lizzy: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe". i'm lizzy burden in london. a power vacuum in syria, after revels deposed bashar al-assad forcing him to flee to russia. in the u.s. strikes dozens of

isis targets. south korean stocks lead declines in asia with president yoon facing more calls to resign and a potential travel ban. china inflation eases ahead of a key economic meeting. president-elect donald trump has no plans to replace fed chair jay powell when he takes office next month. lizzy: a very good morning. welcome to a new week, monday the ninth of december, it is said to be a busy week for central banks against a backdrop of political instability around the world. we have the s&p 500 notching a new record. the 57th record of the year on friday off the back of that jobs report spurning bets for a december fed rate cut.

we got futures currently pointing lower but pretty flat stateside. in europe a mixed picture but slightly lower on the euro stoxx 50. a risk off mood. flipping to the cross as it picture, all eyes turned to the u.s. cpi print on wednesday. is this going to nail on that december fed cut? we have the 10-year treasury at 4.13%. euro-dollar a touch weaker lower 0.3%. this with the risk off mood given what is happening in syria. that is pushing up brent, oil trading higher 0.6% at $71 a barrel. bitcoin just shy of that $100,000 mark it hit last week. we will get into that with the binance ceo later in the program. the latest in syria. bashar al-assad having landed in moscow after islamist-led forces entered the capital on saturday

evening.ending more than half a century of his family's role. is toppling comes after more than a decade of war. 600,000 deaths and the world's worst refugee crisis since world war ii. >> a fundamental act of justice. a moment of historic opportunity for the long-suffering people of syria to build a better future for their proud country. is also of risk and uncertainty. lizzy: sam, i have been following your reporting over the weekend. is bad news for assad good news for the people of syria? >> overwhelmingly, they are saying it is good news for them now. you have to remember they have been suffering under this regime. this family-based regime for

over half a century. we have to remember bashar al-assad's father hafez came to power in a coup d'etat in 1970. and he built one of the most brutal regimes in the world, underpinned by repression, violence and this colt over personality. syrians rose up against his son. syria is only by name a republic. on the paper, it is a republic but could be for all intents and purposes, it is a monarchy in terms of how power has been handed over to the sun. they rose up against him and he met them with bullets. and then the popular uprising turned into war. external actors came in. a her in this death toll, anywhere from 300,000 to 5000 killed. after the population of 24 million displaced either internally or outside the country.

and 100,000 at least forcibly displaced by the regime. now that they are opening the prisons, people are wondering whether their loved ones were in prison. syrians are still getting their bearings. yes, you see the scenes of celebrations in damascus and elsewhere. millions of syrians outside syria who had been displaced and could not go back to their country also were celebrating. we have to keep that in mind that people are just coming to grips with this. lizzy: as they get their bearings, the question turns to what happens next. i wonder how strong these hts rebels are. for who else is waiting in the wings to challenge them? >> that is an excellent question. the hds, led by a man known by his nom de guerre al-jolani.

but now is using his real name. he entered damascus yesterday. he commends about 15,000 fighters. he was previously affiliated to al qaeda. his organization was called nusra front and he personally fought in iraq against the americans when he fought with al qaeda. that's what we are dealing with. but he has gone out of his way to assure the world that he has changed his colors. as kind of a proof of that, he told the prime minister who is in place now. the prime minister who had been appointed by assad in september to remain in place. the prime minister and the government to run the affairs of the country until there is an orderly transition. in the meantime, the political opposition which is all exiled, is meeting in places like

ankara, istanbul and primarily in qatar to figure out what they do. you have to remember that the political opposition outside have no power on the ground. they have to work with these fighters. then you have other factions. for instance, a group in the south that raced to damascus. it even got there ahead of the hds commander. thank you have other factions. these factions have fought each other in the past. it is really complicated. you have also the kurdish militias in the northeast that have a totally different agenda. they want autonomy for the kurds and they have been fighting other rebel factions that are backed by turkey. dizzyingly complex, but obviously, a lot of countries in the region and around the world are taking a wait and see attitude at the moment. lizzy: exactly, and israel of

