the euro and future -- and futures fall as they say they

will not accept ultimatums over their budget. mailed and we are committed to reduce deficits. >> joe biden signs a sweeping pardon for his son, reversing his stance. and carlos taveras quits's to fantasy -- quits stellantis and happy monday. equities and brinkmanship.

.10% after gains last week aired futures flat and s&p futures lower by .2% and nasdaq futures looking to drop 42 points. nonfarm payrolls is arguably the data point of the week. you are seeing selling pressure across u.s. treasuries now with yields up and price down on the u.s. 10 year and you can see what's happening in terms of the euro-dollar currently 105. you can tie that to france but also strong dollar. 150 on the japanese today giving up some of those gains. governor ueda giving some commentary in a newspaper over the weekend suggesting he is still open to the prospect of another hike in december.

brent currently up .6% and france's finance minister has told us he refuses to accept le pen's demands for budget changes saying the got to market jitters with amid concern over a potential government collapse in france. they spoke to us exclusively. >> we respect each and every member of parliament and every person in france, whatever they decided to vote on but it was my responsibility as a finance minister to commit to the target we decided to have at the beginning of our mandate not only for france or the government but it is now needed in order that europe remain good and for that we need all

political leaders to be responsible. >> does that mean you can kept this deficit target or do you believe it has to be 5.5 or perhaps higher? >> our commitment to reduce the deficit towards 5% in 2025 and towards 3% in 2028 nine is not an option but something we are very carefully looking at. >> it means that every time that we make adjustments in the budget we compensate with saving and new measures. it's clearly an important point to underline. >> that was our exclusive interview with the french finance minister and let's bring

in caroline, who conducted that study out of paris. they have made concessions and what did he tell you about whether or not further consent -- further concessions are coming. it seems like they have already done concessions and do not want to do more and they have repeated several times they do not wish to be blackmailed and will not accept alternate terms from le pen and le pen has set a deadline of monday, probably mid afternoon to see if she is actually going back on a vote of no-confidence, which could potentially lead to a government collapse as soon as wednesday. we will see how this pounds out. clearly michel barnier has repeatedly said he has already done's lots of concessions on prices a love electricity and

the reduction of social contributions and even on pensions he has done's that are going to rise as soon as january. marine le pen once more but they don't want more concessions because it has already going to cost 10 billion euros and they were planning to save 60 billion euros in this budget so clearly the savings need to come from somewhere. >> what are you and the team watching for next? and how does this unfold from here. >> there will probably be a vote on the social security part of the budget which includes everything on pensions and also on drug reimbursement which is something le pen also wants to change and if there is no majority then the prime minister will have to use his article of the constitution to send a vote

of no-confidence the it whether the national rally actually accepts some compromise later today. they are going to have a meeting with their lawmakers. there are 100 20 lawmakers from the national rally in the assembly and probably around 2 p.m. french time and then we will find out for what they will vote but for this motion of no-confidence to to make the government collapse you also need the support of the socialists because they have lawmakers as well so if they do not support this no-confidence barnier will stay in place and what's interesting as well is that he also opened the door to perhaps the socialists rather than just discussing with marine le pen, which they said they do not want to do for anymore. perhaps this could be the way out for michel barnier.

>> excellent with that exclusive. it could be a make or break week for this french government. let's bring in bloomberg's strategist and details in reaction. we got to a spread of french over german debt last week what do you expect the market reaction to be to the development we have seen out of paris over the last 48 hours? >> bond traders think it is an early christmas present. they low volatility when it's created by the bond market and what is interesting now for them is that french yields are already above portuguese yields and they are putting in that now so it's an all-around play. they are under per no longer just about what's happening with germany and that gives added fuel to any downside bets so

traders are pretty excited. they see some negative news coming out of france so will be taken to the wire. plenty of chances for them to use the futures market which is maybe a little bit less liquid than usual. so we will be looking at that. we have not seen that since the debt crisis. bond traders are pretty 100 basis points detroit is caring more about the jobs data or central banks this week? >> it is more about the central banks. that is pretty much in the market already is it more about will they go ahead by 25 basis points and it looks as though the market is getting close to pricing that in but we have the

