tim: live from the "bloomberg businessweek" studio, a special edition of "bloomberg markets: the close." vonnie, can we call it the close? vonnie: if something gets close, i can go home. tim: you had a busy day. a big theme of our program's retail sales. we've got a great group of folks joining us the next couple of hours in the studio. here in the bloomberg studio in new york city. vonnie, you are out since the wee hours of the morning. vonnie: i was out at 5:00 a.m.. i wanted to see what was the story outside macy's. people lined up for half a block, it was really interesting. i wasn't expecting anybody to be there. sure enough, they turned up. they may have thought there would be massive doorbusters and huge months of gift cards. they were giving out gift cards, but not tons and tons of money people were expecting potentially. but they got in and got what

they wanted. as the money progressed, interestingly, it became very busy to the point where 10:00 when i was leaving it was all most uncomfortable. black friday shopping is very much alive and well. tim: it did feel like on the subway they were very few people doing -- coming into do work. a a lot of international tourists and people doing shopping for some vonnie: tourists that adjust come from the west coast and had gotten off to fly from turkey. people coming out with bags, not just sightseeing. it was very cold. tim: black friday alive and well. we've got a great program coming up. we do have a group of folks joining us to talk all things retail. look at macro markets a little later, too. kurt wagner will be talking about everything happening in the world of facebook, meta-platforms. mark zuckerberg making a pilgrimage to mar-a-lago to smooth things over with president-elect donald trump we will check in with kurt later

in the program. we are seeing records for the s&p 500 and the russell 2000. we are seeing tech lead the way. nasdaq 100 not at a record, but outperforming the s&p 500 today, up .8%. s&p up .6%. .3%. let' these markets to kick things off. chuckhuck, how are you? happy day after thanksgiving. chuck: very well, happy thanksgiving to you as well, tim. tim: it may be a little quiet, but we are seeing records for the s&p 500 and the russell 2000. what do you make of the black friday trade today? chuck: i think the trend is very positive. prospects of trump coming in and a couple of weeks means various

policies are going to change. they tend to be market friendly. in general i see the market really having little to overcome in the near term. vonnie: will the president be very sensitive to market moves such that he reacts to the market and not the other way around? is that a danger to the market? charles: it's a possibility, vonnie, no question about it. he is a very strong minded individual, we all know that. we're going to see what he wants, and then we will have to see what he can do, because not everything is going to be passed easily by congress. he's got a small majority in the senate and attending majority in the house --a tiny majority in the house. he may have a compromise on. tim: ok, let's talk a little bit about that. i have a few questions with regard to that. there is this idea that markets are going to keep the president-elect in check.

we've seen this narrative over the past week with scott present being announced -- scott bessent being announced as treasury secretary the idea of tariffs a few days later. which is it for the incoming administration? is it going to be business as usual with a traditional treasury secretary and traditional advisors, or is donald trump going to go rogue with these tariffs? charles: i don't know that i would call it rogue, tim, but i expect trump to push his agenda. he can be a very forceful guy, as we all know. yes got some unusual views can be has gotten very strong -- he has got some unusual views, he has gotten very strong views. bessent will go more along with him that he will go along with bessent. bessent seems more inclined to be a free-trade guy, but he accepted the job of treasury secretary and i'm sure yeah have that conversation with the president and i'm sure trump intends to push for some tariff

increases. he can do that on his own and bessent will go along. tim: i guess the reason i say go rogue, it's not the way people on wall street siesta key to economic growth because there are concerns that tariffs raise prices on consumers and if we see mass deportation in the united states, that could be inflationary, putting the humanitarian side of that aside, and there is a big part of that. there are a lot of questions about the economic policies he talked about on the campaign trail and whether those could be inflationary and could eat into growth. charles: that's exec the right, and i do think that is exactly right, and i do think they will be inflationary. even if he swaps the promise of no tariff increases in exchange for something else, we are going to see a combination of some tariff increases and certainly more restrictions against immigration. that combination is inflationary on both accounts. the labor market is fairly tight

bit growth has been strong. the only way it was successful is by so many people crossing the border and adding to our supply of labor making it possible for firms to hire more workers. that means if the supply of workers gets slowed down, we are going to see upward pressure on wage rates and higher pressure on prices. the same is true for tariffs more directly. i do think we are going to see higher inflation pressures, and the fed of course has been saying all along that they still think they are on a path to 2%. it is harder to be on that path when these other things are happening. vonnie: what do you make of the economic data right now in terms of what we are seeing with the consumer and in terms of what is coming down the pike, savings, whether the consumer is going to be able to shoulder everything that is happening? charles: it's this thesis that the consumers going to buckle and that would cause the economy to go into recession. that thesis is maybe three years

old, and it has obviously been disproven by the data. the logic of the data supports more growth. as long as you have job growth as strong as it has been, there is no way for consumers to retrench. what you saw in your shopping expedition this morning, vonnie, fits that narrative perfectly. consumers feel pretty good, and when you look at the debt data, household debt relative to household incomes at lowe's. the stock market at all-time highs. housing values close to all-time highs, although they have retreated a little bit. consumer is in very good shape. there is no reason to think that consumers are going to retrench anytime soon. and then you have the government trying to put money into green initiatives. maybe trump will reverse some of that, but the money still coming in. capital investment is strong, the cost of financing is low. i thing across the board there is really nothing to hold the economy back. vonnie: so, chuck can what is

the biggest challenge of the economy and the economic strength we are seeing? >> as i see it, it is inflation. we will see some increase in tariffs for sure. how much can we don't know. trump is very transactional and he may offer mexico some lower rate of tariff increase if they do a better job of keeping the borders closed. there is no doubt that we are going to see it put pressure on inflation in my mind. the economy is growing fast. people look at the slowdown in job growth. they feel good about that because it means that may be inflation pressures will moderate. think about how successful you are likely to be if you tell a traffic cop you don't deserve a speeding ticket because you just slowed down 100 and 70-mile zone. you are going even faster

before. we are still growing too fast, faster than the supply of labor can provide workers. we are seeing that in these wage packages that are being negotiated by unions across the country in many industries. tim: let's push this forward to a couple weeks from now when the federal reserve meets in december. i cannot believe we are the last fed meeting of the year. i know in the notes you said ahead of time you said the fed made a mistake in the wearing by 25 basis points during this month -- lowering by 25 basis points during this month's meeting. charles: i think it was a mistake because the prospect of higher inflation is very much entrenched. the fed bank on the idea that inflation is coming down, and the last several months it has been fairly stable. we have seen modest up ticks. effectively it is flattish. there is hopeful thinking,

wishful thinking that inflation is going to continue to moderate. i think the fed would be better off if it just simply said we want to see more evidence and we will wait. that is what they should do. on the other hand, it's clear that a number of them would like to lower rates some more. it is a 50-50 bet, pretty much how the market has a price. vonnie: are you thinking of who takes over after jerome powell and if how will survive his full-time? charles: i fully expect powell will serve his full term. i think trump has gotten the message. i doubt they will do anything troubling to force him out. i don't see that is likely at all. it's a little premature to think about who will come in to replace him. it wouldn't surprise me if kevin hassett is in the wings for that job. nonetheless, it's really to do that.