course watching on. it's forces have overtly crossed into syrian territory for the first time since the 1973 october war. they passed the demilitarized border zone. how significant is that? >> hugely significant. we are hearing those reports. i'm talking to people who are confirming those reports. people in damascus last night who are saying, again, as bloomberg, we haven't confirmed this yet. they are saying there were also israeli airstrikes against a number of facilities. there is this place in central damascus called the security corridor. that is where the headquarters of all the security services. a lot of these buildings were up in flames last night. people were saying it was an israeli strike. also, the research center on the outskirts of damascus where the

regime developed chemical weapons. remember, this regime used chemical weapons against his own people starting in 2012. that facility was bombed. israeli those colluding -- israel is clearly worried about those weapons coming into the hands of those rebels it doesn't trust at the moment. lizzy: sam dagher, thank you for that excellent crucial reporting, and the context as well. let's turn to the political crisis in south korea. traders brace for volatility because of turmoil. yonhap news reported police may seek the emergency arrestor president yoon if conditions are not met. that follows this weekends failed impeachment attempt. we get more with katia dimi trieva. there is enormous pressure to step down. unions threatening to strike.

what is the latest? >> that is the big question now. it is looking increasingly unstable. his position, just in general amid all the uncertainty over the last week. we are now entering the second week of this instability in south korea. if you listen to the main party, the ppp, that is yoon's party, what they have said is he is not the one making decisions. as of sunday, it is the prime minister and the party in consultation making decisions for the country as yoon prepares his exit. the ruling main opposition party, the democratic party, are not happy with that. they say it is unconstitutional. they are looking on wednesday to have another vote seeking the impeachment of the president. they will have to try and find votes they couldn't find on saturday. the numbers are still not looking like it might add up to impeachment.

the next 24 to 48 hours we could see a lot of movement. we have heard the police launched this investigation. they are seeking to prevent yoon from leaving the country, as well as the allegations that have been made in recent days. on top of that, his own party that are saying he's not actually the one calling the shots. plus, all the protests we have seen on the ground. really incredibly volatile for president yoon and looking increasingly less likely that he will hold on to his position. lizzy: katia dmitrieva, thank you for the latest on the political situation in korea. let's get the market reaction now. avril hong in singapore with a was of the kospi, the won and broader asian markets. >> we are seeing that expectation of a protracted political crisis in south korea. that is hitting stocks in the

country today. the kosdaq, this is a small cap gauge, moving by the most since august. it is at the lowest level since april 2020. this is the early days of the pandemic. why is this significant? this is a rare signal in terms of its underperformance versus the benchmark kospi. something we really don't see. this tells us even retail investors in south korea are souring in sentiment towards the nation's stocks. they perhaps don't see quick turnaround. this is following on from what we are expecting from foreign investors. the other thing to highlight when you see underperformance, we saw this similarly in 2016 and 2017, when politicians were seeking the impeachment of another president. back then, the picture was different because korean investors have options u.s. stocks, cryptocurrencies. it doesn't bode well for korean equities. the won lowest level in the greenback in more than two years. i want to talk through china

because we did get cpi numbers that showed unexpected slowing in consumer inflation in the country. it shows you whatever policymakers have been throwing at the chinese economy in terms of stimulus is not cut it enough to revive the stoxx. where we are seeing buying is in chinese bounds. perhaps an expectation of more easing. fresh flows on the 10-year in the country. lizzy: ever hung in singapore giving a close eye on korea and china. as we broaden out our thinking on global markets, let's get to the u.s., or president elect donald trump says he has no plans to replace fed chairman jerome powell when he returns the white house. trump was speaking in an interview on nbc's "meet the press." >> i don't see it, i think if i told him to, he would. if i asked him to, he probably wouldn't, but if i told him to,

