>> good friday morning.

i am paul sweeney in new york with caroline hyde. welcome to a special edition of "bloomberg markets." this is simulcast, radio and tv, doing it from the radio studio, which is an awesome radio studio. markets, futures, a little bit of green on this black friday. s&p up about eight points, dow 24 points, and nasdaq 21 points. black friday, everyone is shopping. vonnie quinn out at macy's, we talked to her earlier. caroline: i felt like the rather wet parade was synonymous with how some were feeling. paul: great point. i was surprised looking at the parade, people were out and about. it did not stop anybody, not the bands. caroline: did you do a turkey trot? it was packed. it was raining cats and dogs at

8:00 a.m. when i hit the road, and everyone showed up. rain or shine. paul: what was it, 5k, 10k? caroline: just a little 5k. paul: are you a runner? caroline: i am in terms of running for trains. 5k, exhausted. paul: we are going to break down some retail outlook, break down what is happening in the market. we have some 2025 forecasts. s&p 25% this year. caroline: phenomenal. paul: what do you do? i even had green in my fixed income space. high yield, leveraged loans were the places to be, where the real gains were made in fixed income in 2024 era not sure where to go in 2025? i think my federal reserve is cutting rates but not sure to what degree. caroline: and europe is on track for its worst underperformance versus the u.s. since 1976, folks.

s&p 500 having a stellar november on the back of the trump trade, reaction to the election. i think it is the best month since february. 141 billion dollars into u.s. equities, biggest inflows on record. to your point, how do you broaden this out and decide we're not just playing ai for the rest of 2025, too? paul: all that coming up in the next three hours, actually, doing this for three hours. let's see what is happening in the market. >> dd up around 2%, a boost for the chinese rate. the leader contemplates a potential reenlisting. net income, revenue rose 5%. this report shows a steady recovery for one of the fastest growing companies in china, even hailed as a national champion for driving uber out of china.

then beijing cracked down on data sharing practices. now it is relisting, but it is not the same as its glory days before. caroline: china is an instant -- interesting want to be shining a light on, because it has been a horrific november for chinese stocks. for asia more broadly, i noticed the changing a focus for social media companies. the story that has to be talked about is happening in australia, a ban for anyone under 16 using social media apps, but nobody knows how will this will be policed. >> it was passed thursday night and is one of the strictest laws outside of china and places that are not really authoritarian regimes. how do you impose this? the new law will take effect, snapchat, instagram, and x sing the government is not responsible for the age limits, their penalties for as much as $32 million if breached. but kids who find a way past

verification will not be penalized, as well as the parents, it is just the company. they question if the ban is lawful. and they say you cannot submit official documents like passports because it will breach the privacy of kids. paul: i do not know how you do this. when my kids were younger, they did not get the phones until they were in sixth grade or seventh grade, and now i see really young kids walking around with phones. caroline: signing up for wait to eighth, a group of parents getting together to agree not to give phones until eighth grade. paul: that is good. >> it is really different now from when i was younger. so hard to be a parent these days. again, once at the simplicity of the rule highlights the complexity of the issue. it is interesting to see

governments really trying to put their toes into this complex discourse. it is wildly popular, 77% support from people. but it is all about the implementation. you can have the best laws, but if you do not implement. paul: we can talk bitcoin. what about crypto? >> where to begin? last week, inching to $100,000, just $300 away from it, but it did not happen. microstrategy keeps buying, total number. of tokens is 38 billion they call themselves a country company -- a country and company. but it is not the same as the fomo days of 2021, when the peak was so high. it has become mainstream, but the thing about bitcoin is it was created to decentralize from the government, but now the biggest holders are the big wall street institutions.

and if the u.s. has a stockpile, than the u.s. government. paul: before the election, it was at 60,000, now close to 100,000. i guess that is the trump trade, i don't know. thank you so much for joining us for a breakdown on what is happening with some of the key names in the marketplace. this go to this market. a stellar move in the stock market in 2025, even bonds made money for you. what do you do next year? maria vassalou joins us, head of pictet research institute. thanks for joining us. as you sit back here in late november thinking about the performance we have had across markets and across regions of a 2024, how do you position 2025? >> first of all, thank you for having me. 2025 is going to be a very consequential year for the markets because geopolitics are

taking front stage, much more than we have seen in the previous year. as we see, there is a big polarization between the west and emerging markets that are rallying around the brics plus coalition that also other forces. therefore, we are seeing a polarization between west and more emerging-market type of economists, with europe in the middle. so that is going to create a lot of changes in the way we invest. certainly, we are going to see much more segmentation in the markets, a rise from potentially tariffs that will be added to the existing trade barriers. that could have an effect on correlations. but also performances of individual asset classes. being dynamic, being active, and

focusing on portfolio construction will be really key. paul: maria, we all woke up november 6 with a new american president and we now have a republican congress. how did that factor into your calculus thinking about global investment opportunities? >> well, for the time being, i think the u.s. will remain a great source of growth and performance in the markets. that has to do with the dynamism of the u.s. economy, its leadership, and innovation in technology. but also a number of the policies being contemplated or preannounced by the new administration could potentially unlock further growth in the u.s., especially if we see some level of deregulation, some level of incentives for further

strengthening of investments in technology and so on. caroline: does it remain equities being the outperformer? how will the u.s. treasury market be affected by the 2025 new administration and a republican sweep? >> well, we still have a fed that is likely to cut interest rates to some extent. i do not think that, as things stand now, there will be a huge margin for the fed to cut significantly. the u.s. economy is still performing quite well. inflation has really return to 2% in a convincing way. policies taking place in the new

year could have an inflationary effect, at least in the short term. let alone the geopolitical side. caroline: let's go to the geopolitics, where i think some of your notes and writing are fascinating. what are we thinking about the appetite to buy u.s. debt globally, if we see geopolitics rise and tensions between u.s. and china, in particular, continue to unravel? >> first of all, we have to keep in mind that not a huge amount of u.s. debt is in foreign hands, it is around 28% or so. so relative to other countries, such as france, for instance, were 50% of the government debt is in foreign hands, not a huge amount of the u.s. debt is held by foreigners. but we also need to keep in mind is that the u.s. is in a particularly privileged position because the u.s. of the u.s. dollar as a major reference

currency. not only that, it is also because the u.s. is the primary supplier of safe assets in the global financial system. so long as we do not have another currency or supplier of safe assets to replace the u.s., it is really very hard to sail u.s. treasuries and really reduce the foreign exchange reserves that various players have around the world. paul: maria, on the currency front, is there any bare case for the u.s. dollar out there? -- bear case for the u.s. dollar out there? >> i think there is in the medium to long run. short run, we see that the u.s. dollar moves mostly by geopolitical events, rather than inflationary concerns. so that is really what is going to keep the dollar strong.

but as time goes by, i think if brics plus, the coalition, manages to stay together and increase their trade together and creates some other form of payment could replace the u.s. dollar in a credible way, that is likely to chip away from the demand of u.s. dollars in the medium to long-term. that obviously is going to reduce the value of the u.s. dollar. paul: maria, thank you some much for joining us. maria vassalou, head of pictet research institute. we appreciate getting a couple minutes of her time here. i don't know, s&p up 25%, at some point i feel like we have to talk about valuation here to earnings come in pretty solid, but are they solid enough to support this continued move higher in the market? that is a question i have for a lot of strategists. caroline: you know my obsession

and role is to talk about technology. for me, the 22 for trade was the 2023 trade, nvidia -- the 2024 trade was the 2023 trade, nvidia. you have to look at the concentration in the customer base, how they go into the valuation, the most valuable company. but there are question marks about the ongoing buying. paul: we have seen the capex for a lot of these big tech companies for ai -- what is the return of that? that is the question. caroline: we will date into it, and we will also dig into the so-called trump trade. coming up, president-elect trump's tariffs, how that will affect the retail industry. big day with black friday, bloomberg reporters are on the ground. this is bloomberg. ♪

paul: i am paul sweeney in new york city with caroline hyde, a special edition of "bloomberg

markets" on television and radio. unilever is working to fine-tune its business strategy amid geopolitical turmoil. the ceo tells francine lacqua about the committee's decision to pull out of russia and how it plans to navigate possible u.s. tariffs. take a listen. >> it was a very difficult decision to make. i found out in my last one and a half year, it was the most difficult decision to make. but i did make it quite soon in the sense that i wanted optionality for us to exit that market, which was a tedious process. it took more than 12 to 14 months to come to that point we worry -- where we were able to exit. at some point in september, i felt i had the optionality on the table. again, it was difficult, but i made the decision to go, not because of the war going on right now but because i felt

that the control on our business was coming down. i feel that, ultimately, if you are a global company, unique control of your operations we need to be able to review results and get the cash out of the country ultimately, and we need to make sure we live up to potentially international sanctions we need to be able to control our brands and where our brands struggle. that was something that i felt was not enough anymore. and i did not see a window into the near future where we would regain that control. that drove the decision to exit. francine: the way ben & jerry's was set up was to have an independent board. will that still be the case going forward given a lot of the questions you were telling me about? >> ben & jerry's has an independent board, and independent boards that look after the social mission of ben & jerry's only, so it is not a

board that looks at the business side of ben & jerry's, because that is what we do. it looks after the social mission. that was in the merger agreement, and we absolutely respect that merger agreement. therefore, the new ice cream company will respect that merger agreement. caroline: always necessary to talk ice cream on black friday. we will be making the most of the black friday bargains, potentially. andrea fell said -- andrea felsted talks about the prospect of what tariffs mean on the horizon. maybe you and me are hanging around to make the most of some of these black friday deals. paul: i am more of a point-and-click kind of person. caroline: a lot of pointing and clicking going on today. andrea joins us for more, always my go-to with what the retail

market is like. are people making the most of these deals? they have been going on forever, feels like. andrea: definitely are. we have not got much on black friday yet, bit on thanksgiving, but all my numbers seem to be up. it does seem as if consumers are making the most of those sometimes quite generous deals. paul: according to adobe analytics, consumers spend a record $6.1 million online on thanksgiving, up 8.8% year-over-year. that seems pretty solid to me. caroline: are they not speaking to their family? what is going on? paul: i know, what are they doing at the table, clicking? expectations going into this holiday shopping period, are we expecting a growth in sales? andrea: the overall holiday is sort of expected to be low single-digit growth, which is the lowest for several years.