i don't look quite that far for macroeconomic events. it is harder to forecast six months, let alone a year or more. tim: that is fair to say. think of where we were sitting year ago, six to 8 rate cuts in 2024? charles: that's exactly right, and i thought that was unlikely. i kept on writing that i don't see the basis for recession, which is what the market is priced for, when you have an inverted curve for three years. the market is convinced that is coming and you cannot construct that story other than to be saying rates went up in the economy is going to go into recession. that is kind of sympathetic. tim: where are the opportunities right now, chuck? charles: they are in some of the areas that represent tremendous value. i think when you look at the market you can break down -- not exactly equally divided camps. there is the mag seven and they

disliked, unloved s&p 493. there is a good case for some of the mag seven, but it is a much easier case when you look at the rest of the market. the banks are very attractive, they have done spectacularly well. nonetheless they are still cheap, and with a different regulatory environment and a healthy economy and rates at low levels, the banks are going to do very well. energy is another that i like. i have a lot of exposure to some of the oil and gas pipelines. if trump does in fact do stuff to make it possible to do more drilling, that increases the supply, somebody's got to carry that product. the pipelines will do well. there are a lot of areas where there is plenty of opportunity. vonnie: chuck lieberman, always an absolute pleasure to speak with you. i hope you have been having a wonderful thanksgiving and good black friday.

speak to you soon. it's fascinating that the trump trade is back on. you see bitcoin higher, nvidia higher, some of the old favorites. even with a low volume there are no new ideas. tim: remember two years ago when bitcoin was in that earlier era, 2017, everybody went home for thanksgiving and there was that cousin was like talking your head off about bitcoin? vonnie: yes. the taxi driver on the way home. tim: everyone talking about bitcoin. vonnie: you know it's over at that point. tim: we are talking a little bit about the consumer. we have got a great guest, the ceo of compass diversified holdings. the portfolio includes everything from lower-end stuff to diamonds that cost hundreds of thousands of dollars. ♪

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i'm tim stenovec like that vonnie quinn on this shortened trading david people hitting the source for black friday and hitting the keyboards for cyber monday. a big theme of our program is retail and understand what consumers are doing and thinking by the holiday and especially how executives are thinking about the holiday. shorten holiday week between thanksgiving and the next major holiday. a little bit of pressure on these retailers. let's bring in elias sabo, ceo of compass diversified holdings. their portfolio is incredibly diverse. they've got an accessories brand, diamonds. you can buy those for hundreds of thousands of dollars. they work with brands like nike, montclair, lululemon. they have a great view of what the consumer looks like. i want to get an understanding about how you think about this portfolio because, as i mentioned, you played in so many different areas.

i don't see a big commonality between the innovative shoelace for snowboards and cyclists and then incredibly high-handed diamonds that can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars. what is the common thread that runs through this? elias: thank you for having me on, tim. the common thread we have is our companies are all innovative and disruptive, and frankly, they align with our values. if you look at the companies we own, we work with pretty much all consumer cohorts, from the wealthiest with lugano diamonds, where the average ticket price almost half $1 million -- vonnie: ooh! elias: two mass-market harbors buying wax cubes to make your home smell better. what is common is a dedication towards innovation. what you are seeing is when you

have on-trend products that are innovative, the consumer tends to purchase those throughout cycles in good and bad economic times. we happen to be at a time right now where the consumer is extremely strong, times feel very good, and we have had record results for the entire year posting double digit revenue growth and ebitda growth. tim: vonnie, you know something is expensive when you go to the website and you click on it and it says "inquire." vonnie: i was completely distracted, i didn't hear a thing elias said after he said half $1 million. the average. there is this idea that we are now seeing some consumers be a little bit more choosy. there are people who have earned $100,000 and shop at walmart,

which is not something we saw before. are you seeing that across your brands? you have a massive portfolio in the most expensive goods and affordable goods. elias: we have been seeing that the last few years. there has been a trend with inflation where consumers have had to make choices. luckily we have brands that are in the upper cohort of income for our consumers. that consumer has generally stayed insulated, especially in the top quartile, where most of our products are sold. that consumer has stayed insulated and stayed in its channel. we have seen a lot of the middle cohorts moving down, and i think that is a function of inflation. inflation has had everybody. as we know, it pinched a lot of

discretionary purchases. the way to offset that is to be more conscious in your spending pattern and or shopping. we have seen that. fortunately that is only a small portion of our portfolio. the vast majority of it with the upper-income consumer continues to shop in its normal channels. vonnie: some of the items would be inflation hedges -- i'm thinking even diamonds. elias: correct. one of the things lugano has done so well is by taking so much margin out of the entire supply chain for the diamond and jewelry industry, we are able to convey value to our consumers, and our consumers look at this product as part of a luxury collectible rather than just an occasion-based jewelry purchase. by being able to do that, we are able to create things like inflation hedges for that consumer, and also growth in a

functional asset. it is a very disruptive model, it is redefining how the jewelry purchase and where it sits in one portfolio should be. as a result, we do think it is a great inflation hedge, especially if you get tariffs and other inflationary inputs that come out of the new administration. tim: how are you thinking about lab-ground diamonds? we are seeing a lot of pressure on the industry as a result of consumers, at least at certain levels, not necessarily caring where the diamond comes from to the extent that we don't care if this is a naturally mined diamond or one that is grown in a lab. look at the problems zales has faced. i'm not saying the price when you operate in is there, but are using similar pressures of the high-end? elias: tim, we are not seeing pressures. in fact, to the contrary,

pricing is holding up. one of the things you have to understand with lugano is i would relate it much more to an art purchase or a rare car purchase than i would into a traditional jewelry purchase. you can get replicas of famous art pieces from van gogh, but he would never have -- you would never have an incredibly wealthy purchaser who would want to buy that. our stones that are the centerpieces of most of what we sell are very rare and exotic. it could be blue diamonds or pink diamonds. these constitute less than 1% of the entire diamond supply in the world. our buyers look for authenticity in that. we're not seeing the same pressures that you are seeing through the moderate priced, traditional small white diamond market. that part of the market is

seeing up to 50% price compression, and it's very hard to make up for that. vonnie: i'm curious as to what your next high-positioned targets are. we are hearing time and again from bankers that next year will be the year for m&a to make a resurgence. if that is the case, you will be in the market. where should we be expecting you to look? elias: vonnie, we are always in the market. unfortunately the last two years it has been an incredibly weak m&a market. a lot has been made of the current administration and the ftc chair who has been anti-m&a. that is for the larger transactions. our transactions are in the $200 million to $500 million range. they are typically not getting as much scrutiny. with rates that have been rising and monetary policy which has been tight, that stifles m&a,

especially in the universe where we are where we compete with mostly private equity firms. we are hearing the same thing, bankers are telling us that m&a activity is picking up. there is going to be -- they are doing pictures right now in the first quarter and second quarter should be demonstrably better. in terms of what we are looking at, it goes back to what i started with. we look for innovative and disruptive businesses, but more importantly, businesses that align with our value set within the consumer, healthcare services, and industrial tech markets. we anticipate some of the companies -- vonnie: briefly, elias, because we are out of time, what do you think lina khan would stay on? would she be welcome in the new administration? elias: i couldn't imagine that in a million years. do you -- i think this administration and lina khan's views are the polar opposite. tim: thanks so much for joining us.

elias sabo, ceo of compass diversified holdings they have a portfolio from the innovative shoe laces i use every day when i'm biking on my specialized shoes, lugano diamonds -- vonnie: do you use those every day? tim: did you notice the majority of our conversation was about those million dollar pieces of jewelry? vonnie: i did notice. tim: they've got a great view of the consumer. speaking of a great view of the consumer, on the other side of this special edition of "bloomberg markets," a deep dive into the data one company is seeing as consumers opening our wallets and pocketbooks on this black friday. that is next on bloomberg. ♪

