>> good morning. i am tom mackenzie in london. these are the stories that set your agenda. samsung jumps after a buyback.

chinese equities gain on signs of policy support. tension at the treasury as candidates vie for the top job in donald trump's new administration. we will bring you the latest in that search. plus, in a major change of policy, the u.s. gives ukraine the green light to use long-range missiles to try to strike limited targets inside russia. ♪ ♪ tom: good morning. happy monday. european futures pointing to modest gains, pointing up by 0.1%. four straight weeks of losses for european stocks. what is the next catalyst for the european equity market and are we starting to turn the corner on the downside pressure? u.s. futures looking to add as well, up 0.3% after a week of

losses for the s&p and nasdaq. the s&p dropped by 2% after the close on friday. stronger economic data again leading to concerns about how far this federal reserve can go. ftse 100 point up about 13 -- 0.3%. you saw the 10 year crossing 5% at one point on friday before the dip buys came back in. now you are back into 443, having crossed the 4.50 level friday. japanese yen in focus after the governor suggested caution as to whether or not he will hike in december. 154. a little bit of softness. brent, $71 a barrel. goldman sachs saying the yellow metal could hit $3000 by the end of next year on central bank

buying and rate cuts as well. let's cross over to singapore and avril hong. what is standing out to you this morning? avril: it is interesting how chinese stocks, which earlier in the day clocked gains by as much as 1% plus plus. it speaks to this bearish move after downgrades from the likes of morgan stanley and goldman. this is coming on a day where south korea has really outperformed, and this is as you alluded to thanks to samsung a 7 billion dollars share buyback plan which surprised investors. i wanted to highlight, it is coming on a day when the yen weakness is not helping the nikkei at all. we are seeing the pharmaceutical stocks today tracking the declines in their u.s. peers. the other stocks we are keeping a close eye on today is the asia chipmakers because they have been underperforming since the u.s. election on concern of

trump's tariffs. we are watching this week if they get a boost on nvidia's earnings. we will take a closer look at dollar-yen, because you know how the japanese currency managed to gain ground friday once investors got wind that the governor will speak today. instead, he chose today, speaking twice, to be cautious, not giving anything away in terms of the hike timing. more recent comments in the past hour or so, he said they would take the appropriate december decision based on the data. to some, this speaks and sounds like a boj governor kicking the can down the road in terms of signaling when the next hike will be. this sets the stage for a lot of volatility on dollar-yet. remember for the fed, the decision is still a coin toss. take a look at this chart as we break through what we are seeing in china, those more bearish outbreaks.

we originally saw the gain in chinese stocks as traders weigh these regulator concerns and comments for how listed companies should help to boost valuations. that was a bit of a mood lifter. that contributed to a climb earlier in the session from the comments from the chinese president, offering an olive branch to donald trump. this might explain what we saw earlier today a bit more. as we saw the selloff last week, we saw open -- open interest climbing. perhaps unsurprising we saw this climb today, especially given how chinese stocks are about 15% down from the peaks we saw in october. tom: avril hong with a deep dive on the asian markets, thank you. to the macro questions around the fed, because boston fed president susan collins says a fed rate cut could still happen next month, but emphasized the

final decision will be guided by incoming data. >> i think we are well-positioned. i certainly would not take another ease in december off the table, but we are not on a preset path. we will have to look carefully at the data and see what makes sense when we get to december 18. >> let's bring in our markets reporter for the analysis. where do we stand? is december still a tossup? >> we have yet to hear from a fed official that they are going for a pause. we heard her say that it will be dependent on the data. when we look at pricing for december, we have 6.5 basis points priced in that rate meeting in december. january is just eight basis points. the market does think one of the next two meetings will be a pause from the federal reserve, whether it is december or january might be up to the data.

