mans: prepare for black friday. we are talking about french bond market and the french eurozone. the friends 10 year north of 20% meaning that the spread has been

widening. earlier today we saw french bonds trading at the same level. who would've thought that that would've happen. that is rippling out into other asset classes. we see the euro-dollar reacting to cpi inflation data and that has been factored into the spanish data. and european stocks are broadly bid this morning. your considering a text selloff in the united states going into the thanksgiving day holiday. we will monitor what happens with some big stories breaking within the tech space and we will come back to those later on. francis a focus in europe. whereas we have indicated the french assets are under pressure. the country is facing a deepening political crisis -- crisis and a confident -- and a possible no-confidence vote

causing huge uncertainty. let us talk a little bit about what is happening and get a sense of what is going on. we are joined by caroline to talk about what is going on and how the latest moves are affecting asset prices. let us talk about what is happening today. we have already had the french finance minister on the radio trying to calm the situation down and a vote coming up on pension reform. talk to us about what is happening and give us the update. caroline: it is very interesting because when you saw that the french word matching of the greek levels and at the same time they move to where we are speaking of the radio and trying to reassure the market obviously what we have seen with the spread widening between the french and german tenure with

the highest levels since 2012. we are seeing people say it is trying -- it is better to negotiate and update this budget rather than having no budget and risk a possible government collapse before christmas. that is why the french finance minister was saying this morning and later today we will have a vote on the pension reform. you might say what is going on, that is last year? the far left is proposing to repeal this pension reform. the vote might not actually take place because macron's party has put 100 -- 1000 amendments to be discussed before midnight. if a vote happens that it is very likely that the national party in the left leg will try to abandon this pension reform and that will not bode very well for a possible vote of

no-confidence over the next few days. guy: which is interesting. the timeline seems to be getting shorter. let us talk about marine le pen. over the last few days i have listen to what she has to say and it sounds like she is digging herself in deeper. the finance minister was talking about concessions. how big do they need to be to allow marine le pen to change tack? caroline: they are looking for 6 billion euros for spending in order to bring the deficit from 6% to 5%. the money will be found somewhere. he wanted to delay the indexation of pensions by july while marianne le pen is against that. he wanted to raise taxes on electricity and larry is also against it. he also wanted to perhaps have

less reimbursement for some medicine. marine le pen is also against it. that is a big concession that will have a deficit impact and marine le pen said it depends on whether the french government really hears her red lines. >> if the budget stays the same yes this is not a surprise. we set it for the past three months. i am telling you, if this budget is not approved the budget of last year will apply and it is not as actually as bad as this one as there are left -- less taxes for the working and middle classes. caroline: there is a first vote of no-confidence happening as soon wednesday on the social security part of the budget. it is thanksgiving so i will

give you a thanksgiving quote that we heard from one of the ministers in charge of relations with parliament and he said we are like turkeys waiting for christmas. guy: or in this case thanksgiving. perfect and thank you very much indeed. joining us out of the french capital on the politics of what is happening with the french budget. the french has been matching the yield on greece for the first time on record earlier on today. putting the second largest economy on an equal footing with a country once at the heart of the european sovereign debt crisis. we will talk about bonds and start -- and stocks and valerie is here with the details. valerie: we saw these greek 10-year yields trading inside those of france. just guess what the wives were in 2012 of the sovereign debt crisis. re-thousand 421 basis points and

this was at the most widens -- the spread at its most whitest. we are on par. the market is pricing the credit of france equal to germany and there is something else worrying. one more topic i want to touch on as we flip onto the next chart it is what french bonds have been doing on asset swaps. this is the yield versus the equivalent swap rate. this is important because a lot of bank treasuries hold french o.a.t.'s on asset swap and that has been underwater as we see this widen very aggressively. a lot of this is the market telling us that we are unable to digest this market supply of bonds as it comes through. as we look at the short-term picture of how french assets have traded, we are in the green up .8%. the long-term picture on french equities and year-to-date looks different.

guy: thank you very much indeed. let us carry on the conversation around what is happening with european and french stocks. the turmoil is not limited to france, germany facing significant issues. daniela costa joins me around the table, good morning. we have a really difficult political environment in europe at the moment at the same time as we watch u.s. markets take off. how do you make the argument and should you make the argument at the moment that european stocks are cheap and capital goods stocks are worth looking at and europe is worth re-examining? is -- in the current environment is not an argument easy to make? daniela: it has a lot of uncertainty. we have spent the post-pandemic period actually at a significant premium for the european capital with stocks compared to the european market overall. this has found -- finally wound

down and we are close to the roughly 12 month forward price to earnings premium that european capital goods have traded at. i would say we are at extremely depressed valuations but there are significant dispersions. for example, electrical equipment and energy year and that is trending at a significant premium. machinery is geared toward actual production. guy: are the defense stocks something we should be factoring in because they have had a good run over the last few months taking us back to the transatlantic trade story and reinvestment story. daniela: the european defense stocks have continued to trade at significant margins and our outperformer's year-to-date. with all of the uncertainty at the political climate and the pressure for europe to move to 2% of gdp and defense spending is something that investors see

to continue to play out. guy: do i think about some of these companies as being global or european companies? many of them have significant footprints in the united states. you look at plenty of others. siemens is another one. rolls-royce by definition, it moves around the world with relative leaves. -- ease. should i look at them and say they are not european companies but global companies but they trade at discounts. daniela: it is about 40% of the revenue for the average capital goods and industrial cap touch company that sits in europe. a quarter in the u.s. and roughly 15% in china. they are definitely global companies and you touched upon the discounts versus the u.s. market. this is true if you look at capital goods companies versus -- european versus u.s.. guy: does the politics impact

the capital goods sector. you have both programs running on terms of re-transition and rearmament. how are they feeding in and how accurate is the pricing around some of these things? daniela: 100%. they are relevant. we had the topic of ira and the energy transition and the european companies are very well positioned to satisfy that need for a higher utilities and energy efficiency topics. there is more uncertainty on some of those at the moment but this has been the story of the last two years. on the other end they a big place on china compared to u.s. companies with lower exposure. so the question around tariff and chinese stimulus is imperative. guy: when you talk to the clients, do they push back and say why do i want to buy a european company. when i talk to portfolio

managers in the states they are scratching their heads and wondering why they have any allocation into europe? daniela: i just came from the u.s. with some marketing and in almost every meeting people are i am not exposed to more than maybe one or no stocks in the european industrial space and i see them between a rock and a hard place between every topic that people might like, data center investment or utility investment there is a u.s. name where you do not have to worry about china and tariffs, so people think the valuation discount in the european capital goods as a consequence of that. guy: given the tariff story does the discount get bigger and is that something we should think about? or do these companies have big enough footprints, airbus and etc. that they can avoid these tariff concerns? daniela: it depends on the

magnitude and where they are put. to give you an idea, roughly 80 to 85% localization is what the companies have in the u.s. so they are still net importers and half of them come from mexico and the rest is split between the u.s. and china. the magnitude will make a big difference. we have a case of 2018 2019 tariffs where we were talking 20 to 25% and those were passed through and they ended up with higher prices. these companies tend to have pretty good pricing power and they are u.s. competitors, but not 100% u.s.. they bring in parts of the value chain, things like led or electronic components that you do not have the ability to do in the u.s.. guy: will a significantly cheaper euro make life easier for these companies? can we compensate one for the other? daniela: the dollar appreciation is a slight positive but the

sector is balanced so it is not a big earnings delta. aerospace and defense is different where you are geared toward the dollar euro and that makes a difference of the earnings estimate. guy: thank you for stopping by to see us. we will look at capital goods in the tech sector next and we will look in the united states. we have seen the ftc investigating microsoft. the outgoing biden administration weighing sales of semi conductors in china. this is bloomberg. ♪

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guy: 16 minutes past the hour

and let us talk about what is happening stateside with the tech sector. microsoft is facing headwinds after the u.s. ftc opened an antitrust investigation into the text -- the tech giant. they detailed a long list of areas that they want to scrutinize everything from software licensing to cybersecurity to ai. that is talk to the implications. tom mackenzie joining me. this is substantial and a big ask from the ftc. having tom: tom: a blow for microsoft. and coming towards the end of the ftt sarah -- ftc chair's term as she looks to step down. they spent more than a year talking to microsoft's competitors and they have been piecing the evidence together. they have made a formal request to microsoft to hand over information. they are particularly concerned with the bundling for the cloud

services offerings of microsoft with their software and cybersecurity. there are a couple of elements to this. one is national security. you will remember the crowd no straight -- crowdstrike outage quite dramatically and the fact that this is a reminder that microsoft is a provider of billions of dollars worth of software to the u.s. government and notably the defense department. there is the national security element and what it means for the bundling of their products. those have come together and we will wait to see what information that microsoft is compelled to provide to the ftc. and whether or not the trump administration continues as. guy: let us ask what the trump administration is likely to do. if you listen to jd vance, the vice president coming in. he seems to be taking a tough line and a continuation of the

lina khan strategy. there was this assumption that trump would be easier when it comes to regulation but is that necessarily true when it comes to big tech? tom: you will see those competing tensions and whether they will have a clear line still is being firmed up. derek's concern among parts of his administration around free speech so you have for example zuckerberg from meta meeting with trump to make the case that you would expect that they are doing what is expected to allow an open platform on instagram and facebook. and then you have jeff bezos making comments about the election on trump and then having those conversations and not putting out that editorial on the "washington post." they are trying to lobby the incoming administration. jd vance comes from a particular parts of that conversation. and then there are traditional

elements like the incoming treasury secretary who are pushing for a relaxed view on what has been a pretty historically aggressive ftc push against corporate consolidation of power as they would frame it. guy: they are breaking up some of these big quest -- these big companies. on the chip sector the biggest points gainer. we have seen the biden administration announced that it will impose sanctions around the chinese chip sector. the first thing that it was not quite as to tony and -- draconian as originally anticipated. it turns out that stocks out of amsterdam are doing well this morning. can you explain what is going on? tom: a part of it is the expectation within the ecosystem that you will see a continuation of a ramp-up of pressure when it comes to exports of certain parts of the chip space into the chinese market.

we know the biden administration has been pressuring the netherlands and japan to apply for the restrictions in place for u.s. companies. now we expect the details to come through on the latest restrictions but some companies and providers of hardware to huawei, some of those have been left off of the list. they had been on the list and now they have been taken off. it seems like the threat that they have been reaching for to impose those restrictions on the netherlands and japan via that rule that they have at their disposal, that has not yet been put into play. and they have reduced the number of names on that list. guy: thank you very much, providing clarity on the chip space. we will shift to what is happening in the middle east with geopolitical tensions remaining high. open -- opec-plus delaying its meeting to figure out what to do next. does the oil market need more oral right now? this is bloomberg. ♪

guy: welcome back. opec+ confirmed a bloomberg story that the organization is delaying the next meeting. opec is in a really difficult place. the market does not need any more barrels but it has been itching to deliver more. so is the delay basically to try and by itself a little bit more time, what is going on? >> you have nailed it. there is pressure from within to add barrels. the uae in particular has plenty of capacity and has been pushing for being able to supply more. at the same time everybody is acutely aware that the market is oversupplied. so you are about to support -- two about adding -- you are

about to start adding barrels with the market does not want them. guy: what are the potential solutions? alaric: the obvious thing is a delay. guy: more delay. alaric: yes. there were voluntary cuts that could have happened this year that they have put off. i think there was a greater expectation that they would proceed with extra barrels next year, as i say the market does not need that supplied. there is going to be pressure from the market to not add the barrels. guy: thank you very much. let us -- talking to us about what is happening in the market. coming up we will talk about what is happening with the dollar and where to go next. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ ♪ ♪ something has changed within me ♪ ♪ it's time to try defying gravity ♪ ♪ ♪

guy: happy thanksgiving. welcome back. let's talk about the eurozone.

it was under pressure today. inflation data out of germany, the states there suggesting a small rise in inflation and a similar story when it comes to spain but that is not the real story within the eurozone right now. there is chaos in france and we have a few problems in germany as well, but the french story feels more acute at the moment and we are waiting for the government potentially to fall. jordan rochester joining around the table from mizuho bank. what is the relationship between chaos in french politics, o.a.t. spreads widening out over germany, and the euro? because the two do not seem as correlated as you would think. jordan: whatever the german data is doing matters for the euro. it doesn't matter if you get a period where for example in 2017 or so, we were very optimistic on the euro with micron winning the french elections.

and you had the italian blow up 2018. investors were optimistic on france, it would've been chaotic, but they weren't. it would have a market that was already ready for this pessimistic view on france the politics seem really hard to square. the idea of le pen. i would say that the problem with france it is one of the largest issuers in europe and now you have a buyers strike. i was just in france recently talking to investors, and the interest in buying o.a.t.'s was extremely low. you have other options, italy and spain, and their data is a fantastic rate on implement falling in both where in germany and france the outlook is much more dire. guy: do we just continue to see

the euro grinding lower? is that the trade that will continue to be put on? the more medium picture is it a grind towards parity? jordan: this is the most clear macro trade there is which is euro underperformance versus the u.s., the only problem i have is everyone agrees, and it becomes a really consensus view and we see that play out this week. we have this big month end rebalancing going on. we were worrying about strong inflation in europe this morning. you have got the trump trade coming to a short-term pause. the euro shorts have been hired this week absolutely, so the idea of getting to 1.06 is possible because this monthly rebalancing flow from pension funds, they have made money in dollar assets but they have to shift to euros so you will see selling into the weekend. next week when we have nonfarm payrolls in the u.s. it will bounce back because of the hurricane impact trade the euro-dollar downside trend is back on, we're looking towards

1.03 to 1.01 december-january. france has blown up in a way but trump did mention on truth social tariffs on europe, didn't mention japan, why? that's what we need the answer to. he is not yet in office, we will wait until january 20 for that. if europe gets a negotiation, than the markets will be a lot less pessimistic and euro what bounce back but i am of the view that europe is in his crosshairs he just hasn't gotten around to it yet. annmarie: assuming the cross hairs are finally trained on europe and it finds itself in a difficult situation on tariffs. is there a significant enough center of gravity in europe to say we need to respond, is the commission strong enough? without france and germany having obvious leadership right now to deal with that, is there enough leadership to deliver the draghi report? our country's really going to get on board at a super national level to deliver a response considering they cannot deal

with their own domestic politics. jordan: as time goes on it gets weaker and weaker, the pro-eu bloc are slowly losing power, in 2020 when we had covid and the eu short program and nexgen eu, it was a fantastic time for the policymakers brady had pro-eu in france and germany, italy had draghi for a simple and of course spain, so it was easier to get things done around the table. this time you have got le pen, baloney and the french politics, mess and germany facing an election in february. it is a lot more difficult but when there is a will, there is a way. if you have tariffs being thrown on europe, the german auto sector probably the weakest spot in germany right now in terms of sectors, when germany is under pressure, the idea of fresh issuance and eu-level issuance to counteract this u.s. problem will be quite easy sell for politicians. guy: i will quote a line from my colleague simon white who wrote a piece this might talking about the dollar being on dollard --

borrowed time, when everyone agrees, something else usually happens. there is broad consensus that trump will bring struggle dollar, give me the tail risks, everybody agrees we will get weaker euro. simon says usually something else happened. what could cause something else to happen here? jordan: it happens most years actually pre-december you have strong seasonality for weaker dollar, on average 1% down, the hit ratio is about 70%, for stocks it is even better, 80% hit ratio of stocks heading higher into year end from around thanksgiving. when stocks go up, the dollar weakens because it is risk on, you are fighting seasonality, the last time seasonality did not work 2016 when trump won, so there is potential for the dollar to strengthen in december like i think it will. then we get to january and everybody like myself on the sell-side at banks writes an outlook piece here is my top 10 trades and by january 15th, usually seven out of 10 stops out, and when people sit down

january the first or the fourth, whenever the actual first trade day is, they look at the consensus trades what the big positions are and go you know what [indiscernible] and i think the january turn is very real for this dollar trade. annmarie: there is a lot of weighted money around this though. do you not need to see something fundamentally shift in order to provide some tailwind for those traits to be put on? jordan: it is this scott bessent treasury picked that provided the tailwind along with month end rebalancing close because markets are saying maybe trump will be a negotiator on tariffs, like he was in 2016 to 2020. i don't think he will, i think january 20 we will have executive orders with tariffs being announced and implemented within a month afterwards, i could be wrong and if i am, then the dollar strength story does not play out as well. we are looking for stimulus from china and europe. that could change the game. q2, if china has tariffs on it,

which he said he would on truth social, i don't think china will have much negotiation. maybe china does big fiscal stimulus q2 and that would change the tide for everything. annmarie: an entire conversation about euro-dollar and we did not mention the fed or the ecb. jordan: they absolutely do, the ecb short-term is a little too much priced into the next two meetings in my view but the markets have to price the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in december or jan from the ecb. the pmi data was woeful. but the inflation data has bounced. we are above 2% in germany and 2% in spain. that will be the case tomorrow in euro area. i don't think it is enough data for the germans and the other hawks in the ecb to get dovish for 50. january is too soon. we do not have enough data. i think the trade is pricing a lower terminal right for euro. the market is pricing 175, we're looking for 150 or below, the market is way too anchored on

this 2% neutral view. guy: where do you think neutral is? they will go restrictive, how will they be, accommodative again, that is basically the trade? jordan: i agree with 2% being good for, i think they need to cut to accommodative to 1.5. guy: how big an effect is that going to be? you look at the politics and you think can monetary policy really do anything, i appreciate it will be the currency, but cannot do anything else other than move the currency? jordan: they need weaker currency to offset tariffs for start. the monetary policy going 50 basis points below neutral is not useful rate switch live right now are going towards zero again in terms of pricing trade we could be in a case dexia where none of the good news happens in europe and we have to talk about getting to nearly zero again. guy: the ecb goes through neutral, what about the fed? jordan: very different story. 3% gdp growth, inflation about

2%, unemployment at 4.1%, it says they don't need to cut aggressively so we think they skiff jan and 4% terminal rate, so a huge wedge between where the fed will end up and the ecb at 1.5%. guy: is the fed more restrictive? jordan: slightly tight. guy: in terms of therefore where that leaves us, given that spread is big, the two major central banks of the world doing very different things. why would i not continue to own the dollar in that environment? jordan: it reminds me of the divergent monetary policy trade in 2014, 2015 and 2016. one trump got elected the first time we had qe. this time around, trump has got elected, we don't have that in europe but we are moving towards it. it feels a bit more like 2014 when the ecb cut to negative

with qe. guy: wildcards that could throw us off this, boj hiking? jordan: structural change in their labor force, so we think they raise rates to 1% terminal rate, we are at 0.2 5% now but it is a slow moving train, every six months you will get rate hikes, that 1% we will get to in 2026 but look at the labor market data. we are having record highs in the modern version of labor statistics, using the old ones, we're at 1992 levels of wage growth in japan, but a 2006 level of interest rates, we should be much higher. guy: is there a repatriation trade? everybody talks about repatriation once the boj flips, you will see money pouring back into japan, i haven't seen it yet. jordan: it is going to happen if it hasn't happened already because you see the two-year swap rate moving quickly the past few weeks, so that jgb is more attractive for local investors, it slows down the local investor outflows especially with what is going on

with france, they are usually a big buyer. guy: real tour de force in terms of what we have been watching. jordan rochester of mizuho thank you indeed. nouriel roubini's warning on donald trump proposed tariffs. we will hear what he has to say next. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ guy: 43 minutes past the hour, welcome back. investors uncertain on the impact president trump electorate i should probably say will have when it comes to the tariffs story. many concerned we could see adverse effects on the global economy. famed economist nouriel roubini warning the policies may lead to higher inflation and lower growth. >> some of the economic policies of trump may lead to higher economic growth to being pro business, keeping tax rates low, deregulate the economy but many of the government policies will have an implication of higher inflation and lower economic growth. the first thing he already

announced will be tariffs against mexico, canada and china. that's only the beginning. he said we might have up to 20% tariffs on all our trade partners, up to 60% against china. he wants to have massive deportation of people. the last for years, the increase in migration has increased the labor supply and increased economic growth, so mass deportation is stagflation area. he wants not only to make those tax cuts permanent but he made other promises, no taxes on tips and overtime, on social security, income earned abroad and so on. it is estimated these things will increase the deficit to a trillion dollars. if you want to welcome the dollar, that will be inflationary. he may interfere with the independence of the fed buried getting out of the paris accord will make climate change much worse, increase food price things of that sort. >> a lot of things you just said

or what a bitcoiner would say as to why you should buy bitcoin. there is now the bitcoin etf, over 100 billion dollars, clearly a big hit. talk that it could be a strategic reserve. you have gold in the portfolio. could anything move you to add bitcoin to your etf to accomplish some of these goals? >> bitcoin is highly volatile, it can go up 10% one day and down 10-15% on another day. if you want a stable store of value, you would not put bitcoin into your portfolio. the kind of assets we are thinking about are all assets that do well when you have lower growth and higher inflation, whether it is shortened treasuries, gold as a hedge against inflation, geopolitics, financial crisis. some exposure to commodities that will do well in a world of inflation. and environmentally sustainable rates.

it is a diversified portfolio of assets that have done well in these types of tail risk. i am skeptical for a lot of reasons about cryptocurrencies and bitcoin because they are not currencies. they are not a stable store of value. if you want to wealth preservation rather than high volatility, stay away from those types of assets. guy: not a fan of bitcoin. nouriel roubini talking to bloomberg. it is thanksgiving which means tomorrow will be black friday. retailers are bracing themselves for potential records. we will talk about the next. this is bloomberg. ♪

guy: turkey today, shopping tomorrow. black friday is almost upon us. retailers are gearing up for what could be one of the biggest black fridays ever. the consumer data recently is very strong.

let's talk more about this with andrea felsted. how big could this potentially be? the data on the consumer out of the states is superstrong. >> i think it is going to be a big black friday, for some reasons good and some not so good. i think retailers have been quite restrained in their discounting last year. last black friday they were quite restrained, that discipline has continued this year, so the consumer knows if it wants deals, they will hump for them and they will wait for them. the bad is the low-end consumer is still under pressure. we had target saying last week that consumers will be resourceful. the consumer is picky, only buying what they need, but they describe consumers waiting for deals, when there are deals they stuck up, when the deals are

over, they don't buy as much. they had a really good circle sales week in october but they had a dip before and after, so those two together, we could see quite a big black friday. guy: there is a tension between a and some are looking for deals and a retailer that doesn't want to give them. >> it is always who blinks first. the one area that could be savings in europe and the u.s. we had quite a warm autumn, europe was warm in october, the u.s. was warm late october, november. if you are in the market for a coat, sweater, boots, gloves, you could see good deals on those. but they are trying to rein the deals in. guy: if it is warm, why would i need one anyway i guess is the question? you tell me people buy too many sequins pretty is that the story again? sequins are always on sale basically?