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tim: it is a special edition of "bloomberg markets." tim stenovec and vonnie quinn at the bloomberg headquarters in new york. black friday is underway. we've got a great live log on the bloomberg terminal following reporters who are all over the country. check it out, because there dispatched, checking out the crowds, see what people are buying. a lot of people in l to geti the taylor swift book at target? vonnie: i love this blog. talking about melissa market

knowledge of and malls, it's fascinating. tell us with merchandise is some of the bustling. i was at macy's -- taylor swift merchandise is some of the best-selling. i was at macy's, and whether had a lot to do with it, at 10:00 there weren't that many people around 6:00 a.m. when it opened. by 10:00 a.m., there wasn't rain -- people were stuck indoors at thanksgiving in the tri-state area at least. people wonder to see what discuss were available. tim: did it seem like there were discounts? vonnie: it seems like there were a massive amount of discount. one blog really did strike me -- this meant we spoke to from d.c. said "i don't know what sales are going to be on, to be honest. no one is telling you what is happening." i did feel a little like that because there's a bunch of merchandise and then the signs of 40% of, small running out of meat. it wasn't clear if this was --

small writing underneath. it wasn't clear if there was 40% off the sale price -- tim: we want to get an idea of what data folks are seeing out there. let's bring in a chief revenue officer at a cash-back shopping platform. good to have you with us, julie. give us an idea of the insight you have with this tool, because if you are shopping online you know about how you can use this tool. give people insight into the real-time data you got. >> i'm happy to do that, thanks for having me on this glorious black friday. it is a massive shopping platform with the best rewards out there, especially this time of year, but all year round, we have a 5000 brands who are working with us in order to attract the best shopping

possible by offering rewards by way of cashback that are stackable on top of the amazing deals and promotions that are happening during the big promotional periods like this. it's entirely free for consumers to join. we have 17 million consumers today and growing. vonnie: where are these consumers, julie? we are looking today particularly at the u.s. consumer, but rakuten would have tentacles around the world, right? julie: we do. the business we are discussing today and the rich data in terms of what we are seeing from a consumer behavior standpoint is in north american business, rakuten rewards. vonnie: 17 million consumers sign up. roughly on average in a year, what kind of reward what a consumer expect to get? julie: it is entirely dependent on the shopper. it's a rewards platform that rewards a consumer for frequency and for average order value. the more you buy, the more

likelihood it is that the brands you love the most are going to be paying attention to that and giving you more rewards to come back more frequently. it really is engendering loyalty and frequency, and that is how the brands and retailers view us differently than what they can do on their own. tim: we are in the mist of the holiday shopping season and we are starting even in recent months to get the consultant reports with how much they think consumers are going to spend. we talk about a delayed report this week that said over the holiday period, especially today in cyber monday, consumers are expected to spend 15% more than they spent last year, $650, a new record there. what are you projecting at rakuten? julie: it's been a really interesting year so far. i think we are also projecting what would be a record year both online and also growing in-store

sales. i think a lot of the data we have been showing until now and over the past couple weeks as well as in yesterday and even this morning speaks to a couple of really interesting trends that are specific to this year. the first one i would say is around consumer intent. consumers browsing less but shopping more. we see on our platform sales are up an average order value is up browsing is a little lower. i think that speaks to perhaps the very intelligent consumer doing their research making the list, checking it twice, making sure they are ready to pull the trigger when they see the best possible value, whether the value is by way of promotional discounts, cashback, free shipping, whatever it is, they are ready to go. in tandem with that it has also been a very buy-now moment since the week after the election, which is just a we saw a 57%

increase in shopping the week after the election vs. the week before. that has continued, where there has been a record amount of early shopping happening. i think that speaks to the consumer sentiment, perhaps the turbulence from an economic standpoint, and then wanting to ensure that they get in now when they feel comfortable that they have gotten the offer that is good enough for them. vonnie: julie, you say you have rich data. who is the rakuten rewards signer-upper? it seems no matter where you shop you are invited to be part of the loyalty program. what with the initial offering of -- niche offering of rakuten rewards be that would make me sign up for another program? julie: the interesting part of what we do is it runs the gamut of categories. we aren't just focused on

traditional retail categories. we, yes, have the apparel, health and beauty categories that folks are so interested in buying this time of year -- consumer electronics. but also verticals like travel, like consumer banking and financial products. given the fact that it is a one-stop shop, being able to w eigh the value of what brands are going to deliver across categories, it is particularly fascinating consumers in a way that spans the gamut that a single or rewards platform i not be able to do. tim: julie can what do you get out of the rakuten rewards program as a company? you have to entice people to use it. do you get paid by the retailer, or is the data so powerful that you can then make money selling it? julie: that's a great question, and it's a very simple model. we are highly protective of consumer data, and we are in no

way, shape, or form interested in using it for monetization. the model is entirely an advertising model whereby all of the brands and retailers with whom we work see our platform as a way to get access to shoppers who will shop more frequently and buy more when they get that cash back, which is effectively the permission to buy that they need. when they give us those advertising dollars, just like any media platform that would get advertising dollars, we simply pass that half of those dollars back to the shopper in the form of cashback. vonnie: we were talking earlier about the amount that somebody spends dictating how much they get back in rewards. you must have an average figure or even amine figure for the rakuten report -- even a mean figure for the rakuten rewards. julie: it is a very tough one, i'm afraid, but certainly what i think it speaks to is the fact

that it varies year by year end person by person. i did want to mention one more trend to you guys which is super interesting this year, which is that we are seeing still to this moment as we are monitoring real-time data that there's this fascinating trend happening where it's first me, then you season, where shoppers are shopping categories that are much less traditional giftable categories. they are very interested in areas like pet care, financial services, health and wellness, particularly cvs, walgreens. what we see is people out there because of concerns about potential economic trends, they are saying to themselves, i need to get myself shored up with these deals and my family shored up before we moved to gifting. that is likely to shift over a

little bit as we go into the weekend and cyber monday, but it is a particularly interesting trend of consumers interested in using this moment of a very high promotional, fre shippinge, cash-back stacked ability to do what is right for them and their family first. tim: one thing we talked about a lot is what traditional brick-and-mortar retailers have to do to get consumers in the door, given that it is so easy to buy some of the stuff online. what is the message that you have based on the data you see, what consumers are doing online, to retailers who are trying to figure out this on the general approach -- omni-general approach? julie: it's a great question where the consumer links the credit card on the site and you are able to achieve the same level of cashback online as when you are in-store and it automatically happens. that part of our business has

grown dramatically year-over-year. to answer your question, i think the reality is that we are dealing with a very value-seeking consumer who isn't just content with discounts and prices that a brick-and-mortar might be able to offer even during a time like black friday. they need to know that they are getting more. a lever like cashback enables these retailers to offer something more that gives the consumer permission to buy. when i will also say about retailers and brands is that there is certainly -- this is more just politically as an omni-channel event -- more holistically as an omni-channel event, there is democratization about where brands can be purchased by consumers. by that i mean retailers are starting to compete with the direct-to-consumer brands they sell in their stores because

those brands may be able to offer higher cashback. they may have a lever to do things like free shipping with the larger infrastructure they have. it is about figuring out what levers do you have and reusing them. tim: let's leave it there. rakuten rewards chief revenue officer joining us on this black friday. julie, thanks for taking the time. vonnie, did you travel for thanksgiving? vonnie: no, i traveled to my couch. i traveled actually to a restaurant in the borough of manhattan. tim: walk, take the subway. you weren't going to the airport. vonnie: right. tim: i was stuck in traffic getting out of the city. it's wild, every year i'm reminding myself you have to leave so early on thanksgiving. 90-minute trip turned into a three-hour trip. vonnie: oof. lucky for you you got to go back

to the city but everybody else. --before everybody else. tim: i beat the traffic. we will checking in with folks later on in the program and i want to talk about what corporations are doing when it comes to private travel. one of the most read stories is about boeing, of all companies, pulling back on corporate travel in the sense of those private jets. vonnie: when i found fascinating is that it has its own private fleet. bombardiers, 737s. you think of anybody is allowed to use private travel, it is a boeing executive. apparently the ceo had to use it just for security reasons. the new ceo has decided, nope, economy and economy class. it is perception, it is optics. tim: i think you hit the nail on the head. according to an aviation consultant, $15 million a year

for boeing to spend on travel with the private jets. that doesn't put a dent in the $58 billion debt load. vonnie: hit is really interesting that he's setting a tone. if management doesn't need to travel on these private jets sitting in a runway, you can't overdo it on your expenses. 17,000 people getting laid off wasn't tim one person -- tim: one person still flying private, mark zuckerberg. a little trip to mar-a-lago. we will check in with kurt wagner who covers all things meta platforms in the company formerly known as --

