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history. kamala harris and donald trump making pitches to swing voters in pennsylvania and michigan. the dollar studies with voters bracing for volatility. asia stocks climb after services activity grows more than expected. boeing workers vote to accept a new wage deal and end a crippling strike, clearing the way for the playmaker to restore operations. good morning. happy tuesday, november 5 . markets in a holding pattern with the election uncertainty. many investors will stay on the sidelines until they get clarity on the outcome of the election

and that may not come through for days, possibly even weeks. the final pitch is being made to voters by both candidates. european futures flat. the activity in the equities market is firmly focused on china, gains coming through for chinese markets and we will unpack that for you. ftse 100 futures lower by .2%, s&p futures states -- stateside flat, nasdaq futures looking at modest gains of about .1% after dropping .3% yesterday. there has been a story around a potential selloff in, particularly towards the long end if there's a trump presidency on the expectation of greater fiscal stimulus and potential tariffs. euro-dollar, the focus on the dollar, could be the most sensitive asset on the back of the election results. bitcoin part of the trump trade

mix, currently at 68,000, below the $70,000 level it crossed last week. brent $75 a barrel, flat on oil after modest gains that came through. we have saudi aramco's earnings numbers coming through. a miss for aramco. we will get the details on that as well. the u.s. election. it is officially voting day in the u.s. the first polling station has opened already. the small town in new hampshire has six registered voters. it has opened polling at midnight since 1960. we are seeing live pictures now of donald trump i believe in grand rapids, michigan. there we go. the live pictures of the former president and the republican nominee speaking in grand rapids, michigan. we have been hearing and seeing pictures as well of kamala harris. both candidates spent their last hours campaigning in the swing state of pennsylvania. now trump is in michigan for an election on track to be one of

the closest ever. trump continuing that speech, the final of this campaign for the republican candidate. vonnie quinn standing by for the latest. what were the closing messages? vonnie: it was interesting to listen to the campaigns and trump still campaigning even on election day. the typical things that had been in susan voters recently, the economic messaging, immigration messaging and so on. however, i will say donald trump in the last few hours has been very grievance filled. he's been talking about how the election is already basically won for him. he said the republicans are leading by hundreds and thousands of votes. i'm directly quoting there. he also said north carolina is reliable for me, i never lost and i don't think we will start now. that said, that's not what the polls are reviewing. you mentioned dixville notch. that's not what voting in that town has revealed either.

there are four republicans registered in that town, two independents, and the vote was three to kamala harris, three to donald trump, so split down the middle, just like the final polls are, which is a bit of an aid to kamala harris because she picked up a little steam in those polls. tom: what is the mood? what does that suggest about the mood and both campaigns as we close out this historic campaign in the u.s.? vonnie: you look at those polls and it suggests kamala harris's campaign should be pleased with the result. still skeptical going in the polling day. 81 million votes have already been cast and is a huge number of votes. what they have been trying to do is just get out any of those last-minute voters that are trying to make up their minds. those voters that are called low propensity voters that maybe sometimes vote, sometimes don't vote, they want them to get out even if you are voting down ballot republican to vote kamala harris at the top of the ticket.

the mood has to be fairly good in the harris camp. all those polls that i mentioned were within the margin of error. it is so tight, the selection. the pbs marist poll showing the veep beating donald trump by 4% nationally. that's a huge turnaround in the last few weeks. the new york times poll showing the vice president beating trump in north carolina, which he won in 2020 and 2016. that's why he was referring to north carolina tonight in his campaign speech. it's really also play for. we should know the fairly safe states relatively quickly. however, the swing states that are tossup's, those 93 electoral votes, is anyone's guess. if it's within 1% they go to a recount and then there could even be some legal challenges. tom: vonnie quinn with a great set up of the -- of what to expect. the timing crucial. it could take days to get a clear result. vonnie quinn will be covering this.