>> there is always too many sequins i feel. we are particularly at risk and we are this year, i wonder if people will rein in going out? we had christmases where people could go out, no lockdowns, because when you look in the u.s., food prices in supermarkets have stabilized but eating out of home prices are going up. in europe, we have still got the lingering cost-of-living crisis, and i wonder if that is a way people will dial back. you might buy a sequined t-shirt or gown, you will not buy the head to to sequins. guy: we have that out of the way. how significant is this moment going to be? the rest of the world feels really depressed at the moment. >> i think the u.s. consumer is coming back. you talk to the luxury brands,

they are pointing to resilience in the u.s. it has stable lot based -- stabilized and they are hoping with china in the doldrums the u.s. will pick up on things like watches, luxury bags, that they are looking for the u.s. guy: bitcoin has been tracking towards 100, we are back at 95, how significant are those factors when we think what spending will look like? >> luxury tends to correlate with stockmarket so that is a good thing. when we had the boom in the u.s. from 2020 to 2023, bitcoin and crypto was a big part of that. that fueled things like the watch buying. that fueled the bubble in secondhand watches. we haven't seen that yet. watches are stable. recovery it would be something to watch for. watch the secondary market because that tends to be a bit

of an indicator of that. i wonder whether people will be quite as eager to funnel their bitcoin gains into things like that. but it definitely correlated last time around and there is a good chance it will this time too. guy: we are starting to hear of industry stuffing up in advance of trump tariffs. luxury looks like it could be in the crosshairs of the trump administration. is there an element of that we should watch out for? >> just from the u.s. results this week, we have had companies talk about tariffs coming in. the luxury brands make more in europe rather than china. they will be affected by the european tariffs rather than very high chinese tariffs. but it is still another headwind. guy: companies that have not raised prices aggressively will do better in that environment. >> yes, but they have all raised prices, very few haven't raised prices. in the typical market, luxury would be more protected because

it could raise prices -- guy: the price prices have been epic. >> they really have gone too far and that is why the consumer is pushing back. we are seeing some changes. some people are reining in prices, very few people lowered their price in luxury. what we will see is the introduction of lower-priced products. a lot of mini-bags everywhere because you can legitimately charge less. guy: i like a mini-driver. andrea felsted walking us through what we should expect tomorrow when the americans are done with their turkey and turned their attention to the shopping story. coming up, bny will be joining us. at the moment, european equities are broadly higher. the stoxx 50 up 0.7%. we are watching a cac 40 which is a little higher, which is

interesting given the politics. the ftse 100 more muted. u.s. futures at the moment pointing to a negative start when trading restarts, but we will see proper full trading at the end of the week. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> welcome to bloomberg markets. i'm tom mackenzie in london. france's 10 year yields match greece for the first time ever on rising concerns about stagflation and political uncertainty. u.s. regulators turn their focus to microsoft with a wide-ranging investigation into its offerings from ai to cloud computing. lebanon's economic minister says the truce with israel is an

opportunity for peace. our interview coming up. let's check in on the markets. happy thanksgiving to everyone who celebrates. u.s. markets futures are pointing to modest gains when it comes to the reopening of u.s. equity markets friday. current european futures gaining .4%. s&p futures up eight basis points, nasdaq 100 futures looking to add .2%. let's look across asset. we have political challenges in france in focus with questions around the budget and yields edging lower and it comes to french debt. you can see that on the benchmark 10 year, still above that 3% level but not by much, clearly near the parity level with greek debt. we will break that story down for you in detail. opec-plus pushing back their meeting, so we will see what they decide in terms of

production cuts and whether they actually commit to those. the yellow metal gaining in the session .4%. to the story around france, french assets under pressure as the country faces a deepening political crisis and a possible no, -- no-confidence vote threatens to oust the prime minister. let's get more on the political situation from out of paris. how likely is this vote on pension reform repeal today? to what extent is the likelihood that is going to pass? what do we know about concerns around the budget? >> what is interesting about this foot today is not that it is going to pass because it is going to be blocked in the senate. what is interesting on the pension repeal vote today is the national rally and left-wing are probably going to joan -- join

forces on a subject that is against the government can't which does not bode well if the prime minister faces a vote of no-confidence in the next few days, so technically today is a first step and next week we will have a vote probably on the security -- the social security part of the budget. that is when he will probably face his first vote of no-confidence. you saw the quote from the french finance minister, trying to reassure the markets and say we are going to make concessions on the budget because it is better to have a budget with concession rather than no government at all and another political crisis and chaos in france. tom: when it comes to what we have heard from a key player in the decision-making as to

whether this vote of no-confidence is -- ends up in a collapse government, what are we hearing from far right politicians in terms of whether they will support the french prime minister at this time? caroline: marine le pen know she has the cards in her hand. she is the king in parliament since the elections. if she does support anything for the left-wing, the government will collapse. the panic we have seen in the markets is raised pressure on bank stocks. french borrowing costs reaching the levels of greece earlier this morning. all this has been due to pressure from the national rally over the past few days, threatening a vote of no-confidence. she has repeatedly said she has red lines on the budget. she does not want to see prices of medicine rise. she does not want to see new

taxes on electricity and she does not want to lay on inflation. here is what she had to say over the past couple days on this. >> if it stays the same, yes. this is no surprise. we always said it for the past three months. i am telling you, if this budget is not approved, the battle of last year -- the budget last year will apply and is not as bad as this one for the working and middle classes. caroline: we will see if the promises of concessions from the finance minister this morning actually are enough to reassure the markets, but it is a game of chicken. we will see next week there is actually a vote of no-confidence . we will see if investors are reassured. analysts are saying the spread

between the french and german 10 year yield could raise to 100 basis points if there is another government collapse before christmas. i want to finish on a thanksgiving quote with this minister from akron's government who is in charge of relationships with parliament. he was saying we are like turkeys waiting for christmas. >> ok. thank you. with the reach their for an analogy around thanksgiving. with the politics of france continued to be in focus for these markets, the yields down slightly. it is currently at 3%, the euro a little softer in the session. let's bring in geoffrey yu. thanks for your time this thursday morning. let's start with the question of france and how much is priced in when it comes to the euro around

the political risks of france at this point. >> the burden is more on the yield and spreads right now. in terms of the euro, it is about the ecb and how the ecb award respond to this. we have cpi figures coming through today. i think they will keep an eye on things. from the euro point of view, it is about how much dollars there are the market. we will see where rate expectations go, so differentiating what the euro is doing versus what the bond market is doing. last week was one of the worst on record over the last 10 years or so, actually the eighth worst week on record in one of the worst weeks since the energy crisis two years ago. >> one of the worst weeks on record. are you getting a sense in terms of conversations with clients that there may be a buying opportunity when it comes to french assets or are you a long way from that? >> it is not really a buying

opportunity for any asset at this point. there are quite a few permutations with regard to french elections and european politics, so they are not really taking a view on it now. they are more concerned about volatility in terms of where the ecb is headed. we had comments this week. she sounded like rates were going up, not down, so that is another thing to consider but q1 next year, politics in the euro zone is going to be a feature for allocation. tom: what is your updated view? given what we heard and the slightly softer inflation data out of spain today, what is your current assessment of the cycle going forward into 2025 for this ecb? geoffrey: no change in our view. we think euro-dollar is headed down to parity. i was expecting it this year. we will probably roll that into

q1 or maybe early q2, subject to how tariffs go from the u.s. and also politics. the ecb needs to look at what it is seeing or not seeing that others are seeing, where they are going aggressively toward neutral rates, heading toward the lower bound in swiss will and's -- switzerland's case. they are concerned about the direct -- direction of travel on a structural level, worried about services as well. that cycle and those structural issues facing big eurozone are not going to change. the ecb is picking up on that. tom: does the ecb picking up on that signal a 50 basis point cut could be in the cards? >> we have had 15 to 20 speeches this week. no one has brought that out.

i think everything is on the table. i think the market will price in something along the lines of 40 basis points. any meeting between the december meeting and the march meeting when the next set of forecasts will come out, a 50 basis point move it any of these meetings should not be rolled out. tom: do not rule out jumbo cuts from the ecb. expectations are below 2% for the second half of next year. you still see euro-dollar parity. when it comes to pricing around potential tariffs for the incoming president and his administration, i'm fascinated by the decision from the bank of korea today to do a primitive cut. i'm talking specifically about the risks of incoming president trump and terror threats. is that a signal to other central banks?

>> i think it will always be idiosyncratic in terms of how you react to this, but i hope the export oriented economies in asia and around the eurozone focus savings more on the domestic side of things. focus more on consumption. that is something especially asia needs to turn its head around cuts that requires coordinated policies between the central banks and finance ministries, something china is looking at. we are seeing it in our flow data as well, so korea and japan need to revisit strategies as well, japan looking at another stimulus too. tom: on japan, what is the stimulus package mean? it seems there is increasing probability that you get another hike from the bank of japan in

december as well. does the gap that we see still in terms of rate differential continue to be a theme in terms of yen weakness or do you see a gap that closes and puts support under that currency? >> it needs to start supporting the yen now. i hope this fiscal stimulus is more directed toward the household. then i think that will open more room for the boj to move higher on rates as well. so turn this into an opportunity. that is the message of the exporters. running these surpluses and concerns over the u.s. deficit ahead as well notwithstanding, rates could fall over the medium to longer term over the u.s.. a change in strategy is needed. i would say which country can get the balance of reflation

right and utilize surpluses toward domestic households, that is where you will see effective exchange rate appreciation within the currencies. tom: really interesting. let's see if policymakers are listening in. euro-dollar currently a little softer with may be the first quarter of next year you get to parity. the japanese yen is also weaker. let's bring breaking news now on the corporate front. a spanish drugmaker, a bit of a disappointment early this week when brookfield dropped its plans to acquire it. it is contending with a significant debt pile of around 9.2 billion euros. the ceo says the company is in talks to refinance that debt and

that credit line as well. there are talks with banks to refinance 1.4 billion euros in bonds due next year and extend a revolving credit line. the company ceo says the plan is to refinance the bonds and they are considering repaying them with cash flow, so that is detail with a debt pile of nine point 2 billion euros after brookfield walked away from a potential takeover of that spanish drugmaker. the u.s. federal trade commission zeros in on microsoft with a wide-ranging investigation. we have the details of our bloomberg scoop and scrutiny on microsoft coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to bloomberg markets. tom:the u.s. ftc is investigating microsoft. we are told the federal trade commission is looking to everything from the company's cloud computing and software licensing business is to cyber security offerings and ar products. let's get the details on this bloomberg scoop. what do we know about the scope of the investigation and where the ftc is in the process? >> the biden administration is

trying to finish a few things in their last week in office. one of the things we are seeing is that the leader of the commission is launching a couple antitrust investigations. she has been aggressive in going after the tech companies. now we are seeing focus on microsoft and reporters have found they have spent about a year talking with partners of microsoft, some of their customers also, to find out how microsoft is bundling products you mentioned, including cloud computing or cybersecurity services and there are concerns that they are using market power to keep out competition in this area. one of the things that triggered this is because microsoft has such a strong presence in cybersecurity and the federal government is a big customer, they are concerned about vulnerabilities around those services the government gets. >> so there is a national security element.

>> exactly. we had a pretty big issue with cybersecurity software in the past that affected a bunch of microsoft computers. that raise the urgency of these issues. we are only weeks away from a new administration. the trump administration will take over and that could have dramatic changes for these kind of investigations. lina khan is going to leave after this and somebody else is going to take over the ftc. there is an impression that the republican administration will be lighter on these big tech companies but there have been signs they are not happy with big tech. jd vance has spoken out against the power of these big tech companies, so we have to see where they will go with these sorts of investigations. tom: we do not have a clear view of what line they are going to take on these investigations. >> we know the ftc will not be led by lina khan come up with

the investigation has gone pretty far along the road. we know they have gathered a lot of information and they are seeking additional information from microsoft. there will be some foundation for them to begin with. >> we can expect microsoft to put up a legal challenge. >> of course. 20 years ago, they fought back against antitrust as the administration changed. we think there's a tougher stance for some of these big tech companies. we are seeing google under scrutiny and there's pressure for them to separate the chrome browser. we have investigations at -- in motion. tom: thank you for the context around this bloomberg scoop. shares of chinese driverless tech firm fell in u.s. trading after an early pop. we spoke with the ceo and cofounder about their growth strategy amid rising tech and

trade tensions between washington and beijing. >> in terms of sanctions on ships, for us is nothing new. we have dealt with this for quite some time already, so for our strategy was and remains to be that we will diversify our supply chain and as the manufacturing's of the trips coming out from china or the rest of the world we will try to have more diversified supply chains to further de-risk exposure to geopolitical tensions. >> we met at the beijing auto show this year and i did take a ride in one of your ai equipped

toyota robo cabs in beijing. i do understand your a company that had trials in the bay but also in multiple cities in china, so you kind of have influence in the united states and china. what was the main question as you took your company public in new york? what was the main concerns of potential investors when you went on the roadshow in united states with increased geopolitical tensions? >> the geopolitical tension question was not front and center for investors but rather investors were more focused on the economic side of the robotaxi. people are really interested in figuring out when it will be time for the robotaxi to be launched and deployed and be

profitable. so i think the good news is that people believe that 021 has already finished and now it is time for autonomous driving companies to go to large-scale commercialization. >> what does that look like exactly? right now, you are operational in four of the top cities, but what does that look like over the coming one to two years? i know you will continue to focus primarily in china, but talk to us about competitive pressures you face there as well. >> especially if you're talking about the next two years, our main focus will be on cities in china and just this year we signed a deal to mass-produce

autonomous driving vehicles, so that means in the next two years we will have at least three models coming out of the assembly line launched into the cities in china, so i think with the support of the regulators and residents actually get more familiar with our services, i think we will have a larger fleet, bigger coverage, and hopefully be able to actually have larger scale commercialization. tom: that was the cofounder and ceo of pony ai. we are going to check in on your markets now hearing with european markets, we are currently up .4%. sector by sector, technology gaining 1.6% with relief

trickling through on expectations that maybe the next round of restrictions by the u.s. and biden administration on exports of chip technology to china may be some of those restrictions will not be as onerous as some expected, so tech is getting a left. real estate is taking a hit, down .3%. chemicals also off by .3%. the ftse 100 currently flat. the s&p futures in the u.s. when markets reopen after the thanksgiving holiday, they will reopen for a partial day of trading friday. u.s. futures are poised to gain 10% after losses yesterday. they closed in the red wednesday. in the currency space, your-dollar softer with continued scrutinized moves in the french debt markets with the 10 year currently yielding 10%,

in-line with the equivalent in greece and a reminder of market concern about politics of france and ability or lack of ability for the prime minister to push through that budget this year. prices are up in oil. the middle east continues to focus with the cease-fire continuing to hold between hezbollah and israel. gold is up .4% so far in the session. coming up, we are getting perspective with the european leadership network. we will talk about the region and the impact on the trump administration on those conflicts globally. stay with us f that analysis. this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ tom: welcome back to "bloomberg markets" i'm tom mackenzie in london. the middle east, residents of lebanon are returning after a 60 day cease fire takes hold between israel and hezbollah. they see this as an opportunity for peace. >> i called this an opportunity. it is more than opportunity. it is not a celebration. it is an opportunity for lebanon

today to really see that. to save the country from further devastation, escalation into this war that lebanon has paid a heavy price for. i see this as a very good opportunity backed up by big countries like the united states , like the european union, other major players including saudi arabia, qatar, egypt. we should seize this opportunity and save lebanon. an opportunity that might not come back if we don't know how to handle it. >> not just handle it but also make sure it is implemented properly. if you look at the terms of the truce, they mirror that u.n. resolution 1701 after the 2006 war. it was never fully implemented. what guarantees do we have this time around that hezbollah were

-- will adhere to the terms of the truce? >> times have changed. since 2006 and 2024, things have changed. there's a big shift in the region, a big shift in lebanon. we as a government, you know hezbollah is part of this government for the past few months that there is complete change in the tonality of hezbollah's approach to the next stage in lebanon. to the next lebanon that we dream of. lebanon, the past 75 years has been -- paid a very heavy price for this struggle. we have never witnessed really a serious sovereignty for the government, military, or the lebanese territory.

it's about time, everybody realizes that we cannot keep running away from this. if this country is to be backed up, if the economy is to be supported, if the damages are to be rebuilt, we need to adhere to all of the international laws and we need to become a fully sovereign state. the elected president take this country seriously and trust they could support them to get out of this dark tunnel. tom: lebanon's economy and trade minister speaking to our middle east correspondent. we are on the ground in israel, dan, give us a sense of what is happening on the ground? we are seeing the return of residence to southern parts of that country. we are seeing a similar picture

when it comes to israel. expectations as to whether or not it will hold. dan: i think there is some optimism, it is extremely cautious. despite the messaging, we heard that from the central government of lebanon. to apply its institutional authority through the south, the lebanese military has been outpaced by the return of the lebanese and apparently some hezbollah members among them. that has caused a degree of friction. they have in fact it exchanged fire with lebanese inside of the country. some of them tried to access villages right up at the border fence. many in israel are worried.

they are worried hezbollah has not been properly contained. when hezbollah including armed members roamed freely. many of those residents are in no rush to return. they should not expect to return until this 60 day test period has been completed successfully. tom: you talk about that 60 day timeframe, what happens as that 60 day timeframe comes into closer focus? dan: we are now on day two, what we expect to see is the lebanese armed forces deploying throughout southern lebanon.

they entered on october 1 and then disengaging, slowly withdrawing when that 60 days is complete. in that timeframe they will have been convinced that the israeli military, u.n. peacekeepers are fully searching their authority that they want to see them gathering up whatever they might come across, shutting down whatever has bullet installations they might come across. also by a number of foreign monitors, the united states and france among them. relaying complaints, communication with israel, lebanon, they have been an open war. there's a lot riding on this 60 day period. time will tell if that will continue. tom: indeed with the analysis

there on the ground, thank you very much, indeed. let's stay on this story and bring in the expertise of the policy director at the european leadership network. if we are looking for bright spots in this region, is the cease fire a potential template for a cease-fire between israel and hamas? jane: in a word, no. it shows iran is trying to have some diplomacy with the incoming trump administration. it's about that more than it having direct implications. the cease-fire in lebanon would not be possible without iran acquiescing it. hezbollah has suffered greatly in this recent war.

it has punctured the myth that they had built up over the years , a near invincible force. i don't think for that reason they will be in a rush for a cease-fire over the next 60 days. at the same time, it does very little in gaza. we have seen the outgoing defense minister saying we have no reason to be fighting hamas there anymore. there is no endgame. for lebanon, there has been endgame. everybody knows where he could get to. it is about implementation. most of the world believes it should be part of a palestinian state. there's no serious proposals for

how gaza should be run except apparently continued is really military occupation. tom: huge questions about the fate of the people of gaza. you do see a little bit more clarity in terms of the evolving stance of the iranian leadership as they look ahead to that incoming administration. how do you see that relationship evolving with trump taking office? do we have clarity indeed as to what incoming president trump's agenda is when it comes to iran? jane: like many areas of foreign policy, it is quite unpredictable. under the previous administration, he tight and pressure. he ordered the killing of cost some soleimani, one of the key foreign policy figures who was

responsible for these leaders. the iranians have had very difficult relations with trump before. he left the nuclear deal. he is someone who prides himself on being a dealmaker. he doesn't want the u.s. to be tied up in conflicts overseas. we are seeing people close to the government sending signals, a former spokesman posted an article saying trump has an opportunity to make history and and 40 years of hostility by revolving -- revising the nuclear deal. elon musk met with him, there is a lot of activity. it could go either way, there is

a flurry of interest in diplomacy. also a high risk that they could fail. tom: at least according to agencies in the u.s., they have had some role in assassination attempt's. when it comes to saudi arabia, it was the president who was the architect of the abrahams accord . is there a place for saudi arabia and diplomacy, with the incoming trump administration? jane: i think the story here is about saudi arabia and iran, focusing on saudi arabia and israel. it is key in the long term in having normal relations with israel. it is too difficult politically

with their own population to do that right now. both with the conflict in gaza and with the israeli government openly talking about annexing the west bank. they have said many times there needs to be a credible pathway. that is not there right now. something that has really changed is that saudi arabia and iran or -- are no longer at each other's throats. if there is to be revived nuclear diplomacy, the saudi prince himself could play a key role. we know he has trump's gear. he could speak directly to the iranians. we may see him play the role of go-between. tom: we switch focus to asia if we can.

we have the incoming president with a team. also someone who has been pretty ambiguous about support or lack of support for taiwan. an individual who suggests he is a peacemaker, you will play that role. how do you see the relations between the u.s. and china evolving? jane: what i'm hearing is there is a lot of nervousness as you might imagine. the key concern for them is really about trade and tariffs, what are the risks that if trump goes through that they could then have very damaging effects on china's economy. not just a major strategic issue for them. they get worried when they see the u.s. analyst are casting them as part of a new axis of

evil. some people say pairing them up with russia, they don't want to be seen that way. they want to have a better relationship with the u.s.. the security depends on the concept of u.s. support throughout the asia-pacific region. everybody including the south koreans as well are wondering how much will that support be forthcoming within the trump camp about whether america first, sustaining the privacy as a superpower or whether it really means focusing much more at home and seeing issues like taiwan or ukraine as regional conflicts that aren't the direct business of the u.s. tom: jane of the european leadership network.

with the insight and value that we have for our viewer in terms of unpacking potential scenarios. thank you for joining us this thursday. talking about donald trump's proposed tariffs on how china is nervous about the prospect. part of our interview is coming up next. stay with us. this is bloomberg. (♪♪) (♪♪)

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tom: welcome back to "bloomberg markets, checking in your markets for you right now. relief coming through for the tech sector. maybe it additional restrictions on china, maybe not as rigid as some would have expected. the gamers on your sector. real estate up by 4/10 of a percent.

the equities and of course sovereign debt of france, wrangling over the budget still, that risk is still there of collapsing that government. the european and french markets gaining 4/10 of a percent. we keep an eye on french debt. very modest bid right now. down two basis points to that 3% level, almost on par with yields you are getting from the benchmark equivalent. brent, $73 a barrel, up 8/10 of 1%. gold up 4/10 of 1% so far trading at 2645. investors remain uncertain on the impact of president-elect trump's tariff. many concerned they could have adverse effect on the global economy.