we did have u.s. retail sales on friday that came a bit stronger than expectations, especially when you looked at the revisions to prior months. it is a bit quiet on the data front. we will have to wait until friday until we get the global flash of pmi's. friday's session was interesting in terms of price action. the 10 year yield hit 4.5% in friday's late session, but then rallied strongly off of that, posing some questions on whether those were buyers emerging at that 4.5% level when it comes to the u.s. 10 year yields. the equity market on friday was plain sour. we had a big slide when it came to the tech heavy nasdaq and the s&p 500. let's take a look at how the s&p 500 has fared since the election. we have erased now half of those gains since the election trade. we have now fallen nearly 3%

since all-time highs when it comes to that s&p 500 future. we do have nvidia reporting. that can be the next guide forward for the equity market. but perhaps some of this jitterness coming from the fact that we have yet to hear a treasury secretary or trade secretary come from the trip -- come from the trump administration. that will be key because we are eyeing how strong those tariffs will be when trump takes the presidency in january. tom: setting is perfectly for the next segment, nodding to what is happening on what -- on who will be the next secretary of state. the fight over donald trump's chief policy maker is heating up. executives push the president elect choose their professional -- their preferred candidates. let's bring in kriti gupta. where do we stand?

are we any closer to knowing who will be the next treasury secretary? kriti: it feels like we just got out of a neck and neck race and here we have another one when it comes to treasury secretary. we are not closer because there seems to be a bit of pushback from the insiders who know president-elect trump super well. it did feel like scott bessette would be the no-brainer choice, but that has been superseded by howard lubbock and tariffs. those are not the only players in the race to become the next treasury secretary. there is robert lighthizer, bill haggerty, a senator out of tennessee, and even mark rowen, the ceo of apollo. it is important to keep in mind what the treasury secretary does. $28 trillion of a treasuries market will be a key one. economic sanctions, in terms of russia and potentially china, other players in the middle

east. tax policy. the irs is trying to decrease taxes. they are also -- also fifth in line for the succession story. it is helpful to know who has that spot. there is a lot going on in terms of the treasury picked. at the end of the day, elon musk is a big player in all of those. he is tweeting out that his view is a business as usual choice, whereas howard lutnick will be change. tom: maybe he can move it when it comes to treasury secretary. i didn't know about the fifth in line. that is interesting. when it comes to the energy secretary, it is a big question mark over who will be the secretary. but we have clarity in terms of the nomination process. kriti: christopher wright is the liberty energy founder and ceo. it is important to keep everyone's eye on why this is important. some of the criticism is he is

not qualified to do this job even though he has operated in the energy sector, because the energy secretary is not only in charge of domestic policies, they are in charge of sanctions when it comes to some of the energy, maintaining americans' nuclear warheads. lng projects and the strategic petroleum reserve. that is where the criticism comes that maybe this is not the correct fit, especially at a time when lng exports are increasing to europe, and that will be a key part of his agenda. it has also been a key piece of the campaign trail for president trump. we had him on two years ago. take a listen to what he had to say. >> i am not here to protect market share for oil and gas. i am just here to be honest. but we should do credible things, mostly driven by market forces. but shoveling subsidies to wind and solar who are 3% of global energy is not going to

meaningfully change greenhouse gas emissions. but it will drive prices up. kriti: subsidies to things like renewables, wind and solar, he is not a fan of. something in line with president-elect trump, who has turned his tune on solar. when it comes to the underperformance in europe for some of the wind players, this may not be the most bullish pick. tom: the oil industry unofficially and by other means has received subsidies as well historically. kriti gupta with analysis in terms of some of these picks. the nominee, the candidates coming through. there are still question marks over the treasury secretary. the u.s. has lifted restrictions on ukraine's use of some long-range western made weapons to strike military targets inside russia. president putin's forces launched a 120 missile barrage

at ukraine over the weekend, striking energy infrastructure. is the lifting of these restrictions coming too late? ukraine has pushed for this for months. finally it seems they have gotten it over the line. >> that is the question people are going to be asking repeatedly in the weeks to come as ukraine starts to put this system to use, or we expect it to put it to use, attacking targets further inside russia, perhaps trying to protect the kursk region that troops took earlier this year. it is one of these examples of ukraine having pushed for use of a weapons system. the u.s. and the west pushing back on that for months and months, and finally relenting. what this could do for ukraine is help it secure that kursk region, deal more damage to russia ahead of what could be true stocks in the coming year.