he would. >> you do have plans? >> i don't. lizzy: a spring in valerie tytel now. jay powell saying last week he doesn't expect tensions with the incoming administration. i wonder whether you believe that and whether markets are buying that? >> the fed chair will come under a lot of heat with president elect donald trump taking office in january. markets were watching that interview. the first one since he won that election for any new hints on terra policy. he was strong on tariffs when it came to canada. the lack of new news when it came to tariff announcements from donald trump. the bloomberg dollar index slightly stronger overnight. s&p futures hovering near all-time highs. they hit a new record friday after that unemployment report. u.s. 10-year yield still seeing a strong rally in treasuries, that rally friday continuing. the biggest risk event this week for u.s. assets is wednesdays u.s. cpi report.

click on, look at how u.s. inflation has moderated recently. we have seen a slight pickup in the month on month readings, which has led the three-month annualized reading to be above the 2% fed's target. many are expecting a hot print on wednesday could put that rate cut in december in question. what else we have to watch out for this week is other central bank meetings. we have a slew of them this week beginning tomorrow, we hear from the rba. we get on wednesday the bank of canada. 50 basis point jumbo cut after an uninfected rise in unemployment friday. we also hear from the central bank of brazil. thursday the ecb macroeconomic projections alongside their rate decision. and we also get the snb, the swiss national bank in social and, expected to cut as well, but the market is assuming they could be on a quicker path to get towards the easing

territory. lizzy: of course we question the value of those ecb forecasts with the uncertainty around the politics in france and germany and those trump tariffs. thank you for that lookahead. coming up, syrians celebrate the fall of bashar al-assad. we will look at the country's next chapter and which regional powers stand to lose out. and we will speak to the ceo of binance richard teng on the recent surge in bitcoin, as well as optimism around crypto regulation. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is a historic day for the middle east. the collapse of the assad

regime. the tyranny in damascus. offers great opportunity but also is fraught with significant dangers. this collapse is a direct result of our forceful action against hezbollah in iran, assad's main supporters, it set off a chain reaction of all those who want to free themselves from this tyranny and its oppression. lizzy:'s rails benjamin netanyahu in a video posted on x. i am joined for mehmet ozalp more in syria by mehmet ozalp, professor at the center for islamic studies and civilization at charles sturt university. thank you for making time. how will be assad family be remembered in syria? mehmet: unfortunately, they will be remembered as brutal tyrants. bashar al-assad and his father hafiz all assad have ruled syria for 54 years. in that time, they have

suppressed any dissent, and diverse voices. a lot of people were arrested, tortured in prisons. we are seeing examples of that when the prisons are released. and hafiz al-assad is known for 1982 razing of the whole city with rebels there, 10,000 up to 40,000 estimates have died. former president bashar al-assad could have been better. he showed promise initially but with arab spring in 2011 onwards, he chose a path of hardline suppression over dissent and opposition. as a result, more than 600,000 have died, and millions are displaced or are refugees. they will be remembered for

these major damages done to the country. lizzy: in terms of those people displaced, migration at the forefront of the political debate in europe. i'm wondering where the refugees are likely to go. who they are likely to be and how many supporters assad had? mehmet: there is an expectation that the refugees that escaped the country during assad government will return back. we have seen that in the statement of the new leadership of syria. they have put attracting back the refugees, their members citizens back to syria. we could see a reversal of refugees from europe and turkey back into syria, as syria develops and stabilizes. lizzy: hts tried to portray itself as more moderate since a break away from al qaeda in 2016.