the policies may lead to higher inflation and lower growth. >> some of the economic policies of trump may lead to keeping tax rates below the economy. many of the policies of higher inflation and lower economic growth. the first thing that will be announced will be tariffs against mexico, canada, and china. we might have up to 60% against china. the also have the massive deportation of people. the migration has kept the wage growth, definitely mass deportation, we want to not only make those tax cuts permanent.

no taxes on tips and over time, social security, so on and so on. too much demand, inflationary. you might want to weaken the dollar amount. getting out of the paris accord will make climate change much worse, increase food prices and things of that sort. tom: a lot of things are what a bitcoiner would say. there is now the bitcoin etf's, they are over $100 billion. there's talk it could be a strategic reserve. is there anything that could move you to add bitcoin to your etf and to help accomplish some of these goals? nouriel: bitcoin is highly volatile.

if you want to restore the value, you will not put bitcoin into your portfolio. the assets we are thinking about, the ones when you have over and higher inflation. whether it is short treasuries, gold is a hedge against inflation. geopolitics, financial crisis, some exposure to add commodities that will do well and have sustainable rates. they have historically done well in these times. i'm skeptical for lots of reasons about cryptocurrencies and bitcoin. they are not currencies. if you want ratio rather than activity you want to stay away from those types of assets. tom: that conversation of course

started on the question of the tariff threat coming from incoming president donald trump and his administration. for more on that story let's bring in brendan murray who leads bloomberg's trade coverage on what is unfolding when it comes to questions of tariffs. we saw a pretty volatile mexican peso in the session today as we passed comments from leadership and trump in light of the conversation that was had. what is our understanding of the motivations of president-elect donald trump? do we get day one tariffs or is this a negotiating ploy prior to him taking office towards the end of january? >> like you said, it has been a real roller coaster week starting with those tariffs that the president threatened on canada and mexico. it was a preview of what is to come in the second administration.

you had mexico taking a much more defensive position. these are american companies, they are all over mexico. you will hurt yourself if you have mexican exports to the u.s. canada took a more diplomatic approach, they got on the phone immediately and said we are not the source of the drug problem or the migrant problem. the end result was donald trump got to post on social media last night that he had a deal with mexico, that they will close the border. mexico's president took issue with that saying we don't close borders, we build bridges. what you saw this week in this episode was a lot more negotiating tactics by the president. 25% tariffs on the biggest trading partners would crush the u.s. economy.

particularly the auto industry, the manufacturing states, whether it is a negotiating tool , that's what it feels like at this stage. tom: these creations operate in a trading deal, rewired, renegotiating. what are the implications? what did the state imply when it comes to that trade agreement between the countries? brendan: if those 25% tariffs were to be enclosed -- imposed, there would be lawsuits lighting up outside the white house. effectively, 25% tariffs would blow a hole in that agreement and raise a lot of legal questions. tom: thank you very much.

brendan will be very busy in the weeks, months, years ahead. on the latest with the tariff threat from the incoming president trump. the reaction from mexico and canada as well to that tension. we will speak to the bank ahead of monetary policy to get a view on the position of these markets given concern about tariffs, inflation, and uncertain path ahead for some of these global central banks at least. we will hear from the president of ecb, christine lagarde. we speak about the path ahead for the european central bank, an issue that became in line with expectations. now that we've adjusted the viewer on the federal reserve. european stocks up 4/10 of a percent.

nasdaq 100 futures looking to add 50 points. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

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tom: welcome to "bloomberg markets" i'm tom mackenzie in london. 10 year yields match greece for the first time ever. russia ramping up strikes in ukraine, taking aim at energy

infrastructure delaying another meeting as they face concerns about oversupply in global crude markets. european markets posting gains of 4/10 of a percent. we keep an eye of france. we get you the details on that story. the government suggesting they may be able to compromise. i will bring you a check on that shortly. the u.s. market reopens for a partial day of trading on friday, happy thanksgiving to all of our american viewers. up to tenths of 1%. keep an eye on euro-dollar, i mentioned that, the friends sovereign debt. the 10 year over in france.

down three basis points. a little bit given we have heard some comments around this subject of the budget. clearly a momentous day. up tenths of 1%. currently up for tenths of a percent. the country faces a deepening political pressure, some of that easing as we look at the story of french debt. a possible no-confidence vote causing uncertainty and fueling those investor concerns. let's get a check on the latest political situation. we bring in our french correspondent. we have a vote on pension reform and repeal of the consequential that emmanuel macron passed

through. they will vote on whether to repeal pension reform, will that pass? >> that vote is mostly symbolic. it is heavily charged given the circumstances. if they join forces with the left-wing, that means this vote is going to pass. it doesn't bode very well if you have a no-confidence vote against the prime minister over the next few days or weeks. one comment this morning tried to reassure the markets. he said he was ready to make some concessions in order to avoid a government collapse over the next few days.

this had a slight impact on the spread between the french and german 10 year markets. with it narrowing a little, with concessions we will see over the next few days, they are ready to forget some tax increases and perhaps look for more spending cuts. they have already promised 60 billion euros of savings in that next budget. bringing the deficit from around 6% of gdp to 5% next year. we will see what kind of concessions that mean. if these concessions are enough to please the king maker in the french parliament. tom: what are we hearing from marine le pen? is she ready to play ball and play with the prime minister

given the pressure on french assets? or is she going to play the wrecking ball? caroline: over the past few days it seems like she was not exactly ready to make concessions until they really listen to what they have to say. no more taxes on electricity. she doesn't want any delay on pensions on inflation. she actually wants some spending cuts on immigration. this is what she had to say a couple of days ago. >> if the budget stays the same, this is not a surprise. we have set at the last three months. i'm telling you, if this budget is not approved, the budget of last year will apply and there are less taxes for the working

or middle classes. caroline: obviously marine le pen has her own agenda. she wants to be a candidate in 2027 for the presidential elections. she has her own issues with this trial she is facing with embezzlement of her party and have a verdict on that in march. lots of issues at stake here. the french divided 50-50 on what they should say after christmas. one thing they are punishing is the opinion on the french president, emmanuel macron, according to 60% of the french actually say macron could -- should quit if this government collapses. tom: we will see if macron takes heed of that advice. thank you very much, indeed for that important update. let's get some more perspective to keep lens on the market

reaction. central banks thinking about the rates ahead. we bring in the head of fx and monetary policy at dz bank. what are the linkages between political wrangling on the budget and the role of the ecb as we see inflation in spain the easing? is there a link between the politics of france and the considerations of the monetary policy team at the head of the ecb? sonja: yes and no. we have seen increasing linkages between monetary and fiscal policy. the ecb is the proud owner of a vast amount of government bonds from the eu states. obviously that is an issue. i don't think currently what's going on in france has an immediate impact on what they will be doing.

the ecb is looking at a decline, regrowth, the ability that they could cut rates. i think for the time being, what's going on in france is in at the top of their priority list. that could change if the situation escalates. i think they will focus on inflation and have an ion growth for the time being. tom: do they go with 50 basis points in december? the ecb? sonja: i don't think so. there have been quite a bit of speculation after the last data in the market returned to the speculation that they will have to move faster and more aggressively. i don't think there's any evidence, you have them saying we need to be careful. calling for more aggressive easing. the middle ground, 25 basis

points, combined that with the signal that made cuts will follow consecutively at each point going forward. tom: that will be the dovish signal around consequential or sequential cuts. you are still bearish on euro-dollar? he sees parody for the euro-dollar. it seems like you aligned with that view, parody is now in focus. sonja: when we start looking at the trump scenario in april this year, we have been saying that we will see parody, it has stabilized a little bit now.

we are in for a bit of the wait and see period. there is a lot of noise coming. the latest announcement that trump plans to implement tariffs when he takes office makes a lot of noise. there's a time when we have to wait and then we get a much better idea of what he's going to do. we are in for a bit of a more quiet holiday season before things start kicking off again this year. tom: it is not fully priced yet in terms of those potential terms. where else is your lens when it comes to the fx space? the mexican peso has been volatile for the reasons you mentioned. the pricing is still mismatched around the tariff risk. sonja: in mexico, the peso did

recover that they had the phone conversation. there is a little bit of uncertainty. there's a feeling that we share that this is just a threat for the time being. as long as mexico takes some measures. all of those pickup trucks that trump voters like to drive come across the border from mexico. i think in the currency space there is potential for dollar strength to come through. very few currencies certainly in the first half of the year. things get more murky when we look at the second half, of course. tom: what expectations are you making around the consciousness of the federal reserve around

dollar strength in the first half of that story? sonja: the fed is in a difficult position right now. they have started cutting rates. the question is how much time will they have? this is going to depend on when the tariffs come. that will have an impact on inflation in the u.s. right away. it makes sense for them to continue cutting now as long as they can. they know there is an end to that. markets have been speculating. i don't see why they should. they have the opportunity to do that now. donald trump has an interesting view on this. he likes the strong dollar because it represents strength. on the other hand he wants a weaker dollar. it is a mixed bag with him. i don't think they will interfere with currency.

they have a history of having a stronger policy. they don't actually do anything to make it strong. the fed will continue to cut rates for the time being. tom: the fed continues, the window is open now. a 6% chance of that happening. the end of the year, november, we have our own inflation challenges, service price challenges in the u.k., does that seem rational to you? our markets underestimating the bank of england and have to go faster? sonja: the inflation is proving to be quite stubborn. the way it applies to other central banks, we have to balance the risks here.

i do think it makes sense to move cautiously. they won't be quickly, it won't be aggressively. they may be able to stand up to a stronger dollar. tom: the boe next move and parody should be expected. with dollar dominance in the first half of 2025, thank you very much for your time. russia's president with a new warning aimed at ukraine as they target the energy infrastructure of that country. we bring you the latest on that front. stay with us, this is bloomberg. ♪

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tom: welcome back to "bloomberg markets."

i'm tom mackenzie in london, happy thanksgiving to everyone celebrating. european markets up 4/10 of 1%. felt most prominently in the tech sector. your individual indexes, seeing grain date -- gains in france. the euro-dollar at 1.05. down 1/10 of 1%. we continue to scrutinize the moves in the sovereign debt space of france after the cost reach the equivalent for the first time. a little move into that sovereign yield. brent $73 per barrel. gold pushing back, gaining in the session as well gaining 4/10 of a percent. russia is coming through with a new warning this morning to ukraine. vladimir putin saying it could strike ukraine's capital with

new ballistic missiles. bloomberg's henry meyer has been reporting about the story and joins us for the latest. this was after the russians used a new missile about a week ago in an attack on ukraine, what is the latest on this threat coming through from poulin and his acolytes in moscow? henry: we have seen russia is responding to new attacks that have been made by ukraine using missiles supplied by the u.s. president putin today explicitly threatened to target what he called the decision-making centers in kyiv. that would be in reference to the leadership of ukraine. what we have seen overnight is a massive missile assault on ukraine's power infrastructure, about 90 missiles were fired. that of course has been done by

russia in the past. the threat from russia now is experimental intermediate range ballistic missile. we don't know how many there are in russia's arsenal. we are in a period of escalation now. it is a question of seeing how far this takes us. tom: what is the ability for ukraine to defend itself against these new missiles? what is our understanding for that ability of defense? henry: if you are talking about the missile that was used last week, that is pretty much impossible to defend. the other types of missiles, many of them were actually intercepted. we don't know how many of these new missiles russia has. it is obviously going to have to use those sparingly. we have the threat hanging there

of nuclear escalation. last week you recall putin updated the nuclear doctrine for the use of atomic weapons under certain circumstances including massive conventional attack by ukraine. he is brandishing these threats on an increasing basis at the moment. tom: indeed is the escalation continues between ukraine and russia. let's stay on the story and get more details in terms of the bloomberg big take stories of the day. the united states is the largest supplier of weapons. here of may have to provide more support under the incoming trump administration. rose mattson joins me on the fantastic deep dive into the data, statistics around who supplies ukraine, how much,

which parts of the military system are supplied. and the vulnerability should date decide to pull some of that support. just topline, what have we learned in terms of how dependent ukraine is on that u.s. military support? rose: they really set it out in a pretty stout way. they have been supporting them primarily financially. half of the weaponry has been coming from the u.s. missiles, rockets, ammunition. it is clear that europe is not in a position to replicate what the u.s. is doing. we could see the biden administration start to front run a lot of military aid knowing donald trump will be in the white house and he's unlikely to support the continuation of military aid and instead wants to bring that war to a close. we will potentially step up on

this. could they really? they have issues around their own stocks alone. production is not keeping up with that. they have to maintain their own stocks at home. they can't just send everything to ukraine. the production is not meeting the supply that is needed. the high level being fired by ukraine into russia, they are u.s.-made, primarily. or from the u.k. the challenge israel. europe may want to step up but they are not united on that front either. could they? very unlikely. tom: what are the options that the europeans are looking at? is sourcing options another opinion being considered? is joint debt around the spending around infrastructure and defense being talked about more seriously? could a new german government counter that? rosalind: there are a lot of

challenges. during the pandemic we did see that come together with joint funding. you push the debt down the road. there has been some talk about doing that. you put those together collectively and use it to buy ammunition. having to pay for it all. that again requires all the members of the eu agreeing to that. that is very uncertain. germany has an allergy about how much they go in terms of the debt ratio. that is underpinning the recent government crisis we are seeing in germany and the election coming. would germany have the appetite to go there? that is a big question mark. we have seen this question for decades around europe being ramped up. ammunition being produced out of some of these countries in the baltic states. these were real deadlocks -- bedrock's of supply.

there's a lot of expertise to ukraine about defense production. it is size and scope and the challenge is can you do that fast enough? a lot of big defense companies we say could you do that? we could. they want the long-term contracts because it takes a lot of money to restock this stuff. there's lots of complexities about when or how this could be done. tom: what is our understanding on the timeframe about how ukraine could hold on? if that is it from the u.s. and 50% is withdrawn. what kind of timeframe are we looking at? europe is not well placed to make up for that. rosalind: if the u.s. fully withdraw support and donald trump says we need to have an end to this war, we are talking months before we get to some kind of negotiation. through the winter, there are signs that russia is starting to target ukrainian energy infrastructure again. brandishing these bigger

weapons. that seems to be about positioning ukraine, russia, for the reality that talks are coming. we are talking about the early half of next year, possibly we will get to some kind of negotiation. ukraine will probably want to keep fighting. if they go out of weaponry, they will have to get to the table and that seems to possibly be 2025. tom: thank you very much. well worth a read, the bloomberg big take with a deep dive analysis on the challenges ukraine faces if that support from the u.s. is withdrawn. the role that the u.s. has played in terms of the military backing up until now. plenty more coming up. james athey as european bonds hit a record. the focus on france. this is bloomberg. ♪

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tom: welcome back to "bloomberg markets." i'm tom mackenzie in london. given concerns about the french budget, some of the concerns have been alleviated by assurances from some ministers that they are willing to negotiate. european markets are gaining up .4%, as i mentioned. s&p futures, u.s. futures, losses yesterday, of course the u.s. is closed for trading today. nasdaq 100 futures, split the board and has a look at cross

asset, you ozone in focus. yields are actually down almost four basis points, but they have had the highest level we've seen compared to greek debt for quite some time. euro-dollar $1.05. gold is getting a lift as well come up .4%. fixed income funds manager, jane, we will start with the question of -- james, we will start with the question of france. if we get a budget that is passed, if we get a government in france that continues to work, does not collapse with a vote of confidence, is it an opportunity to buy french debt? james: hey, tom, good afternoon. yeah. i'm sure a few people would see that as a trading opportunity, obviously. we've seen volatility pop up a little bit in the last couple of days, but it does appear that people are already willing to

buy that i guess just on the valuation basis. we look further into the future than a day or a week or two, and on that basis, we still have significant concerns. obviously in order to get a budget passed, there's going to need to be compromising of the physical trajectory and without physical suggest -- adjustments, that is a significant breach of various roles, particularly at the eu levels. it is a really difficult balancing act, even if they can get a budget over the line, the 56, 7 years, to see in a negative shock and have a deleterious effect on the budget trajectory. we don't see france's good value at 90 over germany. tom: james, given that longer-term view, and we will move on from france, with that

longer-term view, do you see a further repricing across the french curve in terms of price down and yields up if you think about those longer-term challenges? james: yeah. we do. if you look at how the trade is between the eurozone, they are obviously a credit component, so they do tend to correlate quite well with credit spreads, and they also are incredibly tight, particularly given that in europe, we are already starting to see the economy turned to the downstage of the cycle. traditionally you would expect it to be cyclical in that aspect. we get slowing growth normalizing inflation to begin with, ultimately, i think we can see it, you know, below target in europe. it does start to, you know, suggest that there might be some asset distress within risk facing assets and spreads should widen. we think the correlation to

spreads is negative here. tom: what a satiation are you making between the cycle of cuts expected through the ecb into and through 25, james? james: we are looking for 30 days this point below the basis points, to get to 1.7, and that is pretty slow could lots of the ecb rhetoric at the moment supports that market pricing, but "the pulse if you -- but of course if you look at forward metrics that might influence inflation, things like gdp growth to spot inflation, which is pretty backward looking, i think the risk to inflation are definitely skewed to the downside. so if inflation ceases to be a problem for the ecb in terms of easing policy, then the growth outlook absolutely requires the policy is not just neutral but

easy and probably significantly so. so we would say rates are definitely going to under shoot versus what markets price in. tom: rates under shoot versus what the market prices in in europe. james, jobs data out of the u.s. next week. how consequential could that be in terms of expectations for the fed? is it still a split decision when it comes to december? are you leaning one way or the other? james: i feel like a bit of a coin toss. we had so much fed communication over the last three months, which has contradicted itself. i think the fed, like many market participants, has been laid on quite a journey by data, which continues to be confusing come conflicting, confounding, and inconsistent through time, and has allowed the fed to get too far in either direction over the last six or 12 months. i think they may have done that again in recent times, but certainly inflation data that we've seen recently suggests in

the short-term that may be some of the downside progress has slowed, but we are very close to target on pce, and core pce is not far from target and locked those performance that are keeping it propped up, you know, are really lagged in terms of how they are in economic conditions. you cannot to ignore the fact that a lot of the day that suggests that the economy is strong, and looking into the future, looking that it could reignite inflation. i think the dual mandate would allow them to cut, but if we get a hot payrolls report, i think that could push them towards a hold. so it does feel like a coin toss. on balance, i think they will cut, but i will not say that with a high degree of confidence. tom: and, of course, there's the uncertainty around the trumpet administration's policy agenda and how that is synchronized on whether that is tariffs or the

crackdown on immigration, illegal immigration. i was in the room at an event yesterday with a fractious who i will not name, and they said look, what is being whispered right now in some parts of these markets is a question about whether or not the fed at some point next year might even have to hike interest rates. james: yeah. it is a really interesting, right? because if tariffs essentially should be a shock to the price level. inflation is a process, a general rise in the level of prices. it is not sector-specific moves and relative prices, which is essentially what tariffs predominately will do. if you are a tariff which we increased significantly, you will see second and third effects, obviously energy, oil, those things are significant in that regard. so anything that should be a one-off shop to the price level, particularly when it is supply-side dripping, is something the fed cannot

control, and generally theory says they should look through it. we seen in recent years that the fed's relationship and other relationships with the supply-side have been very mixed, and they have been very struggling to deal with some of these supply-side issues. what happens in terms of retaliation matters. in terms of the labor market, you know, we are looking that supply creates its own demand, what we seen as of the u.s. economy has been prepared -- propel forward in terms of demand conditions by immigration, and that is not necessarily inflationary because it is a supply shock as well. first and foremost, if people are being removed from the population, the initial impact is actually a drop in demand, and it might only be later that we see that show up in wage costs. and, again, that is a very difficult problem for the fed to deal with. in terms of tax policy, you know, this has to go through congress. 2017, december 16 before the tax cut and jobs act was passed, and that was when republicans had

full control of congress. of course, that inflation is due to expire, so he needs to be rolled over as a priority. so trying to type it up with further stimulus, presumably, will make it even more difficult to get through congress. may be timing of that good news is a little backloaded relative to some of those more difficult to assess supply, tariffs, and market policy. so it is very tricky. tom: yeah. very interesting, james. before we let you go, how are you adjusting your portfolio before year end? what are you buying and what are you avoiding? james: we've been using this rise in yields to add to duration. we think things have gone far enough. the predominant driver of rise in yields is greater data in the u.s. you see economic supplies and the sea rising in a 45-degree fashion, and it is notable to us that that has started to roll over, and as it does so, treasury yields have started to come down. we have added a bit of duration.

we have reduced our exposure to the u.s. dollar as well. that's probably one of the big ones. we've been long the dollar since the summer, very much expecting that a rise in yields would be a u.s.-light exceptionalism-driven phenomenon. we think may be in the short, there's quite a lot of good news indefinitely heavy positioning along the dollar, so we have tactically gone the other way. tom: interesting color on the dollar, underweight the dollar and long-duration. james athey with analysis, from marlborough, appreciate your insight as ever. investors also remain uncertain, as we have been discussing, about the impact of trump tariffs threats, of course, with many concerned they could have adverse effects on the global economy. james has given his view in terms of how that might be sequenced and where tax cuts, for example, may come and where tariffs may land. another has warned that the policy, particularly when it comes to tariffs and a crackdown

on immigration could lead to higher inflation and potentially lower growth as well in the u.s. take a listen. >> some of our economic policies may lead to high economic growth for business, keeping tax rates low, but unfortunately, and indication of high inflation and low economic growth. the fern -- third thing announced his it will be tariffs against mexico, canada, and china, and that is only the beginning. he has that we might have up to 20% tariffs on all our trade partners come up to 60% against china. you won't see mass deportation of people. the migration has increased the labor wage growth, increase the labor supply, and economic growth, so massive inflation would be deflationary. you don't want to make the tax cuts permanent as you make other

promises. social security come on income earned abroad, and so on. so much demand come inflationary. even if you want to weaken the dollar, that will be inflationary. getting out of the paris accord, make climate change much worse, raise food prices. >> is interesting, nouriel, and a lot of things you just said is what a big coiner would say is why you should buy big coin. there's talk that it could be a strategic concern. you have gold in the portfolio. is there anything that could move you to add bitcoin to your etf? nouriel: bitcoin is highly volatile.

if you want to see a form a value, you will not put bitcoin into your portfolio. kind of asked that we are actually -- the kind of asked that we are thinking about is what will do well in higher inflation, gold is a hedge against inflation, geopolitics, financial crisis, some exposure to commodities that will do well in the world of inflation, climate change, environmentally sustainable risks. so the portfolio of assets that have done well in these types of risks. reasons -- a lot of reasons about cheaper currencies like big coin, because they are not currencies, and if you want wealth based around high level activity, you want to stay away from those assets. tom: ok, that of course is nouriel roubini of her really macro associates with bloomberg's eric voltaren.