but i think black friday will be pretty big. retailers have been more restrained on discounting this year though. consumers know that. consumers are also looking for bargains. we had target say last week that they are not only being choosy, they are being resourceful and waiting on the deals. so you have those two factors coming together to make it quite a big occasion. caroline: we have had a bad set of numbers recently out of retail and u.s. retail consumption in the last month or so, which is surprising even that there was the question marks surrounding the election. so what are we likely to see consumers be purchasing? what kind of purchases? are they thinking about potentially china-based goods and getting ahead of any tariffs? andrea: on electronics, they are buying, which is obviously one of the sectors that will be hit.

some furniture. i think they have clearly got it on their minds, looking at the categories being bought at the moment. paul: we're going to have dana telsey from the telsey advisory group coming up, one of my favorite wall street analysts covering retail. she was on earlier this week in, and she said the go-to apparel thing is the birkenstock closed toe clog thing. caroline: i remember them. paul: you remember them? is there anything kind of driving sales this year, andrea? anything hot or people just searching for value? andrea: i think there is a lot of value, definitely looking for value, making those dollars stretch further, definitely that will be the case. caroline: about luxury versus --

well, more affordable? we are about to be going out to macy's and have been hearing from the blooming bill -- bloomingdale ceo. there is a bifurcated market where the people who are able to go and buy manatt birkenstock, but i perking bag -- by not birkenstock, but i berkin bag, are spending, others looking for deals. andrea: luxury buyers are continuing to spend. there is the comfortable but not super wealthy -- caroline: so not the full trenchcoat? andrea: buying the gucci bag. there consumers heard by inflation, by higher interest rates. they have also missed the stimulus payments they got a few years ago which went into luxury goods. whereas, the real top end

consumer has kept spending. paul: andrea, thanks so much for joining us, a bloomberg opinion columnists. some of this data from adobe analytics, what is hot and moving here? for thanksgiving shopping yesterday online, shoppers saw great deals yesterday for toys, discounts peaking at 27% off listed prices, electronics with another 26 percent discount, apparel and appliances 19%. i guess that is run-of-the-mill? i am told that it's kind of baked into estimates of the retailers were going to need to be promotional, and they all kind of knew that. alix steel, for example, she will say unabashedly she only buys deep discounts. t.j. maxx, she will walk in unannounced looking for the stuff that may be on sale in her

size. caroline: she is a forager. i am a renter, so not even thinking about the clothing, but i am a proud holder of two small people, so the toys is all about it. they brand that has managed to be resolute, interesting the crossover effect with ip into movies, and we will speak about that more. apparently, gaming is where it is, xbox and others all top sellers. paul: absolutely. buy now pay later, 400 $30 million online spent, up 10% over the year -- $430 million online spent. is that like layaway? you have to pay it eventually. caroline: one company is looking at next year to ipo, and it is a big by now pay later company teaming up with others.

spend at the moment, pay for a slightly later, in a way they can on board perhaps people who have otherwise been dependent on credit cards. paul: more in about four and a half minutes. s&p futures up 11 points, dow up 99. just short of 45,000. nasdaq at 46 points. all about .2% higher. that is ok the friday after thanksgiving. 10-year pulling in about 6, 7 basis points. in honor of alix steel, we will call out some oil. wti crude oil just above $69 a barrel. i filled up the vehicle down on the jersey shore at $2.75, pretty solid. more coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪

paul: caroline hyde and paul sweeney, live in our bloomberg radio studio in midtown manhattan, simulcasting on bloomberg radio and television. futures -- if you are looking for a slight open, going to be a nice and quiet friday. [bellringing] opening bell, off and running. going to be a quiet friday, markets closing early here, closing at 1:00 p.m. the wall street time here at weird tear -- we are here until noon. s&p opens up about seven points,

dow up about .2%. nasdaq up about .1%, up at 26 points. bond market, they are trading the bonds, 10-year treasury 4.19%. i'm still not refinancing my mortgage, sitting at 6% i want jay powell to work a little harder there. alix steel sitting at 2.25% mortgage is never leaving. carolyn pipe never moving -- caroline: never moving. before bitcoin, it is up 97,200 per token. isabel joins us in the studio. what are you looking for in the markets on this friday. isabel: looking at a company that is reacting to new rules that the biden administration is weighing curbs on sales of semi

conductor equipment and memory chips to china, which will continue to escalate the u.s. crackdown on beijing's tech ambitions. but it is short of certain measures that were considered. potentially will be unveiled as soon as next week. it is kind of watered down, but it is very interesting. i feel like i read a headline almost every week about this tech crackdown and the tit-for-tat between u.s. and china. caroline: there have been headlines, and it has lost accountant set to rehire, finally got bdo in usa to go forward. but it needs to file that 10k to stay in the nasdaq. paul: who is its accountant? it was the big gate, big six, now down to the big four. isabelle: it only has one s&p 500 u.s. company. going global --

caroline: going global, we were looking at meta talking through some of the regulatory trials and tribulations from australia. people are not that worried, but it is precedent-setting what australia is doing. isabelle: definitely. people say it is interesting to see governments trying to get into this discourse. we all know it is dangerous, even for adults. i have to stop myself. i am like you have been on instagram for no reason for 30 minutes, you have to stop. it is even more detrimental for kids with their brain still developing. it is popular, but in australia they are preventing people 16 and under on it. in theory, it is great. my brother does not allow his kids to really look at it. caroline: but does he let them look at youtube? it is not part of this. isabelle: for youtube, in australia, it has to be education related. the social company say it is

unlawful and not feasible. the law will penalize the companies but not the kids and the parents who circumvent the policy. you cannot even send official documents like passports, so how do you check? paul: i was with a group of kids recently, and they were saying i only have x-number of minutes left. so parents can install software that limits the amount of time spent. caroline: i encourage that. isabelle: there is a time limit. paul: seems like a waste of money, i will give you x-number of minutes per day. i should do it for myself what about crypto? isabelle: cryptocurrencies still below 100,000. but it is moving further and further away. we have analysts saying that coming into this week, last week, bitcoin was oversold, so this pullback is natural your it feels like that is what they always say. it is still a phenomenal rally, at 97,000. yes, not 100,000, chew which

really has no significance except psychological, maybe technical. but the really now, some say it is similar to the craze in 2021 and bitcoin was really this big massive -- paul: mike bellowed of bloomberg intelligence gave me this call on crypto six or seven years ago -- mike malone gave me this call , ever-growing use cases. if you think it is a commodity, the price has to go higher. that is my call. isabelle: and now there are very few that people can own, and we have governments like the u.s. saying they will have a stockpile. that is the whole thing, from decentralized, it is now centralized. paul: exactly. isabelle lee, thank you for joining us. let's check with ben gutteridge, invesco asset management investment and portfolio

manager. i will ask your 2025 note. i know you are writing it as we speak. how are you guys at invesco thinking about investment opportunities in the new year? >> i might have that rent once you get out the full job title. we are optimistic about 2025, as all investors should be, brace for volatility. with some political outcomes, it could be a little disruptive to global growth. but the core features look pretty resilient, certainly from the u.s., and that is coupled with fading inflationary pressure. of course, most were like inflation to moderate at a keener pace, but it is still moderating. we think inflation could continue to moderate, and that would see policy getting easier. i think the pace at which rates are cut, there is a keen debate

there, but it is still an easier path for policy. resilient growth, inflation, policy, setting us up quite well for 2025. paul: now you guys are all over the world doing everything. ben, do you prefer u.s. markets versus europe? the value in europe is so compelling, but i know it has been that way for a while. how do you think about geographic opportunities? >> we can see that valuations make one uncomfortable leaning towards the u.s. relative to the rest of the european markets. however, it is still the way in which we would position portfolios. we are furthering u.s. equities, given the earnings power that some of the mega caps retain, very difficult to see that being heavily disrupted and scope for more of a catch up trade beneath

that surface given the resilience of growth and the growth impulse we would expect to come through in 2025. yes, europe has value, well worth having some in portfolios. but not our preferred market at the moment given the absence of confidence from the consumer there. the employment market not moving in the right direction either. sorry. caroline: no sorry needed. i am feeling sorry for those who have to report and navigate french politics with marine le pen giving the french prime minister an ultimatum, to monday until she considers toppling that government. is it alright geopolitics in europe or is there any area that you think, hmm, seeing certain countries outperform? >> the politics, as was talked

about, is a complicated setting in europe, and in the immediacy, some challenges do not do much for short-term confidence either. there can be positive outcomes, but it is a tricky one to navigate. yes, there is certainly value within european forces. the u.k. market stacks up relatively well. valuation looks interesting. i think that will be a charge levied at u.k. markets forever. it has not played out very nicely. management is pretty active on buybacks, dividend yields really compelling, and u.k. growth not going to be too bad relative to some downbeat expectations. not just run quality of u.k. equities. but if you have a decent champion to u.s. equities, u.k. seems a reasonable hedge against that. you think about a repeat of 2022

when inflation comes charging and roaring back with commodity prices, oil prices much higher, the u.k. can offer something of a hedge against that. so it is a nice diversifier. caroline: going to the inflationary output, the u.k. had a scare with inflation and cpi coming in ahead of expected the other week. we have europe still on the we are going to be cutting rates past, feels like. walk us through it, are you generally seeing a commitment that the fed will keep on cutting despite inflationary pressures being at least warned of because of tariffs? >> conviction is moderating. you are right to touch on tariffs. on the one hand, of course, there is a segment of your consumption basket up, which is inflationary, but that quickly eats into your spending power for other areas of discretionary spend.

given that the federal reserve have inflationary belts to be transitory, they may not want to act in that manner in the future , even though we might believe it should look through any sparks of inflation to settle it done with rising interest rates. certainly, alert to that risk. on balance, we see wage inflation continue to moderate. such a big part of the inflation calculation is shelter, and we are seeing rental agreements being renegotiated currently that suggest that part of the inflation calculation can continue to moderate quite handsomely paired we see that from the autos market, as well. so there are disruptions and threats to the inflation challenge, a great question because we say moderating is narrowing, but we still think it is good news, better news for monetary policy.