bank of japan and at looks as though it could be a rate hike as well but in the space of 24 hour from the bank of japan and that sets up next week as being exciting as well so central banks is the big deal. jobs is all up to say and jerome powell speaks this week. >> excellent analysis on what's happening and looking ahead to the rest of the week. let's see how asian markets are faring with avril hong in singapore. expectations building again in china it seems. >> if you look at the factory activity indicators, they seem encouraging. but looking at the currency reaction it seems like a bit of a negative reaction given the dollar strength against the backdrop of asian currencies

coming on the back foot today and though there are factors that typically support these currencies and you just talked about how that the boj got this. we talk about how they are nearing rate hikes and how the yen is faring. it is leading to the weakest level against the greenback since july despite the expansion and factory activity for the second month and encouraging signs in the chinese economy and some are saying the private numbers are because of the frontloading so keep that in mind. take a look at what we are saying and asian stocks as we have the tech names doing well and chinese stocks have paired some earlier gains and you get the sense that ferber -- that for there to be a convincing trip >> thank you. now to a major story that's broken. the stellantis seat over how to

stop weakening sales and a stocks slump. let's bring in our transport reporter, danny lee. why is he out? >> i think there will be no love lost between the unions and the suppliers who will be chairing the fact that he is gone and the board decided they are fed up now of the challenges they are facing and particularly how to grapple with slumping sales -- at a share price that has dropped this year and the warning signs that had been coming through about earnings of late and all the upheaval happening around this recently, including the loss of a chief financial officer so the board and the meeting has come to a head with him leaving and

finding a replacement will be critical as they face quite a dire outlook help right the ship maestro. >> stellantis looking for a new maestro and leadership out of that automaker. and here's what else to be thinking about and wednesday we are talking to the central banks. building a picture of the u.s. and connie as we lead up to the nonfarm payrolls and on thursday it is the opec-plus meeting that was delayed by five days. we will see to what extent there is alignment or fractures amidst that grouping around where to go next with oil surprise -- supplies into the market and on

friday it is the big one on the data front with the nonfarm payrolls dropping that could well tie and expectations around where the fed goes next markets expect a probability that they will cut again later this month with about a 6% chance. and coming up, joe biden plans to visit angola, the first u.s. president to set but on the continent since 2015. we go to rolando to bring you the details next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> joe biden will visit angola the first week of december, honoring his pledge to visit africa just weeks before leaving office and the trip will be his

only visit to the continent during his time as president as he seeks to deepen the u.s. commitment to effort us now. what can we expect from the visit and explain the timing around this just weeks before biden leaves the white house. >> good morning to you from rwanda. this is something that president biden promised early in his administration and the initial trip earlier this year have been sidelined due to the hurricane response so clearly this is a priority for the ministry should to fulfill this pledge and this is just as much about the past as it is about what they are hoping to be in the future and the and showcase the evolving relationship between the u.s. and angola, which was one of the major hubs, but it's also about

hopefully showcasing the broader strategy around the economic development and priorities of the u.s. and angola and we have heard from the u.s. that just over a few years ago they promised to invest $55 billion into sub-saharan africa and they are about 80% of the way there and ticketing three angola was the fourth biggest trading partner so it's strategically important for both sides but what we need to talk about is the main show and really the anchor for the broader u.s. strategy is this corridor or railway linking the copper belt winek and it is keyed to the future electric vehicle transition because of cobalt and copper and a plethora in the u.s. sees this as an opportunity to support investment back into

this railway and also helpfully hope angola diversify and we have heard from the president that this country has relied for years on just oil production and they are trying to diversify their economy away from that so hopefully this is an opportunity to showcase that angola is open for business but also that angolans can invest in the u.s. so they are seeing this is a two way opportunity and we will see biden meet with the president and make a visit to the corridor and we are anticipating more and more pledges and hopefully some memorandum -- memoranda of understanding signed in the next few days. >> you talk about the strategy around this. and to what extent is it pushing back on china and its role in the government part of that strategy? >> it is key to this and i think if you take a look at angola

