tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg November 22, 2024 1:00am-2:00am EST
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goolsby suggests there is fervor to go on geopolitics. lacking direction for european markets. goolsby says further room for further cuts, there needs to be quotient. for 40 right now on the benchmark u.s. 10 year. the pound down, consumer feeling a little bit more optimistic, bitcoin closing in on 100,000 dollars.
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up 9/10 of 1%, brent crude with modest gains. avril is in singapore, no doubt focused on india as well. >> really interesting turnaround in indian markets, let's talk about nvidia and infotech is one of the best in the region to do it. baidu missed on revenue and hang seng tech sliding. india gauge managing to clawback the kleins, we saw the clients
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on the nifty. flip the board. fallout related to u.s. charges on adani executives. interesting to me to see how yesterday remember it was a route on the stock and we saw the net wealth declined by $50 billion. today look at the reversal despite extending the clients, look at the stock, the flagship, it was down, extended declines, look how it is faring now. quite a remarkable turnaround at a tricky time for india stockmarkets. significant funds pulled out of markets, $14 billion since
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september, flip the board. we did see record lows amid stock selloffs and some attributed this to risk aversion but also there was lightly to have been some selling and india stocks on a day where the dollar is see strength, even the yen reversing. tom: a reversal in fortunes. no doubt we will cover that, thank you. nominations, candidates being
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tapped by trump. former ag pam bondi after matt gaetz withdrew. let's bring in valerie. what do we know about what she is likely to bring? >> longtime ally of trump, let's take a step back and see how she stood up to the president, she was on his legal defense team, publicly championed his voter fraud claims and received attention for overturning the affordable care act. a loyalist, she was on the
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opioid during her last -- commission during his lasts presidency. >> what do we know about the search for treasury secretary nominee? valerie: still a few needs including kevin warsh, he could take the secretary role. still hearing about mark rowan. we heard from the citadel founder backing the pick. >> markets is a great leader. if you're offered the job,
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please take the job. >> speculation when it comes to filling these seats but there might be deregulation. we heard from gary gensler that he will step down before january, pointing to deregulation. very close to breaking 100,000 level. tom: hard to overstate the animosity toward gary gensler indeed. now to the story of the moment. russia launched a missile at ukraine sending signals to western backers.
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let's bring in all of her croak. ollie, what do we know? oliver: yeah, tom. you're asking all the right questions. what we heard from vladimir putin yesterday was this was retaliation within russia, a lot of back and forth. ukrainian said it was in the u.s. that it was midrange. this was fired 1000 kilometers from the caspian sea, same week putin change their doctrine
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lowering the bar for a nuclear response when we heard about negotiations, russian president, unpacking all this to figure out how much is true, how much is negotiation, we heard from the kremlin spokesman saying russia holds a responsible position and notified the u.s.. there's been a lot of concern, mainly gold having his best week , a lot of concerns about the conflict. tom: yeah, market reaction is there. talk about the battlefield,
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sanctioning russia, sanctions have been effective, some have been less effective. iver: another stepyou had a site europeans bought russian gas so the dynamic is europe pays russia for gas, russia pays ukraine transit fees, now in order to pay they have to go through large banks. this bank has not been sanctioned, it could put pressure on gas. up 20%, not a shock. almost three years into this war , now a lot more storage capacity.
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they brought in a re-gasification unit. that is what germany could not do. it's been a cold winter. stockpiles diminished but this is something that could please donald trump who lambasted the germans. that they should be buying gas from the u.s.. tom: indeed. stockpiles of gas and reaction in the days ahead. thank you. on the dater front, 7:00 a.m. we get retail sales out of the u.k. after consumer sentiment survey suggests spending is less
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pessimistic than they had been. euro area pmi, we will watch for divergence or con virgins. we will get usi pmi and services , contraction in the u.s.. services looking healthy, we will see. icc issues an arrest warrant for israeli prime minister netanyahu for war crimes in gaza. details coming up next. later the chair of the sec confirms he is stepping down in january. reaction at 6:30 a.m. u.k..