let's get to the market reaction. market liquidity evaporating head of the biggest risk event of the year. let's bring in valerie. how are investors readying for this election? >> we are preparing for a knife fight tonight. it will be a good one. the cleanest trade is still seen as the u.s. dollar bill let me take you through the asset classes. in the volatility market, a 1% swing in the s&p over the course of tomorrow's trading session. most of that movement is focused in crypto and clean energy stocks. crypto stocks are implying around a 10% swing. clean energy stocks are seen as a, play with a 6% -- as a k amala play with a 6% swing. this is perhaps showing we are set for a surgeon volatility once the winter becomes clear if it does later tonight. the real jazz is happening in

the fx volatility space. the dollar is seen as the cleanest election play and let me tell you what's going on in volatility in the chinese yuan. it's at a record high for fx implied volatility for the offshore and onshore you want if you switch on to my next -- offshore and onshore yuan if you switch to my next chart. also euro-dollar and dollar-peso volatility. these are at yearly highs, tom. the cleanest play is seen as the dollar and behind that it is all these economies that are exposed to the threat of tariffs, being that china, mexico or here in europe. tom: you had me at monkey knife fight frankly. a great breakdown of how these asset classes could adjust around whatever election results we get, a focus clearly on the dollar and then on the downside potentially if you get a trump victory would be some of those commodity fx.

the mexican peso, for example, in focus. all asset classes in the spotlight before we get the result. markets reporter valerie tytel with the details. let's cross over to asia. avril hong cindy by in singapore. quite a day when it comes to chinese equities. avril: absolutely. interesting how they seem to be shrugging off the u.s. election, more concerned with what is happening to mystically. we got data that showed continued signs of improvements and how stimulus is working its way through the economy, through sentiment, and this is following a trend from data, including factory activity in the past week, that shows improvement. the big thing markets are jumping on today where the headlines out of china's mpc. top legislators are said to be considering a proposal that would allow local governments to kind of move some of their off-balance-sheet debt to their

official accounts. this is a way for them to fees there -- to ease their financial burden, freeing up money for things like construction and employee salaries, so something that would be stimulative for the economy. this is what we are seeing in chinese equities, outperformance, extending gains from yesterday. we are seeing offshore yuan looking flat against the greenback despite, as valerie was alluding to, the implied volatility looking all sorts of crazy. some risk to this potential plan that might be put into action, a so-called debt swap, as flagged by mark kornfield -- mark cranfield. there could be negative ratings action, something for bond traders to consider in china. process asset in japan, today, we now still have stock market action on the nikkei and on the topix because it's the first day

where the tokyo stock exchange is seeing extended trading hours, an extra 30 minutes. in terms of the price action, this is a recouping of friday's steep losses thanks to governor ueda's hawkish tone. dollar-yen is getting a boost from dovish comments from a potential kingmaker in local politics out of japan but also consider the u.s. election and the fed, the risk to the upside for dollar-yen as well, tom. tom: avril hong in singapore with the asian market action, the volatility in the fx space, thank you. now to a major corporate story that's broken. boeing workers have voted to accept a new labor contract and end the strike that's crippled the plane production for the company for more than seven weeks. >> they secured a victory and voted by 59% to accept the agreement and they get to move forward. the strike will end and now it is our job to get back to work

and start building the airplanes, increase the rates and bring this company back to financial success. tom: for more, let's bring in bloomberg's transport reporter, danny lee, who has been across the stories -- story for us from day one. what does it mean for the company? danny: it means that boeing can get back to focusing on what it does best, building planes. still, that's going to take some time for workers who will get back into the factories wednesday and then we will start to see boeing ramp-up or doctrine -- ramp-up production, but that will take time, which was a concern for boeing and the union workers who went on strike, but as he said, this was a defining moment for the union workers who secured that substantial gain. it was ultimately passed by 59% of the union membership on 26,000 votes, but still, there is dissent. you can see that with the unhappiness still around

pensions. that is something they will be fighting about for a while to come. so while the strike moment is over, there is that tension underlying that. for the new ceo, they can focus on what needs to happen as far as writing the ship. tom: so crossing that major hurdle for the new ceo. what is next on his lengthy, presumably lengthy, to do list? danny: the key thing now is to figure out what boeing needs to focus on next. does he jump to the space unit, which has been a money losing business, has cost boeing a lot of money? and the cash burn boeing will face into the first half of next year, how will they manage to settle that? there are so many things financially and also strategically that they will need to focus on, and of course, with the strike being done, this should alleviate the threat of a

credit rating downgrade that was at risk from the strike. tom: bloomberg transport reporter danny lee, thank you very much indeed. a consequential day for boeing with the ending of the strike. coming up, the future of u.s.-china relations as voting gets underway in the u.s.. we will get the view from the european union chamber of commerce in china. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back. chinese shares climbing after the services index picked up more than expected and the top legislative body reviewed a proposal to refinance the hidden that of local governments. comments from the premier at the china international import expo in shanghai also helping to