paul: for those of us that missed the magnificent seven trade, our financials a place to look at here in this new world? >> i wouldn't say the magnificent seven trade has been mixed. a good chunk of it, i suspect, but still more to go. financials, to your point, do look interesting. i think the deregulation story is tricky to navigate. to play the margin could be helpful. but steepened yield curves are nice for interest margins for banks. with resilient growth outlook, that is better for loan income. with the u.s. markets in pretty good shape, there might be some of that investment banking income, again, as a nice fill in to earnings. financials, the u.s. could be a catch up to the magnificent seven. caroline: i take the bait,

magnificent seven still going to run -- which names? nvidia, it was selling pretty hard since earnings, even though the earnings were pretty phenomenal, but they did not live up to some expectations. >> well, look, in and around earnings season, it is tricky with technical factors and shorter-term actors trading these names. it seems nvidia has to beat the very highest on the screen. but the earnings power still looks uninterrupted at the other of this magnificent seven, so it has continued to consume -- the blackwell chip, no let up from this ai infrastructure rollout from the other magnificent cohort, so many businesses are using this to great effect. it is not just about filling out

forms quicker anymore, it is about checking efficiency gains in business. so we are cautious to suggest that somehow magnificent seven will be uninterrupted by dramatic earnings disappointments, but that does not stack up. there other technical factors like a yen carry trade, if the yen were to move a little further. but i do not think it is an earnings issue for the magnificent seven. caroline: and some positive inflationary numbers. ben gutteridge, so good to have you, from invesco asset management solutions. it is black friday, and we're looking at thanksgiving we can sell projections we will take you live to the shoppers. this is bloomberg. ♪

paul: i am paul sweeney in new york city, with caroline hyde, a special edition of "bloomberg

markets" on bloomberg television. looking at these markets, a little bit of green. s&p up about 16 points, .2%. nasdaq up 57 points, .3%. i am looking at the russell, doing a little better, small-cap era 10-year yields, 4.19%. to alix steel and those folks who follow commodity, wti crude oil still below seven dollars a share. a little bit of green. caroline: looking at the sectors, consumer discretionary about .4%. looking into what is happening this holiday season, what consumers are doing. bloomingdale's is going full "wicked." i have been hit around the head with that marketing. i am that demographic. it is all about that musical. romaine bostick and scarlet fu spoke with the bloomingdale's ceo about the reason behind the decision to go all "wicked."

take a listen from earlier in the month. >> bloomingdale's in asia and europe are flagship focused, so that is a big difference. i think the flagships have a bright future in the next 10, 20 years. not a problem at all. i think the problem is managing such a large footprint, and that will be a challenge sometimes. we have a chance to be in prime locations in prime all scum a strong, and we have budget footprints -- in prime locations and prime malls, we have big footprint speed we have to reinvent ourselves for customers and brands. we have to be relevant for brynn nurse -- brand partners. scarlet: are there too many stores in the u.s. overall? >> looking at the market data, overall market is slightly growing.

the introduction of online is going up. so the average productivity of the square feet in the u.s. is slightly decreasing. yes, there will be probably some losers, and that is what you have to change yourself and reinvent and remain relevant. romaine: i have to ask you, when you look at other retailers, not necessarily a direct competitor, when you walk into the stores or shop at the website, who do you say, wow, they got it right? >> first, i think bloomingdale's is doing that right. sorry to say, but it will not be my only answer, but i was surprised by the level of engagement with the customer. the relationship we are building with the customer and partners is good, and i think we can do better in the future. we get inspiration from competitors but also other models, whether it is in terms of service, brand mix, events,

there are a lot of inspirations in and beyond retail. i do not want to give names, but i have a lot of sources of inspiration in the u.s. and the world. i think we should not be too domestic focus because we could miss good trance elsewhere in the world. romaine: and is it just retail overall, do you think it will be palatable to the u.s. audience? >> absolutely, we have to bring the best of both worlds. we have to bring something different for the customer. the customer is ready whenever something different, inspiring. we can get this from some of the countries and other areas of the world. paul: that is the bloomingdale's ceo alongside romaine bostick and scarlet fu, talking about global growth opportunities for bloomingdale's. let's keep up the discussion on

the state of retail on this black friday with vonnie quinn. she's right outside macy's in new york city, around 34th street, 6th avenue. i will be walking by there this afternoon if they let me out of this booth. vonnie, talk about the buzz at macy's flagship store. vonnie: you can see it is getting a lot busier now. macy's has been open almost four hours, and it has been freezing, 39 degrees, and it was 10 degrees lower at 6:00 a.m., and there was a trickle of shoppers. i was just inside for a little research, and it is getting to the point where it is a little uncomfortable. plenty of shoppers inside, and you might need a cattle prod soon to get those deals. that tallies with what we are expecting, expecting a record black friday, which is interesting because of the death knell's that have been sounded for black friday.

not the case this year, the national retail federation says 131.7 million people across the u.s. will shop on black friday, and two thirds will shop in store, which is a fascinating statistic that speaks to the nature of the consumer and perhaps the consumer wants to feel those goods again. caroline: feel, touch, expanse, rub shoulders with too many other shoppers. of course, bloomingdale's is part of macy's holidays, higher end. what does macy's expect for its own flagships? they have such an extensive offering within the store for many cross points. will it be the price-sensitive shoppers? i understand if you were the early birds, you got, what, a $10 discount? vonnie: $10 gift cards on top of the discounts already in the store, so a little incentive, not a huge incentive. those big doorbuster deals from black friday's past were not really there. i could see that these discounts

of the last couple of days have already been there. macy's broad goal is to return to sustainable growth from 2025, and it seems to be concentrating on this brands doing extraordinary wealth for it. carl lagerfeld, french connection brands, and you have seen that in the stores. the first 50 stores is what macy's have been concentrating on, and analysts are happy about the progress macy's have been making on those 50. that will be done more broadly, as well as closing some less performing stores across the country. so the broad goal is going well. if you walk in today, you will see all sorts of cosmetics even on discount, not something you have seen much in years past. and holiday gift sets and things that might catch the eye, an extra thing for the basket. during earnings season, there

was a wide disparity in the brands that did well and the brands that did not do well. obviously, target was one that did not do well. macy's, we will see more before december 11 because her full earnings has been delayed. kohl's not doing particularly well. walmart blew away everybody, drawing in people at every price point and every demographic and every income level. paul: i may wander into the macy's store today. am i going to get any deals? vonnie: everything looks to be 40% off, 50% off. you have to be discerning yourself and maybe get the help from jet gpt or another ai to see if something is really 40% off or if it is the full retail price, see what is going on. there are things like price matching. if you get a better price on cyber monday, they will honor that.

but discounts are pretty good. we know from adobe analytics, from thanksgiving sales, the best discounts were on consumer electronics. talking about 27.2% off listed price there, and toys with a huge discount, looking at 26.5%. going into this, we were expecting things like furniture to be about 19% off retail and appliances. there is the potential for tariffs to come into some of these goods as soon as next year , so that is something consumers need to thinking about, as well. caroline: slightly more expensive chinese goods to think about. vonnie quinn battling the elements and the people outside macy's flagship store. we appreciate it. meanwhile, much more about retail. we have dana telsey of telsey advisory group coming on for the

perfect read on whether we are trying to get ahead of any increased prices coming from future tariffs. paul: dana telsey, what i love is her financial models are to die for. she has all the numbers down pat. then you ask her about fashion, and she will riff on fashion for about 10 minutes. she has the whole package. depending on how you approach the retail sector, she has you covered. caroline: i am going back to 1990's nostalgia, because vonnie quinn said french connection, and that was me back then, i was wearing truly almost naughty. 1990's is back with aplomb and doing well for macy's. paul: you always have to figure out where the fashion is and where the consumers are, and that is part of the challenge of being a retailer. caroline: so fashion forward. paul: exactly. me with this uniform.

never go wrong. more coming up. s&p 500 up 18 points. this is bloomberg. ♪

paul: we are broadcasting from

the bloomberg radios studios in beautiful midtown manhattan, simulcast on bloomberg radio and television. it is black friday. we are bringing you the retail angle. a big, big day for the retailers. vonnie quinn is in the field in midtown in manhattan. we have others reporting. trading today for half a day. the dow is up. looking at the bond market, the 10 year treasury coming it seven basis points, just below 4.2% on your 10 year. gold a little higher. it is up .5%. wti just below $70 per barrel. a quiet trading day this day after thanksgiving.

back in the trading days i can make a lot of money trading on a friday after thanksgiving. you can run some stocks now and again and make a pretty good day. caroline: and not here for the coffee machine. paul: you could make a lot of money on that. caroline: instead you are just here for good conversation. isabel lee joins us to give us a sense of what is happening. what are you looking at. >> apply therapeutics is down after the company's new drug application for a treatment was rejected by the fda. they said it had deficiencies in clinical application. they say it was disappointed and downgraded and cut the price target from 12 to four. also said it was unexpected in that is why the shock was so big

. baird cutting the price target from 14 to five. a lot of shock and not good news for the company. caroline: a relatively small biotech company. paul: when you trade bio stec talks i feel like it is a binary situation. if i'm right it triples in if i'm wrong it goes to zero. i don't know how you trade that but that is with the hedge funds . it seems impossible. caroline: the joy of being diversified, one hopes. isabel: for the so-called normal person it is hard to understand the treatments and studies. you think is it permanent, is it short-term, can you overcome it. paul: phd's and mds, instead of going in and hoping the world he becomes a stock jockey. caroline: that is helping the world. financial literacy is important to the broader world.

we are still dominated by the mag seven and the downside, microsoft and google. i want to go to four on the upside in terms of the s&p 500. it is meta. you would think that it would hit to the lower side after australia banned social media for 16 and younger. but there was the idea that once mark zuckerberg -- had a visit with the picture president. maybe that is alleviating some of the worry. isabel: a lot of the tech giants who made some comments during the last election stay quiet and maybe they figure that was a boost. it is australia and not the u.s. and this is not undermining

australia in any way but u.s. is the biggest market ever and we don't know the feasibility of the law that bans children under 16 from using social media. tech companies will be interested to see how this will be implemented. and if you circumvent the law and if you are a child or the parent of a child there is no penalty but if there is a company, that is a $32 million. i think that is steep. caroline: that is just in the statement there. paul: i will take you back to microsoft 25 years ago. you just write the checks and go on and the stock keeps moving higher and that is what is happening here. and that is how investors are looking at it. take you for joining us on the latest in what is moving on the markets. black friday is important. do you know why it is called black friday? because you will run in the red

all year and then black friday comes in a big sales year and you go into the black. dana telsey knows that more than anybody. the go to voice for all things retail for i'm going to say 25 years and leave it there. it has been a while for folks trying to figure out how they spend their money, where they go, did they spend it on goods, experiences. give us the lay of the land in retailer. dana: it is the super bowl of retail always how black friday. retailers prepare for months to get it right. so what is happening right now with retail? the consumer is resilient. it is about product newness. look at what you have with companies like berkus stop, both the others. it is about -- birkenstock and

others. given with a art scene, continued pressure of elevated prices, inflation might not be going up but it couldn't come down fast enough for them and that is why you so walmart talked about the fact that most of the share gains came from higher income consumer and given that 60% to 65% come from grocery, looking at target, more coming from discretionary, that was a headwind. and what is happening with giftgiving, who would have thought that of placers getting in the throes of gift giving and gaining more traffic. what every retail is doing this holiday season, increasing the marketing. you social consumer who is enticed whether by the phone, emails or in-store. and what we saw this morning so far, i was already at macy's, as the morning's come on, you see traffic increase and that social

engagement with the physical store is helping. else of a compressed holiday season. don't discount that. thanksgiving on the 28th. last year was on the 23rd. the poll forward of promotions led to more conversion early in the season but consumers are still going to spend. a lot of them are procrastinators. paul: am i going to get deals? dana: average promotion these days seems around 30%. when i did walk-throughs yesterday, i found a store that was open. it just opened tuesday, a brand-new score. but overall 30% is the discounts. some may be higher, some may be lower. luxury goods is having a tough time but you never see discounts at luxury goods. what you need to see is the louis vuitton trunks. i think it will be 83% to 3.5% increase.