how would you characterize the group and what is likely to unfold in syria now under its rule? mehmet: what victor say at the moment of triumph are important. usually it brings out the true nature. hts have certainly said the right things, they gave the right messages. for example, they said there will be no retribution in the country for previous regime's mistakes and sins. that is a very important time to bring stability. these people could rise up and rebel again to the new leadership. they said the right thing. they talked about reconciliation. they mentioned being tolerant to ethnic and religious minorities in the country. you have to be like that if you are going to govern syria, it is a very diverse country. they are saying the right things but we have to be cautiously optimistic, still cautious

because hts do come from al qaeda. they split in 2016, which was a long time. in a recent cnn interview the leader mohammed al-jolani said they are older and wiser, and their thoughts and views on islam have moderated. we have not seen any wrong said or done so far. of course, we don't know what the future will entail. lizzy: finally, professor, given this talk of russia, the u.s., iran by surprise, are there other countries we should be watching more carefully now? mehmet: russia and iran are the biggest losers of this conflict. completely out of syria. new players are turkey, the united states will be an important player. and through united states,

israel could put pressure on the new syrian leadership. these are the main powers. european union and nato will also be an important element. they will all be on a negotiation table at the moment to recognize the new leadership. these countries will put some conditions. lizzy: mehmet ozalp, professor at the center for islamic studies and civilization a n charles sturt university. we will speak to richard teng, ceo of binance. we will discuss bitcoin's recent rally and the impact of a trump presidency on the crypto industry. that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪

lizzy: some other stories making

use around the world. ukraine's president says 43,000 ukrainian soldiers have died since russia began its invasion in 2022. volodymyr zelenskyy posted the figure on x after donald trump claimed on truth social that ukraine had lost 400,000 soldiers. the pair met in paris on the weekend with solesky stressing the need for effective peace guarantees from kyiv's allies. president-elect trump said on his first day in office you will pardon the rioters involved in the attack on the u.s. capitol on january 6, 2021. he confirmed the news in an interview with nbc's meet the press. his comments follow president joe biden's decision to offer a pardon to his son hunter biden. you are police released new images of the suspected gunman in the killing of netted health insurance executive.

including one know of him in a taxi he used after the shooting. the suspect hailed the cap on the upper west side of manhattan soon after the attack. heading to a bus station to leave the city. omnicom is reportedly in advanced talks to buy interpublic in a deal that would create the world's largest advertising firm. the all stock transaction would value interpublic at between 13 and $14 billion. coming up, we will be speaking to the ceo of finance, the world's biggest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume. we'll discuss bitcoin's recent record rally. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ something has changed within me ♪ ♪ it's time to try defying gravity ♪ ♪ ♪

lizzy: good morning. this is "bloomberg daybreak europe."

i'm lizzy burden in london. a power vacuum in syria, after rebels depots bashar al-assad. israel moves troops to syrian territory and the u.s. strikes dozens of isis targets. south korean stocks lead declines in asia with president yoon facing more calls to resign. in china, inflation eases ahead of the key economic meeting. president-elect donald trump says he has no plans to replace fed chairman jerome powell when he takes office next month. checking in on markets as we kick off the week. it is a cautious start to this new week. the s&p 500 notching its 57th record of the year last week off the back of that u.s. jobs report, spurring bets for a december fed cut but futures in europe pointing lower now. ftse 100 futures flat to the upside. on wall street, futures flat to the downside.

if we flip over to the cross asset picture, the question as valerie tytel set out for us, is whether that u.s. cpi print on wednesday will seal the deal on that fed cut. you have treasury yields steady on the 10-year at 4.13%, euro-dollar at 1.05 handle under pressure from the fall of the assad regime in syria, partly a risk of trade. that's feeding into the oil price, branch trading $71 a barrel. and bitcoin just shy of $100,000. let's get into bitcoin now. it cross that mark last week for the first time on the optimism on the optimism that president-elect trump will support the digital asset industry. it is just shy of that. let's go to abu dhabi where i'm delighted to be joined by the ceo of the world's biggest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, that is binance's richard teng. thank you for making time for us. we have seen donald trump

picking crypto-friendly picks in the form of his ai czar and his sec chair. where does that likely change in the regulatory stance in the u.s. leave you at binance? richard: if you look at 2024, it is a landmark year. before 2024 if you told people bitcoin would hit $100,000, the etf being approved for bitcoin, solana and several others, as well as institutions. the largest asset manager in the world blackrock. i think, people would not believe you. that has come true. we have now a very crypto-friendly president in the states, extremely smart appointing an ai czar, because this purpose has the most innovative technology for the future.