boost sentiment as he took aim at the eu and u.s. over trade policies. this comes as voting is now underway in the u.s. election. standing by in shanghai is bloomberg's chief north asia correspondent, stephen engle, who is at the expo in shanghai. stephen? stephen: yeah, a lot of these chinese leaders, including the premier, have been talking of the prospect of stimulus as the standing committee meets behind closed doors and will possibly unveil this week some stimulus, but there premier saying they will hit the target of gdp growth around 5%, also talking about opening up the economy and the nation more to foreign investment. let's get more on that from the european chamber of china, the vice president of the european chamber and chair of the chain -- the shanghai chapter,

carlo d'andrea. the premier is saying the right things. i know in the more recent papers that came out from the european chamber you talk about the members wanting more action and not just more talk, so did he say the right things? carlo: first of all, it's a good thing that he came here to shanghai. last year, it was that he did not calm. so it is good. it's important that he said the right things but it's even more importance if he does because you have may have made -- you have me -- you may have read in our publication members are suffering because we would like to see more reforms happening and happening faster. >> what is it going to take? more fiscal stimulus will help the underlying economy, but getting that sentiment up -- i saw in the survey that the

number of european companies, your members, that are plenty more investment is at a record low. carlo: yes. sadly these are the consequences that you're having when you are losing confidence in the market. this also happens to match with the fact that for the first time after many years of 70% of members believing what they are doing in china is similar if not lower than the other parts of the world and so that quarter starts to think why we should put the money in china if it became more and more competitive. very good that there are new stimulus. we have almost monthly meetings with shanghai's municipality and authority to listen to them, the new implementation and the new rules. the problem is that there is very -- china lost a bit of the coolness of the time prior to

covid. stephen: what is the chance or likelihood of a full-blown trade war breaking out because of the ev tariffs that the eu has imposed on chinese ev's? there's talk of course of retaliation, whether it is cognac in france or port in the netherlands and spain or other products. how are you feeling? stephen: it's important to leaders meet at events like this when you have a different representative coming to shanghai. it's very important. as well we have a delegation from china to europe in order to understand the framework where we can cooperate or not. we cannot hide ourselves that the relationship between the u.s. and china is at one of the lowest points ever. what we need to do is continue to find common ground. for instance, if you ask what is new over this, i can tell you, we have been advocating for many years an event for all the companies, including small and

medium enterprises, some that were excluded due to the economic burden, and especially because this is a development trade fair more than a trade fair itself, so this year for the first time, we are going to have more medium enterprises in dialogue with the shanghai authorities and we will attempt -- and we had 50 companies come with those to make this market more accessible for small and medium enterprises. stephen: i'm not going to ask you to the european chamber would like to see in the white house but that obviously is something in the background because people are watching it. later today, there will be an election in the u.s., as you know. how would better relations between china and the united states help european companies? carlo: today is the opening of the meeting in shanghai. you have this important election . it started with the one in

europe last may, the year full of elections. so it will still be complicated no matter whoever wins for doing business with china. if you think kamala harris will win, maybe we'll have a more predictable business environment. if the -- we have to advocate that overall business should get easier. in order to do that we need to find common ground where the wto should be the forum and other organizations where we are able to have an exchange. stephen: china is taking that ev dispute to the debbie too. carlo d'andrea, thank you for your time on bloomberg television in shanghai. tom, i will send it back to you from shanghai. tom: great stuff. stephen engle on the ground for us at the international import expo in shanghai. beijing has filed a complaint with the wto over those eu

tariffs steve was referencing on chinese electric vehicle imports, accusing the bloc of protectionism. the complaint raises the risk of greater tit-for-tat confrontation in a trade relationship worth more than $800 billion just last year. the two eyes are still talking with the eu sending officials to beijing to discuss a possible agreement on pricing. coming up, a closer look at europe's view of the u.s. election and how the poll could impact some of the continent's fragile coalitions. that's coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back. back to how the markets are

