matt: welcome to our continuing coverage of election 2024. after is historic wynford donald trump a historic win for donald trump. sonali: coming up, the trump transition. we will take an early look as allies and advisors jockey for a seat at the table. matt: elon musk's big bet on trump. he will now find out whether it pays off or he ends up getting burned. katie: next, the fed takes center stage.

trump's victory raises big uncertainties for the central bank. let's take a look at these markets. you have the s&p 500 up one point 8%. the nasdaq 100 regaining his lead over the s&p 500, up about one point 9%. small caps in charge right now. what is amazing is the volume now according to my screen, more than one hundred percent higher on the s&p 500 versus its 20 day average. the bond market has been holding the sell off all morning, 10 year yield higher by 18 basis points. volatility in the equity market holding off a little and gold, not a haven bid to be found. matt: absolutely fascinating and pretty extreme market moves after that election, which itself was fascinating and extreme. let's continue our coverage of the presidential win by donald

trump. he delivered his remarks to supporters in west palm beach this morning. these remarks came after it was clear he would not only win the white house but his party was set to control the senate as well. >> i believe the greatest political movement of all time. there has never been anything like this in our country. and now it is going to reach a new level of importance because we are going to help our country heal. we have a country that needs help. matt: let's head to west palm beach. the odds that this man overcame to win the presidential election again ever -- after having lost it, format convictions, two assassination attempts. they switched his opponent mid-race. it is pretty impressive in terms of presidential victories. >> it is a remarkable series of

events we have witnessed over the last couple months and even last year and a half. not only did he defeat a dozen or so primary candidates in iowa and had a resounding victory, everything that has happened since then -- he almost did not have a chance to overcome what was thrown at him after the legal challenges and the assassination attempts. one of the things the trump team was keen on doing was building sympathy among voters, to tell voters look at everything donald trump is being forced to deal with because he is running to represent you. that message resonated with a lot of people and is something that time and time again i would hear from voters, whether or not they were at a trump rally. something that stuck out to them was how much news coverage donald trump had an especially how much he was facing in that time. sonali: thank you for your

reporting. joining us now on set, charles phillips, a former oracle executive who is now the cofounder and managing partner at an investment firm. he serves on many boards, including american express and previously on other boards including morgan stanley and paramount. you have a close view here of how the business community feels. you were a close supporter for the harris campaign. how do people feel today? what changes? >> i think the market is up for a reason and big tech will enjoy this because the regulation and prohibitions against mergers and acquisitions -- people were complain about that, so you have small companies who are kind of stuck. this will free that up, so the overregulation aspect -- business people will enjoy that. matt: i wonder what you make of

the rise in interest rates and small-cap stocks. a lot of tech companies are not necessarily making a profit, so they need interest rates to stay low. you cannot have those stocks up and rates up at the same time for a long period. >> something has to give. people are trying to decide if it is something slowly over time, so the market is adjusting somewhat because of tariffs. >> i want to talk about the prospect of m&a when it comes to tech. we were talking a couple minutes ago and he said he is not expecting deals in the tech space necessarily. maybe you see some acquisitions. what is your take? >> people were afraid to try it because you did not know how the regulatory environment would react. with more certainty, you will see people weighed back in

again. sonali: when we think about big tech, one movie thought was interesting was not just nvidia rising or even amazon rising. it was also the likes of intel, so when we think about the donald trump story, to have american businesses on shore, who wins in that scenario and how much support from the u.s. government is given in pursuit to that goal? >> i expect them to continue to support the chips act. it probably helps the auto industry if he is going to put share -- tariffs on ev's as well. that is going to help detroit. matt: intel is supposed to get $20 billion worth of funding from the government. it is only an $80 billion stock.