just in terms of being indebted to china it is one of the most indebted african countries to china and a lot of the partnership and relationship between china and angola in the past has been investment into various infrastructure but president biden himself has criticized for what he sees has been saddling developing countries with financial burdens so the u.s. will hopefully present a different kind of relationship and strategy to what we have seen in china but we should know angola is not saying they are choosing sides and they have a long history with china and russia so that relationship remains intact but what they told us on a call is that they are not forcing countries to choose but instead giving countries it shows and hoping that if there are more countries thing they can demand

more and we will see whether or not that actually pans out, though. jennifer zabasajja in angola ahead of biden's visit to that country. and joe biden has signed a sweeping pardon for his son, reversing his stance that he would not use his executive powers to do so and let's bring in bloomberg's bill going back on this pledge around his son? basically trying to make the case that politics infected the process and decision about whether to go after hunter biden and for these attacks and gun charges and so basically taking on an argument that i think donald trump and some of his republican supporters have said all along, which is they felt

like the justice system was politicized against them and president biden now saying the decision to go after hunter biden was a political decision that affected the department of justice so one difference is hunter biden pled guilty and had been convicted colluded in the pardon so it was not just a matter of accusations. the justice system had found him guilty and he faced up to 17 years in prison although that kind of sentence was unlikely but it is something that comes after joe biden had said for months that he would never do it so you are hearing criticism at this point from republicans and some democrats about this decision in the final weeks of joe biden's presidency. >> and of course some of those republicans were quieter when pardon a whole list of people himself and has suggested he may

even pardon others. when it comes to what we hear on social media taking them at the bricks nations around the use of the dollar what are we hearing and what has the market impact been. >> president trump warning those countries against moving away from the dollar focused on and have repeatedly said they would hit countries that try to limit their use of the dollar and other for other purposes, saying those countries would face tariffs. the reality is that although they have discussed moving away from the dollar they have really made no progress on coming up with an alternative so it's an odd threat to make but i do think it shows his focus on the dollar and his concern that

countries are looking to alternatives to the greenback at this point. >> in the dollar is surging today up .4%. thank you for the details and context indeed. the holiday shopping season has started. u.s. customers open their wallets for products. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> welcome back and here are other stories. they have launched airstrikes. a civil defense group says at

least 25 people have been killed and a breakaway al qaeda faction captured a city in russia and iran have greeted their support for serious president. george's president is defying the ruling party plan. right police fired tear gas and water cannons to disperse the demonstrators and that protest was sparked by the decision to delay talks on joining the european union until 2028. and ireland is heading for a return of the coalition government led by the party of the prime minister and the two of those parties announced dietz meaning they will need the support of a smaller party to get to the 88 needed for a

majority. and in romania the ruling social democrats are poised to win elections according to preliminary results and the incumbents have about 24% of the vote as opposed to 18% of the others. in the nato member state was on age after a french independent candidate securities talk victory in the first round of ballots and the french finance minister says his government will not be blackmailed. and more from our exclusive interview and market analysis at a big vertical week for france next. this is bloomberg. it's our son, he is always up in our business. it's the verizon 5g home internet i got us. oh... he used to be a competitive gamer but with the higher lag, he can't keep up with his squad. so now we're his “squad”. what are kevin's plans for the fall? he's going to college. out of state, yeah. -yeah in the fall. change of plans, i've decided to stay local.

oh excellent! oh that's great! why would i ever leave this? -aw! we will do anything to get him gaming again. you and kevin need to fix this internet situation. heard my name! i swear to god, kevin! -we told you to wait in the car. everyone in my old squad has xfinity. less lag, better gaming! i'm gonna need to charge you for three people.