ukraine would like to have whatever leverage it can over russia if truce talks are.brought forward they would potentially want to trade their territory they hold in russia for territory that russia holds within ukraine's boundaries. we will see when they can put this to use, how quickly, but it could be something that affects this conflict on the margins, for sure. tom: at a time when our own recordings are suggesting -- our own reportings are suggesting a potential ending to this war. where does that pressure lie at this point? >> certainly, donald trump is sworn in as the 47th president nine weeks from today, so that is a deadline that ukraine and all its allies have very high in their minds. we know that german chancellor olaf scholz spoke with russia's vladimir putin over the weekend. that was the first high-level

communication between the two and between u.s. allies in almost two years. we know that in south america, turkish president erdogan is expected to put forward some kind of truce proposal that we believe would largely leave russian forces with the territory they currently hold. it might shift it to a demilitarized zone, but it would take some of the territory away from ukraine. there is mounting pressure on ukraine to bring about some kind of a conclusion to this conflict. it is not clear whether vladimir putin will go along with that. but with donald trump taking office in nine weeks, there is a sense that the game is changing very quickly. tom: bill faries, thank you very much for the latest. coming up, china's xi jinping tells president biden he is ready to work with donald trump to improve the relationship

between the world's biggest economies. but a warning as well over decoupling and his red lines. we get the latest next. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back. world leaders are gathering in rio de janeiro this week for the g20 summit. they are expected to show unity on climate action and global trade rules, two areas threatened by u.s. president-elect donald trump. our reporter has more from radio. -- from rio. >> on the formal agenda for this summit are debates about climate change and sustainability, global trade, and development financing. there will also be hard conversations about conflicts around the world, including those in the middle east and ukraine. russian president vladimir putin declined to come to the summit, with volodymyr zelenskyy not

invited to attend. the summit comes at the time when the winds are starting to change when it comes to geopolitics and the global economy. the summit comes on the heels of another gathering of world leaders in lima, peru, the apec summit. president biden sat down with xi jinping for a meeting. >> we have not always agreed, but our conversations have always been candid and always been frank. we have never kidded one another. we have leveled with one another. >> those two leaders last spoke in april by phone. president biden used this opportunity to stress how much the relationship has improved. there is now open communication between washington and beijing after four frosty years when trump was in the white house. of course, trump is headed back to power, and the uncertainty of what that means will loom large over the summit in peru, just as it looms over this one in rio de janeiro. president xi stressed is in both countries' interest to have a

good relationship but china would not be afraid to fight back if the u.s. cross redlines. -- if the u.s. crossed redlines. tom: chinese leader xi jinping has told president biden he is ready to work with donald trump to improve the relationship between the world's biggest economies, but xi also used the meeting to lay out a warning on china's redlines. our reporter joins us now with the details. what are those red lines that xi jinping outlined for president biden and the team? what does it tell us about how this relationship is likely to evolve going forward? >> the four redlines were laid out at this meeting over the weekend between biden and xi at a pack. -- at apec. these are things we have heard between the two countries before. but this time, it acts as more of a warning for incoming

president donald trump then anything else. those four redlines include do not undermine china's economy, do not interfere with the party, do not interfere when it comes to trying to bring democracy, and finally, and perhaps the most contentious, stay away from the taiwan issue. i can tell you, i was at an event last week in hong kong, and the ambassadors for china and the u.s. spoke, and it was the exact same message. you can tell from those four redlines and the u.s. actions in the previous four years and support for taiwan that these are going to continue being very tense, especially when you have an incoming president who has announced 60% tariffs on china, as well as flat tariffs on the rest of the world. of course, trump is not going to be at the g20. however, the news reports are going to be coming out and this is something a lot of markets and economists will obviously be looking for.

