, for nationwide seats for democrats to take the majority

in the house, and it's looking pretty favorable for them at this moment. joe: it's talk about the house a bit more specifically. this is a beast to cover, you and your team are going to be knee-deep in all of this tomorrow night. not all of the seats are up for grabs or contested at least. when we look at the way this will play out tomorrow, we might well have to wait for it, i'm assuming that you would agree california to come to fruition before we know which party controlled the house. the big state of new york and california will have more to do with this than the swing states that we are watching for president. >> absolutely. so it's interesting when you look at the house, you are really looking at a 10th of the races that are competitive. if you are looking east to west coast, we will know early in the evening, we will get some kind of sense as to which direction this is going or if it remains a tossup with the poles coming out

of new york. there are also competitive races in north carolina and in virginia. so that will give us early indication. what i'm going to be watching really closely tomorrow night though is the heartland. there are two house races in iowa that looked very good for democrats, and then there is that blue dot district in omaha that democrats are also seeking to flip. that could signal kind of which way this is going. of course we won't know anything for sure most likely until much later in the evening or perhaps days later. it did take a few days in 20 to call the house. but i think that there might be a moment there sort of late in the evening after those polls have closed in iowa and nebraska. >> and then there's california to consider which is why we have to warn the audience about how long it could take before

ultimately the total tally of the house comes together. can you tell us quickly why california takes so long aside from its geographic location, polls closing later in the evening? >> the polls close later, there are five seats there. they tend to count slowly. we are expecting turn out to be very high. they don't count the early vote before election night, so all of this is going to just drag this out even longer, and i hate to tell you guys but we might not even know until alaska comes in because there is a very competitive race that is there. so we will see which way that one goes. it's going to be a long night and it could potentially extend into wednesday or thursday before we even know the house. as joe said at the beginning, the most likely thing we will know tuesday night, and this is

far from a guarantee, but is control of the senate. kailey: buck a lot for the long haul. thank you so much joining us from bloomberg washington, d.c. studios. and joining us now from massachusetts as a member of the house of representatives, jake often cloths is with us. welcome back to bloomberg tv and radio. happy election eve. it does feel like almost no one is willing to say anything with conviction at this point, but how are you feeling about becoming a member of the majority? >> confident. i think democrats are going to take back the house. i don't think it's going to be a blowout, neither party would claim that at this point because of how polarized the country is right now, but i do think republicans in the 118 congress had multiple rounds of infighting over their speaker choice in which they brought the country to the verge of a debt default in which they had to be really bullied into funding our allies i think is going to speak

to the swing voter in those two dozen seats that are going to decide the majority and it's going to give hakeem jeffries the gavel. joe: what do you make of the conventional wisdom in washington that the house turns democratic and the senate turns republican as we talk to the investment community here every on bloomberg. there's the old wall street saying, gridlock is good. there does seem to be a preference to have a split congress regardless of who wins the white house. how would you respond to those people? >> i think those individuals are under-indexing to how deranged a second term of donald trump with the too many individuals are assuming that the same anti-bodies would be there in the first term, but those antibodies have been depleted. the republican party is full on maga and unfortunately we've seen the supreme court, the state parties all suffocate

themselves to his whims. those individuals in the white house in term one, people like jim mattis and john kelly, even someone like john bolton, they are not going to be invited back for a term two. it is going to be trump and his sons making decisions that are in the interest of their own businesses and of their own family fiefdom, not in the interest of the rule of law or the american people, and i think too few on wall street our understanding how bad for their business the degradation of the rule of law would be. kailey: has holly harris make enough argument that she wouldn't be bad for business, that she might actually be good for it? the prevailing thinking on wall street is trump means lower taxes and higher profits. >> first of all, that's not true because donald trump wants to put in place tariff that would cost the average american emily at least $4000 a year, and radically increase the cost of input for most american businesses.