abu dhabi and uae has been very insightful to start investing in ai and blockchain. we are seeing the results of those deployments in abu dhabi and uae now. countries will do well to continue to focus on this technology. we will continue to focus on our fast expanding user base. close to one million users globally now, 70 million on board. lizzy: but of course, binance has a monetary hit by the doj and the u.s. financial crimes enforcement network. would you be looking to press the trump administration to shorten or terminate the monitorships given the president-elect's preference for looser crypto regulation? richard: any of those discussion is new.

my belief that compliance is the way to go. binance has always been a user-first organization. given that regulations will be much clearer. we have the ability to invest very heavily in compliance space. last year alone, we invested 250 million u.s. dollars just on our complaints program. more than 30% increase compared to be here before. more than 20 different jurisdictions of licenses and regulators. places like india and argentina. we are working with global policymakers and lawmakers to support the crypto journey and deployment. we will continue to work closely with u.s. monitors on that front to see whether we can enhance the program further.

it is a good competitive advantage. we are able to invest in places our competitors are not able to invest. lizzy: are you looking to reenter that u.s. market more forcefully? if they introduce a stablecoin framework, would you be reviving busd? or would you launch a similar token perhaps? richard: globally, we are supporting crypto adoption. stablecoins, innovation, cross-border payment, etc., etc. whether we reenter the u.s. market, that is a discussion. as of now we are focusing on global deployment. we are growing very quickly and very happy with the progress. this year alone, if you look at the net inflows into binance, more than 20 billion. if you put our net inflows

versus the next 10 largest exchanges put together, we are 40% more than the 10 largest. we have seen phenomenal growth, a lot of new institutions being on boarded. with the u.s. going to announce the strategic reserve, i do believe that many countries around the world will start to deploy. not only countries, sovereign wealth funds, institutions, endowments. they will start allocating to this space so the future is it's really bright. lizzy: you have been in post for just over a year now. i wonder what you would say the biggest changes are you have lamented in that time. as you look ahead, are you adding new independent advisors to your board? richard: we have a strong board of directors today. we have an independent chairman. we are in a good place in terms

of structure. we have moved from a founder, ceo company to a board company. the ceo will work closely with the board of directors to chart the strategy. and we will move from strength to strength. we have not only focused on our investors, our users. we invest a lot into security. i mentioned compliance. those are key areas. you see plenty of exchanges being hacked around the world. japan, india, in indonesia, and the list goes on. this is an area we focus a lot of attention to. we are the exchange that set aside more than 100 billion just to compensate users in the event of on towards event. we go beyond what many regulars

prescribed, in terms of user protection, and helping our users detect scams. helping them avoid 2.4 billion potential losses. these are areas we paid attention to his we are proud of those things. lizzy: you mentioned you are at abu dhabi finance week. what opportunities do you see in the middle east region? richard: it is huge. in uae alone, crypto adoption is close to 40%. the same theme is repeated. abu dhabi, global market, we were the first in the world to introduce a crypto regulatory framework together in 2018. we were ahead of the game then. you can see abu dhabi growing by leaps and bounds in the blockchain area as well as the ai space.

that same theme is repeated throughout the middle east in bahrain, dubai, and the rest of middle east. very young demographics, tech savvy, people understand crypto. there are many parts of middle east, south africa region where financial inclusion is low, which makes crypto becomes the only means people can make payments, get access to a bank. and they are much better off. i traveled the region quite extensively. people come up to thank me. hyper inflationary situation where the domestic fiat currency depreciated. wealth is preserved by holding onto crypto and stablecoins. i have many of these stories repeated throughout the middle east and throughout the world when i visit many of these countries. lizzy: thank you so much, richard teng ceo of binance,