i am not sure that donald trump is necessarily going to influence that, but do you see this speeding those kind of things up? >> it makes it possible to have these conversations. before, it was not worth spending money on it and now you can at least talk about it and see what is possible. katie: tech m&a sounds like it is coming back, maybe in the form of acquisitions, but you said those small tech companies cannot go public so maybe they will see relief, but why can't they go public? is there anything about this new environment where you could see companies come to the public markets? >> the ipo market shut down for several years and it did not work for a while. it may open back up, but you cannot count on that. they built a company and want to start another one and all the regulations you get, they just

do not want that. the only outcome is we need to be strategic. if you are saying that is possible, that is a good thing for everybody. matt: matt: in your opinion, what went wrong here? this is a candidate who faced more adversity than any presidential candidate in history. the justice department was after him. four indictments. two assassination attempts. harris raised more money than he did. how do you lose? >> this was the biggest comeback since the 1968 jets. he did it. we need to get behind him if he is going to be president, but she had a tough time trying to redefine herself. no one really knew her. immigration and inflation got tied to her. matt: i still do not really know her because she did not tell me what she felt on these issues. i had no idea what she thought

of the state and local tax deduction. >> she put out a lot of policy papers on her website, but nobody goes to read that. i'm sure people will be talking about that for years to come. 60 million people heard trump and joe rogan and he reached a lot of men, which is where she was weak. it is hard to be the candidate of change when you have been vice president for four years. he had both those things going for him. katie: so maybe not reaching the demographics she needed to reach. we did not have a primary. i'm curious how that factored in. it was a compressed campaign, but the fact that she did not go through the primary process, how do you think that factored in? >> i think primaries make you a better candidate come but this was an unusual situation. even if we had a primerica it

would have been truncated. there were some people that did not want to vote for her and may not have been ready for a black woman to be president. i think she did and amazing drop to put policy papers out and raise money. that is tough for anybody to do. nobody knew this person four years ago and he has been in the public eye for four decades. sonali: we were talking about the market and you were a harris supporter and wondering what you think now comes of the democratic party. you have the house on the line, the white house read. the market reacting to trump as the pro-business president. you still have record highs in the s&p 500 under biden, but the narrative has changed. how does the democratic party change the narrative around that given concerns about the

business crackdown that has permeated the last couple months? >> this will force reflection on the party. people will learn from this because they do not want to keep losing. if you go on the democratic website, there is a page that says who we are. it is about people of color and women. there is no black men there. you have to talk to everybody. you have to expand the base on who you consider a democrat. earl areas are just as important as cities. we have to rethink how we go about this. that conversation has to start today. >> coming up, a win for donald trump also means a win for elon musk. we will look at the latest in tesla shares next. this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: after donald trump wins the election, elon musk's big bet looks like it is paying off. tesla shares surge as investors wager the ev maker will be a big winner when trump returns to the white house. rivian shares are down. ed ludlow joins us with more pr rivian is not a huge competitor to tesla. they kind of own this lane in terms of ev's hearing is his investment going to start paying dividends right away? ed: the immediate reaction of the shares is largely just by association between elon musk and donald trump and overnight

he has been speaking about the work that he did on the trump campaign's ground game, kind of taking responsibility for it. the consensus among industry experts is that trump's policy platform may impact existing policy for electric vehicles on the incentive side or support for manufacturers negatively and repeal what some of the legislation allows for, but many see tesla as well positioned because those incentives are allowing the rest of the field to catch up. i think the shares are kind of split. katie: i want to talk about elon musk and the trump administration and what that would mean for tesla. he has his hand in six different companies. he has more distracted and divided ceo than most.

i feel i can potentially entering political life is a different story here. ed: that is a reasonable summary appearance i spent all night on the phone and i have written to the boards of tesla and spacex to ask what is the plan. have the boards of both companies met to discuss whether elon musk remains in his post? i haven't heard back. what i have heard from sources is the assumption is musk will take on some kind of advisory role rather than a sort of permanent, fixed an official federal role. in doge, department of governmental efficiency. he has demonstrated he is able to do that, but there are still questions about the technicalities of how that would work. matt: thanks so much. really appreciate your commentary on this historic day. we are bringing back charles

philip, a former oracle investment. he serves on many boards, including our board here at bloomberg lp as well as american express. i wonder what you think of the west coast billionaires getting in on this election. elon musk getting $130 million to donald trump is one thing, but peter thiel also helped create jd vance. it is not unusual for wealthy people to buy themselves a place at the table in administrations, but what do you make of this? charles: that happens on both sides, every -- ever since citizens united. there are too many people profiting from that for it to change.

