scarlett: welcome to "bloomberg markets." this friday at midday, the s&p 500 is at a record high but that is nothing new, it is headed for its third straight week of gains. you are seeing some gains and treasuries, yields lower on the short end here on a jobs report that has kept hope alive for a december rate cut. stocks and bonds moving higher on that. oil prices down 1.25%. supply concerns over the longer

term triggering some technical selling. bitcoin, in the green for now, struggling to return to its $100,000 level after breaking through it, trumped naming david sachs as his new crypto czar. we will get into that a bit later on. first, let's go back to equities and check on some intraday movers. abigail: we have a rally for social media names including snape, maddock, the overall index, as earlier today tiktok lost of the band in terms of being able to be here in the u.s.. they are still under pressure to sell, january 19 deadline, to sell. this may not be the end of the story, though. this could still go, they could try to appeal to the supreme court in president-elect trump opposes the van. while the band is in effect, potentially we see some of that competition gaining on the possibility that tiktok will go

away in the u.s.. turning to a big winner, donkey sign boosted, the beat was modest, better by 2% to 3% with a massive spike higher on the day. up 27% after climbing 77% year-to-date. looks like investors really like the fact that they boosted their revenue. finally, turning to a truly outside mover on a comparative basis, take a look at the shares of lululemon, up 18.5 percent. this is their best day since 2008 and it has to do with a good quarter and an outlook around their overseas doing better overseas. so many mixed signals around the consumer in the u.s., lululemon is breaking that up a bit by finding some overseas strength. alto beauty has had a lot of mixed results, but investors are liking that beat and boost

quarter, having to do with racing the lower end of the guide. given the mixed consumers in the u.s., investors are taking that with the stock up 10%. scarlet: and we will have more on retail later in the program, but for now we are going back to the u.s. jobs report. economists and investors were laser focused on that big data point this morning, including mohamed el-erian. >> the fact that the unemployment rate went up means that the fed will be comfortable cutting by 25 basis points. it means the market will increase the probability of this happening. scarlet: joining us for more is bloomberg's stuart paul. unemployment rate going up, a little bit more than expected. what is interesting here is you have to go out to two decimal points to get the other story. tell us what it is. >> we saw employment and household surveys at shrinking

by more than the label of force. the number of unemployed workers increased by just about 10,000 more people. that would be enough to round the unemployment rate up to 4.3%, that's the high level we saw in july that triggered one of those indicators that there is a forthcoming deterioration in economic conditions. scarlet: is a recession back in the cards necessarily? >> i don't think we want to say that, but we are looking at the economic activity propelling it. one thing it does indicate is that it is going to get fed speakers and officials to perk up a bit and keep that 25 basis point cut in play when they meet on the 18th. scarlet: let's go back to the main number of the jobs report, the change to nonfarm payroll. some economists saying you have to look past at the way you had to look past the october number. what is the take away when you

look at those in aggregate? >> some of it was rebounded hiring. the resolution of the strike at boeing helped and the jobs boosting the headline quite a little bit. we think that trend payroll growth right now is around 140,000 jobs added per month. clearly, that's not enough to keep the unemployment rate in check. why? we think payroll growth is being overstated by 100,000 jobs per month. once we get those revisions next year, we will see the pace of hiring averaging 40,000 to 50,000 jobs per month with several months recently where hiring has been barely positive and in fact even negative. scarlet: with the unemployment rate ticking higher, you said it keeps hope alive for a december rate cut. how does it set up how the fed thinks about the labor market for 2025 and therefore how they project rates to move?

>> the real thing is dissecting it into two different parts. first, relative health. then trajectory where the labor market is undoubtedly cooling. what is the fed going to want to do? continue cutting rates and get back towards neutral. policy makers are calling rates somewhat restrictive. where we think they will go? there will probably be a quarterly cadence of quarter-point rate cuts next year. scarlet: we can see after the first half of next year the attention shifting to the cpi and ppi reports. what does this mean in terms of market expectations for those data points? >> what matters most now with the jobs report behind us is core cpi inflation. registering 0.3% on a monthly annual basis at three point 3%. too high for comfort for the fed. it is keeping a pause and play.