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vonnie: you are watching and listening to "bloomberg markets" on this black friday.

president-elect donald trump had dinner with meta ceo of mark zuckerberg at his mar-a-lago estate. the piston like prepares to return to the white house in 52 days now. we are joined by kurt wagner. do we know anything about the conversation? representatives for zuckerberg did let out a few comments. kurt they did:, they were very vague, saying it was an important time for innovation, one of those things they want to talk about. we can extrapolate from that a little bit to assume that they probably touched on ai, because this is something guys been a key priority for meta over the past year, year-and-a-half. they are investing aggressively in all types of ai products and features. there is a lot of concern about what the incoming administration might do in terms of regulation. i think that hint about innovation to me is a sign that ai was at least one of the many topics of conversation. tim: maybe i'm a cynic, but my

take away -- you know this better than i do -- was not that at all. my first reaction was like, mark zuckerberg wants to get on the trump administration's good side given what we have heard on the campaign trail. now that elon musk is there nonstop, we know that elon doesn't have a great relationship with mark zuckerberg, these guys are like nemeses. am i too cynical? kurt: note, i definitely think ther is a bit o-- no, i definitely think there is a bit of damage control. two years ago donald trump was suspended from facebook and instagram for two years and that created a huge issue. since then on the campaign trail he talked about wanting to keep tiktok around simply because he knew if tiktok was gone it would help facebook. he even insinuated he wanted to put mark zuckerberg in jail. there was a few month ago. we have seen mark zuckerberg

since the summer really say flattering things about donald trump, he called the president-elect before he was elected in the fall, now showing up at mar-a-lago for dinner . your instinct is spot on, which is that this is that the mulch was relationship for several years and it isn't mark zuckerberg's best interest that donald trump things of them at least as neutral so that he is not coming after him and coming after his businesses. vonnie: for sure, and he did make a comment after the first assassination attempt that seeing donald trump pumping his fist in front of the american flag was "one of the most badass things i've seen in my life." what does he do in terms of the company -- not mark zuckerberg, personally, he can blacklist him from mar-a-lago -- but he would need lina khan on board heard

the company. kurt: it depends on what you mean by hurt. facebook really got bogged down with all of these claims of russian interference in mark zuckerberg being summoned to dcf year to answer the questions. it's a lot of distractions. that is the kind of world that donald trump and congress could create for mark zuckerberg. they could make his life much less enjoyable. on top of that, elon musk is in the picture, and elon and mark zuckerberg are not friends, they have a very healthy rivalry. now you have the president's top advisor who is an anti-facebook guy. i think there is this potential threat to that the administration could make mark zuckerberg's path difficult if they want to. that is why you see him showing up to have dinner the night before thanksgiving. tim: kurt, there's is this idea -- we saw this a few month ago

in the vice presidential candidate debate with jd vance talking about censorship on social-media platforms and this idea of anti-conservative bias. what we tended to see is that facebook is a social platform is actually really good to conservatives in terms of the most prominent voices. they kept a lot of the traffic from the social platform. is there any credence to the idea that there is anti-conservative bias on these social platforms that zuck and company run? kurt: gosh, tim, we have been talking about this for years at this point, and it is always a perceived bias. no one has come out and shown real hard figures to say the companies are intentionally down-ranking someone singly because they are conservative or liberal. what i find very interesting is that ever since elon musk took over x, he has been the most

pro-trump owner of any social platform we have ever seen, and yet there have been no concerns about that. there has been no concerns on the others either that, hey, you are suppressing left-leaning voices or democrats. i find it very interesting that for years we heard about the anti-conservative bias when there was a perceived attack, and now when we have a ceo and owner who is very blatant and openly picking aside, no one seems to have an issue with that. it is a very interesting dynamic. i don't know if this narrative has died down a little bit on the facebook front, but now that trump is back in office i wouldn't be shocked if we hear this, but again. -- here this come up again. vonnie: the representatives for zuckerberg said the conversation was taking place at a crucial time for u.s. innovation. is there any chance that the two

have spoken about bytedance and tiktok? kurt: i'm speculating, but it seems logical that that would be top of mind. the january date for the potential ban of tiktok's a few months away. donald trump talk about it on the campaign trail and we know it matters a lot to meta. if tiktok is out of the picture, meta stands to benefit more than any company out there. i do have to imagine that that came up. it is probably a little bit of a tricky situation because mark zuckerberg has to sit and probably -- he can't say exactly what is on his mind for anticompetitive reasons. but the timing is such that it is hard to imagine it would be brought up. vonnie: thank you so much for following this closely for us. kurt wagner. we will be talking to him again no doubt. tim: take a look at the markets. we are seeing a day of buying for u.s. stocks on this holiday-shortened trading day. let's bring in jess minton, bloomberg news deputy team

leader for u.s. equities. let's give her this promotion whenever you are on. jess: thank you, i like that. we can go with that. tim: we are seeing optimism today. jess: volume is a big thing, too. if you use the wei function in the terminal, it gives you a sense of where volume is. it is a quarter lower that would have been the last -- tim: s&p 500 trading is 25% lower. unsurprising, right? jessjess: we are the only ones. paul sweeney was on early with me and i was filling in for tom keene. i want to point out small caps and the russell 2000 come because not only is it the last trading day of the week, it is the last trading day of the month. up 11%, it just briefly intraday today crossed its high, closing high from 21. it came just below that if you look at it the gip function

here. it keeps running up against the resistance but still trading around the all-time highs for the first time in three years. when you talk about the russell 2000, you need to point out the amount of zombie companies in the index. 38%, close to the all-time high you would've seen with companies during covid. very different than the s&p 600, another gauge for small-cap stocks. that has more profitable companies and that is at all-time highs, troo. vonnie: i wasn't quite aware of the number of zombie companies. jess, why is the market still on the same ideas? it seems like a calm day, therefore nvidia is up and bitcoin is up. jess: a lot of that has to do with what we have been seeing. chipmakers are higher with news out of washington. if you are looking at applied materials, bloomberg news did a report that additional u.s. curb

s on sales of chip technology to china may stop short of stricter measures than previously thought. when you think of companies like nvidia, which is the world's most valuable company, but it has a hefty waiting, up within 2%. even just 2% with a stock like i can swing things either. tim: the next catalyst that you and the team have an eye on? jess: jerome powell will be speaking at the "new york times" dealbook conference, the last we hear from them before the blackout week. vonnie: it's been a phenomenal fall into winter for surprises. a presidential election that looked like it wasn't going to be close and suddenly it was completely close. tim: keeps us on our toes. vonnie: jess menton, thank you so much for joining us in studio. jess menton of our equities

team. this is "bloomberg markets." ♪

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>> there you have it.

