>> there is a very bearish set up of investors going into the election day. >> as the presidential and probably senate races ago, the polls are razor thin in the communities that matter. >> there's a big difference between what voters in the swing states feel are important issues. >> there are a lot of conflicting signals, most of which are showing this to be a tie or tossup race. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with the jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and

annmarie hordern. jonathan: a deep breath, this could be a long week. good morning, good morning. surveillance starts now. it is election day, 2020 four. equity futures on the s&p 500 are elevated bite .2%. up by one third on the nasdaq one hundred. november 3, 2020, 33.69 on the s&p 500. we have come along way. even further in the bond market. the two-year four years ago, 16 basis points. right now, 4.1723. it has been quite a journey. lisa: this is why the bond market is the epicenter of expected volatility. such a different moment post pandemic, post inflation surge, post stimulus pumped into the economy that surged that levels. how much more oxygen in the room is therefore either proposal on either side of the aisle? jonathan: seven swing states the

process and why this evening could be long and why this week could be even longer. annmarie: it could take a long time to count all these votes. we already have 83 million americans who have voted. some of those are early voting, some are mail in ballots. maricopa county, arizona take days. in 2020, the election was called four days after the election on a saturday. in 2016, it was called the following day. if they are quick, maybe we get it in the middle of the night. 3:00 a.m. in 2016. 2020, it will be a few days. jonathan: in 2016, the polls missed the big shift towards donald trump. in 2022 for the midterms we talked a million times about the importance of the economy, the economy and inflation. republicans will wipe the floor with the democrats. then it was something else. abortion and the democrats held

steady. lisa: implicit in your comment, the right comment to make, we don't trust the polls. what we get the sense from a lot of pollsters coming out and saying that they are crowding, doing things with polls that don't make sense to me. they're only revealing the polls that agree with the general narrative that we have, which is why the poll was interesting in iowa. she said it surprised me, too. but we can't just choose what to publish. annmarie: if that is correct you will see a pink wave. this is the first after the dobb's decision. while the economy has maintained the top issue, that is what people vote on? we don't know yet. if it comes down to the economy, oxford economics say in pennsylvania that everyone is focused on that a mass amount of money and time has been spent on, if it is inflation and the

cost of living, trump wins by 90,000 votes. dobbs, harris wins by 70,000 votes. jonathan: julian emanuel of evercore saying the bull market will continue past the election. we will catch up with robert casey as harris and trump make their closing arguments. rhonda clark of citi calling for a 50 basis point rate cut in december. we begin with trump and harrison a dead heat on election day in america with polls showing a tight race across seven key swing states that will likely decide the election. let's get to team coverage of the campaigns in florida and d.c. described the mood in florida going into this one. >> good morning. we are in palm beach waiting for former president donald trump the touchdown early this morning. this is where he is expected to rally supporters later for an election night watch party as the results poor in. -- pour in.

he has something else on his agenda. he has devoted himself. he is a registered voter in florida and decided not early vote despite waffling on the issue. 82 million americans already cast ballots into election day, but it's clear that he is going to use this as an example to supporters. at this point in the race, it is all about turnout. we heard him use his final rallies into today to urge voters to get out to vote and to air some grievances in what appeared to be a final push by his campaign to capitalize on what they see is a dissatisfaction among voters with the status quo. i can tell you that our most recent bloomberg news morning console polls show 68% of likely voters in the seven key battleground states say that the countries on the wrong track. whether or not trump convinced enough voters that he is the one to fix that remains one of the big questions into today. lisa: what is the closing message for the vice president? >> the vice president yesterday

campaigned all day in pennsylvania putting her final efforts in the commonwealth. a key battleground state in determining who will return to the white house. i want to highlight, that yesterday during one of her campaign stops in pennsylvania, she went to a puerto rican restaurant with representative aoc and governor josh shapiro. her campaign, democrats have been trying to make the final inroads with the puerto rican community with a large presence in pennsylvania and trying to play catch-up against the republican party and donald trump estate made significant inroads with the latino community, puerto ricans. i thought it was interesting last night that as the clock was winding down that is a stop that they committed to and also in her closing argument she was really focused on the contrast between her and former president donald trump and is really leaning into that as she makes

her final speeches. doing the final media rounds to get that boat across to voters that it is a new generation coming in to take over the white house or we go back to former president donald trump and she has tried to lean into what donald trump part two could look like. jonathan: equity futures are high by .2%. julian emanuel of evercore, good morning. how different is this compare to other election cycles that you have lived and traded through? julian: there has been a lot of hand pulling because the partisans that we talked to, republicans and democrats, feel as if the other side wins that there is a potential that you get a series of negative events that could adversely affect the

markets and the economy. even though the polls are as tight as they are now, the evidence does not support that in the least. interestingly, and this feels to all of us may be because of the social media saturation, etc. etc., that this is the closest race in history. it's not. there have been a number of races where we come into november and the margin is 2, , or 0 and the stock market has gone up into year end six out of seven times. people put their partisan hats aside and recognize the fact that we are in a good earnings cycle, a good economics cycle, and the fed is going to cut rates. lisa: this is the tone that i've heard indifferent strategists' notes, the economy is doing well, companies are earning, everyone is waiting for an outcome and then they can keep

going with what they were doing before. how offsides with this market be if there were a surprise, a sweep or a contested election that drags on for more than a week? julian: to us, over the last month or so, we've been making the point that our 6000 year end price target, which we've had for some time, is a probability-weighted number based on whether it is a sweep or divided and uncontested outcome or divided and contested outcome. history is informative. in years where the stock market is this strong this late in the year, the propensity is that you get a performance chase. if we get what i would call a clean outcome, whichever side wins, that is where you go to 6000, through 6000. conversely, if this drags on into next week or the week after you get a type of selloff on the order that we saw in 2000.

down 5%, 12%, which we think will be a buying opportunity. lisa: people were talking about how this time is different and this election cycle will somehow set their trajectory for the next 12 months and potentially make the difference between the 10-year yield at 5% or 3.5%. the difference between an investment cycle and not. are you saying that's not true? as long as we get a clean outcome the trajectory for the economy is pretty much going to be the same? julian: look, we know that both sides' policies will likely expand the deficit. that's very clear and is likely to underpin inflation.that is part of the narrative as to why yields have risen. it's also the fact that down in 3.6% in september, you are pricing in a recession. there is no evidence of that whatsoever. the other thing to us is very informative, that has only been

whether -- one other time in history where the fed cut interest rates and the two-year yield has risen in the manner in which it has risen over the last month and a half. that was 1995, a pretty darn good time for stocks. we think that will continue. annmarie: you don't think this election is close? historically, 2016 and 2020 were close. trump won the blue wall with 77,000 votes in 2016. that is as close as you can get. julian: we do think that the election is close. what we are saying is this is not the only one. 2012 come you came in with not knowing between romney and obama. other elections are similar. the point being -- and i will tell you, we spent the weekend and battleground michigan in a suburban community in detroit where you had harris-walz signs

and 20 feet away were trump-vance signs. it was very even. those people are going to put away their signs and get on with their lives in a couple of days. lisa: this has nothing to do with the markets, but what was your take away? julian: i got my susan b anthony flip of the coin. jonathan: the cfo said this of marriott international. a measure of demand declining in november -- of past election cycles. this is weighing on business activity this time around. lisa: why make a bigger statement about what you're going to do regardless if it favors one of the other if you will become a potentially political punching bag, which we have seen has come up with different corporate actions. i'm thinking of new pond steel -- nippon steel or ford with the

factories in new mexico. it is hard to make a deal where everything can become a meme for a political campaign. jonathan: are you staying up late? julian: i think so. jonathan: thank you, sir. an update on stories elsewhere with your bloomberg brief, dani burger. dani: european and u.s. intelligence officials believe that russia is behind a plan to place incendiary devices on cargo planes bound for north america. german security services think that a partial fire in july was probably planted by russia. officials told bloomberg that they are taking the alleged plot seriously and expect moscow to attempt similar acts in the future. last night joe rogan dutch announced his endorsement for former president trump. the popular podcaster praised the great and powerful elon musk, saying that he made the most compelling case for trumpet you will ever hear. the endorsement could offer a boost to the trump campaign

give rogan's popularity a mong young men. quarterly revenue beat analysts estimates and raise the forecast for operating income over the current period citing higher demand for ai software in the u.s. shares of palantir are up 140 4% so far this year. jonathan: up next on the program, it is election day in america. fmr. pres. trump: with your vote tomorrow we can fix every single problem our country faces and lead america. v.p. harris: it is time for a new generation of leadership in america. jonathan: closing arguments next. live from new york city, good morning. ♪

jonathan: equity futures on the

s&p 500 are up 5.2%. in the bond market, yields are lower yesterday and higher this morning up two basis points. under surveillance this morning, it is election day in america. fmr. pres. trump: my message to americans tonight is simple, we don't have to live this way. we don't. we don't and we won't. we won't. we don't have to settle for weakness, incompetence, decline, and the k. with your vote tomorrow we can fix every single problem our country faces and a lead america. v.p. harris: it is time for a new generation of leadership in america and i am ready to offer that leadership as the next president of the united states of america. jonathan: donald trump and kamala harris closing out campaigns in a final push across battleground states. candidates coming in locked in a tie across every major polling outlet.

a confident call on the race right income our base case expectation has been and firmly remains that vice president kamala harris will win the presidency at 65% odds. rob, good morning. 2016 or 2022, how does this one break? rob: 2022 voting earlier better than 2020, but closing the gap today. jonathan: how important is reproductive rights on the ballot going to be? rob: in arizona we are seeing women turn out as much as expected. everywhere else abortion is on the ballot nationally. wisconsin, pennsylvania, the blue wall, it is a huge issue. in some it is as big as the economy. we are seeing that drive turnout among many voters, especially women. annmarie: you are optimistic after you saw and seltzer's poll over the weekend that this could be a pink wave? rob: i think and seltzer is one of the best to do it in her poll

may be an outlier. we don't think that harris will win in iowa, but selzer is one of the best to do it. older women turning out more for harris, we could see that. annmarie: older women who remember roe and now dobbs in their lifetime. rob: the blue wall is holding everything constant. if she wins michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania that is 270 on the dot, as long as she wins nebraska, which she will. if she loses pennsylvania, it gets more difficult but she will look to north carolina, georgia, arizona, and nevada and will have to win two of those four to get to 270. annmarie: out of the sun belt states, which are most likely to keep or flip? rob: nevada. harris is running worse in nevada than she should be and worse than buying and in 2020, but democrats have eight

phenomenal turnout machine in nevada, the senator harry reid machine. she closes the gap the republicans got in early voting. georgia and north carolina are similar states, but georgia, we seen it move bluer and bluer in a large part thanks to stacey abrams and others. georgia, nevada, maybe north carolina, the one state where harris is underperforming is arizona. trump is up two to three points. that is actually a pretty wide gap. everybody likes to say that it is a 50-50 race. i don't get is in arizona. lisa: i don't have any feeling about this and i have no edge on this, so when i sound smart i say who is winning and then i can give a sense of what is going on in markets and understand this. you think actually the betting markets are completely skewed? why? rob: the betting market that is the most skewed is pulling market thanks to a trader in france who has put in at least $40 million, last week, onto trump. apparently his family doesn't