in fact, they will be looking at the g20 but they might also be focused on twitter and true social. tom: yeah, indeed. he will not be there but he will loom large, as you suggest. on the g20, just a little more detail in terms of how the markets and economists are thinking about what could come out of that g20, or at least what the focus will be in those meetings. >> the key issues, china-u.s. geopolitics, although trump will not be there. there will be a lot of other world leaders. there will be a lot of meetings. this is the perfect chance for them to reassess things, perhaps talk about trade deals going forward and the flow of trade going forward because these tariffs could upend trade again as we saw in 2018 and 2019. they are also going to want to talk about ukraine and russia, as we heard from bill. tensions are flaring up again. we had 200 rockets fired over the weekend into ukraine.

it has been 1000 days of this, and leaders are lining up ahead of trump to find some way to concede or recognize that ukraine must potentially make some concessions here. geopolitics is really looming large. it has been really chaotic for economists and analysts to try to predict what is next in these crucial two months or nine weeks ahead of the inauguration. what that has meant in my discussions with everyone has been a lot more modeling, a lot more watching of social media, and a lot more scenario analysis. if there's a 60% tariffs, what does that mean? if there's 20% tariffs, what does that mean? so far, i can tell you it is negative for global growth. as for trump's policies on taxes versus tariffs, the gain in the u.s. economy will be canceled out by those levees. this whole idea of the economy and geopolitics, you can expect

to see more from the g20 even from apec. tom: gaming out these different scenarios with a lack of clarity as to how some of these policies will unwind. thank you for the context. on the back of apec, as we look to g20. later, we will head over to germany where the greens have picked the economy minister to lead them in the snap election that takes place early next year. more on that shortly. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> welcome back. some other stories making the news this monday. a stabbing attack left eight people dead in the chinese province saturday. it is the country's second mass

killing in a week. the incident happened at a vocational institute of arts and technology. a 21-year-old man has confessed to the crime, with officials saying he was discontented with the school over a graduation matter and internship pay. hezbollah has confirmed its media chief was killed in an israeli airstrike in central beirut. it marks the latest in a series of killing of top has blood leaders -- top hezbollah leaders. a second separate strike killed two people and injured 13 others. the tech focus platform. the information is reporting nvidia has asked suppliers to change the design of the server racks for black wells graphics processing because of overheating. a spokesperson for nvidia declined to comment on whether the company has finalized the

blackwell rack designs. samsung has surged off of a buyback plan. today's share price jumped after a decline over the year amid concerns around the electronic giant's memory chip business falling behind in the ai markets. coming up, why france is scrambling to block a key eu trade deal with latin america as the eu braces for a second trump term. we bring you the details on that story, the implications for europe's future trade with that part of the world. whether or not france can block it. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ let's go boys. the way that i approach work, post fatherhood, has really been trying to understand the generation that we're building devices for. here in the comcast family, we're building an integrated in-home wifi solution for millions of families, like my own. connectivity is a big part of my boys' lives.

it brings people together in meaningful ways. ♪ ♪

tom: good morning. these are the stories that set your agenda. samsung jumps after they say they will buy back more than $7 billion of stock. in china, fresh signs of policy support failed to boost equities. tensions over trump's treasury picked infighting slows the decision on who will get the top job in the new administration. and in a major change of policy the u.s. gives ukraine the green light to use long-range missiles to strike limited targets inside russia. the markets looking for a move higher. with modest gains coming through in european futures after four straight weeks of losses for european stocks so pushing higher but not with much conviction.

and commodities getting a lift, which could help the minors in the u.k.. s&p futures looking to add .3%. in the s&p has lost about half of the postelection gains we have seen for that major index with nasdaq 100 futures falling 2%. let's flip the board and lacrosse asset. part of the story around the selloff on equities friday stateside was down to high yields, particularly the 10 year reaching or .5% for the debts reaching 4.5% -- reaching 4.5% for the first time in a while. a little bit of weakness coming through in the yen. the governor of the bank of japan saying he remains data dependent, putting a question mark over whether they do indeed hike. $71 a barrel on brent and gold