>> the markets closed. >> it is only 1:00. i used to do -- i was on the floor for a few years of the new york stock exchange and this was the day that was so fun because santa claus visited. already paid people brought their kids. there was hot chocolate everywhere. those of the rules of the new york stock exchange. the day after thanksgiving is a fun day. vonnie: santa claus, how could he visit in november? tim: they are little out of schedule there. he's got the time. vonnie: i was surprised by the statistic that volume is at 75% of the 20 day average because i would have thought it would have been less than that. that means that has been a fairly healthy rally. we've had the dow up .4%. the s&p up more than .5%. we have long said goodbye to the

6000 mark. the nasdaq was up .8%. tim: it looks like another record for the s&p 500 with today's close. we didn't close at a record for the russell 2000, but at one point, we were at an intraday record, the highest going back to 1979. vonnie: yes. let's take a look at some individual movers because it was a fastening session. we had the usual trump trade companies higher and some lower as well. msci, interestingly enough, it has been up and down. it was down 7% today on a day were some of the other chip companies were higher. it is going to have to get that working and get the market -- tim: you have smci down 7%. vonnie: also another chipmaker, micron, down another .3%. it was down much more than that

earlier in the session. the idea that perhaps there will be some curbs on ships going abroad, perhaps not as bad as expected and maybe there will not be extra. we have to remind everybody that all of this is forecasting we don't know what will happen next year. we are still 52 days away from the inauguration so whatever tweets and ideas come to the fore, it will happen. i wanted to mention one other decliner. adr's of bae systems, they were down the most in two years. bank of america analysts downgraded them because of doge. i find it hard to say. the department of government efficiency. it could result in contract changes. bank of america is taking this department of vivek and musk very seriously and saying that bae, and other european defense stocks could lose out on contracts and it might be time to sell. tim: we've got the decliners.

i will do a couple of gainers. just mentioned the idea of the chips up. semiconductor equipment makers rising after bloomberg reported additional u.s. curbs on sales of chip tech to china may stop short of the stricter measures previously considered. taking a look at tesla. shares in the green once again today. i am not so concerned about today's trade. i'm concerned about what happened over the last month. shares up close to 40% over the last month. today, notching another 3.7% gain to the upside. taking a look at some retailers out there on this black friday. shares of ralph lauren, no news in particular i can find. still finishing up close to 4%. also, have to take a look at shares of walmart on this black friday. in the green today, higher by about .7%. vonnie: a really fascinating day. we should point out crypto as well has been a huge mover.

back above $97,000. that did move some of the crypto stocks as well. not all of them. coinbase was a little lower earlier. that story will continue into next week. tim: let's take a look at what is happening in the bond market today. we did see yields across the board move lower. we saw the yield in the 10 year down about 7.2 basis points. we saw yields at the front end of the curb, the two-year yields moving lower by five basis points. vonnie: let's get to somebody that knows all about yields, joining us in studio. the director of global macro at fidelity management and research. we were saying earlier that this has been quite the fall and winter for global macro, particularly u.s. macro. there are a lot of surprises in a season where we were not sure there would be many surprises. >> it sure has. it is a pleasure to be here. really, the last four years has

been full of surprises. we are still dealing with some of the how to interpret market cycles in the aftermath of the pandemic and all the things that changed. two years ago with the inverted curve, expecting that recession. and here we are with the economy remaining quite resilient. inflation, at least the rate of inflation, getting closer to the fed's target, although it is being more stubborn in the last few months with the core pce now ticking higher to 2.8%. the earnings have come through and that is the most important thing. you ask anyone at fidelity, at the mothership, price follows earnings. earnings is what we are looking at an earnings season is pretty much over. 9% growth year over year. the growth trade for the calendar year will be around 10% it looks like this year. and expectations for 12% next year. that might come down a few

points. but if we are getting into an animal spirits cycle after the fairly decisive election and the new capital formation cycle begins, the ai boom already is forcing all companies to go into the capex mode. we will have to see if it happens. if that is the case, you can get a higher speed limit for the economy which means the economy can grow faster without inflaming the inflation rate. i think that is a great hope for this market. my biggest -- not concern, but one of the impediments next year is this is not like 2017. the first term of the president started. obviously, we had the tax cuts happening in 2017. that year was a very robust full market led by both earnings

growth and valuation expansion. but, rates were much lower. the fed was barely off zero back then. inflation was not a story. in 2025, that is a different landscape. so, one of the things that i look at is interest rates, the 10 year has behaved, it is 4.20. it was closer to 4.15 and 5% year ago. so far, so good there. occasional flareups in yields, i think, is likely to be not a bull market and are, but at least in -- ender, but at least and interrupt. tim: there are a series of policy proposals from the trump administration we got on the campaign trail. i'm wondering how you are factoring that into your analysis. it is the idea that if he goes through with these tariffs, that he announrlieth week, what could that do to inflation in the u.s.? and also, what about mass deportations?

whenever i talk about this, i say the human side of the story, putting that aside, and thinking about the economic effects of deporting millions of people over a short period of time, many of whom work in jobs at the u.s. i am wondering what you are looking at in terms of economic shocks there. jurrien: it is a concern. no one really knows whether the tariffs are going to be just a bat that the president carries around to try to get better deals. certainly, the announcements with mexico and the phone call with the mexican president kind of give an indication this is really to start negotiations for better trade deals. it of course is a risk because if importers have higher costs, the either need to pass those on to consumers or it gets into the profit margins. and then, it is a question of to what degree do other things offset it?

it remains unclear to what degree it would be inflationary and deportations would presumably be inflationary as well. if you think about what the fed and the economy has accomplished the last couple of years, with the great rate reset in 2022, the fed was trying to slay the inflation dragon which it has at least partially done. and it was trying to rebalance the labor market which was in overdrive back then. the economy when it shut down during covid, obviously many people left the labor force. and then when it reopened, those people did not return right away. there were a lot of job vacancies that were unmet. now, that supply has returned and immigration is part of that. so, the labor market is in perfect balance right now. it has reset itself not through layoffs but people coming back in. if you start deporting people who are working in the labor force, obviously you run the

risk that you then upset that balance. vonnie: if the market is only expecting two to three interest rate cuts next year, should be rethinking that in the sense that the fed should possibly get in front of some of this? tim: i think so. the fed has cut twice. i look at various iterations of the rule made famous by john taylor back in the early 1990's. no matter how you slice it, the fed is in the right place having cut rates a few times. the taylor rule completely supports lower rates than they were. but, going forward, it is by no means clear that a lot more rate cuts are in line. of course, when we started this year, the market was expecting seven rate cuts that just this about -- calendar year. a few months ago when we had the growth scare, it was down to a two handle on the terminal rate. now we've got a 66% chance of a rate cut in december.

i think the fed could go either way. the economy is obviously not falling off a cliff waiting for another rate cut, but my sense is that the fed was right to do what they've done so far, but i would hold some more rate cuts in reserve rather than giving them to the markets and running the risk that you have to take them back because i think one of the risks economically is that inflation went from 9% to 3%. from 2022 to now. core pce went from 6% to 2.8%. so, inflation is better than it was, but it is still above 2%. and often times, the pendulum has to swing all the way through to stay at 2%. so, if the economy now re-accelerates at a time when inflation has not yet been slayed, you run the risk that it then re-accelerates and then the fed is in a much more difficult posion. tim: i don't envy the job jay

powell has right now for many reasons. finally, switching gears a little bit, $7 trillion in cash on the sidelines right now, at least in money market funds, as of a couple weeks ago. where does that cash go and when? jurrien: i have been asked to question so many times, and my sense has been -- i follow this fairly, one of the big players in the money market fund industry. the way i look at the cash on the sidelines is i look at it as a percentage of the equity market cap. as a percentage of the market cap, it is around 10.5%, which is exactly in line of the historical average. so, there's a lot of cash, but equities are worth a lot, so how much comes out and couldn't move the equity markets is the big question. the caveat with the mountain of cash thing, first, it was during covid. money went into the money markets. people were panicking.