so that is going to continue. sonali: to the extent it continues in this round, people putting money in races are affiliated with different types of technologies, even when comes to elon musk, so what role is that going to play? what role is that going to play in the new economy and what are the ripple effects? it will impact jobs and energy consumption. it is just pervasive. charles: it is going to happen whether we have a policy or not. you would rather have someone advising the best places to use ai and the right policy for it. it will happen without us in other countries. that is not a bad thing, to have technology people around him. katie: i'm curious how you approach ai as an investor, recognizing it is a private growth equity firm. ai has been the talk of the town in markets for 2, 3 years at

this point. what opportunities do you see there? how do you filter out hype from reality? charles: that is the number one question our lps ask us, which things will get automated and so forth. every investment, that is the number one question we start with. does it replace this business? i think the things it accelerates are more than the things that it replaces. that is the history of technology. it takes a while to get going. that is the way the cycles work. they take a long time to get started but then they are bigger than you'd ever imagine. we are excited. it is an investment theme we have now. sonali: he sought small-cap stocks were rallying. but the large cap here are jumping off of a larger base and you now see palantir at another record high.

you see american express at a record high. you are seeing this across sectors for these large companies and it cannot be ignored. when you think about the marginal impact here, the difference that a red senate, may be a red house, and a trump white house means, what industry is going to feel it most? >> it is hard to say one specific industry but pharma is one. we think big tech and the auto industry, so every -- almost every industry will benefit potentially. and then the proposal to raise taxes on buybacks is probably not going to happen now, so that is a positive. lower taxes, better capital gains tax rate, dividends will be easier to do. i wonder what companies do.

how do they prepare themselves for an incoming trump administration if that is possible? >> that is hard to do because it is not always certain. this is an idea i have versus this is what i am actually going to do. you have to wait and see what things get implemented and that is what people will be focused on trying to get a sense of. it also depends on who he surrounds himself with. katie: what about when it comes to tariffs? tariffs -- he does not need congress to do that. that can sort of happen. you think about the tech industry and relationships with china and these chip names. i do not know how you prepare for that? charles: the likelihood of a 60% tariff on all chinese products -- that is unlikely to happen quickly. the more likely scenario, it will be measured over time.

if he did that right away, that is immediate inflation. that is a tax on everybody. the goods we are importing from those countries -- we do not have products that replace those here, so what are you going to do? they will raise prices to pass it to the consumer, so i do not think it happens right away. katie: we thank you for being here in studio. we have more on the markets up next and many stocks at record highs. we will show you what is under the hood next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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katie: welcome back to our continuing coverage of election 2024. let's check the stock market, ripping higher. you can see the s&p 500 up by about 1.9 percent, big tech also getting in on the action. small caps is where it is at the russell 2008 leading the charge, higher by 4.6%, just a fantastic day for those smaller companies, heavily weighted to financials and health care. let's take a look across assets because that is where a lot of the action is. you can see the 10 year yield holding it sell off when it

comes to the bond market, up about 10 basis points. i am excited to see that 30 year auction later today. we talk about it all the time and the selloff we are seeing, but if we see decent demand at this auction coming up maybe we will come back a little bit. matt: i have not looked forward to a treasury auction in my entire life. it is fascinating to see these moves and will be fascinating to see if this market still has concerns about inflation. at the top of the show, he said he does in think we are going to see inflation. we have seen economists say the same thing, but it is important to point out that donald trump won every swing state that has been called. he won the popular vote, the first time a republican has done that in 20 years. inflation is probably kryptonite for any president in office, but

also looks like a rejection of immigration and policies from the biden administration. >> and soul-searching on whether that is inflation fears or something else. this is bloomberg. ♪ so, what are you thinking? i'm thinking... (speaking to self) about our honeymoon. what about africa? safari? hot air balloon ride? swim with elephants? wait, can we afford a safari? great question. like everything, it takes a little planning. or, put the money towards a down-payment... ...on a ranch ...in montana ...with horses let's take a look at those scenarios. j.p. morgan wealth management has advisors in chase branches and tools, like wealth plan to keep you on track. when you're planning for it all... the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management.