at 2500. goldman sachs saying go for gold. with expectations it could hit $3000 by the end of 2025. germany's greens have picked the economy minister to lead them into february's election support for olaf scholz's's party weakens further. some members of the spd would prefer the defense minister to lead the campaign. let's bring in all crook. how much support does he have at this point? >> it's a question that is evolving quickly. this is the situation if you're thinking about your prospects going into this election. you have an incumbent chancellor candidate with a lot of prominence leading the government. they may be a huge disadvantage because an unpopular candidate

and has an unpopular coalition government the elapsed. you have one of the most popular politicians in the form of boris pistorius who has been defense minister but for the time being the support has been behind olaf scholz. you see the pole across the country with engine worm any -- within germany. he's favored over olaf scholz. this will come to a head on january 11 when they will formally elect and choose who they will put up as the candidate but you have to think about how potentially this played out in the u.s. where you had an incumbent candidate for the democrats in the form of biden who held on arguably for two along and then put in harris at the last minute. so there will be conversations about this going forward and i would say there's a nonzero chance olaf scholz is not the candidate going into the selection. >> a nonzero chance.

maybe some mirror imaging of u.s. politics in germany. maybe the clock is ticking good this is a curveball that seems to have come out of nowhere. but maybe this was planned and a long time in the works but he's picking up the phone and putting a call through to putin. what was behind that? >> we broke the story on friday at bloomberg and it came out of the blue to many people. and judging from the reaction we got from other leaders it did not take everybody by complete surprise. they said this basically opens pandora's box but the question is this. he has shied away from being a sort of main character on the global stage and is he really being a protagonist good where has he been for the last 2.5 years? he says he will remain in contacted obviously there's the context of the election going on and he has been trying to cast himself as a non-escalatory figure versus frederick mertz who has been saying we should

send long-range weapons so they can use them freely but it speaks to the sort of contradiction that exists in trying to appraise how to deal with russia with the trump presidency on the horizon. europeans have consistently said there will be no decisions made yet on the other it may be forced out of their hands and they are facing the reality that if they don't reengage with putin they may not be in the conversation when trump comes into office and that is the line olaf scholz has been trying to walk though it's not clear why he is the right person to have that conversation. tom: fascinating. maybe european leaders wanting to be at the table. oliver crook, thank you very much indeed in terms of the political ramifications of all this rippling through germany, and talking about what's happening in terms of european leaders. the impact of a second trump presidency on world trade will lead agendas at the g20 and aipac. france is hoping to persuade

polling in joining forces to block a trade deal between the european union and latin america's bloc. >> it does not respect level playing field when it comes to trade norms, for agriculture, it's not about being against trade but making sure we have a level playing field and that when we impose norms and standards ourselves than our trade partners impose the same on themselves because otherwise we are shooting ourselves in the foot. so as such it is not acceptable and that's the case we are making to our partners. >> so the french position from one minister appeared let's get more from bloomberg economics. why is this deal important for the european union and that my right thinking this is been 25 years in the making? >> indeed. it's been a long negotiation and

when you look at the numbers we have show they do not stand to benefit hugely from this deal but the deal has a very strong geopolitical importance. we know the european union is a very open economy. right now they are facing tensions on one front, the chinese front, because of the imposition of tariffs on vehicles coming from china and is soon to face tensions on another front due to the election of donald trump so i think cutting this deal is important to show that it can still pursue free trade deals. the second issue is that china is increasing its food print in latin america and the european union is pursuing a project of de-risking from china and it is

something the european union needs so cutting the steel is important for those reasons to make sure it can pursue free trade and have access to things in terms of critical minerals could >> so why is france seemingly intent on trying to block this deal? >> i have one word for you and that is firms. half of french people don't know what the deal is. normally people in their daily lives don't care about these types of issues could however, farmers do and they are a powerful constituency. they are able to mobilize quickly and strongly and put the tractors on the roads and to block roads and to be a headache for the government so that is the primary reason. farmers will tell you that despite the fact that some standard -- some sectors of farming stand to benefit some sectors will be badly hurt. the deal will not allow higher