increased marketing is planned. the promotional levels are planned. i think there is more stability in the margins in more uncertainty what the top line looks at. caroline: talking about the prices going up with tariffs are the consumers worrying? sonali: the retailers --dana: the retailers are considering it highly. look at abercrombie & fitch talking about less than 10% of goods coming from china. look at we -- what you had with gap, talking the same thing. a lot of footwear companies working to diversify fast because if anything, look at the study were nearly 80% of consumers spending dollars would be impacted by tariffs requiring a double digit price increase. consumers don't want that. caroline: they definitely don't. do they want to be shopping via inferences or do they want to be shopping via their own viewpoint

and long-term love affair with certain companies and brands? dana: influencers help the consumer overall see what is working for them. the brands also advocate for influencers because they want that awareness given to expand their demographics. influencers today, it can be for millennials and it could be for baby boomers. consumers are watching pictures and pictures are on instagram and social media and that will be one of the bigger themes through 2025. paul: e-commerce versus bricks and mortar. another pandemic brought about e-commerce forward. dana: it has to be both. you are seeing the store fills a broader function. they do online pickup and shipped from store and back to the word again, social. they create social engagement and overall you will continue to see big gains in the holiday season from online, should be

high single digits this year but you need the bricks and mortar to drive awareness and you are seeing more retailers investing in stores and more stores being open in terms of retailers but of the smaller size than in the past. go physical is what i am about. caroline: even on thanksgiving, go and find a store that is open. i feel at the black friday deals have been thrown at me for a week or longer. we were reporting on 11 11 and what the china discount would be. do you think there are things there is not a discount on? dana: this year it just started earlier. the minute amazon had the prime day and walmart circle day. then it was just on the season. everyone wanted to catch the consumer spending dollar. then it is back to school and

holidays that are the two keys spending periods. paul: is anything to go to? dana: you will look at the birkenstock closed toe shoe as opposed to the sandal? dana: yes. but you have to have both. look at the brooklyn bank at coach. it has been super popular. and even some of the private companies of intimate apparel, you have to watch what they are doing. caroline: it is always great to have you. thank you for making the pit stop. she has to go to bloomingdale's next door. dana: i'm going there next. caroline: coming up next, it has been not just a banner year on the promotional pond but if you have been along the s&p 500. one of the most high profile

corners of wall street has had the worst years since the pandemic. we will discuss that's coming up next. paul: we had the s&p 500 trading higher, it is a quiet day with quiet volumes but the s&p is up .5%. -- .05%. the nasdaq, going on 20,000 watch soon. caroline: people are just chilling back and relaxing. paul: i don't know what tom keene does on a day off. caroline: he has a martini. paul: no problem with that pure 10-year treasury yield down six basis points, pulling back from the 4.5% level we saw earlier. we have a fed cutting rates and

somebody forgot to tell the bond market. people have been shorting bounds in pushing rates up. wti crude oil just under $70 a barrel. the cost to get out of the grass is about $50. gold higher yet again. this was a commodities call five to six years ago, by goal in short everything else. caroline: also said by bitcoin maybe and it is at 98,000. paul: you can go to the bloomberg terminal and look at the commodity stuff. more coming up. this is bloomberg radio and to beside will can. ♪ ♪

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studio. a special edition on this black friday. renowned economist's warning that donald trump's agenda of tax cuts and tariffs is shaping up as a double edge sword for the united states. we were told more about the potential impact of the trump plans on inflation and growth areas -- growth. >> the economic policies of troth, keeping tax rates low to generate the economy. unfortunately the policies will have an implication of higher inflation and lower economic growth. the first thing an ounce was tariffs against mexico, canada, and china, and that is just the beginning. he might say we might have a 20% tariff on trade partners up to 60% to china.

you must have a mass deportation of people. the increase migration has increased the labor supply and growth and mass deportation is a stagflationary. he not only wants to take the tax cuts and make them permanent, he wants low taxes on overtime, social security and so on and so on. it could add to the deficit by $8 trillion. it made weaken the dollar and that will be inflationary. it make interfere with the actions of the fed. getting out of the paris accord is going to make climate change worse and have an effect on prices. >> there are now bitcoin etf's over $100 billion, clearly big hit. there is talk that there could be a strategic reserve. you have gold in the portfolio.

is there anything that can move you to add bitcoin to your etf to help accomplish some of these goals? >> bitcoin is highly volatile. it can go up by 10% one date and down 10% or 15% on another day. if you want value you would not put bitcoin in the portfolio. the kind of assets we are thinking about our assets that do well when you have lower growth and higher inflation, whether there are treasuries, gold as a hedge against inflation, geopolitics, financial crisis, some exposure to commodities that will do well in a world of inflation and inviting me sustainable rates. it is a diversified portfolio of assets that have done well in this. i am skeptical about cryptocurrency because they are not currencies.

they are not stable for value. if you want to stay away from those types of assets. caroline: we want to delve in a little bit to the markets for the s&p 500 one of the best years in history. shrugging off geopolitical risk after central bank concerns and inflation running warmer than had been anticipated. we have to try to analyze what has been for the moneymakers, the banks in particular. it is not been pleasant. they have not been having a great year for traders there. by tighter margins, challenging macro economic backgrounds. going to a great story of how difficult it has been to trade macro of late because there have been shock moves that against everyone.

>> it really is and paul and i have spoken so much about especially going into not even this past year but 2023 after we saw the low of the s&p and october 2022, still a lot of gloom and doom. a lot of it coming out of covid and with disruptions and what it did because people were trading off of playbooks that would have worked prior to the pandemic but when you have a once in a century pandemic and it upends business activity, it made it harder to call. there were certain strategies you would use or if this happened you would buy this or there would be 100% track records for certain thresholds where you wouldn't see the s&p 500 hit another low but a lot of things he had to fill the playbook out and i'm sure with a lot of things you saw it, especially if he thought about the housing crisis, things were different when you think about pre-covid versus now. on the macro side, if you are

looking at the surprise index for the u.s., outpacing expectations. even if you're looking at fourth-quarter gdp growth for the atlanta fed to gdp now, that is above 2.5 percent. continuing to see a strong consumer. but also on the corporate sides of the stock market, that has continued to power things higher . gina martin talks about that. paul: some of the biggest profit generators were from the macro traders. >> they were. paul: and headphones particularly, if you are macro trader that meant you were smarter than everyone else. i think about everything and those of the guys and gals who made huge months of money. the performance has not been there. >> they haven't been. paul: the flows out of those.

>> the s&p is on pace for over a 20% gain. that is the first time you would see the gains of that magnitude since the late 1990's and we saw it happen twice during the dot-com bubble and even into next year. every year when the calendar turns it seems like there wants to be gloom and doom. a lot of people are pointing at valuations, the s&p 500 trading at 22 times forward earnings. if you look at the average over the last decade, it is around 18. if you strip out the magnuson set -- the magnificent seven, looking over the last 10 years or if you want to look at sentiment, that stuff can state frothy and go on for weeks and months and potentially year so they tend to not like to use it first trading -- use it for trading. caroline: putting together a lot of the data for rate traders, has a little more optimism but

rates are painful in large part because of electrification. things look very different 20 years ago because there were fewer marketmakers and most people were still picking up the phone. >> it is a different dynamic of how interconnected the global economy is as well as technology when you are trying to make the trades. looking at the forex market versus rates markets, especially the conundrum of seen yields rise, rather was at on a strengthening economy or telling you something about federal reserve policy, making it more of a conundrum coming out of covid. what is the smart trade for 2025? is there such a thing or am i just buying nvidia? the third quarter did not do as well as i had thought it had but the best app in the s&p 500 not just over the last year but the last two years, something people are watching, if you look at the etf that tracks semiconductor

companies and chips, smh is important because trading around to 40 but it is worth a broad measure so you want to look at that -- on 240, but it is a broad measure so you want to look at it. so the big weighting that chipmakers have. it is beyond just some of the big ai type players. when i'm speaking with portfolio managers, that is a space. software companies is one that is piling money into it. paul: texas, a 5.5 point. >> i couldn't get a ticket. the average purchase price was over 1000. paul: texas at texas a&m.

>> i will watch it here. paul: it is not too late to do your christmas shopping you get your christmas tree. caroline: what you mean it is not too late, it is not even thanksgiving. paul: we will talk about -- we will talk to chris butler. people are going to rebel if we get the tariffs the way at some folks are talking about because it is affecting everything that people buy. we will talk christmas trees coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> good friday morning from new york city. i am paul sweeney with caroline hyde. this is a special edition of bloomberg markets. we are trading higher in this

abbreviated trade discussion. u.s. stock markets closed at 1:00 p.m.. s&p 500 up about 20 six points. the nasdaq of 0.6%. we will take that on a quiet day. let's look at 10 year u.s. treasury, 4.21%. we were just at 4.5% a couple. wti crude oil a little higher up about 1%. gold is higher yet again. bitcoin up 3.3%. 98,000 200. that gets your attention. let's look under the hood in these markets. his ability joins us in the studio. what are you looking at?