katie: welcome back to our continuing coverage of election 2024. we have been checking in on the big rally and it is still underway and still gaining momentum. the s&p 500 is up by 2%. nasdaq 100 up by more than 2%. small caps are firmly in the lead. the little guys are the biggest winners. the russell 2000 is up about 4.6%. looking at the trump trade in the wake of the election but has been building for weeks, we will do that with the chief equity

strategist at bloomberg intelligence. of course, it has been a busy week, a busy 24 hours. you look at the stock market, it feels like we've been talking about the trump trade reappearing for weeks. especially in the bond market, but equities as well. you could have made the case that a trump win was priced in, but clearly the trade has more juice. >> in the grand scheme, stocks are following a seasonal pattern. they struggle in october of election years and when the election is over you get a nice bounce. i think the thing that surprised people is we have an election results so fast. you typically get very strong seasonals coming in november and december. postelection year seasonals have been suppressed recently by a lot of uncertainty with respect to elections, but this is very certain results. matt: not just so fast, but overwhelming.

usually we would complain about the electoral college being outdated, but he won the popular vote as well, so we can't do that. i wonder how many investors -- the broadening out is interesting. the rotation especially. in small caps, we have been highlighting they cannot be up forever if rates are up this high. part of that is investors already so invested in the mag 7 and s&p. there is nowhere else to go. gina: that's part of it. there is pent-up demand for small caps. tax reform, top of the trump agenda, is likely to aid small caps more than large caps, which i think is correct. small caps have some sort of pent-up aggression that is being worked out in the market. matt: most of them lose money, right? gina: less than you think. 40% of small caps were unprofitable in 2021.

27% now. the long-term average is 35%. the small-cap index has gotten a bad reputation, if you will, of being unprofitable, un -investable, and now it is getting some love. they will lead when you have big rips in the equity market. katie: fascinating, and she's right to keep an eye on it. large caps, one thing you mentioned is, the only thing that is a near certainty at this point is tax cuts. if we think about those tax cuts, how do you calculate what it means at the end of the day for eps? is it baked in? gina: there's no evidence tax reform is baked into the individual equities in the s&p 500. we run low tax versus high tax baskets. low tax companies have been outperforming high tax companies. the company level there is room

for higher taxed entities to improve a lot. the dynamics of tax, there is a lot of uncertainty. will we get with the trump campaign has been suggesting, a 15% corporate tax rate, recovery of all of the special considerations that were in the tax and jobs act of 2017. we don't know if that is possible in today's budgetary environment. what seems likely is at least a recovery of the expirations that were likely to happen through the end of 2025. we estimate it is about a 3% bump. i will work through the mathematics. prior to the tax act of 2017, companies were paying 19% in the s&p 500 to tax. after the act, we got down to 14%. you had a 5% decline in the amount of tax paid in that experience. as part of those reforms have

expired, we have gotten back to a point where companies are paying 17.5% effective tax rates. could we get back to 14%? absolutely. that is our best guess. with reforms in this budgetary landscape we aren't likely to get to 15%. we likely just go back and get another 2017, which gives us a three percent bump to the s&p 500. sonali: we need to see what goes from campaign promise to actual policy. let's talk about what we know. it is still earnings season, and i love this note that you had the other day. so what if earnings are great. you have valuations getting in the way. valuations do not seem to be top of mind this morning, of all mornings, but how do you see that dynamic between strong earnings? gina: this will be interesting into 2025 because the primary driver of valuations is a

combination of animal spirits, risk tolerance, longer-term outlook for growth, and fed policy and interest rates. how much of that is going to change with the new administration going forward? if we have much stronger growth prospects that emerge as a result of tax reforms, what does that do with the fed? do we not have as many cuts coming from the fed as the bond market anticipated? we will have to work through that. what i think is happening in earnings seasons, and last season as well as this season, earning responses are great until the tech mega caps reporting. no one is happy because they are trading at such extreme valuations that they can't possibly satisfy market implied expectations. they are beating analyst forecasts across the board, but that's not enough because their multiples are so high. when i talk about valuations getting in the way for the earnings season, it's about tech. longer-term, i think it will get

more complicated than we were anticipating a month ago without this election result. matt: thank you for joining us, gina martin adams from bloomberg intelligence. we will look at elon musk's businesses and how his role may change under donald trump. remember in 2016, you had a bunch of wall street bigwigs cash out of their portfolios and get a huge benefit when they went to work for the federal government. could that happen again? this is bloomberg. ♪