>>. good morning and this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. the euro and french on futures fall as they tell us the government will not accept ultimatums over budget. >> we will take into account what is changing but we will not be blackmailed and we are committed to reducing deficits. >> joe biden signs a sweeping pardon for his son, reversing his previous stance just weeks before leaving office and carlos taveras quits stellantis in a dispute with the board over how to steer the troubled carmaker away from weak sales and a stock slump. you should be bracing for a after a week of gains last week for european stocks in french

politics will be in focus with ftse 100 futures flat nasdaq 100 futures pointing lower currently by 47 points. the focus is on strong dollar and higher yields and the japanese yen. yields up .5% and self out of the u.s. friday. 150 on the japanese yen, a move of .5%. you had comments from the governor of the bank of japan suggesting the data is getting closer to allowing them to hike again and that possibility seems to be in focus for december 18 and brent crude up .7%, so a move higher for oil. france's finance minister has told bloomberg his government is open to negotiations over the

country's budget but will not be blackmailed. >> this government has clearly demonstrated its willing to budget through evolution in the budget and let me remind also that the debate is ongoing and we have to wait until the end of this debate but as you said, this is a critical time. we have the arguments and the fundamentals and we have the perspective to reduce public spending and it is important for france in europe. so let's remind the policy leaders in france that we have a powerful responsibility and this includes adopting and passing a budget. >> does that the -- mean there will be more compromise and concession?

>> the french government does not. it is looking at the parliamentary debate and respecting each and every debate that leads to an evolution. we will take into account what is changing but we will not be blackmailed because we are committed to reduce the deficit. i understand you are willing to perhaps compromise but marine le pen once specific concessions including that all pensions be indexed on inflation as soon january and also wants the government to give up this plan to abandon some drug reimbursement and on these two topics is there any way to have more concessions from the government? >> let's not just focus on that because as you know it is not enough. for a vote of confidence to be adopted at the french parliament you would need to have the

socialist party and other parties to vote with the far right parties so we would not only be the responsibility of marine le pen's party but a french socialists and ecologists , people who are willing to propose to her to vote together. and it would be a bad cynically fish single -- bad signal politically and economically. >> are you trying to negotiate with the socialist party and the national rally? >> we are not focused on with whom we negotiate or not your the government is a government of dialogue and respect. this budget has been construction and is not a result of just a government project but is evolving within the days and the weeks of the parliamentary debate and we will still be open but not to blackmailed. >> that was our exclusive

interview with the french finance minister and it was conducted over the weekend. more on how to react to france as we look at the market reaction pronounced last week. kevin, great to have you. what is your base case for how this story evolves in the days ahead? >> good morning. it is not an easy one. 2024 was the year of the general inactions and that was true across the world and 2025 will be the year when those promises get confronted with financial markets and i think france is ahead in terms of conundrums and that's what we are seeing and clearly the context is difficult and we do not expect the situation to resolve any time soon and there is no strong majority in parliament and the

government is fragile so in terms of sequence either budget gets approved and voted or than the french government imposes some form of executive or financial order for 2025 and then we get this no-confidence vote next week >> where it is a no-confidence vote and hotlink of the government leave the spread? we got to 90 basis points last week before it retraced to about 18 by friday. how far do we get about 100 if the government collapses? >> the sequence was starting with a political crisis and we thought that last human you had the snap elections and then you had a financial crisis and we tend to think is that when you're seeing the spread moving

from 40 basis points up to 80 basis points as we saw during the summer and the past week and now we have a budget crisis and the question is will it lead to an institutional one? clearly the main stress would be if mr. macron would be resigning and then we would have another lending period because the parliament cannot be enacted until mid 2025 and i would think that would push things north of 100 basis points. >> north of 100 if micron resigns so that is a risk of the markets need to be keeping an eye on. talk to us about when you would start to see value in this french debt market and what would draw you in and what level of yield would make this attractive? >> it's a good point you are making because are we talking on the thing climbing higher and higher but on the