know that he is doing it, but good luck to him today. for us, the betting markets are an interesting indicator of direction. a move towards trump over the past couple of weeks, frankly over the last couple days to harris, but improbability -- and i'm not a political scientist -- but if you look at the research, where betting markets differ from polls is that they get it wrong and polls are more accurate. lisa: polls have also been raked over the coals, or under the coals, whatever the expression is. it seems people don't trust polls to get it right. nate silver has come out and said they only release results that seem to work with the narrative that it is a neck and neck race. do you think people are purposefully overlaying their rall results with models to try to adhere to this basically 50-50 narrative in the market? rob: nate silver is smarter than

i am, so when he talks about the polling process, i listen. it is statistically improbable that we are getting all of these 48-47 races all the time. if there is an average amount of variants we would see plus or minus three, like we saw in iowa over the weekend. pollsters are doing the best that they can, but we have to remember that it is an art and not a science. whether or not they are putting their thumb on the scale, they always do because they have to decide how they will collect the poll, how the process for collection will be, and who they will talk to and listen to. that is always an art and not a science. jonathan: there are a few senate races, you mentioned nevada. in pennsylvania. what are other races that you're are following this evening? rob: arizona, ohio, pennsylvania are the most important for democrats to hold if they will have any shot of holding the senate. we don't think the democrats will hold the senate. west virginia obviously goes

republican. we think jon tester in montana. it has been bad to bet against tester the last couple of cycles, but we think that in this election we won't see the split ticket voting that we saw previously. that becomes republican, 51-49 jordy. elsewhere, pennsylvania and ohio, and you know, if you want a surprise or some upside silver lining for democrats, nebraska, texas. annmarie: tell us about texas. is it possible ted cruz to lose his seat? rob: congressman alred has run a great campaign. i think eventually texas will turn blue and change the entire mat. we think that ted cruz holds onto his seat this cycle. allred is running a great campaign, but i don't think the democrats are there statewide to win. we saw daimler not -- similar numbers out of the beto o'rourke and ted cruz campaign. we think that ted cruz wins the

seat. annmarie: you think the senate goes red, but 51 or 54? rob: 51. the incumbents hold their seats, but west virginia and montana, republicans have an easy path to 51. lisa: all of us will be not sleeping for the next 24 hours and you will see us in disgruntled and disheveled form over the remainder of the week. we also get a fed decision. after the election is over, which party do you think has the bigger reckoning? what does that reckoning look like? i think it is one of the most important questions we will be facing. rob: if harris loses, progresses from the left are really going to do their best to pull democrats left over the next two years before the midterms. that is in our base case, but that's a clear path forward for democrats. it will get more centrist than the current democratic machinery, regardless of what you think about kamala harris. if trump loses we have an internal debate.

the upside for all of us, particularly for the republican party, is they are able to move on from trump with an amicable break pretty quickly and allow the next generation to move up. i think it will be a lot easier said than done. donald trump if he loses is going to have a lot of legal challenges to face. it's easier to do that as the head of a major party than cast to the side, so i think he will hold onto power for longer and more vigorously than some of the republicans would like. jonathan: can you think of a single person in a position to pick up the pieces if he stepped aside? annmarie: it would be challenging, because it needs to be someone with the maga bona fides, but those trending are more centrist. nikki haley was brushed aside and she is persona non grata for maga camp. jonathan: equity futures on the s&p upward by .2%. the message you will hear repeatedly today, afternoon,

tonight, this could be a very long week ahead of us. lisa: are you tying to telegraph your day ahead? this is what everyone is hunkering down. jonathan: i am suggesting this could take a while. 2:30 eastern time is when we could wrap this up. 2016, i knew where i was. i was walking through hyde park with this one, annmarie, and we found out 4:00 p.m. london time. lisa: i'm curious to know what the snacks of choice are. we can compare notes. jonathan: there is a fed decision later this week. citi just around the corner. ♪ ♪♪ the winter escapes sale is now on. visit sandals.com or call 1-800-sandals.

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jonathan: equities with a small bounce up, .25%. the nasdaq, up after declining a little bit yesterday. big moves in the bond market. last week at the two-year ended 10-year up by double digits, today down by double digits. are you keeping up? 4.30 90. the polls rebalance towards harris over the weekend which projected this into the bond market monday morning. lisa: the bid is 15 basis points. you're talking about the bond market at the epicenter of all

volatility for this election cycle. to mean, that's the take away. i want to note, yesterday we had a three-year auction. normally three year auctions are easy. they are typically digested well. this one, not so much. today a 10 year auction, tomorrow a 30 year auction at a time where is this much skittishness around the u.s. bond market. i'm watching closely. jonathan: we will see what kind of backdrop we've got for that. the fx market, the euro was stronger, the dollar is weaker, the bigger move the mexican peso with a stronger rally. that is the trade story front and center. lisa: basically the argument is if donald trump gets into office and more so if there is a red sweep, there could be substantial tears placed on mexico, which would be dollar strength and peso weakness. that is why that has become one of the proxies. it's interesting where traders have honed in on what the proxies are.

sometimes you can tell more about that than even about who will win or what the policies are. jonathan: that is not a sweep, that is a presidency. that his tariffs. the rest of it, you'll differentials and things like that, that is about the sweep. that is tax cuts and what happens with the budget in america. you're taking the temperature different ways across foreign exchange, which is something to keep an ion this week. lisa: especially tonight when everyone is taking snacks, haven't gotten word from other people what snacks will be. annmarie: celsius. lisa: celsius is not a snack. there is a question about what people will be reading into the polls that come out, how they treat, with the proxy say, and what narrative is creative. annmarie: in 2020, you had the individuals who voted that day and it looked like a red sweep. then you had to say, settle down, they are still counting votes. democrats decided to do mail in ballots.

in states like in sylvania, you can't start counting those until the day of -- pennsylvania, you can't start counting those until the day. it could take a few days, maybe even a week. jonathan: equity futures up .2%. election day in america, polls show kamala harris and donald trump in a tight race across several key swing states that will decide the next president. the polls are incredibly tight and everyone is conditioned by two very unique, significant election cycles. the presidency in 2016 and midterms of 2022. a very important decision took place in this country. lisa: speaker mccarthy recently come his vibe was that this would be red across the board. i said come you said that there would be of red wave in 2020 two. he said, not exactly. we look historically at donald trump, he won 2016. 2018, they lost the house by 41 seats.

2020 is when he lost again when he ran for president and they were able to flip the senate, the democrats. he is up again in 2024. are voters going to give him another shot even though we've seen a long list of him losing elections? or are they going to say, we want something new in terms of individual, because she is an incumbent? lisa: two month ago people thought that this would be a contested election and you saw that in the options for the s&p 500. completely faded. people are like, we will find out by tomorrow, it's fine. that is the tone around the table, the market will rally, we will get an answer, we can move on. i don't know how much this is based in reality, but none of us seem to have an edge. jonathan: i hope the optimists among us are correct. boeing ending a 53 day strike that has crippled production of the airplane manufacturer. the deal includes a 38 percent

wage increase over four years and enhanced retirement contributions. the stock is up about 1.9%. there was doubt yesterday given this failed a few times already that this would happen. lisa: including for michael o'leary of ryanair. he said why stop there. from the head of the union you heard that this was a defining moment, victory, we stood strong and tall. we won. what are they winning back to? what are they going to walk into at a time when this is a company that needs to reshape its business model and understand how quickly to meet ryanair's demands it seemed to make yesterday? annmarie: it is a transition i boeing, but the workers are getting a $12,000 signing bonus, health-care benefits back, there is a sigh of relief at the white house. president biden putting out a statement congratulating the support of his economic team, including julie sue and lael brainard, and goes in for this, collective bargaining works.

i wonder if there is an edge, union joe making a last statement about collective bargaining works. we are on the side of union members. jonathan: o'leary going to italy. lisa: the abba museum. jonathan: he was singing and dancing. fight the interview, a lot of feedback about that. the blocking of musk's million dollar voter giveaway. he was giving $1 million a way for people who signed a petition for free speech and the right to bear arms. calling in an illegal lottery. annmarie: elon musk's law you're saying that this isn't a lottery, it is a job. a salary to voters rather than a lottery payoff the person becomes a spokesperson, part of the pack. they are basically saying that this is a job, not a lottery, and the person is getting a salary. jonathan: those people know

that? annmarie: i think those people thought that they were picked at random as part of a lottery. lisa: it is unclear. the lawyer said that these may not have been randomly selected. annmarie: do the people know that they were not randomly selected? lisa: there's a lot of uncertainty. jonathan: we need to find one of those guys and interview them and see what they've done with cash. lisa: tesla? jonathan: possibly. discount? possibly. economists expecting the fed to cut rates by 20 five basis points on thursday. veronica clark, the december rate cut decision will depend on labor market data and we expect a further softening to lead to a 50 basis point rate cut. veronica, good morning. dani and manus said we would get no cut. why 50?

veronica: there seems to be a reflation narrative, but i think it is overdone. inflation alone the fed can be cutting. we had a stronger september, but we saw eci, employment cost index, that has been slowing. home prices are pretty soft. they can cut on inflation alone. i think we are seeing concerning signs in the labor market data, and this is a labor market that looks precarious at best. that would get the fed to go faster. jonathan: this thursday, we may not know the outcome of the election. i hope by the middle of december we do. we should have a better idea of the policies by 2025. could that shape their decision? veronica: i don't think yet. in some sense we are expecting expansionary policies come things that would raise price levels, but i think that the fed will be reacting to what we are seeing in current economic data, what the current conditions are, not projecting a year from now. if you did see some kind of inflationary impact from fiscal policies, they will wait to see

that in the data before reacting. lisa: there is an interesting point underpinning the 50 basis point call, we will shift from who won the election how much will the fed cut rates again? this is the parlor game in markets. there is question about how strong the economy is. everyone around the table says it is in a great position for anyone who wins the election but you disagree. why? veronica: in some sense consumers are still spending and we've seen strong investment data, but it comes down to the labor market data. we had a report on friday that was weaker than expected and markets did not react at all. maybe there are temporary strike and hurricane issues in the payroll number, but there were things unrelated to those temporary factors that looked a lot weaker. we had the unemployment rate rising on an ungrounded basis. we saw the highest share of permanent job loss yet this cycle. without pretty big downward revisions to payrolls in previous months.

in august, private payrolls rose by 37,000 jobs. this labor market is slowing. labor demand is pulling back. people aren't quitting. people feel worse about their employment prospects and that is pretty concerning. lisa: at the same time, people say it is just frozen. people aren't getting laid off but also are not getting hired but they are not feeling terrible. saying people feel more loyal to their employers which happens when the labor market is doing better and people are not losing their jobs. when you think it will break to the layoff cycle? veronica: some consumer confidence has looked concerning. the conference board survey has come down substantially. i think the soft landing explanation for what we're seeing as we have very low hiring and quit rates and layoffs. we were coming from a couple of years of very tight labor markets of people moving jobs and maybe this is the natural pullback, but it looks like more than that to us. if you did just see people

pulling back on hiring you wouldn't expect current workers to be working less. hours worked have come down, there is more part-time employment. it looks like employers looking to cut labor costs to us. you haven't seen the big increase in layoffs yet, but that is the last, concerning step for the fed. annmarie: when you think that could happen? veronica: any time now. this is the usual tipping point of the cycles. it has been an important dynamic we have seen quit rates dropping substantially. i think for a lot of the last year or so, employers have been cutting labor costs by not replacing workers. suddenly, if people are not quitting and you don't have open positions to no fill, that could get you to layoff. we saw an increase in continuing jobless claims and half of that was related to states not impacted by hurricanes. it wasn't annmarie: annmarie: just temporary issues. elizabeth warren yesterday calling on the fed chair jay powell the cut by 50 basis

points. is that possible this week? veronica: this week, probably not. i think that of course the fed doesn't like to surprise us. we've had a little diversion's that in september. this week it is likely 25. in general, i do believe that the fed is not susceptible to political pressure. jonathan: i wonder why senator warren has chosen to do this again, election week? annmarie: she put outannmarie: a list every time she told the fed to do so. i think this is more about her and less about the election. she is only focused on thursday. jonathan: a final word on the independence of the federal reserve and how things might change with a trump win? never mind letters from senator warren, how different might things be? veronica: for the next year, powell is still fed chair. obviously president trump's first term, they had the debate of powell could be removed legally or not. we are assuming that powell will stay and finish out his term until early 2026.

