welcome to boom -- >> welcome to bloomberg markets. we are covering the trump trade and how that continues to play out in the markets to let's get a check on those markets. we start with the s&p 500 trying to decide what to do today. we had the best weekly performance of 2024 last week. you can see some of that momentum faltering today. the s&p 500 up a 10th of a percent. we are still above 6000. we will see how much that holds especially when you have tech slipping into the red. nasdaq down 3/10 of a percent. small caps are your winter and then some. russell 2000 higher by 1.5%.

you have seen that most clearly in the index. and bitcoin, what do you do with bitcoin except by it? bitcoin above $84,000 a coin just today up 5.6%. that is your broad macro smashup -- macro snapshot should abigail: with the bitcoin rally, not surprisingly we have the crypto space taking off. take a look at merrill holdings up 23%. right hip, coinbase and microstrategy up 18% or more. investors want in ahead of the trump administration, what the actual policy could be come a that will be pro crypto. buying the rumor so to speak. it will be interesting what the news will actually be. as for the health care space, this is related to president-elect trump. we will see that the shares of

cigna are trading higher. this as the shares of humana are lower. cigna up 7.7%. they made an announcement saying the possible deal talk but had been happening between these two companies for a second time, they are going stand alone. they have different criteria for m and a. they also want to focus on buying back their shares. it is worth noting humana has a lot of the medicare medicaid business. a trumpet administration maybe negative for it. it seems as though that could be one reason why cigna is stepping away. finally, this is your favorite today. monday.com. may be more matt miller's favorite. down 16%. the worst day going back at 2022 . just in line after being up more than 70% into today, somewhat priced to perfection. stock down sharply, a monday slump.

katie: monday.com with a case of the mondays. a lot of bullishness around equities. the bears are still out there. recent guest on bloomberg tv have warned caution might needed -- might be needed. >> markets seem to be joyful right now. one would think the trumpet administration would want to continue that environment. it is not surprising markets are going ahead and running with the trump trade. there is a lot of information we have two dissect going forward to see what does this mean. >> every trump trade is in vacuum to itself. they are all going to be winners. that is a big mistake. the index is expensive. there are a lot of stocks that are not as expensive. that is why you have to be selective and not get wrapped up chasing this euphoria we have seen in the past week. katie: joining us with more on these markets, let's welcome in ira jersey from bloomberg

intelligence on the right side of things and ethan debit, chief investment officer at monette up. it has been almost a week since the election. we got a decision much quicker than a lot of people anticipated. you are seeing the follow-through in markets. i am surprised to see the russell 2000 up another 1.5% today alone. how much more momentum is there when you think about the broad lift we are seeing to risk assets? ira: it is a slow process of digestion. it did not all happen in one day. there was trepidation over whether they would be uncertainty around the results. it proved there was not. we have seen strong promises made, promises kept philosophy on the trump transition team and strongly worded video so it seems many of those policies are going to come into effect. investors are starting to believe what they hear. i'm not sure i agree with the

previous guest who's adjusted it was happening in a vacuum. i see these trades as being tightly knitted together. is it a zero-sum game? not within the u.s. stock market. maybe relative to non-us assets. katie: it's about that knitting together because you are seeing tech kind of falter here. especially relative to its past several years of performance. you are seeing health care, financials, small caps catch a bid. it sounds like what you are seeing is this is all interconnected. aoifinn: we have seen a broadening in market support for some time now. that did not move with any of the market news. in terms of the tax breaks coming and deregulation coming, it bodes well for some of the other areas of the market. they will not impacted by tariffs. that is positive for them. i see that as a unified trade. as far as why is tech faltering, some of that is going to be technical factors. profit taking, a shift into more

agile currencies. equally, a little uncertainty as the rhetoric is mixed in terms of raking up some of the larger companies and we don't know where that is going to end up. katie: ira, i promise i'm going to come to you. you think about the story in stock markets. . it has been up into the right i cannot say the same thing when it comes to 10 year yields. we got close to 4.5% on the 10-year treasury yield last week. now we are down to 4:30 p.m. all this volatility being expressed in the long end of the curve, how do you see this developing in the weeks and months ahead? ira: it does come down to actually what programs in terms of debt and deficits a new trump administration is going to progress. during his first term, he lowered taxes and you did not see any kind of spending cuts to offset those. deficits increased every single year of his tenure. i'm taking covid out of that.