>> bitcoin also edging higher. so far this year the coin has edged 120% higher. it is really spectacular. you can definitely say -- you can definitely say this is a trump trade at work. if you put your money at the start of the year, it grew 123%. >> mar a holdings. >> the rebrand happened and they moved swiftly on. it is synonymous with the fact that this is a bitcoin trade, a crypto mining trade and we want to make the ust crypto mining capital of the planet according to president-elect trump. for the month of november it has been easy bitcoin proxy even though there are a load of of the play bitcoin now. i am interested in what else won out. >> other than microstrategy, it is paid comp software. they had a good earnings report. we have them raising their price target. we also have warner brothers. like other media companies, it

reported profits. >> a bit of might be happening. we might assume that under the next administration that m&a and media with looser risers --looser regulations. paul: if we get a republican administration, m&a will be a big part of the story. he was talking of his book. it needs help somewhere. >> i have had analysts tell me that maybe people are overoptimistic. we have one month to go until january. a lot of the things that trump says might not come true. you have to be cautiously optimistic. it is up 30%. caroline: the losers, supermicro, down 33%. the company has gone through a lot.

the changing of the auditors. the compliance thing with nasdaq. they are struggling to stay listed. we will see whether they will. they are still in talks with nasdaq to consider whether they remain listed or not. there is that little saving grace. it is down 33 percent. also moderna is down 22%. i don't want to pin this on robert f cavities -- robert f these nomination but the stock did sink when it was announced that he would be a nominee. paul: it is a tough sector in general to play because of the regulatory overhang. people complain a lot around the thanksgiving table around drug prices. i think they delivered the vaccine so quickly and that was a saving grace for all of us. i am taking a time out from bashing big pharma companies. caroline: r&d is a different way

of thinking about drug discovery in the u.s. and europe. paul: a huge spending on r&d and if you cannot do it in-house, you go out and buy somebody. the next thing i want to look at is a healthcare m&a banker. isabel, thank you so much for joining us, isabel lee giving us the lowdown on the losers and winners today. christmas trees. caroline: had you got yours? paul: i got my christmas tree on or about my birthday but i have gone both ways over the years. my kids have allergies. i am kind of indifferent. caroline: we have one real one and one fake one for the downstairs vibes. paul: that is how you do it. chris butler joins us, national

tree company ceo joining us from cranford, new jersey. talk to us about christmas decorations. what are people doing these days? what is different today versus 15 years ago? it seems people are going nuts for christmas decorations. chris: they are going nuts. switching between the artificial and the real, we are big fans of the real as well as artificial. 80% of u.s. consumers buy artificial trees. the real is definitely in the minority but we are big fans of trees in general. it is the pre-lit. the trees are pre-lit. the materials are a lot better. there is a lot of functionality you can get today. that is what we are seeking. there are a lot of extra

wreaths and garlands. with the extra generation, people are showing their friends. they have a lot of trees and a lot of different routes. maybe the tree -- maybe the kids have a tree now. we are seeing a lot of incremental decorating with a lot of different items. in terms of getting back to the smell, the main reason people buy a real tree is for that real christmas smell. we bought a company a few years ago and they are scented ornaments that smell like christmas. if you hang a scented ornament on an artificial tree, you get the real tree smell as well. caroline: i am looking at your website. first thing, holiday magic

begins. enter to win a gift card. blackout deals, 30% off. how much do you think about discounting? how much fear is there of where you get your supplies from, the cost michael up in the future? the cost -- the cost might go up in the future? chris: that is a good question. every retailer is really discounting to make sure we can capture the sales we might have missed otherwise. in terms of the tariffs, we have been on a diversification trend over the last few years anyway trying to diversify ourselves out of just one source of manufacturing which would be china. if the tariffs go through, whose nose -- who knows what they will be. from our standpoint, it is impeccable. we try to diversify our manufacturing base between now

and 2026. the promotional things we are doing right now are the tune of capture the sales for the season. if you are a consumer looking for a tree and you are thinking of buying a tree, now is a great time to buy because prices michael up in the next year or so -- prices might go up in the next year or so. we are diversifying. we have been on this diversification journey for a few years now. probably by the end of 2026 we could be completely out of china which is a significant change. paul: anything that is particularly the hot seller this year? chris: my wife loves the sparkling trees, the snowy trees. many consumers love those

things. what we see year after year is the green triangle, the solid materials, great lights, multifunctional lights. it is not a trend driven industry. this year disco is back. kind of the retro feels. who does not love a bit of disco with their christmas tree? we have seen sales on disco-themed items. people still prefer that traditional green tree with either the white lights, clear lights, multicolor or the dual function -- dual-color functionality. caroline: i think one of ours is multicolored. i am the boring person. i like a white light with only red and gold vibes. we collect christmas decorations from every city.

you have to remind yourself where you got some of these random items. i am really interested in not just about the idea of what color lights or whether you are doing sparkly or disco. you must be talking to people in your industry who are doing the real tree situation. how much will you have helped his year by the fact that we have heard in the northeast we have terrible lack of water? we have had droughts and the local christmas tree farms next to me have been struggling. chris: it is a great question. 80% of consumers already buy artificial trees versus 20% buying the real trees. it is a small market already. unfortunately with climate change and weather in general, it is hurting. oregon a few years ago got hit with some fungus issues. it is a tough business to be in. we are here to pick up the pieces when they falter with a

supply chain. paul: is there any originality in your business? do people in the south spend more on decorations per capita than the midwest or is it pretty standard? chris: it is pretty standard. we do see coastal towns going more for christmas by the sea type themes. our sales are driven by population centers. very good sales in the northeast, florida, california. we don't see big regional differences. most of our sales are online. amazon, wayfair, home depot, etc. we really see sales detailed by where people live. paul: chris butler, national tree company ceo. caroline: more is less here. paul: we are more, right?

caroline: you are more in the united states. i love that there is a tree for every room, every person in the family, every animal. in the u.k., we are more dependent on real trees. we are a smaller country and have easier access to them. paul: is there something you do in england that we don't do decoration-wise? caroline: advent calendars. advent is not deemed a religious taking. obviously the king of england and there is more focused on the church of england within the country. actually, the countdown and the 24 day opening of the calendar whether there is candy or an act of kindness, that was something i grew up with. i find that much harder to get here. and crackers. suddenly we are getting them everywhere. my little storehouse has advent calendars. i am thankful. paul: it is a thing here. we do the advent calendar. when i think of london or

england and the little candle in the window, something that is an understated, an understated tree. that is it. not the craziness we have here. people put the stuff out on their yard that is unbelievable. caroline: we still have a giant skeleton crawling out of the ground. people don't seem to be putting away the halloween stuff. paul: very good. we will see how that goes. the day after thanksgiving, you can start doing everything christmas-wise. christmas music on the radio in october. caroline: my dentist was playing it. it was already hell going to the dentist. next up, we are talking social media folks. this is bloomberg.

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paul: i am paul sweeney with caroline hyde in our new york city radio studio.

bloomberg tv and radio, the whole simulcast thing. bloomingdale's is going for an immersive experience with the wicked movie and leaning into what has become a merchandising juggernaut. we went to bloomingdale's and sat down with the ceo for more on this. let's take a look. >> 3, 2, 1 -- [cheering ] >> it is a wicked pairing, legendary musical. >> and an iconic flex ship in the heart of new york city. >> is bringing the experience to the customer, the excitement, the energy. it is not only selling products, but living in the moment, which is important. >> bloomingdale's transforming into the land of oz, diving into the world of "wicked."" >> the retailer is incorporating

the frenzy of the movie into the shopping experience. >> we have to bring back more about the storytelling to the customer. this is all we are working on now and this is a demonstration of what we are talking about. >> bloomingdale's is leading to a more immersive model. >> the national retail federation expects sales to grow at a slower pace than last year due to a more discerning consumer. >> it has a bright future but it has to reinvent itself from the perspective of the customer but also from our brand partners. we have to be there for our brand partners. >> feo olivia braun oversees more than 20 stores with no plans to expand its international presence. however, the retail veteran is relying on global style and global shopping trends to revive the u.s. department store experience.

>> i have a lot of inspiration in the u.s. but also abroad. we should not be too domestically focused because we could miss some good trends happening somewhere in the world. we want to do list, but bigger, more impactful, bolder. >> no better time to go bold than the holiday season. >> we are building memories and the sales of the future by doing that. we have to preserve this moment that is very special for our customers. we love this moment. when you like retail, you love the holiday session -- season because the magic happens in the store. caroline: the ceo of bloomingdale's there. from the land of oz to a different time of oz, australia has just passed a controversial new law banning under 16-year-old using social media. one of the toughest crackdowns we have seen on platforms like facebook and tiktok as governments worldwide try to

grapple with ways to protect children from harmful content. peter joins us now, you head up our team in asia and across the world of technology. is this a seismic precedent? peter: we have seen governments around the real struggle with this question, how much access should miners have to social media and other kinds of technologies. they have struggled with how to implement these concerns and address some of them. what we have seen in australia is one of the most dramatic news -- dramatic moves yet. this is not something where you can get your parents permission and get back on. it is a bank it -- blanket ban. companies are pushing hard against this. meta has objected this. facebook of course. it has been called a fascist step of the company. there is a lot of public support. there is a lot of support within

the government. they are determined to make this stick. caroline: it was widely popular. 77% of adult support the move according to a survey. every cynic would be like of course meta is going to push back and tiktok will push back. they have grounds to book bash because -- to push back this is very hard to impose and navigate. peter: there are difficulties in implementing something like this. companies have 12 months before they have to implement it. the government is putting the burden of implementation onto the companies themselves. there is debate about whether the social media companies should take the lead on this our weather the app store overseen by apple and google should do this instead. this will be squarely on the companies to implement this and to figure out the best way to do this. it is not impossible to do this. companies love to say it is

rushed, it is difficult to implement. governments have been able to do this in the past. the question is how you will implement the technology. time has been successful at implementing guardrails around how teenagers use technology. that is a country where the concerns about privacy are much less than australia and the u.k.. there will be questions about how the implement this. it will be difficult for them to implement this but the government is determined to move ahead with it. paul: that is where i'm coming from as a parent although my kids are grown and out of the house and can do what they want. technologically, how do they do it? is it a piece of software that facebook could put on that figures out your age? peter: there are many different choices. i will begin with one example from norway. they tried to implement this with kids where they tried to set a limit on how young kids could get on but more than 70% of them figured out ways to get around it, the parents and