i do in general believe that the fed is independent. jonathan: no open letters from the presidency telling jay what to do? annmarie: not letters but tweets. if you were to win again it would be truths, but that is the vibe. jonathan: 25 in december. let's cross over to dani burger. dani: hurricane season continues with tropical storm raffaella in the caribbean. it is the atlantic's 17th storm of the season according to the u.s. national hurricane center with top winds of 75 miles an hour. hurricane warnings and watches have been posted for the cayman islands and cuba. a tropical storm for the florida keys. employees of the new york times tech yield have gone on strike. the guild represent 600 software developers and back end specialists who oversee digital aspects at the times. employees claim that they gave

the time months of notice before going on strike but failed to reach an agreement on a contract. openai has begun pre-lim discussions with regulators to transform its nonprofit structure into a for-profit business. according to two people familiar with the matter, openai is an early talks with the california attorney general's office over the process of changing its corporate structure. becoming for-profit would make it more attractive to investors but could open the door to ethical questions on its original do-gooder public mission. jonathan: appreciate it. more from dani in 30 minutes. next, repricing election bets. >> if you get a trump victory, a bear steepener is pretty likely. under harris, it is more likely to be a bull steepening. jonathan: from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: live from a beautiful new york city this morning, good morning. guess what happens tomorrow morning? the sun rises again. and the morning after that, and the morning after that. is that good enough for you? annmarie: connecticut, new jersey, new york, the polls are open and you get to go with this beautiful sunrise. jonathan: equity futures firm or by a quarter of 1%. bond yields are higher by two or three basis points. the 10 year, 4.31. repricing election bets. >> you get a trump victory, the odds of a bear steepener, yields rising on the back end more than the front end is pretty likely. under a harris administration, it is more likely to be a bull steepening.

either way you aren't doing as well out the long end. on a trump victory initially there are some safe haven flows that would benefit the dollar, but only on a short-term basis. jonathan: the dollar is weaker as investors reprice bets on a second trump presidency. a trump clean sweep and a harris win without a clean sweep remain the two most likely outcomes in our view, and equally likely these are the most bullish and bearish outcomes for the dollar respectively. i've known you long enough to say, unhelpful. what are you telling people to do? >> it is a bit like the brexit story on if you will have a hard brexit or not and 2020 -- in 2020. you have to be careful. i think that we have to be conscious of the fact that at the moment what we are doing is

the treasury market sold off the dollar, the market rallied. we are giving back some of that. in terms of the places where the market has skewed in its pricing, i think if trump doesn't win, or if by some chance he didn't get a clean sweep, because that is very important as well, harris is like the australian dollar where they decided not to cut rates this morning and where it doesn't look like they're cutting rates this year. that looks like an undervalued currency on any scenario other than kind of the most aggressive trump ian win of the united states. maybe only modest chinese response to that. the australian dollar might be the outlier. if you said that the yen would follow and bond yields would go almost regardless, i think trump wins with a clean sweep it might be 160. harris wins without a clean

sweep, dollar-yen may be breaking towards 140. it's a massive gamble that is hard for people to cope with when they have to hold tight until we see if we will get a result tomorrow morning. annmarie: long-term, if it's in a trump win or clean sweep in scenario with congress going red, trump wants a weaker dollar. how would you be able to measure both of these basically conflicting results? kit: the dollar is strong because the united states has had exceptional fiscal policy. bond yields have been higher and the strength of the fiscal stance in the u.s. compared to everything we've got in europe has helped the economy outgrow the rest of the world spectacularly. trump wants more growth. he wants tariffs to get people into manufacturing jobs in the united states. he can't have that much cake and

eat it in terms of an economy that will be even stronger with fiscal policy continuing to be accommodative and have a weaker currency because in the end his biggest threat to trump will be inflation on what we've heard so far. he would have to change some of his policies if you wanted a weaker dollar. we will see how it plays out. you get the currency that your policies give you not the currency you wanted. annmarie: when you look at why the financial markets changed, was at the polling out of iowa or where they nervous they got over their skis when it comes to the trump trade? kit: if you look at the dollar index and you plotted it against the betting odds from real clear politics and how they were going in favor of trump, they moved closely together. the betting odds have moved back in line with the opinion polls in the last week, less than a week really. i will played a part in tha --

iweb played a part in that. -- iowa played a part in that. we look today is if we are closer to a market that genuinely doesn't know what's going to happen. maybe that's the right place for it to be. lisa: that raises the question of how violent could the reaction be in markets after we get some result given that everyone will be racing to it, no one had an edge. yesterday, he was talking about how he sees a clearing event after we get the results. the clearing event could last for a month. how violent of the clearing event could it be if we get a decisive response, result one way or another and the base case is what you laid out? kit: if you just track from the polls, harris entering the polls and trump coming back, and then where we are now, we are 107, 101 in the dollar index.

when you aren't sure, you get through those levels. that seems to me most likely outcome. if i look at dollar-you and in terms of the violence of the dollar-yen move, it depends on how much treasury yields can move. we had a big selloff on the long end of the treasury market on concerns about more accommodative fiscal policy, increased bond supply, and some inflation worries. if you had a scenario where those melt away, the treasury market is pretty bearish in terms of sentiment. a snapback rally there, what that could do with the yen is striking. we are not -- i don't think that we can avoid having a pretty violent reaction. history says that we sometimes overshoot and then come back and settle down and decide to have a look. putting in minor adjustments in the sense that whether someone has a clean sweep or not is very

important, how it looks. and then we will work out if either president can get what they want through congress irrespective of what that looks like. there will be a lot more questions, but i think that the initial reaction is likely to be pretty big, really, just because we are caught where we are. lisa: are you watching the election from mexico city? kit: i'm not watching the election from mexico city, no. that would be too exciting. you look at the impact on the yen, on the australian dollar, the mexican peso, all of latin america really, in fact, for once, europe is likely to be less affected, i think, then the rest of the world. that doesn't mean it doesn't have an impact here, but the big story is asia and latin america. jonathan: appreciate it.

the global capitals will be watching, beijing and mexico city. lisa: big time. mexico city if trump gets in unilaterally putting on tariffs. in beijing, they have their own question about how much stimulus the pump into the economy where they are holding a watch party overnight to understand what the parameters are that they will be working with. annmarie: they may need to extend that meeting because we may not know the results. kit made a point that even if you have a clean sweep you might not get everything you want. biden the first two years had the senate and the house and were still unable to close the carried interest loophole that they all promise they would do. jonathan: things are not straightforward in washington, d.c. from new york, good morning. ♪

>> the stakes are high this week for three reasons, the fed earnings and the election. >> harris would probably be less growth. >> you'll end up with volatility regardless of what happens. >> we are not going to know until the votes are finally counted. >> even when used congress and the president, you have to solve for a third issue. how much of what is being said will be implemented?

>> this is bloomberg surveillance with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, annmarie hordern. jonathan: it is i gearing up for a marathon, but you don't know how far you've got to run. it could be a day, it could be two, it could be a week. lisa: keep going. jonathan: it is election day in america. s&p up by .2%. the nasdaq 100, features elevated by one third of 1%. the bond market, yields a little higher across the curve on a two-year, 10 year, 30 year. 4.3070. in 2012 win -- when obama won it was near midnight. it took until saturday of the same week to find out biden won. how long will it take this time? lisa: if the polls are correct, a big if, this could be the closest race in history the problem is, everyone is saying

that it's implausible and statistically anomalous to see all of these polls that put these two candidates at a dead heat in all of the seven swing states. a lot of people are wondering, what are we getting wrong? annmarie: the harris campaign saying hunker down. they will get near complete results from georgia, michigan. partial results from pennsylvania and arizona. but ballots will be continue to be counted for many days. maricopa county officials are telling you there is no longer the days of waking up, going to your front stoop, getting a newspaper with the president elect on the front page. this is going to take days and everyone needs to take a deep breath. jonathan: it could be weeks. here is my deep breath. equity futures up by .2%. coming up sarah with markets on hold as americans go to the polls. of pangea policy calling for a

harris victory. we will catch up with the trump economic advisor on why the former president would not weaken the u.s. dollar. we begin with stocks and dollar holding steady as election day in america gets underway. trading taking a cautious approach with the outcome uncertain and possibly days away. we can see a path to a reasonably good into the year if there are no protracted political fights, but we also think caution going into 2025 is warranted. sarah, good morning. do you think there will be protracted political fights? sarah: i hope not, but it's difficult. if it is as close as the polls are showing, it probably will be. if it isn't and you see a surprise one way or the other, like the iowa surprise or another, where it is not as tight you won't get as much of a protracted fight, but we will have to see. i know that there is a lot of

optimism on the a reasonably good economy, reasonably good earnings, but we have this fiscal elephant in the room, literally. our deficits are widening no matter what we do and he was talking about it. does that mean that we end up with higher bond yields than we would have normally? does that mean make it some kind of a change there? that is something as the cost of the debt gets higher and because a bigger part of the budget ultimately has to be addressed, and no one is talking about it. lisa: and the bond market they say that has to be addressed and may be that is a 2027 story. that is why you have bond vigilantes coming to the fore. i wonder how much this creates a problem for the bond market not the stock market? that has been the theory. bonds are not a hedge to stocks as long as the economy is doing well. why go into equities for a stronger inflation economy?

sarah: if the stronger economy starts to get hindered by the fact that you have a spending problem. it is really about how does that translate through. at the moment that's not yet clear, but i think it's a concern. using the equity markets wobble every time the bond markets started to get wobbly. there is a correlation even though the correlations have not held up historically the way that they used to post the great financial crisis when we had 0% interest rates for so long. when people start getting nervous about one thing, it translates into other things. whether or not that nervousness is necessary or true it almost doesn't matter. lisa: this is counter consensus. julian emanuel was representing the view that markets continue on the path they have been on, up. if you believe this, how much are you de-risking ahead of the election given that you see things differently? sarah: it is more about making sure that what you have is something that you think is a really good place to be.where

you are is a good place to be for the next couple of years. that tends to be more thematic, better balance sheets, better quality. a lot of things that don't work as well when there is a lot of enthusiasm in markets because a lot of the less quality stuff moves higher when people get very excited. to the extent that what you want to see is a country that is able to sustain itself and any economic environment is the direction we are looking in, rather than to be worried that there will be a major change. on the edges there's likely to be more volatility. where multiples are, it's hard to say why they should continue to go to the sky. annmarie: the rising debt load, mohamed el-erian quotes jfk. in times of sunshine it is time to fix the roof, not to be digging new holes. which campaign will potentially dig bigger holes? sarah: they both promised to dig bigger holes.