thinking about this election. morgan stanley's chief u.s. equity strategist says the election could present a market clearing opportunity. mike wilson told us what he sees as the top concerns for traders ahead of the vote that is now taking place in the u.s. >> the general trend in labor is down. so the equity market is worried about growth slowing and that's why the fed is cutting interest rates so the bond market goes up because growth is better and people believe that, then it could be ok for equities. if bonni -- if bond market yields go up because of other things, it could be a problem. >> the knee-jerk reaction supposedly is bond yields could go up and equities in other sectors, financials -- why should risk assets continue to

rally if yields continue to surge simply on this idea that the deficit is increasing and bond vigilantes could suddenly be back? mike: first, the financials are different because that is a different call and i think that is fairly visible. if you have a trump presidency and maybe even a red sweep, you could get a more lenient regulatory environment, but that's kind of the financial story, but that's unique. we don't think the financials have rally that much on that trade yet. it's been more about the third quarter earnings season and the fact that we went into that with not a lot of high expectations. so i think there's scope for further follow-through on certain "trump trades." at the same time, there's probably the other side, which i think a lot of negative trades have played out from the trump trades. bonds have sold out and renewables and things like consumer goods companies will be hurt by tariffs and they have been hammered. if harris wins, you could see a pretty big rebound in some markets. there's a lot of permutations here. it's not as clear-cut. i think you said it exactly right. it's all about the set up. ok?

stocks and asset prices move based on positioning as much as on the actual news. i'm looking for a clearing event. ok? i'm hoping this is a clearing event and we can kind of get back to what we get paid to do, which is analyze interest rates, earnings growth and kind of multiples, trying to figure out what is the fundamental case here, in my guess tha is -- guess is that they could take a month. tom: mike wilson speaking to bloomberg there. coming up, how the u.s. election has split opinion in europe. more on how the result could impact the eu. that is coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ it's our son, he is always up in our business. it's the verizon 5g home internet i got us. oh... he used to be a competitive gamer but with the higher lag, he can't keep up with his squad. so now we're his “squad”. what are kevin's plans for the fall? he's going to college. out of state, yeah. -yeah in the fall. change of plans, i've decided to stay local. oh excellent! oh that's great! why would i ever leave this? -aw! we will do anything to get him gaming again. you and kevin need to fix this internet situation.

heard my name! i swear to god, kevin! -we told you to wait in the car. everyone in my old squad has xfinity. less lag, better gaming! i'm gonna need to charge you for three people.

>> i'm tom mackenzie, these are

the stories that set your agenda. a tight election result and china's services sector grows. poll workers except the wage deal and and a strike, clearing the way for the plane maker to restore operations. economic impulses and positive commentary, additional tools. the focus is on u.s. election,

voting has started, investors staying on the sidelines. results may not be known for days. ftse futures are lower. snp move higher, nasdaq looking to add 25 points. let's flip the board. the story in focus, treasuries unmoved. 68,000, for the cryptocurrency. currently unchanged.

just briefly this was a redhead, the india index sliding from the september peak, downside sense september, rotation unwound. pat is the story. let's get to the key event of the yeah, major impact globally on ukraine, on world trade. let's bring in all of her berlin. where does europe stand on harris and trump? >> we talk about impact and

differing views, this is one of the sort of top issues, research showing the 10% tariff could shave a percentage point pop gdp growth, this will be a sore point, the further north in denmark, they are pro-harris.

what about the rest of the world? when you break this down overall there is a clear favoring harris. would you vote for? 53% of people say they would vote for harris.

the spread, under whom do you think there is going to be more stability? what we saw 19% think it would be more stable. tom: great breakdown let's bring

in scott from the university college of douglas. scott: seven states and play. you see an emphasis and we can move forward.

for example the madison square garden, they derided women and it could be decisive. tom: 17 million votes have been cost of today. any signals? scott: that is 44% of the total turnout, i don't think you can read that as being democrat or

trump but the higher the terror now favors the democrats because you have the highest turnout since 1900. there's a higher turnout amongst women than men and harris enjoys an advantage whereas trump had been 10 or 11% with men. that has been slipping. >> we have the presidential vote in elections so the house in the senate. multiple scenarios, where should scrutiny be for congress? scott: republicans will take the

senate. democrats have a majority but republicans are a lock to take west virginia and montana. democrats may hold seats or at least five of them. the republican majority could flip, it will come down to four or five seats. that is important because if democrats control the house it is harder to ram through legislation. that is where budget bills start and it means committee chairs are much more powerful in the u.s.. tom: there are going to be states that take longer than others.