technology companies. kids are often smarter than we are in terms of implementing these things. when you have seen it done successfully in places like china in particular, you have to register and have an account identified with a particular individual. in china they don't let kids get online after 10:00 at night or before 6:00 a.m. in the morning so you don't have kids using this technology. it is something from a parent standpoint that you probably see is quite useful if you are able to implement it. china, because they have more centralized control over these things, limited how much time kids could spend on things like games and social media. you cannot really use the same kinds of procedures in australia or the united states. paul: yes. in australia, caroline was given the statistics about the support for this. i cannot imagine that working here. it seems like a lot of folks would say wait a minute, the government cannot tell my kids what to do. it is up to me as a parent to

decide. i guess australia is past that. peter: the broader question here is whether this will go beyond australia into places like the united states or europe. certainly in europe france has taken the lead. they feel it is very important to have guardrails around how kids use technology especially social media. we have seen lots of harm done to children through these things. in the states you have individual states that are conservative that have done this. florida has been the most aggressive in terms of looking at parameters around this. there are other states very concerned about how kids are using technology. they see that it is very harmful. people have talked about this as a psychological experiment being done on our kids without our permission and they want parameters around. caroline: i will play devils advocate. sometimes people -- kids fear fairly -- feel very alone and need social media. unicef came out saying

australia's ban would push young people into darker unregulated places online. they are worried about their rights of severing access to information. instead of banning children, we should hold social media companies accountable. to be fair, instagram just imposed safety for 16-year-olds and younger private accounts, messaging restrictions, sleep mode between 10 :00 p.m. and 7:00 a.m. with pandora's box already open, is the onus on the companies to more seriously give the parent a way of helping children use it rather than taking it off the table and lacking access? peter: it is a very good question. is there a way to improve these social media sites and make them valuable instead of banning them outright. australia feels they have waited long enough. if you expect facebook or x to

do better, they will not do it. you have not seen it over the past few years. there have been many attempts with not much progress. the question becomes the ultimatum of you let kids on in hopes that things will improve or do you cut them off and put additional pressure on companies to do a better job of relating the content. the algorithms here are part of the problem because they are not leading kids to the solutions you are talking about. they are leading them to addictive content and we have seen that again and again from technology companies. caroline: peter, it is so great to have your perspective. coming up, more insight on social media trends. this will be interesting. amber venz box, cofounder of ltk, selling things to the consumer. we will marry social media with black friday. paul: perfect time. advertising is such a big part

of the commercial landscape these days. coming up, this is bloomberg. good morning.

paul: i'm paul sweeney in new

york city, alongside caroline hyde. welcome to a special edition of -- the nasdaq doing better come up 0.7%. on the yield space, yields coming in ever so slightly, the 10 year, treating around 0.24%. still below $70 per barrel. it is that whole supply-demand thing out there. definitely concerns about that. gold higher, bitcoin up three .3%. we are keeping an eye on that, because we night -- we like nice

round numbers, like $100,000 for bitcoin. bitcoin trades all the time. you got to stay on top of that. let's talk to isabel lee, looking at the equity markets. what are you looking at russian mark isabel: i am looking at target. it announced its two day cyber monday deal. consumers can expect up to 50% off thousands of their products. target is interesting. last week, it was added back to oppenheimer's top stock list after being removed last week, but the company slashed earnings for another quarter. i was surprised when someone said earlier, vonnie quinn, that people still go to stores to shop, because i order everything online. paul: i am surprised people have come back as much as they have. what i hear is the is the omni experience, the online, the physical, ordering and picking that up here they call the omni channel in retail language. i guess that is future.

caroline: it is. want a crossbar from experience. i am with you, though, i am all about online and renting. paul: when i first saw that five or six years ago, and the people here are bloomberg, what a great concept. caroline: they need to do it for guys. it is not on offer for you gentlemen, unfortunately. unfortunately, its market cap is down a time, because funny enough, they have not made that much profit on it yet. i am told things will be straightening out over there. meanwhile, you're talking some of the biggest points contributors on the day. nvidia adding nine points to the s&p 500. tesla the second-biggest. they have had a phenomenal november weather that is fundamentally driven, whether it is memes and vibes and trump association. isabelle: wedbush is saying

tesla is likely to unlock $1 trillion versus -- worth of ai and autonomous activities be of this comes after the trump administration is aggressively heads down on anything autonomous. to your point, it may be sentimentally driven, but tesla's march to $2 trillion has started. a lot of federal regulatory issues, expect that to be lifted. that will honestly impact musk. caroline: let's bring up dan ives. does he actually have any sell recommendations on any stock? paul: he has been a permeable -- caroline: he has 38 buys, 5 holds, 0 sells. a big, fat 0. paul: let's go quickly here, bitcoin up 3.3%. isabelle: it is moving higher,

but it is almost like a weekend or probably worse than a weekend when it comes to liquidity. we know there are wild price swings when it comes to those. marathon holdings, now, the company did file to rename from marathon digital holdings to mara holdings. i dug deeper, what are the outcome of the dashing line -- this puts ownership up to $3.3 billion. if you believe acorn will be $1 million one day. it is still nothing to microstrategy, which owns $38 billion paid i cannot even imagine. paul: good stuff there. thank you, isabelle lee. appreciate that. abbreviated trading. equity markets in the u.s. close at 1:00 p.m. wall street time. on market, 2:00 maybe?

caroline: a lot of the other holidays, the markets are like peace out, cub scout. but they are working. paul: the s&p and nasdaq trading her today. let's check in with our next guest. rob haworth, senior investment strategy director at u.s. bank asset management. rob, just looking at spx, i know some people want to look at spi, the equal weighted, but the spx is up 25 percent here. fixed income people, even they have made money, particularly the ones willing to take leverage in the high-yield and leveraged loan market. let's think about 2025. what do you guys at u.s. bank think about 2025 opportunities? rob: it is probably going to be tough to match the returns we have had this year across the risk spectrum. we think the set up is particularly -- is decent,

really, as we head into the year. it highlights a couple things. the labor market is strong, unemployment is still quite low. we have the federal reserve cutting rates, maybe not as much as expected, but those rate cuts will be more supportive as we get into the middle and later next year. three, the earnings story is quite good still in the s&p 500. you are looking at 10% earnings gains into 2025. we think there is room to run for this market. maybe not 20 plus returns again in 2285, but certainly room to get high single-digit, low double-digit types of returns in the new year. we would send that to high-yield corporate's, high-yield and a suppose, particularly because those fundamentals still look really good. we are seeing debt ratios come down, the economy is still growing. that is giving us more room to

earn that income then avoid some of the stress we typically see at the end of a cycle. paul: you and your team waking up the day after the election, did you change your asset allocation, the way you thought about markets? because a republican president and a republican congress means a lot of things to a lot of people from an economic perspective. rob: it certainly does. we looked at it as we put some of the risk factors behind us and did two things. we looked to go overweight equities relative fixed income. that trend continues even with slightly slower or moderating growth in the u.s. we think the trends look good for global equities in the new year. and we really pressed overweight in the credit sector. we have spreads are quite low, so if you think about the relationship between high-yield bond yields and treasuries, that is fairly narrow. the reality is the fundamentals

are getting better. earnings stories are getting better, that spreads are getting better. you are seeing distress and defaults come down. there is room to run in both these that did well in 24 inches continue into 2025. caroline: so pleased you are here, because you have joined the technology show before, and we talked a lot about the ai trade. when you look at the s&p 500 at a new high today, same with the dow, nvidia a big contributor, i am interested as to whether it is still those same names that galvanize the benchmark next year. rob: we think this can open up. we think that our room for other companies to participate. the interesting thing about the artificial intelligence trade is the growth is still there, but the pace is slowing down. over the next couple years, that will be an important place to be, but probably not in the near term.

we think this starts to broaden out to more cyclical names, financials, industrials, utilities, which benefit from interest rates stabilizing here. we think this is a broader rally we have seen -- then we have seen before. that can encompass global stocks. valuations are inexpensive, and a single start to benefit early, we could see some relief. that is one place we think investors need to maintain 80 hold. caroline: are you talking europe? china? even asia exposure? rob: for us, we are staying fairly diversified. we are not had to the point of trying to pick very narrow winners. it is a space where we had a strong dollar. that may continue, but it may not. we think there are opportunities across all those markets.

it has not been a great story for europe or china, but we have investors look across the whole fence. paul: on the fixed income space, i am happy just to be a chicken and sit at the two-year treasury and collect my 4.2%. that is not a bad way. but are there credit risks? rob: we definitely take credit risks. we think there is extra income. you have decent quality. two, we look into not only high-yield corporate credit but bank loans, leveraged loans, as well as things like aaa cielo's and nongovernmental agency, where you are able to pick up another couple points of income relative to the two-year treasury. yes, you take on credit risk, yes, you get less compensation than you may have historically, but those fundamental trends of

a good economy and rising -- falling distress, improving credit quality in those spaces means you should be able to garner that extra income and do better in 2025. paul: one of the most fascinating growth stories has been the growth of private credit. do you try to get exposure to private credit? rob: for certain investors, we absolutely do. we look at it in a couple ways. one, direct purchases for qualified purchasers. we also look at catastrophe bonds, where there are more limited the quiddity, but you're getting income and being able to diversify away from the business cycle, because it is very much dependent upon the global catastrophe cycle, and we have seen very good returns over the past year, seeing solid returns this year, setting up for good returns next year. we would encourage people to

continue to look away from the very traditional, high quality investment rate elements of the bond market and the for more esoteric opportunities to grab risk. caroline: rob haworth, thank you so much. have yourself a very great black friday and weekend. coming up, we are talking about the intersection of influencers, social media, and your purchase decisions. we have amber venz box, president and cofounder of ltk, on her read on e-commerce. have you ever bought anything off instagram? paul: no, but i'm not the demo. there are a lot of people just walking by who would have great stories. -- that is not how you get people to the store these days. caroline: meanwhile, interesting

that meta's on the high side after reports mark zuckerberg was at mar-a-lago. paul: that was very interesting. didn't facebook then ban former president trump? caroline: yeah, as twitter was from january 2021. paul: what you hear from a lot of trump observers, he is very transactional. you could probably say the same thing about a lot of this is people. this is the transactions that make sense for both sides. caroline: we will see whether the viewpoint on tiktok and whether or not a ban may happen in the united states, that is a key can jupiter -- contributor to meta's path. we have so much more debate on social media for you. this is blo. ♪

it's time to grow your business. create a website. how? godaddy. coding... nah. but all that writing... nope. ai, done, built. let's get to work. create a beautiful website in minutes with godaddy. paul: i'm paul sweeney come alongside caroline hyde. we are in our bloomberg radio

studio in new york city. this is a special edition of "bloomberg markets," on tv and radio. it is black friday. we have a shortened trading day. s&p up about 0.6%. let's take a look at the yield space, 10 year treasury, yields coming in just slightly, down for five basis points. oil a little higher, wti crude just under $70 a barrel, gold higher yet again, why not, and bitcoin up another 3%. we are on the $100,000 watch. so a little bit of gains on a black friday commercial and trading day. caroline: record highs across a couple benchmarks. we will see a different approach now, different view and take on how bullion you are feeling this black writer, particularly if you are following influencers.