coming up, a meeting, facing a dilemma over a supply for details on what is causing the friction at opec-plus and what it means, of course, with its global oil market. that is coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪

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but the challenge in delivering technology that way is the infrastructure is not set up for scale for that technology. cardiology has shown over decades that you can now deliver millions of stem cell pacemakers a year, so now we are translating what is known from cardiac, and i think we are entering a period where treatment activity delivered from a catheter into the brain are going to become vast. tom: welcome back to "bloomberg markets." i'm tom mackenzie in london. two oil now where opec-plus has confirmed bloomberg's story that it is delaying kids meeting. let's go to james for the details. thank you for taking the time. there's a lot of different factors obviously feeding into the global oil market, but let's

start with the oil opec-plus -- opec-plus decision to delay. what do you in the team read into that decision? james: well, it is a pressing arrangement for the ministry to keep them from meeting, but in the past, when opec has delayed a meeting, it has tended to be because they are trying to find a consensus, trying to get everyone on board with whatever the agreement as before the meeting happens. that way they can avoid a potential for a last-minute hiccup on the day of the meeting or the worst case scenario, which is where the meeting would end without a deal. so we are still trying our best to report out the details of what we are looking at. the current expectation is that they are not in a position to increase production as planned in january, and they may need to delay that increased by several months at least. and this delay perhaps would suggest that whatever they are looking at, and we know that they have been, guessing the

possibility of a delay, that they don't quite have everybody on board for that yet. tom: ok, that is interesting. so they may not even have the ability to increase output even if they come to the decision that is what they want to do. what is our understanding about the other challenges, james, at opec-plus is facing come of the demand-supply picture? james: well, the main challenge is, because there is so much supply coming on next year, most of it from america, the u.s. is pretty strong, but you have brazil adding more supply, and demand is pretty weak, because china is not going as fast, the economy is not doing great elsewhere. so even without any extra moves from opec, there is said to be quite a significant surplus next year, which could weigh on prices. and if opec were to go ahead with its planned production increase, price control even further, you know, perhaps below the $60's from the $70's where

they are now, that is why most opec members do not want to have , to make investments to cover social spending. they want to increase production, but if they do, prices would fall, and they cannot afford that. tom: yeah. ok, so $60 a barrel. what is the discipline right now across opec-plus members, in terms of sticking to their quotas and targets? and to what extent is that may be a friction point as well that we should focus in on? james: that clearly is a friction point. the main countries that have been failing to meet the production targets have been iraq and kazakhstan. they announce the ministers from saudi arabia and russia have viewed those countries, obviously applying pressure for them to improve their compliance with their quotas, to cut production, because in the case of especially iraq, iraq is overproducing from what it is

supposed to be and also failing to make conversation from previous overproducing earlier on this year. there's a lot of pressure on these countries to cut back, but honestly, they have a very poor record of actually complain, even when they are under great pressure. , right? ok, james -- tom: ok, james herron, thank you, opec-plus delaying their meeting, we will see what they do given all the competing pressures across the cartel. ai space right now, text, shares of pony ai fell in u.s. trading at their debut after an early top. we talked to their ceo about their growth strategy amid, of course, rising tech and trade tensions between washington and beijing. james: for us, it is nothing

new. we have dealt with this for quite some time already, so for our strategy was and remains to be that will diversify our supply chain, and i think as more and more manufacturing of the chips, coming out of, either in china or the rest of the world, we will try to have more diversified supply chains to further de-risk our exposure to geopolitical tensions. steve: hi, james, this is steve engle here. we met at the beijing auto show this year, and i did take a ride and you are pony ai-equipped robo cap -- in one of your pony ai-equipped robo calves in

beijing -- cabs in beijing get you have influence in both united states and china, obviously, but what was the main question that you took your company public in new york, what was the main concern, if you will come of potential investors when you went on that road tour in the united states, with increased geopolitical tensions? james: surprising, actually, the geopolitical tension was not at front and center of the investors but rather the investors more, actually more focused on the economical side of the robotaxi. people are really interested to figuring out when will be a time for the robotaxi to actually be scaled, deploy, and be profitable, so the good news is that people who really believing that 0:1 has already finished,

and now is the time for companies to really go to the large-scale commercialization. >> what does that look like exactly, james? because right now you are in four of the top tier 1 cities? i know you will continue to focus your effort primarily in china, but talk about competitive pressures you face there as well. james: yes, our -- especially if you're talking about the next two years, our main focus will be on the tier 1 cities of china, and actually just this year, we also signed a deal with two companies to mass-produce autonomous driving vehicles, so that means the next years, we will have at least three models

coming out of the assembly line that will be launched in china. so i think, with the support of the regulations, and the residents actually get more familiar with our services, i think we will have a much larger fleet, have a bigger coverage, and hopefully the world will be able to actually have a much larger scale commercialization. tom: that is james payne, cofounder and ceo of pony ai, speaking to bloomberg's "the china show," the prospect for driverless cars in the u.s. and china. holding on an individual index basis, the ftse up, over in germany, the dac getting .6%. s&p futures also pointing to gains and losses that came through for u.s. stocks

yesterday, up .1% for the s&p 500, of course, closed for trading today, given it is thanksgiving, but will reopen for a partial day of trading on friday. nasdaq futures just shy of .3%, looking to add 54 points. cross assets as well, a little scrutiny in terms of selling pressure coming through for french debt. yields currently actually down four basis points, so a little bit money moving into french sovereign debt, which had come earlier in the session today, reached a level in terms of yield equivalent to those in greece, the first time we've seen that on the budget angst in france. euro-dollar $1.05. a couple of our guests calling for euro parity in the next couple of months. gold gaining as well come up .4%. coming up, the economist at idr economics, we will check in on

the black friday sales pitch and what it tells us about the consumer and the health. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ i can't believe you corporate types are still at it. just stop calling each other rock stars. and using workday to put finance and h.r. on one platform. tim, you are a rock star. using responsible ai doesn't make you a rock star.

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tom: welcome to "bloomberg markets." i'm tom mackenzie in london. france match his grace for the first time ever on rising concerns about stagflation and political uncertainty in france. the economy minister says the truce with israel is an opportunity for peace. we bring you our interview coming up this hour. and bracing for record levels on black friday shopping tomorrow. an analysis at a deep dive ahead of that event. the markets right now, happy thanksgiving, by the way, to everyone out there who celebrates it. the u.s. is obviously closed for that reason. markets will be back in trading for eight partial day on friday for european markets up .4%, despite the political angst over in france. equity futures, when they reopen

for trading, nasdaq futures looking up at .3%. the euro is under pressure once again. a couple of our guests talking about euro parity with the dollar, potentially as soon as the first quarter of 2025. you're on the run now, down .2%. that pressure continuing down now. the benchmark 10 year after the debt in france matched that of greece for the first time on record. a move for the first time in french sovereign debt. brent up .5 percent. gold is gaining in the session come up .3%. the yellow matters -- mental seeing some upside. thanksgiving is underway, and getting underway, holiday shopping kicks off of course with black friday tomorrow. lauren saidel-baker, economist

at idr economics, thank you so much for joining us. what are you looking at this black friday, in terms of the shopping season, the discounts, and the health and robustness of the u.s. consumer? lauren: overall, our consumer is very strong, even with the bite inflation has taken out of our way just we are seeing increasing real income, so that is an entire purchasing power that our consumer has ever had in history, so i'm personally quite optimistic about the best holiday season we at idr expect about 3% retail sales growth this year. i will say it is a shortened holiday shopping season post black friday. thanksgiving comes about as late as it could in the calendar. only 26 days between black friday and christmas this year, but we have seen retailers start their sales earlier. we actually saw even the october retail sales numbers came in a little bit unseasonably hot. so it seems like we poured forward some of that activity.

i'm not too worried about the calendar causing any constraints. tom: ok, so there's a calendar adjustment we need to take into consideration. the consumer is looking pretty robust. what about the retailers to slash prices, what is the discounting you are seeing in terms of the historical context of that? lauren: historically, the black friday shopping season looks different post-pandemic. we are not rushing into stores and fighting few people for a big-screen tv's anymore. a lot of it is done online. it makes it easier to compare prices to what we see this year especially if that retailers are doing discounts, maybe black friday at some is not that ultimate low price, right? that's not the only day of the year that you will get this sale. again, we seen them start earlier for that short and season. we are you have also seen consumers be a little bit more savvy. we know what that price is when we need to pull the trigger. i think there are two aspects of

this come about the consumer with the higher inflation environment for those good deals, may be looking to trade down in quality, buy the storebrand coming, not brand name in some cases, if it means saving a few dollars. retailers are aware of that, and they are pulling forward to get those dollars earlier. tom: that is interesting, so maybe a bit of a trade down and maybe a more savvy, a consumer who is scrutinizing some of these deals a little bit more closely. does that speak to caution, or is this just a consumer that is just willing now to kind of trade down a little bit to get more bang for their buck? lauren: i think that is a big part of it. the consumer likes to say they are cautious. anytime you see consumer sentiment numbers come out, recently they have been a little bit subdued, the retail spending numbers do not necessarily match that sentiment trend, so i'm convinced consumers don't always know how we will behave could we know in theory how we should

behave, but this time around again with inflation, accumulative inflation having done so much psychological damage to the consumer, really smart retail is out there are the ones who have a good, better, best model. in this current business cycle, we can offer the consumer a little bit more protection in this inflation linked type of environment, so, again, it depends on where you fall on the income distribution, it depends on if you are a homeowner who locked in a low mortgage rate versus a renter who is feeling that inflation bite a little more acutely, everyone has their own inflation measure, so there's a little bit more disparity this time around. tom: that is really interesting, isn't it, the breakdown in terms of different parts of the consumer. yes, if you are reaching for a 7% mortgage, that will affect maybe how far you are going to go. do we have a sense on how much of this is going to be on credit cards, how much debt consumers are prepared to pile up as they look at some of these offers that are out there? or is there still a cash pile,

that the u.s. household can dip into iago lauren: well, we do have higher incomes today, so wage inflation has been the stickiest aspect of inflation. the good news from our consumer's we do have some of that additional, again, wage growth to fall back on. now, we have spent down some savings since our pandemic-era peak, and we've also turned more to credit cards but i don't like to look at the total amount of credit card debt, but i like to look at the share of credit card debt, what that accounts for the average annual income. today that is about 14.6% for our consumer, which is rising generally but we had special blows during the stimulus when a lot of our u.s. consumers took our stimulus money, and we paid down that high apr credit card debt first. so we made a smart move, and it makes today's metrics look like they are worsening, which they are, but in all honesty, this is about as good as those metrics have been in history. we are watching credit card debt. we have very low delinquencies,

still very low overall numbers, right? the total to shared income. but it is something to watch this season going forward. tom: what is your view, you know, without economist hat on, lauren, with how inflation adjusts into 2025 and a breakdown particularly when it comes to goods? we seen a lot of work done, of course, in terms of disinflation in the u.s. versus the services component of the basket. how do you see that story evolving next year iago lauren: you are correct. the good side of inflation is enhanced in the u.s. right now. it is the surge sector, a very tight labor market keeping wage inflation higher. that is why inflation overall is a little bit stickier. as i look forward into 2025, if we do get policies put in place like, say, universal tariffs, that could affect the good side of inflation, again, starting to break those numbers up. our labor market is still very tight, from historic levels, so i don't see much relief coming on the horizon come in fact, i

think by the second half of 2025, we should expect to see inflation hitting back up again. i think that will limit, first of all, how many cuts the federal reserve can do -- sorry, i'm not expecting ultra low interest rates to return, but, again, that is psychological going to affect the consumer, who just heard inflation, headline after headline, day in and day out for several years. tom: yeah. indeed they have, and yet the u.s. consumer has shown that remarkable resilience. his next year of the year when that really gets put to the test, lauren, or maybe tax cuts, the incoming administration, maybe some other policy measures support the consumer? when does that story start to really break? do you see any friction when it comes to the pressure on the consumer? you pointed to some of it next year. lauren: yes, so there is pressure, but, again, we are so resilient. our consumer base in this country is in such a rock solid

base, and it all comes back to that tight labor market. so if the consumer were to break come it would first take our labor market material loosening. we have a very high labor rate participation, high unemployment rate today, rising wages. almost everyone who wants a job today can find one. we do see rising wages, more people making more money. that is tough for businesses who are having trouble hiring in some sectors, but for consumers overall, especially in the opal tight -- ultra tight market by construction, this is a stable foundation, money coming in, especially with wage inflation outcome -- outpacing general consumer price inflation, that is not wearing down how much income we have. we are in a better place today, even if we do like to complain about those high prices on store shelves. tom: before we let you go come on the jobs market, because you talk about the tightness in the labor market, are there parts of the labor market that are looking a little softer? parts of the labor market where you are scrutinizing the data, causing some concern, or is this

a broad stroke story, a continuing labor strength? lauren: sure. so, again, the labor market in general is very strong. we see some pockets, the tech sector, for example, we heard it is off in that front. personally, i think the tech sector might have over hired, so this might be a rightsizing of employment there. areas like manufacturing have given up some gains in recent months, but, again, still very tight by historical standards, and as i mentioned, construction, that is the tight one. it is so hard to find some of these very skilled trades people. tom: lauren, thank you so much. happy thanksgiving. lauren saidel-baker, taking time out from the holiday of itr economic summit to give us the outlook on black friday, retail, and the health of that still pretty robust u.s. consumer. looking into 2020 well, of course, speaking of retail, -- looking into 2025 as well.

scarlet fu and romaine bostick looking at the future of the department store model. >> we are flagship focused, so that is one big difference, and honestly i think the flagships will have a bright future in the next 10, 20 years. it is not, i think of a problem at all. i think the problem is managing the latin -- the large footprint. bloomingdale's, we have a chance to be in prime locations and side mall, very strong locations. i think we have more opportunity than threats in the future. i really do think that we have a blue bright future, but it has to reinvent itself from the perspective of the government but also our brand partners. we have to be relevant for our brand partners and rethink the model from this point of view. scarlet: how about the broader retail landscape overall? are there too many stores in the u.s. overall? olivier: when you look at the true market data, the market is

slightly growing, the potential of online is greener. for sure overall in the u.s., slightly decreasing, so, yes, there will probably be some reserve. it's why you have to challenge yourself to be relevant for your customers but also for your partners. romaine: i have to ask you, when you look at other retailers, and it does not have to be a direct you walk into their stores where you shop on their website, who do you just say, wow, they got it right? i want to emulate some of this. olivier: first, i think bloomingdale's is doing that right. it won't be my only answer, but i think, you know, understand with great supplies, limited engagement with the customer, the relationship we are building with the customer and our partners, i think we can do better in the future. but i think there's not a source of inspiration from other models right now.

with terms of service, in terms of brand, activations, a lot of inspirations in retail and beyond retail. i have a lot of sources of inspiration actually in the u.s. and also abroad, which is another thing. we are going to miss probably some good trends that are happening somewhere in the world. romaine: and you think maybe what we see of rot in terms of their approach to the department or refill overall, do you think that will be palatable to a u.s. audience? olivier: absolutely convinced about that. we have to bring the best of both worlds, and we have to bring something different for the customer. the customer is ready right now for something different. and this we can get from some of the countries, some of the other models in the world. tom: ok, bloomingdale's the ceo olivier bron speaking about the outlook and the outlook and futures of department stores.

coming up, sweetie focus and including new nuclear talks with iran -- switching focus and including new nuclear talks with iran. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to "bloomberg markets." i'm tom mackenzie in london. european stocks are up .4%,

holding through those gains. here in the u.k., modestly gaining, just nine points so far with the ftse 100 up .8%. u.s. stocks closed for the day for the thanksgiving holiday can trading will restart on friday after a partial day of trading. gains just shy of .2%, for s&p 500. euro-dollar down .2%, softness coming through, $1.05. focus on the budget concerns, $2.985 on the france 10-year. brent up .5%, gold trading at $2645. opec-plus, a delayed meeting amid supply concerns on the global crude market. however, a minister of economy and planning expects non-activity to contribute to the kingdom's economic growth.

>> this budget is a roadmap for long-term economic leadership. we cannot transform in one budget cycle or two. this is a long-term journey that requires consistent work. in the past when we started, we were trying to get finances, so we focused on euro deficit. after that, we rely like -- we realize that a deficit by design in a region between 2% and 3% is good for investing in the right economic sectors that we want to bring forward. this is about nonoil economic growth. >> i noticed that spending in 2024 actually came and 7% higher than what you had originally participated -- anticipated. what guardrails do you have so that spending does not overshoot once again in 2025? minister alibrahim: we are very

conservative, so that helps us. we are also coming year after year, testing to help keep our spending within specific ranges, however, there is always opportunities for us to advance, progress that we see in nominal sectors or private sectors that have seen more growth than planned, and decisions were made in the past, not just this year but before, to double down on some of these factors, to improve and amplify the impact but also to build the foundation for a more sustainable, more vibrant, more diversified economic growth story moving forward. >> on that point about diversification, i thought it was noteworthy that his excellency the finance minister pointed out that 52% of the economy now comes from non-oil resources. to what extent do you think that provides the saudi arabia

economy with the buffer for what is going on with oil prices? because there has been a lot of downward pressure on the price of oil. minister alibrahim: so that is the objective of vision 2030, minimizing the impact of one commodity price on our ability to grow the economy. traditionally, our government relies on oil revenue, our economy relies on government sense. both of these relationships today are relying less on each other. so today, for the first time, we passed a 2020% mark as a percentage of total real gdp. we expect it to grow higher and higher. it started at 47 before. even if it is a few percentage points, these present a structural shift that takes decades sometimes to achieve. so while we are excited about this achievement, we don't see it as a mild style -- milestone we will overly celebrate. we want to focus on how the

growth can be of higher quality, representing more private sector, more opportunity for high-value jobs for people in saudi arabia, and more nonoil exports. tom: that was the saudi minister of economy and planning speaking to bloomberg's joumanna bercetche. i ran in talks with middle eastern countries -- european countries this week, including germany. stephanie, talk about the talks we are expecting to happen? what is the focus of the conversations between france, germany, the u.k. as well, and iran. stephanie: so what we seen so far, it's not just germany, ukraine, i in geneva tomorrow, and as far as we know, the ministerial level at this

moment, these were first rooted back in the un's general assembly in september when iran's president went there very much with this view of trying to make contact with western governments and countries, particularly parties to the joint comprehensive plan of action, which is, of course, the nuclear deal they agreed to in 2015 and that donald trump withdrew from in 2018. he has a mandate to try to revive that deal. he went to new york a couple of months ago really with an intention to try to get the meeting planned for him and he told us actually at the time exclusively that he was hoping to get the meetings on his schedule, and this is the outcome of those discussions in new york. but it is very early at the moment. we don't know exactly what they are going to talk about. we know obviously nuclear is in there, but the iranians will say

it is not just about that, they want to talk about the region, they want to talk obviously about the security situation. as we know, iran is involved in this conflict with israel, and it is obviously very much involved in what is happening in gaza and in lebanon, and hezbollah. all of those things i think are going to be on the agenda. tom: yeah. a huge number of questions about what their motivations are. is this about in oil revenue story? are they serious about maybe putting into the sandbox their nuclear program, at least for now? and do these talks matter at all if the u.s. is not at the table? golnar: i think they are very important in terms of the recent elections we had obviously in the u.s. this massive change slipping back to a trump administration, he's going to come back. the iranians don't know, none of us know, whether this next iteration of trump is going to also feature the famous maximum

pressure strategy that he imposed on iran the first time around that was so bad for the iranian economy and caused so much instability in the region, specifically in the persian gulf. the iranians, from with a signal so far, they don't want a repeat of that. they don't want to see maximum pressure the sequel, if you like. tom: john bolton is not -- golnar: he's not there, michael pompeo is not there, but this does not mean they don't have a voice. we had a very strong tweet from michael wolff the other day saying that iran is the root cause of the middle east problems. that is not bode well. at the same time was from, you never really know what he's going to do or exactly what he's thinking or what advisors he is more inclined to listen to. so there's a lot up in the air for iran. defenses come it has to get its sort of, you know, ships in ord er, it has to get everything

lined up where it can in order to contain any further escalation with the u.s., because its economy really cannot afford anything like that right now, and the islamic republic is not a particularly popular system at the moment, if you look at election turnout, if you are looking at that as your barometer, there have been successful record low turnout's for elections. tom: individual and rare but very brief protests as well. golnar: yeah. there are as well. tom: golnar, thank you very much and always fantastic come up with how we think about iran, with talks between germany, u.k., and iran to monitor, bloomberg's golnar motevalli. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome to "bloomberg markets." i'm tom mackenzie in london. european equities are up .4 percent, snapping two days of losses. some relief coming through for the tech sector when it comes to the question of u.s. restrictions, planned u.s. restrictions on sales into china, and that market, maybe those restrictions being a little softer come a little easier than some unexpected, seeing relief in technologies, the corporate sector right now in europe. the u.s. is closed for thanksgiving. happy thanksgiving out there. nasdaq 100 futures down 56

points -- up 56 points. the euro-dollar down .2%, at $1.05. the o.a..t. it is in focus for us, concerns over whether or not friends will get its budget over the line. opec-plus has pushed back their meeting to december 5, and gold is also rallying, of .3%, currently back above $2644. let's get to what is happening in terms of the consumer and the retail space, of course, it is thanksgiving, that means black friday is upon us. jharonne martis, director of consumer research at refinitiv, joins us for a deep dive on the health of the consumer and what kind of bargain hunting we might be seeing this holiday. jharonne, thank you for taking time out of the holiday for you and everyone around you, of course, what kind of indicators are you looking for from this black friday? jharonne: good morning, tom.