if you're in a hole stop digging. we are in a growth economy and seeing growing deficits is not a good sign. if you get into a real economic slowdown, the push to have fiscal policy help becomes more difficult when you have deficits that are high. there has been a lot of discussion about, why worry it hasn't been a problem yet? i don't know where the line is, but at some point it becomes a problem. annmarie: intentionally finding that lying next year. you have all of these fiscal questions, the trump era tax cuts ending, that there will be another protracted debt ceiling fight, could 2025 b when the bond market pushes back and -- bond market pushes back and they are correct? sarah: it will happen at some point. everything that we thought would have been in a timely manner got

pushed. i would've thought inflation was coming when we started the experiment in 2008-2009 of having zero interest rates forever and throwing money at every problem, but it took years to catch up because there was a pandemic that messed up the supply chain.we think about relationships from a historical standpoint haven't held over the last 15 years, so it's hard to parse how they will hold going forward. the port strike got pushed out into the future, too. there are number of things that could come up in 2025. you have a great year in 2024. whatever is happening on the political front, everyone has a little enthusiasm. 2020 five, people look at their outlooks and say there are things we could be concerned about. i'm not looking for some giant problem, i'm just saying that we've had a great couple of years in the market, and now we are looking at high multiples and real uncertainty. jonathan: we have said it a million times on this program, truly flying blind into 2025. tax cuts expiring this year

which is why the makeup of the senate is that much more important. lisa: especially given the fact that a lot of people expect those continue. if they don't how much does that matter for the equity market more than the bond market as spending will expand our the weight? there are intricacies that will be the difference between incremental moves we say. later tonight, which you will be tracking all night long. annmarie: when it comes to tax cuts, do you see either candidate wanting to raise taxes on individuals making less than $400,000? no. then the corporate tax rate. the gap is so wide. 28% on one side and as low as 15% on the others with conditions that no one has been transparent about. jonathan: we'll try to get clarity on that point. sarah, it is good to catch up. equity futures on the s&p up by .2%. with an update on stories elsewhere, here is dani burger.

dani: despite rising debt, aramco is keeping its $31 billion dividend. the company majority owned by the saudi state is paying out more than it is earning. the ambitious economics transformation plans have light in the deficit pushing aramco into a net debt position for the first time in two years. the outlook for oil has darkened with concerns over demand. the dividend is seen for key for government for the finances. shares of nintendo are dropping lower by nearly 4% in the japanese trade. the giant slashed the outlook for a fifth straight quarter of declining profits. demand is lagging for the switch consoles. rather than upgrading, they have shifted to other projects, including a museum, smartphone apps, and hollywood films. the kansas city chiefs' perfect season continues after beating the bucks in overtime.

the qb patrick mahomes had to be helped to his feet after injuring his left ankle, but he was able to put the chiefs ahead. he orchestrated over time capped off by touchdown runs the seal the deal for kansas city. they look to secure the first threepete in super bowl history. jonathan: closing arguments. fmr. pres. trump: the ball is in our head all we have to do is get out the vote tomorrow. v.p. harris: if you give me a chance to fight on your behalf, as president, there is nothing in the world that will stand in my way. jonathan: that conversation is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: equity futures on the

s&p 500 are up by .2%. bond market yields are aggressively lower. under surveillance this morning, closing arguments. fmr. pres. trump: the ball is in our hands. all we have to do is get out the vote tomorrow. if you get out the vote they can't do anything about it, we win. we are the party of common sense. v.p. harris: if you give me a chance to fight on your behalf as president, there is nothing in the world that will stand in my way. i will spend every day on your behalf working on my to do list. jonathan: harris and trump to living their final campaign rallies in the battleground states of pennsylvania and michigan. almost four dollars out of every five dollars has gone to key swing states with an astonishing $1.2 billion being spent on pennsylvania alone, marking the first time that a single state has seen more than $1 billion in

ads. david gura joins us from philadelphia and romaine bostick from detroit. how overwhelming has it been to be on the other end of these ad campaigns that we have seen buildup over the last few months? david: i spent several hours talking to people and each one said that they had been inundated with advertisements and outreach. the fatigue is real. they understand the gravity and importance of the election, but they recognize that they have been targeted by a lot of money, ads, and outreach, and they are ready for the election to be over with. i spent last night on the promenade on ben franklin parkway in philadelphia where kamala harris had her final rally and made her final argument. it was a version of the stump speech that she has given for many weeks that is heavy on optimism, didn't mention her opponent by name, and imploring those in the audience to do a couple of things. one, vote themselves.

two, have conversation with friends and loved ones about their plans to vote. they have been open for 15 minutes and will be open until 8:00 tonight. they are aware of how much money has been targeting them and how critical this state is for both political parties. the 19 electoral college votes. the democrat is fighting for a fourth term in the u.s. senate, asking for the democrats gathered for their vote. david mccormick campaigned in the state who is running against him, the republican who spent time as the chief executive of bridgewater. a couple of contrasts in the speech, yes, the lightness and optimism from kamala harris versus the dark rhetoric from donald trump as he campaigned in pennsylvania, north carolina, grand rapids, michigan where he closed things off last night at 2:00 a.m. when he finished his last speech and made his way to florida. also, the generational divide

that we saw on display, an emphasis in philadelphia as we listen to kamala harris about how this is a big town and she wants all people to be part of it. the last thing that i will say to all of you is, a lot of reflection on how much this campaign has done in a short time. it has been about three months since the incumbent president decided he won't seek reelection. kamala harris, new melissa surrogates last night acknowledging -- numerous surrogates last night acknowledging that the amount of momentum, the amount of work that they had to do to introduce this vice president to wider electorate was a monumental task and they are feeling pretty good about it and cautiously optimistic from a lot of party officials. the polls are open and people are returning their mail-in ballots in the usps or the voting stations in time going up to election day.

the emphasis is that the finish line is in sight, but they have to run through it. annmarie: it has been an unprecedented election cycle. there has been criticism about the incumbent administration when it comes to their handling of the war on gaza. ranki -- rank and file upset about electric vehicles made in detroit. what are you hearing from individuals in michigan? romaine: foreign policy. believe it or not. not the economy, reproductive rights, or immigration. where i am in northwest detroit, it is about tariffs and manufacturing jobs. manufacturing jobs lost. west of me to the arab-american enclaves, these are communities who have voted by a wide margin for the democratic party for the last 30 to 40 years. that isn't likely to happen in 2024. a major rift with regard to the

biden harris administration's handling of the war in gaza. a protest vote. it isn't going to donald trump. kamala harris polling at less than 20%. donald trump only polling at 30%. the lion's share of the vote will go to jill stein, a sign of protest amongst a lot of people who want to send a message to both candidates. polling center behind me in northwest detroit, a working-class neighborhood, open 15 minutes ago and i had a chance to catch up with officials late last night who are expecting a pretty orderly process here compared to 2020 with the pandemic-induced constraints of the election. all of the absentee ballots that came in late in the day, they aren't expecting that this time. as of last night, more than 47% of folks and michigan already cast their ballots either through absentee ballots or

early voting. lisa: i'm curious about whether the view is that jill stein could take away a sizable portion of votes that would otherwise go to kamala harris? is that what you're are hearing from campaign officials? romaine: i am actually hearing the opposite. that a lot of the votes probably would have gone to trump. when i say that foreign policy is a big issue, it isn't only what's going on with regards to the situation in gaza. michigan is home to 600,000 polish americans, one of the biggest concentrations in the country, and they are voting on a big single issue, the war in ukraine and what they see as vladimir putin's broadening power. i spoke with the head of the polish american association here and she said that the vote is probably split as the arab americans. a jewish population is voting on the issue of israel as well. those three communities here could be the determine if harris or trump wins the presidency in michigan.

jonathan: world-class reporting from the bloomberg team. gentlemen, thank you. terry keynes joins us for more. you said that harris has the edge, 70% likely we get a split government with democrats in the house and republicans in the senate. small majorities. you have been consistent. what underpins that for you? terry: the consistency comes from the fact that the polls have been static. it's not a lot more than that. my harris call is frankly based on you have a tight race and you have to look at the intangibles. the harris organization, voter enthusiasm, message discipline combining social issues focused with trump loathing barely beats a trump campaign that has a demonstrated hard voter ceiling, focusing on a tiny sliver of swing state voters. there is a 20% republican party that doesn't want donald trump

and are susceptible to moving over. there is a lack of a of the the trump campaign to centrists or undecided. those things combined give a small nod to harris. annmarie: what did you make of the iowa poll? is this what you have been trying to explain? that the polling is underestimating some potentially shy harris voters? terry: i think that ann selzer is a unicorn that always needs to be taken seriously. she was the first to say that she thought it was a shock poll and seems to be an outlier. that doesn't make it less true. the undercard is interesting. four house seats in iowa, all republican. selzer has two lost to democrats and the third within two points. ann shows in the poll the same thing that has been shown all

year. women are hugely concerned about social issues, number one. number two, you have a hard trout ceiling and loathing going on. ann had in january that there were 40% of republican primary voters who said that they weren't going to vote for trump in the general, and that was the first piece of evidence to me that led to republican party split that i think has been clearly demonstrated. annmarie: when the polls close, in pennsylvania i was looking at bucks county and erie county, but washington county is your bellwether. why? terry: washington county has it all. washington county in the pittsburg region has the highesth house prices in the pittsburgh region in an area that hugs allegheny township. but you literally cross a creek from peters township into nottingham township to a town called finley bill and the house

prices dropped by half or more, as does the income. it gets poorer and poorer the further south that you move. if you want to see if the independents, women, they are pretty well-off come out in droves for hairs, that is the place to look. if you want to see if trump can goose a lot of people that normally don't vote and bring them to the polls to cancel out the people in the northern half of the county, you will see it there. you will see the race in pennsylvania play out in washington county based on which is stronger. lisa: early voting, and the fact that half of the people who voted in the previous election have voted so far going into this election day that really is election season. how does that change the nature of how we get results trickling out? terry: it depends on the state.

in pennsylvania, they don't start counting until election day itself. that is a large factor in the stringing out of the election results that you were talking about before. largely, it depends on the state. beware anyone trying to read into this because there is a party registration shift in pennsylvania towards republican as much as anything else. that doesn't mean that those people are voting for one candidate or the other. you have a situation where just because there is registration advantages in one place or another, there are protest votes and special issues and all kinds of things. jonathan: we will see you later this evening. the big take away from the conversation that we just had, romaine bostick, detroit, michigan, it is about foreign policy. lisa: each individual group and how that is changing their vote, who to vote for, whether to show

up, and how these people have been catered to in $700 million of advertising. annmarie: in 2016 hillary clinton lost michigan by 10,704 votes. if all of those for jill stein would have gone for hillary clinton, she would have won the state. jonathan: superthin, razor thin margins. investors will brace for election volatility. bond yields a little bit higher. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: good morning. welcome to the program. equity futures uptwo hours awayg bell with your morning movers, here's manus cranny. >> a little sigh of relief as 59% of the workers have agreed to a pay deal. so this closes off a 53 day strike. this company is making four claims a month, that is one a week at the moment, so this is all about getting started up again.