ltk's about e-commerce. it is a platform for creators and their businesses, and it shows creators and influencers are outpacing holiday sales, and the holiday retail sales are driven by creators on their platform which were five times the overall with rate in the market last year. let's bring in ltk president and cofounder amber venz box. put into perspective someone who is not on instagram as much as i am, for example, and is not getting fed these posts. how often are people buying their goods via a social media influencer, being influenced? amber: right, well it is quite a scale. this year, we expect people to buy over five million dollars of products from ltk creators. it is about every second, there are 1.5 purchases made, $200,000 purchased from an ltk creator. that is exclusively online. we know from many of our partners that about half the sales were driving an especially

big bucks. beauty is happening in store. this is becoming culturally normative did we are seeing it among gen z and millennials, a huge uptick among those who purchase through creators. 56% of the wider population now report shopping from creators. that is up 64% year-over-year, according to our study. caroline: it means a lot for your business, for the influencer, for your advertising spend. how are you tracking off-line purchases? how is it you are seeing this conversion, and you can go to your partners and say look at the concern -- return you are getting. amber: this is a new technology we have been trialing. this is one of our largest u.s.-based big beauty partners, and we have been doing innovative projects with them to understand the full frontal influence of creators. because it is not just branding and positioning.

obviously, the impression they're getting, but also consideration through the actual purchase behavior. we are leading the market in being able to report on that for our brands, which is why you see all these dollars rotating from other mediums, whether social or search or -- we are getting better and better at quantifying the value they are injecting into this retail ecosystem, especially during a holiday season like today. paul: can you give us a sense on who an ltl creator is and what are their economics? amber: an ltk creator, we have been in business over 40 years. some of them started in the blogging days, some in pinterest . there are new creators over time. these are people who are wonderful at creating a community that trust them, and

they are reaching every single day. it is both entertainment and relationship building. that is why we are better able to drive an roi for a marketer than someone at home. if you have a relationship with me, let's say you know i am always a contributor on the news, i may know where to get the best outfits. you will trust me more. maybe i am telling you which eyelashes are the best to clip on for the news. paul: who is a typical customer of these creators? amber: they are high earning, and they are educated. we see the ltk shopper typically is making over $100,000 a year. they have a college education. while they have an outsized spending power, they come of this year, have grown spending power by 38%, which when you

look at the broader population, theirs decreased around 7% or 8%. this is a really differentiated group. they are buying everything from big rocks to luxury. they are interested in wealth preservation, which is why you see everything from that $10 lipgloss to the hundreds of dollars body bag -- we want to track the ironing customer who has not historically been part of their mix. caroline: not your demographic, per se, a little older than a college kid, basically, or a little younger than that, but can you speak to what is happening in australia and whether or not your clients, seeing this global pushback on advertising and influencers focusing on children 16 and younger -- we just had the ruling from australia that 16-year-olds and younger will not be able to get on instagram, come a year. what does that mean for your clients?

amber: it is exciting to see, candidly, as a parent paid i have four children, and what is that influence doing for them and how do i control it and use it in a productive way? i hope we see a sure incision into proximity tools. at ltk, we are an adult only platform. while everything we are doing is very much in a positive spirits and a helpful guide, we are a platform that does not have to deal with a lot of things social media has to deal with. we have always been adult only, both on the creator side and the shoppers side, so we do not expect it to impact specifically our business. but if you are asking from a personal perspective, these types of regulations will be helpful, because we happens sitting in the middle of an experiment. we will only just learned in the coming years what happens when you put children in front of a screen at this period of time.

the new york times has an article about that for entertainment, the cost of it long-term. historically, it is thought that access to technology will help the wealthy, and what we have seen it is -- is it has really damaged the poor. paul: if i am a creator or influencer, which i am neither, why would i go and the ltk platform versus other platforms out there? amber: the ltk platform is the only one actually created to help you do your job as a creator. for so many years, creators reason other platforms. i joke that i live on a ranch, so using a screwdriver when you need a hammer. they have rented properties to get the job done, and over the years, ltk has invested hundreds of millions of dollars to build something that is purpose built for two things. to retain, nurture, and grow your community. as a creator, your access to

your engaged community is your entire business. so social media abandoned that role for being a community-based platform. we started investing heavily in that space in 2017 and, today, have a robust form that is both content management and a crm for creators. that becomes really important. we have monetization built-in. so to have a tool that is built for you and has wanted -- monetization built in means i can wake up and talk about what i love, whether that is snacks or what i am buying for my children. we also invested a lot for the holiday season. so give guides this year, the functionality has really increased. we have seen twice the number of gift guides created. about 40% of those were created in the "for her" category, but we are seeing a lot of gender-neutral gifts being the

most popular. everything from apple airpods to uggs, kitchenaid mixer, stanley tumblers. we have seen a lot of surges about beauty -- searches about beauty. searches for lux pajamas are up 300% this year, so that must be the holiday gift the season. paul: amber venz box, thank you very much. coming up, big budget movie makers are hoping for a joyous season at the box office. we talk about the expectations ahead. it is an import part of the season. after the summer, it is a holiday season. that is big for the theaters. this is bloomberg. ♪

it's our son, he is always up in our business.

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paul: i'm paul sweeney in new york city, here with caroline hyde in our new york radio studio for a special edition of "bloomberg markets" on bloomberg television the radio, how cool is that. a little green on the screen. s&p up .6%. nasdaq, .8% gain. 10-year treasury yield up five basis points, 4.2%. crude oil up just slightly, $69 per barrel.

bitcoin, up 3.3%, 98,300. movement in the risky assets in the market. let's see where the action is under the hood. we can do that without -- -with his ability inner bloomberg studio. isabelle: we have webbush, really bullish, saying tesla is likely to open up ai and autonomous opportunity, helped by the incoming trump administration aggressively doing heads down on everything ai and autonomous path. caroline: i mean, many people, the jury is out as to whether trump will be pro generative ai particularly around regulation or not. yes, there is going to be innovation rolled bare, according to the likes of ramaswamy. the we hear that elon musk

himself is worried about generative ai, regulation around it, doesn't want all out enabling we will see the interesting nuances as to whether robotaxis will be allowed everywhere, and more to the point, is robotaxi technology really fit and able for use within tesla at the moment? many would question whether he could start putting his fleet on the roads from the robotaxi perspective. isabelle: that's a fair point, but two things could be true. he could be worried about ai but still power through, and tesla isn't just carmaker, it is a leading disruptive tech company. paul: the anti-ives call would be that it is apparent that making christ is a crappy-- making cars is a crappy business. if you want to do the head fake and talk about ai and fake out your investors yet again, that is the bear case. caroline: if you take away the subsidies, the $7500 credit.

paul: if you are a bull on tesla, you are up along elon musk, and that is a great bet for a long time. if you want to bet against him on ai and the robotaxis, dan ives will say -- caroline: you have been wrong for a long time. tesla is up 30% this month, one of the best performers so far. who also been the best performers? isabelle: given that it is december, the biggest gainers for the month, pay, software, big earnings last week. among the big earners are warner bros., tesla, and united airlines. i want to bring up united airlines because it reported earnings, but it is up 133% year-to-date, beating delta, beating alaska, a slew of many reasons. it is benefiting from international travel momentum, its frequent flyer program, oil

prices, and wall street estimates i did a quick search on the terminal for headlines on united and i saw at least five upgrades on price targets. paul: i am captive to newark airport. i've been a continental, now united customer forever, a gaji llion and one miles on nothing. i don't know, they're all the same to me. of the major airlines, deltas, americans, they are all the same. but they do a good job, they get me where i need to go. isabelle: that's amazing. caroline: a couple of million. paul: the investment banker going to topeka thursday january, not so fun. that is what we do back in the day. yeah, spending on those miles now. caroline: nice, good. paul: airline business is such a brutal business, i can't imagine -- you have got fuel, planes, weather. tough business. isabelle: we can all agree that airline travel is worse now.

unless were first-class. paul: surgeon employers allow us to do that. anything else for us? isabelle: moderna, supermicro has had a rough month. it struggled to stay listed on the nasdaq and changed its auditor. it is still there and it has a bright spot. lisa got an auditor. -- at least i got an auditor. paul: get some financial statements we can rely on. isabelle lee giving us the lowdown on the movers in the market. i haven't seen "gladiator ii," i haven't seen "wicked," but i gotta do that over the weekend. but that has been a positive story for the u.s. box office will joining us, editorial director at the box office company. talk to us about the state of north american box office.

are people going to the movies? >> oh, it's a hot streak, paul. you've seen great recovery so far this year. we entered the year expecting down season year-over-year. but really since june it's been a hot streak. we're expecting to finish the year close to even to 2023 after beginning expecting a 10% slide. it's been a big recovery think to films like this. caroline: disney just knocking it out of the park. winning formula after winning formula for somehow biggest -- how big is "moana 2" going to be? daniel: i think it's going to be huge. the largest thanksgiving day ever for title, "moana 2" did that yesterday. we are expecting to be $200 million-plus from that title this weekend. this might be the highest-earning thanksgiving weekend of all time. caroline: and is that because

they got the formula right that there is something for everyone? one of my producers, she was off to go see -- not to typecast, but she was going to see "wicked" while her husband was going to see "gladiator ii." something for everyone, and there is the family formula with "moana 2." we are all satiated. daniel: caroline, i think you nailed it there. something for every audience this weekend but the opening for "gladiator ii," 62% male, for "wicked," 60% female. those three movies occupy 75% of all showtimes in north america according to our data at the box office company. that is a massive response from theaters to the overwhelming demand from audiences to watch these movies in theaters. paul: daniel, give us a sense of maybe how the hollywood moviemaking moguls in l.a., how

are they thinking about the theater release window vs. streaming and all that kind of stuff today vs. pre-pandemic? is it still what it used to be, or is it a different world? daniel: different from 2019. the big lesson that the entire industry and hollywood has learned is the overwhelming role that a theatrical release has in promoting your title downstream. streaming is still very important, but that theatrical performance is crucial. let's take "moana 2," for example. a year ago today that was supposed to be a disney plus animated series for streaming. today this is a billion-dollar-plus global box office hit for disney. disney with two huge animated movies, one earlier this year, "inside out 2," this one, "moana 2," and then "deadpool & wolverine" over the summer and