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israel rejects charges against netanyahu by the international criminal court. they issued an arrest warrant over war crimes in gaza. did williams joins us with the details. what was the logic used behind the issuance of the warrants? dan: this has been a bombshell to compile evidence. the court once referred to as the world court issued arrest warrants not just for netanyahu but for his defense minister who was dismissed, alleging crimes against humanity, deliberate starvation of civilians in gaza. not unfamiliar or unexpected,
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the israelis have been dealing with this from the outset, they have suggested israel is being singled out. the israelis, while this will cause a struggle, arrest warrants are often issued in secret, they chose to make these public suggesting they may issue other arrest warrants for other officials. this really troubles the israelis and the government. what they have been doing is advocating that their defense try to gather support from countries that accept israel's rationale. definitely a major development in a war that appears to be
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open-ended. tom: very interesting that they are troubled by this because some have questioned the practical applications and whether these are binding. what do we know? dan: there is no question, in the countries that signed the treaty, 124 countries who are required to carry out these warrants should any of these people named set foot in their territory. there has been an indication that western european countries would comply. some may rethink the rationale, whether they should. an open campaign to buck the system, resist and refuse to implement the orders would shake
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up the order around which the court has been built. so much attention to the united states which is not a signatory to this court. biden administration came out vehemently against these. much attention should be given to the incoming administration, republican consensus may penalize any countries choosing to implement arrest warrants against the israeli prime minister, defense minister, so we will see. interesting developments and basic travel bans for the prime minister while very busy has also styled himself as a major statesman. someone who is welcomed in the middle east.
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trying to make inroads and turn adversaries into partners. tom: a logistical challenge. just briefly before we let you go, israel's ability to have it overturned -- is there any process? >> as far as i understand the procedure is simple and israelis did issue motions to reject the arrest warrants and they were turned down by the icc in the same statement in which it issued arrest warrants. the court will say israelis have a chance to contest this and it will come down to individual decisions. different situation with vladimir putin but he faces
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arrest warrants and mongolia hosted him without implementing the warrant, that caused some upset. they've been referred to disciplinary action. that might set a precedent for other cases. tom: dan williams on the context around the warrant decision. coming up, today is the final day of the negotiations going further from here can the climate meeting reach a deal helping development countries hit net zero? this is bloomberg.
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♪ >> big focus has been on climate finance for developing countries. tell us more about the investment. an associate on bloomberg's oil team joins us. talk about the need for emerging markets and financing. >> there is definitely gap between the current levels. taking china out, emerging markets invested, 20% of the global total. vast majority went to fossil fuels. to be on track we estimate annual levels has to more than double to reach two point $6 trillion between now and 2050.
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90% we need to go to low carbon solutions, that is for the context of the debates. target may emerge. tom: they spend a trillion dollars on carbon solutions and now we have a gap in day shift. talking about the size of that where does the funding need to go? >> on the supply side, renewable energy, solar and wind. spending is critical. it is about meeting glowing -- growing demands like charging electric vehicles and more than half of that is on the demand side. going into electric vehicles.
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that is a substantial lift. that comes against the backdrop of electric vehicles becoming cost competitive. tom: what is standing in the way? what are the barriers? >> investing in emerging markets is risky. as a result the cost of capital is high. mobilizing will require improvements to investment, addressing stability, corporate risk and currency risk within the markets. tom: of course cost to capital is a factor. we will see if they sign the communique and can get this across the line. today is the final phase of negotiations are expected.
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analysis in details coming through. join the top conversations on bloomberg at the bnf summit. scan the qr code for more details and sign up. it kicks off in shanghai on december the third. coming up, gary gensler steps down in january, reaction from the manager and president and ceo coming up. it's our son, he is always up in our business. it's the verizon 5g home internet i got us. oh... he used to be a competitive gamer but with the higher lag, he can't keep up with his squad. so now we're his “squad”. what are kevin's plans for the fall? he's going to college. out of state, yeah. -yeah in the fall. change of plans, i've decided to stay local. oh excellent! oh that's great! why would i ever leave this? -aw! we will do anything to get him gaming again. you and kevin need to fix this internet situation. heard my name! i swear to god, kevin! -we told you to wait in the car. everyone in my old squad has xfinity.