it's good to be here. yes, black friday marks the beginning of the holiday season, and we are also looking to add about a 2% growth for the season, which is actually not bad. it shows that there is consistent growth, especially given what we saw last year. we had a very strong holiday, and on top of that, we expected 2% growth this year. in the past year, many have become very value conscious, because they are still dealing with high prices. as a result, the retailers when ahead and started different promotions -- started their promotions way earlier, all the way back in october, in order to try to lure those shoppers income to which they have. already we are seeing that a lot of the items are flying off the shelves. so this is all pointed out the fact that we might actually have a jolly holiday season for retailers this year. tom: talk to us a little bit

more detail about the price conscious consumers in the u.s. and how that is being reflected in different segments of the retail space. how do you expect that story to evolve? jharonne: in our collaboration with centric market intelligence, we discovered that this black friday, the average discount has come down from 39% last year to 34% this year, and that is the lowest discount ever offered by retailers that we've seen since we started collecting this data about a decade ago. on top of that, the penetration, which is the amount of merchandise that retailers are offering to consumers, have actually come down as well, to one of the lowest levels we seen since 2016. so what this is telling us, it is very telling about the retailers, actually, they are being very strategic this year in the amount of merchandise they are offering. they are offering way less merchandise, and on top of that, they are offering very measured

reductions, and they are doing this in order to protect their margins. so as a result, it's going to be more of a battle. between the consumer and the retailer. . consumer will only open up their wallet if they feel like they are getting a very good discount from a promotion, whereas the retailer will be offering them strategically period over -- over periods of time but not as they were over the last 10 years. tom: it is to be expected, of course, but that tension between the consumer and whether or not the price point is going to be right when it comes to the retailer as well, protecting those margins. what is going to be the kind of demographic changes that you are monitoring as well? we hear from some other analysts that the top income of the wealthier end of the consumer basket, that those consumers are relatively well insulated. how is the breakdown you are seeing being reflected across different demographic changes? jharonne: well, the low end

consumer has been hit the hardest because of the sticky, high prices we seen him and as a result, even the dollar stores have told us, we seen it in their earnings reports that their numbers have been hit the hardest because of the consumer holding back on spending. when it comes to the middle and even upper class consumer, they still want designer clothing, but they want it for less. that's why we seek retailers like ross and t.j. maxx have been performing much better than other retailers. both middle-class and upper-class consumer will be engaged this holiday season, better they are still going to be looking for those values. even the high-end retailers will be offering some discounting come of it is not what we seen compared to the previous years, again, they will be very stingy with those discounts. this holiday season, gift cards are expected to be a big winner, beauty and luxury as well, but when it comes to beauty and luxury, those two sectors are when it comes to the averages

discount offered to the consumer. tom: ok, gift cards and luxury with maybe some other products in the mix there as well. talk to us about the online versus off-line experience for the consumer. is there one part of that ecosystem that is going to get more of a boost in the next 48 hours or so? is off-line finally going to get a bit of a leg up? jharonne: it is interesting, because throughout the year, we have seen that consumers have been gravitating toward the only channel experience, which is not just online, on your computer, but also using mobile and picking up, ordering items and then picking them up on the store on their way to home after work. so the only channel experience is key for the u.s. consumer, they are all about in-state gratification come and they want what they ordered right then and there. however, when it comes to black friday, it is a whole different experience could yes, shoppers have been doing comparison-shopping for weeks ahead of black friday, but it

has become a tradition here in the united states. every year when i go to the mall, i see a big amount of crowds, and i do talk to them, and it is the tradition of families visiting each other, waking up early, and hitting the balls for the latest items, fashion items and buying gifts for their friends and family. so when it comes to black friday itself, and a lot of people will be showing up at the mall, despite the fact that for weeks ahead of black friday, they've been doing a lot of price comparison. when it comes to after black friday come after the black friday weekend, on monday, we are going to see a lot of people actually from the office shopping for cyber monday, and that is also a tradition here in the united states. for black friday itself can a lot of people, a lot of traffic in the malls, but then going into monday, we will see a lot of online traffic. tom: yeah. ok, well, we will see if that has an impact on productivity than. maybe we should wash that data as well after monday. -- watch that data after monday

could before we let you go come in terms of the desire and appetite for experiences amongst the consumer, whether that is dining out or other experiences, how much demand is there for that part of the piece of the pie right now? jharonne: that has slowed down at the beginning of this year, but in the holiday season income of the hotels, restaurants, and leisure sector is actually expected to be the second strongest in terms of earnings growth rate. they are expected to see a four point 5% pick up year-over-year compared to a year ago. and, again, last year, when shoppers went out, they were eating out, and restaurants were doing well. the fact that we are seeing about a 5% growth this year shows it is still important to consumers that while they are out with their families this holiday season coming to have the experience is coming to go out and eat, to travel, so there will be a pickup, and that demand will be strong, in fact

the strongest we have seen in 2024. tom: ok, jharonne martis with the insight, the lens on, of course, black friday shopping, trends at refinitiv. in a very happy thanksgiving. turning to growth and the importance of ai, google's director of android partnerships tells bloomberg about what she handles and how she thinks about the challenges that come with artificial intelligence. take a listen. mariam: we have seven ai principles we have been abiding by since 2018, right? even before the regulation in these areas came by. those seven principles are working, you know, using technology for challenges that our society finds beneficial,

that they break the barriers and allow technologies to solve the most difficult of problems, actually languages, whether that is health care, agriculture, right? ensuring that there is privacy first, that we do away with viruses in these systems and so on and so forth. there are seven points that every google product, every innovation that we work on is underpinned by these seven principles that we develop since 2018. but we also working with government organizations, private organizations, the industry, to ensure we are all working in a way that is actually protecting our users and the populations that we work for. ultimately, we only serve the people that are going to benefit from these technologies. >> you talked a lot about the

different growth opportunities. what do you see is potentially the biggest opportunity in 2025 when it comes to the african continent and android partnerships? is it these data centers? is it the crowd business? is it investing in developers? where do you see the growth really coming from? mariam: am i allowed to say, "all of the above"? [laughter] where i see the opportunity coming from, jennifer, where i see the opportunity to come from, we have almost eight hundred million people we must connect on this continent, right? to benefit from the internet. an 800 million people means we have to be able to put the computing power or the supercomputing power in all of those powers, the growth when it comes to smart devices come up that goes into the houses and homes of the users, so they can get the best out of the internet, but also going with that, jennifer, ensuring that

our developers have all the tools they need to continue building innovative solutions from africa, for africa and the world. the third thing where i see growth coming is continuing to invest, innovate is an innovative infrastructure that allow us to lower the access barrier, right? and the third, or rather fourthly, i will say we need to keep up with the technologies that are arising, these exponential technologies, to be able to solve the challenges that are most relevant in our country, right? in all of the markets that i work with. and for us, ai is really going to be about transforming the technology, it's going to exponentially change the way we use technology to resolve the most relevant challenges on the continent and beyond. tom: well, that was google's director of android partnerships talking about the opportunity for challenges and artificial intelligence. some wires crossing right now. we are hearing from the russian

president, vladimir putin, in a conversation with the state run news organization ifx, and you can see live pictures of the russian president right now making these comments, saying on one hand that the bank of russia will decide on the inflation control measures, this after the ruble, of course, has come under pretty significant pressure in the last day or so. also referencing that conversation he had with german chancellor olaf schol,z. putin saying he and scholz did not change their mind after the call but saying it is possible to have dialogue in the future, just referencing some of those lines coming in from the russian president. we woke of course keep on that for you, as he will take

questions, largely, you would assume, and from his own domestic media. u.k. revising plans to name and shame companies under investigation. we will bring you the details. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

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tom: welcome to "bloomberg markets." i'm tom mackenzie in london. european equities a snapping today's, futures also in positive territory, the u.s. is closed on thanksgiving holiday. nasdaq gaining 64 points. now uncertainty is clouding the outlook for many investors, of course, for the second trump term, expected to bring big changes. that's an understatement.

i guess caught up with bloomberg earlier this week saying that markets are wide open heading into the new year. >> the number of the factors, quite frankly, that i think are going to drive activity both today and going forward into 2025, it really amounts to the factors that create confidence for ceo's, and there are really four key ones here. the first is the underlying economic environment that feels increasingly comfortable to folks that we had a soft landing. there's an expectation that we would have positive gdp for 2025 and going forward. the second is the robust support in the capital markets, the debt markets with which we can't talk about in a little more detail, are wide open. we had a number of those capital markets with record issuance in 2024, and credit spreads are at

or near, for many of these categories, a multiyear tight. the third piece is come of the stock market, you have sellers in public markets where the stock market actually performed really well, and in particular the small and mid-cap names come of the russell that you talked about some of those comprise a a lot of sellers in the market, and when you are selling at or near your 52-week hi, it's a much easier discussion in the boardroom. and finally, the buyers with their own stock prices, strong performance and this access to capital, that makes for a great mna combination. scarlet: yeah. that is quite the cocktail. you joined wells fargo what the mandate on expanding the bank operations. it's a lot an assignment about m&a and ipo's picking up. how does this influence your plan when it comes to hiring for

this slowdown of the investment bank? doug: yeah. scarlet, you mentioned, you know, in the last two weeks, wells fargo has announced two in million dollar plus transactions, one on the cell side, one on the buy side. those are, i think, representatives of some of the investments that wells has already made fears over the course of the last 24 months, we have already hired over 60 managing directors across our m&a business, our equity and debt capital markets, and our coverage businesses. and as you know, when bankers join, it takes them time to understand the systems of our big institutions and to re- cement to relationships with their clients. tom: that was wells fargo vice-chairman doug braunstein

speaking with bloomberg's romaine bostick in scarlet fu. revising his plan to publicly announce companies under investigation in the u.k. after sparking backlash, now giving them 10 days to object before probes are made public. bloomberg's jonathan brannick joins us for the details. this is called the name and shame proposal, and they've moderated it come under pressure from lobbyists, but what if they come to in terms of a decision? >> it was called the name and shame, because the fda never called adapted and acquired this moniker commanded became an easy shorthand in the city by a lot of lobbyist kind of pushing back against the fta, pushing back against this attempt to be more transparent about enforcement investigations. today, the fta has acknowledged that there was a huge push back and have tweaked the proposals

to make it clear come as you say, that there is a chance and opportunity to discuss internally before they go public. however, the fta is still really clear that they want to move forward on this, they are really clear that basing the transparency around their enforcement process is actually good, it is a deterrent and it encourages whistleblowers commit encourages people to come forward, and so they are saying yes, we are going to kind of tweak it around the edges, but we are still intending to name some firms, and it's only firms, earlier in an enforcement process. tom: 10 days does not sound like very much of a reprieve for companies that are under investigation, being probed, being looked at. is that enough time for them to put forward their case? jonathan: i mean, the fta says it is enough. the initial kind of commentary around this has been mildly

positive. there might have been more pushing and shoving from the lobbyist side about this, but the fca themselves are saying this is still a consultation, nothing has been decided. i think the fca feels that, in an investigation, these companies will already be backwards and forwards with the fca, so that another 10 days to discuss run publicity should not be too onerous. tom: do other jurisdictions have these in place, and what is the politics of this? jonathan: so there's nothing quite like this in other countries, and the sec, which is the sister regulator to the fca, does not do it like this. but there are more court oriented, so they start with the court appearance.

politically, it became something of a football when it was first announced, first announced kind of in the spring and seized on by the conservative party. jeremy hunt made a rare intervention when he was chancellor to say perhaps this ought to be looked at again, which is unusual. and i think the fca has sort of recognized that noise like this is not a good thing. today, the enforcement chief, chambers herself, said perhaps this did not land as well as they should have the first time round, that it should have been something that was cattily introduced. tom: it was an interesting mea culpa introduced. where do we stand in terms of what this does to the business of the city of london, and the implications for investors? jonathan: so the competitiveness

piece is part of the consultation. it is very clearly in the wording. the fca themselves has actually been quite forceful on that, and in fact, it is in the interest of the city, to be competitive, that we are seeing to enforce and enforce with a transparent approach, that actually that is competitive, competitive plus for london, first the city -- for the city. yeah. it was quite interesting that they were prepared to address it but also quite forceful he knew that it could be a good thing for the city's competitiveness. tom: thank you very much indeed, jonathan, one of the authors of the piece, adjusted moderated the "name and shame," not officially, of course, after some perspective trying to strike a balance. bloomberg's jonathan browning

with the report and details. european markets of .4% so far this thursday could in the u.k. come of the ftse 100 has gains, trading at 8283. in france come up .5%, we heard from some ministers in france, suggesting that they could be open to moderating that budget proposal that has caused consternation with pressure across french debt. talking of which, you can see the french 10 year yield, 2.98. euro-dollar under pressure, that continues to fill up, $1.05. $73 a barrel for brent, and gold is up .4% as well, rallying. coming up, we have guests with a view on geopolitics, and then ladle her -- ben laidler, of course, on the markets.

stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real. it's our son, he is always up in our business.

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>> welcome to "bloomberg markets." i'm hissy burden in london. happy thanksgiving. thanks for joining us. let's get the markets. you look at the stoxx 600, currently higher. a close eye on the cac quarante in paris, higher half a percent, despite the political turmoil. u.s. markets are closed today. it's thin volume elsewhere. as we look at the futures, both pointing higher. equity rally falling off

slightly yesterday, knocked by the tech selloff and p.c. climbed. we'll get into that. if we flip to the cross asset picture, euro dollar is actually up 105, so weakest, again, as we digest that political turmoil. what's the speculation about euro dollar? looking at the 10-year yield, currently 2.9 is where we trade. weaker five basis points. but we did cross that important psychological threshold earlier. the bench mark yield matching for the first time ever. but we're lower than that now, given the concessions made by the french finance minister. that's another thing we're going to dig into later in the program. brent at $73 a barrel. opec meeting delayed until december 5. what does that mean? does it mean that they haven't managed yet to hammer out a deal? another thing we shall discuss.

brent trading at $2.062 an ounce with the geopolitical risk in the background. of course, the cease-fire in the middle east in place at the moment. thanksgiving usually kicks off a santa rally, but the u.s. equity rally took a breather yesterday. let's go over to ben laidler. hi, ben. what about the s&p 500 health into the end of the year? we had j.p. morgan equity strategy team yesterday turning positive, a rare sighting in the past couple of years. do you join them? ben: i think we continue to be positive. both for technical reasons, but also for the fund mentales. we're getting another dose of u.s. economic and stop market exceptionalism with the outlook for trump 2.0.

i think that gives you upside to the economy and upside for earnings. you mentioned the technical seasonality. i think a lot of people have been left behind by this rally so far this year. i would fully expect to see a little bit of performance tracing into the end of the year. and history is on your side. you make 40% of your annual return typical until the last three months of the year. as you say, thanksgiving is typically the start of the santa rally. lizzy: when that seasonality affect drops off, do you start to see weakness in q1? ben: i think the fund metals here are very solid. this is going to be u.s.-led. we have double-digit earnings growth for next year. we have a broadening story. we still got tech delivering on earnings growth, but we're going to see a greater contribution through some of these rate sensitives that are beginning to benefit from the rate cuts the fed has done. we're going to see the commodity weakness, which we've seen a lot of this year, maybe given to

drop out of the numbers. and this is even without any acceleration potentially from trump 2.0 and potential corporate tax cuts. that is upside relative to a base case today, which is already now cause for this quarter, 10% earnings growth. that's your base case. and i definitely see upside risk to that. listsy: that's interesting. how are you thinking about trump policy as we hear more about his appointments and he has all of these posts on truth social. of course, we have had scott bessent appointed as u.s. treasury secretary. some seeing him as a counter to trump policy. others expecting him to be a loyal foot soldier. where do you stand? ben: i make a distinction between u.s. assets, which are embracing trump 2.0 on the basis of stronger growth and lower corporate taxes. and this has real ramifications

for the rest of the world. let's not forget how supersized the u.s. is. it's the biggest economy in the world, but it's 65% of global equity. so it's just dragging the rest of the world with it on the equity side. but on the rest of the world, it's a less positive story. i call it, we've sort of pulled defeat from the jaws of victory. we were expecting lower interest rates, a weaker dollar to juice returns in the rest of the world. i would say that's delayed here. probably not derailed. but the rest of the world equity story is probably more one for later in 2025. right now it still remains all about the sort of u.s., extension of u.s. exceptionalism lizzy: are there any winners to come out of this? i think perhaps of japan today benefiting, well, the expectation it will benefit from the trump tariff war. ben: i think there's going to be a lot of silver linings here and

a lot of winners, which maybe we're not expecting. mexico, for example, is considered to be in the crosshairs of a lot of these trump policy issues. i think it ultimately ends up being a winner. if you're going crack down on trade with china, someone like mexico, the story probably just accelerates once you look through all the noise. but even china, if we crack down on trade with china, do we just cause the chinese to do more fiscal stimulus, which we haven't seen very much of yet. i think we're in a new normal of heightened volatility, which we're just going to have to live with. i think when all is said and done, there's going to be a lot of unexpected winners here and silver linings. lizzy: you mentioned the chinese stimulus. how confident are you that that stimulus will materialize, that it will actually be significant? ben: not very. i do think it's coming, but we've had a number of false storms. i think our base case is $3

trillion of $4 trillion of stimulus coming out, which you've barely seen any yet. i take some comfort from the fact that expectations are very low. all you need to do is really take out a little bit of an assurance that growth is not going to slow much more. you have a lot of trapped liquidity in china. it's have been a very cheap market. interestingly, very uncorrelated with the rest. world. so i think it's interesting, but obviously we've had a lot of false storms there before. lizzy: just going back to the winners and losers. when you think about u.k. equities, the u.s. and europe, and we've got this new labor government, how are you thinking about the u.k.? is it an opportunity to get it while it's cheap? ben: the u.k. has been a value trap until now. it's been cheap for a long time, but without any sort of upside catalysts. it lacks a real trigger, but

most u.k. companies do most of their business in the rest of the world. the u.s. is a major, major export market. if the u.s. economy is humming along at 3%, there's a number of u.k. companies that will really benefit from that. # lizzy: which sector are you looking at? ben: commodities is one, which maybe is there. we also get more u.s. demand. you know, health kay, pharmaceuticals, another big one. valuations across the sectors, very, very cheap. a little bit -- and the u.s. k. has got very small. a little bit of good news, or maybe less bad news might be the better way to put it, can go a very long way in some of these depressed, cheap assets. like european equities, you just

need less bad news. give it a few months, let's get trump in office. i think you may very well see that. lizzy: definitely need to see how it plays out. americans are big buyers of british exports, land rovers, machinery, chemicals, farm. do we actually see a hit even if we dominate in services here in the u.k.? lovely to talk to you, ben laidler, thanks for making time with us this thanksgiving. good to see you. coming up on the program, we'll get back to the french story. french assets very much under pressure as a possible no confidence vote threatens to oust the country's prime minister. we'll be getting more on that next. we look at the cac quarante, stronger .6%. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

lizzy: welcome back to "bloomberg markets." it is 2:12 here in london. happy thanksgiving if you're just joining us. happy holiday. let's go to france, where french assets are under pressure as the country faces a deepening political crisis. a possible no confidence vote threatens to oust the prime minister, causing uncertainty and fueling investor concerns. you're looking at the cac quarante, higher .8%. the 10-year yield is currently weaker to 2.95%. we did see them corroborating the important psychological thresh -- crossing the important

psychological threshold matching greece, higher than 3%. weaker than that now, but the concerns in the market do continue. euro dollar at 1.05. we get more analysis on the political situation with our correspondent. great to have you with me. we're looking at a concession made today, and i think that's perhaps why we've seen a bit of a back of the yield on 10-year. how significant is this that's been offered by the french political minister politically and hence the narrowing of the spread? >> it's potentially quite significant. it's hard to tell quite yet. we don't have really enough in the way of details to understand exactly how far the government is willing to go. one difference between the budget proposed and the far

right rally has been things that she says are really going to hit middle class french savers. her goal, she says, is to really protect them. what you have barnier, just a few minutes ago, in an interview said the french government was not going to raise taxes. it may complicate the formulation, but what it means is electricity prices will probably go down more than they would have otherwise go down for most french people. they were going to go down anyway, but now they should go down even more. it is one of the r.n.'s key demands. i guess it's the first moment that we have that shows the french government moving. that would potentially allow the r.n. to say, we've gotten something tangible and significant for the people who voted for us, the people who support us, and therefore, we're willing to abstain on whatever no confidence vote might come down the road and sort of everyone goes home happy. if this is going to be enough to get them to say that, i actually have my doubts.

but it's hard to tell yet. the r.n. is meeting at the moment to discuss sort of their plans going forward for the next week. there's going to be several moments of tension next week, where they could potentially vote to try to oust the government. they're trying to decide right now how they're going to respond. there's still a lot of moving pieces, but there does appear to have been some sort of efforts to find an off ramp, and as you point out, there's already some discussion of that this morning, that it already had an effect on french bond yields, pushing them lower and narrowing the spread with germany earlier today, and that appears to be continuing. lizzy: you mentioned marine le pen, the leader of the party. let's take a listen to what she's been saying. >> if it stays the same, yes. this is not surprise.

we always said it, but the past three months. i'm telling you, if this budget is not approved, the last year will apply and it's not as bad as this one, as there are less taxes for the working and middle classes. lizzy: the national rally leader, marine le pen. what do you think it's going to take to get her to play ball? alan: first of all, i'd say she's being pretty optimistic saying that things would be better if there's no budget. she's partly correct in that there are systems in place in france for government to continue functioning. what that means in terms of net-net is a better or worse for people, it's very likely to be worse. but that said, she does have a whole series of demands. among them is not raising taxes on electricity. another one is, there was a plan to delay some increase in

retirement payments to retirees, part of an increase on january 1, part in july, rather than doing all of it on january 1. one of her demands is to have it done on january 1. it's a series of measures that would put more money in the pockets of largely sort of blue-collar and middle class workers. michelle barnier appears to be moving on one of them. is that enough to be willing to say publicly i will an strain on no confidence vote, just so viewers understand, the left is going to vote to oust barnier no matter what happens. the deciding vote ends up coming down to marine le pen. she's the king maker. if she says yes, i'm going to join a no confidence motion, he's out. if not, he remains. that gives her a lot of control. it appears that she is getting somewhere. again, is that enough to get her

to fully back off? it's hard to say yet. if i were here, i would probably say, i won't vote, because there will be several no confidence motions. you still need to give me more before i vote on the last one. is that what she's actually going to do? i don't know yet. lizzy: where we've seen borrowing costs matching greece's for the first time ever, i wonder how important that is. is it a red herring or actually an marker? alan: i would say both in some ways. so there is a good amount of tension in the french bond market in particular. the french stock market as well, which has really underperformed other european and u.s. stock markets since the beginning of the year, particularly since june, when french president emmanuel macron dissolved parliament and called the snap election that got us in this situation we are in today. but the french bond yields, the reason it's the same that the yield is roughly the same as greece is less that there's

tension in the french bond market, but there's been a big drop in greek bond yields. greece has actually done a very good job on its deficit, its debt, and it's become the darling of bond investors. whereas france has become less the darling, and therefore, there's been some tension. but french bond yields have been going down, but they've been going down much less quickly than greece has. so it's not -- in some ways it is a red herring. it's not that france has suddenly become what greece was a decade ago. that's not the case. but it does show that whereas france had a really privileged position as being viewed as roughly like germany, it's not quite viewed like that anymore, and some other countries are becoming much more viewed as very safe havens, that bond investors outside of europe can really safely put their money and not think about it. and greece has oddly enough become one of those companies. lizzy: alan katz in paris, thank you for that crucial context. actually seeing the french banks back in the green now.