lovely to have you with us on the program from abu dhabi finance week. getting back to south korea, where we have seen that political turmoil. the breaking is that the president yoon has been banned from leaving the nation. this is according to yonhap. he is under investigation by the south korean police over his brief declaration of martial law. you saw the kospi closing down 2.8%. this is putting pressure now on the won, weaker 0.9% against the dollar. we can go back to the story of syria. over the weekend, we saw bashar al-assad fleeing to moscow after rebels advanced into damascus and toppled his regime. israel moved troops into syrian territory while u.s. airstrikes have hit ice's targets, reflecting concerns about upheaval in the middle east amid that power vacuum. we have world leaders grappling with the fall of the dynasty

after more than 50 years in power. and europe is likely to be affected. we can join oliver crook now in brussels. of course, it was this area and conflict that led to the rise of german's afd party. with the demise of assad,, the question of where the refugees go back on the table, what has been the european reaction? >> it is a very interesting and complex situation being observed closely by a lot of leaders. and the foreign ministers across europe. over all the reaction has been one that is fairly ubiquitous. we heard from kia collis, the represented firm in the european commission will hold that title the next five years, saying the end of assad's dictatorship is a positive and long-awaited development and shows the weakness of his backers russia and iran. a sentiment that joe biden made over the weekend saying this is in part due to how weak russia and iran are.

this is very much a cautious optimism. very much wait and see mode. a lot of this will come down to mohammed al-jolani decides to proceed through things. he gave a very interesting interview to cnn just a couple of days before they toppled the assad regime or he was talking about what syria needs is institutional governance, a legal framework to deal with minority groups to treat them fairly to make sure they are protected. these are the right things to say as far as western leaders are concerned. the question is, is that his intention first of all, and second, does he have enough consolidated power to implement that in what is a fractured and complicated situation? and why the europeans are so concerned is when you look at germany, as you were alluding to, you look at the different immigrant groups within germany. number one on that list is turkey, number two is now ukraine, number three is syria, more than a million people came

from syria descended from the families that moved into germany. when you look at the timeline, the syrian civil war began in 2021, the afd was founded in 2013, merkel let a million refugees in 2015. the europeans will be looking at this very closely. potentially stability in syria could mean refugees could go back ultimately. we are here to speak to finance ministers here. we will ask whether they will take into consideration the possible costs of more refugees coming into europe. that will be part of the conversation today in brussels. lizzy: oliver crook in the ground for us ahead of that eco fin meeting. coming up on the program, bond traders are hoping for a column end to the. but a surprise jump in u.s. inflation could prove another bump in the road. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i can't guarantee anything. i can't guarantee tomorrow. but i can say that if you look at my pre-covid, we are the greatest economy in the history of our country and i had a lot of tariffs. let in particular china. and we had no inflation. lizzy: president elect donald trump speaking about u.s. tariffs on nbc's "meet the press" with kristin walker. to discuss the impact of tariffs on europe's economy i am joined by the head of economic research at st. james's place. good morning. i wonder whether you think the disinflationary impact of cheap

chinese goods being diverted to europe is going to outweigh the inflationary impact of lower taxes, slower fed cuts, and that currency impact to europe. or do you think about it completely differently? hetal: no, it is a fair framework to think about things. the form of retaliation that europe takes if tariffs are levied on europe will really matter to the economic outcomes. we have seen to some extent that the currencies adjust to reflect the possibility of tariffs. the weaker euro is actually going to increase inflation for europe in the short-term that's possible. it is difficult to know, depending on how big the tariffs are levied, where they land, and

exactly what the retaliation looks like. we know from the first term that there was a tit-for-tat tariffs but i don't know whether that is something europe would want to engage in again. it does depend on how broad-based the tariffs are. whether it is on specific goods or more of a blanket. i'm also quite worried about the starting point of the european economy at this point. the ecb can try and cut rates and keep the euro weaker anyway. but the domestic economy is quite weak right now. lizzy: but if you were on the governing council this week in frankfurt, i wonder whether you would be more worried about political turmoil in france and germany or the specter of trump tariffs? hetal: it is not an easy position to be in at the moment. in the near term, we don't know how the politics will resolve.