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bloomberg daybreak: europe. i'm tom mackenzie in london. these of the stories that set your agenda. tech stocks leave gains in asia after investors warn of nvidia's earnings. bitcoin edges ever closer to $100,000. russia says it fired a new kind of ballistic missile, hitting the central ukrainian city. the latest sign of the conflicts escalation. donald trump nominates a ally pam to run the u.s. justice department. this after matt gaetz is controversial. the initial choice bows out of the running. checking out on markets. a mixed picture in asia. you see the turn in indian stocks, we had some optimism around the edges when it comes u.s. stocks by the end of the close he saw gains. european future is now pointing to modest gains as we lead up to the friday session. ftse 100 in the u.k. looking down 30 points. s&p futures currently flat. nasdaq 100 futures looking at
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losses and may be 34 points down. after a pretty bright session overall for the nasdaq 100 yesterday. that's what the boredom across asset. still around the 440 level on the u.s. benchmark 10 year. we heard from gold to be in the fed suggesting there is more pace or scope for further interest rates cuts coming through for the fed. 440 on u.s. benchmark 10 year yields down one basis play in the session. the pound and focus. consumer sentiment service suggesting consumers in the u.k. are feeling more optimistic. bitcoin, 98 thousand, cross 99,000 in the session. seems to be flirting with that 100,000 dollar level. that would be a major milestone for that cryptocurrency and that ties into optimism within the space around the incoming trump administration. brent up. let's get to what's happening in the u.s. right now with the particular lens and the regulatory framework, because they are to step down as chair
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of the u.s. sec, securities exchange commission. on january the 20th after a 10 year marked by aggressive regulation, fierce resistance from wall street and the crypto industry, this comes on the heels of the sec suffering another setback in efforts to tighten its oversight of wall street after a federal judge struck down new rules that would've required some firms to register as dealers in the u.s. treasuries market. the managed funds association is among the groups that sued the sec over its attempts to regulate the private -- private funds industry. they represent the global alternative asset management industry and more than 180 firms that collectively manage over $3.2 trillion. i'm joined by the associations president and ceo. bright and early. thanks for coming to the studio. what a time given what we are hearing. give us your reaction to the news that they will be stepping down. >> i don't think it's a surprise
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the chair announced his resignation. it's typical for a sitting agency had to step down when a new administration comes on. it has been a challenging for years. you alluded to this. for the first time in ewa -- mfa's history we had to sue the sec over several rules. we won two of those lawsuits, including the one yesterday. we have one more pending and we hope to get that decision soon. we don't want to be in that position, we don't want to be suing a regulator, but he overstepped his authority that was necessary. we are hoping he puts his pen down. no new rules, no major agency reactions in the next two months. and as we move forward to the trump administration we are looking forward to turn the page and look -- work with a new sec chair. tom: as you say, you sue the sec three times, what you say is pretty remarkable in your history. you had this recent victory. what is the significance of your recent victory?
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>> a reaffirms there's a difference between a dealer and investment advisor. chair gensler proposed a rule that tried to tree asset managers as dealers based on certain trading activities. the implications of being a dealer is very draconian. investment managers have investors, they do not have customers. that is a line that the court clearly drew. tom: what are you hope to see, specifically from this incoming trump administration? >> there are things we are optimistic about in terms of supporting robust capital markets. we hope the trump administration will take a step back and look at everything that the chair did. there were 40 plus rules that he finalized in a short time. let's look at how those rules work together and focus on cutting red tape that has made it hard for market participants. we think there's a real opportunity to change the confrontational and adversarial relationship between the sec and
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market participants. lastly, we think there's an opportunity to promote both public and private capital as important sources of financing for business and innovation. tom: i believe the sec would make the point and try to argue they made things safer for investors and they pushed important regulation. when it comes the crypto there was the overseeing of ftx. which is a reminder this is an industry that has been tainted by ford on the misuse of funds. so he would probably cite this? >> i think he would. what i would say is you can have your intentions and your policy objectives, but you have to do it within that framework that congress set out. you can't just take it upon yourself without direct congressional authority to do it you want, and i think that's what we've been pushing back on. tom: looking to 20 25, what does deal activity look like for your members? >> there is optimism about the reforms coming.
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we are focused on the financial services, capital markets industry. we will see who president trump nominates as treasury secretary and some of the other important financial agency positions. but overall i characterized by a sense of optimism and really turning the page, particularly on the regulatory regime. i'm not going to comment. i know the trump administration is working through -- i know mark rowen, they are a member of mfa's. his thought leadership at market expertise would be appreciated. tom: you served with george w. bush as an advisor and advisor to the treasury. so your view on some of the potential headwinds coming through in the trump administration, particularly around tariffs. tears could lead to a slippery slope towards economic irrelevance. which parts of the policy period sure you concerned about? >> at this point we are focused on the regulatory picture and the rules around how market
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participants conduct their business day today. there are a number of large macro policies that the new administration will consider, including tariffs. tom: if you were there in the room, would you be advising again set on tariffs? >> there are a lot of factors that go into any policy decision and the president will hear from a range of advisors as he considers what to do and i think those conversations are in the early phases. tom: do you see cracks in direct lending when you speak to your members? there was a downgrade to moody's, late to the likes of blackrock earlier this year. there's been some concern. you are saying cracks are within that? or excessive broad recognition that the growth of private credit is good for markets. the more capital you have, the more opportunity for businesses to finance innovation and growth. we see private credit is a well regulated industry. the national securities regulators get a lot of information, a lot of oversight. what we are concerned about is
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any sort of knee-jerk overreaction that begins to treat private credit like a bank. there are clear differences between private credit and bank-like financing. private credit firms have investors. they don't have depositors, there is little risk of a run in a private credit fund. unlike a bank where there is a mitch matt -- mismatch of my ability. they are independent and silent from each other. there's the risk of contagion, so we are worried about it taking a bank like approach to private credit. tom: jamie dimon and jp morgan may take issue, but i will let that run. you are in the u.k. in london, what is the investability of the u.k. now versus pre-election, what are your members saying, was that an antigrowth budget we saw from the u.k. chancellor? what is the investment appetite? cracks in the past few days i met with a number of u.k. officials in the knupp -- the message i'm getting is we want growth, we want businesses to come to the u.k., what can we do to reform our markets to make them more attractive?