bloomberg done some reporting that may be trump declares himself the winner prematurely, what is the risk in the days ahead and how much resilience is there? scott: when they count ballots pennsylvania does not count early votes until the polls close. trump came out at two or three in the morning in the u.k. and declared that he one. he said that's it. the boat shifted and gave biden the victory. he may do the same thing if he is losing whether narrow or more substantial he will declare this

rigged, put pressure on governors to flip the results. series after series of legal cases, putting pressures on legislators in congress to block the certification. tom: scott from the clinton institute in dublin.

lines crossing from the turbine maker in denmark, they see the adjusted margin at the low-end between four or 5%, estimates had been for four or 5%. in tums of revenue, five .2 billion euros, estimates had been 4.8 billion. in terms of other items it looks like that was a miss, they had to account for euros in items.

revenue again a beat above estimates, guide around the revenue story. more when we speak to the chief executive henrik anderson at 8:30 a.m. u.k. time. coming up, the world's biggest dividend, aramco results next, this -- is bloomberg.

>> welcome back, 30 $1 billion for saudi aramco, the multi

trillion dollar transformation plan to widen the deficit. let's bring in joumanna bercetche in abu dhabi. what were the key takeaways? joumanna: good morning. this is the third quarter of the clients. 15% lower than where it was and they put it down to weaker margins and lower oil prices, but also they have been producing fewer barrels per day, 90. in line with voluntary cuts we

have been talking about and they have postponed the decision to put more barrels into the market which tells you a lot. going back to these earnings there appears to be pressure on them dave maintained the payout despite the cash flow number, so you've got a higher dividend than the total cash flow raising questions. dividend is important, key revenue source for government and an important source of finance.

macro outlook not so supportive. tom: indeed. you are on the ground joumanner , what is the agenda on the ground? joumanna: a is an opportunity to talk about long-term drivers, sources of demand, data centers and still talking about supply, production but then geopolitics in addition to the u.s. elections and how harris for

trump could affect the landscape. i sat down with the indian energy minister and asked him about trump what that could mean . let's listen to what he had to say. >> when it came to oil we had price cap, russian energy was coming in. critical minerals for europe, eu , setting oil to japan -- please

will look at it from my point of view should i be happier poured out? we are happy to budget by oil and how might discount, competitively you would be all right. they what about sanctions, there was a price cap if you have a piece of art percent, boot brought up producing 30 million barrels a day. now they have got to come down, the market determines these thing. nobody is asking me.

we are answerable to stakeholders. >> let me tell you one thing, the opec put out a place suggesting india will be the biggest driver, three times as much as china which puts the india minister in a strategic position and you heard him saying we will go with the cheapest price, we don't care so very interesting commentary. tom: yeah, that is a -- that is a remarkable pivot hence the importance of speaking to him. joumanna on the ground with key

interviews, thank you. european and u.s. intelligence officials believe russia is placing incendiary devices on cargo planes. a parcel that caught fire was flaunted by russia. spain's deadly storms cause chaos. it comes as there is damage. king philippe they warned residents about misinformation and false claims after he and pedro sanchez were pelted by

mind. stay with us, this is bloomberg.

tom: drawing attention to a chart that shows correlation breaking down between u.s. yields and odds of donald trum'' s victory. you seen the yields up as expectation has built that trump could win and that has changed, we are now neck and neck and the odds have come down, the betting

odds have adjusted, less charts than previously. yields are high with terrorists, higher yields than the backend when it comes to the treasury. let's move on to the cause around jp morgan, the u.s. dolla come january 2025, expectations you get a stronger u.s. dollar. the opening trade is next, this is bloomberg.

it's our son, he is always up in our business. it's the verizon 5g home internet i got us. oh... he used to be a competitive gamer but with the higher lag, he can't keep up with his squad. so now we're his “squad”. what are kevin's plans for the fall? he's going to college. out of state, yeah. -yeah in the fall. change of plans, i've decided to stay local. oh excellent! oh that's great! why would i ever leave this? -aw! we will do anything to get him gaming again. you and kevin need to fix this internet situation. heard my name! i swear to god, kevin! -we told you to wait in the car. everyone in my old squad has xfinity. less lag, better gaming! i'm gonna need to charge you for three people.

>> good morning, i am and or edwards along with guy johnson and kriti gooped her. the usa following one of the most dramatic