trying to get back to the low 20's. earlier talking about the pullback from boeing is what is restraining is growth numbers. 38 is the magic number on the 737. that is the maximum they can produce but this company is still going to lose money this year and the first half of next. by the way, those workers go from 76,000 119000 and the deal is going to cost boeing about $1 billion to $2 billion. this is, in their words, unwavering demand for ai. this is a huge government contract supplier delivering ai. defense spending is the highest in four years. government contract growth up 40% in the third quarter. and of course included in the s&p. everything to do with government defense and any other company. marriott might have a problem with the election in terms of

people booking rooms or when it comes to big betting in las vegas i think this is a manifestation of china, the stimulus, the amount of underperformance relative to the rest of the market. earnings disappointed on sales. down from $.99 one year ago and below the estimate. you've got a little bit of pressure. it is a different political story relative. jonathan: stimulus resorts and other stocks like that. lisa: is this just an excuse or other actually some people who are delaying their travels? might be a little bit of both. it is not a big holiday time. if you travel, what do you tell your clients right now? are you going to do fundraising, because what project are you going to have absolute conviction about anything can tell your incredible analysis about who's going to win, we don't know. jonathan: the cfo over a

marriott international, declining in november by double that of past election cycles. is it just the election or is it something else? lisa: we will find out weeks and months to come. this is one from the ceo of snap-on. welcome to the mad hatter's tea party. nobody knows what is actually going to happen so you can even make a pronouncement. this from etsy. nonstop political boys is incredibly distracting mind share event and even homebuilder d.r. horton talking about how do you have conviction dip in some sort of big purchase if you don't know the path of the interest rates, nevertheless the backdrop for taxes and other big policy aspects. jonathan: a role of the dice if you want to lock in on interest rates right now. the u.s. presidential race on a knife sage as americans had to the polls today. voters across seven swing states likely to decide the election outcome. harris and trump delivering

their closing arguments in dueling rallies last night in pennsylvania and michigan. >> i keep coming back to the fact that these election officials in arizona are saying it could be 10 to 13 days relatively quickly, at least overnight, you know what direction of policy travel was going to be going in washington, d.c. 2020 wasn't like that because of all these mail-in ballots. this year more than 80 million people have already voted to this election day is off to a pretty good start. you talk to either campaign, they would keep telling you it is all about turnout. jonathan: we always say you can learn something from the information you receive and something else to have a market response to that information. sometimes you don't find out how the market is going to receive any particular makeup of government until the night, the day after, the week and month after >> that's what, everyone in specter the market to tank and did the opposite.

this time around unclear, but people think more of a trump victory is baked into markets. jonathan: apple is exploring a push into smart glasses. the company kicked off an internal study of products currently on the market and research set to guide the company and what interested its own glasses as meta makes a big effort here. lisa: but meta's are a leading the more expensive for the price point. i can just imagine my conversation with my kids later on become the thing. if i'm speaking to you take off your glasses. how distracted are people going to be. i've been looking at you are either reading a text. i'm trying to envision this world and exactly how people exist in it. annmarie: those meta ray-ban glasses have now hit the oprah winfrey favorite things holiday gift guide. she says she's going to be giving them to people, she loves how you can wear them traveling it can translate and menu from a foreign language into english, take pictures as were walking three new city.

i feel like apple is now catching up to potentially what meta has been seeing. this is going to be one of the most transformational pieces of tech. jonathan: he was moved by it. annmarie: and so was oprah. jonathan: apparently. new york times tech workers going on strike. 600 software developers and others have run the backend system behind digital operations, walking out just before election day. the two sides negotiated until sunday and failed to come to an agreement. talk about hybrid. -- timing. lisa: that is the comment from some of the executives of new york times. really, guys? of course the tech workers say you've worked incredibly hard to try to lay the groundwork that there will not be any disruptions. the key issue is this comes at one of the highest volume times when everyone is pressing refresh.

jonathan: traders counting down to the u.s. election and bracing for big swings on a razor thin margins. price action has been choppy in recent days as investors look to manage positions before the elections. after elections, markets tend to focus on the prevailing fundamentals with the exception being in a sweet outcome. cassie, good morning. why would the sweep change things so much for you? >> essentially there's a number of different things that we can focus on. there's the four key outcomes. you have divided government with harris or trump, and then you have the sweep outcomes. the sweep outcomes are where the market is going to be focused on a real shift in the physical trajectory that causes the fed, that causes the market staff to consider that the current path for the economy may be altered. that is really the scenarios where i think that there is still a lot of uncertainty around how that path is going to be altered.

in a divided government i do think that we are going back to more of a status quo, where we can refocus on the fundamentals which is the way that we've can position all along. that is growth that is healthy, jobs that are slowing, wages that are moderating, inflation under control. the expansion continues. lisa: take us inside your emergency playbook as you watch the election results come in. if you get divided government and signs of that, by bonds? if you get some sort of sweet, it is less clear, maybe sell, maybe don't have conviction. what are the traits you are looking for? >> it's probably too simplistic to put it like that. you have four outcomes that are the key outcomes, but talking to our colleagues in market insights, david kelly, there playbook has 10 different potential scenarios. within four, there's all of this gray area that we need to manage.

and i think the key is with all this uncertainty is really not to get distracted and use this as an excuse to stay in cash. our motto has been follow the alphabet, the abcs. anything but cash. don't use this noise as an excuse to distract you from the opportunities that are out there. within the financial markets and particularly within fixed income. we had a remarkable trend of strong growth, real final sales has been rocksolid around percent. companies are doing well and you can still build portfolios of bonds that yield 6%-8% right now that we think are very well positioned for a variety of outcomes. lisa: tonight cash is actually a greatly helpful because what people are looking for his potential dislocations in the market that they can take advantage of. how much are you looking to take advantage of specific dislocations, what are they that

you are looking to go ahead and buy? >> we don't have any specific edge. i don't think anyone has any specific edge over these outcomes, but what we do have is setting ourselves up for flexibility to take advantage of anything that does become dislocated, particularly in the rate space, in the fx space. we have been looking at swap spent -- spreads which have become very negative. that is a potential trade that has been focused on by hedge funds that are looking at the deficit moves. these are all things that we are looking at, and when i take it back to where should the 10 year yield be in a status quo scenario, one where we refocus on the fundamentals following the elections, based on the growth factor out, based on one that inflation is pretty close to two, growth is healthy but it is slowing, the fed is cutting, i would say that is a 10 year yield around 3.5 to four.

why are we not there now? i think it is pretty clear there's a decent amount in the market. annmarie: where is the 10 year yield if trump wins? >> i think you could see a knee-jerk reaction that brings the 10 year yield significantly higher. but it also depends not just what happens with the presidency, but all of those gray areas. not just the four scenarios, but the 10 different scenarios. we also don't know what he's going to focus on in his first few days in office. he started that many different policy, but are they going to be the things that are growth positive or are they going to be the things that are more focused on foreign policy and inflation, which of the tariffs raise prices but they are also dampening on growth. we need to understand what water of priorities either candidate

is ultimately going to take if they win. >> what is the knee-jerk reaction for harris? is it as low as what you think a 10 year should be trading at 3.5%? >> i think that you do see some trades that have already been put into the market that suggest that if we were to see a harris win, you could see yields move a bit lower. but again, it really depends. to us, one of the most important thing is that we were watching last week is a jobs report. a lot of uncertainty about if the labor market was actually accelerating here, and we were under the belief that the labor market actually is still cooling. this number in september is an outlier. what i've been doing, and i look at the labor market data i just look at everything through september. if you include october, you are

creating an opportunity where you are likely to get whipsawed. but if you look through september i think it is pretty clear. labor market is still slowing, inflation is still cooling, wages are still moderating. that is generally an environment that is fairly good for fixed income. jonathan: this might be a short news conference on thursday, don't you think? open it up, read the decision, close the book. lisa: we cut by 25 basis points, nobody cares. annmarie: or every political question is going to be no comment. good to see you, good to catch up as always. let's get you an update on stories elsewhere this morning with your bloomberg brief. >> growth at taco bell failed to offset ongoing weakness at pizza hut and kfc. overall comparable sales declined 2%. kfc for park posted a third straight quarterly decline.

taco bell saw comparable sales rise 4%. restaurant brands, the owner of burger king and popeyes also missed sales expectations. wells fargo is set to begin the first ever contract negotiations between a big u.s. bank in unionized employees. albuquerque new mexico, the location unite last december making it the first branch of in u.s. bank to do so. 22 wells fargo branches have joined the vote to unionize. the cleveland cavaliers are the last undefeated team in the eastern conference after they beat the conference milwaukee bucks last night. darius carlin had 39 points with 73-pointers along with eight assists for the calves. they currently hold a one-game lead over the defending champs, the boston celtics and in the western conference, improved to 7-0 after a dominant win over zalando magic. and that is your brief. jonathan: see you in about 30 minutes. up next, the final word. >> for years is, have delivered

nothing but economic hell for the american workers, autoworkers. the inflation disaster has made life unaffordable. jonathan: the view from the trump campaign and 30 minutes later we would catch up with mark cuban for the view from the harris campaign. ♪

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♪ jonathan: equity futures up 1/10 of 1%. the 10 year, 4.32. under surveillance, the final word. >> for years of kamala have delivered nothing but economic hell for the american workers and the autoworkers, all workers. her inflation disaster has made life unaffordable. it cost families over $30,000 in higher prices. we are going to get the prices

down, and we will. we will launch the most extraordinary economic boom the world has ever seen. jonathan: trump closing his campaign promises for a better economy. a top economic adviser to the former president telling the financial times if trump wins the election he won't weaken the dollar. also defending his pledges on tariffs saying at the end of the day, he is a free trader. he is escalate to de-escalate. scott cohn welcome to the program. first of all thank you for being with us because i know that rally wrapped up about 2:00 a.m. eastern time so you've only just landed in florida. here's my question for you and for mark cuban this morning when we catch up within a little bit later. if you are an undecided voter waking up and going to the polls and you still just can't get there, harris or trump, what is your message to them? >> it's quite easy to get the choices are quite stark. we have a very unusual situation here because we had a real-time experiment.

we had a trump that delivered low inflation, high real wage growth and good economic growth, especially for working americans. we also have an experiment with vice president harris and joe biden where we had the highest inflation in 40 years, the bottom 50% of workers are getting crushed. inflation, interest rates and immigration. and if you want more of that, then you should vote for it. but it's a very unusual situation where both candidates have run policy. annmarie: when trump left the white house unemployment was at 6.4%. today, 4.1%.