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thanks like changing the securitization rules, looking to promote new policies like allowing shortselling and making the shortselling changes to markets. it makes it more attractive for our members to come and do business in the u.k. we are optimistic that the chancellor and her team will follow through on a number of these initiatives. tom: you expect to see more initiatives? you are hearing the right sounds? >> as they look at the pension reform and the ability of pension schemes to invest more in private funds is a good thing. tom: thank you very much. we appreciate it. the president and ceo of the managed funds association on the focus around the regulatory scrutiny and whether or not that eases in 2025 out of the u.s. and changes at the top of the usec. citadel founder ken griffin says he is wary of the long-term impact of tariffs. a key part of president elect donald trump's economic agenda
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speaking at the economic club of new york. he explained why tariffs may do more harm than good. >> i am gravely concerned that the rise of tariffs puts us on a slippery slope towards cronyism capital. tom: swedish battery maker north volt is filing for bankruptcy protection in the u.s. after a bid to secure rescue funding fell short, leaving it with just one week's cash on hand. about 30 million u.s. dollars. let's go to bloomberg germany bureau chief who is standing by for the details around this. how big a blow is this for europe's already struggling ev sector? >> good morning, i think it's safe to say that this is a major setback, not just for it as a company, you mentioned the dire
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kass situation that the company disclosed last night, but the fallout, the ramifications are definitely there for some of the big manufacturers who work with the company as well. it's the biggest investor but also bmw will have purchasing agreements in place, and planning with the price of the particular company, and yes, we have seen quite a few of the projects that they are not all necessarily involved in bankruptcy filing. some of them have separate filing, separate financing mechanisms in place, but there will be postponement setbacks down the road. it's definitely not a great day for the european industry. tom: indeed, we will see what happens with the factory plants in germany where you are, talking of which, a reminder of the challenges in the auto sector, with reports that may be some of the workforce of vw are planning walkouts. mass walkouts for next month.
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one of the details on that front? >> there was the second round of negotiations between volkswagen's management and the labor unions over a new wage agreement that didn't lead to an agreement last night. both sides remain pretty far apart. there's a growing concern that the next step from the labor union side would be basically what they describe as morning strikes. these are not proper strikes in terms of the production interruptions, but they are temporary walkouts for several hours. they do have an impact on output. it's something that will be seen early next month starting in december, were some of these measures will be implemented by measures to put pressure on management. tom: as if the management wasn't feeling the pressure. we will see how that unfolds. bloomberg germany bureau chief.