then "mufasa," the "lion king" sequel. paul: i listened to conference calls from the big media companies, disneys, warner bros., pointing us to 20 25 as a big theatrical release year, due to some of the writers and actors strike that push production out. talk to us about next year. daniel: paul, i can you actually fight on that. if we look at the -- i think you are actually right on that. if we look at the last four years, hollywood hasn't had an uninterrupted year since 2019. 2024 is the first full year of production and hollywood since 2019. 2025 is going to be a huge bounce back for the theatrical industry. we are forecasting between $9.5 billion and $10 billion in box office in 2025. in 2026, a ceiling of $11 billion, the benchmark this industry had the latter half of

the 2010s. caroline: what is it spending like when you go to the theater? daniel: i'm sorry, what is spending like? caroline: are people embracing it wholeheartedly? how much -- how much margin has accrued of two people running it as wills making it? daniel: let's face it, the technology we have at home is great, so the theatrical experience has really invested a lot in making that experience either inside the auditorium, advancements in and sound, in the lobby with alcoholic beverages, audiences are responding to that. listen to the conference calls paul was saying a second ago on the movie theater side, you are seeing huge margins on the spending side on food and beverage. that's been a big uptick since the pandemic. performance like premium format, our friends at imax or dolby or

other companies with higher ticket price, consumers are looking for that to have the best possible experience at the movies. caroline: the thing is, for "gladiator ii" or "wicked," these movies cost a lot to make. i'm interested as to the marketing spend that is gone with "wicked" or the sheer technology effort with "gladiator ii," are they making that money back and then some? how are they cracking the code that the movie they spent a lot on is the one they bring in a lot of money on? daniel: caroline, what you just said is a big reason why the studios are highlighting and emphasizing theatrical release. the more release windows you have in different formats, the more possibility you have to break even and make more money over the lifetime of a film. if you go to streaming too early or you only get streaming, you only have one revenue cycle, one small window to get there. with the theatrical release you

could have three months of success at the box office, and from there have that amplified your marketing when it goes into streaming to have that second dip in the revenues. having a long life for films is crucial, and that is why a lot of movies and a lot of studios have gone back to this windowing of theatrical first and streaming second to make sure they can hit the numbers they need for their shareholders. paul: daniel, talk to us about china. before the pandemic china was rivaling north america in terms of box office. is that still the case? daniel: you know, i don't think it has as much of a role as it did in the pre-pandemic era. obviously the pandemic raised question marks on who was going to be the box office king. but really from the studios we have seen less of an emphasis to make sure that they lock that chinese release. it is such a gamble, paul. you don't know what you're going to get from a release in that market. if you get it, it's great. a movie like the third

installment of the "venom" series is doing fantastic in china but it is far from a guarantee studios believe having a strong domestic release and a reliable turnout from overseas audiences and markets in europe and latin america and other markets in asia, that is still the winning formula for most movies. caroline: what about ai and whether cash -- paul: ah. daniel: huge talking point. i think that is up in the air. there is a lot of things we need to figure out and what it means for actors and labor relations. a big part of the strikes were around these questions. like in many industries, ai has a lot of potential. i'm not sure it is a reality just yet. caroline: so much more to debate on all of that. we thank you so much for joining us, daniel loria, senior vice president of content strategy and editorial director at the box office company, making us want to go out and watch some movies. there is a movie going on across the water in france in

real-time, and it is a real political saga and drama, take two, but it is real life for many. paul: unfortunately, and you see that in french bond yields surging, and the spread between-- feta spread, spread between french bonds and greek bonds. caroline: we will have so much more crusty french assets and indeed what marine le pen is currently threatening to the prime minister. this is bloomberg. ♪ i can't believe you corporate types are still at it.

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paul: caroline hyde, paul sweeney, live in our bloomberg radio studio in midtown

manhattan, special edition of "bloomberg markets" on bloomberg tv and radio. this is what we call simulcasting. global trade is facing a potential new wiring as president-elect donald trump prepares to reenter the white house. ehl group's ceo spoke to bloomberg about how he sees the potential upsides and downsides of that rewiring. >> definitely it is a big topic. i was in south america just two weeks ago for an entire week, mexico, brazil, colombia as well, and the mexican economy being so closely tied to the u.s. it is a big topic what will happen, and also amongst our customers we have supply chain that have been closing, parts coming from mexico into france in the u.s. as well. there is concern around then. also i think the pacific, the china-u.s. trade being quite, yeah, a strong element of that from b to c as well, de minimis

again -- >> is there any evidence people are front running the tariffs? tobias: there is good volume in the last week. we see that in ocean freight, air freight. the year has been quite volatile. we have very strong exports out of china for many weeks on the ocean freight side, especially strong growth there. it has been volatile, so it is harder to call out whether there is a strong element of that. >> talking about trade under donald trump, how do you think europe is going to retaliate -- i was going to say negotiate. what are you planning for? tobias: that's a good question. 2025 is a year where the scenarios are unusually quite apart. you could see a good scenario where indications out of the u.s. continue, investments along with ira, for instance, on next relief, actions in europe that

lead to stable governments that could influence confidence quite positively. on the other hand there is this an error support for ukraine -- there is the scenario where support for ukraine might not continue, tariffs coming into play. the european automotive industry isn't in quite a weak position. seeing tariff -- is in quite a weak position. seeing tariffs on top of that would make people quite nervous. caroline: dhl group ceo tobias meyer on the breadth of outcomes and geopolitics affecting his business. let's stick with geopolitics and perhaps a lack of strength within certain governments. marine le pen's national rally is demanding for the changes to the french government's 2025 budget bill after prime minister michel barnier dropped plans to raise taxes on lecture city, a -- on electricity, a key concession. boy, this saga continues to unfold. the ultimatum is do it by

monday. >> is your say, it's really us -- as you say, it's really a saga, and is a going to be a happy or disastrous ending for it? marine le pen has made a whole series of demands. michel barnier gave into at least one of them yesterday when he said they are not quick to raise taxes on electricity. she came back to a series of other demands largely which would put money in the pockets of working-class and middle-class people in france. the question would be if barnier were to do that, how would you fund it. it is only friday evening in paris. we have until monday. people work over the weekend. i would expect there to be likely more movement over the weekend, people showing up on news shows and talking about what they might or might not do. i think this will go down to the way because in politics it generally does. no one really has an incentive

to change paths or swerve in this game of chicken between marine le pen or michel barnier until we get to the last minute. hopefully they won't actually crash, but you never know. paul: this headline from bloomberg tells you all you need to know. french yields close in on italy with safe market image in ruins. boy, financial markets signaling their concern here. at the end of the day, is there incentive for these two sides to come together, or could a worst-case scenario unfold on monday? alan: it's a good question. two things. one, it's funny, french prime minister michel barnier is a little bit excessive in his terminology, just like we might have been if we said confidence in ruins in the headline on that particular story. he said earlier today that france can no longer borrow at reasonable rates. but if you look at french bond yields right now, they are roughly 2.85% at the moment.

that is about the average what they have been all year long. rates are down today. it's not to do with france, it is the larger ecb cutting rates and lower rates in europe overall trend. france is not really out of friend. -- trend. yes, it is closing on italy and i heard you with the brie vs. feta comparison earlier. that is because greece has done very well. overall it is pretty inexpensive to borrow in france. the question really is is france ready to blow up its 2025 budget ? it would knock out the government, put france in a chaotic situation when in fact bond yields are not very high, borrowing rates are not superhigh. it would be quite a dramatic decision to blow it all up. politics and economics don'-- and finance in particular don't always go together. the decision is not always one

based on the other. i'm with you and i certainly agree, it seems pretty unreasonable to blow it all up, but that doesn't mean it won't happen. france is a country where politics sometimes really takes control. paul: really appreciate your reporting, alan katz of bloomberg news. markets are waiting key economic data. manufacturing, pmi, the november jobs report. let's discuss with jess minton. can't get rid of you. dude, you are my cohost for two hours. [laughter] jess: we have the eco-data coming up and cyber monday that y'all have been talking about all morning in addition to black friday. it is the kickoff to the final trading month of the year after the s&p 500 on pace for its best month of the year in november. you also have -- you were talking about the eco-data. we will have more of a labor market-heavy week because we have the monthly employment

report next friday. you have the jolts report that fed officials like powell keep a close eye on. fed chair jerome powell is going to be speaking -- "the new york times" has the deal book summit next wednesday, so this is the last week we will get fed officials speaking before the blackout week begins before that december fed decision. you can't forget earnings. even though we have had roughly 9% of the s&p 500, salesforce as well as more retailers like dollar stores, dollar general and dollar tree, next week. caroline: can you just assess, give the jess minton assessment of earnings? i've only been keeping an eye on the tech earnings, and that if the forecast missed, no matter how well you did in the previous quarter, but en masse have earnings proved to be as good as the stock market might lead you to believe? jess: it's a great point,

because this time around coming into third-quarter reporting season, the bar was lowered, which we tend to see more often than not. we didn't see that during the second quarter. this time around- t preseason estimates for the s&p 500 were 4.2%. right now they are 97% of the market cap reporting. that is double the growth estimates of what's outside analysts in aggregate -- what southside analysts in aggregate were looking at. overall you are seeing better-than-expected growth. using the continuation -- caroline, you focused so much on tech and people talk about slowing estimates, especially looking at the year-over-year periods, because in 2022 we were in a bear market and the earnings outlook wasn't as strong. the comps year ago or so dramatic for the tech companies compared to now. it is not necessarily a bad thing when i talk to portfolio managers or analysts about what we are seeing with earnings growth.

it is more you are seeing the broadening out and where the sectors keep pace. paul: jess, thank you so much for that. jess minton covers the equities from bloomberg news. that about does it for me and you, right? caroline: three-hour dance comes to an end. your five-hour marathon. paul: it's all good. on a shortened trading date, we still got earnings. we been working hard, so have folks in the market. dow, .6%. nasdaq to a little better, .8%. positive moves in the equity markets. yields coming in slightly. 10-year treasury yield 5 basis points. not refinancing the mortgage, by getting there. caroline: crypto, one last time. paul: one last crypto -- bitcoin, the tom keene memorial quote, up 3%. i'm calling it 98,000. that does it for caroline hyde

and me. more for you on bloomberg television and radio. this is bloomberg. ♪