this is very low unemployment. >> that was covid. and you know it. why don't we stop the clock at january 2020 and go from there. it was one of the strongest economies ever. annmarie: let's talk about some of the president's policies. you say he's not going to weaken the dollar but he gave an interview with bloomberg business rate and said the strong dollar is a problem. why do you think you won't try to weaken it? >> it's a market reaction and i also think he understands that tariffs have, tariffs cause a stronger dollar. it's an economic abnormality. i think we could see what is called the dollar smile, which

you start out with high interest rates, high deficit, and if you are still above target, if you were to get inflation down to or below target for deregulation through energy, then interest rates could come down and you would have a market-based dollar depreciation. but in terms of a weaker dollar policy, i wouldn't expect that at all. and the other thing, if we go back to what is the pitch, i'm very interested to hear mark cuban say this because what i find very odd with the harris supporters, especially the wall street and billionaire class like mark cuban, the wink and the nod is she's got these crazy policies but the republicans are going to have the senate, so you

don't have to worry about these policies going through. it half of the harris supporters are saying the reason to vote for her is because there will be a republican senate, that is quite odd. 100% of the people who are voting for donald trump today want a republican trifecta. they want him to be able to implement those policies. that's going to be a very interesting conversation. i look forward to watching it. annmarie: the trump campaign since kamala harris stole some of his key proposals. so did they steal them, or are her proposals actually a little bit too crazy? >> i can tell you that the tax on unrealized capital gains, i've been doing this for 35 years and have done business in over 60 countries, and that is the worst idea that i've ever seen. it is a death spiral for markets, for capital. and when david merk decided in the presidential debate on

president trump, he said kamala harris isn't the communist because a communist seizes the means of production, taxing unrealized capital gains is seizing the means of production. she's walked back a lot of things, and this is not one of the things she's walked back. lisa: you raise a lot of points here and i think that one really interesting point is that one of the argument that people make about kamala harris' policies is a lot of them won't go into effect. you could say the same thing about donald trump's policies. a lot of the crazy ideas with the tariffs or potentially that can be destructive to growth will go into effect and as soon as he sees the stock market tank is going to reverse course. is that true? >> but again, that would be donald trump's decision. it would not be because he didn't want to. with kamala harris it would be just because she's unable to do it. let's look what she did when the

democrats had the trifecta. she with the tie-breaking vote on the orwellian named inflation reduction act, and the american rescue plan. $4 trillion of spending that set off the biggest inflation in 40 years. so if you want her to have the trifecta, have at it again. lisa: but a lot of people come around this table who are analysts in the financial markets saying that a red suite with president trump would cause inflation to go up, would cause bond yields to go up, the most bearish situation for bonds. are you disagreeing with that? that would be considered more inflationary than anything kamala harris could do. >> i think it's absurd to say that donald trump would be inflationary. bond yields go up, they would be going up because there is a growth impetus in the market that would price in higher growth trajectory. in my mind it will not be

because inflation will be going up. jonathan: scott, good to hear from you. if you can stay awake for 30 minutes to watch the mark cuban interview, we look forward to your feedback. looking forward to tonight. coming up in the next hour, we will hear from mark cuban, a harris donor and minority owner of the dallas mavericks. that conversation in about 30 minutes. annmarie: it will be interesting to see what mark cuban has to say because he has been out and about supporting her every single day. he's almost like the elon musk because he is a donor, because he is a billionaire except he is a little bit less jumping on stage. jonathan: where is his? that's what i want to know. lisa: why are you getting $1 million for people to sign-up for the right to vote? annmarie: is that what that is, is it a lottery or a job? jonathan: we still don't know. the judge has decided it is one and not the other, so there you go. dallas mavericks minority owner mark cuban and our team covering

the trump and harris campaigns. the third hour of "bloomberg serveillance" up next. ♪

♪ >> there is a very bearish set of the investors going into the

election day. >> as the presidential race goes probably the senate races go. >> the polls are razor thin in these states that matter and the communities that matter. >> there's a very big difference between wood voters in the swing states feel are important issues. >> there's a lot of conflicting signals, most of which are showing this to be a tyler tossup race. announcer: this is "bloomberg serveillance" with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz and annmarie hordern. jonathan: 90 minutes away from the opening bell. across the equity board, elevated just a touch on s&p 500, futures up by two cans of 1%. the nasdaq 100 up by one third. on the bond market, they start the week for fixed income, the rally for this moniker. yields up by three basis points to 4.19. mike wilson in morgan stanley on this program yesterday said that this would be a market clearing event that we would get up to six k on the s&p 500.

lisa: it depends on what the outcome is. it seems like the bar is high or low depending on how you talk to . ultimately it doesn't come into who is at the top of the ticket and i feel like i am basically parroting everything that you about to say. it really has to do with the composition of congress and basically, the details that we have to parse throughout the night. annmarie: the composition of congress is really important for things like tax cuts to make sure that we don't go through the debt ceiling which is going to be a fight starting january 1, 2025. when it comes to tariffs, that is where the executive branch can act alone. not on everything because there is some legal precedent about how big the wall could potentially go up. they would need congress backing it, but that is the one area where if trump wins, he can do that unilaterally on day one. jonathan: that is why there are tariff trades and there are basically bond market trades.

tax cut trades. higher yields. think about what this could mean for the federal reserve. there's a lot on the table the next 12 months. >> especially a time where either candidate is going to expand the deficit. you look at some of the nonpartisan projections with the base case for donald trump raising the fiscal deficit over the next four years to $7.7 trillion. harris is only $3.7 trillion. nonetheless you are talking about a much deeper deficit at a time where there is no attention spend right now in terms of how you offset this and create a more fiscal and plausible future. annmarie: i go back to what mohamed el-erian wrote in the financial times this morning. these election promises do not mean there going to be policy. look at the tax cut that this election cycle has introduced. no tax on tips. everyone seems to agree on that. social security exemption. all those tax cuts. $5,000 tax credit.

consider limiting tax incomes for first responders. increase corporate tax rate. increased capital gains tax. $25,000 if you're buying a new home. is any of this really jonathan: going to happen? jonathan:i think we are all exhausted by all of this. assassination attempt, a last-minute candidate change. we are all trying to get our hands around fresh policy coming from harris is trying to redefine herself away from the prison we knew in 2019. and once you get through all of that can you imagine being in pennsylvania and you face down $1.2 million in ads spent from these two campaigns over the last few months? those numbers are incredible. lisa: which means that people are really sick of hearing them but they also feel a little bit more political urgency down there. what i thought was interesting at the corollary, then knock on effects. one 800 flowers came out and said media is more expensive. the election does have a big impact on what we pay for things both digitally and in

traditional media. you can't advertise because how can you go up against that incredible wash of money? jonathan: do you think that is why mary are seeing hotel spending coming down? annmarie: because they are not able to advertise in pennsylvania and michigan. jonathan: coming up this hour, cameron dawson on the election bogeyman but it could spook markets. and we will catch up with dallas mavericks minority owner mark cuban making the case for kamala harris. to begin with stocks on hold in the last day of voting in america. given how tight polls are, we see the election as a source of near-term volatility regardless of the result. each site has bogeyman that could spook markets. cameron joins us now to talk about those. who are those men? >> those men certainly are things like higher deficits, higher corporate taxes, tariffs and immigration and i think annmarie's point was really important. if we think on the tariff line of things, doesn't necessarily

matter about the makeup of congress, that we could see them if trump is elected which is certainly some of the questions that you'd seen raised by the bond market and considering potentially stickier inflation. so we think regardless of who wins tonight or whenever we get those results, it effectively is going to be a surprise, because those are so very tight, which means that it could be a volatility inducing event. i think it is important to note that markets aren't necessarily primed for volatility to continue. you seen a huge buying of put options, effectively people betting on volatility collapsing. so again, this could simply be a surprise and it could cause this higher volatility given the fact that people are necessarily position for it. lisa: you see this across a range of different volatility metrics. people expect all of the -- volatility price speaking to swing tomorrow and fade off as we get results and go back to some sort of status quo. from your vantage point, how

much are you looking to actually take advantage of something that could be more significant? how offsides with this market be and what would you do with that? >> we always try to see volatility as opportunity and i raise the question of if we would be seeing this volatility even if this wasn't election day. if you look at things like s&p 500 momentum and breath, they've all been deteriorating over the last month. you've also seen a deterioration in forward earnings estimates. you see estimates for q4 as well as 2025 get cut and trimmed, so i would raise the question of if we could have this volatility, even if this was not election day, simply because you had a lot of digestion of those strong gains that we had year-to-date, and kind of putting some of the seasonality aside, given that deterioration, that just sets you up for a little bit more. >> at this point i have to understand and i don't understand exactly how much we've already priced in some of

these trades, but these trades actually are. people have been wondering, you strip out the political influence, what if the 10 year yield look like? do you have a sense of that? >> weather correlation and causation is up for debate over the last three months or so, that certainly broke down at the end of last week where trump started to fall and use of the 10-year treasury yield moving higher. we think the source of that 10-year treasury yield moving higher really comes down to the bond market digesting the fact that you have a relatively resilient economy that is supported by higher deficit spending. at the same time, you have a fed that is talking about potentially hundreds of basis point of cuts to get to their idea of neutral, which could have the potential of effectively throwing lighter fluid on some of this tightness within the economy, the fact that you still have overall easy financial conditions as well,

and that seems to be the reason why you are seeing these bond yields move higher, not necessarily just the election. jonathan: then why is it important, because a dictate how to trade equities at some extent at least. would you say yields have been rising for good reasons and not bad, and is it a reason to stay longer, equity markets? >> i think the answer to that is in high yield spreads. if yields were rising for bad reasons -- bad reasons that the fed was tightening policy, you would see high yield spreads widening out. but they continue to remain very contained and actually making new year-to-date lows, which says to us this is not a market that is necessarily inferior growth. it is not priced for a growth slowdown. you can see that at the risk going into 2025 if you start to see deterioration in economic fundamentals, when effectively the credit market is telling you that yields are rising because growth is resilient. so watch those high yield spreads very closely.

jonathan: when you expected to remain that way even if we got a sweep for the gop in the next 24 hours? >> i don't necessarily know if any of the policies enacted by a gop suite would affect growth in 2025. let's put tariffs and potentially immigration aside because that is certainly something we could see without a gop sweep, but the risk for a gop sweep really is something contemplated later would be will be negotiating those $4 trillion of tax cuts, potential he adding a lot to the deficit, which is certainly something that the bond markets might push back on. that is not necessarily something that we deal with in the next couple of months. lisa: a couple months ago people on the show talked a lot about how this could be a transformative event that could mark the difference in an economic cycle with respect to inflation, respect to growth. as we've gotten closer to the event, people have revised that view, and whatever the result,

things will keep on going on the way they have before. where do you follow that? >> the best news is that if you look historically, the s&p 500 regardless of the power balance within d.c. has been able to do what it does despite or in spite of what goes on in d.c., and that's really good news. which just means that overall corporate earnings have been able to operate in times regardless of uncertainty and pressures of what is going on within policy and it is something we always try to remind clients of so they don't respond to emotionally to what is, for many people a very emotional election day. annmarie: we know that markets like certainty. what if it is a contested election, what is going to be the impact? >> certainly that would potentially be a source of volatility. not necessarily volatility that would last for a long time, so it gets back to jonathan's first question which is if you see

volatility, is it viable? we think the answer is yes, these interior rations and breath can momentum that could be happening regardless of the election, you get a narrative of uncertainty behind it, then you set up for effectively a great buying opportunity into year-end with potential santa claus rally and year-end chase. a source of volatility, not necessarily a source of investment decision. jonathan: thank you. cameron dawson of new age wealth. if you are just doing this, bond yields higher at the moment. lisa: basically nobody knows anything. maybe this tracks, the protected odds were some of the other production market odds that do show trump once again getting a slight edge. other people say these markets are completely skewed and don't listen to them at all. i do think it's important to take notice of that option yesterday. it was a messy one.

supply is going to be harder to digest in a time of critical uncertainty. jonathan: what is that spider-man mean where they are all looking at each other and doing that? lisa: i know but i don't really know. jonathan: let's get you an update on the stories elsewhere with your bloomberg green. -- bloomberg brief. >> boeing employees bring an end to a crippling seven-week strike. nearly 60% of workers voted in favor of the new deal that will see wages increased by 30% over four years and enhance retirement contributions. hourly workers start returned back reasons, states soon as wednesday. that breaker marks a big win for the new ceo as he aims to rebuild the company culture and improve the quality of work in factories. goldman sachs flat the most executives to its partnership program in the era of david solomon. the promotions will be announced this week and people familiar tell it they will exceed the prior hiring of 80 people in 2022. it is a big shift for the chief

executive who had preferred a smaller partner class to reinforce the aspirational nature. this time goldman had to but replenish a pool of partners who left and is enjoying a spell of performance radel. monday evening, joe rogan announced his endorsement for former president trump. in a post, the "great and powerful elon musk" saying he made the most compelling case for trump you will ever hear. the endorsement could offer it with to the trump campaign given his popularity among young men, a key voter demographic for the candidate. and that is your brief. jonathan:jonathan: when we look back at everything, i do wonder if we will look back at that as a bigness opportunity for kamala harris to sit down with joe rogan. annmarie: she had to go to his studio which is part of the problem and there election scheduling but you chose to go on s&l. if you are watching s&l which is definitely more old-school, less new age, you're probably voting for her. joe rogan would've put her in

front of 15 million men. and this is a source that she needed to shore up. jonathan: will we be talking about this tomorrow morning or not? we go to the critical swing states in georgia and north carolina. that is all around the corner. this is bloomberg.