imports of high quality beat, which would hit french farmers. the government is seeing these concerns and are worried we will have protests like the one that happened at the beginning of this year and hence that is why the government is pushing back and trying to build a coalition in order to block the deal. >> excellent context from our bloomberg economics team on the implications of this trade deal and the opposition to it coming through from france. we heard from the french eu minister talking about the french case for why they are taking an opposite or opposing line on this deal. and that's who we heard from. now to spain and the banking sector because santander has been bolstering its investment bank with a hiring spree that includes dozens of former credit suisse staff. the new recruits and their transactions are starting to reshape the lending giant. roderigo joins us for more.

how big is this expansion of the investment bank at santander and how consequential is this for the sector? >> it is big by many standards. more than 200 bankers over the last couple years, the number of staff the investment bank went up from 900 to 1300 over the last 18 months. and the numbers of risktakers who earn has also more than doubled over the last three years so the numbers show that there is a lot going on. they are still reporting the pretax loss in that unit, largely because of the costs but the bigger question and the answer to that is its big because there's a big aspiration to be a heavyweight within what they call the second tier of investment banks so they will not try to steal many clients from jp morgan but they will try

to steal a few. they want to have a presence and be a recognized name with them wall street investment banking. >> to your understanding, how realistic is that aspiration for santander and is this investment and push paying off? >> they are starting to get into business lines where they were not present. their main aspiration is that we will -- is that they will be able to serve american clients in the same way they are able to serve their big corporate clients in brazil and europe mainly and so they want to be able to do that because they say that is something they were lacking. in that sense it seems like it is something doable. what we are seeing as well is that they are getting into sectors where they never really had a presence, namely, leverage finance where they had 21 deals last year and this year they have already done 110 so clearly

there is a lot of space to grow and they are also aiming at areas where they already have expertise abroad, energy transition, infrastructure, energy in general is where they think they can make a difference so there is an element of realism but obviously a long track record of european banks not doing well and they want to get into american investment banking so there is a touch of i would not say skepticism but caution. >> it will be fascinating to watch given those renewed ambitions put roderigo with the details well worth reading on the terminal and on bloomberg.com. now some other stories making the news. asking prices for u.k. houses fell in november more than usual after the budget disappointed buyers and affordability remains stretched. according to right move the average price of a home put up

for sale fell 1.4%, almost double the november average. firms backed by the governments of france and germany have invested in a startup to build alternatives for elon musk's dragon space capsule. the company says it's completed its largest funding round, raising $160 million from investors. it's looking to further develop a modular and reusable space capsule. coming up, treasuries in a two-month slump as investors prepare for a donald trump return to the white house. the market analysis and expert insights. that's next >> >> >> -- that's next. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe.

the u.s. treasury market has seen a two month slump. traders prepare for donald trump's return and potential slower rate cuts from the fed. let's bring in the global head of public markets to think about how these bond markets may shape up and where to find some value within credit. great to have you joining us. i want to start with the here and now. we saw the 10 year reaching 4.5% friday, stronger economic data and seemingly some debt buyers coming in what to the moves signal to you about the trajectory for these markets and how far the bond selloff go? >> good morning. for a large part of the market it is a level where we find support so that is definitely something to consider,

especially as a lot of the trading now has taken place by arbitrators. but when you look at fundamentals, there's a concern that they may not be in the upper range so we have a concern that we see a further steepening of the curve with shortened -- the short end being less supported but still supported. and we expect there to be further rate cuts but when you go further out with the uncertainty with what they are bringing, we see there to be room for global volatility. and that is an in terms of the changes of immigration statuses and how it benefits inflation but also the second round effect , how that impact on growth made

in further down could affect the treasury market so we expect more volatility and from then what level do e need to center around? tom: the continued uncertainty over the shape and scale of these policies the incoming trump administration will be enacting. you still see further cuts for the fed, as you were saying. do they go in december? i think markets are pricing in two rate cuts between now and june. and how do you see this moving forward in terms of the cycle of cuts from this fed? >> the fed and all central banks have stepped away from giving forward guidance and that makes a lot of sense because you want