that truly was a flight to quality trade, which was then later reversed. of course, when the market was at a high. comes back in that new highs so it shows you the perils of market timing. this mountain of cash came out of the banks two years ago during silicon valley bank and banks paying half a percent. there is some cash there, maybe $1 trillion but not $7 trillion. vonnie: we got to the end of the answer. thank you, jurrien timmer. much appreciated. we will speak more about those mexico lines next. sheinbaum and trump speaking. we will be speaking with eric martin. ♪ at birth. but in parts of the world where the right medical care doesn't exist, children like nezifa suffer severe social stigma because of their cleft lip.

children like lexi struggle to speak and babies like cesar face malnutrition or worse. without surgery, some will die. children born with cleft conditions have nine times the risk of dying before their first birthday. those who do survive face extreme challenges. imagine not being able to eat, speak or live life to your fullest. imagine becoming an outcast even in your own family. together, we can change this. with your help. operation smile works to heal children born with cleft conditions. with volunteer medical teams in more than 30 countries worldwide. we provide free cleft surgery and care , including dentistry, speech therapy and more , so that children can breathe, eat and speak better and live life to the fullest.

we need you. there are still millions in dire need of healing. go to operationsmile.org today and become a monthly supporter for just $20.00 a month. any amount makes a difference. help create new smiles and new futures, but act now. children are waiting. let them know you care. go online to operationsmile.org to give monthly or call that' s. tim: welcome back to this special edition of bloomberg markets. i am tim stenovec alongside vonnie quinn.

we may be in new york but we've got a great team of reporters in washington, d.c. following everything that's happening not just in washington but on the island of nantucket and in mar-a-lago as well. because mar-a-lago is where the president-elect spent a lot of time. nantucket is where the current president was for the holiday. let's get to the latest from d.c. with eric martin. i do want to go back in time a little earlier the week and talk a little bit about the conversation that president-elect trump had with the president of mexico claudia sheinbaum, and get from you the different narratives that we heard from each of these folks. because we heard one thing from the president-elect about their conversation, we heard another thing from the president of mexico. how are you reading into it? eric: absolutely. this was kind of a shock on monday evening when we saw president-elect trump first post on truth social about the tariff threat for mexico as well as

canada and china. and we saw prime minister trudeau immediately on the phone with the president-elect. we didn't see the president of mexico claudia sheinbaum connecting with him until the afternoon on wednesday. then, we got this readout on truth social from the president-elect saying we had a wonderful conversation. mexico has agreed to close its border, essentially everything is great, and it is a complete league different tone from what we have seen just 48 hours earlier. we later saw a readout from the mexican president saying mexico does not agree with closed borders. wea re tried -- we are trying to address the migration issue through humanitarian and a helping hand to the people who are coming, as to treating it in a very humane way and for collaboration with the u.s.

finding jobs and opportunities for these people. so, a very different kind of description from both of these leaders as to what was agreed and what was understood by each side by the phone call they had on wednesday. vonnie: you spent a lot of time in mexico and on the trade beat, so you understand how these things work. tell us about her approach because she seems to be mirroring trump a little bit in recent days, bringing people on stage with her for example and saying we have a plan too and the u.s. will be her just as badly, if not worse from the imposition of higher tariffs. eric: absolutely. what we saw on tuesday in terms of the initial reaction from the mexican president was a message that i have really heard described by some mexican officials as aimed as a domestic -- aimed at a domestic audience. it is about defending mexico's national dignity and pointing out that mexico is a sovereign

country, that mexico has leverage, not just the u.s. and as the president of mexico said, if the u.s. applies a tariff, it will be applied by another tariff and another by each side, and and will develop this trade war which is ultimately not to the benefit of either side in terms of economic self-interest. now obviously, that is what the mexican president said. that is not a message that necessarily historically has always been one that has registered with president trump in the first term in terms of trying to inform in the way with the actual numbers are saying about the problem. because if we are looking at the numbers, the number of people arriving to the southwest u.s. border is currently in recent months has been the lowest it has been throughout the biden administration. about 100,000 people per month, which is down about 66% from december of 2023. before mexico made a greater

effort. so, mexico highlighting in part they've already been making an effort. it has been lowering the numbers and trying and part to use such an information campaign, and the persuasion campaign, to point out to president-elect trump the damage that, the self-inflicted wounds it would be for american consumers. people who buy things like pickup trucks. the mexican economy minister talk about the price of pickup trucks rising $3000 per vehicle on average if these tariffs were imposed. tim: break that down a little bit for us because when that was announced earlier this week, ord lower as well. given your experience in mexico and washington, d.c., what does our investing audios need to understand about the path of consumer goods which are at certain points built in mexico and then shipped to the united

states? what does it look like as a trade partner? eric: when i was covering the usmca negotiations or the nafta renegotiations in mexico in 2017 and 2018, part of the challenge is just the kind of mental gymnastics and math needed to figure out even how did these tariffs work when you have something like a chases for a vehicle that passes across borders several times in the manufacturing of that vehicle? so, you've got factories in south carolina, in alabama, and the u.s. south or even michigan where parts and where vehicles being assembled crosses the border several times. there was a question back then is will the tariff apply each time? how do you even calculate this? fortunately at the time, cooler heads prevailed and the u.s. did not withdraw from nafta as the president had threatened during

the campaign in 2015-2016. he sat down with the government of mexico and canada, and essentially renegotiated nafta even though he has touted usmca as a new deal. everybody involved with it recognizes it leans heavily and contains a lot of the concepts and the agreements from nafta from the early 1990's, although updated to today's realities. so, we've got a renegotiation of the usmca that by law is part of the usmca, actually revision is supposed to happen by 2026. each country has been debating how that looks like. but, president trump making clear even two months before he gets into office that he wants to see a lot of changes to the agreement that his own administration negotiated just 4, 5 years ago. vonnie: i am just curious because monterey is not far over the border and that is where a lot of factories are, including tesla.

how much of a chill is running through that city right now? eric: well, vonnie, certainly for the entirety of the mexican economy, as tim mentioned, the number of leaders who were flanking president sheinbaum on the stage, the morning press conference at the national palace on wednesday morning. and, i have been to monterey. i have spent a lot of time there. i can tell you there are people whose livelihoods have been improved by the economic opportunities that have been made available to people in the north of mexico in recent decades. monterey has the tech de monterrey which is considered kind of the m.i.t. of mexico that is graduating hundreds of thousands of engineers every year, many of whom go to work on some of these assembly lines. the biggest thing that people -- i think people they are want people in the u.s. to it if that is it is not just low wages, not

just a wage differential, but also a highly trained and highly educated workforce, particularly in the north of mexico, that has been integrated into this regional economy, trading more than $1 trillion a year between all the three countries in north america. tim: before we let you go, there's a big profile of robert f. kennedy, jr. in the new york times that i anticipate a lot of folks in d.c. are going to be coming -- combing over over the weekend. talking about his past, troubles he's had with the law, troubles he's had with alleged infidelity in marriages, and how he got to where he is today. now that matt gaetz is no longer up for his post, how do you and dissipate the nomination -- anticipate the nomination process for folks like robert f. kennedy, jr. and pete hegseth? eric: absolutely. this is something we have seen in several of the trump administration appointees and

nominations to this point, questions about their personal life and their history. certainly, the 53 senators that the republicans will have in that chamber when it comes to confirmation time help to curry a little bit of space in terms of potential to lose a couple of oats and still get somebody through the nomination process. but, this is something that will be watched closely in terms of how the personal lives and history of some of the people who are up for cabinet posts gets reflected in what comes out between now and the nomination confirmation hearings. tim: eric, we have to leave it there. vonnie: really good stories. tim: coming up next, more retail. ♪

vonnie: this is "bloomberg markets" this black friday with myself, vonnie quinn, and tim stenovec. ready set shop, the national retail federation saying almost 132 million people are planning to shop today alone, not even the weekend. joining us now is oliver chen, senior retail analyst at td cowen, covering the retail and luxury sectors. oliver, if i know you, you are out this morning at shopping malls and maybe some high streets, preparing on things to tell us. what did you see?