♪ >> the opening bell, one hour 30 minutes away. equity futures up by a tens of 1%. yields higher by four or five basis points. let's get you some morning calls. first up, raising its price target 57, highlighting its robust quarter and accelerated deal momentum. the second call from bernstein upgrading ebay to outperform saying the recent share offers a better entry point.

that stock is up by 1.5%. and finally jp morgan raising its price target on dollar tree to 82, emphasizing its commitment to a formal review of strategic alternatives for family dollar. stock is up by 4%. this turned back to the election. we got team coverage in atlanta georgia and raleigh, north carolina. this get to you first. can you walk us through how well things are turning out in north carolina in terms of asset and how the hurricane hit the western part of the state only a month or so ago? >> we've actually seen remarkable turnout in those western states we are devastated by hurricane helene the 25 counties that were impacted, only three had turnout rates in early voting that were below the state average. across the state we see republicans and democrats taking a really different strategy. republicans have focused much more on community, on their grassroots activists saying that they have more trust from their friends and family to get out

and convince them to both his son. democrats have a really impressive army volunteers here. they say they have 45,000 people sign up to volunteer since kamala harris became a nominee, and those volunteers they said have knocked on 1.7 million doors across the state. i talked to two of those volunteers yesterday who said they are still finding undecided voters and they are able to talk to them about kamala harris, tell them about her as a candidate and encourage them to get out and vote today. we are going to look and see the turnout for both parties and that really crucial block of unaffiliated voters here in north carolina. annmarie: in 2025 and became the first democrat to win georgia since bill clinton in 1992. what is the ground game look like in this crucial state for both camps? >> both of the candidates have certainly focused a lot here is torture. they closed out on sunday, former president trump in macon and kamala harris in atlanta.

and those were both one of many, many appearances. it's unusually foggy and low visibility here in atlanta today, which of course is george's largest city, but it seems the one thing that voters across georgia can certainly see is the end is in sight to what has really been a to mulcher, tumultuous campaign, especially here in this state. it feels like, as you alluded to, it's been going on since 2020. of course this is a place where the former president the alleged crime of asking to find more votes, and this is also where president biden was like a deer in the proverbial headlights during the debate which led to kamala harris in on the top of the ticket. secretary of state brad raffensperger said yesterday that people in the state have already voted in tremendous,

tremendous numbers. over 4 million people during early voting. another 1.1 million expected today. it should be interesting. annmarie: when will we find the result of georgia? we all remember the recap at took place. when will be cap a final result from the state? >> look, 80% of the counties will have, they say about 80% will have their votes into the secretary of state's office within one hour after the polls close this evening at 7:00 p.m. so it looks like the votes will come in. then the question is to what extent will they be contended. there are a lot of things that have been put in place by the state election board, which is mostly republican-controlled as of recently. that could lead to potential challenges. there have been legal challenges

in the courts in recent days. yesterday the republican party won a challenge asking a relatively small number of votes not be counted because they were absentee ballots that will not get back in time, that were actually mailed out too late as a result of problems within that county. so there are all kinds of things hanging in the balance that, depending upon the outcome, could make a long, long time before we know. lisa: and we are being prepared for that and hunkering down for that. from your vantage point in north carolina, a state that donald trump has gone to a number of times repeatedly over the past few weeks. i'm just curious what you are watching. is it the suburbs, the urban areas, specific sectors? what intel are you hearing on the ground? >> that is real interesting

point because this with the only swing state that donald trump won in 2020, his most narrow victory. the fact that he has spent so much time here, to rallies on saturday, one on sunday, another one yesterday, his campaign is not taking anything for granted. we will be looking at those counties around metro areas, the suburban area that have changed a lot. hundreds of thousands of people moving to the state, registering to vote. so the big question is whether they are going to vote more like the rural counties they use the or more likely suburban counties they are quickly becoming. also watching republican turnout today. republicans had a really strong showing in early voting and the question is whether or not those people would have voted anyway today or if donald trump is converting new voters to his cause in his campaign this year. jonathan: i think we all know someone is moved to north carolina in the last 12 months. i know several people. thank you. i'm pleased brett brought up the debate back in july. i just imagine, and i can't get

into the heads of people, although some of you claim to, if biden and trump agree on one thing is that they wish they never did that debate back in july for sure. annmarie: and if harris wins, the trump campaign is going to look at the potential errors along the course and that would be number one. why did they agree to this debate before the rnc, before the dnc, because can you imagine that debate was in september or october, before this election? finds polling numbers fell off a cliff. the donors were calling and saying there needs to be a change. speaker pelosi basically said we are still waiting for a decision in until it is the right decision we are not going to accept it. that debate was seismic for this election cycle because it meant the incumbent president was no longer at the top of the ticket and it brought in kamala harris who had to re-identify herself but also it brought fresh and oozy as of and a ton more money. we are talking about all this money in pennsylvania, $1.8

billion. guess what? all that fresh money was because of that debate. lisa: i can just imagine if they had really continued on that golf game, if it had been those two candidates, we hear a lot about no, you don't have that bogey, give me a break we hear a lot of that coming out of that campaign. i will say it does highlight how topsy-turvy this entire campaign season has been. jonathan: hasn't donald trump been going after mark cuban's golf game as well? lisa: a very sensitive point, i hear. jonathan: low clubhead speed. lisa: are we to ask him about that? jonathan: we have got some economic data for you in about five minutes time. we got the trade balance and with it later this morning and then later on at 10:00 a.m. eastern time, some important data. ism services for the month of october. i know a lot of this is being overlooked for obvious reasons, but that is an important data point this week. lisa: a question about whether

you can continue expansion or are we slowing down? if you take a look at the average that is losing it in its momentum, i love this quote. jason thomas over at carlisle. like a tree falling in the woods when there is no one there to hear it, the fight convened for the second to last fomc meeting of the year. there is economic data, things we would otherwise be focusing on. but no one seems to be listening. jonathan: we'll have special coverage right here on thursday. i might have to change ties, but i will still be here. same sick, everything. in the next 30 minutes, catch up a thousand average minority owner mark cuban. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ the winter escapes sale is now on. visit sandals.com or call 1-800-sandals.

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♪ jonathan: economic data drops in about 20 seconds time. equity is going into that positive by 2/10 of 1%. up by one third on the nasdaq 100. bond market, big move to start the week. they rallied. we are up by four basis points. of three and the front end of the curve. mike mckee with some breaking economic data. >> economic databank in the news, who would have thought? by thursday a reminder we get the fed again.

the trade deficit which is just a little bit higher than anticipated, 84 flat with the survey number. 70.8 is the revised prior month. it does tell you why reason -- the reason why growth was a little bit more sober than had been anticipated. it is going to be interesting for the fed on thursday because we are going to be asking about this and we are going to be asking if we don't know the winner and if the winner is not harris, we are going to be asking about tariffs. the fed did model in 2018 what would happen with harris, because trump was putting tariffs out at the time. they predicted inflation jumps, consumer fed spending falls, business spending falls. markets go down because lower earnings in prospect. their model said we could either raise rates to deal with higher inflation, and that would probably lead to recession, or

we could look through it and hope that the inflation is short-lived and if it is not, and we got to raise rates anyway. so it is a tough dilemma for them. this was a staff forecast. they don't know what they would do and they don't know how bad it would be, but it wouldn't be a good thing. >> let's bring annealed utter to weigh in on some economic data we've seen. look ahead to that federal reserve decision on thursday. how straightforward is this for the federal reserve on thursday and it doesn't get harder in december? >> in my opinion, it is not. we should expect rate cuts each of the next two meetings, and i think 25 basis points is a lot. my only thing to say about december is at the moment, the markets are priced about 20% for a skip. i think that could shift a little bit towards i think the left side of the distribution, meaning i wouldn't be surprised for the markets to start pricing and it is the basis point cut in

december. i'm not saying that's what they will end up doing, but i think in terms of distributional probabilities, cutting more is more likely than not cutting at all. that is sort of how i'm thinking about it. the labor markets are clearly slowing. lisa: do you feel like this economy is kind of on a path that right now is not going to get disrupted by the election joy that we've been experiencing, where you think this really is a decisive moment that could alter the economic trajectory? >> i mean, in my career, i just tend to tune out the political noise. yes, things can change in terms of fiscal policy but i think it is not wise for the fed to sort of friend run these potential outcomes. i know there's been a lot on the so-called trump trade in the financial markets, this idea that the tax cut extension,

tariffs, less immigration will push up dollar in bond yields and so forth, but i think it's important just to take a step back, think about the sort of sequencing of events here. if you go back to the first time he was in office, tariffs were actually the first thing that was happening. the first thing that was happening market friendly type stuff like deregulation and tax cuts. or what happens, i think the markets seem to be saying more of a chance of a unified sort of gop government. i think the race is a coin flip, frankly, but it's not like they're going to be able to steamroll whatever it is they want through congress. congress will still be very divided, even if the gop wins. particularly in the house. so i just think there's a little bit too much inflation risk

premium baked in from a potential trump win. jonathan: that final point a really important one. the federal reserve meeting on thursday. kamala harris out raising donald by nearly five to one among big donors and the final stages of the campaign. one wealthy individual supporting harris's mark cuban, the minority owner of the dallas mavericks and i'm pleased to say he joins us now. we spoke to a trump campaign advisor a little bit early this morning and start with you in a similar way that i started with him, which is basically i'm waking up this morning, i'm a swing state voter and pennsylvania state and i still haven't decided who i'm going to vote for and then thinking back to how harris talked about in 2019 that she wanted to ban fracking. i understand she's changed her mind but i'm worried that she's in a shape shifter, she gets back into power and she will change her mind again. how do you settle those concerns? >> the world has changed since

2019, she's open-minded. she wants to give dissenting opinions a place at the table with her. she's not doug maddock. -- dogmatic. i think that is a nonissue, but in terms of is she just an extension of biden, just look at biden's budget proposal vs. what, harris actually proposed. biden wanted much higher taxes, kamala harris came in at 28% for tax gains in 28% per corporation and did not and will not say a word about unrealized capital gains. i think she's completely different. she's not a shape shifter in the least bit. annmarie: that individual we were speaking to sense that harris, what he hears from a lot of wall street journal's that she would be moderated by a republican senate, and that is why wall street would be willing to vote for her, because of that moderating effect that she would get from a red senate. is there any truth to that?