b.n.p. paribas, 6:00 again, all in positive territory, despite the political turmoil. but, of course, the longer term picture, that underperformance of the cac quarante relative to the stoxx 600. still ahead on bloomberg markets, how we're preparing for the next trump administration's impact on the global economy. as we have markets closed stateside, but futures pointing higher at the opening session. this is bloomberg. ♪

lizzy: investors remain uncertain on the impact of president-elect trump's tariff threats. many are concerned they could have adverse effects on the global economy. the policies may lead to higher inflation and lower growth. >> some of the economic policies of trump may lead to higher economic growth, keeping tax rates low for the economy. but unfortunately, many of the policies are going to make higher inflation and lower economic growth. the first thing he's already announced is going to be tariffs against mexico, canada, and china. that's only the beginning. he has said we might have up to 20% tariffs on all our trade

partners, up to 60% against china. he wants to have massive deportation of people. in the last few years, increasing migration has kept the minimum wage growth, has increased labor supply, has increased economic growth. that's the mass deportation. he wants not only to make all the tax cuts permanent, but he made other promises, and no taxes on tips and overtime or social security. on income earned abroad and so on and so on. too much demand, inflationary. he might want to weaken the dollar. that's going to be inflationary. he may interfere with the independence of the fed. getting out of the paris accord is going to make climate change much worse, increase food prices, things of that sort. >> it's interesting, in our yell, a lot of things you just said are what a bitcoiner would say as to why you should buy bitcoin. there's now the bitcoin etf's.

clearly a big hit. there's talk it could be a strategic reserve. you have gold in the portfolio. is there anything that could move you to add bitcoin to your etf to help accomplish some of these goals? >> bitcoin is hardly volatile. it can go up 10% one day and down 15% another day. if you want a stable value, you would not put bitcoin into your portfolio. the kind of assets we are actually thinking about are assets that do well when you're higher inflation, whether it's short and treasuries, hedge against inflation, the dollarization, geopolitics, surprises, some exposure to commodities are going to do well, all the inflation for climate change. and environmentally it's sustainable, so it's a diverse portfolio of assets that you've done well in these types. i'm skeptical for lots of

reasons about cryptocurrency and bitcoin, because they're not currency. they're not the usual account. they're not the means of payment. they're not the value. you want to stay away from the assets.

lizzy: welcome to "bloomberg markets." let's check these markets. it is thanksgiving, happy holidays if you're celebrating. but it means that u.s. markets are closed, and it's thin volume around the world. here in europe, the stoxx 600 is higher .6%. everywhere in the globe, including paris, cac quarante higher .9%. if you break it down by sector, you've got about three forces in positive territory. tech still leading higher. the bottom of the basket, chemicals, lower .2%.

looking toward the wall street open, we do have s&p and nasdaq futures pointing higher. the equity rally kind of falling off yesterday in time for the holiday, knocked by the tech selloff and that core p.c.e. reading supporting the grad's grad -- the fed's gradual approach. talk a look at euro dollar, it's weaker at 1.05 currently. speculation about euro dollar, the turmoil in france on top of the pull mile in germany -- turmoil in germany. 10-year yield currently weaker, seven basis points, 2.95%, having matched greece's yield for the first time ever earlier today. but lower now given the concessions from the french finance minister to the national rally. brent is trading at $73 a barrel. the opec+ meeting on sunday now delayed to december 5. gold trading at $2.646 an ounce, actually stronger .4%.

that's the broad view in markets as things stand. but despite the positive picture today, as i say, it's thin volumes. the bigger picture is uncertainty, particularly around what's going to become of president-elect donald trump's tariff threats being made thick and fast on truth social. many investors growing in concern about the adverse effects they could have on the global economy. we just heard that from roubini. let's get more from fordham's global foresight founder and geopolitical strategist, always good to talk to you. i wonder, you've seen markets kind of encouraged by donald trump's relatively benign, shall we say, picks, treasury secretary, a key economic roles. do you think they're being lulled into a false sense of security? >> i think markets have focused on the as 60's of the emerging

trump agenda that there's been confident and well received picks, treasury secretary in particular, and others that the more questionable ones not getting much attention, and there's some logic there. u.s. markets are focused more on the treasury secretary. global markets are taking a wider view about the picks. lizzy: in terms of tariffs, especially on europe, trump saying europe is almost as bad as china. is that just sabre rattling? it's something he's said in the past. his view of trade is fairly functional. it's how many cars germany exports to america. he's less relationship-focused. everyone knows that his style is highly transactional. but i think what really rattles

the business leaders in the countries where we're advicing people is the extension to which these tariffs will fall on allies and the sense of unpredictability about what the trade might be. because commitment to defense spending or other noneconomic factors, like fentanyl and migrants over the border are factoring into the tariff strategy. it's got people confused about how to prepare and what will come next. lizzy: we've seen difference responses on truth social n. europe, is the leadership strong enough to respond to trump? we're talking, of course, about the political crisis in france, germany, as well. is that leadership going to be

there? tina: i think this is one of the most underestimated political risks that is emerging from the forthcoming second trump administration. in europe, we do have more multiparty coalitions. these are more prone to collapse under pressure. in the immediate days after the election, both germany and ireland announced new elections. in germany, the german elections in february are going to be front and center. i'm calling it the biggest political signpost for europe in 2025, german elections. and then we've seen turmoil in france as well. how this relates to trump, crisis accelerates in existing trends, so it can't be blamed on the administration, but the combination, the double whammy of the potential for tariffs coming against allies, plus demand for increased defense spending, in an environment where the 2% nato target may not

be enough to repel putin from ukraine, but making inroads elsewhere, is going to put european governments under a great deal of fiscal pressure at a time when growth is pretty tight as well. lizzy: we've seen putin saying russia could strike kyiv with a new ballistic missile. how soon do you think donald trump is going to force the ukrainian president zelenskyy to the negotiating table when he comes to office? tina: this is where the guess work comes in, because trump has said he would end the war in ukraine on day one, but he hasn't said how he will do that. i think we should allow for more than one day for that to happen. but what you see is in anticipation of trump's likely pressure that there is already a trump effect.

the decision by the is incoming administration to appointed a retired general to the position of ukraine envoy is already prompting a lot of guess work because weave been told that in the past he wanted to see u.s. aid be conditional, the aid to ukraine be conditional upon entering into talks. putin has said that he's happy to enter talks as long as he gets to keep everything that he took and that ukraine doesn't have security guarantees. so, you know, those are not very strong terms for ukraine to enter into a negotiation with russia. lizzy: putin will talk, as long as it's on his terms. tina fordham, political strategist, great to talk to you there. always good to have you with us. as we continue to monitor these threats from putin, he warned that potential strikes on decision making centers in kyiv

with the new ballistic missile in response to ukraine's attack using western missiles. we'll keep across that for you. coming up on the program, it is thanksgiving, and this year is a "wicked" season at bloomingdale's, going all out on a new immersive strategy to attract customers. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

lizzy: welcome back. happy holidays. it is thanksgiving, of course. bloomingdale's is going full "wicked." scarlet fu and romaine bostick have been speaking to the c.e.o. about the reasons behind this

decision and where blooming calls stands ahead of the holiday season in the u.s. >> the u.s. market is actually the biggest and the most intense market for department stores, so it's very, very exciting for us. i'm so thrilled to be here. i think we can do things differently in the future. we have the experience. we're seeing room for improvement in the future. this is what we're working on at bloomingdale's. >> you were in europe europe and asia as well. what have you noticed that's different or perhaps unique about the u.s. consumer and the way they shop and buy versus those in europe and asia? >> yeah, i think first they are used to department store. the importance of the department store for the customer is still very, very strong, when you confirm with europe and asia, it's very strong. but i think the relationship with the department store, with retail overall, is very tractional, and i think we have

to bring back more about the story telling from our brand's offers to the customers. this is all we're working on right now. this is the perfect illustration. >> talk about how you do that. you use the word story telling. you hear that a lot, particularly in the fashion industry, the idea you need to give people a reason to spend money on the hand bag or shoes, telling a story. how do you do that in a concept and more importantly in a day and age where people are much more transactional? they just want to buy what they want to buy and leave the store and pick it up and go home. >> when you're buying a bag, you're not just buying a bag, especially for a luxury brand or premium band. you're buying a story, asocial marker, something special that i think is more than just a product. we have to make sure that the experience, we're bringing that to the customer. the thing for us is exactly that. you're not only coming to the store to buy, you're coming to

the store because you see something different. you can leave with an exciting experience. this is exactly what we're working on right now, and we want to make it bigger and bigger to reinforce the efforts. >> how transferable is that to other locations? this is your naturalship location, so of course you go all out. but when you go to a store in texas, california, somewhere else, can you replicate this? >> very good question, because i think it's all about being bloomingdale's and being a chain. we want to be as bloomingdale's the local leader, the local destination. so we have that to every single store, every single customer, and the teams are working on t. of course it's going to be different. but we're doing that in every sport. >> given your background in europe and in asia, are there plans for any sort of international expansion for bloomingdale's? >> i don't think so. we already have really well, so bloomingdale's is strong.

but for now it's variety. we think that we have a lot of markets, and we think that we can have actually strong growth in the future in the u.s. and other markets. this being a new platform, a new region, is very challenging. i had a chance to experience that. and honestly, starting from scratch where you already have mature department store brand in this region is actually very challenging. >> what about the mix between the amount of fails you're getting from your brick and mortar location and the amount of sales from digital? >> right now we're in line with our peers right now, so i think the market is around 30% of the sales, but actually what you observe is actually the world of online will not jeopardize the sales right now. >> is that a different march or the same customer? >> no, first online now is our number one recruiting channel for new customers.

but we have this ability to transfer our online customers to offline, because you have the returns, because you want to see what you're going to buy offline online, so that's a great experience. right now customers don't care whether they're shopping online or offline. they want to seep a product. they want to experience bloomingdale's, whatever the platform. for now, we're thinking about online/offline. it's going to be social shopping, whatever it s. i think it's really about relating and engaging with the brand. >> if you take a step back, and i'm sure in contrast to what you see in europe and asia, the department store model has been struggling in the u.s. for a number of years. what do you think is behind that? why is the department store model not doing as well in the u.s. as it could be say in asia or europe? >> yeah, i think first in asia and you're right now, they're focused. i think that's one big difference. honestly, i think the flagships will have a bright future in the next 10, 20 years.

it's not a problem. i think the problem is managing the launch. that can be a challenge sometimes. at bloomingdale's, we have the chance to be in prime locations and prime malls, very strong locations. we have a limited footprint. i think we have more than other problems in the future. i really do think that the department store model has a bright future, but it has to reinvent itself from the perspective of the customer, but also from our brand partners. we have to be relevant and rethink it. >> how about the broader landscape overall? are there too many stores in the u.s. overall? >> when you look at the market data, when you look at the overall market is actually slightly growing, the penetration of online is going up, so for sure the average square feet overall in the u.s. is actually slightly less. so yes, there will somebody losers. it's why you have to challenge yourself and reunvent your model to remain relevant for your customers.

>> i have to ask you, when you look at other retailers, and doesn't necessarily have to be a direct competitor, who do you envy most? like when you walk in their store, shop on their website, who do you say wow, they really got it right? >> first, i really think that bloomingdale's is doing that right. what i discovered -- i'm sorry to say, but i think based on -- it won't be my only answer. but honestly, i was very surprised by the engagement of the customer, the relationship that we're building with the customer is actually good. i think we can even do better in the future. but i think there's a source of inspirations but also from others right now, whether it's service, in terms of mix, in terms of activation, they have a lot of inspiration, but retail and beyond retail, i don't want to give you any names, but i have a lot of inspiration. in the u.s., but also abroad, which is another thing. i think we should not be too domestic focused, because we're

going to miss good friends that are happening somewhere in the world. >> you think that maybe what we see abroad in terms of their approach to department stores, just retail overall, you think that's going to be palatable to a audience? >> i think this is where we perform and bring something different. the customer is ready for something different, more inspiring, and this we can get it from some of the countries or some of the other models in the world. >> that was bloomingdale's' c.e.o., hoping to defy gravity when comes to the "wicked" collaboration. he was speaking to scarlet fu and romaine bostick. coming up, we're going to look at oil prices as opec delayed yet another meeting. we'll have the latest on global crude markets for you next. this is bloomberg. ♪ i can't believe you corporate types are still at it. just stop calling each other rock stars. and using workday to put finance and h.r. on one platform. tim, you are a rock star.

using responsible ai doesn't make you a rock star. it kinda does. you are not rock stars. (clears throat) okay. most of you are not rock stars. oooh. data driven insights, and large language models. oh, that's so rock roll. it is, right. he gets it. yeah.

lizzy: welcome back to "bloomberg markets." it's 2:51 here in london. weren't trading higher .4% at $73 a barrel. this is as opec+ is delaying its meeting to december 5. it was meant to be online on sunday. but bloomberg revealed the delay. the group was set to discuss whether to increase supply or prolong the curve on crude production. to discuss why they've done this delay, we can speak to bloomberg news' team leader for oil trading here in europe. this has happened before. what do you read into the delay? >> first of all, the reason given is that there is a meeting clash. there's something else they need to go to. at the same time, obviously the other meeting, it was known about, so it is interesting that they've chosen to delay it. i think it speaks to a lot of the difficulties that opec

faces. they need to -- you're looking at a market next year that is widely expected to be oversupplied next year, a million and a half barrels a day, something like that, if opec doesn't add supply. if they do add supply, there's a chance getsing to to be interpreted bearishly by traders. so they have to be very careful. there's pressure from within opec to add supply. some countries, for example, the u.a.e. have added capacity. they've pushed hard to be able to add supply. they want to do it. so it's not as simple as, oh, we're just going to delay. also, all of the opec members who aren't pumping more are giving market share to somebody else. there are all those dynamics. more supply coming, and a need from within to pump more barrels. now, that needs some careful thought, some negotiation, some back and forth between the key decision makers within opec, and presumably that little bit of

extra time will give them a chance too kind of think about what they want to do, the messaging they want to deliver, and all those things. lizzy: why is brent up today half a percent? is it because traders are expecting a deal to come out of this meeting? >> i think there's a few things. one is it's thanksgiving. lizzy: of course, there's volume. >> it's hard to read too much into today's pricing, full stop. and then, yeah, i think there's a growing expectation, growing realization it will be hard for opec to bring the extra supply next year. the extra meeting makes it more of a thought in the market's mind. maybe they have to hold back and wait longer to re-add the supply, which they are supposed to do early next year. lizzy: you talk about the supply challenges and the decision on that side, but do you want to lay it out on the demand side?

china not growing as fast as one aspect. >> absolutely. we reported today, really interesting piece from our colleagues in asia. our colleagues in asia did a great story about the e.v. expansion. there's a huge growth of them china. they're having a crossing of the lines between e.v.'s and gasoline-powered cars. you're having a weaker economy and the demand for road transport is being met increasely by e.v.'s, and therefore you're eroding an important source of demand, which is gasoline in china. so, yeah, economy and change in the makeup of demand. lizzy: really interesting, we also have a story about u.s. motorists bracing for higher gasoline prices under the incoming trump administration, because potential tariffs on imports from canada and mexico. another element in this story.

good to have you with me round the table. as we look towards that opec+ meeting, delayed as it will be, but december 5 the new date. brent now stronger at half a percent at $73 a barrel. just checking in on the broader markets, how things stand. we have the stoxx 600 higher .6%. it's green across the screen for european equities this thanksgiving. thin volume, as we mentioned, for equities as well. the ftse 100 higher. the cac quarante actually managing to eke out gains of .8%, despite the political turmoil in paris. although we have equities closed stateside, futures are pointing higher. they're higher. just looking cross asset, despite the turmoil, we have euro dollar only weaker .2%. but lots of speculation about

potential euro dollar currency. the 10-year yield weaker, six basis points to 2.9%. we can discuss it all next with patrick armstrong on the program. that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪

lizzy: welcome back to "bloomberg markets." i'm lizzy burden in london, coming up to 3:00 p.m., 10:00 a.m. stateside in new york. of course, it's thanksgiving, to happy holidays if you're celebrating. markets are closed in the u.s. it's thin volume elsewhere. green across the screen for european equities. even in paris, the cac quarante higher .7%, despite the political turmoil. and when you look at it by sector, break it down, you've

got about three forces in the green. tech leading the gains still, higher 1.25%. consumer products and services, bottom of the basket, down about a quarter of a percent. and equities are closed stateside. the rally yesterday falling off just in time for the holiday. knocked by the tech sell to have and core p.c.e. climbing, so that supports the fed's gradually approach. but futures pointing higher. s&p even higher .2%. looking at the cross asset picture, we have euro dollar currently weaker by .2%, 1.05 where we are at the moment. 10-year, we're down seven basis points at 2.95%. actually the french benchmark yield matched greece's for the first time ever, but it's lower now, given the concessions from the french finance minister. brent trading at $73 a barrel, stronger .4%.

opec+ delayed its meeting. gold trading at $2.642 an ounce, stronger a quarter of a percent. that's a look at the broader markets. let's get context now, speaking to patrick armstrong, who's always got a view on these things. patrick, good to have you with me. we've got the appointments and the truth social posts rolling in from donald trump. we're getting more of an idea about how he campaigned is going to translate into how he's going to govern. i wonder how president-elect trump is get the deficit down and cut taxes. patrick: well, he's going to forecast incredible growth, strong growth as he'll call it, very strong growth, and that allows the budget math to work. besides talking about 3% growth and reducing the deficit to 3%, and those projections will make sense if you achieve the growth, which will be difficult to do.

but i think that's going to be a bit of a pie in the sky type thing, where the budget, assuming massive growth, that kind of growth isn't going to be easy to achieve. i do think the deficits are going to stay wide, which will be pro growth. but you're not going to get to the 3, 3, 3, that's being targeted, g.d.p. growth, 3%, and keeping the deficit down to three. the tariffs are an opening gambit. the reality won't be as harsh as the rhetoric, but i could be surprised on that. obviously no one knows for sure with trump. what seems like rhetoric may turn into official policy as well. lizzy: an opening gambit, maybe just a negotiating tactic when it comes to tariffs. i wonder where we've got scott bessent picked for u.s. treasury secretary, what you think his relationship with the fed is going to be like. previously he's talked about having a shadow chair in the form of forward guidance. does that water down powell's

power on the future? patrick: i don't know if it does, but that will be very attractive to president-elect trump, because undermining the fed, as long as his message is getting through to them, will be very important. president trump thinks he knows best, and he's stated that openly that he shouldn't be calling the shots at the fed and he should have that dialogue with the fed to indicate what he thinks rates should be. having a shadow fed may undermine and create potential for criticism of the emotion, and it won't be surprising to see effort from the trump administration to influence rates. that's going to be part of their agenda. lizzy: how do you position around all this? we've got thanksgiving today. usually kicks off a santa rally. is that what you're expecting in year end? patrick: i do think equities keep moving higher to year end.

i don't think there's going to be too much to rock the boat in terms of a year-end rally. it is realistic to be optimistic on growth, and equities are the way. trump's policies are pro growth, apart from tariffs. the stock market is going to be one of the key metrics he measures himself with. most of what he does is very soft market-friendly. deregulation, pro growth policies, probably tax cuts are going to be pushed in as well. all of that should set the stage for a grind higher in risk assets, and you still have a fed that i expect another cut from in december. a cutting fed would cause an economic back drop and a pretty good environment. lizzy: i'm interesting in how it reads to europe. are you expecting an actual trade war? you said previously the tariffs are maybe just a negotiating tactic. do you see this kind of mexican standoff between u.s. and european retaliatory tariffs?

patrick: i think europe will respond immediately once it goes beyond truth social or a tweet, whether it's an explicit policy, i suspect europe will, in the early days, create to what's going to come. they won't be surprised by tariffs. they won't be surprised by policies that are very nationalistic. in 20127, maybe they were a little bit, and a little bit disjointed in responses. i do think as soon as there's a clear proposed policy, europe will have a clear counter policy. we'll see if that leads to hopefully a productive dialogue that doesn't result in trade wars. from where we are today to where we will be in the next three or four years from now, trade will have curtailed next to it from tariffs and nationalistic policies. it's just a question of how extreme those policies are at this point. lizzy: will we get euro dollar parity before the end of the

year? patrick: no, i don't see that happening, but we are going to go into an environment where the fed probably won't be able to cut as much as the market has been expecting or has been expecting recently, but the e.c.b. will have cuts in 2025. that should lead to dollar strength. and if you are in an environment where there are currency wars, one of the best levers you have, the best weapons you have in a trade war is your currency. so i don't think europe is really going to fight a weaker euro given some of the head winds from tariffs who may actually come trade wars, you want a weak currency, and that basically off sets some of the tariffs as well. lizzy: certainly something that christine lagarde is going to be keeping an eye on, the exchange rate of trump's policy on the e.c.b. patrick armstrong, always good to talk to you. thanks for joining us this thanksgiving. happy holidays to you. coming up on the program, u.s.