evolution of bond yields they have been going lower since the calling of snap elections in june so for now i don't think that financial markets are stressed or the meager 3% or even below that yield to maturity you are getting on the french 10 year is particularly attractive apart from that. collects you are seeing opportunities in the equity markets and stock markets of france. where is the valuation and opportunity there? >> clearly on the one side we are not seeing a strong bull case for french assets given this potentially difficult trajectory ahead of us but on the equity markets we are seeing some form of widespread pessimism and some french assets are clearly trading at a discount if i'm looking at visible segments, visible teams, notably in aerospace, where you

are comparing boeing and others, you are seeing discounts of 30% to 40% on price-earnings and you name it. so now could be the time to start slowly on a step-by-step basis starting to reengage on european assets and that's true across sectors. these valuation gaps we are seeing in materials and industrials and many sectors. >> start to reengage with some parts of this equity market and it is a valuation story. we obviously have a challenged growth environment, possibly lower rates. what does that mean for european banks? >> when i mentioned that we would start to be looking at some european assets and french assets, we are looking at much

other for sectors and stocks which are less sensitive to the economic cycle. and clearly the banking sector does not fall under this category. it is often used as a growth proxy and that is one reason to be cautious. we are not expecting them to be like that so that's one reason to be cautious. and very often those banks do not fear well when this political risk is grinding higher in the third is lower interest rates. clearly it's true that we are not counting on fiscal spending to be doing much of the support in terms of economic growth and that means the european central banks will have to be doing most of the heavy lifting and this means lower interest rates and not necessarily a good

environment for banks so several reasons to be cautious on the banking sector. >> what is your projection around ecb rates into 2025? >> the key question is what will happen before the end of 2024. markets are expecting these cuts with a relatively high probability for cuts for the next meeting and we will begin the more conscious camp with 25 basis points seeming much more probable for the coming ecb meeting and all of this bringing policy rates down to 1.75% through 2025 but i think the path is important and there is no reason for the ecb to accelerate in terms of lowering interest rates. >> keep an eye on the view of 175 towards the indy of 2025.

kevin steering clear of french debt for now but finding opportunities in european and french equities on the valuation story. and french president emmanuel macron in saudi arabia today as part of a two day visit as sales and geopolitical tensions will feature in his itinerary. this is his first visit to the kingdom since the killing of jamal khashoggi in 2018 at the saudi consulate in istanbul. volkswagen workers plan to stage walkouts today after labor leaders and management failed to reach an agreement over how to cut costs and vw's management says the company needs to shut down three german factories and lay off thousands of workers but representatives are planning to keep plans open. we will keep a conversation with

the cofounder and ceo of robin ai and that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> welcome back. the legal profession. robin ai is focusing initially on contracts, the core instruments of legal services. i am joined by richard robinson. it's a business that's backed by the likes of paypal to name a few of the investors. how much demand are you seeing for your products and services ross the legal space and what is the outlook next year? >> we are seeing a lot.

before chatgpt we were seeing growth but now we are seeing more and we expect to grow faster this year than last year, which is remarkable even for a company like we are. >> are you able to give us a dollar number in terms of who you are targeting for revenues for the business? >> we crossed the $10 million mark this month and we expect to triple that number next year, which historically is impressive if a company at scale can double and that puts itself in the top decile of growth companies that we think we can grow even pat -- even faster. which parts of the legal ecosystem are you targeting. how are they creating efficiencies? >> we work with the world's biggest companies in the reason is they spend the most on legal

services where and private equity they spent something like 1% of all assets under management on legal services so that is a huge growth sector for us and we have customers in that space and enterprise customers as well that are all customers of ours so spending billions globally on legal services and that's where we are expecting to see more demand and highly regulated industries. >> it is highly regulated and you are expanding globally. which parts of the legal system are you expecting to expand into and what does robin ai look like in five years? >> eventually we want to build a tackle every single legal problem. we are building an ai legalist system anyone should be able to use but we have started with contracts because it is the