tariff is an anti-growth economic agenda in the way that he is describing it. kamala harris and the democratic party want to be driving toward an economy that works like legos, not monopoly. we want the economy to build things. i'd like to put forward 10 million units of housing, 1000 nuclear power plants, building more ships than the entire chinese navy, starting more small businesses for the rest of the world combined we want to be an economy that builds things and done things, not an economy of middlemen. i think wall street and main street can get behind that. donald trump is there to cross off names on his enemies list. >> more than 77 million americans have already voted. how do you read into that number, what does it mean for tomorrow night? >> i don't read into that number at all. i think any prognostication based on early voting is very subject to confirmation bias. the only takeaway i have from that is that thankfully most

americans have ignored donald trump's lies about early voting from 2020 and have recognized that our election system when it is not being interfered with by maga elections in's is robust, free and fair. >> i'd like to ask you as well about what we've heard from the current speaker of the house within the last week. two suggestions about repealing legislations. at first the affordable care act, obamacare, and then just days ago a suggestion that the tips act passed region would be repealed. he then clarified that he didn't understand the question he was asked and instead what he wants to do is streamline the legislation. i wonder if you buy that or if you think that might be on the agenda. >> digging into specific policy details is missing the forest for the trees. the core agenda of the house republican party is not actually any specific policy outcome in health care, semiconductor manufacturing, education. it's nihilistic.

speaker johnson is subject to the whims of about a dozen members of his conference who simply don't want to govern at all. he's got a conference of the joker from the dark night. they just want to watch the world burn. too many on wall street are thinking oh, that means gridlock, that means there will be any threat of the short-term business interests. it's just a very myopic way of looking at washington. but they should be seeking our guardrails to protect the rule of law and a positive governing philosophy that actually wants to build out the productive capability of their economy rather than bringing us to the edge of a debt default every single cycle. joe: kailey mentioned taxes and no matter who wins we are going to have a great debate to do with the expiration of the trump era tax cuts, the 2017 tax cuts. if it is donald trump, what would a democratic house do on that front, would it get out of

the ways and means committee? how do you see that playing out because a decision will need to be made next. >> i'm not going to speak for the ways and means committee. i will say that the first order of business, should the worst happen and it donald trump be elected is going to need to protect the constitution because he will not, speaker johnson will not, republicans in general will not. before we even talk about taxes we are going to be talking about the institutions of democracy and how we safeguard than but are generally leak scenes and indications of where there is bipartisan consensus on taxes. one is the child tax credit. that romney has put forward ideas, democrats are galvanized kind making fully refundable and expanded child tax credit of the money directly in the pockets of working amylase. number two is fixing the r&d tax credit issue from the trump bill in 2017 and allowing businesses to amortize those over five years. i think both parties can get behind it especially if paired

with a child tax credit. joe: congressman, thank you for the time. joining us from a state of massachusetts, good to see you and welcome back to bloomberg tv and radio. a little over 24 hours from now, polling will be closing. we are going to be looking at results here. the preamble that has been a year and a half long is about to end. kailey: which is wild to consider. in some way for selection feels it has lasted way longer than a year-and-a-half, given everything that has changed over the course of the cycle, including the candidate at the top of the democratic ticket. what was joe biden just months ago now, heresy was with donald trump in many. and it's interesting as we consider how close the polling has been, that has not been the case when you look at betting market and how market cap and pricing the selection they are starting to come together in bit more today and maybe there is some rethinking of the odds of a donald trump victory on the eve of the selection. joe: of course we spent about a

year with our own pole in consultation with morning console. this is october to october exercise. we are going to talk about the ground that we have covered, the longest campaign of our lives followed by the shortest in the case of kamala harris. eli oakley of morning console will be with us. we will also sit down with mick mulvaney, former acting white house chief of staff in the trump administration who should have some interesting bots today. kailey: i'm sure he will. we will also check in with our bloomberg team that has scattered about the swing states including what is going on on the ground in georgia as well as texas where we are watching windows critical senate races. and where abortion could be a featured issue as we've been discussing with our guest for this first hour of balance of power. we have another hour to go on the other side of the break and of course, many hours to go as we work through election we work through election week here, so stick with us. i'm kailey leinz alongside joe mathieu live from new york on bloomberg tv and radio.

>> from the>> world of politics to the world of business, this is "balance of power."

live from new york. kailey: from the bloomberg world headquarters in new york city to our tv and radio audiences worldwide, welcome to "balance of power." it is election eve. it all comes down to tomorrow, november 5, when millions of americans who have not already cast their ballots will do so to decide not only the presidency, but the balance in the house and senate. it is the last day on the campaign trail for all of those candidates. donald trump and kamala harris will be at work. joe: michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin, the states you would expect. this is the real closing argument here. we will be talking about results around this time tomorrow, or a little bit later in our special coverage, knowing that some 77 million people have already voted. there are a lot of questi