we have seen political instability in europe flare up and fade. for the ecb, the task right now has to be on the weaker growth. it does have some reasons not to be aggressive in cutting interest rates. we also heard this from jay powell. until we know what the tariffs situation looks like, it is difficult to react preemptively. lizzy: if we think about the bank, we get u.k. growth numbers on friday. i was speaking to swati dhingra the arch dove of the committee, listen to a snippet of what she said. >> we have a restrictive stance that is weighing on living standards and supply capacity and investments. we need to take that away to some degree, so that we get normalization back into the economy. lizzy: do you agree with her?

is the u.k. at risk of a policy error if the bank of england cuts too gradually? hetal: for me the key concern is how sticky services inflation has been. i agree with removing some restrictiveness gradually. we have been saying for a long time it is that policy normalization, getting rates back to neutral. she has been more open about where she thinks the neutral rate is. does the u.k. economy need monetary stimulus at this stage one we have this new term fiscal boost for public spending is a question mark. removal of restrictive rates can happen but probably too many

corners to look around before we can say that is appropriate. maybe second half of next year more clarity on that. for the time being, gradual normalization is the part i agree with. lizzy: the question of the extent to which tax rises on employers are passed on to consumers. hetal mehta, head of economic research at st. james's place. lovely treat may i say. now to another top interview. ubs's ceo sergio ermatti said rising tariffs and global conflicts could increase risks in financial markets next year. he was speaking at the abu dhabi finance week where he weighed in on the european banking system. >> it seems that europe is much more preoccupied at country level to address their own political worries. there is less focus on the

european project. it looks like a very good piece of work that has very good ideas. but it is unlikely to be implement it in the short-term. lizzy: the ubs ceo sergio ermatti speaking to bloomberg's joumanna bercetche. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

lizzy: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak europe." let's set you up with a couple of charts from the terminal. we have the eco fin meeting in brussels. a big topic will be ukraine. what's next and what does it mean for defense companies? eu defense companies are up nearly 60% in 2024. this eco fin meeting is the

first time a u.k. chancellor has attended since brexit. when is the u.k. going to announce the deadline to spend 2.5 percent of gdp on defense? the u.k. defense secretary said the spring but that is not the certainty these companies want or that donald trump wants either. that's the geopolitics. the central banking picture. it is a busy week. the ecb decision in frankfurt on thursday. markets have reduced the outlook of a half-point cut, not just at the upcoming meeting but the one after it as well. ecb officials say a jumbo cut would reek of panic, but take a look at the weakness in our next chart in germany. industrial production numbers missing all estimates on friday. the weakest since covid 2020. how much are trump tariffs going to weigh on that growth picture even more? a big question ahead of that

meeting but right here on bloomberg tv, stick with this because at 9:30 a.m. u.k. time, we will bring an exclusive interview with the ceo of audemars piguet on the outlook for the luxury watch market. tomorrow bloomberg television will bring you live coverage of our inaugural women, money and power event convening the most influential voices in finance from around the world to discuss the consequential themes facing the future of business. the opening trade coming up next, anna, kriti and guy taking you through the market open stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ ♪ ♪ something has changed within me ♪ ♪ it's time to try defying gravity ♪ ♪ ♪

i don't think they have a choice because the u.s. and china have already started the race and you

don't need to follow. >> what does it mean for individual countries within europe? >> you can have more control and less growth or less control and more growth. if countries trust each other more and more european champions, growth is going to be better. the welfare is going to be better but there is going to be less control at the national level. right now each european country wants to have its own companies and the question are you willing to surrender some of this control to european firms which are going to be more productive but you are going to have less control at the national level? >> good morning from london. i'm anna edwards alongside guy johnson and kriti group attachment assad knees syria to