matt: this is continuing coverage of election 2024 after donald trump's resounding victory. the principal room is live. we will talk to haley stevens, democratic representative. sonali: the trump can begin to assemble as many of his closest

allies look to gain a spot in trump's cabinet. we are joined now in washington following the transition very much a lot of posturing. there have been so many names, particularly those that have been close to wall street. you think the likes of scott besting, j clayton who have served in a trump term before. how do these potential future candidates stack up against the candidates in washington and what it means for policy ahead. wendy: it is all an open game now. let the posturing and jockeying and favor-calling in games begin now. there is the trump transition team led now by the cantor fitzgerald ceo. he now is in charge of personnel. mcmahon, trump's small business

administration head, is in charge of policy. one thing to remember is people see all of these names, like the ones that you mentioned and thousands more, there is only one person who matters in this decision-making. that is donald trump. if you remember in 2016, chris christie was running the transition. he came up with very traditional names for trump. trump fired him and started over with mike pence running the transition. it will be a crazy couple of months, but we should start seeing serious names for positions like white house chief of staff which doesn't need senate confirmation, treasury secretary and secretary of state are positions often filled before thanksgiving after an election so that allies and markets have some sense of what the future holds. katie: let's name some names. you think about the likes of

john paulson. who are some of the other contenders that we should be keeping an eye on as they seek to fill the bench? wendy: so many. none of them are serious enough that i frankly feel comfortable going into their names. the names that you mentioned are popular names. howard ludnick himself is a popular name. there's any number of people who would take these jobs, but for now is just a parlor game of speculation. matt: thank you for joining us. probably hasn't slept a wink, so we thank you for your coverage. let's dive into one person in particular who may very well work in the next white house. elon musk. for more, we bring in the cohost of the very popular podcast elon inc. max, i was saying that it would be interesting if musk were to

take a role in the government. and like many people in the past , he may be able to sell his holdings in tesla without paying capital gains tax. that would be a great way for him to save a lot of money. max: that will be quite a 3d chess kind of move. i'm skeptical selling tesco stock -- tesla stock is a big motivator. his ownership is so big that i think unloading it would create issues for the stock and problems for elon musk's net worth. he will try to keep his stock and figure out a way to have the white house influence that does not allow him to back away from these companies. that will be tricky, because obviously there are ethical considerations of if he is going to start covering government departments and is a defense contractor, that creates questions. matt: one question that i've

gotten from a few viewers already is, does tesla face key man risk? you could've asked that same question when he went to run x, and spacex, the boring company, does that bother tesla shareholders or are they happy about it? max: tesla obviously faces key man risk. i don't know that the key man risk is already so high that i don't know that this changes. you look at the way that the market is responding, the stock has gone way up. last i checked it was up 13%. that is a lot of money to elon musk's net worth. he may be spent to something like $185 million on this election effort when all is said and done. he will have done very nicely and i don't think you will want to stop. his hope, as he has signaled on the campaign trail, is that donald trump will make a bunch of policies that will make these companies even more successful. that he will play a personal role in the mars program.

i don't think that we should expect him to take some kind of formal role. i don't think that it will be a role that requires senate confirmation. wendy is saying that he will have the president's ear. we learn from the last trump presidency that that may be more important than any particular job that you hold or whatever your official policy portfolio is. katie: we talk about elon musk in the context of tesla and spacex. let's talk about him in the context of x. i feel like x played a role in this election. max: for me, this is one of the big takeaways. for several years people have been talking about x in narrow terms. we have been looking at fidelity, writing down its value every quarter. the value on paper has fallen by 80%. if you look at what third parties are saying, i think that you have to look at this as a very successful acquisition.not in terms of business terms because

x's revenue has fallen in their user base is iffy, but in the sense that this has become a vital platform on the right. this is how the political right in the united states and people who affiliate with that are consuming their news, our organizing. -- are organizing. people talked about after 2020 what would be the new fox news for the trump world. i think this is it. this is the media arm of the maga movement and that is potentially a valuable thing and politically significant thing. sonali: i went to go to starlink speaking of the many parts of elon musk's orbit. you have a closeness to the president, a fractured world, starlink playing a role in other countries. how does trump's relationship to many of these countries change elon musk's presence globally? max: what starlink needs is more customers. it needs customers. it needs to sell more

subscriptions to regular people. it needs defense contracts. trump can help with both. elon musk has been trying to pivot starlink into more of a service provider for the u.s. government. someone who could sell the air force satellite connectivity or an ally's army or air force or whatever. then you have the u.s. government could subsidize starlink connections in rural areas. this is something elon musk was fixated on and struck out during the bite in years. i think it's a good bet that that will change under whoever trump picks to run the fcc. katie: donald trump, a lot of happy noises, the best of friends. how long do you think that will last? elon musk and donald trump have had a hot and cold relationship. max: in terms of their character come they seem like men who like to occupy the most important spot in the room. you wonder, how long can they coexist?