regulators have turned their focus to microsoft with a wide-ranging investigation into its offerings from a.i. to cloud computing. what does it mean for the company? we'll bring you details next. this is bloomberg. ♪

lizzy: welcome back. to tech now, the u.s. f.t.c. has opened an antitrust investigation of microsoft. it's going to be drilling into everything from the company's cloud computing and software licensing businesses, to cybersecurity and its a.i. products as well. sources say that the demand, which is hundreds of pages long, have been sent to the company after the federal trade commission chair signed it off. let's get analysis of what it actually moons by bloomberg's peter armstrong, who joins me at the table. peter, this is being seen as a passing shot from the f.t.c. donald trump has been saying we can expect some lighter regulations from him. i wonder if you were microsoft,

how worried you would be about this? peter: we've seen the biden administration trying to wrap up a few of the initiatives they've taken over the last four years. they realize the republican administration is coming in and they're trying to finish some of these things. on the tech front, they're worried about the export controls. now we've got the ant trust investigations coming out of the f.t.c. and the justice department. this is quite an aggressive look at microsoft from lien achan. she's led the effort on big tech. they've gone after google, they've gone after a number of other companies. now we're seeing the focus really on microsoft. the concern here is whether the company is wrapping a bunch of its services together to give itself some kind of advantage. that includes their cloud computing services, which are very important these days, their artificial intelligence services. the company behind chap gpt, and also their cybersecurity, and the federal government is one of their customers. this is an aggressive look. this is a bloomberg exclusive

story, and they tell us that they've been looking into this for about a year at this point. they're now going to the company trying to get answers for some of these concerns from their business partners and from their customers. lizzy: it's not the only thing the f.t.c. has been up to. uber also facing a probe on its subscription service. how damaging is that for uber? peter: again, this is just the beginning of it, but the uber one subscription is something people pay a monthly fee of $100 to $100 a year. the concern is that it may be difficult to cancel those subscriptions. this is a common practice of many american companies. unfortunately, once you sign up for something and you're getting that credit card billing statement every month, it's hard to cancel it in the end. they want uber to do a better job of making it easy to cancel. uber says it only takes about 20 seconds to cancel. there's got to be some common ground. lizzy: i've lost track of the subscriptions i have running at once. finally, i want to ask you about

this meeting between mark zuckerberg and trump at mar-a-lago. i can't forget in the documentary, zuck described trump as a bad ass. peter: that's right, well, i don't think mark zuckerberg is looking for a position in the white house. it was four years ago that facebook actually banned trump from the platform. i think right now you're seeing a lot of business leaders trying to build relationships with the trump administration. some have the kind of profile where they can go directly to trump. some people are going for other executives within the administration. i think everybody is looking at the ground that elon musk has taken within the administration, seeing how prominent he is, what kind of prominence he has within the leaders there. and they would like to have that kind of relationship as the trump administration comes in and begins to change what's anticipated to be many policies across the board. lizzy: you're going to feel threatened if you're mark

zuckerberg getting cozy with the president-elect. peter: yeah, and republicans have gone after social media in particular very aggressively so far. lizzy: peter, thank you so much for giving us that context. and we're going stay with tech, because meanwhile, shares of chinese driverless tech firm has fallen in its u.s. trading debut after an early pop. bloomberg was speaking to the c.e.o. and co-founder about their strategy amidst the rising tech and trade tensions between washington and beijing. >> in terms of the sanctioneds on the chips, for us, it's nothing new. we have dealt with this for quite some time already. our strategy was and remains to be that we will diversify our supply chain. i think as the one more chips, come out from neither china or

the rest of the world, we'll try to have more diversified supply chain to further derisk our exposure to the geopolitical tensions. >> hi, james. we met, i believe, at the beijing auto show earlier this year. i did take a ride in one of your pony a.i.-equipped toyota cabs in beijing. i do understand that you're a company that had some robo trials in the bay area, but also in multiple cities in china. you've kind of got influence in both the united states and china. what was the main questions as you tack your company public in new york, what was the main concerns, if you will, of potential investors when you went on that road show in the united states with increased geopolitical tensions? >> pricing, actually the

geopolitical tension question wasn't front and center of the investors, but rather more focused on the economic side of the robo taxi. people are really interested in figuring out what will be time for the robo taxi to be actually large scale deployed and be profitable. so i think the -- the good news is people really believe that zero to one has already finished, and now it's the time for the companies to really go to the large scale commercialization. >> what does that look like, james? right now you're operational in four of the top tier one cities. what ask that actually look look over the coming one to two years? i know you're going continue to

focus your efforts primarily in china. talk to us about the competitive pressures that you face there as well. >> yes, especially if you're talking about the next two years, our main focus will be on the tier one cities of china, and actually just this year, we also signed a deal with beijing auto to mass produce. so that means the next two years will have at least three models coming out of the assembly line, will be launched into the tier one cities in china. so i think with the support of the -- for the support of the regulations and the residents actually get more familiar with our services. i think we will have a much larger fleet, have a bigger coverage, and hopefully the world will be able to actually have much larger scale commercialization.

lizzy: that was the co-founder and c.e.o. still ahead on "bloomberg markets," we're going to turn to the middle east as a moment of peace, we'll look amount the truce between israel and hezbollah, whether it can last and whether it will be the foundation for broader peace. stay with us. ♪

lizzy: welcome back to "bloomberg markets." to the middle east now, where residents of southern lebanon are returning after a 60-day cease-fire between israel and hezbollah has taken hold. moody's in the past couple of minutes has said that the cease-fire is reducing one risk to global markets, but it's too early to tell if other risks

will be eased. let's get more on the tensions in the middle east with bloomberg's reporter. good to have you with me round the table. i wonder how the cease-fire is holding up. it was in place since dawn yesterday. how is it being received on both sides? >> so far it seems to be holding from what we've heard. there's been some difference in the way that parties have reacted. we've seen a huge amount of traffic from beirut to southern lebanon, where those families, hundreds of thousands who were displaced, to leave the southern border areas, have been trying to go back. they've been told by both lebanese officials and told in quite strong terms by the i.d.f. as well not to rush into those villages and towns yet. and i think we're in a situation where obviously a lot of lebanese want to go back to

their homes. they want to go back to their homes on the southern border, but at the same time, it's not clear whether that area close to the river, where the cease-fire covers where the cease-fire specifically has been complemented, how safe it is, and the extent to which the i.d.f. has kind of regards it as clear of any operations at the moment. lizzy: that's the very short term. what about the longer term? what are reconstruction in lebanon? do we have any idea who's going pay for it? >> it's a huge question mark. we have a massive question mark over gaza as well. there's been some comments today that suggest that because of the cease fair, there's more impetus for a cease-fire or the beginning, or the return and revival of talks for a cease-fire in gaza. we've had hamas statements today pointing to that effect. the iranians have also quite

cautiously welcomed what's happened in lebanon, because i think they've been quite keen to contain the war and contain escalations as much as they can. but there's question if reconstruction is going to be a huge one. the lebanese have been here before. it's a massive, massive, massive question mark for the future. lizzy: i remember going to beirut and seeing bullet holes in the balcony even in peace time. what happens after the 60 days? you talk about potentially a goods apeace deal. how does one leave this? >> it sets the scene, i guess, it creates the mood music, if you like diplomatically. but there's obviously this important component, this kind of elephant in the room, if you will, which is the trump administration. so when he comes into offices in january, there's going to be a lot hanging on how he wants to direct his middle east policy,

what his approach and attitude is going to be. lizzy: thank you so much for taking us through that, as we -- this cease-fire deal holds for the first day, it's been in place since dawn yesterday. we hope it will continue for the rest of the 60 days and lead to a broader peace am coming up on the program, we're going to look at economies in europe and the u.s. of course, we've got political turmoil in europe, especially in france. but we are looking at the cac quarante higher in thes higher .7% of a percent. french yields lower to 2.95%. we shall discuss that and the hopes for a budget settlement, if they can get one in paris coming up next. do stay with us for that conversation here on "bloomberg markets." ♪

lizzy: welcome back to bloomberg markets. it is just coming after 3:30 p.m. here. happy thanksgiving if you are celebrating. u.s. markets are closed but european equities are green across the screen. the stoxx 600 higher currently. the dax, higher .8%. it is a happy day, really, but then volumes. tech still leading the gains here, and wall street futures also pointing higher. if we flip over to the

cross-asset picture euro-dollar a touch weaker. the yield on 10 year weaker, seven basis points at 2.9%. brent trading at $73 a barrel after opec-plus delayed its meeting to december 5. you have gold trading at 2600 $38 an ounce. stronger .1%. get more now from jennifer lee, bmo capital markets senior economist. can take a look at what is going on under the hood in europe and the u.s.. good to have you with me, jennifer. in the u.s. we have this bump in core pce. doesn't not k-fed december cut off the table? jennifer: thank you for having me today. the pcv report overall was broadly stronger. there is a softer spending number for october but it looked like consumers were still spending on lots of areas. especially the key discretionary areas like dining out, staying

at hotels. the only part that was a little bit dicey was the fact that the core pce deflator was sticky, and that sort of kind of focuses on the inflation front. we saw the latest cpi figure for the u.s., also stick euros well. it puts the whole december rate cut narrative under the radar. and it is still very much undecided. we are still sticking with our rate cut call. everything is going to be data-dependent, but right now it looks like it is still coming down enough and giving enough clearance for the fed to start cutting again, or continue cutting in december. 2025 rolls around all options are open and we will have to see how things go. lizzy: a lot of uncertainty heading into the new year. with donald trump, of course,

taking the white house again. i wonder where you see this rise in u.s. savings rate. do you interpret that as the consumer getting more cautious? jennifer: it is interesting, because it does have its ups and downs. i would like to think that salaries are still rising. that is the most important factor for the consumer. for the workers to continue to see steady increases in incomes. it is up .5%, which is matching the average over the past year. as long as the workers see a steady income, get a steady paycheck coming into their bank accounts, that is key. i think they are going to be putting it aside for writing today because there is uncertainty about how things are going to play out. at the same time it is interesting because a recent poll was showing that consumers want the president-elect to deal with high inflation and high prices. i grocery prices is one of his

first things to do in his first 100 days. consumer confidence is higher because there is a lot of hope coming in with the new administration. lizzy: given that uncertainty, if we look to the ecb now why would they cut by 50 basis points if they could wait and see what donald trump is going to do and given that there is not that big of a gap between the december and january meetings? what do you reckon? jennifer: all the ecb governing council members have been pointing to our rate cut in december, so i think 50 basis points is -- i don't think -- that might be discussed, but tony five basis points is the most reasonable move right now. it is going to be, again, as president lagarde has said, data-dependent. again, it is going to be depending on how the data play out. most of the data have been good recently. that paved -- paved the way for

a cut in december, but everything is going to be up in the cash up in the air. you will see how the president-elect takes over on january 20. i think europe is quite nervous because europe also has a traits of cross -- a trade surplus with the u.s.. lizzy: christine lagarde come of course, encouraging negotiation rather than retaliation in an interview with the financial times. we talk about germany and a lot about its economic weakness i wonder whether you think it should be learning from the periphery in europe? i was speaking to an ecb official the other day that was pointing to success in spain. maybe that was something we should be thinking about? jennifer: interesting. spain has been doing extremely well but i think every country has its own unique, you know, situation. germany has had a lot of problems, with the energy crisis come of course.

heavy reliance on china, a slow transition to ev's, and the political situation is not helping at all. with the coalition falling apart and having a confidence vote later on next month. it is difficult to put policies through. where i am heartened is that it sounds like more these government -- government officials are trading around and becoming more relaxed, or at least more flexible about relaxing the debt rate. even angela merkel came out and said there is a time and place for it and now there is time to change things up and change the debt break. and release it a little bit. there is hope for germany as well, i think come on that front. it is still a long time coming. lizzy: so you are confident that germany can regain competitiveness? do you see a willingness to implement mario draghi's report? jennifer: i think there is willingness to do something.

they're not they are going to be able to implement everything he says in that report is another story. it requires a lot more spending. 800 billion euros per year, and a lot of governments are unwilling to spend. you have france, for example, trying to pass his budget. they are trying to rein in their spending. the opposite of germany, where we are trying to get them to increase their spending. a lot of difficulties on a country by country basis, but obviously what mario draghi has to say is important and i think everyone is on board with it. it is just how to get there is the big question. it's going to take a long time before we can get to agreement on that. lizzy: i want to in here where i am in the u.k.. you have been forecasting on the pound. relatively cautious. there is no talk of jumbo cuts here. are we going to see strength for

sterling in 2025? jennifer: you know what? the currency market has been a most impossible to call. a little bit more relaxed with the u.k., because the u.k. is not as worried about tariffs with u.s. because they actually have a little bit of a deficit with the u.s.. or at least a balanced trade with the u.s. in some ways. it's difficulty is getting everyone to figure out what you want to do because even though you have the extreme dove, but of course everyone on the others of the equation is split between hawkish and dovish and is. even between governor and chief economist cannot agree either. we still see the bank of england cutting rates, but not until february, and about 75 to 100 basis points for next appeared hopefully we are going to see more stability on the pound, but everything is going to be up in the air depending on what

happens on january 20, 2025. lizzy: they have been singing from a lot of different sheets. jennifer lee, good to talk to you as we look ahead to 2025. americans are hitting the road and airports for the thanksgiving holiday, but that is only a sample of what to expect across the globe as the -- as the holiday travel season ramps up. we are going to discuss that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

lizzy: welcome back to bloomberg markets. it is 3:42 p.m. in london, and it is thanksgiving. you might be flying, because in the u.s. americans are getting ready to jet off for what is said to be the busiest eggs giving travel day ever. let's take the temperature with sid philip, who joins me now on set. i wonder what is expected this thanksgiving travel season? is he going to be busy compared to previous holidays? >> this is going to be the disease travel period of all-time. the tsa has said there will be 18.3 million people traveling during the holiday period. that is a lot of people going through security, a lot of people getting on airplanes, and everyone is looking up to see any disruption coming. travel seems to have been all right, but there is some talk about their may be some bad weather coming into the midwest, as well as the northeast. that could potentially disrupt some travel if your waiting

until the last minute. it will be an interesting travel period, and especially for the u.s., which has seen -- the airline industry has seen such a huge surge in demand. this is a continuation of that trend where people are traveling as much as they can to go see family and friends and everyone else. lizzy: are they all heading home or going to cheaper places and then firing -- flying back to the u.s., perhaps? sid: going home is a big part of the american tradition, but there are people traveling to different places. the early industry, the airlines are laying on the flights, adding capacity. an capacity is constrained. there are, the flights are expensive. there may be people going to more exotic locations instead of going home. that could potentially see a lot of travel there as well. lizzy: we have also seen spirit airlines bankruptcy. what does that mean for travel?

sid: the spirit encrypts he is an interesting perspective. while the bondholders will get control, the airline has said it will have zero impact on passengers and their staff and planes, essentially. essentially the airline has talked about how they are going to keep on, how they are going to keep flying, and have asked people to keep booking with them. as they look to get on the others. they sort of are trying to get business going and keep passenger flows coming in. otherwise it will be bad for their overall business. lizzy: in general what are the airlines doing to get this travel going? i absolutely hate when my flight is delayed or canceled. are they offering refunds, points, miles? sid: this will be the first test of the new rules the dot has put in place, so where they mandated automatic refunds for canceled flights, as well as compensation standards, which we have seen in europe for a while. so this will be a major test of that.

essentially the airlines are meant to give passengers an automatic refund if their flight gets canceled as well. and also the u.s. government has talked about how they are waging war on junk fees. it will be interesting to see what the various airlines do and how they respond to it. and whether or not those rules actually function. lizzy: we think about the chapters of airline, the airline sector's health, or we calling this revenge travel or have things stabilized a bit? sid: it has become an unequal recovery. revenge may not be across the board. we have seen the ultra local cost carriers which were booming during the post-pandemic era. they have seen business going slow, whereas the carriers like delta and american airlines and united are seeing passengers continuing to fill up planes. especially the front of the planes. that is the upper business class

and first class cabins are going full. there is a dichotomy in the travel industry recovery, and essentially while it may not be fair to call it revenge travel for the back of the plane, certainly in the front. lizzy: we had the easyjet ceo recently saying on bloomberg that they had this record summer beating last year's record and they managed to reduce the enter losses in the airline and this is a phenomenally good time for them. so maybe also for easyjet within this airline? sid: they fly to maine airports, where as ryanair and others fly to the smaller airports. therefore there may be some dichotomy there. ryanair has talked about how there has been pressure, so it has not been equal. also ryanair has struggled with planes and capacity. obviously issues with engines on the ag 20's, and while ryanair

cannot get enough max jets. what those airlines are struggling at the moment in terms of adding capacity and getting capacity in the air, for easyjet they brought the right mix with the ag 20's. so they haven't been affected as much. the outgoing ceo has seen business going through a really good time for him. lizzy: sid philip, thank you for taking the temperature of the airline sector this thanksgiving holiday. good to have you with me, as always. coming up, we are going to continue our conversation about the health of the consumer. we are going to hear from the consumer of you deliver about the company's turnaround efforts and how it is navigating the geopolitical tensions. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

lizzy: this is one of our top interviews now. you deliver is working to fine-tune its business strategy and bid geopolitical turmoil. the ceo tells bloomberg's francine lacqua about the company's decision to pull out of russia and how it plans to navigate possible u.s. tariffs. >> i mean tariffs and protection is always disruptive for businesses that operate globally. i recognize that, but if it is a reality then it is a reality. what we have been doing over the last few years is, in general, after covid we have made our markets in general more self-sufficient. so if you look at our china market, it is essentially self-sufficient. india for sure is. the u.s. is mostly self-sufficient, with some imports from mexico. but that is not material to the group. it is not significant and we have an agile supply chain that

if it comes to that point we could reallocate our production from those factories to other parts of our network and make the u.s. even more self-sufficient. we are adapting fast. we are agile. it is not of material impact to the group, but we are watching it closely. >> does it influence your decision on where to cut jobs? >> at this point it doesn't. no. we have made an announcement on a restructuring program you're probably referring to in march. 7500people. >> 7500 people. that was for two reasons. we are making the organization ready for a unilever without ice cream, and that needs to be a lighter organization. and we wanted to be ahead of that merger and take measures now. reason number two, we have changed the structure. i talked to you about strategy and structure. we have changed the structure to be faster, to be able to scale these brands faster across the

globe. when you do that you need to take the consequences that, hey, it can be a bit -- we can be more efficient, and that is what we are doing. >> do you worry about unfair advantage for some of your competitors based in the u.s.? >> we are based in the u.s. >> you are not headquartered there. someone like pepsi, do they have an advantage under trump? >> i don't think so. we have been in the u.s. for decades. it is our largest market. we have phenomenal u.s.-centric rants. i talked about the prestige beauty, but also well-being, such as liquid iv, and on the well-being side. we are in many ways in that market. we are an american company. i believe the u.s. government has every interest to work with companies overseas that are active in america to promote investment in north america, to

care for jobs, to do the right thing for that market. >> you also divested what you had in russia. maybe some of your competitors will not have to going forward. was it a mistake to get rid of it? >> you know, russia, something that was a very difficult decision to make. i found out in my last 1.5 years it was our ghibli the most difficult decision to make. but i did make it quite soon, in the sense someone is to create optionality for us to exit that orchid, which, that was a tedious process. it took us more than 12 to 14 months to come to that point, that we were able to exit. at some point in september i felt i had the optionality on the table, and, again, it was difficult, but i made the decision to go not because of the war going on right now, but because i felt that the control on our business was coming down.

i feel that ultimately if you are a global company you need to have control of your operations. need to be able to review results. we need to be able to get the cash out of the country. we need to be able to make sure we live up to potentially international sanctions. we need to control our brands. that was something i felt was not enough anymore, and i did not see a window into the future where we would regain that control. that drove the decision to exit. >> talking about ben & jerry's, the way ben & jerry's was set up was having an independent board. will that be the case going forward given a lot of the questions you have just been telling me about? >> and jerry's an independent board and that board, that looks after the social mission of injuries only. it is not a board that looks at the business side of ben & jerry's, because that is what we do. it looks after the social

mission that is there. that was agreed at the time unilever required ben & jerry's. it is in the merger agreement and we respect that agreement. therefore the new i scream company will respect that merger agreement. >> is it tough when politics gets into selling products? >> you know, in the case of ben & jerry's, look, that rand, we acquired it at a sales level of 120 million dollars or something like that and we have grown into a brand that has been growing successfully. part of the success of ben & jerry's is a social mission. the way they speak out and speak up and as long as that fits you know, the brand, peace, love, and i scream, i'm all for that. it is a wonderful thing to do. you need to be careful that is a company you don't take political sides when that is not necessary . so, sometimes that brings a certain tension, but i believe it is a healthy tension.

they keep us on our toes and it is a great brand. i'm sure it will be successful going forward. lizzy: that was the unit -- unilever ceo. you will have plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪

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lizzy: welcome back to bloomberg markets. i'm lizzy burden in london. it is 11:00 a.m. in new york. it is, of course, thanksgiving. happy holidays if you are celebrating. it does mean u.s. markets are closed. then volumes everywhere else, but european equities are in the green. the ftse 100 ever so slightly in the red, but the ftse 250 .7%. the cac eking out .4% of gains,

despite the political turmoil. concessions have been made by the finance minister to the national rally. we have the sector break down switching up a little bit thanks leading the gains. they are higher nearly 1%. consumer products and services here in europe, as we look ahead to wall street, s&p even. futures are higher .3%. nasdaq futures higher .4%. if we put the board to the cross as a picture, you can see the euro-dollar weaker. the 10 year, 2.96%. as we digest this turmoil, lower six basis points. not quite at the level of greece's benchmark yield. lower now because of these concessions, politically, but brent trading at $73 a barrel.