i'm saying pre-covid because covid was a different story. this time you -- there are people who think the trump administration and the republicans holding congress are going to cut spending along with doing tax cuts and other things they expect. that is not obvious to me they are going to do that. the market is on edge there is going to be a strong deficit going forward. look at last week's 30 year bond auction the best bond auction since 2000 team and that -- since 2013 and that suggests there's some kind of optimism and demand for treasury securities. katie: that is such a great point. it was last week i asked you i don't know if it was on air or off. where the bond vigilantes are. did they all retire? if you like these auctions are getting is it is good proof there are people who want to buy bonds right now. ira: at 4.525%, that -- at 4.5

to 5%, that meets expectations large institutional investors have. there will be some demand for 30 year debt and longer when yields get up to those levels. will that last forever? no. there does need to be a cap on how much debt can be issued. katie: i'm curious to hear how you are thinking about the bond market. with all the gyrations we have seen in the 10 year treasury yield, it does not seem like it has made any dent when it comes to the risk asset rally we are seeing in the stock market. you think it will at a certain point? aoifinn: right now it is quite divorced from the equity market momentum. a lot more concern and worry in evidenced from of the income side. not only do we see that pattern around the world but we have noticed it for the last 18 months. it is making the bond investor a little more jittery in terms of the buy and hold strategy.

we know while cash yield still looking attractive, it is going to be phono compared to the equity market rallies reaching new highs. i would say we are not going to see investors fighting out of bonds. . they're going to look for risk on. they need to have a strong stomach for it. katie: you make a great point at least for right now it does not look like these asset classes are necessarily talking to each other. i was having a conversation with bob michele from jp morgan shape last week he said five percent could be a live on the 10 year treasury where you start to see some pain. some other big shots have echoed that sentiment. walk us through the game plan that would take us to 5% on the 10-year treasury yield. it look like we were sort of building the momentum to get there. may be calming down now. ira: they would have to initially come from economic fundamentals being stronger than what we have seen so far.

if you wind up with a couple prints of higher nonfarm payroll numbers as well as spending continuing to be robust and any policies out of the trump administration that might be viewed aionary, all of those things might increase treasury yields substantially. what you have not seen is if swaps on cpi and breakevens on treasury inflation protected security. the markets view of inflation expectations. those have only gone up a couple basis points. that has not been the driver of all of this. it has been real yields which implies to me that you are looking at fed policy and supply as the two main drivers and factors driving this. that can only go so far without an uptick on inflation or inflation expectations. . i suspect now we are at an equilibrium finding a range. to break out of that range and above 4.5% to five you're going

to have to wait until the first quarter of next year. katie: great stuff. appreciate you taking the time. ira jersey with bloomberg intelligence and aoifinn devitt. coming up we turn to assets. how much momentum does this trade behind it as we approach a full week since the u.s. presidential election? this is bloomberg. ♪

katie: welcome back to bloomberg markets. time now for the stock of the

hour. we have several stocks today and they are all crypto flavored. coinbase, marathon, microstrategy soaring as bitcoin hovers close to $85,000. this increased optimism comes since donald trump won the election last week with investors anticipating more acceptance of crypto in the white house. we are joined by mike regan. he leads crypto coverage for bloomberg news. increased acceptance. crypto had a great election. mike: acceptance might even be too weak of a word. if you go back to trump's speech at the bitcoin conference in nashville in july, that is when he said he wants to create a strategic stockpile of bitcoin. what does that mean? it would be like the strategic petroleum reserve. instead of oil, you would be holding bitcoin. what is interesting about that

is the day before trump spoke, rfk jr. came and spoke. he said i understand trump is going to announced plans to buy one million bitcoin. talking lady $5 billion worth of bitcoin at these prices. trump never actually made that promise in his speech. he wants to create stockpile. it will start with bitcoin that has been seized by the government already. but the senator from wyoming came after him with a bill to do just of that. to buy one million bitcoin for this reserve. there is a deliverable from trump. is that a plan he is going to push to have the government spend at today's prices 85, 90 billion in bitcoin? that i think is what is the main driver of the optimism from trump. there is plenty of other trump adjacent themes that could make people bullish on crypto. if there are tasks -- if there

are tax cuts coming. he promised to hire regulators who are real fans of crypto. not the adversaries they had in the prior administration. there are reasons to be bullish. that is the big question mark. will trump go so far as to suggest the u.s. should buy one million bitcoin for this reserve? it seems like the market is pricing in a pretty good chance that will happen. it would need congressional approval but if you look at the last election, this pack was so successful with their spending. katie: what needs to happen to make a bitcoin reserve a reality? congressional approval. the crypto community has a lot of people who love crypto in congress. mike: the sort of the moral of the last election was it is pretty risky for a politician to be anti-crypto. this industry was the biggest

corporate spender on the congressional campaign. something like $130 million. their win loss record, it was pretty good. candidates that the pac backed tended to win all of their elections. money talks in d.c. i one point it would have an far-fetched to imagine the government creating a strategic bitcoin reserve. if it is something trump wants and it seems like something that is theoretically feasible within the congress right now, trump has a long list of priorities. where that one falls and the timing of it, people start questioning that going into 2025. it is hard to find anyone who is bearish on bitcoin because of these tailwinds. katie: you head up crypto coverage for bloomberg news. i would have to imagine your team is super busy.