elon musk before the victory party, and the thing that everyone was focused on, the trump election said that he will spend in the midterms. he will be trying to elect local officials, senators, congressmen, whatever. so, he will be a big donor to the republican party moving forward and that will give him leverage over donald trump.i don't think it's likely that trump will take the money and run. he sees musk correctly as an important ally, media ally, a celebrity, arguably the most important spokesperson that is not donald trump for the maga movement. i don't think they will break up . where the rubber meets the road is when elon musk suggests something that is politically unpopular, which he certainly will because he likes to push the envelope. i think that is where there may be some tension. sonali: he has a large platform. his media company, x, and a lot of money in the down ballot races.

max, thank you for all of your reporting. trump's victory raises uncertainties for the federal reserve. tomorrow, the central bank is expected to cut interest rates at at least 25 basis points. traders are paring bets on the fed's neutral rate under trump. michael mckee has the details. michael: wall street is seeing what everyone else is seeing and that is donald trump's plans are uncertain. in broad terms we know what he wants to do but he hasn't given enough details to model anything out. the fed doesn't know what will happen. what you can expect tomorrow is a statement that says, we have cut interest rates by 25 basis points. we don't know what is going to happen next. we will ask jay powell over and over and over what he thinks of the trump economic plans. he will say over and over and over, we don't have enough detail. we will deal with detail when it happens to affect the economy. matt: we do know what treasury

yields are going to look like, right? we see now that the 10 year is basically at 4.50 and the 30-year yield jumped and prices dropped the most since 2016. how much of an effect does that have on the fed's view? michael: we have to see how long that lasts. if that continues it will affect how the fed thinks about it, but it is kind of binary. one path is that the interest rate goes up as it has because the markets think that the trump plans will be inflationary. that slows the economy and the fed will want to cut rates. if it is inflationary, they may want to raise rates to bring down inflation. they are stuck at this point waiting for the details to see how it is applied. in 2018 the fed staff did a study on the trump tariffs and

said they are probably going to be inflationary. but the best thing that you can do at the moment is look through them, because it is a one-time rise in the price level rather than an ongoing threat of inflation. matt: bloomberg's mike mckee on what i would have to say again is a pretty historic day, the 47th president is elected with all of the swing states that have been called and the popular vote. we will talk about what this means for the markets and the country, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

katie: this is continuing coverage of election 2024 and we have been all about the markets these past three hours. we have a rally underway, as we keep telling you. the s&p 500, up about 2%. big tech, that had been the lacquered. not anymore -- laggard. not anymore. up about 2.2%. the small caps, the russell 2000, up 4.7%. the conversation that we were having with alex about how sustainable the small-cap can

be, when you have the long end of the treasury curve screaming higher. sonali: big, big bond selloff but we haven't hit the 4.5% level. it is interesting to see the large caps come back. a lot of good color on what that would mean next year if they get it. we will see what the house does. matt: the market is clearly assuming with this treasury move that trump is going to put tariffs into effect. that is then going to result in inflation. that is the big question, what tariffs he will put into effect. he can do that without congress. also, what tax packages he will put through. immigration policy, some of that he can do on his own. katie: what goes from campaign promise to policy are the questions we will be asking until january. sonali: volatility is lower, so orderly disorder, if you will come in the market.

matt: we have yet to see a concession speech. we will wait for that from kamala harris. it is planned for 4:00 p.m. this afternoon, after donald trump won the popular vote and enough electoral college votes to become the 47th president of the united states. this is bloomberg. ♪ you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean. not spreadsheets... you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. our matching platform lets you spend less time searching and more time connecting with candidates. visit indeed.com/hire

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