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potential labor disruption at vw next months. some other stories making news across europe. this friday morning, the defense supplier is under investigation by both u.k. and french prosecutors for suspected bribery and corruption. the investigation is looking into suspected bribery of a foreign public official and influence peddling concerning a weapons contract in asia. it is cooperating prosecutors adding that the group complies with all national and international regulations. research firm gf k survey shows u.k. consumer confidence with the surprise increase in november after the budget ended uncertainty of the tax and spending plans of the new labor government. the rise in the survey results indicates households becoming more optimistic about their personal finances and the broader economic outlook. coming up, getting a slew of key european eco-data with pmi numbers for france, germany and
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tom: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe. bloomberg economics now sees further delay to european economic recovery. further widening the divide with the u.s.. on markets and the wider global economy with a particular lens on europe and the u.k. i am joined by the economist for some analysis. thank you for joining us. let's start with the euro zone. manufacturing services data out later this morning. what are you expecting the data from? what do you see in terms of
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health or lack of health in this euros on economy, what's your assessment as we look ahead to those prints later this morning? >> i think on the side of the euro zone, my focus will definitely be around germany. we are going to see the first impact on the pmi's, not only the snap elections that were announced in germany. at the start of this month, but also those trump tariffs. we already know that the manufacturing sector on this side of the economy and the euro zone has really struggled. i expect to see those signs grow in this month's number. i think the real question is around the services sector. the services sector has done a really good job balancing some of the weakness that we have seen on the services side of the economy. but i think the risk for the euro zone over the coming months is that the hit to the economy starts to widen. and if we see that hit to the economy wide and, that really does pose a challenge for the ecb and other policymakers as
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they try to really keep a floor under european growth. tom: that's really interesting. from my understanding, you think we are still a long way from putting a floor under this european economy? >> exactly. i think we've got a lot of support at the moment. even though at milne -- may not feel like it because the growth data isn't extremely strong at the moment. when you dig down into the details you could see that the consumer sector in the eurozone side is still doing extremely well. but the key challenges start to change and we start to see consumption pullback, that will be a real challenge. for example, if you look at the german data, we will get more details on german gdp. what we got from the statuses that a lot of the growth we saw quarter on quarter, driven by household consumption as well as by a government. but that is really important. we start to see that slip,
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that's when we get to the territory where eurozone growth really starts to fall. tom: the ball is back in the ecb's court. so the market is surprising at 100 basis points of cuts between now and april of next year. we get below 2% is the forecast for the ecb base rate around april of next year. how do you expect the cycle of cuts to come through from the european central bank? >> at the moment i expect the ecb to be measured and how they deliver their cuts. would you expect them to deliver a cut in december. a lot of that will depend on the data. i think particularly now we have seen the ecb's shift to more focus. they will be looking at what trump does when he comes into power, in terms of trump tariffs. i think the key focus will be on wet starts to happen to the
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german economy. we have a lot of uncertainty around the german economy and we have elections as well in germany. so i think there is potential for change. i think the ecb will want to be measured in how they cut interest rates. but if the economic condition is warranted, they will be willing to speed up the pace of their cuts. tom: your answers keep coming back to germany for very good reasons. there is more of a fiscal impulse out of any new german government. on the u.k., markets of scale back their bets on the boe. how do you think the boe reacts into 2025? how many cuts do we expect from the boe or are you fading some out now? >> my view on the bank of england is where we got to markets is probably too few cuts. it's cutting bias. we saw the comments from members
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. indicating that they felt around 100 basis points felt ok and i would agree with that. i think the boe are likely to cut once a quarter next year to bring rates down gradually. i think the reason for the u.k. is that we have seen inflation pressures come down considerably . it's not necessarily where the bank would feel comfortable to leave them with services inflation running quite high. but as we start to see the services inflation numbers come down, i think they will come down a lot more materially from the second quarter of 2025, that will give the bank of england that pushed to continue their cutting cycle. tom: maybe markets have phased out to many cuts from the bank of england for next year. thank you very much. economist at jefferies on the euro zone economy with focus on the weakness out of germany. now some other stories making the news.
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alphabet shares fell after the information reported that openai is preparing to take on google, but developing its own web browser. the chatgpt owner who has struck deals to drive search dealers for retail and other websites, the report says openai has talked about powering ai future -- powering ai features on devices made by google partner samsung. plenty more coming up with a lens on bitcoin. this is bloomberg. ♪
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you saw that rally on the stimulus pushed through particularly from the pboc monetary authorities. the expectation that you get more detail around fiscal response. some has gone through but from others it has been more piecemeal, more cautious than expected. that, let on top of the fact that there's expectations are on additional risk from the incoming trump administration making and putting additional pressure on the csi 300 and chinese equities, marking that for you. intraday move down the most 10% since those gains we saw since the year today high in october. that's what the board and have a look at the different asset class. bitcoin is continuing to gear itself closer to that 100,000 dollar level. and that would be quite the line in the sand for the cryptocurrency. currently 99,000. he could have a strategic reserve in the u.s. of the trumpet ministration purchase their own policies. sec chair. a bugbear for the crypto industry announcing he will be stepping down. additional inputs in the gains that have come through in this
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bull market. it's up about 125% year to date. 4% since november the fifth and the election of donald trump. currently 99,000. check out bloomberg's weekend edition. we will keep an eye on whether or not this cross is 100,000. the weekend edition, interviews and stories. dive deeper into the context of stories that shaped markets. you can scan the qr code, do that on the screen to subscribe to the newsletter. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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