now we are through the election, we know the makeup of congress what is top of mind on the desk? can trump force out gary gensler if you wants and put in crypto friendly sec chair? that is something we are curious to find out. katie: a big open question. the fate of gary gensler. that is mike regan, team leader for crypto coverage at bloomberg news. crypto is one part of trump's proposed policies. we are looking at how companies are bracing for a new era of trump tariffs. national retail federation president and ceo matthew shea joins us next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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katie:katie: this is bloomberg markets. there is a lot of concern over what possible trump tariffs could mean for the u.s. economy. here is what guests on bloomberg have had to say just this morning. >> tariffs will be on very quickly i'm expecting. >> what is going to be market negative if trump does in his the two right away these tariffs, he is very aggressive about it. >> i hope he walks away from apart -- from across the board tariffs. >> americans are supportive of trump's agenda on tariffs. >> if we get tariffs, to the extent the administration is talking about, 10 to 20% and upwards of 60% for china and we do get some of the immediate retaliation, we do wind up with stagflation. >> the market is taking trump at his word he is going to try to do something. if we have a massive tariff structure, it is going to hurt parts of the economy. >> there is a reason a number of business executives called to

congratulate trump a vested interest in trying to reduce the number of proposed tariffs. katie: joining us with more i'm pleased to say we have matthew shay, president and ceo of the national retail federation. research has found america could lose between 46 and $78 billion if these new tariffs on imports to the u.s. are implemented. set the scene for us. what industries would be hit hardest potentially? matthew: nice to be with you. the study you referenced is one we released last week and it was a limited study. it looked at six categories of goods he would find in every household in america. footwear and apparel of household appliances and a number of others to give a sense of what would happen even on that limited set of imported goods. the findings were very dramatic as you would expect.

we import many of those from countries outside the united states. our estimates were these prices would increase sufficiently. that customers would lose up to $80 billion of annual spending power. . there been other studies that this would cost between 2500 and as much as $7,000 per household per year. very significant consequences if the president elect goes through with the kinds of things he said about increasing mandatory tariff on all imported goods. raising goods, imported goods on china tariffs as much as 60%. really dramatic consequences for american households. katie: you think about the ceos of a lot of these companies. a lot of them were around in 2016 and 2018. is there a roadmap some of these affected industries, the c-suite has for this potential tariff wave? matthew: one thing we have to remember is this is a dynamic environment already. it has been a very dynamic environment for the last decade.

as the economy in china has evolved over the last 15 to 20 years, there consumers have moved into the middle class. costs have increased. retailers and other importers were working to move supply chains out of china because of increased labor costs and find other markets to produce those goods for importing into countries like the u.s. retailers and importers have not been standing still. that was a process ongoing even before the 2018 round of tariffs imposed by the last trump administration. the biden administration the only did not reduce those tariffs, the increased tariffs on almost 20 categories of goods. . this is something we all dealing with. you add in the pandemic supply chain inflation. retailers are always in for ways to diversify their supply chain and bring better value to customers. i'm curious what recent history tells us about how these tariffs

typically trickle through to the u.s. consumer. you think about importers paying these higher prices. do they typically pass them on? matthew: absolutely. a tariff is a tax on the importer which get passed on, users or consumers and the price of the input good. we know with this environment with high inflation, with consumers focused on value and price, retailers and others will not have any choice but to pass on those cost increases in raise prices. that is going to be inflationary. it is going to be regressive. it is going to hurt families making under $50,000 a year and it will slow our economy's growth. katie: hope to have you back again soon. interesting research and perspective you bring. that is matthew shay. he is the ceo of the national retail association. that does it for bloomberg markets. i'm katie greifeld and this is bloomberg. ♪

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announcer: from the world of politics to the world of business, this is "balance of power." ♪ live from washington, d.c. ♪ joe: the transition has begun.

welcome to the foster shirt and politics as we wait to learn the balance of power on capitol hill. the incoming trump administration is busy filling out a future cabinet. coming up this hour, and important conversation with the president of the heritage foundation, the force behind project 2025, and the author of a new book called "dawn's early light." he joins us. and we have analysis from our political panel, jeanne sheehan zaino, bloomberg politics contributor alongside republican strategist lester munson from bgr group. but first we go to wall street. charlie pellett. charlie: a good day from new york. the s&p trading little changed, giving up earlier gains, at barely one point. the dow up 113, 0 .7%. nasdaq composite index giving up earlier gains,