>> we were out at 7:00 a.m., and i am always excited to be in the stores. consumers are out and about and looking for value. big winners include walmart and costco. that is what we're watching. a little more cautious on apartment stores. there are great deals to be had, but shoppers are being selective and looking for the best deals. tim: are they finding them? are the risk factors? >> in some places. we have had a little tougher weather. i bought this shirt. apparel, seasonal goods, sweaters, and outerwear, there are better deals to be had. we think margins will be flat to slightly lower given that this is true. vonnie: spoke to someone today who said they could not figure out what was going on. there was not a lot of signage, and the signage that was there had smaller print.

i was at macy's in herald square, and there was a lot of signs. was not clear how much individual pairs of shoes, boots, hats, or shirts actually was. the retailers not recognize that that is a problem? >> what you are speaking about makes a ton of sense in terms of shoppers wanting a better experience. as we look more broadly, less can be more. sometimes less inventory, fewer items, cleaner stores, and service is important. you think about amazon and tiktok retail, how convenient everything is digitally, so the big problem is getting people in the stores. retailers are on a journey. we saw some pretty clear deals this morning in terms of 30% to 50% off. also this year, deals started earlier, something that happened, too.

in many cases, we notice deals were better online. vonnie: really? ok. >> i do not have the trend yet, but i think it will be a lot more convenient. the future of retail is about everything being everywhere at once and being convenient. and as we know, mobile is so important. tim: you have to have a drink anytime someone says on the channel -- omnichannel. walmart, old navy, nordstrom, you mention, but why were you cautious with kohl's and others? >> at walmart, you are getting everyday low prices, plus discretionary items. and we saw good execution in televisions and the unit games there. walmart is getting a wealthier consumer, too. at nordstrom rack, they are a

lot more inventory in. and the whole off-price sector has been very attractive. we are a little more cautious on target. i am hopeful for target. i have gotten a lot of stuff there myself personally. but they have had issues in terms of traffic. we're also excited about the beauty category at large, hot items like sephora and others. we noticed slower traffic at macy's. i want department stores to win. in the store, you did not notice many people there. vonnie: by 10:00, there was a good crowd at the one at herald square. i was there braving the cold, and it was freezing. i got research for the show. next time i will buy something warm.

you talked about target and how you bought stuff there and these of the retailers like walmart that are doing it right. what happens of tariffs are introduced next year? should shoppers be buying out the stores at the moment to get nontariff or lower tariffed items? >> the answer is yes. tariffs happen, and it is a big concern for the retail industry. mathematically, it could hit earnings-per-share by mid to high single digit, 9% more hits. a lot of it will have to be passed on to consumers. so that is going to happen. about one-third of supplies, for example, at walmart are acquired from abroad, so a big percentage of your cost of goods sold will be impacted. we will see. the good part is retail has gone through a lot of supply chain issues. so they have experience in terms of facing this. that said, the consumer is

stretched and feeling pain and only coming out for deals. that is impacting target, too. they are coming out for seasonable moments and deals, otherwise trying to delay. so we will watch this issue manifest, and consumers may or may not be willing to take these price increases, which could have the unintended consequence of inflation. tim: always look forward to cyber monday and the numbers you are looking for, we already have some numbers from adobe. we will be watching those. what are you going to watch for? >> we're looking at a plus 7% growth rate. our top idea is walmart. they had the marketplace down and also have digital advertising. walmart growing online in the double digits 15% to 20% plus, that will continue. also tiktok, don't forget about tiktok, shein and temu.

these are taking share from traditional u.s. retail. we need people that go to stores. i mean, i am addicted to tiktok, but we need people at the stores. vonnie: oliver chen, we will follow your lead. thank you so much. >> thank you. happy holidays. happy black friday. vonnie: much appreciated. oliver chen, senior research analyst at td cowen. tim: ok, so there is an app that allows you to earn bitcoin. it is called lolli, a rewards application that gives bitcoin in cash back rewards when you shop online at one of the nearly 2000 retailers they partner with, including macy's, alto beauty, and many more. alex adelman is the ceo of lolli, good to see you this afternoon. how does this work? i have seen bitcoin rewards

programs in the past which have not panned out. how does lolli work? >> we have been around since 2018, so we have been through a lot of different bull and bear cycles. it is simple, we partner with merchants, some of the biggest in the world, and we give rewards when you shop online or in store at those merchants, sites or stores. vonnie: how do you price them? the price of bitcoin is a little volatile. how do you decide how much you will give in rewards, and who pays for that? >> bitcoin is divisible, they had their own pricing, and we give fractions of a bitcoin. a percent of every cell come upwards of 30% back, on average of 70 prints and back purse -- 70% back per scale. when you shop at these merchants, you get that bitcoin back. you get it through a wallet, and

you can move that into any coinbase to count, change, cold storage wallet, whatever. your bitcoin is your bitcoin. tim: i was referring to one that was a little different, a rewards credit card, which obviously blew up about two years ago during the crypto winter. how did you guys whether the crypto winter, and how did you see activity on the platform change depending on price? >> we keep a very safe -- it is a very different business model from lending out bitcoin. a lot of the previous cycles were taking bitcoin and lending it out, and there is a lot of counterparty risk when you do that, both in traditional finance and more risk in the crypto decentralized finance. what we do is simple, we keep your bitcoin safe, you are welcome to take it out. your bitcoin is your bitcoin, your keys.

we keep it simple. we do not trade bitcoin or anything like that. when you have earned $15 in bitcoin, you get $15 in the bitcoin. very simple. our users have loved lolli since 2018. our merchants have left lolli. we have some of the biggest merchants in the world, over 1500 merchants and 50,000 stores across the u.s. we have 6, 7 years of experience giving people free bitcoin, since bitcoin was at $4000. you can imagine how happy those users are. vonnie: yeah, not sure it is free that coin, but we can get to that in a second. urious, how do you get it from one place to the next? is it a mathematician that does the fractions and puts it in another balance sheet or do you have storage? does it pass through your platform in some way? >> we use a third-party secure

storage. we keep it very safe for you. we encourage users to transfer bitcoin over to their accounts and to keep their own bitcoin if they would like or treat us as they would an exchange to hold their bitcoin for them. yeah, we keep it very safe and simple for people. vonnie: is there a charge for storing it? who is this third-party? >> we do not disclose our third-party, but some of the most trusted third parties in the world that have been around for a very long time. so yeah, we keep things very safe. tim: we are on bitcoin $100,000 watch at this point. seeing the price of crypto move higher after it was clear the president-elect would win the election earlier this month. bitcoin is now at just over $97,000 per bitcoin. what you think the trump