biggest segment of all legal services spend but we will graduate to tackle things like litigation, consumer issues like buying and selling a house and eventually ai will take on all of the heavy lifting. >> so we might get our own ai legal assistance at some point, which sounds useful. he worked at clifford chance and moved up the ranks. the critique would be your product will undermine all of that and have detrimental effects on the labor force as people try to move up in legal work they have to do grunt work to move up and gets a partner. >> lawyers all around the world will celebrate what i am doing because i did a lot of that grunt work and i'm telling you i do not miss it. the work we are automating is the kind of work that frankly does not teach you much in my opinion and it is the kind of work people should not really be

doing and i think there will be a more exciting future for the next generation of lawyers where they are doing more complex work. we can take the world's laws and help encode them in ai so the job becomes more human. i think it is exciting. >> we will have fewer lawyers as a result? >> that's right. we will not need as many people to do the job of the economy keeps growing. we are still going to need lawyers and to hire them fresh out of university so there is still a career there for people. >> thanks for your time, richard. let's get back to the story in france with breaking lines coming through from marine le pen, saying she will and they will topple the prime minister of france unless there is a miracle so again the party chief saying they will topple the

prime minister and less there is a miracle. this is the party chief speaking on rt l. the euro trading at 105 after marine le pen hinted strongly that she is firming her stance on this negotiation and after the finance minister of france reporting to michel barnier said they would not be blackmailed over this budget. concessions have been made but the finance minister suggesting to us there would be no further concessions and we saw the reaction from the -- from marine le pen to that over the weekend so we continue to monitor the story for you. spending for black friday grew at a faster pace this year. let's bring in mustapha.

what do the details tell us? >> black friday sales are up but once you strip out inflation it is not that impressive so i think the consumer is perhaps resilient and cautious and if we zoom in to a company like best buy than they were seeing more foot traffic on the big day but because they had been discounting so aggressively that will not necessarily translate into higher sales. >> so a resilient but cautious consumer and we will see what lays out today and whether the theme continues. thank you for that on black friday and what it told us.

plenty more coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

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>> welcome back. we continue to keep an eye on what's happening with france and we have had some lines crossing from the national rally suggesting it will be a miracle if michel barnier manages to get the budget through without further concessions so it seems like we are reaching a crisis point at least when it comes to that contentious issue of how to prioritize spending can so we focus on sovereign debt we saw the yield spread increasing by about 90 basis points but we also keep an eye on the impacts for some of those major french

corporate's so we will be looking at the likes of airbus and l'oreal. the question of france is the key story for these markets. let's flip the board and look ahead to what will become an important story, nonfarm payrolls out of the u.s.. that is the expected print for november. you get boeing workers coming back after the strike. this 12,000 number for october is expected to be revised up to around 50,000. you had the hurricane season as well. that will keep that print of around 200,000 but still not a particularly strong number given all the factors taken into account and they see the unemployment rate going up. let's have a look at what this has to do with the economic

growth of the u.s. you have the data coming through and we will get more that will build out this picture but this is a story of relative resilience and we monitor the labor market on friday with expectations around the fed 60% chance they go again this month with another cut and you get to 4% on the benchmark rate around july 2025. we will be speaking with the european banking authority chairman after they publish the results of the transparency exercise and risk assessment report coming up. the opening trade is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

it's our son, he is always up in our business. it's the verizon 5g home internet i got us. oh... he used to be a competitive gamer but with the higher lag, he can't keep up with his squad. so now we're his “squad”. what are kevin's plans for the fall? he's going to college. out of state, yeah. -yeah in the fall. change of plans, i've decided to stay local. oh excellent! oh that's great! why would i ever leave this? -aw! we will do anything to get him gaming again. you and kevin need to fix this internet situation. heard my name! i swear to god, kevin! -we told you to wait in the car. everyone in my old squad has xfinity. less lag, better gaming! i'm gonna need to charge you for three people.

anna: good morning from london. i am anna edwards alongside guy johnson and tom mackenzie.