the unemployment rate ticking up gets everybody excited about a quarter-point cut. looking ahead to inflation remaining elevated, the door is still wide open for it to remain on pause and that is slightly favored because of the slowing pace of disinflation. scarlet: with a tug-of-war between maximum employment and other mandates. stuart paul, appreciate it. moving on to the trump economic team, it's taking shape. he chose paul atkins to lead the sec and last night we learned david sachs will serve as the first ai crypto's are, underscoring the trump enthusiasm for the crypto sector. adriana has been following the trump moves closely and she joins us now. so, who exactly is david sachs, this new ai crypto's are? i heard he is a part of the ai

mafia, venture capitalist with softer businesses there. is he intimately tied to crypto? >> the important thing to note is that he has been supportive of crypto for a while now, as well as in the ai space. we had reported previously that there would be a crypto's are. it was not clear at the time if that would be combined with this ai's are role. we now know that it is. again, that points to how far, you know, these emerging technologies, how big a role they will play with the trump administration. this is really capping what has been a turnaround because of his relationship with crypto. right? originally he was skeptical of it. on the campaign trail he said he would fire gensler. now we have adkins, supportive of it. sachs, like him, a supporter financially of trump, supporter

of crypto, really helping to bring in not just the crypto industry to donate, but also younger men in general. abigail: absolutely -- scarlet: absolutely, that is part of what we saw pushing him into electoral victory. from what i understand, this is not a paid full-time position where he has to publicly disclose and divest holdings, but more of a special or -- special advisory role. how do they then prevent potential conflicts of interest? >> as you mentioned, what he has been appointed to, this presidential council of advisors, that's known as a federal advisory committee essentially set up so that people with private sector expertise can advise the government without divesting assets. so, this is something where, and we have reached out, where he will not set -- step down from

craft. there will be speculation as to how to maintain the, you know, the separation. to make sure that there aren't any instances of him having those conflicts of interest. that is something we will continue to report out. as we mentioned, he will not be leaving craft. similar to muska whom he will work alongside. somewhat close to vance, someone who can speak to his influence in terms of all of these rollouts of the different appointees. scarlet: really appreciate you joining us to talk to us about david sachs to be appointed as the new ai crypto's are for the trump administration incoming. coming up, lululemon is soaring today. third quarter inc. earnings-per-share retail results coming up next in our stock of the hour.

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scarlet: this is "bloomberg markets," i'm scarlet fu. time for the stock of the hour, lululemon is rallying the most since the depths of the financial crisis of 2008 as they increase revenue guidance and report quarterly profits that beat analyst estimates with stronger international sales and a boost in the core leggings category. joining us with more, chelsea, with an outperform rating on lululemon. ending three straight quarters of declining growth, what is your confidence that this is a

true reversal rather than a pause? dana: you saw what was new, more newness is coming in the first quarter, which is encouraging. and you see both in women's and men's, leggings are doing well. leggings is the base for everything else. you go in the stores and you don't the -- see things on sale. on the website, things are out of stock. look at the traffic. it has been encouraging. i was even in there yesterday before they reported. scarlet: every time i look it feels like it still looks like 2019. dana: some of the things are different. they didn't have as much outerwear as they have today. look at the disney lululemon connect -- collection. those belt bags, a collaboration that's really working and is effective. even on the men's side, a lot of it is more casual in nature, you can wear it for working out into the office.

scarlet: within the comp sales category sales fell in overseas markets. how concerning is the underperformance of that big market? >> overall, the big market stayed flat with what it was last quarter. it is not declining more, you are still seeing margins with the strength of a full price sellthrough. take a look at the new stores they are opening, the productivity metrics continue to remain on track. scarlet: victoria's secret, when you look at those results, the stock is higher as well. revenue growing 2% this fiscal year versus the earlier forecast of decline. does the new ceo deserve credit for this or is it too early for her? >> too early. the product working now, she wasn't there to design it. late summer or early fall is when her touch on the product will be there. but her touch on the store, how it will be structured, will all

be coming into play. she is a product person, a stores person, a merchant. she walks the store and likes to see what the customers at sea. the fact that the intimates business was a positive when the whole segment was down is encouraging. whether it is pink going back to campus or bringing the sports bra collection back, or frankly even that fashion show, regaining awareness. scarlet: i wanted to ask you about that. a lot of things associated with it are not positive. >> it's a different world from today. what she did in terms of raising the profile of the former models associated with that, that was not her call, it was underway when she arrived. whatever it is, it worked. if they have other ones, that is still to be decided. scarlet: you follow all to

beauty, they raised their guidance for comparable sales. you noted, as have others, these results show the ability of management to adapt and control. what did they control this quarter that they did not have a handle on in previous quarters? >> when you look at their products, looking at the proceeds business, they are able to capture more of the mass customer. i also think that their loyalty numbers which continue to grow are effective. they came back for the services, also. it's on a better path from what it was, even with the increased competitive environment. scarlet: a lot of promotions, did that erode their gross margin? >> know, they were able to management -- manage it and that is something they will utilize if they need. scarlet: always appreciate your insight into all of these merchants coming over from the chelsea advisory group. caroline stein, on what's next

for that industry of restaurants after a tough year for certain chains. this is bloomberg. ♪

scarlet: selected consumer spending taking its toll and one area feeling the brunt, the restaurant industry, large chains filing for bankruptcy at the fastest pace since the be -- beginning of the pandemic. joining us now, caroline styne of the restaurant coalition. what is it about this moment leading to so many filings of bankruptcy and protection when restaurants, the ones that survived pandemic, seemed to be enjoying upswing? dana: -- caroline: thank you for having me. yes, it's been a crazy time in the restaurant industry as a whole. people were dining out with gusto after pandemic, ordering in, delivery was up. delivery companies really thrived.