administration will do when it comes to crypto? >> we have a very bitcoin and crypto friendly administration coming in. no matter what your politics are, we do see that this administration has been very pro-crypto throughout the election process and even in the last two weeks since the election, what they have come out and said. so we are anticipating extremely favorable regulatory environments over the next two to four years. gensler has already resigned. we are expecting a very friendly administration commonly. so the general sentiment across crypto companies is that there is going to be more -- less gray area. so what we have been frustrated within the space for the last four years is there has been no regulatory clearing, a complete gray area on what you can and cannot do. we have had a very easy time,

but other companies have not. so what i think we will see is more crypto companies built in the u.s., the u.s. will be a hub of innovation with this new administration, and we will get more clarity, which we are very much looking forward to peer tim: we should note that gensler is not out of the position yet. he has said he will step down from the agency in january. vonnie: exactly. the fact that we're going to get a new sec chair and even more clarity or court decisions surrounding the currencies, does not mean the price of bitcoin will go up necessarily. would it be better to just keep money? tim: [laughs] >> glad you said that. i think we have a very similar vantage point to what is happening right now. we are seeing companies like microstrategy in countries like el salvador set the standard for

buying bitcoin as a strategic reserve currency. if you study basic game theory, you believe and you will see that there will be more companies and the more countries in 2025 adopting bitcoin as their bitcoin reserve currency. vonnie: game theory? >> the snowball will keep going and bitcoin, the influence will keep growing. we have already reached $30 billion in inflows, and we will see even more in countries. vonnie: el salvador is doing it. tim: we will see what taxpayers think about a strategic point reserve. alex adelman at lolli, thank you. ♪

tim: welcome back to a special edition of "bloomberg markets." i am tim stenovec, and that is

vonnie quinn. we are at bloomberg headquarters in new york city. officials projecting the busiest thanksgiving travel season yet. still waiting on final numbers. tsa screen more than 4.2 million passengers in two days alone. joining us to share travel trends for the holiday season is clint henderson, the points guy/the managing editor. have things gone off without a hitch so far? >> remarkably, i was a little nervous about yesterday with storms across the country, the airlines recovered quickly. i feel like all the staffing moves they made over the past couple of years are starting to pay dividends. a lot of airlines have invested in technology after spectacular meltdowns. that is paying dividends. i'm still worried about air traffic control staff shortages, something i am watching closely, especially in newark. other than that, really smooth. vonnie: why are there shortages? >> it is a job that is really

hard and stressful, especially in the northeast region, the busiest part of the country. newark, jfk, laguardia, imagine the number of planes coming in and out of the area. one of the reasons we have seen an issue with atc's is because they moved newark control to philadelphia to try to ease the training issue. 24 atc workers move to the philly area. it will take some time, long-term solution to a long-term problem. this has been a problem for years. apparently, a bunch of the people they trained dropped out because it is too stressful, so that is a little bit up the back seat there. tim: shifting gears, now is a time of year when the airlines update rewards programs. delta taking a little bit of heat for changing its rewards program around. end of the day, are these

rewards programs actually still worth it given what you get as a reward and how hard it is to achieve certain levels of status? >> you put your finger on the raging debate in the points and miles world. a lot of coworkers are giving up on top-tier status. you are not getting upgrades that you used to get. there's more people, seems like, in the top tears. the juice is not worth the squeeze. that said, i will keep delta indictment and american airlines platinum. -- delta diamond and american airlines platinum. but it will not continue long-term because it has gone extensive. it is just getting harder to redeem points and miles, and you have to be more aggressive and more invested into how to maximize it to squeeze out the perks. what i will say, we are still seeing a ton of deals. there is still sign-on bonuses and still amazing business-class

redemptions you can it on programs like air france or air canada. we do see those unicorn fares, even in the u.s. program. for me, that is why i'm still all-in, even though i am not getting upgraded on most of my flights these days. vonnie: what about hotels? some of the branded hotels are perhaps worth signing up to the rewards programs for because you may eventually get a night for free, but for some, you have to spend a lot of time in them. >> yeah, and the truth is, four seasons, some of these other programs -- vonnie: do not even have loyalty programs, right? >> exactly. two how do you know that? pretty impressive. >> that is why my team focuses on hyatt, hilton, and ihg, and marriott, because we know we're going to get something for all those stays we are putting in.

but world of hyatt, timmy, gets the gold crown, because i really do take care of their best cost desk the world of hyatt -- the world of hyatt, to me, gets the gold crown because they really take. care of the customers you can stay at a hyatt anywhere in the world for 30,000 points, and that is really valuable to me. tim: hotels, still some value. my problem with the airline loyalty programs is if you get to the next level in something, it often means you can just check another bag. i'm not seeing the actual value here. does not seem like you're being treated different, not getting space at the front of the plane. it is kind of a joke now. >> yeah, so it is a really big problem for the last-minute business travelers. if you are flying delta, for example, hub to hub, you will not even get a main cabin seat

because those are sold. that is not just coach. i have seen upgrade list set 50 people, 55 people. yes, it is the truth that if you want first-class these days, you have to by first-class. even great global status on most airline programs, if you are booking and month out, you will still be able to get extra legroom seats, extra luggage allowance, early boarding, and upgrades, so there is still some value, but it is getting harder. tim: there is a possibility. i want to talk about what 2025 is looking like. seems like this year and last year were huge for americans traveling to and from asia. a lot of folks and colleagues making some big trips to japan and the like. what is hot come 2025? >> japan remains hot. in fact, that is the one part of the world that i am not seeing a

lot of deals. i am seeing $500 round-trip coach fares readily, but not seeing those to japan these days -- seeing those to europe. australia is also hop you do you want to go where the u.s. dollar is stronger, especially if you find a decent priced ticket. i am going back to japan but using points and miles for my trip. you have to be smart. vonnie: so we need to know more detail. where? which carriers? >> i used alaska miles to book a new taiwanese airline, starlux. business-class, 70,000 miles one way, then american airlines miles to book japan airlines for 60,000 miles in the business-class. the deals are out there, but you have to hunt and pick and educate yourself on points and miles. but the deals are there. tim: i have tried to do things i

have seen online on sites like yours, ok, sign up for this plan because then you can redeem miles for this mistake here, but i have never had any luck doing that. i do research, still no flights. what is the secret? >> the secret is flexible calendars, flexible dates. if you want to travel when every other family wants to travel for spring break, you will probably not score. but if you can hunt and peck and find that ability, things like air france, klm, air canada, you can usually find availability, just sporadic. you have to really hunt. the other thing is there's these new points search startups, like point.me that you can find in big sweeping searches at the calendar, find those dates with unicorn availability. philip up how do you find -- vonnie: how do you find some

$500 europe trips? >> regularly. there is a black friday cell right now from american airlines, to london for under $500. from charlotte. vonnie: but it costs $800 from new york to charlotte. >> but they are available from new york to london under $500. vonnie: i just need to up my times. tim: what about warm places to go as it gets cold outside, a good christmas holiday, early part of january? >> hot tip, the places that were the hottest coming out of the pandemic, so florida, hawaii, las vegas, those are on sale now. maui, i regularly see under $300 round-trip tickets, but the problem there is hotels are still expensive. but there are deals to be had to

places maybe you did not get to go to right outside of the pandemic because they were so expensive, including in hawaii. tim: clint henderson, managing editor at the points guy. i got those united points, feel like they are not worth anything because i can't never find a flight. vonnie: united, i can manage to get a shannon flight. tim: what is your next trip? vonnie: i would like to go to berlin, never been and used to speak german. don't know if i still do. tim: when you get there, have a couple beers and speak german, no problem. vonnie: thank you for having me on this special "bloomberg markets." tim: thanks for staying up late, been up since the early hours. happy thanksgiving and happy holidays, everyone. for vonnie quinn, i am tim

stenovec, this special edition of "bloomberg markets." ♪

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