to prepare for what's in front of you so i think the fed is very much assessing the policies are expected to shape. and we can already see by appointments that is full steam ahead with regard to the new policies coming into place so based on that i would say that the fed will be carefully treading with those rate cuts priced and currently by the market. it's probably a sensible thing because we will need to see how the appointments are shaping up but we will definitely see that there is full confidence by the general administration and it has big plans so just based on that i think it is well priced to say no more than two cuts for the next 7, 8 months. >> possibly no more than two

cuts for the fed. we are potentially looking at a divergent policy response from the ecb on one side and the fed on the other and potentially more dovish ecb. what does that mean for corporate credit in europe? are you finding value there and if so where? >> when we look at how credit has performed in europe and in the u.s. both have performed well and european spreads have caught up with u.s. spreads and more recently they have emerged a little bit again so we continue to see value and when you look at the constituencies, especially on the investment-grade side, it's a well diversified asset class. so in that regard you can find good value and you can diversify both geographically and in terms of sectors so we do think it's

an important part of the global portfolio. you have european credit in there and you get paid for the additional risk. similar to what we just talked about with regard to interest-rate duration, we would suggest not to take too much duration for two reasons. one is often people talk about credit spreads being very tight but when you do a detailed analysis the tightness comes in the long end from yield buyers and so we would suggest a better place would be to be in the short end of the curve, where you get higher spreads, especially in europe and you are more insulated against potential issues. >> tatyana, thank you on the opportunities when it comes to investment grade credit in

europe and a view that may be 4.5% is not the upper range for yields in the u.s. thank you as ever for the analysis. plenty more coming up. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ rything. but i couldn't find pilates anywhere. so i started my own studio. and with the right help, i can make this place i love even better. earn up to 5% cash back on business essentials with the chase ink business cash card from chase for business.

>> i think we are going to be looking at rates coming down over the next year along the lines of what the dot plot said so i still think we have a long way to go down with rates. and there is some dispute about what is the neutral rate at which we will settle down if there's disagreement about that that we don't just charge right to it, that we slow the pace as we get toward it. tom: austin goolsby on his views around where the neutral rate is, expectations that there will be further cuts but how far and

faster means a question for the markets. where the fed goes impacts what's happening in terms of japan, the japanese yen, the boj, and we are hearing cautionary comments from governor yi way to on whether december is in play. markets expected something more hawkish. a little bit of softness in the japanese yen. here's some analysis in terms of where it's moved in terms of the moving average of 151, now at 154. this is down to rate differentials. this is a big play. 0.25% in japan. the rate differential is of course at those elevated levels. there's a forecast that the yen actually gets to 130, so it strengthens through next year as the rate differentials start to ease. others have different views, 130, 140, but the story has been the softness in the japanese yen. there's expectations that have been faded out as far as out for

the fed will go. nvidia is the big earnings story of the week. details crossing stateside on wednesday. this detail coming through, the analysis from dan curtis from our team, who crunches the numbers for us, showing there's a disconnect when it comes to nvidia earnings and how the s&p performs historically. downside came through august 2024. it dropped 6.4%. the s&p was flat. you can see the diversions going through. the way that stopper firms -- that stopper forms not necessarily indicative of where the s&p 500 lands as well. we have analysis coming up through the next show as well. the opening trade is up next with a host of great guests. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

it's our son, he is always up in our business. it's the verizon 5g home internet i got us. oh... he used to be a competitive gamer but with the higher lag, he can't keep up with his squad. so now we're his “squad”. what are kevin's plans for the fall? he's going to college. out of state, yeah. -yeah in the fall. change of plans, i've decided to stay local. oh excellent! oh that's great! why would i ever leave this? -aw! we will do anything to get him gaming again. you and kevin need to fix this internet situation. heard my name! i swear to god, kevin! -we told you to wait in the car. everyone in my old squad has xfinity. less lag, better gaming! i'm gonna need to charge you for three people.

>> good morning from london, i am a