then in the post-covid world, things really changed dramatically. dining habits changed. confidence in the future and in their finances changed quite a bit. just the behavior of people altogether. more people staying home versus going out. late night dining has been down dramatically. big chains are declaring bankruptcy and a lot of small restaurants are closing as well. there's a lot to worry about. food inflation and potentially tariffs on imports. my question to you is to what extent can restaurants stockpile any of what they need, particularly nonperishable items? i know a lot of people are definitely thinking about that and are trying to stock up on all of these items that are going to be more and more difficult to get their hands on. or at least, they will be more and more expensive as these

tariffs become implemented. you can do that to a degree, but when you are already struggling financially, it is hard to kind of outlay that money to stockpile all of that and then hold onto it in the hopes of selling it. scarlet: good point. plus storing it somewhere is an issue. caroline: always. scarlet: what does the expected crackdown on illegal immigrants mean for how restaurants manage their workforce? even if there are documented employees, there is an impact on the flow for workers and i wonder how much restaurants can prep for that as opposed to reacting to it simply in the moment. caroline: it affects not only us but the agriculture we rely on. you know, all the vineyards, all the vegetable farmers, excuse me , and produce farmers. their costs are going to increase because their labor is

going to be much more expensive if they can even find it. and it affects us, we do our due diligence in terms of immigration, but it is -- it's a very scary time for people in the restaurant industry and for that kind of sector of the workforce that they are feeling very insecure about their future here and what is going to happen to them in there is a lot of fear. scarlet: insecurity, fear, confidence, it all plays into how much people are willing to spend on discretionary items, including eating out. i know the restaurants are sensitive to that. having said that, consumer sentiment 2024 is very much tied to political affiliation with republicans feeling more confident after the election and i wonder if that means certain geographic pockets of the country will keep spending on restaurants and how restaurant companies can manage around that were plan for that.

caroline: countrywide i think you can see the pockets of areas that are republican dominated are thriving. those that are not are having a harder time. we have even seen it in our own restaurants, restaurants and more conservative areas have seen an increase in business postelection. it's been, it's interesting to see what's going to happen. i know that political group feels bullish on the future. when these tariffs come into play with all of these other financial issues, as they start to impact our menu pricing and our ability to operate, it will be interesting to see what happens. scarlet: i suppose in terms of looking ahead to what could come, one piece of good news is what the president-elect set on the campaign trail, tips no longer be taxed. our conversations picking up around that in the restaurant

industry? bikes that's a really interesting topic and there is a lot of conversation going on about it. it's interesting, on the surface it seems like a great thing for restaurant workers, they will of course have more money in their pockets. but after doing a lot of surveying, a lot of people in those jobs are more worried about their futures in their ability to have social security there for them when they need it in the future. so, paying into their futures comes into play and that's an interesting idea and concept. not everyone who would benefit from that necessarily wants it. scarlet: people continuing to worry about longer-term impacts as opposed to the short-term boost of nontax tips. really interesting. caroline stein, thank you for joining us. as we had to commercial break, quick note, the s&p 500 gaining .2%, heading for its third straight week of gains.

the russell 2000 gaining .3%. the nasdaq, doing the best of the bunch. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ it's our son, he is always up in our business. it's the verizon 5g home internet i got us. oh... he used to be a competitive gamer but with the higher lag, he can't keep up with his squad. so now we're his “squad”. what are kevin's plans for the fall? he's going to college. out of state, yeah. -yeah in the fall. change of plans, i've decided to stay local. oh excellent! oh that's great! why would i ever leave this? -aw! we will do anything to get him gaming again. you and kevin need to fix this internet situation. heard my name! i swear to god, kevin! -we told you to wait in the car. everyone in my old squad has xfinity. less lag, better gaming! i'm gonna need to charge you for three people.

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♪ joe: the job market points us back to the landing. welcome to the faster show and politics. after the november jobs report brings us to perils number and a slightly high unemployment rate we will dig into the print with molly smith with questions on the economy and the fed with catherine edwards. job's day driving the markets. also, a federal appeals court upholding the divest or ban tiktok law. we will talk about this with bloomberg's mike shepard, with insights from democratic congressman jim himes, of connecticut and analysis from our signature panel. here on the friday edition, rick davis and jeanne sheehan zaino, bill burck politics contributors will be with us. we start this hour with important numbers, stronger-than-expected and certainly a bus back from last