>> of course. balance is not a bad thing necessarily. i'm not opposed to a divided congress. but the bottom line is what will kamala harris do? i think she's better for the economy in so many ways. there's 335 million people in this country. 4 million make $400,000 or more. the other three under 30 million make less and she has been very specific that if you make $400,000 or less your taxes aren't going up. for 100 million people, they are going down. the other big expense that every household is fearful of his health care expenses. donald trump has said he has concepts of a plan. harris has been very specific on the pharmaceutical side saying she's going after the pharmacy benefit managers and she will introduce transparency. i know from my own personal experience of the cost-plus drugs that will lead to a 30% or more deduction in the cost of medications for household and businesses. then you got tariffs. as was said earlier, tariffs are

a bad idea. annmarie: if they are so bad why did biden and harris keep them? they kept the trump era tariffs up. >> that's not completely accurate. first, look at the e.u. biden signed a deal saying there would be no tariffs between the two for the next five years, so this tariffs are gone. and then you look at what trump tried to introduce. he had for years to try to implement tariff that worked and he got his butt kicked by china. the retaliatory carrots almost destroyed the soybean and farming industry and he had to pay up $20 million. but as it applies to households he's talking about 60% across the board tariffs for chinese imports. china makes just about every christmas present that we buy for a kids of families would be looking at 60% or more increase in what they spend on dismissed and the downstream impact of that would be significant to small and large businesses. annmarie: let's talk about something you've been very vocal on, regulation. you said you don't think harris

should keep lina khan, the head of the ftc on. and aoc went to twitter and she said billionaires like you, mark, are trying to play ftse's with the ticket. if anyone goes near lina khan there will be "an out and out brawl." where is harris when it comes to things like the ftc? >> i don't know, i haven't talked personnel with her and i have no intention about talking about personnel. i was asked a question about what i thought about the ftc and i thought that the possibility of breaking up the big technology companies would be negative because i think winning the ai battle for the united states is paramount from the military and economic perspective. so i voiced my opinion but i'm not involved in those conversations at all. lisa: but race is the ultimate question, what policies will she follow? she's been engaging with aoc quite a bit and there's a real question about how much they will be an effort to cater to the further left sides of the

democratic wing vs. the centrist appeal that she's been trying to have. how much are you confident that she is going to have business executives in cabinet positions, in top areas where she really is listening to what they have to say? >> i talk to her campaign almost every day. i'm not just confident, i'm certain that is what they are going to do. i've been on the trail with doug emhoff, who talks about what a capitalist she is. she's talked about wanting to create 25 million new businesses. that's not a reflection of anything far left. one of the first things she did was introduce a tax deduction or increase a tax deduction for start up costs to $50,000. that's very important. she recognizes that 33 million companies in this country, 99% are pass-through, 99% are people making 100 k or less. they create most of the new jobs every singly year. she's focused on opportunity

economy. i don't think she could be any more clear. >> do you think this campaign could have done more to react to the male voter? this seems to be an election unique in just have bifurcated the male and female that has been. there were some questions around joe rogan and had to appeal to the male vote and how to really bring the genders together. what is your take on this campaign approach to that? >> i think it was very data-driven. women had a high propensity of voting. with reproductive rights and other issues that were geared toward women, i think she did a great job of connecting to them. maybe she didn't do everything she could with men, that is ok because she went to the people who are going to vote more. as a businessperson you go to the people you have the best opportunity to sell to. who is going to vote for you in this particular case? the fact that she's only been in the race 14 weeks and she's, completely and now i believe

will win today, i think she's done the exact right thing. jonathan: there's a famous quote from michael jordan which i'm sure you know well. republicans by sneakers two. raises the question about you, i wanted to ask you about this. for a man with a line of businesses, why was it important to put your name and reputation on the line and really get deep into politics when ultimately, republicans buy sneakers, too? >> this is a close election for a reason and i think kamala harris will be the best president and is a better choice than donald trump. it's that simple. i love this country, i'm in this position because of everything this country has given me. i am blessed and i truly believe that she will be the better president for the united states of america. that is the only reason i'm doing this. >> thanks for sharing your time with us this morning, we appreciate it. mark cuban on the latest campaign effort from the harris campaign. annmarie: he's the closest thing

to elon musk that the democrats have and it is a great question you ask because if you are a business individual, he says he's not getting deep into politics, well he's not a politician but he is deep into politics. he is one of their biggest surrogates on the harris campaign, and he's spending a lot of time and money trying to get her elected. jonathan: certainly deep into campaigning. your thoughts on your question and the answer you got with about the male vote. lisa: the fact that women vote more than men which is something a lot of people have been talking about leaning into. i don't know what the answer is but i do think that there is a reckoning after the selection about how divided male and female voters really are in this country. i don't know all the answers, but i really want those discussions, i want to hear them and to listen with people have to say because it is so notable and that aspect has been unprecedented. jonathan: if you're just joining us, equity futures up by 2/10 of 1% with an update on stories elsewhere this morning. with your bloomberg breeze, with cross over to dani burger.

>> up 17% premarket. reported quarterly revenue that the analyst estimates also raises forecast for operating income. setting higher demand in the u.s. for its ai software. shares are up 140% so far this year. apple is exploring a push into smart glasses, setting the stage for the company to compete with meta. the tech giant began an internal study codename atlas last week which involves gathering feedback from apple employees on smart glasses. more focus groups are planned for the near future. meanwhile shares of win are falling 2%. --wynn. they missed the target estimate largely driven by operations and macau. profits were 10% below expectations. wynn also said it approved a buyback of up to one million shares, the company ceo saying the results reflect healthy demand across resorts. and that is your bloomberg

breeze. jonathan: welcome to the program to all of you if you are just joining us. equity futures up by two tents of 1%. just the flavor of the bond market for you, yields higher by more than four basis now. some important economic data about an hour from now in the united states. 15 minutes after that, ism services read in america which i keep saying it, and i know you agree, that is an important data point for this market. >> it has been the pillar that has been holding up a lot of the engine growth in the manufacturing sector which is been in recession. the key question, can you see that expansion continue at a time when we heard also from veronica clark over at morgan stanley, there is a real question about just how much momentum is in this economy. >> up next, we set you up for the day ahead, the week ahead and maybe the month ahead. we take you back to both candidates headquarters as election day gets underway.

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♪ jonathan: 42 minutes until the opening bell with equity futures up by two tents of 1%, yields higher by four basis points. as we can't you down to the opening bell, the rest of the week today the u.s. presidential election plus u.s. pmi data. thursday the fed decision and in the round of jobless claims plus a rate decision from the boe and on friday if you are still around for this, consumer sentiment data. can you imagine being around for that? lisa: 10:00 a.m. i'll be sitting at my desk. jonathan: we will still be waiting for numbers from pennsylvania. annmarie: are we going to get the ultimate consumer data with a result of the selection? jonathan: nothing else matters after that, that's for sure. team coverage of the trump and

harris campaigns for a final word. tyler, first to you. walk us through the former president today? >> we are waiting to get inside the palm beach convention center. security is incredibly high, secret service doing sweeps before former president trump arrives for his election night watch party tonight. but before those results, before that watch party, this election could really come down to which candidate did a better job of convincing americans that they are best for the economy. we talk about trump's closing arguments we saw him on the campaign trail yesterday doing what he called his signature weave, but also trying to hammer home his own economic vision. for example just yesterday introducing a new threat of heightened tariffs against mexico. so clearly trying to capitalize on the sentiment that we are seeing that despite some recent bright spots and economic indicators, the economy remains the top issue for voters.

in polling shows us former president trump is currently leading vice president harris when it comes to voter confidence on the economy by about 5%. it is important to note that in that same poll when he was running against president biden, the gap was 14%, so clear that vice president harris has made some inroads when it comes to that issue, but that former president trump clearly holds the edge still when it comes to the economy. annmarie: last night we saw the vice president physically knocking on doors in pennsylvania. basically asking people for their votes in these final moments. what is she doing today? >> the vice president is hunkered down here in d.c. today, she is at her residence at the naval observatory. the call time is not until this afternoon, and what we know is that she will be doing media rounds with radio stations across all seven swing states. so she is still out there doing the media rounds, trying to connect with last-minute voters in those battlegrounds, but for

the most part she will be hunkered down today and be most likely won't see her until the election night festivities at howard university, her alma mater. of the campaign really has been only in this race for a little more than 100 days and last night one of her senior campaign officials said that they are confident that vice president harris will win all seven battlegrounds, and that was coming from david plus who ran barack obama's 2008 presidential campaign. that is potentially some wishful thinking but i think one thing the campaign has done, and even harris has set herself that they are the underdogs, that they have a lot of momentum, so it will be interesting to see how all that momentum does play out with the first polls set to close in less than 12 hours. and i think that we will see from the campaign how that momentum really plays out. lisa: what are you looking for in terms of what the trump camp wants to see before they declare victory or potentially cede the

election? >> right, exactly. in recent days leading up to this we've seen former president trump telling his supporters that this is their election to lose. despite all of the polls showing us that this is going to be an incredibly close race. that sort of rhetoric is raising concerns that he might contest the election results before they are even called, or if they are not called in his favor. important to point out that trump and his allies filed at least 60 different lawsuits in the wake of the 2020 elections. both sides of the isle are gearing up for any potential litigation when it comes to this. we know the rnc as well as the dnc has been fundraising happily, raising millions of dollars for any potential battles. i will quickly point between recent analysis which found that 165 lawsuits were filed on everything from mail-in ballots to early voting.

so it does appear that both sides could be gearing up for a potential litigation fight going into this week. jonathan: more of that later on this evening. to the both of you, thank you. special coverage later on this evening. election night 2024. the bloomberg team, kailey leinz following the house and senate races. on the markets, lisa, dani burger and annmarie trying to keep us all away a little bit later. annmarie: for this evening and potentially the rest of the week. the number one issue being the economy, which it has been. the entire year this ranks far and large the biggest issue hitting voters, but then we got a poll over the weekend from iowa and this came after the summer, iowa putting one of the strictest abortion bands we seen across the nation. six weeks. and then you saw this uptick of women going out to vote. and not just young women, women 65 and over who remember when

roe was stated and now when it was taken back. and you can think that this is about the economy but there is the potential that these pollsters are underestimating the fact that more women are going to be going to polls because of abortion. lisa: it remains to be seen whether or not that is going to be a harbinger foreshadowing what could potentially happen, if there is a pink wave or not. if it is the economy, certainly djt has the upper hand. in terms of the economic data, there are some of the different stories behind each person, each industry, each area. the fact that romain saide that in michigan it is foreign policy, some of the muslim communities as well as some of the polish communities. where you hear about the economy in some places and other places it is things like abortion. i am struck by how everyone has a unique story and their own community that they've forged online or whatever and how it is so difficult to speak about any of this in some sort of overarching average. >> these polls are won on the

margins. biden won the blue wall with just 77,000 votes. you have to make sure you are going laser sharp into these different groups, which is why when you have maybe an unforced error saying puerto rico is an island of garbage, that could hurt you in a place like pennsylvania, where there are some 500,000 puerto ricans living and maybe some of them are going to vote after hearing that. jonathan: let's wrap it up, i need to go to bed and then i will see you at 7:00 p.m. eastern time. mohamed el-erian of queens college cambridge. overcame the city fed president thomas koenig. from new york city, that does it for us this morning. we will see you later on this evening for special coverage of election night 2024 with equity futures on the s&p 500 firmer by 2/10 of 1%. that does it for us. thank you for choosing bloomberg tv. this was bloomberg surveillance.

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matt: today is the day. 30 minutes until the start of cash trading on this election day. katie: "bloomberg open interest" starts right now. ♪ sonali: today is the day. election day is finally here. harris and trump and one of the most dramatic presidential campaigns in history is now down to the voter to decide the winner. matt: from marke