stronger .3% as we head toward this opec-plus meeting. and gold trading at 2006 hundred $37 an ounce. just a touch -- 2637 an ounce. we have americans eating turkey today. we have the black friday sales kicking off on friday. it is an important opportunity to take the temperature on the u.s. consumer. let's discuss now what andrea clark rog -- anddria varnado, who serves on the boards of red robin gourmet burgers and patent beauty. you are a busy woman. tell me how you think consumers are going to fair here. they have got inflation, they have got interest rates to contend with. how is that going to impact shopping habits? anddria: there are a number of economic indicators that is a mixed bag. we heard that consumer sentiment

and purchasing power is at a high, but at the same time you are still dealing with elevated interest rates. even though inflation is easing many consumers are still per -- still comparing their purchasing power to what they saw post-pandemic. there are three trends we are going to see when it comes to shopping. we are looking at the commodification of shopping, with more e-commerce delivering service. shipping becomes just as important. you will see customers trading off quality and price point for delivery and service. you will also see some testing of our consumer values. we have talked about sustainability and doing the right thing for the world. however, we have seen sustainability come at a higher price point. you will see customers trade off. finally, we have been talking about value. when all of those economic ended -- indicators come together there is a focus on value. it is not just from a price

point perspective. consumers want something that helps them save money. however, they are looking for longevity and function. what we will see in the shopping season is more customers purchasing functional items, heirloom items like jewelry, and even productivity. smartphones, tablets, things they know will have that lasting power for them. lizzy: how do you think consumers will be willing to -- how much do you think consumers will be willing to pay for sustainability? will they keep paying this premium, given you have the cost of living higher at the moment? anddria: you will see a bit of that trade-off. i think we will see sustainability come in different ways. previously we talked about how the product is made. customers have been focused on the raw goods, the material, or the off-gassing. what we will likely see is more of an impetus toward up cycling, reusing products. customers and retailers will focus on packaging so things

that can bring in at a lower price point help the environment. that is where we see a shift in our sustainability efforts this year. lizzy: do you think it will be generational? do you think younger generations would be willing to pay more for sustainable products? or can they afford to do that? anddria: that is a great question. you see that is -- are saying that is important to them and they are willing to trade up. they are not as focused on the volume of product and more about the quality and experience it delivers. what i think we will see is a higher price point on these items that are good for the environment, but we will see a lower volume in that generation of purchases altogether so they can focus their pricing and purchases on the products that really matter. lizzy: how much does this trend of prioritizing experiences over material goods continue? does it fade as economic conditions improve and inflation comes down? anddria: it shifts and looks

different than it has in the past. in the past when we have talked about experiences we really focus on travel. i think this season what we will see is more focus on entertainment, concerts, time together. even dining experiences. they will happen at a lower, more moderate price point that may not need the multi-day excursion we have talked about in the past. lizzy: how do traditional retailers tap into that trend of needing to focus on experiences? anddria: that is such an exciting question. in the retail environment tapping into that need for meaning and experience and stories and things they can share in these social moments, you will see retailers start to bundle services and experiences with their products. for example, i'm going to sell you a coffee machine, but also offer you this recent workshop. that way you have a good return on your investment. you can do that with a family

member and you will see retailers start to bring in skills, workshops, experiences, classes, and things of that sort to tie to their product purchases. lizzy: we were just playing a little package about the bloomingdale's collaboration with wicked. an experience to behold there. finally, one other trends are you expecting to see this holiday season as we end the year in the u.s.? anddria: i think we will see retailers continue to double down on limited time offerings. we have talked about the digital convenience, whether it is these marketplaces that are able to sell products at a lower price point, some of your branded retailers will say, how can i compete against that? what they will look to is bundling services. i think customers will be really receptive of that because as they are looking to design or activity, they will also look at these limited time offerings you have mentioned. the bloomingdale's collaboration

with wicked. you will see more opportunities for customers to meet directly with brands and is that urgency and time. finally what we need to remember is, this is a shorter holiday shopping season. we will see some really interesting peaks and cycles as many customers realize it is mid december and they need to make their purchase before christmas. i think we will see a shift in volume and activity. lizzy: do you think the election of donald trump affects their shopping habits at all? we have talked about him affecting pretty much every other topic we have mentioned on the program. what about the u.s. consumer? anddria: i think it creates a level of uncertainty that consumers are looking for. they will be looking over the next six months, probably be a little more cautious in their purchasing as they determine what policies are enacted. everything from tax cuts to tariffs and how that will affect the supply chain. i think it will have an impact

on how customers think about their next three to six months. once the new presidency takes office, just because it is a shift in policy we will have much more visibility and foresight. customers, whether negative or positive, customers will have more confidence in how they should purchase because they understand what the policies look like for the next few years. lizzy: anddria varnado, tell expert, get to have you with me. i will let you enjoy your thanksgiving. thanks so much for being on the program. we are going to come back to europe and we have bond yield matching that of greece earlier in the day for the first time ever. we are going to discuss that next and how the political crisis is going to unfold. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

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lizzy: let's get over to france where the rate on ten-year french notes, traditionally considered among the safest in the euro area, at one point today matched greece's for the first time on record. the latest milestone in a week marked by mounting anxiety over the fate of the government. we can speak now to alan katz for more on the latest developments.

because there have been more since we last spoke. jordan bordello has been saying that the concessions made by finance minister -- by the finance minister are a victory for national rally. i wonder if michel barnier can leave -- can breathe a sigh of relief or whether it is a sign he will give an inch and they will take a mile? >> thanks for having me back on. the answer is, maybe the latter. i did say this is a victory for them. the victory he is talking about is the announcement they would not raise taxes on electricity, as had been previously planned. far-right national rally has positioned themselves as trying to protect working-class and middle-class people. a smaller decline in electricity prices would have hit a lot of their voters in the pocketbooks. this is something they can take home as a political victory. they say they are going to push

for other concessions, whether or not banier agrees to that. it has become more strident to push out the prime minister may be as soon as next week. now we have the government moving on a particularly big pocketbook issue that the right has been talking about for some time. it does seem there is the beginnings of a shift that might end up with the national rally agreeing to abstain on a no-confidence motion. that would allow barnier to continue. he is giving an inch, they are going to try to take a mile. lizzy: let's take a -- let's take a look at what marine le pen has been saying. intentionally an offramp, but a lot of strong rhetoric from her. take a listen.

>> this is not a surprise. we always said it, for the past three months. i'm telling you, if this is not approved it will apply and actually is not as bad as this one because there are less taxes for the working and middle classes. lizzy: they will not raise taxes on electricity, but what is it going to take to get marine le pen to play ball? alan: they have said they want several other things. among the items they want is an indexation of the retirement payments that was supposed to be delayed. a part of it was supposed to be delayed from january to july. they want that increase to be played -- to be paid out in january, as was initially planned. they are not really budget-related, such as a big reduction in medical payments

for illegal immigrants. if he illegal immigrants search for medical care they can get those paid by the government. and there is a series of other measures. again, some of which are certainly possible for the government to do, and to do relatively easily politically. it is short-term decisions that can be made on eliminating some tax increases they had previously planned. some of which, like structural reforms or payments to the european union, which cannot be done quickly. the question becomes, are these really things that marine le pen and the national rally would now nevertheless go and push out the government over something like this? bearing in mind if that happens the budget goes out the window and all of these gains they are getting, this victim re-disappears? it is not at all clear that those comments from marine le pen earlier were from yesterday

or the day before, it really has changed now that he has started to give concessions. lizzy: just from a markets perspective i don't want to over blow the significance of the fact that the french ten-year borrowing cost is matching greece's for the first time. is it a red herring or an important marker? alan: i would say both, actually. the reason france's borrowing costs have matched greece's is less about france and more about greece. greek borrowing costs have dropped over six months and it is because greece has gone its fiscal house in order and has become in many ways the darling of all and investors among european countries. as a result greek bond yields have dropped much more sharply than french bond yields. but both are on a declining path at the moment. that said, france really used to be the next best thing to

germany. it was a big european country that was sort of viewed as almost as safe and as germany they used to be 20, 30 basis points between the two, and that widened for quite some time. now it has widened to 80 to 85 basis points. bond investors do view france as riskier and less the darling it used to be. to answer your question, ok, yes, it is not to say france is in terrible straits with bond investors by making that comparison, but it doesn't show there is tension in the bond market and people are worried about this political crisis, and france's deficit, which remains large. lizzy: it is not just the bond space. it is stocks as well. the cac, the second-biggest underperformance since the euro began. you can see it relative to the stoxx 600, the underperformance there. but today not really playing

out. the french banks all in the green, perhaps because of those concessions you mentioned. alan katz in paris, we thank you for that analysis on the political situation and how it is being read in the markets in france. coming up, a 60-day cease-fire between israel and hezbollah doesn't seem to be taking hold. it has prompted residents to return. we will bring you all of the details next. this is bloomberg. ♪

lizzy: buckham back to bloomberg markets. it is 4:20 in london and we are looking at brent having slipped into the red, but in the green at $72 a barrel. traders considering this delay to the opec-plus meeting on december the fifth, but also the

geopolitical backdrop. have residents of southern lebanon returning after a 60-day cease-fire between israel and hezbollah has taken hold. let's get more on the easing tensions with golnar. we have had this cease-fire, how is it holding up? lizzy: on the ground, from what we have heard, it seems to be holding up from a military point of view. but there is a huge and out of movement from beirut towards southern lebanon, more than a million people were displaced in lebanon as a result of this conflict. so there are huge numbers of families trying to move back to their villages and homes. now the idf has said the lebanese government has told him not to rush back. that they do not have the all clear or greenlight yet in

certain villages and towns. and there have been reports of attacks by the idf on what they claim more hezbollah facilities. it seems to be holding but there are concerns about the way and means by which people can get back to their homes in lebanon. lizzy: do they have homes to go to? what about the construction? >> there has been a huge amount of destruction. concentration has been around there, but there are other areas of the lebanon and many parts of beirut that have been affected. basically, anything we have seen as a hezbollah-linked target of any persuasion appears to have been bombed or attacked. lizzy: there are hopes this cease-fire is going to lead to a broader peace deal for gaza. have we heard anything about progress on that? golnar: we have had some upsides

from hamas that there is a willingness now, i think, to revive those cease-fire talks. but a lot of this depends on israel and what jimmy netanyahu wants to do. obviously we have this big elephant in the room in the scepter -- the ship of donald trump. we are not sure exactly how he is going to conduct his middle east policy this time around. whether it comes to israel and relatedly it comes to iran as well. lizzy: it hangs over every signal topic we are discussing on the program. i want to come to iran, because it has plans for talks with the european countries. it is on the agenda? what can we expect? golnar: what we know so far is that iran on a ministerial level is meeting officials from the theory -- e3 countries. these are all parties to the 2015 joint comprehensive plan of action. that was part of the nuclear

deal that was agreed back then, and that was pretty much torpedoed by donald trump when he was first in office in 2020. -- in 2018. that meeting is going to be important because it is the first major chance in's the iranians and the european counterparts are going to get a kind of -- it is the first hands -- first chance they are going to get to test where they stand on reviving nuclear talks going on. lizzy: going back to the elephant in the room, donald trump, how do you see the iran-trump relationship playing out? golnar: this is another fascinating question. i think it is a massive question for iranian officials. it is a huge question for iranians who have been living with really high inflation and sanctions, with very depleted oil revenues. and it is going to be a massive

test for iran's economy. we don't know. if we are going to go by trump nominations, it is kind of looking both very neoconservative, and strangely quiet anti-neoconservative on the foreign policy front. it is a big question mark and we have to see where the chips are going to fall come january. lizzy: you have written a fantastic piece on this. iran, bracing for this trump reset, with the economy going from sanctions across the domestic economy. also feeding into that picture? golnar: absolutely. the extent to which the exit, the u.s. exit, trump's exit from the nuclear deal affected the iranian company -- economy was profound. the currency has completely, sort of been decimated in terms of its week is. quite literally, almost. it is a huge deal. lizzy: golnar motevalli, thank

you for taking us through all of that. coming up, we are going to discuss the risks to the global economy with ludovic subran, head of economic research at allianz. this is bloomberg. ♪

lizzy: welcome back to bloomberg markets. i'm lizzy burden in london. it is thanksgiving. happy holidays if you are celebrating. markets are closed they are, but in europe we are moments away from the closing bell. we have had the political turmoil in france rippling across the markets, particularly in the bond space. as we look at the equity picture the cac has managed to eke out gains today. it is higher .6%. the ftse 100, perhaps the weakest index across europe, but

the dac is higher .8% as well. these are thin volumes, mind you, because of the american holiday. but if you break it down by sector across europe you have banks leading the gains, higher 1%, and consumer products and services weaker .6%. that is where we stand at the end of this thanksgiving day in terms of european markets. let's get to the economics that has been impacting it as well. have had some critical -- we are going to get some critical eurozone economic it out tomorrow. we can speak to ludovic subran, chief economist and head of economic research at allianz now. we have political crises in france and germany. france very much the focus today. the backdrop to every conversation we are having at the moment is donald trump pushing this american first agenda. we know we going to get euro-dollar. ? ludovic: that is a good

question. i try not to use a board prices for a situation which is -- how can i call it -- evolving. the french situation is particularly near to my heart. we hope not to have a change of government, like a collapse of the government. but it is a tight margin right now and marine le pen is really the kingmaker here. the prime minister just decided to make a deal on the tax on electricity, which means less received by $3 billion -- 3 billion pounds. -- 3 billion euros. this is going to be a critical next couple of weeks. i do think it is looking good. i think we could get better. on germany, we have two months to make a very strong decision. can germany's economic model change? can germany get additional financing for the many transitions from aging to tech to climate?

i'm quite optimistic because i'm european that this would get through a good posture, but we have to wait for another two months. in the meantime we see president-elect donald trump try to push balance entree. whatever is happening on trade is having effects on the eurozone, for sure. lizzy: do you expect the euro zone to respond to trump tariffs with tariffs? we have seen christine lagarde encouraging negotiation over retaliation. do you think it will fall to her to respond to monetary policy, even how constrained europe is fiscally? ludovic: there are two parts to question. i think the ecb needs to continue to loosen interest rates, in spite of the fed may be being stuck with three inflation caused by some of the policy decisions that president-elect donald trump could take. there is a discrepancy here. it means the euro could be a parity with the dollar. that is the first thing. i do think the impetus in europe

warrants the lack of impetus, warrants interest rates to go down by another 100 or 150 basis points in the next six months. military policy should be healthy spike the lack of physical discipline some people call for, especially in france. on the other hand i think europe needs to find a way not to retaliate, because it would be very costly to us. creating a lot of noise because this idea of negotiating with trump, especially buying american products, he does not unleash his wrath on exports from europe like on canada and mexico, is an interesting way to pick through the problem. not doing a tug-of-war, but seeing it is a win-win situation. for that you need strong leaders in europe. for that you need someone to talk to. who is that?

is it president macron? is that the president of the u.k. commission check up that is always the problem in europe. we have a problem knowing who to talk to. lizzy: you talk about how ecb rates are going to come down. the question is the pace at which that is going to happen. do you think we will see a 50 basis point cut at the december meeting or do you think that would signal more panic about growth than they are actually feeling? ludovic: i do think there is no need for 50 basis point cuts, and i think member of the ecb board was very clear and very hawkish in her last interview. i do think it is going to be a 25 basis points cut. i think we see another four to five quarter of a point cuts between now and the middle of next year. it's going to be gradual and it should be. the question is, depending on how much the fed could deliver, how many cuts the fed could deliver.

i think the ecb should be cautious. especially on supply-side shocks. don't know what could happen in the middle east. so i do think they need to be cautious, but there is a path right now for them to be loosening and managing a soft landing, so let's use that path. lizzy: you say france is close to your heart, and i understand we were talking to our colleague earlier about france matching greece's borrowing costs for the first time ever and whether that is actually significant or just psychological. i wonder if you see a further repricing across the french curve as you think about the long-term challenges facing the government there? ludovic: look, france is already trading as a single. i think there is bias that should confirm. in practice france has big

issues with deficits, but they are not coming no, that panicky. i would not be that worried. i think we need to really make an effort on the expenditure side. we need to redo the slippage. we have just come out of a sequence which is really negative where we saw this risk of slippage. we need to circumscribe that risk. i do think that the prime minister's budget was balanced. what comes out now is less balanced. so we may have five -- 5.4% next year, which is still ok. we need a bit of time and we should not be panicky. markets are giving a signal. which is, if you don't do a good adjustment we may actually ask for more money to lend to france. but it is still an 80 to 100-type of bandwidth. this is still manageable. of course it is very

psychological, and of course we should take the signal seriously that france needs to find a way to reduce the explosive nature, especially the social expenditures and especially also this reduced tax elasticity. we had less tax receipt than we had expected, or that italy and spain has, so we need to go back to some sort of normalcy here. any good path on that point is a big issue, so we need to show effort and focus. it is going to be long. as you know, it is a temporary government. by next july they may be gone. they may be gone by next week. it is a difficult situation to have the upper hand, because it is a [indiscernible] that we are to face. ludovic: ludovic subran, head of economic research at allianz, sharing some optimism on france. we will keep an eye on the french bond space tomorrow as s&p brings us that updated french credit rating through the

day tomorrow. coming up right here on bloomberg markets, u.s. consumers are looking for a good time. they are heading to the stores for black friday and the movie theaters as well for some holiday entertainment. we will bring you more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ well i was raised by careful hands ♪ ♪ yeah, they made me who i am ♪ ♪ so i'm off to see... ♪ we invent them. we design them. we build them. and one day, we have to let them soar. ♪ i'm always coming home ♪

lizzy: happy thanksgiving. welcome back. bloomingdale's is going for an immersive experience with the wicked moving and leaning into what has become a merchandising juggernaut. scarlet fu and romaine bostick went to bloomingdale's and sat down with the ceo for more on this. take a look. >> 3, 2, 1.

♪ >> it is a wicked pairing. >> of course, wicked. >> and an iconic flagship in new york city. >> it is bringing experience to the customer, excitement, energy. this is what we are doing. it is not only about selling products, but living a moment. >> bloomingdale's, transforming into the land of oz with 150 brands diving into the world of "wicked." >> the retailer is incorporating the frenzy around the movie into the shopping experience. >> retail is transactional, and i think we have to bring back more about the storytelling from our brand partners to the customer. this is all we are working on and it is a perfect illustration of what we are talking about. >> bloomingdale's is leaning into a more immersive model. >> the national retail federation expecting sales to

grow at a slower pace than last year due to a more discerning consumer. >> i think the department store model has a bright future, but it has to reinvent itself from the perspective of the customer, but also our brand partners. we have to be relevant for our brand partners and rethink the model. >> in year two the ceo oversees more than 30 stores and 20 outlets, with no plans to expand its international presence. however, the retail veteran he is relying on global style and shopping trends to help revive the u.s. department store experience. >> i have a source of inspiration in the u.s., but also abroad, which is another thing we may not be too domestic for christmas because we are going to miss some good trends happening somewhere in the world. we want to do less, but eager, more impactful, bolder. >> and no better time to go bold than the holiday season. >> we are building memories and the sales of the future by doing

that. so, we have to preserve these moments that are special for our customers, for our teams. we love this moment. when you like retail you love this holiday season. magic happens in the stores. lizzy: that was the bloomingdale's ceo, and it looks like the marketing for "wicked" is paying off. it is the top grossing film in theaters, bringing in 82 -- joining us as paul dergarabedian, at comscore. good to have you with me. thanks for sharing your thanksgiving with me. paul: great to be here. lizzy: i wonder whether boxx office sales can defy gravity? paul: it is amazing, and what the bloomingdale's ceo said is important. he said, we are building memories. that is what happens when you are in a physical space, enjoying something in the moment. that communal experience, either

at bloomingdale's or the movie theater, those are memories being created. as you said, wicked opened to 112 point $5 million in the u.s. this past week it is up to 161 million now. gladiator two, up to $72 million. and wanted to, that has already earned, it opened yesterday, had some previous on tuesday. has already earned 57 point $5 million domestically and 56.3 million dollars globally. this will be one of the biggest, if not the biggest thanks giving week for movie theaters ever, and that is music to the years of theater-owners, and it is great for audiences as well. lizzy: how does that wicked versus gladiator two rivalry compared to barbenheimer? paul: the combination of those two films was organic and fresh, and now everyone is looking for the next barbenheimber.

it raises the awareness for both movies, which it certainly does. and then it sets the stage for a final month of the year, for the box office, that will have a surge at the very end, which we definitely need in our numbers in mid june the boxx office domestically was down almost 30%. now it is down about 11%. by the time we get to the end of the year it will be in single digits. considering the headwinds at the beginning of the year with the strikes impacted the release calendar and the cadence of movies, this is big news, and it is so positive for theaters now and heading into 2025. lizzy: why is that? is it because of the threat from the streamers? what is going wrong? paul: i think what went wrong earlier in the year -- because we did not hit our stride in june, and then we had a string of hits after that -- was that

the release calendar for movie theaters was very fragile. when there were strikes and work stoppages that impacted not only the -- not only the ability to create films, but market them -- remember, a year ago stars could not go out and talk about their movies to the press, to the entertainment media. that impacted thanks and really took until about halfway into this year that the release schedule evened out. now production is fully ramped up. we have a great release late coming in the coming weeks with a lord of the rings animated movie, sonic the hedgehog three, a, then on christmas day we are going to have a slate of indie films that looks amazing with robert eggers' nose for two. nicole kidman in baby girl. and a complete unknown with timothy charlamagne as bob dylan. if you are a movie fan right now thanksgiving is a great time to see movies, but we are going to

get a lot of momentum, and that carries over into the box office of 2025. lizzy: he is not an unknown to me. he is one of my favorite actors. when you mentioned all of these stars, is that what translates into boxx office sales? or is it the reviews? what makes money? paul: that is a great question. on a filmlike nose for route 2 or complete unknown or baby girl indie films like that are definitely, it is about the reviews. critical response. then audiences who love those types of films, as they get that stamp of approval from the reviewers and critics they will go out and see them. on a movie like "wicked" and "gladiator," it is about the big brands. the movie twisters during the summer, deadpool and wolverine, the list goes on. now we have all of these branded

films in the fall. we had venom, "real jews, beetlejuice." those are known commodities. those are playing well. people want to know what they are getting into. on the indie side of the ledger they want something fresh, exciting, edgy. very filmmaker-focused. it is of two minds. it is cinematic fast food on the one hand and a cinematic fine dining on the other, and it works very well when it is working in synchronicity, for sure. lizzy: speaking of "gladiator two" i hope you will be entertained this holiday season. paul dergarabedian at comscore, we thank you for joining the program. coming up, a read on the mer eading into the holiday shopping season. we will be speaking to our retail team next. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

lizzy: let's look ahead at the retail sector's health this holiday season and what is the consumer story? of course we have lots of eco-data pointing to it. let's bring in -- or for more. i wonder what the trends are that you are picking up from the u.s. consumer names? >> the biggest one has been the bifurcation of the consumer. you have the lower income

consumers doing really poorly and struggling to decide what to buy or not to buy, but on the higher end the wealthier consumers being resilient. target has talked about it, and more recently you had calls for that it is the lower income consumer overall suffering from tough sales. and then there is nordstrom saying it saw improved spend across all of its cohorts, but the healthiest gain were in the higher-income group. that is super pronounced in the u.s. in some respects is also true in europe. lizzy: that is the same story we were hearing when it came to aviation earlier in the program. first and business class doing well but not the budget airlines and the economy section. as we approach black is that a big deal for these retailers? i feel like is actually a week, not a day. >> totally. this year in particular it is a

bigger deal than normal because the shopping period from thanksgiving to christmas in the u.s. is 26 days this year compared to 31 last year. you are sort of squishing in that spending, which makes black friday and cyber monday more important. i think the other way it is important is that the consumer is a real bargain hunter more than usual. they are searching around for the best deals. this is something they are definitely not going to spend, but a lot of retailers have been talking about how much harder they have to work to get them to spend. so, for that reason the perception, convincing people that it really is a good deal right now rather than just a gimmick, is where it is that, really, for the retailers. lizzy: do these trends carry across the pond? this bifurcation of the upper and lower ends? is that the same in europe? >> to some extent. although it is more pronounced

in the u.s. companies like nestle have been complaining about it, how stretched the lower income consumer is. i think things are a bit more even in europe, but there are elements of this. i think despite the higher income consumer being a bit better off i think it really applies to that middle segment. if you look at luxury spending, that is down. today we saw remy cointreau warning again about its sales and sort of doing, you know, declines there. two digit declines there, and then michael cause has also been talking about consumer demand being soft globally for luxury fashion, but especially in china. lizzy: they can only hope that these sales on friday give them a boost. we thank you for that look at the health of the consumer on both sides of the pond. that does it for our thanksgiving special. thanks so much for joining me.

i hope you will enjoy the rest of your holiday. if you are celebrating, you can get to your turkey, get to the shops, the cinema. thanks for joining us. the stoxx 600 ending the day higher, .5%. this is bloomberg. ♪